Life in OUR America, Volume 2, The Livyjr Files Options

[theglobalchinese]

Greenspan: Major budget action needed MarketWatch

[Livyjr]

Greenspan: Major budget action needed MarketWatch

Ah, my old friend, theglobalchinese!

Thank you for leaving us this article to ponder!

I'm just returning from another thread where I was quoting that old Chinese proverb of "May we always live in interesting times!"

And do we ever!

[Livyjr]

Ah, my old friend, theglobalchinese!

Thank you for leaving us this article to ponder!

Good old Alan Greenspan, what a "dancer" that man is!

The electric glide, the mamba, the cha-cha, the boo-ga-loo, the dirty dog, the mashed potatoes; why, he is the master of them all, and you can never really tell exactly where he is with any of them, since he can slide and shimmy all over the place with such ease and grace!

"OH, did I say that?"

"Well, let me say this instead!"

And such was the case with OUR Alan when he threw his considerable support behind George W. Bush's tax cuts for the rich and greedy that have since not only eaten up our nation's surplus, BUT have pushed us over into a huge deficit, which Alan, with his dancer's ease, is now issuing warnings against!

"OH, did I say that?"

"Well, okay, yes, I really did!"

"But now, let me say this instead!"

Gobbledy-Gook, and Alan is a master at it.

And who gets the bill?

Why, need you guess?

Us, of course!

After all, who else is stupid enough?

[Livyjr]

And since I am in here somewhat early today, I have a bunch of "house-keeping" matters to tend to, in order to bring things more up to date than I have been able to these last couple of days, and since theglobalchinese has brought the budget deficit matter to OUR attention, this next story is directly relevant, as it helps explain where a good part of this huge deficit is really coming from:

Politics - U. S. Congress

"Senate Set to OK $81B War Spending Bill"

45 minutes ago

By LIZ SIDOTI, Associated Press Writer

WASHINGTON - The Senate moved toward approving $81 billion for wars in Iraq and Afghanistan on Thursday in a measure that would push the total cost of combat and reconstruction past $300 billion.

Both the Senate and House versions of the measure would give President Bush much of the money he requested, but the chambers differ over what portion should go to military operations versus other assistance.

Immigration changes, a U.S. embassy in Baghdad, military death benefits and an aircraft carrier are among the many other issues of conflict that will have to be sorted out by Senate and House negotiators.

Congressional negotiators are expected to act quickly to send the president a final bill.

The Pentagon says it needs the money by the first week of May.

Overall, the Senate version would cost roughly $81 billion, less than the $81.4 billion the House approved and the $81.9 billion Bush requested.

The legislation is the fifth emergency spending package Congress has passed for wars since the terror attacks on Sept. 11, 2001.

It would put the overall cost of combat and reconstruction efforts in Iraq and Afghanistan — as well as Pentagon operations against terrorists worldwide — past $300 billion.

The nonpartisan Congressional Research Service, which writes reports for Congress, says lawmakers previously approved $228 billion.

The latest money is to last through the end of this fiscal year, Sept. 30.

Pentagon officials have said they will have to ask for more money for 2006.

In both chambers, lawmakers struggled to give troops whatever they needed while only paying for projects deemed urgent.

They were leaving other items to be dealt with in the regular budget for the fiscal year that starts Oct. 1 and, in doing so, sending a message to the White House that it can't expect a rubber stamp from Congress on its emergency war-spending requests.

Still, as Bush requested, the bulk of the money would go to the Pentagon.

The Army and the Marine Corps, the two service branches doing most of the fighting, would get the most.

The House bill would add money to the president's request for defense expenses but the Senate's bill would not.

Instead, the Senate version would restore some money the House cut for foreign assistance and State Department programs.

The Senate bill also would fund a sprawling U.S. embassy in Baghdad.

The House bill would not.

Unlike the House, the Senate tacked on a requirement that the Pentagon give Congress reports every three months on how many Iraqi security forces are trained and how many U.S. troops are needed.

The Senate also added a provision that would require the Pentagon to keep the Navy's fleet of 12 aircraft carriers intact.

The Pentagon had proposed scrapping one carrier to save money.

The Senate version also would boost financial benefits for the families of soldiers killed, regardless of whether the deaths occurred in combat.

The House version limits the extra money to survivors of those killed in combat-related deaths only.

Perhaps one of the most contentious issues negotiators will face is whether to include immigration overhaul measures in the final bill.

The House included some, but after a lengthy debate, the Senate opted to take up immigration at another time.
___

On the Net:

Defense Department: http://www.defense.gov

White House: http://www.whitehouse.gov

[Livyjr]

Politics - U. S. Congress

"Senate Set to OK $81B War Spending Bill"

By LIZ SIDOTI, Associated Press Writer

WASHINGTON - The Senate moved toward approving $81 billion for wars in Iraq and Afghanistan on Thursday in a measure that would push the total cost of combat and reconstruction past $300 billion.

They were leaving other items to be dealt with in the regular budget for the fiscal year that starts Oct. 1 and, in doing so, sending a message to the White House that it can't expect a rubber stamp from Congress on its emergency war-spending requests.

The Senate bill also would fund a sprawling U.S. embassy in Baghdad.

SO!

$300 BILLION!

And what's that, really?

A drop in the bucket, isn't it?

Just a lousy $300 BILLION!

That's spare change for a poor man in New York City, isn't it?

Doesn't everybody have a spare $300 BILLION laying around their house somewhere?

And what on earth have we gained from the expenditure of this $300 BILLION?

Does anyone know, or even have a clue?

[Livyjr]

SO!

$300 BILLION!

And what on earth have we gained from the expenditure of this $300 BILLION?

Does anyone know, or even have a clue?

How about, "DO OUR POLITICIANS IN WASHINGTON HAVE A CLUE?", and that answer is likely not:

Politics - washingtonpost.com

"Economic Worries Aren't Resonating on Hill"

Thu Apr 21, 7:41 AM ET

By Jonathan Weisman and Dan Balz, Washington Post Staff Writers

Inflation and interest rates are rising, stock values have plunged, a tank of gas induces sticker shock, and for nearly a year, wages have failed to keep up with the cost of living.

Yet in Washington, the political class has been consumed with the death of a brain-damaged woman in Florida, the ethics of the House majority leader, and the fate of the Senate filibuster.

The disconnect between pocketbook concerns of ordinary Americans and the preoccupations of their politicians has helped send President Bush's approval ratings on the economy down, while breeding discontent with Congress.

The problem has yet to grow into a political wave that could sweep significant numbers of lawmakers from power next year, but both parties face risks if they fail to pivot their attention to economic issues.

