Urban myth watch-prowar twist of the numbers, DC more dangerous than Iraq NOT! Options

[real_democrat]

This Urban myth is making the rounds...

If you consider that there have been an average of 160,000 troops in the Iraq theater of operations during the last 22 months, and a total of 2112 deaths, that gives a firearm death rate of 60 per 100,000.

The firearm death rate in Washington D.C. (among others) is 80.6 per 100,000.

That means that you are about 25% more likely to be shot and killed in our Nation's Capitol, which has some of the strictest gun control laws in the nation, than you are in Iraq.

Conclusion: We should immediately pull out of Washington D.C.

This has been going around the net, but the numbers are bogus. The number for DC is a yearly rate and is reported high, and the rate for Iraq is monthly.

First where do they get these numbers?

The Irag rate of 60/100k for example. If it were an annual number it would simply be 12 times the monthly rate per 100,000. With 1.6 the number of 100,000s.

Monthly rate = (2112deaths/22months)/(1.6)=60

So the correct yearly rate per 100K in Iraq would be 60*12 =720/Per 100,000 per year

According to the DC police there were a total of 195 murders in DC last year..
http://mpdc.dc.gov/mpdc/cwp/view,a,1239,Q,...pdcNav,%7C,.asp

With a population of around 550,000 the number of deaths in DC from guns alone would be 80.6*5.5=443. That means there are a lot of accident probe people or many suicides in DC. Unlikely.

But even if you were to believe the inflated number of 80.6/per year/per 100K for DC you are 9 times as likely to die in Iraq than DC.

Based on the murder rate, assuming all homicides were by gun the ratio would be higher still arond 20 times as likely to meet death in Iraq.
Another urban myth bites the dust.

This post has been edited by real_democrat: Jan 17 2006, 06:36 PM

[amy]

Even if this "urban myth" were true, I fail to see what it has to do with our military dying in Iraq (never mind the Iraqi civilian casulaties). What could be the point of this comparison...that our soldiers are safer in Iraq than in the U.S. by the percentages?
Just silly stuff floating around, RD....I wouldn't even waste my time responding to this nonsense..