QUOTE
News: Election 2004: N.E.P. Adds Hundreds of Voters to Exit Poll Sample Without Proof These Voters Were Interviewed, Poll's Veracity Now Unconfirmable
By ADVOCATE STAFF
Warren Mitofsky has told America how many voters he polled in his National Election Pool (N.E.P.) Exit Poll of November 2nd, 2004.
In fact, that number is still available on his website: 12,219.
11,719 in-person voters.
Plus 500 absentee voters.
The statement on the Mitofsky website (see link, below) is unequivocal: "The National exit poll was conducted at a sample of 250 polling places among 11,719 Election Day voters representative of the United States. In addition, 500 absentee and/or early voters in 13 states were interviewed in a pre-election
telephone poll."
Mitofsky does not state that the N.E.P. "planned" to interview 12,219 total voters -- he said it had already happened. Find the proof here:
Method Statement, National Election Pool Exit Polls, November 2nd, 2004 http://www.exit-poll.net/election-night/Me...tionalFinal.pdf
By November 4th, however, The Washington Post was reporting -- in an official correction, no less -- that "a total of 13,047 randomly selected voters were interviewed Tuesday [by the N.E.P.] as they left their polling places."
This figure was and is, of course, 1,328 non-absentee voters higher than the amount the N.E.P. was itself claiming on Election Day to have interviewed. And the Washington Post makes no mention of any absentee voters having been queried at all. Find the proof here:
"New Woes Surface in Use of Estimates," Washington Post, Richard Morin, 11/4/04 http://www.washingtonpost.com/wp-dyn/artic...0-2004Nov3.html
But wait. It gets better. Trying to figure out how 12,219 became 13,047?
How does 12,403 grab you?
According to CBS's web-site, Mitofsky's "Method Statement" for the National Election Pool Exit Poll doesn't say that 12,219 voters were interviewed. Indeed, CBS re-published Mitofsky's Method Statement with a completely different sample size, 12,403. Find the proof here:
Method Statement, National Election Pool Exit Polls, November 2nd, 2004 (CBS Version) http://www.cbsnews.com/htdocs/pdf/methods.pdf
Okay, so which was it -- did the only national exit poll in America on November 2nd, 2004 query 12,219 voters? 13,047 voters? 12,403 voters?
How about 13,660 voters? Yes, indeed, the story gets even better.
According to CBS's actual election web-site -- not its exit poll documentation -- 13,660 voters were questioned by the N.E.P on Election Day. Find the proof here:
CBS Election 2004 Web-Site http://election.cbsnews.com/election2004/p...__all_us0.shtml
So how is it, in a business -- exit-polling -- in which numbers are everything, Mitofsky, CBS, and the Washington Post can't agree on the sample size for the nation's only general election exit poll?
Was it:
a ) 12,219
b ) 13,047
c ) 12,403
d ) 13,600
And when the N.E.P. releases its exit poll data in late January, which poll will they release?
And is there any correlation between the fact that Democratic presidential candidate John F. Kerry won Mitofsky's original exit poll, and the fact that now -- months later -- no one seems to agree on a pivotal, in fact a central issue in the conduct of the poll itself: the sample size?
Is the N.E.P. manipulating its sample size data to pave the way for an inaccurate rendering of its Election Day findings when the Poll is released in late January?
Well, don't let them do it.
When the Poll is released, demand that the N.E.P. explain the discrepancies in its sample size data.
[The Advocate wishes to thank Advocate reader Luke Ryland for contributing to this article].
By ADVOCATE STAFF
Warren Mitofsky has told America how many voters he polled in his National Election Pool (N.E.P.) Exit Poll of November 2nd, 2004.
In fact, that number is still available on his website: 12,219.
11,719 in-person voters.
Plus 500 absentee voters.
The statement on the Mitofsky website (see link, below) is unequivocal: "The National exit poll was conducted at a sample of 250 polling places among 11,719 Election Day voters representative of the United States. In addition, 500 absentee and/or early voters in 13 states were interviewed in a pre-election
telephone poll."
Mitofsky does not state that the N.E.P. "planned" to interview 12,219 total voters -- he said it had already happened. Find the proof here:
Method Statement, National Election Pool Exit Polls, November 2nd, 2004 http://www.exit-poll.net/election-night/Me...tionalFinal.pdf
By November 4th, however, The Washington Post was reporting -- in an official correction, no less -- that "a total of 13,047 randomly selected voters were interviewed Tuesday [by the N.E.P.] as they left their polling places."
This figure was and is, of course, 1,328 non-absentee voters higher than the amount the N.E.P. was itself claiming on Election Day to have interviewed. And the Washington Post makes no mention of any absentee voters having been queried at all. Find the proof here:
"New Woes Surface in Use of Estimates," Washington Post, Richard Morin, 11/4/04 http://www.washingtonpost.com/wp-dyn/artic...0-2004Nov3.html
But wait. It gets better. Trying to figure out how 12,219 became 13,047?
How does 12,403 grab you?
According to CBS's web-site, Mitofsky's "Method Statement" for the National Election Pool Exit Poll doesn't say that 12,219 voters were interviewed. Indeed, CBS re-published Mitofsky's Method Statement with a completely different sample size, 12,403. Find the proof here:
Method Statement, National Election Pool Exit Polls, November 2nd, 2004 (CBS Version) http://www.cbsnews.com/htdocs/pdf/methods.pdf
Okay, so which was it -- did the only national exit poll in America on November 2nd, 2004 query 12,219 voters? 13,047 voters? 12,403 voters?
How about 13,660 voters? Yes, indeed, the story gets even better.
According to CBS's actual election web-site -- not its exit poll documentation -- 13,660 voters were questioned by the N.E.P on Election Day. Find the proof here:
CBS Election 2004 Web-Site http://election.cbsnews.com/election2004/p...__all_us0.shtml
So how is it, in a business -- exit-polling -- in which numbers are everything, Mitofsky, CBS, and the Washington Post can't agree on the sample size for the nation's only general election exit poll?
Was it:
a ) 12,219
b ) 13,047
c ) 12,403
d ) 13,600
And when the N.E.P. releases its exit poll data in late January, which poll will they release?
And is there any correlation between the fact that Democratic presidential candidate John F. Kerry won Mitofsky's original exit poll, and the fact that now -- months later -- no one seems to agree on a pivotal, in fact a central issue in the conduct of the poll itself: the sample size?
Is the N.E.P. manipulating its sample size data to pave the way for an inaccurate rendering of its Election Day findings when the Poll is released in late January?
Well, don't let them do it.
When the Poll is released, demand that the N.E.P. explain the discrepancies in its sample size data.
[The Advocate wishes to thank Advocate reader Luke Ryland for contributing to this article].