Great Depression Unemployment Didn't Hit 25 Percent Overnight Posted Dec 05, 2008 02:26pm EST by
Henry Blodget
A few months ago, when you dared raise the specter of a second Great Depression, most people responded that the current mess is completely different from the Depression because in those days we had 25% unemployment. Here are the problems with that argument.
First, unemployment stats are calculated differently now. If we calculated unemployment the same way we did in the Depression, our unemployment rate would be much higher.
Second, unemployment during the Depression didn't get to 25% overnight. It got there over three years, during which most people never dreamed it would get anywhere near that high. When unemployment started its run to 25% then, it was lower than it was last year.
In 1929, unemployment was below 5%. By the end of 1930, as
the New York Times reveals, it had risen to just below 10%. The following year it hit 16%. In 1932, it was 24%. And in 1933, it peaked at 25%. It then took 19 years to get back to the pre-crash low.
As
today's depressing jobs report showed, unemployment is now rising rapidly. Not as rapidly as in 1930, but rapidly. With luck (and good policy), this time it will peak below 10%, hopefully well below. But it's too early to be certain.
If you're looking for reasons why the current crisis won't end up being anything like the Great Depression, however, today's 6.7% unemployment rate shouldn't come as much comfort.