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theglobalchinese
UN investigation team back in Lebanon Khaleej Times
The UN team investigating the February murder of five-time Lebanese prime minister Rafik Hariri was back in Beirut on Tuesday one day after the UN Security Council unanimously demanded better cooperation from neighbouring Syria with the investigation. UN chief investigator Detlev Mehlis was back at work in Beirut after flying into the city on Monday evening as the resolution was being passed in New York, Lebanese security sources said on condition of anonymity. “His arrival took place under heavy security measures and secrecy,” the sources said. The UN resolution said Syria had provided only a “limited degree” of cooperation or tried to mislead or provide “false and inaccurate” information to a UN investigative panel led by German prosecutor Mehlis. “At this important time, the UN is holding Syria accountable for any further failure to cooperate with the commission,” US Secretary of State Condoleezza Rice said. She warned of “close links” between Syrian cooperation and further UN action. The resolution ordered governments to impose travel bans and freeze the assets of any Lebanese and Syrian officials or other people to be declared suspects in the killing. Mehlis and the Lebanese government are expected to provide the names of suspects to a UN panel which can order the sanctions. The resolution was adopted under the UN Charter’s Chapter 7, which allows the use of force, even though the text was watered down in order to gain the unanimous support of council members. Before the vote, earlier references to an economic embargo against Syria and a demand for Damascus to renounce terrorism were dropped from the text. Lebanese Prime Minister Fouad Seniora welcomed the new resolution, saying, “I hope our Syrian brothers will now match words with deeds and cooperate fully with the international inquiry.” He expressed “satisfaction” with the resolution even though it had been watered down from earlier drafts circulated by Britain, France and the United States, saying it would help the inquiry. He also raised the possibility that the commission’s mandate might be extended beyond its current December 15 expiry date “if the Lebanese government requests it”.
Syria seeks summit to build support Detroit Free Press
Russia urges Syria to cooperate on Hariri's murder Xinhua
International Herald Tribune - ABC News - New York Times - Brisbane Courier Mail - all 1,374 related »
theglobalchinese
Palestinians: Israeli missile kills 2 CNN International
An Israeli missile hit a car Tuesday in the Jabalya refugee camp in northern Gaza, killing two Palestinians, Palestinian security sources said.
Israeli air strike kills 2 top Gaza militants Reuters.uk
PA wants end to West Bank carve-up Aljazeera.net
Forbes - Reuters AlertNet - Scotsman - Bloomberg - all 807 related »
Snuffysmith
http://www.voanews.com/english/2-Top-Pales...ike-in-Gaza.cfm

2 Top Palestinian Militants Killed in Israeli Airstrike in Gaza
By VOA News
01 November 2005

Wreckage of car in which Hassan Madhoun and Fawzi Abu Kara were travelling in Gaza
Two top Palestinian militant leaders have been killed in an Israeli airstrike in the northern Gaza Strip.

Authorities say Hassan Madhoun, a senior member of the al-Aqsa Martyrs Brigades, and top Hamas militant Fawzi Abu Kara were killed Tuesday, when an Israeli missile hit their car near the Jabalya refugee camp. The Palestinian Authority says at least nine bystanders were wounded.

A short while after the attack, spokesmen for Hamas and al-Aqsa Martyrs Brigades vowed to retaliate.

Israel says the al-Aqsa militant was wanted in connection with a 2004 bombing that killed 10 people in the Israeli port of Ashdod.

Israel has carried out numerous strikes in Gaza since a Palestinian suicide bomber killed five Israelis in central Israel October 26.

Some information for this report provided by AFP, AP and Reuters.
Snuffysmith
Talabani rejects any strike on Syria from Iraq :

Iraqi President Jalal Talabani said in remarks published on Tuesday he would oppose the use of Iraqi territory as a launchpad for any U.S. military strike on Syria.
http://tinyurl.com/7oon3
Snuffysmith
Arab League denies getting Syrian request for emergency summit :

The spokesman for the 22-member Arab League, Hisham Yusuf, on Tuesday denied getting an official request from Syria to hold an emergency Arab League summit to elicit the combined support for Syria in the face of the United Nations Security Council's resolution 1636, adopted Monday.
http://www.albawaba.com/en/news/190959
Snuffysmith
Another Trojan Horse from the UN?:

