Mumbai Terror Attacks: "Agencies Yet to Learn Hard Lessons' By Animesh Roul Originaly Published as [i]'Agencies yet to learn hard lessons' in
Sunday MiD Day, Mumbai, 30-11-2008[/i]
FOR almost over sixty hours, Mumbai, the financial capital of India, witnessed a series of terrorist attacks, multiple hostage crisis, mindless killings, fierce gun battles and at the end, a disrupted life. The terrorists have struck major targets including luxury hotels and a Jewish Center frequented by Westerners and elite Indian only to be holed up later inside these buildings with innocent civilians as hostage. Their demand was the safe release of Mujahideen held in Indian prisons. Prior to this, they also have targeted at least seven more places and went on a killing spree on that fateful Wednesday evening.
An unknown outfit, Deccan Mujahideen claimed responsibility for the attacks. However, for quite some time now, this name-game has been a part of Pakistan based terror groups' desperate attempt to give a homegrown Indian flavor to this ongoing Jihadi-terrorism in the region. Of course a collusive local hand is quite possible in this sort of terror operations, primarily for logistical support. Looking at the whole incident, it is beyond doubt that these highly trained terrorists have undergone specialised terror training at various camps located somewhere in Pakistan administered Kashmir or Karachi.
As evidences are forthcoming following the arrests of some Pakistani nationals including one Mohammad Ajmal Amir Kasab who was apprehended from the besieged Taj Mahal hotel, the needle of suspicion pointed strongly at the Pakistan-based and Kashmir-centric Islamist group, Lashkar-e-Toiba (Army of the Pure). Even though this LeT denied any hand in this carnage, its footprints are quite evident.
It doesn't take any great wisdom to believe that Pakistan based and Kashmir centric terror tanzeems are behind most of the terrorist acts perpetrated on Indian soil. Among them, Lashkar-e-Toiba, Jaish-e-Muhammad and Harkat-ul-Jihad Islami have been leading from the front in the so called Islamic Jihad against India. With strong Saudi Wahabi link and proximity to the notorious ISI, LeT's activities are not always clandestine in Pakistan. It operates openly with its so called political wing Jamat- ud- Dawa, nurturing dreams for a 'God's government' on the lines of Sharia laws in Pakistan and elsewhere. It preaches Armed Jihad as shortest route to reach god and heaven. LeT is the one which has introduced such type of Fidayeen missions in Jammu and Kashmir and intermittently striking India's heartlands with its tactics of indiscriminate shooting and grenade attacks.
Mumbai is always vulnerable to terrorism and gang violence for its business potential and porous sea coasts. We have experienced number of terrorist attacks in the past including 1993 serial blasts and 2006 serial train blasts. The latest events stand out as the most severe terrorist act. Meanwhile, the death toll in latest Mumbai mayhem has reached 195 including 22 foreign nationals and 15 security forces at the end of the prolonged and biggest terror fight the country has ever seen. While nearly 300 of them sustained physical injuries, millions of them get scarred for life.
There is obviously a growing concern that terrorists have uniquely used all possible types of terror tactics in Mumbai, ranging from hostage taking, driving explosive laden cars, using sea routes, indiscriminately shooting at civilians and using grenades to maximise the damage.
The Mumbai attacks didn't involve suicide bombers, but motivated Fidayeens (death squads), as propagated by Lashkar-e-Toiba which supports the later terror tactics as Islamic. According to JuD/Lashkar-e-Toiba's spokesperson, Abdullah Muntazir, who denied any involvement in Mumbai attacks, said on earlier occasions that a Fidayeen must complete their mission even in the worst circumstances. Quite plausibly Muntazir's definition, who is desperately trying to salvage JuD's public image, matches the recent operations in Mumbai.
Arguably, there has been a massive intelligence failure as Indian security agencies were caught napping again when metropolises like Mumbai, Bangalore and Delhi, country's political and financial centres have always been an obvious target for terrorists who want to cripple the country from all possible fronts. Just after the 9/11 event in the US, Indian intelligence agencies received reports about an ongoing marine training of LeT operatives to infiltrate India's porous sea borders. Again couple of years ago, Indian Coast Guards apprehended Lashkar's seaborne terrorists, off the Mumbai coast. But Indian agencies have never learned the hard lessons. The irony is both Intelligence and security agencies only claim to have uncovered plots and neutralised terror sleeper cells, but never reached to the roots perhaps due to lack of political willingness or technological backwardness.