"There is a lot of frustration," said Rep. Vernon Ehlers ® on Tuesday, as he was returning from his district in western Michigan.

Republican leaders "need some seats from the Midwest and Northeast to maintain a majority, and if we continue at the rate we're going, we may well lose a few seats."

Few economists would say the nation is at risk of slipping back into recession, but most believe the United States is back in a "soft patch."

Inflation jumped 0.6 percent in March, the Labor Department said yesterday, the biggest price surge in five months.

The 115-point plunge that followed the inflation announcement brought the Dow Jones Industrial Average to its lowest level of the year, 842 points below the height it reached in late December, when Wall Street rallied after Bush's reelection.

An average gallon of unleaded gasoline cost $2.22 yesterday, 27 cents higher than election week.

Perhaps most important, wages are not keeping up with prices.

Adjusted for inflation, average weekly earnings fell by 0.3 percent from February to March, the Labor Department reported yesterday.

Inflation-adjusted hourly wages last month were a half-percent lower than a year ago.

Real weekly earnings have not risen in four years.

"Pretty much all round, March now looks like a lousy month for the U.S. economy," J.P. Morgan Chase economists warned clients this week.

The Washington Post/ABC News Consumer Comfort Index, released Tuesday, climbed two points from last week's 2005 low, but it is still down seven points over the past month.

Nearly half of those polled this month say the economy is getting worse, the most negative rating in two years of monthly polls.

"People feel vulnerable and besieged," said Lawrence Mishel, president of the labor-oriented Economic Policy Institute, "and they don't hear anybody talking about it."

Yet the only economic bills signed into law this year have tilted against the little guy: Legislation that restricts class-action lawsuits, and a major rewrite of the nation's bankruptcy laws, signed yesterday, that will make it harder for debt-ridden Americans to wipe out their obligations.

The Washington area has been insulated from some of the current economic problems.

Gasoline prices here have risen as rapidly as elsewhere, but the area has a booming real estate market and strong job growth.

Beyond the Beltway, the real curiosity is why the economy has not become a more significant political issue this spring.

One reason may be the media's preoccupation with other news: the deaths of Pope John Paul II and Terri Schiavo, and debates about the future of Social Security and the federal judiciary.

Another may be the degree to which partisanship rather than the actual state of the economy shapes attitudes toward Bush's performance.

Republican pollster Bill McInturff said that attitudes about Bush are generally fixed -- with Republicans overwhelmingly supportive and Democrats overwhelmingly opposed -- and affected primarily by terrorism and security.

Therefore economic changes have less impact on this administration than past administrations.

Still, there is evidence that the public may be paying closer attention to economic issues, particularly rising gasoline prices, than politicians in Washington realize.

The most recent NBC News-Wall Street Journal poll found that gasoline prices ranked second behind Schiavo as the most closely followed story during late March.

Ehlers said he has been getting an earful from constituents, angered by gas prices, frightened by the latest layoff announcement, this one from the Grand Rapids-based office furniture giant Steelcase Inc., and frustrated by Congress's inattention.

The negative reaction to Congress's intervention in the Schiavo case was particularly jarring, Ehlers said.

"Many are rather upset at the Terri Schiavo issue," he said, even "moderately pro-life" voters.

"I'm getting a lot of the, 'Why are you spending time on that when we don't have jobs?' type of thing."

In Michigan, jobs and the economy have vaulted to the No. 1 concern of 34 percent of voters, with the closest other issues, health care and education, at a distant 15 percent, said Ed Sarpolus, an independent Michigan pollster.

"I haven't seen anything like that since the early '90s and crime," he said.

Michigan is not isolated.

A Des Moines Register poll released Sunday found Bush's approval rating in Iowa down to 42 percent, the lowest of his presidency.

Only 24 percent of Iowans approved of his handling of the federal budget, 26 percent approved of his efforts to change Social Security and 36 percent approved of his handling of the economy.

"There are serious pocketbook issues lurking in America," said Rep. Jim Leach (R- Iowa).

Democratic pollster Peter Hart, who conducted the NBC poll with McInturff, said gas prices and other economic indicators have directly contributed to pessimistic views about the state of the country, which have been generally negative in their survey for almost two years.

If gas prices stay high and the market remains sluggish, the economy could mushroom into a dominant issue in next year's midterm elections.

"In terms of what they're looking for out of Washington and the president and Congress, [people] are expecting some policy that will address this issue [gas prices]," said GOP pollster David Winston.

"It doesn't have to happen tomorrow, but they expect to see some progress being made."

Bush addressed rising gas prices in a speech yesterday, calling again for Congress to pass his long-stalled energy package.

But in an interview with CNBC's Ron Insana earlier this week, he acknowledged he has no short-term fix for energy prices.

"It took us a while to get to where we are today, and it's going to take us a while to become less dependent on foreign sources of energy," Bush said.

"Even signing an energy bill, you don't have an instant fix."

Democrats have been slow to seize on the economy, focusing on Social Security plan, attacking House Majority Leader Tom DeLay (R-Tex.) and a Senate showdown over filibustering judicial nominations.

But they weighed in yesterday, charging that the Energy Department had estimated last year that the GOP energy bill would raise gas prices by an average of 3 cents a gallon.

Democratic strategist Geoffrey Garin said Democrats should be working harder to make the case that Republicans are ignoring pocketbook issues while they pursue changes in the judiciary or try to protect DeLay.

"The developing story line is about an arrogant Republican majority that's lost touch with what's important," he said.

"For Democrats to convey that point, they have to invest a lot of time and energy."

Winston said the economy -- particularly gas prices and their impact on income -- represents a thorny problem for the GOP, but one with significant dividends if the party rises to the challenge.

"It's a unique opportunity for Republicans if we can solve it," he said, "and it can be difficult for Republicans if we can't."

[Livyjr]

How about, "DO OUR POLITICIANS IN WASHINGTON HAVE A CLUE?", and that answer is likely not:

Politics - washingtonpost.com

"Economic Worries Aren't Resonating on Hill"

Thu Apr 21, 7:41 AM ET 

By Jonathan Weisman and Dan Balz, Washington Post Staff Writers

Inflation and interest rates are rising, stock values have plunged, a tank of gas induces sticker shock, and for nearly a year, wages have failed to keep up with the cost of living.

Yet in Washington, the political class has been consumed with the death of a brain-damaged woman in Florida, the ethics of the House majority leader, and the fate of the Senate filibuster.

Democratic strategist Geoffrey Garin said Democrats should be working harder to make the case that Republicans are ignoring pocketbook issues while they pursue changes in the judiciary or try to protect DeLay.

"The developing story line is about an arrogant Republican majority that's lost touch with what's important," he said.