It's happening all over again. This time Syria has received the kiss of the White House don just as laid-out in the 1996 neo-con rule book "Clean Break", conceived on the bidding of none other than the Israel far-right's chief thug Benjamin Netanyahu.
http://www.counterpunch.com/heard11012005.html
Snuffysmith
U.S. Discusses Invasion Of Saudi Arabia

The response could include the deployment of three U.S. Army divisions backed by fighter-jets and airborne early-warning and alert aircraft. In all, the U.S.-led mission could include up to 300,000 troops.
http://menewsline.com/stories/2005/november/11_02_1.html
Snuffysmith
Two militants killed in Gaza raid, Israelis move into Jenin
http://www.spacewar.com/2005/051101205229.ezrh52mn.html

Gaza City (AFP) Nov 01, 2005 - Two Palestinian militant leaders in the Gaza Strip were killed in an Israeli air strike Tuesday and Israeli tanks rolled into the West Bank city of Jenin in a deadly offensive against armed groups.
Snuffysmith
Annan turns to veteran peace broker for tough Kosovo talks
http://www.spacewar.com/2005/051101184737.z3n2ugvy.html
Snuffysmith
More than 500 ex-Zairean soldiers repatriated
http://www.spacewar.com/2005/051101175032.mf5lbb0i.html
Snuffysmith
http://www.atimes.com/atimes/Middle_East/GK01Ak01.html


COMMENTARY
Hoodwinked in Washington and Damascus
By Maggie Mitchell Salem

The wail-and-moan communications strategy of Syrian President Bashar Assad exploits the gray area in the Detlev Mehlis report into the assassination of the former Lebanese prime minister, Rafik Hariri - the absence of a "smoking gun" and the presence of an unedited version (which fingered Assad's brother and brother-in-law) - to prove that an insidious political (aka American) campaign is under way to undermine the Syrian regime.

If after scrutinizing all 87 pages of the report you still believe Syria played no role in Hariri's assassination, well then, perhaps you shouldn't read any further.

Clearly, you've been conned. Or is it that you dislike and distrust President George W Bush's cabal more than you do Bashar's?



Now that, I must confess, is a tough call.

But one thing I do know: Bush did not orchestrate the murder of Hariri.

Mehlis is asking questions in Damascus instead of Washington not because he is a puppet of the Bush administration, but because a trail of evidence points in that direction. It's really that simple.

Even in a reasonably imperfect world, though justice takes a long time in coming, it often does arrive. Yes, even in Washington.

On Friday, special prosecutor Patrick Fitzgerald charged I Lewis "Scooter" Libby, Vice President Dick Cheney's chief of staff, with five felony counts of perjury, obstructing justice and making false statements. The investigation into Bush's own right-hand-man, Karl Rove, is ongoing, though no indictments were handed down last week.

In the end, neither man is likely to be charged with the crime that Fitzgerald set out to uncover: did someone knowingly leak the name of a Central Intelligence Agency operative? The agent in question, Valerie Plame, is the wife of the Bush administration's pre-Iraq war nemesis, former US ambassador and outspoken critic, Joe Wilson.

In the US, undermining critics isn't a felony; deliberately outing a covert operative certainly is.

Just days before the indictments were handed down, Libby admitted that Cheney – not reporters, as he had indicated under oath – had told him about Plame. The Sunday morning Washington talk shows included a good deal of speculation about whether Cheney knew of Libby's vendetta to undermine Wilson.

The same sort of speculation exists vis-a-vis Assad. Was he fully aware of his brother and brother-in-law's operations? As he told CNN's Christiane Amanpour shortly before Mehlis delivered his report, "You cannot be a dictator and not be in control."

As for the White House shenanigans, Libby's scheme was quite straightforward. Gossip with reporters and hint that Wilson only got to go (unpaid) to Niger and uncover a fraud because of his wife's influence.

Not one of the vice president's men bothered to stop and consider that if Plame could gin up a mission for her husband, she might have a bit of "wasta" herself. Or did the CIA boss, George Tenet, neglect to mention her covert status when he briefed Cheney?

