CongressDaily PM for Tuesday, Nov. 25, 2008

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CONTENTS

BUDGET: OBAMA SELECTS ORSZAG, NABORS FOR LEADING OMB POSITIONS
By Humberto Sanchez, with Christian Bourge contributing


President-elect Obama has chosen CBO Director Orszag to head OMB, > while
Rob Nabors, the Democratic clerk and staff director of the House
Appropriations Committee, will be OMB deputy director. "These > appointees
will work with those I have yet to announce -- including the > secretaries of
Energy and Labor, Commerce, and Health and Human Services and others > in my
administration -- to design a recovery plan for both Wall Street and > Main
Street, and to put our economy on a path to long-term growth and
prosperity," Obama said at a news conference. Senate Budget Chairman > Kent
Conrad called Orszag an exceptional choice and "a talented economist > who
has provided invaluable information and insight on the federal > budget."
Senate Finance ranking member Charles Grassley also praised the pick,
saying that if Orszag is confirmed, "we know that he will continue > to serve
his country well."

Orszag, who has headed CBO since January 2007, is a former economic
adviser to President Bill Clinton and a protégé of former Treasury
Secretary Robert Rubin. The nonpartisan agency provides Congress with
economic analysis and cost estimates, and it has significantly > expanded its
focus on areas such as health care and climate change under his watch.
Before joining CBO, Orszag was a senior fellow at the Brookings
Institution. Nabors joined the Appropriations Committee in 2001 after
working at OMB under former Director Jack Lew.

Orszag and Nabors would be top advisers on the economy and > responsible for
projecting the fiscal consequences of any presidential decision, > including
the economic stimulus package that Obama and Democrats say they want > to
enact early next year. Obama has said the package would create and > sustain
2.5 million jobs through infrastructure spending on roads, bridges and
schools, as well as direct money to green energy and renewable energy
projects. With details still to be worked out, Obama has not yet > provided a
total cost for the package. But senior Democratic aides say party > leaders
are looking for a maximum price tag of about $500 billion. Senate > Majority
Leader Reid told the Las Vegas Review-Journal Monday that he > expected a
cost in that range.

Obama said he intends to cut wasteful spending and will tackle runaway
healthcare costs. "We cannot sustain a system that bleeds billions of
taxpayer dollars on programs that have outlived their usefulness, or > exist
solely because of the power of a politician, lobbyist or interest > group,"
Obama said. Those comments resonated with Rep. Jim Cooper, D-Tenn., a
member of the Blue Dog Coalition. Cooper said the economic distress > allows
the government to "jump-start our economy by spurring job creation." > But in
the long term, he added, government must restore fiscal discipline. > "We've
made trillions of dollars of promises to our children and > grandchildren
that we can't keep. President-elect Obama serves our country well by
calling on us to sacrifice today so that tomorrow can be better," he > said.


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FINANCE: TREASURY, FED ANNOUNCE $800B PLAN TO EASE LENDING
By Humberto Sanchez


Seeking to calm markets and boost consumer confidence, the Treasury
Department and the Federal Reserve today rolled out two programs > that will
provide as much as $800 billion to help increase the flow of lending > for
mortgages, students, cars, credit cards and small businesses. The > Treasury
allocated $20 billion of its $700 billion Troubled Asset Relief > Program in
connection with a new $200 billion plan -- known as Term Asset Backed
Securities Loan Facility -- to support consumer and small-business > loans.
Under the new facility, Treasury said, the Federal Reserve Bank of > New York
will lend up to $200 billion to holders of newly issued AAA-rated
asset-backed securities (ABS) for a term of at least one year. The > Fed will
lend an amount equal to the value of the asset-backed securities, > minus a
discount to account for risk, and will be backed by the ABS. > Treasury will
provide $20 billion of credit protection to the Fed in connection > with the
facility, using its authorities under the financial rescue plan > Congress
passed in October. "Throughout this financial market turmoil, our > focus has
been to stabilize the system and support the lending that is vital > to our
economy," Treasury Secretary Paulson said.

Separately, the Fed said it will buy as much as $600 billion in debt
issued or backed by government-chartered housing finance companies,
including Fannie Mae and Freddie Mac. "Today's announcement by the > Fed that
it will purchase direct debt obligations of Fannie Mae, Freddie Mac > and the
Federal Home Loan Banks, and also mortgage backed securities > guaranteed by
Fannie, Freddie and Ginnie Mae, underscores our support for the > housing
market," Paulson said. "Nothing is more important to getting through > this
housing correction than the availability of affordable mortgage > finance."
Only $20 billion remains of the first half of the TARP funding, which
Congress gave to Paulson to fight the credit crunch. President Bush > will
have to notify Congress if he wants to use the second $350 billion > block of
funding, but it is unclear whether he will.

"We are continuing to work to develop and deploy TARP capital in > programs
that make sense; we have no timeline for drawing down the next > tranche,"
Paulson said. "But Congress set in place a process for doing that > and we
are focused on the [economy righting] programs, and when the time is > right
we will avail ourselves of that congressional process." His > announcement
came shortly after the Commerce Department released a revised estimate
showing that gross domestic product shrank at an annualized 0.5 > percent
rate in the third quarter, weaker than the 0.3 percent decline > estimated a
month ago, and the worst showing since the third quarter of 2001.
Meanwhile, the third-quarter reading of the Standard & Poor's/Case-> Shiller
Home Price index dropped a record 16.6 percent during the third > quarter
from the same period a year ago. Prices at these levels have not been
recorded since 2004.