And while we are on this subject of the economy, and OUR Congress' seeming inability and failure to grasp whether we do or don't really even have one, here is another companion article to this issue of OUR economy, this one from Wednesday, April 20, 2005:

Business - AP Economic Figures

"Inflation Surge Is Biggest in Five Months"

By MARTIN CRUTSINGER, AP Economics Writer

WASHINGTON - Consumer prices jumped 0.6 percent in March, the biggest inflation surge in five months, as the costs of energy, clothing and airline fares all rose sharply.

The Labor Department said last month's increase in the Consumer Price Index, the most closely watched inflation gauge, followed a 0.4 percent rise in February and left consumer inflation rising at an annual rate of 4.3 percent in the first three months of this year.

That was a full percentage point above the 3.3 percent rise in prices for all of 2004.

The new report showed that even outside of food and energy, there were significant price pressures last month.

The so-called core rate of inflation rose by a worrisome 0.4 percent in March, the largest jump in 2 1/2 years and double what economists had expected.

It reflected higher prices for clothing, hotel rooms, airline tickets and medical care.

The government's new report on inflation showed significantly higher price pressures than had been observed in Tuesday's report on wholesale inflation, which showed a similar overall increase of 0.7 percent, reflecting a sharp jump in energy prices, but only a tiny 0.1 percent increase in prices outside of energy and food.

Economists said the new inflation report was likely to raise worries at the Federal Reserve because of price pressures becoming evident outside of the energy area.

The Fed has been raising interest rates at a gradual pace of small quarter-point moves since June of last year.

The higher inflation pressures are coming at a time when a number of reports in recent weeks have shown economic weakness, from a disappointing employment rise in March to lower-than-expected retail sales.

"We are getting slower growth and higher inflation numbers."

"The Fed is caught," said David Wyss, chief economist at Standard & Poor's in New York.

"The Fed would like to keep interest rates low to keep the economy moving but on the other hand they have to fight against inflation."

Wyss predicted that the central bank would raise rates another quarter-point when Fed officials next meet on May 3 and probably continue with quarter-point increases in future months.

Economists and the Federal Reserve track the core inflation figure closely, believing it is a better gauge of underlying inflation pressures since the overall price number can swing widely in response to the volatile energy and food components.

The 0.4 percent rise in the prices outside of food and energy in March followed a 0.3 percent increase in February, which had been the first uptick from four straight months of more moderate 0.2 percent gains in the core inflation rate.

So far this year, the core rate for consumer prices are rising at an annual rate of 3.3 percent in the first three months of the year, the fastest quarterly inflation spurt for core prices since the summer of 2001.

For all of last year, core inflation rose by just 2.2 percent.

For March, energy costs shot up 4 percent, the biggest one-month gain since a similar 4 percent rise last October.

Gasoline prices climbed 7.9 percent, reflecting the shock motorists have gotten at the pump.

There should be a further jump for April given that motorists nationwide are now paying an average of $2.28 per gallon.

Food costs rose by a more moderate 0.2 percent in March, following an even smaller 0.1 percent gain in February.

Price declines for pork and fresh fruits helped to moderate price increases for beef, poultry and vegetables.

Outside of energy and food, clothing costs, which had been declining, jumped 0.8 percent in March, the biggest one-month gain in 12 months.

Airline ticket prices rose by 2.7 percent, the largest increase in nearly four years.

Airlines have been raising ticket prices to cope with soaring fuel costs.

The costs of hotel and motel rooms shot up 3.9 percent in March, the biggest increase on record.

[Livyjr]

And while we are on this subject of the economy, and OUR Congress' seeming inability and failure to grasp whether we do or don't really even have one, here is another companion article to this issue of OUR economy, this one from Wednesday, April 20, 2005:

Business - AP Economic Figures

"Inflation Surge Is Biggest in Five Months"

By MARTIN CRUTSINGER, AP Economics Writer

WASHINGTON - Consumer prices jumped 0.6 percent in March, the biggest inflation surge in five months, as the costs of energy, clothing and airline fares all rose sharply.

The new report showed that even outside of food and energy, there were significant price pressures last month.

The so-called core rate of inflation rose by a worrisome 0.4 percent in March, the largest jump in 2 1/2 years and double what economists had expected.

It reflected higher prices for clothing, hotel rooms, airline tickets and medical care.

SO!

Here we are, America, here we are!

George W. Bush is spending $300 BILLION out of OUR national treasury on his client/puppet state of Iraq, to make it a better place for him and Dick Cheney, especially with that cushy new palace, er, sprawling embassy complex, that they are going to build over there for hundreds of MILLIONS of OUR TAX DOLLARS, and well, we have had our turn, haven't we, as a non-third world country, and so, what should we really have to complain about, as we now assume OUR role as the world's newest emerging third-world nation?

"State risks health funding - Budget stakes future of medical programs on $2.2B in stock proceeds"

By JAMES M. ODATO, Capitol bureau, Albany, New York Times Union
First published: Thursday, April 21, 2005

ALBANY -- The state will pull the plug on major health care programs for the poor and elderly if $2.2 billion included in the just-enacted budget doesn't materialize by June 30.

The money is needed to keep funding Child Health Plus, a health insurance program for children of poor people and a big initiative of Assembly Democrats.

It is also needed to pay for EPIC, the state program to make prescriptions for elderly poor people affordable and a favorite of Senate Republicans.

The funds also are needed to help hospitals afford to care for people without health insurance.

Although the Pataki administration and the Legislature were aware of the potential $2.2 billion hole in the enacted state budget, the Division of Budget underscored it publicly in a report Wednesday that discussed the risks in the spending plan.

The Budget Division noted the state has $1.5 billion in reserves.

It also says several uncertainties could affect the balanced budget, particularly the unresolved issue of relying on $2.2 billion from insurance company conversions from not-for-profit to for-profit entities.

The money, needed to pay for numerous programs in the about $5.5 billion Health Care Reform Act (HCRA) portion of the state budget, is tied up in litigation challenging the use of proceeds from the 2002 conversion of Empire Blue Cross/Blue Shield.

The Court of Appeals is expected to determine if the state has a right to Empire stock.

The state hopes to sell enough of the stock to raise $1.8 billion for HCRA.

The budget counts on another $400 million from other conversions, most likely the proposed switch of the Health Insurance Plan, a New York City insurer.

The HIP conversion is far from certain because various public unions and downstate municipalities want some of the proceeds if a conversion occurs.

"No spending for certain HCRA programs may occur after June 30, 2005, unless conversion proceeds become available," the Budget Division stressed.

"The financial plan assumes that this issue will be resolved to allow full-year spending for all HCRA programs."