Ah, but why delay over niggling details. There's a war to be justified. Critics to be muted. Weapons of mass destruction to be found. Democracy to be instilled. Terrorism to be fomented.

I mean fought.

Now, much like the Damascus cabal, the one in Washington spins a serious crime into an annoying technicality. According to loyal Bush supporter and veteran Senator Kay Bailey Hutchinson, "An indictment of any kind is not a guilty verdict, and I do think we have in this country the right to go to court and have due process and be innocent until proven guilty."

Certainly, Bashar will use just that strategy when he appeals to UN Security Council members, particularly China and Russia, to forgo sanctions until Mehlis concludes his final report. The beauty of such a maneuver is that it's likely to work.

Narrowly averting the abyss, Damascus offers minimal (if any) additional information, evidence and witnesses. Then, on December 15, when Mehlis' term expires, Syria's figleaf of innocence is preserved. The US, France and Britain may fume, but that alone will not win international sanctions.

For Bashar, such an outcome guarantees that his kin rule another day.

Crime, what crime?
On Sunday's Meet the Press, William Safire, darling of the neo-conservatives, offered a magic lesson for those looking to banish a legal quagmire. "This whole thing started as an investigation of the violation of a law. And the law that was violated was you must not deliberately out an agent who is undercover. And what the special counsel found is that law was not broken."

Both Bush's supporters and Bashar's posse seem intent on kicking up enough dust to distract their critics.

Strategists note that Bush is likely to engage in more photo ops on issues ranging from relief efforts relating to hurricanes Katrina and Wilma to the mortally wounded Middle East peace process. On substance, he'll have a new Supreme Court nominee to steal a few headlines and rally his conservative political base.

In Bashar's case, he has set about naming an "independent prosecutor" (it's hard to type the words without laughing aloud) in the off chance enough evidence sticks and he then demands to try the posse - I mean perpetrators - at home for what he has conveniently described as an act of treason. Never mind the fact that Hariri wasn't Syrian.

From the sublime to the ridiculous, there's word that Syria's Kurds may be granted citizenship - after 43 years. Finally, in a move a la Hosni Mubarak in Egypt, Ba'ath leaders hint at possible multiple-party elections in the future.

Of course, both leaders could have averted this chapter in their political careers. As Pulitzer Prize-winning historian Barbara Tuchman said in the opening of The March of Folly: From Troy to Vietnam: "A phenomenon noticeable throughout history regardless of place or period is the pursuit by governments of policies contrary to their own interests."

Or, as the close confidante of Bush Sr, Brent Scowcroft, put it, "We continually step on our best aspirations. We're humans. Given a chance to screw up, we will."

Bush is no more immune to outright, unexpected failure than Assad.

Despite all the technological advances, the satellites and computer gadgetry, the wiretaps and intercepts, no American leader is omniscient. Mistakes are made. Case in point: the war in Iraq.

Do you really believe that with more than 2,000 American fatalities, tens of thousands of injured soldiers and well over 30,000 Iraqi civilian casualties with no end in sight, that this debacle was the anticipated outcome?

Has Bush tipped the scales toward Israel? Absolutely. But Bush's misdeeds should never mitigate Assad's. There is room for two bad actors, three if you count Israeli Prime Minister Ariel Sharon; four, if you include the unrehabilitated Muammar Gaddafi. The list could go on and on.

Let each one suffer the consequences of his actions. Let no one escape judgment.

In the end, no one will.

Maggie Mitchell Salem is a former special assistant to US secretary of state Madeleine K Albright; a former career foreign service officer; former director of communications and outreach at the Middle East Institute in Washington, DC; she now provides Middle East analysis to private and public sector clients in the US and the region, including a number of dailies in Arabic and English.

(Copyright 2005 Maggie Mitchell Salem)
Snuffysmith
http://www.globalresearch.ca/index.php?con...&articleId=1175

The Security Council Resolution on Syria is a pretext for the bombing and occupation of Syria
The Resolution is in Violation of the UN Charter


by Niloufer Bhagwat

November 2, 2005
GlobalResearch.ca

Rafik Harari died in a manner which anyone who has humanity would not want any individual to die, and it is conceded he was a former Prime Minister. Does that justify an investigation by the Secretary General of the United Nations and a Resolution by the Security Council, when the pogroms committed by the Phalangists and Israel army in conspiracy with General Aron Sharon have never been investigated, even though it took place during an international conflict and the occupation of Lebanon . Are the lives of the Palestinian refugees who who were brualy killed, raped, mutilated any less important than that of Rafik Hariri and which provision of the UN Charter says so?