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HOUSE LEADERSHIP: AS TOWNS BUILDS SUPPORT, SOME DEMS LOOK FOR > ALTERNATIVE
By Dan Friedman, with Christian Bourge contributing


Rep. Edolphus Towns, D-N.Y., is shoring up Congressional Black Caucus
support to become House Oversight and Government Reform Committee > chairman,
even as members of the committee, egged on by lawmakers unsure about > Towns,
look for an opening to challenge him. Despite concerns about Towns > among
House leadership, his seniority on the committee and CBC support could
allow him to claim the chairmanship without a fight at a Democratic > Caucus
meeting expected the week of Dec. 8, House aides said. Oversight and
Government Reform Chairman Henry Waxman who is vacating his post to > take
the Energy and Commerce gavel next month, last week privately offered
support to Rep. Elijah Cummings, D-Md., if he sought the > chairmanship, a
House aide said. But aides tracking the issue said Cummings, a > former CBC
chairman, is unwilling now to take on Towns in a bid likely to split > the
CBC, which strongly backs the seniority system. A Waxman spokeswoman
declined to comment.

Some House staffers speculated Monday that Oversight and Government > Reform
National Security Subcommittee Chairman John Tierney, D-Mass., would > seek
the committee chairmanship. A Tierney spokeswoman did not flatly > rule out
interest by Tierney, but said he "is not seeking the chairmanship" > and "has
not heard from anyone" about it since he recently returned to > Washington.
Three other subcommittee chairmen and Rep. Carolyn Maloney, D-N.Y., > the
third-most-senior Democrat on the committee, have announced support > for
Towns, who a spokeswoman said will announce support from an > unspecified
number of CBC members early next week.

Reps. Brad Ellsworth, D-Ind., and Peter Welch, D-Vt. today sent a > letter
supporting Towns' chairmanship bid to colleagues, noting his help in > moving
legislation they sponsored through his subcommittee. But some House > aides
suggest lingering doubts about Towns over several key votes in which > he
defied leaders might prompt House Speaker Pelosi to seek an > alternative.
Another problem Towns faces is lack of a reputation. "He's totally
anonymous," said a former senior House Democratic staffer. "Nobody > knows
him, knows what he does. He doesn't come to [party] Caucus meetings. > He
doesn't come to any meetings." Despite regularly chairing subcommittee
hearings, Towns has infrequently attended full committee hearings, > records
show. Whoever becomes chairman, Oversight committee members are > moving to
ensure continuity as Waxman exits. Waxman met recently with both > Towns and
Tierney regarding financial rescue oversight in December, according to
aides.


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HEALTH: GENERIC DRUG MAKERS SEEING BOON THANKS TO WAXMAN
By Anna Edney


While much of the pharmaceutical world warily eyes Rep. Henry Waxman's
ascension to the top spot on the House Energy and Commerce > Committee, the
generic drug industry and those that support low-cost medicines are
practically giddy. The California Democrat is a close ally of the > generic
industry, having co-authored the 1984 law that launched the > traditional
copycat medicines business. He is also proposing the latest > potential boon
for generics: legislation to allow them to seek FDA approval of > generic, or
follow-on, versions of biologic drugs. When Rep. John Dingell, D-> Mich., was
at the helm of the Energy and Commerce Committee, Democrats > struggled to
forge a consensus around the follow-on biologics idea, but many > believe
Waxman will use his new post to push for the legislation. Waxman > "has put
access to medicines and generic issues high on his agenda," one > lobbyist
said. Waxman's office declined to comment.

A major sticking point remains the number of years that the brand > biologic
drug industry needs to monopolize the market for a new drug before
recouping the cost of innovation. The Senate Health, Education, > Labor and
Pensions Committee concluded in June 2007 that brand biologic > drugmakers
deserve 12 years of so-called exclusivity when brands are protected > from
generic competition. Dingell, who is tougher on generic drugmakers > and led
the uncovering of a generic drug scandal two decades ago that led to a
major overhaul, did not make reconciling that point a priority, > whereas
many believe Waxman will. But lobbyists from all sides of the debate > warned
the follow-on biologics effort still faces an uphill struggle, with > one
likening the party split to an "inter-Democratic firing squad." At > one end
of House Democrats' debate are members like Reps. Anna Eshoo, D-> Calif., and
Jay Inslee, D-Wash., who introduced bills that seek, respectively, > 12 years
and 14 years of exclusivity for brand biologics. At the opposite end > is
Waxman, whose bill affords no exclusivity period to brand biologics. > Energy
and Commerce Health Subcommittee Chairman Frank Pallone, D-N.J., has > signed
on to Waxman's bill, and he listed follow-on biologics among his top
priorities last week in a letter to his colleagues making his bid to > keep
his subcommittee chairmanship. "We need to strike the right balance > between
supporting innovation and making sure patients have timely access to > safe
and lower cost medicines," Pallone wrote. The brand biologics > industry,
represented by the Biotechnology Industry Organization, is behind > the Eshoo
bill. Sources say the group is watching Waxman's next moves carefully,
hoping to see signs he will work with those who lean toward Eshoo and
Inslee.


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LABOR: BIZ GROUPS FRET 'CARD CHECK' WILL HITCH RIDE ON STIMULUS
By Kasie Hunt


Including "card check" legislation in an economic stimulus package > might
spark an early fight between business interests and the Obama
administration, business advocates said today. "We do see some > indications
... of a push to put the Employee Free Choice into a so-called > economic
stimulus package," said Randel Johnson, the U.S. Chamber of Commerce > vice
president for labor. "To impose a sweeping new [card check] law ... > would
hardly stimulate the economy. It would cause employers to curl up in > a ball
and not want to expend further resources on expansion," he said, > adding,
"They're going to need the support of the business community and the
Republicans to solve those economic problems." The Chamber is > gearing up
for a fight over the Employee Free Choice Act -- a bill commonly > known as
card check that would allow workers to unionize if a majority of > them sign
authorization cards. Under current law, an employer can demand a
secret-ballot election before workers can form a union.