Besides Child Health Plus and EPIC, tens of millions of dollars would be lacking to reimburse hospitals for caring for indigent patients -- known as the bad debt and charity pool -- and millions more for nursing homes and hospitals to recruit and retain workers -- funds that the influential hospital worker union lobbied to include in the budget.

"This shows how relying on speculative one-shots can get you in trouble further down the road," said Diana Fortuna, executive director of the Citizens Budget Commission, an independent watchdog.

She said she would be surprised if the Legislature doesn't work out some way to fix the problem before its scheduled departure date of June 23.

Ken Raske, president of the Greater New York Hospital Association, said if the conversion money isn't freed in time, hospitals will suffer a "train wreck."

Matthew Cox, a spokesman for the Healthcare Association of New York State, said the leaders know the money is too important to be left out of the budget.

Senate Majority Leader Joseph Bruno, R-Brunswick, noted that the financial plan could be in trouble in other ways, particularly if just one casino is built in the Catskills.

He said the state needs several American Indian casinos operating in the Catskills to assure balanced budgets going forward.

"We have planned for cash flow from those casinos."

"And we have planned for three to five, not one," Bruno said.

Mark Hansen, a spokesman for Bruno, said the Court of Appeals is hearing arguments on the Empire case this month.

If the ruling comes too late or goes against the state, the Legislature could pass new conversion laws, he said.

Assembly Insurance Committee Chairman Alexander Grannis, D-Manhattan, blames the Pataki administration for gambling on winning the Empire case and getting access to the funds.

"The pressure is going to be on," he said.

The Budget Division also determined that the size of the enacted budget is $106.5 billion and calls for a 7.4 percent increase in funds raised by taxes and fees and other state revenues over last year's budget.

[Livyjr]

SO!

Here we are, America, here we are!

"State risks health funding - Budget stakes future of medical programs on $2.2B in stock proceeds" 
 
By JAMES M. ODATO, Capitol bureau, Albany, New York Times Union
First published: Thursday, April 21, 2005

Senate Majority Leader Joseph Bruno, R-Brunswick, noted that the financial plan could be in trouble in other ways, particularly if just one casino is built in the Catskills.

He said the state needs several American Indian casinos operating in the Catskills to assure balanced budgets going forward.

"We have planned for cash flow from those casinos."

"And we have planned for three to five, not one," Bruno said.

Well, here we are, at least up here in the corrupt EMPIRE STATE of New York, where we now NEED several casinos operating in the Catskill Mountains, to assure future balanced New York State budgets going forward, WHICH MEANS THAT THE FUTURE OF OUR ECONOMIC HEALTH HERE IN THE STATE OF NEW YORK NOW DEPENDS ON GAMBLERS!

Yes, America, gamblers!

WE NEED GAMBLERS IN THE STATE OF NEW YORK TO SAVE IT FROM ECONOMIC RUIN, so, go figure that out, will you?

GAMBLERS are the only real hope left for OUR America, now, it seems, after the hard-working crowd out there failed miserably at the job, I guess, or at least the PUNDITS like "Big Joe" Bruno got it figured that way, and people like that would know these things, wouldn't they?

After all, they are politicians, and isn't that what we pay them all those big bucks to do, to know these kinds of things for us, who are just too damn dumb to get out of OUR own way as we walk down the street?

Or maybe it is only New York State where that is so, and I would hope that it was, to be truthful, although I fear this plague spreads all across OUR land, where the GAMBLER is now the MODEL CITIZEN in OUR America!

And what a statement that really is, when you think about it!

When I was young, the backbone of my community were the hard-working members of the community who taught me what are my values of today, and now, those people are passe!

Now, the backbone of the community is the GAMBLER, the "easy bucks" crowd who does not work for their earnings, but wagers for them, instead!

"Hey, I know, we can bet on the color of the next car to go through the intersection!"

"Here's my hundred on candy-apple red!"

And this is the new "favorable morality", or "vogue morality", that is being taught to OUR young folks up here by such MORALISTS as "Big Joe" Bruno and George Pataki, the "9 and a half MILLION DOLLAR REPUBLICAN MAN" in New York State:

"Gambling IS GOOD, kids!"

"Gambling is what pays for these nice schools that we are giving you, and gambling is providing an education for you, where without these good God-fearing and UPRIGHT GAMBLERS, you would be going ignorant, just like all those people out there who can't see all the good that GAMBLING does for us REPUBLICANS, er, ah, well, I mean the state!"

"And so, when you get your education, thanks to these good God-fearing and UPRIGHT GAMBLERS in OUR society who made it possible for you, be sure that you go out and do your part for future generations of Americans by becoming a GAMBLER yourself!"

And there, America, is where we are!

And what of tomarrow, you ask?

Well, what odds are you going to offer me if I answer that question for you?

After all, we do have to help OUR economy, don't we, so, pony up, America, pony up!

"Getcha, getcha, getcha LOTTERY TICKET HERE, hey, hey slot machines over here, step right up, folks, step right up, it's for a good cause, the education of our next generation of suckers, er, gamblers, er, model citizens, and so, pony up!"

[Livyjr]

Well, here we are, at least up here in the corrupt EMPIRE STATE of New York, where we now NEED several casinos operating in the Catskill Mountains, to assure future balanced New York State budgets going forward, WHICH MEANS THAT THE FUTURE OF OUR ECONOMIC HEALTH HERE IN THE STATE OF NEW YORK NOW DEPENDS ON GAMBLERS!

Yes, America, gamblers!

WE NEED GAMBLERS IN THE STATE OF NEW YORK TO SAVE IT FROM ECONOMIC RUIN, so, go figure that out, will you?

And what a statement that really is, when you think about it!

When I was young, the backbone of my community were the hard-working members of the community who taught me what are my values of today, and now, those people are passe!

Now, the backbone of the community is the GAMBLER, the "easy bucks" crowd who does not work for their earnings, but wagers for them, instead!

"Hey, I know, we can bet on the color of the next car to go through the intersection!"

"Here's my hundred on candy-apple red!"

And this is the new "favorable morality", or "vogue morality", that is being taught to OUR young folks up here by such MORALISTS as "Big Joe" Bruno and George Pataki, the "9 and a half MILLION DOLLAR REPUBLICAN MAN" in New York State:

"Gambling IS GOOD, kids!"

"Gambling is what pays for these nice schools that we are giving you, and gambling is providing an education for you, where without these good God-fearing and UPRIGHT GAMBLERS, you would be going ignorant, just like all those people out there who can't see all the good that GAMBLING does for us REPUBLICANS, er, ah, well, I mean the state!"

"And so, when you get your education, thanks to these good God-fearing and UPRIGHT GAMBLERS in OUR society who made it possible for you, be sure that you go out and do your part for future generations of Americans by becoming a GAMBLER yourself!"