Always under severe criticism for a weak-kneed response to situations like Mumbai and inept handling of investigations, for the first time, India did not negotiate with terrorists and went on hot pursuit.
At this hour of national crisis, many fear that it could escalate into an Indo-Pakistani crisis as blame game has already begun at the highest level. However, the Islamabad administration has quickly stepped up damage control exercise by promising support in the investigations.
And now the battle is over, the investigating agencies would piece things together to get a clear picture of what had happened and how to fight this menace again in future. One thing is for sure that to outsmart terror groups, like LeT, it has to resort to proper investigations backed by human and technical intelligence rather than only rhetoric, false claims and complacency.
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Animesh Roul is Executive Director, Society for the Study of Peace and Conflict, New Delhi« Close It
November 30, 2008 06:42 AM
Link TrackBack (0) Print Mumbai Whodunnit: Names vs. Networks By Aaron Mannes Following the tenets of Journalism 101, the first question about the Mumbai attacks was “who?” Most of the speculation has focused on Lashkar-e-Toiba (LeT), although their
spokesperson and the
spokesperson of their political wing (reported by CTBlog’s Evan Kohlmann) have both denied their organization’s involvement. The reality is that the structures supporting this attack go beyond specific organizations.
In a prescient article, “The Supporting Structures of Pakistan’s Proxy War in Jammu & Kashmir,” in the June 2001 issue of
Strategic Analysis (a journal of India’s
Institute for Defence Studies & Analysis - the article is not a available online) the author, Ajay Darshan Behra argues:
The supporting structures for the proxy war in J&K are much more complex and go beyond Pakistan's unstated policies or strategic objectives. Some of these structures have developed their own dynamics… Since the end of the Cold War, these structures have embedded themselves deeply in the political economy of the region. The Pakistani state does not control them but merely exercises influence over them and is able to exploit them to serve its own strategic designs. It is due to the advantages accruing from these structures that Pakistan has been able to engage India militarily for more than a decade through a proxy war, with little cost to itself. Thus, there may be a grain of truth in Gen Musharraf's statement that the Pakistan Army is unable to stop militants from crossing the LOC. The Pakistani ruling elites are not in complete control of the supporting structures for terrorism, which they have been using for their proxy war in J&K. Because of the above factors, jehad and terrorism in J&K are likely to continue even if the Pakistani ruling elites give assurances about the withdrawal of their support.
The primary factors identified are: the extensive illicit arms trade within Pakistan which ensures that there is an endless supply of weapons, the uncontrollable sources of funding - particularly narcotics trafficking and donations both from within Pakistan and from around the world, and the tens of thousands of radical madrassas that indoctrinate Pakistani youth into radical Islam from Pakistan’s bottomless well of unemployed. The author does not discuss some other related factors, such as the complex geography (particularly the mountainous terrain), which makes controlling substantial parts of the country and particularly the Line of Control (LOC) in Kashmir a daunting problem.
Read the complete post. November 30, 2008 12:59 AM
Link TrackBack (0) Print November 29, 2008 Dawood Ibrahim's Name Again Surfaces With Latest Mumbai Terrorist Attack By Victor Comras It’s much too early to identify the group or groups involved in the Mumbai terrorist attack or to place blame for what has occurred. Identification will come with the expert police investigation and intelligence gathering now underway. But, at this stage we are all just involved in a process of speculation - drawing on past experience with terrorist modis operandi to explain what occurred and exploring the various various possibilities and theories. Among the possible culprits being considered are several Pakistan based Islamic extremist organizations such as Lashkar-e-Tayyiba; Al Qaeda-linked or wannabe groups, and India home grown terrorist groups. One thing appears clear - the attack was well planned and organized, and that requires reliance on a sophisticated network for recruitment, logistics, training and financing. Some Indian terrorist experts suggest that Dawood Ibrahim may well be linked to organizing and financing this attack just as he did for the 1993 Mumbai stock exchange terrorist bombings.