While sources said including card check in the stimulus has been > floated
by some labor leaders, AFL-CIO Legislative Director Bill Samuel said > his
organization will not demand the stimulus include card check. "We > really
haven't had specific conversations with the president-elect about > how to
move this legislation," Samuel said. "He knows it's part of an > economic
recovery agenda." But card check "will be a firestorm on Capitol Hill
bordering on an Armageddon between the business community and unions,"
Johnson said. He said businesses would be open to negotiating remedy > and
discrimination provisions in the National Labor Relations Act, but > card
check "is like a moon unto itself, and we're not going to negotiate > based
on that moon," adding, "The Chamber is not talking about compromise > on the
Employee Free Choice Act." Unions aren't, either. "There's no reason > to
compromise. The three parts of the bill respond to specific problems > that
have been apparent for decades now," Samuel said.

The Chamber has an almost $10 million war chest it plans to spend on
grassroots lobbying and TV ads opposing the bill. Johnson said the > TV ads,
which during the election emphasized the consequences of eliminating
secret-ballot elections, will shift to focus on mandatory > arbitration -- a
second piece of the bill that requires the government to negotiate a
binding agreement between unions and employers if they can't agree > on terms
within 120 days. "We're never going to turn over the ability to run a
company to a bunch of government arbitrators," Johnson said. Samuel > said
mandatory arbitration was necessary to get companies to agree to a > first
contract with a union. "The problem with the labor law now is there > is no
incentive for business to agree to a contract. There's no incentive,
there's no time pressure," he said. "They can drag this out for > years, and
they do." The Chamber is also releasing white papers in an attempt to
refute union arguments for card check. One focuses on the claim that a
union job is a ticket to the middle class -- an idea business > advocates
fear might gain traction in the sagging economy.


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REPUBLICANS: CITING TRADE RECORD, REICHERT EYES WAYS AND MEANS SLOT
By Peter Cohn


Rep. Dave Reichert, R-Wash., is making the case to GOP leaders that
consistent pro-business votes on trade and taxes make him the right > choice
for an appointment to the Ways and Means Committee in the 111th > Congress,
despite misgivings about his moderate record. Last week, Reichert
circulated a 12-page memo among House colleagues that cites his > region's
lack of representation on the panel as well, noting that only two
Republicans from Western states are slated to sit on Ways and Means > next
year. "I believe that my selection would bring to the committee > greater
regional representation, a staunch advocate for free trade, and a
consistent voice for keeping taxes low," Reichert wrote in an > introductory
note. The GOP Steering Committee will meet next month, and there > could be
five to seven Republican seats open on Ways and Means to fill, > depending on
how Democrats structure the ratios.

Reichert has sought exclusive committee assignments when they were
available, most recently Appropriations at the beginning of this > year. But
he has been dogged in part by concerns among some in his party that > he was
too moderate for that coveted committee assignment. In 2007, the > last year
for which National Journal House vote ratings are available, Reichert
scored toward the left wing of his party, but to the right overall, > with a
65 percent conservative record versus 35 percent liberal. In his sales
pitch to GOP leaders, Reichert notes that he has been a dependable > vote on
economic policy. "My record in Congress reflects a willingness to work
across party lines to find common ground on issues of importance. > However,
I also understand that there are times that we need to stand firm as a
party and push back against the majority's misguided priorities," he
writes.

Reichert's packet includes photos from an April trip to Colombia with
Trade Representative Schwab and Colombian President Alvaro Uribe, > and his
office cites that trip as helping to cement his position that Ways and
Means is the right committee for him. His memo notes that Reichert
"repeatedly sought to unite members to help bring pending free trade
agreements to the floor for votes," and that he has voted for every > major
trade bill during his time in Congress, including the Central > America Free
Trade Agreement, deals with Oman and Peru, and normal trade > relations with
Vietnam. The memo calls Washington the "most trade-dependent state > in the
nation," home to major employers like Microsoft Corp., Boeing Co.,
Starbucks Corp. and Costco Wholesale. Reichert notes that he has > carried
the GOP banner on various tax and healthcare issues, including > support for
repealing the estate tax and opposing tax increases on private > equity and
hedge fund managers to help pay for alternative minimum tax relief. In
addition, he points to his opposition to cuts in Medicare Advantage
subsidies to private insurers, which Democrats proposed to help expand
children's health insurance and stave off cuts in physician > reimbursements.


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LABOR: INDIAN TRIBES, UNIONS AT LOGGERHEADS OVER PENSIONS FIX
By Peter Cohn


Legislation sought by a range of companies to relieve pension funding
obligations amid dramatic market losses has emerged as a > battleground in a
years-long dispute between unions and Indian tribes over collective
bargaining at tribal casinos. Corporations such as 3M, Whirlpool > Corp.,
Pfizer Inc., Boeing Co. and Ford Motor Co. are among those affected > by the
impasse. "Without immediate relief, companies will be forced to make
enormous unexpected contributions to their pension plans just when > they can
least afford it," American Benefits Council President James Klein > pleaded
in a recent letter to congressional leaders.

The Senate Finance and Health, Education, Labor and Pensions > committees
announced a bipartisan agreement last week on a bill containing the > major
pension fixes sought by industry groups. But it got bogged down almost
immediately because of unrelated provisions, including language long > sought
by Indian tribes clarifying that tribal workers are essentially
governmental rather than commercial employees under federal pension > law.
That would grant tribes sole authority to administer employee benefit
plans, which they consider an inherent right of self-government. > "This is
really an issue of sovereignty," said Dante Desiderio, economic > development
policy specialist at the National Congress of American Indians. To > unions,
putting tribal employees out of the Employee Retirement Income > Security
Act's reach could strip them of worker protections and the ability to
organize. Unions such as the Teamsters and UNITE HERE, which > represents
hotel and restaurant workers, have tried to grow their ranks among > tribal
employees and want to keep them covered under ERISA rather than > tribal law,
sources said. Critics ranging from the Bush White House to House > Education
and Labor Chairman George Miller -- who have not often seen eye to > eye --
argue tribal employees could be left without critical worker > protections
provided by ERISA.