And there, America, is where we are!

And here IS where we are up here in the corrupt EMPIRE STATE of New York, where older people like myself encourage younger folks to get right out of this corrupt hole while they are young, and have the energy to do so!

"Get yourself free of this crap, go somewhere decent and a lot less costly to live, and you'll be just fine, and no, don't worry about us, we'll make out somehow!"

"State losing numbers game - As New York sheds residents, concerns raised about political clout, federal funding"

By KENNETH AARON, Staff writer, Albany, New York Times Union
First published: Thursday, April 21, 2005

Florida already has plenty of sunshine and Disney World and oranges.

And pretty soon, it's going to have New York's spot as the nation's third-most populous state.

Come 2011, New York is expected to swap positions with Florida and drop to the country's fourth-largest state, according to projections the U.S. Census Bureau will release today.

Besides the psychic disappointment of slipping another spot in the head count horse race, there are more tangible issues, too:

Fewer people means fewer representatives in the U.S. Congress and a shrinking share of some federal dollars.

"This is unpleasant news but not a surprise," said Robert B. Ward, director of research for the Public Policy Institute, part of the Business Council of New York State, an Albany lobbying group.

"People vote with their feet."

"People go where they can find opportunity, and for half a century now other states have been beating New York at providing opportunity," he said.

Ward's group calculates the state will likely lose two of its 29 seats in the House of Representatives if the census figures hold true.

That's the state's lowest level since 1810, when there were 186 members in the House.

It gets worse: By 2030, the delegation may slide to 23.

In 1950 it was 45.

The state's share of federal highway dollars, among other things, is also determined by population.

The more people who move elsewhere, the more money those places receive.

Frequently, that money will go toward building new infrastructure while New York will need bigger investments to support what it has, said Rocco Ferraro, executive director of the Capital District Regional Planning Commission.

Besides that, he's worried more people will start maintaining dual residences -- sunny places for part of the year, New York for the rest -- yet not be counted as New York residents.

That could leave local communities holding the bag for services they need to provide yet can't generate enough revenue to support.

All this fretting puts the state in an unfamiliar position.

After spending most of the nation's history as its most-populated state, a string that ran from 1810 to 1970, New York has taken a relatively quick spin through spots two and three, behind California and Texas.

That said, this is not exactly a last-person-out-hit-the-lights situation.

The state is still picking up population, and is expected to do so until 2019, when the numbers start to dip a bit annually.

New York is likely to be the nation's fourth-largest state in 2030, the last year for which demographers have issued projections.

And No. 5 on the list, Illinois, isn't exactly rising with a bullet -- it will have 6 million fewer residents than New York.

But growth has definitely shifted to the south, leaving New York and other industrialized states to limp along.

Only Ohio and Iowa are adding residents at a slower pace; West Virginia, North Dakota and the District of Columbia are expected to lose residents during that period.

The Sunshine State's ascendancy was seen as inevitable by demographers.

While New York used to grow quickly, its growth is now stunted by falling birth rates, an aging population and a continued exodus of foreigners who come to New York but move elsewhere.

It did happen more quickly than expected, though.

The last time the Census Bureau released state-by-state projections, in 1996, they didn't figure Florida would pass New York until 2025.

A spokesman for Gov. George Pataki said the numbers don't reflect the growth the state expects from its efforts to attract high-tech companies, and jobs.

"The governor's committed to bringing the jobs of the future to New York," said Todd Alhart.

The news has left some talking about silver linings.

Slower growth means communities might be able to get a better handle on where they're headed.

"If you look out to Arizona and Nevada, where they have runaway growth, they have some tremendous problems dealing with that growth," said Warren A. Brown, a demography professor at Cornell University who worked with the Census Bureau in preparing the state's figures.

"They're probably not going to run out of sunshine."

"But they might run out of water."

Even so, this might call for a little emotional pick-me-up for New Yorkers.

"We haven't really lost anything, but there's probably a need to market to self-esteem statewide," said David Brown, chief executive of Sawchuk, Brown Associates, an Albany marketing, public relations and public affairs firm.

This state still has New York City, after all, the nation's biggest.

And there's plenty of interesting things happening.

But not enough to stop lots of people from packing their bags.

"Florida's, like, the hottest spot," said Jack Dring, vice president and general manager of Arnoff Moving & Storage of Albany.

"I could keep a caravan running there."

The amount of tonnage his moving vans send down there is "ridiculous," said Dring, who said everybody from the young to retirees are heading south.

Not that it's necessarily calling him.

He flew into Orlando with his wife once and saw nothing but houses being built upon houses.

If others want to go, though, he's fine with that.

"As long as they keep coming to us so I can fill my trucks," he said.

[jeffmoskin]

SO!

$300 BILLION!

And what's that, really?

A drop in the bucket, isn't it?

Just a lousy $300 BILLION!

Works out to about $1.50 per barrel. A pretty good "investment," wouldn't you say?

There should be a further jump for April given that motorists nationwide are now paying an average of $2.28 per gallon.

Man, I'd settle for that right now. We Kah-lee-FAWN-yuns are looking at $2.60 to $2.75 a gallon. Of course, we have special gas.

Because we are special people.

[Livyjr]

Man, I'd settle for that right now.

We Kah-lee-FAWN-yuns are looking at $2.60 to $2.75 a gallon.

Of course, we have special gas.

Because we are special people.

I'm surprised by how expensive gas is out there in AH-nold-ville, as we easterners now think of Kah-lee-FAWN-yuh!

And where is this $2.28 per gallon?

I paid $2.45 yesterday for 89 octane!

And we have the same special gas as you, as well, jeffmoskin, exactly the same, and for the same reasons, I would guess, although nobody ever does really tell us what they are!

BUT ....

Despite that, WE yokels up here in upstate New York still feel that "pride" nonetheless, that we are burning the exact same gas in our old Toyotas and such, as the TERMINATOR GOVERNOR of AH-nold-ville uses in his HUMVEE!

Somehow, isn't that supposed to make us proud to be an American?

Isn't that really why we imported AH-nold in the first place, to teach us all how to be good Americans, starting with the Kah-lee-FAWN-yuns, because you all are such special people, and so, should have a good dose of AH-nold, before he comes to bring the blessings of democracy to all the rest of us benighted folks out here in OUR America?

[Livyjr]

A pretty good "investment," wouldn't you say?

What I think would be a real good investment for OUR tax dollars would be to come up with a nation-wide system of voting, here in OUR America, that has some integrity to it, so that no more of OUR elections can possibly be hijacked!