The world has witnessed the killings by bomb blasts of Indian citizens from 1993 including in Kashmir, Delhi , Mumbai in scores of places with a death toll of thousands of citizens killed and maimed by covert agencies in India . The bombings mysteriously conincided invariably with some sharpening crisis of some nature or the other or of impending pogroms against minorities or other sections. Yet UN probe was ever ordered and there is no resolution of the Security Council on bomb blasts in India , the Philippines or Indonesia.

Recently no less a person than a former Minister of Indonesia has claimed that the Indonesian military had covert links with those perpetrating the blasts at Bali. Earlier Junior military officers in the Philippines had made similar allegations against some of the highest in the political leadership of their country .

The United Nations Charter explicitly and implicitly prohibits interference in the internal affairs and criminal investigations in any country, the only exception possible would be War Crimes and Crimes against Humanity as defined by the Nuremberg principles perpetrated by any government, including the permanent members of the Security Council . Apart from this exception the sovereignty of every nation, society or people is guaranteed by the UN Charter and no country in the conduct of its criminal investigation can be influenced or pressurised by the permanent or elected members of the Security Council without this constituting an undue interference in the internal affairs of a sovereign nation.

To illustrate the diabolical nature of the double standards the series of covert political assassinations carried out by some of the permanent and other governments in the Secuirity Council have been open knowledge the world over . The assassination of President Allende in Chile is one example ,where the UN and all the members of the Security Council continued to deal with the murderous Pinochet regime. The same General Pinochet is now indicted for receiving funds and other largesse from American Banks and other financial insitutions claiming age in defence . The role of Henry Kissinger in that assassination was carefully documented by impeccable American sources, and yet neither has Henry Kissinger been indicted nor anyone associated with the conspiracy to murder the innocent and instal in Chile a government favourable to US - UK Corporations and finance capital

In India two Prime Ministers were brually assassinated . Indira Gandhi in 1984 while in office and Rajiv Gandhi in 1991, while leader of the opposition was killed by a suicide bomber mid way through an election , an act of covert agencies and terrorist organizations acting in a covert conspiracy . The Inquiry Commission inquiring into the assassination has held that it is necessary to further investigate the conspiracy and conspirators behind the suicide bomber as these have not been unmasked.

Prior to the assassination of Prime Minister Indira Gandhi a leading member of a terrorist organization sheltered in the UK announced on BBC that Mrs.Indira Gandhi should be killed . Neither the Secretary General of the United Nations nor the Security Council directed an investigation into the International conspiracy to assassinate Mrs Indira Gandhi despite prima facie evidence on record that the funds and training were being received by these covert organizations from the UK and across the Atlantic.

Similarly it cannot be forgotten that an urgent message was sent to the late Rajiv Gandhi by the late Yasser Arafat that there was a covert plot to assassinate him, which came to pass. The fact that Yasser Arafat communicated the existence of this covert conspiracy would reveal that Mossad could not be very far from this plot, as a former Mossad agent has admitted in a controversial book that more than one side to the fratricide in Sri Lanka were trained by Mossad in Israel including sections of the LTTE .

We have the example of the Kanishka aircraft which was bombed with hundreds of Indian and other passengers on board killed with the failure of Canadian Intelligence to conduct a public inquiry or to indict covert organizations being funded and operated from Canada, with a highly compromised trial satisfying none of the surviving relatives as comprehensive and thorough; yet the Security Council of the United Nations despite the hundreds of lives lost did not indict the government of Canada and put it on notice that those responsible must be proceeded against in the alternative Canada could be subjected to sanctions .

Can one Rafiq Harari whose assassination however brutal be given greater primacy over the murder of hundreds and thousands of citizens in covert International and national incidents which the UN Security Council has never cared to investigate even though when they have taken place across international boundaries as in the Kanishka crash, during wars of occupation as in the case of Sabra and Chatilla , in Kashmir and those killed in coups and counter coups by external forces in Latin America and other places . No inquiry has taken place as to how Ahmed Shah Massood of the Nothern Alliance was murdered in Afghanistan two days before 9/11.