"It is unknown whether any tribes have laws that would approximate > current
legal protections for workers, and it is unknown what rights or > remedies
tribe members and non-tribe members would have in court in benefit
disputes," states a Bush administration memo on the Senate bill. > Miller
also opposes the tribal provision, sources said, but a spokesman > declined
to comment other than to say he supports the underlying pension > funding
relief in the bill. Desiderio contended that tribal governments > "already
provide plans that are very generous for employees" and that tribal > law
adequately protects worker rights.

Tribes won a small victory in the 2006 pension law, which carved out
employees such as police, firefighters and teachers as essentially
governmental. Then, as now, the Senate sought to classify all tribal
employees -- including hotel, casino, service station, convenience-> store
and marina workers -- as governmental. The final House-Senate > compromise
removed the more expansive language except in limited circumstances
outlined by the IRS. Desiderio said the law "has been proven > unmanageable"
and placed burdensome administrative costs on tribal governments. > Industry
sources were hopeful a compromise could be reached in December to > let the
bill pass by unanimous consent. But if not, companies unaffected by > the
tribe-union fight argue the bill should be stripped down to only the > most
urgent pension fixes. A separate dispute over billions of dollars in
business tax breaks added by the Senate will also have to be resolved.


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POLITICS: SEN. MENENDEZ SUCCEEDS SCHUMER AS DSCC CHAIRMAN
By Erin McPike


New Jersey Sen. Robert Menendez has been named chairman of the > Democratic
Senatorial Campaign Committee for the 2010 cycle. In a statement > released
by the DSCC this morning, Majority Leader Reid called the senator "an
aggressive, focused and committed Democrat." He added, "Our Caucus > will be
> well-served by Bob Menendez, whose mastery of policy is matched only > by his
mastery of politics. He was a leader in the House, rising to become > the
third-ranking Democrat there; has already established himself as a > leader
in the Senate; and will continue to lead us in protecting our > incumbents
and electing new Democrats in the future."

Departing DSCC Chairman Charles Schumer of New York tapped Menendez to
serve with him as vice chairman following his election to a full > term in
the 2006 election. Menendez was appointed to his Senate seat after > former
Sen. Jon Corzine was elected governor in 2005. The DSCC's current
communications director and deputy communications director under > Schumer,
Matt Miller and Hannah August, served as communications staffers for
Menendez in 2006. Schumer in recent weeks indicated he was considering
staying on for a third term at the committee, even though Menendez > has been
in line for the job. Asked by CongressDaily in late September > whether he
would be the next chairman, Menendez confirmed that he had had several
serious discussions with Reid about it, and that he would like to > have the
job and did not know of anyone else lining up for it. "But nothing's > been
decided yet," he said then. In a statement today, Menendez > approached the
job with bullishness: "I intend to make sure that we build upon the
majority in Senate that allows us to affect the change we need," he > said.

From the outset, the next cycle has the potential to be another >> strong one
for Democrats. There are few targets in their caucus other than > Reid, but
many more vulnerable Republicans in swing states. Nevertheless, Reid's
vulnerability will put fundraising at a premium, and the GOP is > already
preparing to improve its intake. Outgoing National Republican > Senatorial
Committee Chairman John Ensign of Nevada noted several times toward > the end
of the cycle that he was at a disadvantage in fundraising due to > Schumer's
ease in raising money from New York's financial sector. But Ensign > said he
sees brighter fundraising days ahead for the GOP due to the populous > and
heavily Republican Texas, home to new NRSC Chairman John Cornyn. > Still,
aides point out Menendez will be able to draw on the vast resources of
neighboring New York City and the wealth of New Jersey commuters.


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HILL BRIEFS: HOUSE LEADERS BACK RENZI ON WIRETAPS

Judiciary. House leaders from both sides of the aisle have filed a > brief
that supports a bid by indicted Rep. Rick Renzi, R-Ariz., to bar
prosecutors from using wiretaps and other evidence, arguing that the
material is protected by the Constitution's Speech or Debate clause. > The
leaders filed their brief Monday to U.S. Magistrate Judge Bernardo P.
Velasco in Tucson, Ariz., according to court records. Renzi's trial is
scheduled to begin in March on federal corruption charges stemming
primarily from a land swap in Arizona.


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LABOR: CONRAD, WHITEHOUSE ASK GAO FOR HEALTH COST REPORT

Health. Senate Budget Chairman Kent Conrad and Sen. Sheldon > Whitehouse,
D-R.I., asked GAO today to identify ways states, hospitals and other
countries are bringing healthcare costs down and assess how those > efforts
can be implemented nationwide. "If we as a society fail to control > health
care costs, there will be a detrimental effect on our nation's > economy and
standard of living," the senators wrote. "To improve value in health > care
spending, we must balance our need to control costs with the need to
maintain quality of care." The senators want the information from > GAO in
preparation for congressional undertaking of a major healthcare > overhaul
expected next year. Conrad and Whitehouse wrote that the healthcare > system
must include a focus on prevention and wellness, a payment structure > that
rewards quality and technology improvements. While a junior member > of the
Senate, Whitehouse has claimed a stake in the healthcare debate by
establishing the Rhode Island Quality Institute, which brings > together all
aspects of the healthcare system to produce better results and save > money.