I think a real good place to invest OUR tax money is right here, where it belongs, and not in some place like Iraq, which has the funds from its oil reserves to pay its own way!

But oh, I forgot, we stole that oil, didn't we?

SO!

Is this where that line about letting them eat cake comes in?

[Livyjr]

What I think would be a real good investment for OUR tax dollars would be to come up with a nation-wide system of voting, here in OUR America, that has some integrity to it, so that no more of OUR elections can possibly be hijacked!

And speaking of elections being hi-jacked, what's this from the corrupt EMPIRE STATE of New York on that exact subject of "reforming" the electoral process, here in OUR America?

"Assembly OKs voting package"

By MICHAEL GORMLEY, Associated Press
First published: Thursday, April 21, 2005

ALBANY -- The Assembly on Wednesday gave final legislative approval to limited reform on voting in New York as a federal deadline looms.

The biggest and most contentious items remain undone as the Legislature faces a June 23 end-of-session deadline to comply with the federal Help America Vote Act.

The Legislature has yet to agree on who should control the process of selecting new voting machines and what will be acceptable voter identification.

Wednesday's action will create a statewide official record of registered voters and establish a complaint procedure for voters who feel their rights were violated.

The voter list would be a compilation of county - and city - election registration lists, but the state would be able to identify and take action against duplicate registrations, convicted felons still registered despite losing their right to vote and deceased voters, said the bill's co-sponsor, Assemblywoman RoAnn Destito, an Oneida County Democrat.

The registration list is less than what good-government advocates sought.

They wanted instant registration at polling places through the use of laptop computers and other measures, said Rachel Leon of Common Cause of New York.

The groups also said the bill lacks enough privacy protections and voters won't be informed when they are removed from the list.

HAVA requires states to have new machines and statewide lists for the 2006 elections.

If it meets the deadline, New York would receive $200 million in federal funding to buy modern machines.

[Livyjr]

And speaking of elections being hi-jacked, what's this from the corrupt EMPIRE STATE of New York on that exact subject of "reforming" the electoral process, here in OUR America?

"Assembly OKs voting package" 
 
By MICHAEL GORMLEY, Associated Press
First published: Thursday, April 21, 2005

ALBANY -- The Assembly on Wednesday gave final legislative approval to limited reform on voting in New York as a federal deadline looms.

The biggest and most contentious items remain undone as the Legislature faces a June 23 end-of-session deadline to comply with the federal Help America Vote Act.

The Legislature has yet to agree on who should control the process of selecting new voting machines and what will be acceptable voter identification.

HAVA requires states to have new machines and statewide lists for the 2006 elections.

If it meets the deadline, New York would receive $200 million in federal funding to buy modern machines.

You know, I don't recall ever hearing of any major problems or scandals up here resulting from the use of our present voting machines, which are the mechanical lever-type, and so, I am really curious as to where the United States government gets off telling us that we have to have new voting machines, when the "new" machines the Bush government is "pushing" inspire absolutely no confidence in me, or other older Americans in New York State, for that matter, based on their track record of errors, and the fact that nobody knows what is happening to OUR votes once they are put into those computerized machines.

[Livyjr]

I think a real good place to invest OUR tax money is right here, where it belongs, and not in some place like Iraq, which has the funds from its oil reserves to pay its own way!

But oh, I forgot, we stole that oil, didn't we?

SO!

Is this where that line about letting them eat cake comes in?

And while the Iraqis are eating their cake, what about us up here in the corrupt EMPIRE STATE of New York?

What will we be eating?

Not the fish from most of our lakes and other water bodies, thanks to environmental contamination, and that is a fact!

BUT .....

Since we are now an emerging third-world nation, what does that matter?

In fact, isn't that a sign that we are a third-world nation, that we can't eat anything, because it is so contaminated?

"State expands cautions on eating fish - Health officials warn of mercury in Adirondack and Catskill catches"

By MATT PACENZA, Staff writer, Albany, New York Times Union
First published: Saturday, April 16, 2005

ALBANY -- State health officials Friday warned women of childbearing age and children younger than 15 to not eat most fish caught in the Adirondacks and Catskills -- the most expansive warning ever in New York -- because of mercury contamination.

The warning says young women and children should avoid eating northern pike, pickerel, walleye, largemouth bass, smallmouth bass and larger yellow perch from all waters in the Adirondack and Catskill regions because of mercury.

Those species are larger predator fish, more likely to have higher concentrations of the potent neurotoxin in their tissues because they mostly eat other fish.

The advisory follows years of restricting individual ponds, lakes and other waterways, an approach that health and environmental advocates said was not nearly protective enough.

Many other states have the blanket advisory that New York has now adopted.

"This is something that has long been needed," said Dr. David Carpenter, director of the Institute for Health and the Environment at the University at Albany.

The state Health Department and Department of Environmental Conservation regularly test the state's waters.

But John Sheehan of the Adirondack Council, an environmental group, said the blanket warning makes sense because the state doesn't have the resources to check enough bodies of water.

"We can only test a few each year, but the consistent pattern is we find contaminated fish almost every time we tested."

In addition, the state Health Department issued 25 more specific advisories for water bodies statewide, all but one of which are for mercury contamination, including a ban on eating any walleye and no more than one meal per month of smallmouth bass from Dunham Reservoir in Rensselaer County.

The complete list is available at http://www.health.state.ny.us.

A meal is defined by the Health Department as a half-pound of fish.

Last year, 50 waterways had health advisories for elevated mercury levels, 30 of them in the Adirondacks.

That region now has nearly 40 ponds, lakes and rivers with specific warnings, which go beyond the region's women and children advisory, Sheehan said.

Mercury can damage a developing nervous system as well as the growth of organs in a fetus, infants and young children.

Some of the contaminants may also build up in women and are passed to babies during breast-feeding, according to the state Health Department.

The advisories could hurt the Adirondacks and Catskills, which draw tourists and anglers from around the world, said Sheehan.

The fish advisory was also unusual because it came early in the fishing season.

Previous years' warnings have come as late as August.

"It's good to see the Pataki administration is taking this seriously enough to get the advisory out on time," said Blair Horner of the New York Public Interest Research Group.

"It's tragic that we have to do this," Sheehan said.

"But we may be seeing the worst of it right now," he said.

Mercury pollution has been a hot topic at both the state and national levels.

Environmentalists blasted the Bush administration last month for not moving quickly enough to force coal-burning power plants -- the biggest domestic source of mercury -- to put controls in place to limit mercury emissions.

The White House plan, which is being challenged in the courts, uses a controversial "cap-and-trade" approach to cut power plants' mercury emissions from 48 tons per year currently to about 15 tons by 2025.