An innocent Brazilian was recently murdered by the police in England and there has been no Resolution on the UK by the Security Council and no international investigation by a prosecutor into the suspicious London bomb blasts and no possibility of sanctions against the UK, India, Indonesia, Philippines or other countries where scoresof innocent citizens are being killed by bomb blasts.

The 9/11 tragedy remains a mystery with no UN investigation and no Security Council Resolution though thousands died in one incident alone and we are now informed of "Able Danger " and the implications of the controlled demolitions of the towers by explosives and not by aircraft .

For the last few years since 1993 in tandem with the neoliberal globalization program imposing a creeping economic death sentence on several classes of Indian society including weavers, peasants, workers, petty traders, bomb blasts have been occurring in different cities of the Indian Union on ordinarly citizens with covert agencies operating, leaving thousands killed and maimed including Kashmiris in the State of Jammu and Kashmir including sections of the middle classes and working people in Mumbai , New Delhi , Tamil Nad, Hyderabad, Ahmedabad, among other cities . Despite the fact that this discloses a complete and abject failure of more than one national party in power at the Centre and in the States where the bomb blasts have taken place the Security Council has not appointed an international inquiry to protect the lives of the Indian people against these covert attacks from allegedly terrorist organizations operating from inside India or from outside India and not a single government has resigned acknowledging responsibility in not being able to secure the right to life of the citizen of India a basic function of government .

The propoganda systems national and International have broked down , no one believes the Goebelsian news reports , the Security Council and IAEA are seen to be aiding and abetting invasions and occupations . Even war can no longer camouflage the civlizational collapse when it is necessary to kill innocent men, women and children for systems to survive .

On the murder of Rafiq Hariri the central question asked in any crime is a simple one :" Who benefits ?"

The answer is that the murder of Rafiq Hariri benefits those corporations controlling governments who desire to militarily invade yet another country of the region vital for control of hydrocarbon resources and pipelines and for that purpose secured withdrawal of Syrian troops from Lebanon a country which was articially severed from Syria by the elite classes of the big powers, in what has been the " Great Game " of redrawing artificially the maps of countries and societies in the age of Imperialism and now in its new camouflage neoliberal globalization in the tradition of Cecil Rhodes who recommended colonization as a policy to prevent revolution at home in societies increasingly polarized .

For governments like Syria who attempted for decades to comply with various and diverse requests of the Imperial powers, there is a lesson, which is no one is spared not even yesterday's ally.

Despite tight rope walking every single leader, the government and its members are dispensable in a brutal game which recognizes no one and makes not a single concession to humanity. Many leaders erstwhile friends and allies of the US-UK corporations will follow Saddam Hussain either to trial or to the grave including those who collaborated in Bosnia, Kosovo, Afghanistan, former Yugoslavia, Iran, Pakistan, India and anywhere else ...

All the perfumes of Arabia cannot cleanse this blood of innocent humanity .


--------------------------------------------------------------------------------

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The url address of this article is: www.globalresearch.ca/index.php?context=viewArticle&code=BHA20051102&articleId=1175
theglobalchinese
Hamas: No Renewal of Truce With Israel Guardian Unlimited
Hamas said Wednesday the Islamic militant group would not renew an informal 9-month-old truce, which expires at the end of the year, after Israel killed one of its leading activists in an airstrike in Gaza.
Hamas will end truce with Israel BBC News
Israel Kills 2 Palestinian Radical Leaders in Airstrike Washington Post
Reuters.uk - Reuters AlertNet - Taipei Times - Australian - all 877 related »
Snuffysmith
MIDEAST: UN Flounders Amid Growing Troubles
Analysis by Ferry Biedermann
BEIRUT - The Lebanese Hezbollah movement used an annual anti-Israel rally to send a defiant message to the international community. It was some indication how difficult it is for the United Nations to deal with the crises in the Middle East.
http://www.ipsnews.net/news.asp?idnews=30814
Snuffysmith
Politics & Policies: A Changing Mideast
http://www.spacewar.com/news/syria-05g.html

Washington (UPI) Nov 02, 2005 - The Bush administration is putting unprecedented pressure on Syria to introduce political and social change at the same time growing opposition in Syria is doing the same.
Snuffysmith
http://www.aljazeerah.info/Opinion%20edito...dra%20Singh.htm

Western pressure on Syria strengthens Russian influence in the Region

By K Gajendra Singh
Al-Jazeerah, November 2, 2005

"In our system, each individual is presumed innocent and entitled to a fair trial,” said George W. Bush when asked about 5 count indictment of Lewis "Scooter" Libby, US Vice- President’s top aide.