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HILL BRIEFS: FRANKS: OBAMA 'MOST DANGEROUS'

Politics. House Judiciary Constitution Subcommittee ranking member > Trent
Franks, R-Ariz., recently told a business audience that President-> elect
Obama will be "the most dangerous president the country has ever > had." In
Nov. 19 remarks to the Peoria, Ariz., Chamber of Commerce, which were
reported by the Glendale Star, Franks also joked that he had been
"contemplating suicide" after Obama's win, but said he would be > willing to
work with the next president if he believed Obama was doing what was > right
for the country. Spokeswoman Bethany Barker said the lawmaker's > comments
were in reference to Obama's stances on national defense and abortion
rights. She said Franks is committed to "protecting innocent life, > whether
from a ballistic missile overseas or here domestically," and Obama's > stance
on those issues "are just two examples of how he's more radical than > any
president we've had to date." Barker said Franks believes Obama's > proposals
to scale back defense programs show that the incoming president does > not
understand "the threat of Islamic jihad and the nuclear threat of > Iran's
current efforts."


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HILL BRIEFS: PALIN TO CAMPAIGN FOR CHAMBLISS

Senate Races. Alaska Gov. Sarah Palin, this year's GOP vice-> presidential
candidate, will appear in Georgia next Monday on behalf of the re-> election
bid of GOP Sen. Saxby Chambliss, his campaign announced today. "I was
thrilled when I got the call that Gov. Palin would be able to make > the trip
to Georgia to campaign with me the day before the runoff election,"
Chambliss said in a statement. Chambliss finished ahead of his > Democratic
opponent, Jim Martin, by 49.8 percent to 46.8 percent on Nov. 4. But
because neither received an absolute majority, a runoff is being held
Tuesday to determine the winner. Palin will appear on Chambliss' > behalf at
four rallies across the state. A day later, former New York City > Mayor Rudy
Giuliani is scheduled to campaign with Chambliss as voters go to the > polls.
This year's GOP presidential nominee, Arizona Sen. John McCain, and > two
other contenders for this year's presidential nod -- former Arkansas > Gov.
Mike Huckabee and former Massachusetts Gov. Mitt Romney -- also have
visited the state on Chambliss' behalf. Martin, meanwhile, has > brought in
former President Bill Clinton and former Vice President Al Gore. But > there
are currently no plans for President-elect Obama to visit the state,
although Obama has recorded a "robo call" urging voters to support > Martin.


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SENATE RACES: REID, SALAZAR TARGETED, BUT DEMOCRATS SEEM TO HAVE EDGE

(Editor's Note: This is the second of two articles looking at 2010 > Senate
races. The first installment was published Monday.)

Senate Republicans might have a tougher map than Democrats in 2010, > but
the chance to take a shot at Majority Leader Reid in Nevada is one > bright
spot in the next cycle. While outgoing National Republican Senatorial
Committee Chairman John Ensign of Nevada has said he will honor his > pact
with Reid by not saying anything negative about him, he did say last > week
that Reid is a vulnerable candidate and that he would campaign with > Reid's
Republican opponent. In 2004, candidates in the South Dakota Senate > race
spent $36 million even before outside groups and committees waded in > to
help now-GOP Sen. John Thune defeat then-Minority Leader Tom Daschle.
Another top GOP target is freshman Sen. Ken Salazar, D-Colo., whose
opposition to drilling in the Outer Continental Shelf will be > considered a
top issue.

But Democrats feel good about those seats and seem not to worry > about any
of their incumbents beyond Reid and Salazar. As Democratic Senatorial
Campaign Committee spokesman Matt Miller put it, "With Republicans > running
a class of senators headlined by [Louisiana Sen.] David Vitter, 2010 > is
another year where Democrats have the opportunity to be on offense > across
the country."

Democrats have been hesitant to discuss the next cycle, but that might
change now that New Jersey Sen. Robert Menendez has been chosen to > replace
Sen. Charles Schumer of New York as chairman of the Democratic > Senatorial
Campaign Committee. The campaign landscape and the math again seem > to favor
Democrats, giving them at this far-off date another shot at getting > to 60
votes if they fall short in the Minnesota recount and the Georgia > runoff
this year. Democrats will defend 16 seats -- 17 if Sen. Hillary Rodham
Clinton becomes secretary of State -- while Republicans will have 19 > seats
in play. Below is a state-by-state look at Democratic-held seats > that will
be on the ballot in two years. -- by Erin McPike

ARKANSAS

Sen. Blanche Lincoln has run up a string of impressive election > victories
in both the House and Senate since 1992. But she could face a > formidable
foe if former Gov. Mike Huckabee decides to challenge her bid for a > third
Senate term in 2010. "She's definitely running," an aide said. > Huckabee,
who put up a spirited but losing attempt to win the 2008 Republican
presidential nomination, remains a popular figure in Arkansas > politics but
there is no firm word from his camp about his plans. Several others > have
been mentioned as possible contenders but none is a household name > like
Huckabee. Although Sen. John McCain, R-Ariz., defeated President-elect
Obama in the presidential race in Arkansas, 59 percent to 39 > percent, a
Republican seeking Lincoln's Senate seat faces daunting odds. Only one
Republican has captured an Arkansas Senate seat since 1879, Sen. Tim
Hutchinson, and he was the only Republican Senate incumbent beaten > in the
2002 midterm elections. Lincoln, 48, whose family of rice, wheat and > cotton
farmers goes back seven generations in eastern Arkansas, serves on the
Senate Finance, Energy and Natural Resources and Agriculture > committees. --
by Michael Posner

CALIFORNIA

The chances for a competitive race for the Senate in California > hinge on
one question: Will Republican Gov. Arnold Schwarzenegger run? > Democratic
Sen. Barbara Boxer will be seeking a fourth full term. And although > she has
not gained the statewide popularity of her Democratic colleague, Sen.
Dianne Feinstein, Boxer appears to have smooth sailing if > Schwarzenegger,
who cannot run again for governor, does not make a bid.