Dawood Ibrahim (birthname Sheikh Dawood Ibrahim Kaskar), for years headed the
D-Company which ran a substantial hawala operation out of Mumbai, Karachi and Dubai. He reportedly moved easily between various Islamic extremist groups and Indian crime syndicates, and is believed to have acted as an Al Qaeda surrogate for several financial transactions and arms and drug smuggling deals. He was
designated by the US Treasury Department as a global terrorist in October 2003, and
listed as an Al Qaeda associate by the UN Al Qaeda and Taliban Sanctions Committee on November 3, 2003. According to the Treasury Department “Dawood Ibrahim, an Indian crime lord, has found common cause with Al Qaida, sharing his smuggling routes with the terror syndicate and funding attacks by Islamic extremists aimed at destabilizing the Indian government. He is wanted in India for the 1993 Bombay Exchange bombings and is known to have financed the activities of Lashkar-e-Tayyiba (Army of the Righteous), a group designated by the United States in October 2001 and banned by the Pakistani Government…” See also Treasury Fact Sheet on Dawood Ibrahim
here.
Ibrahim's current whereabouts is unknown. He is believed by some to have been given safehaven in Pakistan, perhaps in the Frontier Territories, although there have been some reports of his having been arrested by Pakistan authorities several years ago. Pakistan denies these reports and maintains that he has not been given any safehaven anywhere in Pakistan.
You can find more information about Dawood Ibrahim in articles posted last year by my colleagues
Aaron Mannes and
Doug Farah.
November 29, 2008 08:12 PM
Link TrackBack (0) Print November 28, 2008 Jamat-ud-Dawa (LET Political Wing) on Mumbai Attacks: "Not a Legitimate Tactic" By Evan Kohlmann In the aftermath of this week's terrorist attacks in Mumbai, Indian government officials and media outlets have already begun pointing a finger at Islamic militants in neighboring Pakistan -- particularly an organization known as Lashkar-e-Taiba (LET). The LET
has been designated by the U.S. government as a proscribed foreign terrorist organization -- along with its accused political wing, Jamat-ud-Dawa (JUD).
Earlier this evening, I spoke via telephone with the official representative of JUD,
Abdullah Muntazir, to discuss the situation in Mumbai and mounting allegations of involvement by LET and/or Pakistani Islamists. Muntazir strongly denied these charges, referring to the attacks as an "internal problem" for India. He repeatedly insisted to me, "we have nothing to do with it", and blamed Indian "propaganda" for "divert[ing] the attention of the public media" --- which he described as "their usual practice." Interestingly, during our conversation, Muntazir went even further and actually condemned the events that have taken place in Mumbai as needless "carnage": "Islam does not permit killing civilian people." He added, "I don't think that this is a legitimate tactic."
November 28, 2008 12:01 AM
Link TrackBack (0) Print November 27, 2008 Mayhem in Mumbai: India Reels Under Another Terror Attack By Frank Hyland & Animesh Roul This column is another in the ongoing series on the terrorist threat to India and the surrounding region by Frank Hyland and Animesh Roul. Almost a day after Mumbai was struck by multiple terrorist attacks, a warlike situation still prevails on the ground, as security forces continue evacuating hostages. The Ministry of Home Affairs has confirmed 125 deaths and 327 injuries in the country's biggest and now the longest-ever terror seige. At least 14 police personnel are known have been killed in the attacks, including, reportedly, two of the nation’s highest ranking anti-terror policemen. The dead also included six foreigners. Five suspected terrorists have been captured thus far; five others were killed, while three reportedly have escaped. The terrorists, who came probably from Pakistan via the sea route, dodging the coast guard, and struck targets such as the Leopold Cafe, Hotel Oberoi and Taj International, Colaba Wadi, the BMC office, Cama Hospital, GT Hospital, Nariman House, Vidhan Bhavan. Hundreds of people were held hostage in the Taj hotel, the Trident hotel and Nariman house. Hundreds of those hostages were evacuated from the Hotels and from the Nariman house, a Jewish Center run by Chabad Lubavitch group. At the Trident Oberoi, security forces had evacuated 60 hostages and some 400 stranded guests as of Thursday evening. Terrorists holed up inside the Taj hotel with hostages demanded earlier in the day the release of all terrorists (Mujahedeen) held in Indian prisons. One of those was identified as a member of Deccan Mujahedeen group, which was born out of a desperate attempt to give more of a homegrown Indian flavor to this ongoing Jihadi-type terrorism.
