QUOTE(jeffmoskin @ Mar 19 2009, 05:52 PM)

QUOTE(heart @ Mar 19 2009, 04:34 PM)

I agree that the bonuses are a diversion, but I don't think members of congress had/have the necessary skill set to understand the complex nature of the financial products in question.
I would submit that if Alan Greenspan didn't understand these instruments, it was unlikely that congress could.
Greenspan didn't understand?
they are BETS.
GAMBLING.
Insurance policies without the rock of gibraltar.Here is a summary of what Alan Greenspan and the U.S. Congress knew about the complex nature of the financial products in question back on October 1, 1998:
* Of course, a fire sale that transfers wealth from one set of sophisticated market players to another, without any impact on the financial system overall, should not be a concern for the central bank.
* The troubles of LTCM were not a complete surprise to its counterparties.
After all, LTCM's earlier statements regarding its August losses were well known, and sophisticated counterparties understood the difficulties in closing out large losing positions.
In addition, the commercial banks among its creditors had already begun taking normal precautionary measures associated with exposure to counterparties whose condition is deteriorating.
* Of course, any time that there is public involvement that softens the blow of private-sector losses--even as obliquely as in this episode--the issue of moral hazard arises.
Any action by the government that prevents some of the negative consequences to the private sector of the mistakes it makes raises the threshold of risks market participants will presumably subsequently choose to take.
Over time, economic efficiency will be impaired as some uneconomic investments are undertaken under the implicit assumption that possible losses may be borne by the government.
* The private creditors and counterparties in the rescue package chose to preserve a sliver of equity for the original owners--one tenth--so that some of the management would have an incentive to stay with the firm to assist in the liquidation of the portfolio.
Regrettably, the creditors felt that, given the complexity of market bets woven into a bewildering arrray of financial contracts, working with the existing management would be far easier than starting from scratch.
* First, how much dependence should be placed on financial modeling, which, for all its sophistication, can get too far ahead of human judgment?
This decade is strewn with examples of bright people who thought they had built a better mousetrap that could consistently extract an abnormal return from financial markets.Some succeed for a time.
But while there may occasionally be misconfigurations among market prices that allow abnormal returns, they do not persist.
Indeed, efforts to take advantage of such misalignments force prices into better alignment and are soon emulated by competitors, further narrowing, or eliminating, any gaps.
No matter how skillful the trading scheme, over the long haul, abnormal returns are sustained only through abnormal exposure to risk. * Second, what steps could counterparties have taken to ensure that they had properly estimated their exposure, particularly in markets that are volatile?
To an important degree, the creditors of LTCM were induced to infuse capital into the firm because they failed to stress test their counterparty exposures adequately and therefore underestimated the size of the uncollateralized exposure that they could face in volatile and illiquid markets.In part, this also reflected an underappreciation of the volume and nature of the risks LTCM had undertaken and its relative size in the overall market.
By failing to make those determinations, its fellow market participants failed to put an adequate brake on LTCM's use of leverage.To be sure, sometimes decisions are based on judgments about the soundness of borrowers that are accepted from third parties or, possibly in this case, that are founded on the impressive qualifications of LTCM's principals.
In some cases, such truncated risk appraisals may be accurate, but they are not a substitute for a rigorous analysis by the lender of the borrower's overall credit worthiness and risk profile. * Third, in this regard what lessons are there for bank regulators?Domestic commercial bank exposure to LTCM included both direct lending and acting as counterparties to the firm in derivatives contracts.
A preliminary review of bank dealings with LTCM suggests that the banks have collateral adequate to cover most of their current mark-to-market exposures with LTCM.
The unexpected surge in risk aversion and the dramatic opening up of interest rate spreads in August obviously caught LTCM wrong footed.
Counterparties, including banks, continued to collect collateral for marks to market.
What they were not collateralized against was the losses that might have occurred when prices moved even further and market liquidity dried up in a fire sale.
Supervisors of banks and security firms must assess whether current procedures regarding stress testing and counterparty assessment could have been improved to enable counterparties to take steps to insulate themselves better from LTCM's debacle.
More important will be the assessment of whether those procedures are adequate for the future.
But this is an area in which much work has been ongoing.During the fourth quarter of 1997 and the first quarter of 1998, supervision staff of the Federal Reserve Bank of New York and the Board met with managers at several major New York banking institutions to discuss their current relationships with hedge funds, updating a similar study conducted 3-1/2 years earlier.
* Fourth, does the fact that investors have lost most of their capital and creditors may take some losses on their exposure to LTCM call for direct regulation of hedge funds?
It is questionable whether hedge funds can be effectively directly regulated in the United States alone.
While their financial clout may be large, hedge funds' physical presence is small.
Given the amazing communication capabilities available virtually around the globe, trades can be initiated from almost any location.
Indeed, most hedge funds are only a short step from cyberspace.
Any direct U.S. regulations restricting their flexibility will doubtless induce the more aggressive funds to emigrate from under our jurisdiction.
The best we can do in my judgment is what we do today: Regulate them indirectly through the regulation of the sources of their funds.
We are thus able to monitor far better hedge funds' activity, especially as they influence U.S financial markets.If the funds move abroad, our oversight will diminish.
In the first line of risk defense, if I may put it that way, are hedge funds' lenders and counterparties.
Commercial and investment banks especially have the analytic skills to judge the degree of risk to which the funds are exposed. Their self interest has, with few exceptions but including the one we are discussing today, controlled the risk posed by hedge funds.
Banking supervisors are the second line of risk defense in their examination of lending procedures for safety and soundness.We neither try, nor should we endeavor, to micro-manage bank lending activity.
We have nonetheless built up significant capabilities in evaluating the complex lending practices in OTC derivatives markets and hedge funds.