With that threat on the horizon, Boxer has been raising money
aggressively, banking $3.6 million as of Sept. 30. So far, there is > only
one announced GOP challenger -- Chuck Devore, a member of the state
Assembly from Orange County who is not known statewide. Devore > declared his
candidacy early in November, citing Boxer's opposition to renewing > offshore
oil drilling and the proposition banning same-sex marriages. There > appears
to be little likelihood of a major player other than the governor > getting
into the race. -- by Otto Kreisher

COLORADO

Sen. Ken Salazar who staved off beer baron Pete Coors in 2004 to win > his
seat, is ready to run again, even if he doesn't know which > Republican he
will be running against. Former Rep. Tom Tancredo, who made a > presidential
bid and retired from the House, is known to be interested. And some
Republican slate-makers are hot to put up former Denver Broncos > quarterback
John Elway. But the field remains unsettled on the GOP side in the > wake of
the 2008 election, in which Democratic Rep. Mark Udall won the state's
other Senate seat.

In the next cycle, Salazar will appear on a statewide ballot for the
fourth time since 1998; he was twice elected attorney general before
running for the Senate. He won his first term with 51 percent but has
solidified his hold on the seat with a middle-of-the-road legislative
approach that largely reflects the political balance in Colorado. His
family's deep Hispanic roots also resonate in a state where > Hispanics make
up nearly one-fifth of the population. -- by David Hess

CONNECTICUT

As a liberal in an ever-increasingly blue state, Sen. Christopher Dodd
might be expected to sail toward a record sixth term. But soaring
disapproval ratings are helping fuel speculation that Dodd will not > run
again. While part of the reason for his unpopularity can be traced > to his
role as Banking Committee chairman during the economic crisis, Dodd > is also
tangled in a controversy over a low-interest loan he received from
Countrywide Financial in 2003 that he did not disclose to the Senate > Office
of Government Ethics. Countrywide is one of the subprime mortgage > lenders
that would be assisted by a housing bailout that Dodd proposed on > the floor
in June.

State Republican Chairman Chris Healy said former Rep. Rob Simmons,
Associate Attorney General Kevin O'Connor and U.S. Ambassador to > Ireland
Thomas Foley are most often mentioned by political insiders as > potential
GOP candidates. Eleven-term Rep. Christopher Shays, R-Conn., who lost
re-election this month, has said he does not intend to run again for > public
office but is still mentioned as a potential Senate contender, Healy > said.
-- by Darren Goode

DELAWARE

Democratic Gov. Ruth Ann Minner's decision to appoint Ted Kaufman to
replace Vice President-elect Biden might put the seat in play in > 2010, when
someone will be elected to fill the last four years of Biden's term.
Kaufman, who is a former chief of staff for Biden, said this week he > would
not run in two years, fueling speculation he was named as a > placeholder to
allow Biden's oldest son, state Attorney General Beau Biden, to seek > the
seat in 2010.

The younger Biden departed for Iraq last week as a member of the > Delaware
National Guard, after issuing a statement saying he would be > "fulfilling my
military orders" and would not accept a Senate appointment. But he is
scheduled to return from Iraq late next year, allowing time for a > run. The
vice-president elect, who ran on the presidential ticket and for
re-election to the Senate this year, issued a statement praising > Kaufman
but declaring, "It is no secret that I believe my son ... would make a
great United States senator."

While the state has tilted Democratic in recent years, the coming > months
will measure whether Minner's move will be met with significant voter
blowback. Whether the Democrats hold this seat in 2010 might turn on
whether veteran GOP Rep. Michael Castle, a popular former governor, > decides
to run. Like Kaufman, Castle turns 70 next year -- and suffered a > minor
stroke in 2006. But in public comments since Biden's vice-presidential
nomination, Castle has not ruled out seeking to cap off his long > political
career in the Senate. -- by Louis Peck

HAWAII

At 84, still in good health and soon to be chairman of the powerful
Appropriations Committee, Sen. Daniel Inouye is readying his > formidable
forces to run for the ninth time. Even Hawaii Republicans grant his > stature
as the "godfather of state politics," as one opposition official put > it,
and some doubt whether popular Republican Gov. Linda Lingle -- who > cannot
run for re-election because of term limits -- will challenge Inouye. > One
Republican official, who asked not to be named, said he believes > Lingle
will forego a race and aim instead for unseating Democratic Sen. > Daniel
Akaka in 2012.

There is "no doubt" Inouye is gearing up for another term, his press
secretary said, adding, "He is running for re-election; he said two > years
ago that he intended to do so and nothing has happened to change his > mind."
Discounting speculation that a restless Democratic Rep. Neil > Abercrombie
and former Democratic Rep. Ed Case, a Honolulu attorney, are lusting > for
Inouye's job, insiders say Abercrombie is likely to run for governor > in
2010. Noted Case, who lost a primary to Akaka in 2006, "I've said I'm
interested in running for the Senate, but not if Sen. Inouye runs in > 2010."
-- by David Hess

ILLINOIS

President-elect Obama's rise to the White House opens a Senate seat > for a
long line of Illinois Democrats, who would have to defend the seat > in 2010.
Democratic Gov. Rod Blagojevich might be tempted to reward one of > his few
allies with the appointment, such as state Senate President Emil > Jones or
Reps. Jan Schakowsky, Luis Gutierrez and Danny Davis. Rep. Jesse > Jackson,
Jr., has lobbied heavily for the seat, but he and Blagojevich do not > have a
strong relationship. Other Democratic possibilities are state > Veterans'
Affairs Director Tammy Duckworth, who lost a House race in 2006 and > state
Comptroller Daniel Hynes, who lost to Obama in the 2004 Senate > primary.