Deadly Cargo: Sometime ago, proposals from Pakistan were put forth to make Mumbai and Karachi sister cities for their shared common features and geographical proximity. There was also a plan for regular ferry service between the two cities. The idea, perhaps born out of good intentions, turned out to be the route used by Pakistan-based terrorists who used the sea routes to reach the Mumbai coast on November 26th, then wreaking havoc.
As pointed out earlier, the latest Mumbai terror events have been perpetrated by the Lashkar e Toiba-affiliated (LeT) Kashmir-centric Islamist group. Some accounts point the finger at Al-Qa’ida as instigators and supporter. Even though the Pakistan-based militant group denied any hand in the Mumbai Mayhem, its footprints are quite evident. One Abdullah Gaznavai, LeT chief spokesman denied any involvement or association with these attacks. At least 10 of the terrorists affiliated with the Lashkar-e-Toiba and reached south Mumbai had arrived in inflatable speed boats, landing near Sasson Dock, very near to the Taj Continental Hotel. Two Pakistani ships -- MV Al Kabir and MV Alpaha -- are suspected to have transported terrorists, playing the role of 'Mother Ship', and have been detained after a joint operation by the Border Security Force and Navy Coast guards.
Intelligence Failure, Again! The Mumbai attacks were a well-planned and coordinated series of terrorist attacks, as AK47-wielding terrorists with grenades in their backpacks targeted a number of high-profile locations frequented by Westerners and wealthy Indians. It appears to have been a massive intelligence failure as Indian security agencies were caught napping, this despite reports that Indian Authorities had been aware for some time of rumors of an impending attack, including even mention of the Taj Mahal Hotel. Interrogation of at least one perpetrator reportedly confirmed to Indian Authorities suspicions of the Pakistan-related origin of the plot. Despite the repeated failure of the Intelligence the administration’s public response thus far appears to be curiously complacent. The Country's Prime Minister Manmohan Singh and Intelligence officials pointed fingers very cautiously at an 'outside force', an obvious reference to Pakistan-centric terrorist groups. Manmohan Singh promised tough measures to take on the terrorists, including that of setting up a federal investigating agency.
Click on image below for map of attacks 
November 27, 2008 10:58 PM
Link TrackBack (0) Print Twitter comes of age reporting on Mumbai attacks By Roderick Jones The micro-blogging service Twitter has been providing updates to the attacks in Mumbai.
Link to Twitter feed. Some of the commentary and links are off-base but it is a fascinating view into how the 'crowd' can monitor and report on real-time events. For example, there is a link posted to a 'google doc' spreadsheet listing known casualties.
Link here. Terrorist attacks may remain disturbingly similar but the way they are reported and examined changes in step with the rapid pace of virtualization.
November 27, 2008 12:39 PM
Link TrackBack (0) Print November 26, 2008 Mumbai Terror attacks: Urban Jihad comes to India By Walid Phares As we write this short early assessment of the Terror attacks in Mumbai, events are still unforlding in the financial capital of the sub Indian region. Counter Terrorism units are battling armed elements inside several buildings including the Taj Hotel where hostages have been seized, including foreigners. My first round of monitoring included a discussion with our colleague Animesh Roul who has also posted a report on CTB. I must credit a number of facts and assumptions to him including the projection that the perpetrators -although calling themselves Deccan Mujahideen- are in fact members or trained by Lashkar e Toiba/SIMI (who according to Animesh Roul now call themselves Indian Mujahideen). Here is the condensed report I discussed on Fox News, the BBC, Russia Today TV and other international outlets.