State officials, including Gov. George Pataki, had called on President Bush to enact a stronger mercury policy, citing the state's fish contamination.

State officials have said they will consider their own mercury policy.

But they point out that a recently enacted state rule concerning power plants targets nitrogen oxides and sulfur dioxides, which contribute to acid rain and smog, will likely cut New York's mercury pollution between 40 and 80 percent, depending on how the plants choose to cut the toxins.

Acid rain accelerates the absorption of mercury in fish.

Matt Pacenza can be reached at 454-5533 or by e-mail at mpacenza@timesunion.com.

The Associated Press contributed to this report.

[jeffmoskin]

You know, I don't recall ever hearing of any major problems or scandals up here resulting from the use of our present voting machines, which are the mechanical lever-type, and so, I am really curious as to where the United States government gets off telling us that we have to have new voting machines, when the "new" machines the Bush government is "pushing" inspire absolutely no confidence in me, or other older Americans in New York State, for that matter, based on their track record of errors, and the fact that nobody knows what is happening to OUR votes once they are put into those computerized machines.

Actually, there have been instances where "technicians" have filed a few teeth off the wheels, but in so doing they leave EVIDENCE. Of course, if nobody checks, then they get away with it.

In Ohio, my guess is that the "phantom software patch" that transferred a Kerry vote to a Bush vote "mysteriously" erased itself without a trace at, say 0300 November 3.

The only way we will ever be able to prove the existance of such a patch is for the programmer to come forth.

And doing so risks sleeping with the fishes.

If that is not already where he sleeps.

[Livyjr]

Well, here we are, at least up here in the corrupt EMPIRE STATE of New York, where we now NEED several casinos operating in the Catskill Mountains, to assure future balanced New York State budgets going forward, WHICH MEANS THAT THE FUTURE OF OUR ECONOMIC HEALTH HERE IN THE STATE OF NEW YORK NOW DEPENDS ON GAMBLERS!

Yes, America, gamblers!

WE NEED GAMBLERS IN THE STATE OF NEW YORK TO SAVE IT FROM ECONOMIC RUIN, so, go figure that out, will you?

GAMBLERS are the only real hope left for OUR America, now, it seems, after the hard-working crowd out there failed miserably at the job, I guess, or at least the PUNDITS like "Big Joe" Bruno got it figured that way, and people like that would know these things, wouldn't they?

After all, they are politicians, and isn't that what we pay them all those big bucks to do, to know these kinds of things for us, who are just too damn dumb to get out of OUR own way as we walk down the street?

Or maybe it is only New York State where that is so, and I would hope that it was, to be truthful, although I fear this plague spreads all across OUR land, where the GAMBLER is now the MODEL CITIZEN in OUR America!

And here is a real, modern-day "NEW YORK" story if ever there was one!

"Gambling official under state scrutiny - Field investigator allegedly bilked investors through schemes"

By JAMES M. ODATO, Capitol bureau, Albany, New York Times Union
First published: Monday, April 18, 2005

ALBANY -- A state gambling official is under investigation by state and local law enforcement authorities for allegedly fleecing thousands of dollars from investors in his private business schemes and improperly using his job.

Patrick Walsh, 43, of Albany, an entrepreneur whose day job involves investigating legal gambling halls for the state Racing & Wagering Board, is under scrutiny.

His activities, linked to State Racing & Wagering Board colleague Louis J. Rossi, could put him in jail for years, State Police investigators say.

Numerous criminal charges were lodged against Walsh last week.

More are expected.

Peter Lynch, Walsh's lawyer, who entered not-guilty pleas for his client in Schenectady and Albany city courts, said complaints were sworn out by business associates after Walsh filed for bankruptcy protection.

"The disputes are civil in nature, and it is wrong for individuals to use the criminal justice system as a collection agency," Lynch said.

Rossi did not return a call.

Walsh is on indefinite suspension without pay from his $49,197-a-year job as of last week, when he was charged with three counts of grand larceny, scheme to defraud and eight counts of issuing bad checks.

He is accused of bilking a co-worker at the Racing & Wagering Board of $20,000 and taking thousands of dollars from friends and acquaintances, including from people at Schenectady's Bingo Palace, one of the gambling halls that Walsh, a field investigator, is supposed to keep an eye on for the state but at which he actually operated the food concession.

Rossi is a desk investigator, officials said, also in the charitable gambling unit, and a partner in several businesses with Walsh.

Those who call themselves victims thought they were investing in some of Walsh's and Rossi's moonlighting businesses.

The ventures include pizza shops and a private investigation firm, according to court documents.

In all, more than $63,000 was taken by Walsh in criminal schemes, State Police claim in their charges.

But investigators add that the file of those alleging fraud keeps growing.

"It's substantial," said State Police Investigator Walter J. Hadsell.

"It's a rarity you see someone who will screw over friends."

He declined to say if Rossi is under investigation, but said the Walsh probe is broadening.

The state Inspector General's Office also is looking into Walsh, according to both Hadsell and Stacy Clifford, a spokeswoman for the Racing & Wagering Board.

Clifford said the former executive director of the board, Ed Martin, turned Walsh in to the Inspector General for "inappropriate" activities.

A spokesman for the Inspector General, Steve Del Giacco, declined to comment.

Clifford said Rossi's job, which pays $52,114, is unchanged.

Both men filed for bankruptcy protection in the past year.

The bankruptcy records show Walsh declared $644,529 in debts, including liabilities to some of the people who have sworn out criminal complaints against him, and $17,051 in assets.

Rossi listed $303,639 in liabilities and $5,974 in assets.

The records show they co-owned businesses, including Sbarcheesy's Pizzeria, Little John's Pizza, Rossi and Walsh Management and MLLP, all of which were pizza enterprises that apparently have since closed or were sold.

Another business is listed as Amnic Corp.

Alleged victims include Joseph F.W. Ryan, a Racing & Wagering Board employee, who said Walsh induced him to take out $20,000 in credit-card loans to invest in two prepared-food businesses.

"I feel that he conned me out of the money," Ryan told police in a statement.

Robert Neals, the manager of the Bingo Palace, provided a series of checks to Walsh totaling about $33,000 as an erstwhile business partner.

"I trusted him since he worked for New York State as an investigator," Neals said.

"He was supposed to uphold the laws."

"I thought he was honest."

Richard Rudolph told police that he worked as Walsh's manager of the food concession at the Bingo Palace.

He said Walsh told him he'd become a partner in Sbarcheesy's if he gave him $10,000.

Rudolph said he regrets doing so because he did not get anything in return.

He said Walsh paid him $100 a week for managing the concession and $400 under the table, but that his paychecks kept bouncing.