Despite a string of election defeats, one Republican operative said > the
party is ready to pounce on the governor's "hand-picked senator" in > the
election. GOP Rep. Mark Kirk is frequently mentioned for the 2010 > race.
Others on the GOP list of prospects are Reps. John Shimkus and Peter
Roskam, state House Minority Leader Tom Cross and DuPage County > State's
Attorney Joe Birkett. -- by Andy Leonatti

INDIANA

Sen. Evan Bayh has twice been passed over as his party's vice > presidential
candidate, including earlier this year by President-elect Obama, but > word
in Indiana is that if Obama offered a high-level position in the
administration, the two-term senator would jump at the chance. Bayh's
unrest and ambition give credence to speculation in Indiana > newspapers and
on blogs that after 10 years he has grown tired of the legislative > branch
and wants to try something else. But Bayh appears to be in good > position if
he seeks a third term, given his $10 million campaign account and > his five
statewide wins, including two for governor.

Potential Republican candidates include Gov. Mitch Daniels and Rep. > Mike
Pence. Daniels was easily re-elected this month with 58 percent and is
viewed as a potential GOP presidential candidate in 2012. Pence is a
staunch conservative. He was re-elected this year with 64 percent > and since
winning his first term with 51 percent in 2000 has never been below 60
percent. Pence will have a higher profile in Congress for the next two
years, when he will serve as chairman of the House Republican > Conference.
And if Daniels is eyeing the Senate, he might wait until 2012, when > his
one-time boss GOP Sen. Richard Lugar, will turn 80 and possibly be > ready
for retirement. -- by Patrick Crowley

MARYLAND

She'll be 74 in 2010, but sources familiar with her thinking say Sen.
Barbara Mikulski, the Senate's senior female, intends to seek a > fifth term.
She has been actively raising funds, and another term would tie her > with
her former Democratic Sen. Paul Sarbanes as the state's longest-> serving
senator. While Mikulski was hospitalized briefly in 2005 for an > irregular
heartbeat, those close to her say she is without any health > problems. In
2004, she faced her most serious challenge since coming to the > Senate in
1986 and defeated wealthy state Sen. E.J. Pipkin by nearly 2-1.

If Mikulski runs, she is not expected to attract serious GOP > opposition.
If she retires, former Gov. Robert Ehrlich, who spent eight years in
Congress, would likely come under party pressure to run. But Ehrlich > might
be eyeing another run for governor in two years against Gov. Martin
O'Malley, a Democrat who defeated Ehrlich two years ago. On the > Democratic
side, a Mikulski retirement could trigger a free-for-all, with Reps. > Elijah
Cummings, C.A. (Dutch) Ruppersberger and Chris Van Hollen among the > leading
contenders. While he has accepted a second term as chairman of the
Democratic Congressional Campaign Committee, Van Hollen last week > pointedly
declined to take himself out of consideration if there is a 2010 > Senate
vacancy. But he also said he did not expect a vacancy to occur. -- > by Louis
Peck

NEVADA

It took less than a week for GOP Lt. Gov. Brian Krolicki to announce > he is
considering challenging Senate Majority Leader Reid in 2010. "This > might be
the moment. We're going to look at this really hard," he said. > Krolicki
stressed the importance of Republicans uniting behind candidates for > all
major races, but there is no guarantee he will have a clear path to > the
nomination. He said Monday that he expects to indicted by the state
attorney general for his handling of a college savings program when > he was
state treasurer. He said that he is being targeted for political > reasons.
Others who might run are GOP Rep. Dean Heller, a former secretary of > State,
and soon-to-be former Rep. Jon Porter, who lost this month. National
Republican Senatorial Committee Chairman John Ensign even touted > state Sen.
Joseph Heck, a physician who has served with the National Guard in > Iraq and
who was narrowly defeated for re-election after Democrats targeted his
seat. "He's got a great profile, a great candidate," said Ensign. > But Reid,
who has built up the state's Democratic Party, will be seeking re-> election
to a fifth term after winning last time by the largest margin of his
career, 61-35 percent. "The Democratic Party is solidly, 100 percent > behind
Sen. Reid," said Nevada Democratic Chairman Sam Lieberman. Reid had > $2.75
million in cash on hand at the end of September after raising $4.5 > million
over the past four years. -- by Keith White

NEW YORK

The Empire State could have two Senate races on the ballot in 2010 > -- a
bid by Democratic Sen. Charles Schumer for a third term and an > election to
fill the last two years of Sen. Hillary Rodham Clinton's term if she
becomes President-elect Obama's secretary of State. Schumer, a > principal
architect of his party's resurgence in the Senate in the past two > cycles,
stepped down this week as chairman of the Democratic Senatorial > Campaign
Committee to focus on his campaign. With Schumer and Clinton in place,
other Democrats looking to move up have been forced to bide their > time, but
a Clinton move to the Cabinet would open the floodgates. The list of
would-be Democratic candidates who might seek a Senate appointment > from
Gov. David Paterson and run in 2010 includes state Attorney General > Andrew
Cuomo, Reps. Kirsten Gillibrand and Brian Higgins and New York City > Council
Speaker Christine Quinn.

Possible Republican contenders for either seat are former New York > Mayor
Rudy Giuliani, former Gov. George Pataki and former Rep. Rick Lazio, > who
lost to Clinton in 2000. Also on some GOP lists are Rep. Peter King, > former
Yonkers Mayor John Spencer, who lost to Clinton in 2006, former > Syracuse
Mayor Roy Bernardi and U.S. Attorney Michael Garcia, who recently > announced
his resignation. New York Mayor Michael Bloomberg, an independent, > might
also run. -- by Terry Kivlan

NORTH DAKOTA

Sen. Byron Dorgan expects to be a candidate for a fourth term in > 2010. "I
am energized by my work in the Senate," he said recently. By the > time of
the next Senate election, Dorgan, who turns 68 in 2010, will have > been held
various offices for nearly 40 years and will have been in the Senate > for 16
years. Dorgan said he expects that by 2010 the economy and energy
development will continue to be big issues and he is quick to point > out his
work on both fronts, including convincing college presidents to set > up a
Red River Valley Research Corridor and steering $500 million in > federal
research money to the state.