On 31 October, Russia with Chinese support, thwarted attempts by Anglo-Saxons, joined by France , former colonial master of Syria and Lebanon , to place Damascus under UN sanctions on the basis of an inconclusive and suspect report on the murder of Rafik Hariri ,ex-Prime Minister of Lebanon . The Security Council resolution only demands that Syria cooperate with an international inquiry into Hariri killing.

The 15-0 unanimous vote came after last-minute negotiations in which the resolution's sponsors - the US, France and Britain – had to delete a threat of sanctions against Syria from their draft and replace it with a warning of possible "further action" if Damascus failed to comply. Russia and China had made it clear that economic sanctions would invite a veto.

US led Western leadership and corporate and government media hounds have already tried and pronounced the top Damascus leadership almost guilty, based on the testimony of a known embezzler , according to 22 October Hamburg ‘s news magazine “ Der Spiegel” , by UN appointed investigator Detlev Mehlis whose impartiality and integrity are also suspect.



During his January visit to Moscow Syrian President Bashar Assad had signed an agreement to purchase surface-to-air missiles despite protests from Israel and USA`. He said that "these are weapons for air defense, meant to prevent aircraft from intruding in our airspace. ”To mark the historic Syrian visit, Russia announced that it would write off 73% of US$ 13.4 billion in debt owed by Syria from the days of the USSR. Russian President Vladimir Putin said this created "opportunities for long-term cooperation".

Assad invited Russia to the region because "Russia has an enormous role, and has a lot of respect from Third World countries ... which really hope that Russia will try to revive the positions it used to hold". He added that US foreign policy on Iraq was "disastrous". Ever since the United States invaded Iraq in March 2003, Syria has been threatened both by Israel and the US.
In end September the Syrian army’s chief-of-staff General Ali Habib during his four-day visit to Russia held discussions to further upgrade his country’s weapons and further strengthen defense cooperation between Moscow and Damascus. He discussed with Russian Defense Minister Sergei Ivanov ways for “maintenance and modernization of Syrian military equipment by Russian experts, the training of Syrian military officers in Russian military academies from 30 to 60 and future purchases of Russian weapons,” a Russian defense ministry statement said. General Ali Habib also visited a weapons factory specializing in high-precision anti-tank rockets in Tula region south of Moscow which produces small arms, “active armored” systems and Kornet-E anti-tank missiles.
Russia and China are equally determined to oppose any sanctions against Iran in its legitimate pursuit of the nuclear fuel cycle for power generation as permitted under the Nuclear Non- Proliferation Treaty .This was discussed at the SCO meeting in Moscow on 26 October , of Iran along with India and Pakistan are observers .Russia and China along with other SCO members have stopped USA in its tracks in its efforts to install puppet regimes in Kyrgyzstan and Uzbekistan through its street organized “Franchised revolutions ‘ with open supports and funds from US institutions. In September , Russia and China organized the first ever wide ranging and complex military exercises along the Chinese coast to send home the message to the West.


Russian media reported that Bashar al-Asad telephoned President Putin on 25 October and expressed readiness for ‘’ the broadest cooperation" with the UN commission . Putin urged cooperation and said Moscow supported "cautious actions on the part of the international community on this issue in order to avoid new sources of tension in the region," On the same day, Foreign Minister Sergei Lavrov spoke with his Chinese counterpart Li Zhaoxing about the situation in Lebanon and Syria in the context of the UN investigation. RTR reported that both Russia and China indicated they would veto UN sanctions on Syria .



USA’s double standards.