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Type of Operation According to sources in Mumbai, armed groups and individuals have attacked at least ten (if not more) targets inside the city including the Taj Hotel, Oberoi Hotel, a railway Station, the Leopold Café and other locations. More shooting incidents have been also reported at the Trident hotel, a hospital and a highway leading to the airport and Assembly Hall. The terrorists fired indiscriminately against civilians, security elements, lobbed grenades, and killed Counter Terrorism officials. At this writing sources are reporting more than 102 deaths, amd hundreds wounded, in addition to hostage taking. Indian security sources confirmed the use of AK-47s, small arms, grenade, etc. This type of operation, involving a number of small groups and individuals "deployed" across several avenues, In my book Future Jihad I coined these types of forthcoming strikes as "urban Jihad" (Chapter 13). Instead of bombers and suicide bombers, the command sends "Jihadi infantry." The tactical goal of these actions is to engage in different types of missions: random kilings, chaos, killing of security officers and hostage taking.
Design of the operations In our estimate, this attack is a “complex” type, where small operations are aimed at creating chaos and triggering security deployment in many areas, while more precise operations could target higher targets such as hostage taking or similar situation. We will probably know more when the dust will settle.
Perpetrators In view of the historical context, precedents and latest analysis, the most likely groups that may be behind these attacks are the Lashkar e Toiba/SIMI (they now call themselves Indian Mujahideen). These groups are Jihadists, have links to the other organizations in Kashmir but also inside Pakistan with pro-Taliban elements and eventually Al Qaeda. The ideological identification is most likely Jihadist although the group almost surely will issue a more than one release to claim the attack and put it in context.
According to Indian sources this is an operation of a very new type in India. The "emirs" have sent these armed elements in their 20s to strike at Indian psyche. One goal is to sink the Pakistani-Indian rapprochement. In Islamabad, the new Government is engaged in operations against the big Jihadi boys ojn the north western frontier. It is quite possible that the Mumbai attacks aim at triggering tensions between the two old foes so that pressure would be released against the radicals in Pakistan. In any event, this is a large Jihadi operation against one of the emerging economies and the largest democraciy n Asia. The goal is to target India as a power engaged in the War on Terror but also to further destabilize the region, including Pakistan and its neighbor Afghanistan.”
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Dr Walid Phares is the Director of the Future Terrorism Project at the Foundation for the Defense of Democracies.
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November 26, 2008 11:18 PM
Link TrackBack (0) Print India's Financial Hub Mumbai under Multiple Terror Attacks! By Animesh Roul Co-Editor's Note: See the "Newslinks" box for links to updated news on the attacks. -------
Suspected Islamic terrorists have attacked at least eight places in Mumbai, the financial hub of India on November 26 evening. They fired indiscriminately, and lobbed grenades around while making their way to Hotels and Railway Stations and Airport. At least 60 people, many foreigners have reportedly died and nearly 150 injured in these terror attacks.
Times of India report quoting hospital sources, indicated that at least 80 people were dead and 250 injured in the terror attacks. There are unconfirmed reports of a Hostage situation also in Taj Mahal and Oberoi Hotels (with most foreign guests). The first incident of firing was reported at Leopold Cafe, a well-known watering hole for tourists and foreigners in Colaba. The second incident was near Taj Mahal hotel, the third was near Oberoi hotel in Nariman Point and the fourth one was at Chhatrapati Shivaji Terminus railway station. Also a major blast was also reported in Vile Parle in suburban Mumbai. As per the latest reports around 15 people, half of them foreigners are taken hostage on the roof of the Taj Mahal Hotel.
The needle of the suspicion is on the Lashkar- e- Toiba and Student Islamic Movement of India combine (Now they credibly calling and proving them as Indian Mujahedeen terror group).
The incidents took place one day after the reported arrest of
Lashkar -e-Toiba linked Raheel Sheikh by the Interpol in London. Raheel is one of the alleged masterminds of the conspiracy and was involved in the funding of the July 11, 2006, Mumbai serial train blasts that killed nearly 200 commuters and wounded over 500 people on that fateful day.
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Media Reports on the Terror Strikes:
Multiple attacks in Mumbai, 80 dead, hostages taken Mumbai terror attack: top floor of Hotel Taj on fire ATS chief, over 50 others killed in Mumbai terror strikes Mumbai under attack: 60 dead, 200 injured « Close It
November 26, 2008 02:26 PM
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