North Dakota Republican Party Chairman Gary Emineth acknowledged the > party
has not been able to attract strong candidates against Dorgan, and > that
might be the case again in two years. Emineth said he is trying to > Gov.
John Hoeven, who was just re-elected for a third four-year term, to > run.
Other possible GOP candidates include state Attorney General Wayne
Stenehjem, Public Service Commissioner Kevin Cramer and Drew Wigley, > the
U.S. attorney for North Dakota. -- by Jerry Hagstrom

OREGON

While his name wasn't on the ballot this year, Democratic Sen. Ron > Wyden
was the subject of flattering TV advertising from both parties. Wyden
endorsed successful Democratic Senate candidate Jeff Merkley, who > thought
so much of the endorsement that he ran advertising featuring Wyden > talking
into the camera. Not to be outdone, Merkley's opponent, GOP Sen. > Gordon
Smith, ran his own ads featuring old clips of Wyden praising his > bipartisan
partnership with Smith. Thus, it should come as no surprise that Wyden
seems safe as he prepares to run for a third full term.

At this point, Republicans seem more focused on finding a credible
candidate for governor in 2010, when term limits will bar Democratic > Gov.
Ted Kulongoski from seeking a third term. The gubernatorial vacancy > might
give the GOP its best chance to regain some leverage in how the > state is
run, since both houses of the Oregon Legislature have strong > Democratic
majorities. But, as some Democratic operatives privately fret, the
political situation in the state could be quite different if the Obama
administration founders in its first two years. Under that scenario, > Wyden
could be vulnerable to the same type of campaign that Merkley > successfully
used against Smith this year: tying him to an unpopular president. > -- by
Jeff Mapes

VERMONT

Insiders from both parties expect Democratic Sen. Patrick Leahy, who > will
be 70 in 2010, to seek re-election and to cruise to a record seventh > term.
The only question is whether Republicans will put up much of a > fight, given
Leahy's stature -- he'll be fourth in Senate seniority in January -- > and
his tuned-in reputation on the home front. Nothing Leahy has done in > the
four years since his nearly 3-1 drubbing of Republican businessman > Jack
McMullen provides much ammunition for potential opponents. He remained
strongly opposed to the Iraq war, stuck up for beleaguered Vermont > dairy
farmers and obtained funds for the clean-up of Lake Champlain; in > addition
to serving as chairman of the Senate Judiciary Committee, he will be > second
in line for the chairmanship of the Appropriations panel next year.

Meanwhile, the GOP brand is hurting in a state that was once solidly > red;
Leahy's initial election in 1974 was the first time the state had > sent a
Democrat to the Senate since the Civil War. On Nov. 4, Vermont gave
President-elect Obama a 68-31 percent win; among the 50 states, only
Obama's native Hawaii gave him a larger percentage of the vote. > Possible
GOP challengers include McMullen, Lt. Gov. Brian Dubie -- who is > considered
more likely to seek re-election -- or perhaps a yet-to-surface > candidate
from the private sector. Four-term GOP Gov. Jim Douglas, who gave > Leahy a
competitive race in 1992, is likely to run again for governor in > 2010. --
by Sam Hemingway

WASHINGTON

With Sen. Patty Murray making preliminary moves to run again, state
Republicans are stilling casting about for a candidate. Given her > ability
to raise ample cash and her relentless campaign style, some potential
opponents might be thinking long and hard about whether to enter the > race.
One name in play is former state Sen. Dino Rossi, who is still nursing
wounds from bruising back-to-back losses to incumbent Gov. Christine
Gregoire. Though he lost both races, he ran ahead of President Bush > in 2004
and Sen. John McCain this year.

Another prominent prospect is Mike McGavick, a millionaire > businessman and
former chief of staff to former Sen. Slade Gorton. McGavick managed
Gorton's campaign in 2000, when now-Sen. Maria Cantwell narrowly beat
Gorton. McGavick himself lost to Cantwell six years later, 57 > percent to 40
percent. "At this time," said Dan Cathers, Thurston County Republican
chairman, "no one has expressed a clear interest in running." -- by > David
Hess

WISCONSIN

Republicans are looking to change their recent fortunes in this > state. In
the last election, they lost control of the state Assembly and hold > only
one statewide elected office. Against that background, Democratic Sen.
Russell Feingold is expected to seek a fourth term. While liberal, > he is
known somewhat as a maverick. "Russ is not your prototypical > politician. He
matches to what he believes is the people's will," said state > Democratic
Chairman Joe Wineke, who noted Feingold has never lost an election.

Republicans are tightlipped about who they think will challenge > Feingold,
but one name sure to be at the top of the wish list is GOP Rep. Paul > Ryan,
ranking member of the House Budget Committee. He is a favorite of > House
conservatives and was urged to take on House Minority Leader Boehner > for
leadership this year, but declined. He also resisted White House > attempts
to get him to run against Feingold in 2004. A spokesman said Ryan > has not
given serious thought to the race and is focused on his current job.

Former Gov. Tommy Thompson, who considered challenging Democratic Sen.
Herb Kohl in 2006, might consider another bid for statewide office,
although he has indicated he might be eyeing a return to the > governor's
mansion. Democratic Gov. Jim Doyle will be up for re-election in 2010.
Former GOP Rep. Mark Green, who is ambassador to Tanzania, is also > viewed
as possible statewide candidate. Green lost the governor's race to > Doyle in
2006. -- by Chuck Jordan


http://www.nationaljournal.com/congressdai...081125_1777.php

-----
THE FINAL WORD: THE FINAL WORD

"Find your niche. Be passionate."

-- Retiring Rep. Tom Tancredo, R-Colo., on advice he has for his
successor, GOP Rep.-elect Mike Coffman, as reported today by the Rocky
Mountain News.


http://www.nationaljournal.com/congressdai...0081125_9345.ph