The presumption of innocence which Bush cited for Liibby does not apply to hundreds of detainees , some even American citizens in Guantanamo prison , described by the Amnesty International as present day Gulag , which even felt impelled to ask foreign governments to investigate and take action if necessary against US Defence Secretary Donald Rumsfeld and other senior officials ,citing the arrest warrants and possible trial of Chilean dictator Pinochet .



Cheney has replaced Libby with David Addington and John Hannah. Addington is the author of legal memos justifying torture of prisoners held by the US abroad, in direct contradiction of US treaty obligations under international law. Hannah spread disinformation produced by Ahmad Chalabi and the Iraqi National Congress about Iraq's supposed weapons of mass destruction. It is clear that Karl Rove , Bush’s top aide told Matt Cooper of Time Magazine about Valerie Plame Wilson ,whose CIA cover was blown ; it is an offence



It is a moot point whether a beleaguered Bush administration, perhaps mortally injured by the indicting of Libby and further hearings , would try to divert attention abroad by more propaganda crusades against Syrian and Iranian Presidents and even some foolhardy adventure . This administration has little credibility left at home and abroad and its actions are doing incalculable harm to the standing and prestige of upright US citizens and courageous whistle blowers like Ambassador Wilson , whose report triggered the actions which have culminated in the first ever such an indictment in the history of the White House.



It appears that for all practical purposes George Bush is now a dead lame-duck Presidents and perhaps deservedly so. A former Neo-Con wrote to this author, that Bush Junior was chosen by the Neocons who have brought USA to such a sorry pass , because he was a blank slate to write on their megalomaniac plans.



The statement by the new inexperienced President Mahmoud Ahmadinejad of Iran was taken up by US leadership and the West to mount a media crusade to browbeat Iran as they have failed to cow it down otherwise.



It is the Iranians who during a millennia of rule by foreigners like Arabs, Turks, Mongols and others , mostly Sunnis , gave legal and religious sanction to lie under duress called takkiya, ie, not bringing to the lips what is on the mind. But it is the West which is now employing takkiya. U.S.-led Anglo Saxon illegal invasion of Iraq was called “ Operation Iraqi Freedom “, when it is clear to everyone that it was nothing but a blatant 21st-century attempt to take over Iraq's petroleum resources and control the petro-region from Baghdad. In the process it cooked up causes belli like the weapons of mass destruction in Iraq, Iraq's relationship with Al Qaeda , its program for nuclear weaponisation .For the last excuse to invade Iraq , Bush relied on cooked up intelligence reports that Iraq was trying to get Uranium or from Niger. And when former US Ambassador Wilson, who went to ascertain if it were true and felt that it was wrong and exposed the Bush Administration lies, he and his wife were harassed to intimidate other whistle blowers .



But do not underestimate this double takkiya by Ahmadinejad. The centres of Sunni Islam in the region are Egypt, Saudi Arabia and Iraq , with Sunni majority Syria ruled by Shia Alawaite minority . Iraq has been almost destroyed and taken over by the Shia Iraqis, remote controlled as yet from Tehran . Egypt , where its pro US ruler Hosny Mubarak in power since 1981 has been recently re-elected in a sham election for another term , promotes US policies and has little popularity among Muslims . Saudi Arabia like other Sunni states is on tenterhooks in case of breakup of Iraq and has expressed its concerns publicly.



In the Arab and Muslim world support to the Palestinian cause has been the touchstone and the barometer of the Muslim Ummah’s cause. For long its main and defiant supporter was Saddam Hussein, who continued to send money to the families of martyrs in the occupied Palestine. Not only in the eyes of the Arabs and Muslims, Israel, fully supported by USA and partially by West European countries , now remains the main focus of Muslim Jihad in an millennium old warfare. By threatening to wipe out Israel from the map, the Iranian President is trying to take over the leadership of the Arab and Muslim Street, which was earlier with Saddam Hussein. Some world leaders have condemned remarks by President Ahmadinejad, who has only repeated the words of the late Ayatollah Ruho-Allah Khomeini, leader of the Islamic revolution, by saying: "Israel must be wiped off the map."