Bernard Martinese, who owns Bingo Palace, said he agreed to the concession contract with Walsh because he was told by Walsh that superiors at the Racing & Wagering Board authorized the business relationship.

Clifford said she could not confirm that.

Martinese rented the concession space to Walsh for $2,000 a week and often didn't get paid, he said.

Another alleged victim, Paul Vincent Oliver, said he gave Walsh $12,000 to become a partner in a Niskayuna pizza parlor but he never received stock ownership as promised.

Instead, he said, he received notice that he was a creditor in Walsh's and Rossi's bankruptcies.

Oliver also said that as he considered Walsh's invitations to become an investor,

Walsh portrayed himself as someone able to pull strings within the state bureaucracy.

Oliver said he was concerned about a liquor license for his La Casa Di Canali restaurant and Walsh told him he would make a call to the State Liquor Authority to help.

A few days later, as Walsh had suggested, a liquor license was issued.

[Livyjr]

And here is a real, modern-day "NEW YORK" story if ever there was one!

"Gambling official under state scrutiny - Field investigator allegedly bilked investors through schemes" 
 
By JAMES M. ODATO, Capitol bureau, Albany, New York Times Union
First published: Monday, April 18, 2005

ALBANY -- A state gambling official is under investigation by state and local law enforcement authorities for allegedly fleecing thousands of dollars from investors in his private business schemes and improperly using his job.

Richard Rudolph told police that he worked as Walsh's manager of the food concession at the Bingo Palace.

He said Walsh told him he'd become a partner in Sbarcheesy's if he gave him $10,000.

Rudolph said he regrets doing so because he did not get anything in return.

He said Walsh paid him $100 a week for managing the concession and $400 under the table, but that his paychecks kept bouncing.

And here I have to say that the most interesting thing in this story is this guy telling all the world, including the IRS, that he has been making $400 per week under the table, working for this other guy in this story, the gambling investigator!

Presumably, if he was making $400 "under the table", then there was no record of that money, and of course, this guy making that $400 per week was likely not reporting it on his income taxes, and so ......

Now, of course, it is pretty obvious to all the world that this guy has likely been cheating on his taxes, besides getting screwed by the scam artist, and so, I wonder now what the IRS is going to do about that admission!

It's like a story I heard on Paul Harvey the other day about a clerk in a store wanting to defeat the security cameras in the store so he could then rob the store, so, he placed pieces of clear tape over the camera lenses!

Rocket scientists!

This country is getting overrun with rocket scientists!

Must be NASA's fault, somehow, or maybe it is just plain, old evolution, and the natural selection of the fittest at play here, in OUR America!

Stay tuned and see!

[Livyjr]

And on a more serious note:

Middle East - AP

"Iraqi Leaders May Recruit Ex-Saddam Agents"

59 minutes ago

By KATHERINE SHRADER, Associated Press Writer

WASHINGTON - Iraqi leaders trying to rebuild the country's government are struggling over whether to enlist some of Iraq's most experienced intelligence operatives.

The problem is that the officers' training comes from working at the fear-inspiring agencies once run by Saddam Hussein's ruling party.

Factions involved in the painstaking process of building the democratic government are voicing their reluctance to let former members of the Baath Party into the fledgling intelligence and security services.

"There is a fear among some Iraqis that I talk to that ex-Baathists are burrowing into these organizations with the express purpose of waiting for the opportune moment, such as when the U.S. leaves, to use these security organizations to make a big move," said Kenneth Katzman, a Middle East expert with the Congressional Research Service, which provides analysis to lawmakers.

He said he believes the fears are well founded.

After forming a new intelligence service last year, outgoing interim Prime Minister Ayad Allawi decided to recall some of Saddam's former intelligence operatives, including individuals working in Iran, Syria and Russia, to help staff the new service.

American intelligence veterans say the U.S. supported the move, seen as an effort to bring trained people into the government and give them jobs.

Current and former U.S. officials, who spoke only on condition of anonymity, said the CIA has been intimately involved in helping establish the organization by assisting with basic building blocks such as how to assemble intelligence information in databases and keep the material secure.

The agency declined to comment for this story.

For months, however, larger issues have loomed.

Shiite and Kurdish groups, persecuted during Saddam's regime but now in power, have been anxious about efforts to include former Baathists in government positions, which is one of the trickiest political questions facing the loose coalition that's forming the new government.

The Baathist-run intelligence agencies were blamed for some of the former regime's worst brutality.

Yet anyone who wanted a government job had to be a member of the Baath Party, making it hard now to sort out true-believers from those who were trying to earn a living.

U.S. officials, on the alert for a sudden — or even gradual — purge, are watching closely for any number of changes in the intelligence service, including whether ex-Baathists or Iraqis deemed too close to the United States are put out of work.

While it remains unclear who will assume power in Iraq and what action they'll take, some are already sending strong signals that they will not tolerate Saddam holdovers.

"We will depend on the good elements that have no link to the former regime."

"They should have loyalty to Iraq and its people," said Abass Al-Bayati of the Shiite-led United Iraqi Alliance, which won the most votes in the Jan. 30 elections.

Haitham Al-Hussaini, an official from the Shiite political party, the Supreme Council for the Islamic Revolution in Iraq, said reform steps will be handled by "the well-known parties and figures."

"We will reconsider the Iraqi intelligence and security services to find out those who were working in the former services and have no loyalty," Al-Hussaini said.

U.S. decision-makers don't want a fracturing of security efforts because it likely would prove embarrassing and make it harder for the United States to reduce its presence in Iraq.

On a trip there this month, Defense Secretary Donald H. Rumsfeld warned against house cleaning of the leadership of security organizations.

"My personal hope and the hope of the United States is that those judgments will reflect a desire to have highly competent people who are not going to politicize security forces," Rumsfeld said.

But the potential confrontation puts the United States in a difficult spot:

American officials want new Iraqi institutions, including the intelligence service, to be stable and employ individuals from a variety of political backgrounds.

Yet they also want to ensure the new government is not penetrated by former elements loyal to Saddam who may use their position for harm.

"If the U.S. were to substantially pull out — and let's say there were a coup — it would be a big black mark on the U.S. record in Iraq," Katzman said.

Reuel Marc Gerecht, a former Middle Eastern specialist with the CIA, said he believes it's likely there will be a "cleansing" of the intelligence service, which is considered compromised.

The new government, he said, will pay close attention to ties between any current or potential intelligence service members and the Sunni-led insurgency.

"There will not be former senior Baathists or others who were involved directly in the oppression of the Shiites and Kurds under Saddam Hussein."

"I don't think there is any chance in the world that the new government, dominated by Shiites and Kurds, would allow this," said Gerecht, now with the conservative American Enterprise Institute think tank.