Posted on Sun, Mar. 20, 2005

GUATEMALA


Emerging from the darkness

BY DANIEL P. ERIKSON AND MICHELLE LAPOINTE

derikson@thedialogue.org


Guatemala's cycle of violence once again erupted last week, when skirmishes between anti-globalization protesters and the national police resulted in a score of injuries and two deaths. The catalyst for this confrontation was the Guatemalan government's decision to ratify the Central American Free Trade Agreement, a sweeping trade accord with the United States that promises to lower tariffs and boost investment in this poverty-stricken country.

The measure passed by an overwhelming majority in the Guatemalan congress, and is strongly supported by President Oscar Berger. Indeed, CAFTA will provide an important boost to the Guatemalan economy. Yet the recent deadly clashes demonstrate that it is time for the United States to complement its free-trade agenda with new measures to help the Guatemalan government maintain the country's fragile social peace.

In his inaugural address, President Bush defined America's calling as the ''expansion of freedom in all the world.'' But the reality is that the United States has far too often neglected the hard work of democratic consolidation that follows the end of civil conflict and dictatorship. Without greater U.S. attention, Guatemala risks becoming one such case. This poor Central American country has made substantial progress since the 1996 peace accords ended a brutal 36-year civil war that claimed more than 200,000 lives. Its president, Oscar Berger, has enjoyed warm relations with the United States during his first year in office, and the United Nations recently ended its eight-year mission there. But specters of political fragmentation, social exclusion and criminal violence still lurk behind the country's seemingly stable fac¸ade.

Berger initially brought high expectations for accountability and reform when he entered office in 2004. Calling for national unity, he outlined ambitious plans to increase tax collection, downsize the armed forces and tackle widespread social ills such as illiteracy and disease. But Berger has struggled to confront a number of entrenched interests, including a business community reluctant to pay taxes and ex-paramilitary groups demanding compensation for their actions during the civil war. In addition, the government is battling deeply-rooted social problems, particularly in the area of rural land conflicts.

Guatemala's estimated 5 million indigenous people suffered the worst atrocities during the civil war and continue to be largely excluded from the political and economic centers of power:

• Half of the population suffers from chronic malnutrition.

• One fifth lives in extreme poverty.

• Less than one third of school-age children graduate from sixth grade and only five percent make it to high school.

• With 23 major language groups, Guatemala is a social cauldron more akin to the highly unstable countries in the Andean region than any other Central American country.

While Berger has made significant, if symbolic, efforts toward inclusion of the Mayan population -- such as inviting Nobel Peace Prize winner Rigoberta Menchú to serve as a ''goodwill ambassador'' for the peace accords -- his tenure has also witnessed a resurgence in deadly clashes between peasant groups and landowners. These tensions threaten to explode in the coming years.

Even more worrying is the wave of violent crime that has washed over Guatemala during the past year. Before Berger took office, Guatemala City was already among the deadliest capitals in Latin America, with a per capita murder rate that is nearly five times higher than Bogotá. Last year, incidences of assault, kidnapping and homicide more than doubled, with at least 2,000 murders and an alarming rise in violence against women.

The country's independent ombudsman for human rights estimates that there are two million unregistered guns in Guatemala, part of the thriving underground arms traffic. Guatemala's National Civilian Police force has been ineffectual in dealing with the surge in violence, leading Berger to call on the military to provide support. But few wish to see the Guatemalan military play a more active role in the country's internal affairs. Meanwhile, Central American gangs, known as maras, have fueled the increase in violence that has cut deeply into Berger's popular support.

Yet the Bush administration has done little help this neighbor grapple with its crisis of insecurity, and U.S. development aid to Guatemala has been slashed by one third, from nearly $60 million in 2002 to $38 million in 2005.

The United States must not let Guatemala's undeniable progress blind it to the country's chronic and festering problems. In addition to ratifying CAFTA, the United States must do more to support the Berger government, strengthen implementation of the peace accords and address the plight of Guatemala's poor. With 12 million people, Guatemala is the most populous country in Central America and the largest economy in the region. Its success is crucial to hemispheric security, and a renewed investment by the Bush administration will reap long term benefits for U.S. efforts to promote democracy and stability in our neighborhood.

Daniel P. Erikson is director of Caribbean programs at the Inter-American Dialogue in Washington, D.C. Michelle Lapointe is program assistant for Central America.

http://www.miami.com/mld/miamiherald/news/...on/11172265.htm