It is a moot point if a beleaguered George Bush administration, perhaps mortally injured politically after a grand jury indiction of Libby, to divert attention abroad ,would focus even more on Syrian and Iranian Presidents by exploiting its media control , 90% owned by 5 conglomerates . This administration has little credibility left at home and abroad. An original neo-con wrote to the author, that Bush was chosen by the new cons because he was a blank slate on which they wrote their megalomaniac plans .



In reaction to Western denunciations , Ahmadinejad defiantly marched in the streets of Tehran alongside tens of thousands of people supporting his call for the destruction of Israel .The rally was one of several anti-Israel demonstrations across the country that drew more than a million Iranians. He accused the West "They think they are the absolute rulers of the world," he added.

UN Report’s Star witness al-Sadik a convicted embezzler - Der Spiegel



According to Hamburg’s “ Der Spiegel” of 22 October ,the alleged intelligence agent al-Sadik, 42, on whose testimony a considerable portion of Mehlis investigation is based, has been convicted of , embezzlement and fraud, among other crimes. Even within the UN Commission investigating the Hariri murder ,there is doubt on the credibility of the Syrian witness. According to a statement by his brother, Sadik had called him from Paris in late summer and said “I’ve become a millionaire!” ( for giving false testimony !) Mehlis was contacted through the Syrian dissident Rifaat al-Assad,, an uncle of President Bashir al-Assad, who opposes his nephew in Damascus.

Hariri murder UN investigator Detlev Mehlis has doubtful integrity
Executive Director of the London based Institute for Policy Research & Development and Sussex University Prof NM Ahmed has cast doubts on the integrity of "Detlev Mehlis’ , who as Berlin public prosecutor, “ inadvertently but consistently covered up the dubious involvement of US, Israeli and German intelligence interests in the 1986 terrorist attack; actively built a selective politically-motivated case against suspects without objective material proof; while ignoring and protecting a group of suspects with documented connections to western secret services.” This fundamentally tarnishes the credibility of his investigation .
Mehlis prosecuted numerous terrorism and organized crime cases including the 1982 bombing of the La Belle Discotheque in West Berlin , promptly blamed by the Reagan administration on Libya to justify the US bombing of Tripoli and Benghazi, killing at least 30 Libyan civilians including children.

US National Security Agency intercepted coded exchanges between Tripoli and the East Berlin Libyan Peoples Bureau saying “We have something that will make you happy”, and another after the bombing: “An event occurred. You will be pleased with the result.” But in his sworn testimony for the Lockerbie trial, former Israeli intelligence colonel Victor Ostrovsky admitted that Israeli Mossad’s commandos had set up the transmitter in Tripoli to send false telex signals about the “success” of the Berlin bomb. ( In 1990, US had produced for the Saudi rulers ,concocted aerial photographs of Iraqi forces in an attack mode against the Kingdom to persuade them to accept US forces. These are standard Anglo-Saxon and Mossad tricks )

An investigation by German public television’s Zweites Deutsches Fernsehen (ZDF) broadcast on 25th August 1998 reported that several leading suspects in the Berlin disco bombing were being protected from prosecution by western intelligence services. According to Russian and East German intelligence services, the group worked for western intelligence. Full details on Detlev Mehlis capers are given in Mediainternational.net website of 30 October ,2005.

There is thus doubt that Mehlis’s investigations might conceal the role of US and Israeli intelligence interests in relation to the Hariri assassination.

The Report;



The international investigation was never mandated to make clear cut accusations. As Mehlis clearly states in the final paragraph of the 54 page-long report -- a summary of over 16,000 pages of documents the team collected during the course of its work -- only further investigations and a fair trial can prove the guilt or innocence of any given party. Mehlis also stated that the "investigation is not complete," and the UN secretary general, Kofi Annan, subsequently extended the inquiry until Dec. 15. But the prosecutor had enough confidence in the information he had garnered to add that there is "converging evidence pointing at both Lebanese and Syrian involvement in this terrorist act." The investigators further underlined that the Hariri assassination was prepared over several months, and was "carried out by a group with an extensive organization and considerable resources and capabilities."

Mehlis concluded that Hariri's assassination was so complex that it would be difficult to imagine that the Syrian and Lebanese intelligence services did not know about it. The assassination decision "could not have been taken without the approval of top-ranked Syrian security official and could not have been further organised without the collusion of their counterparts in the Lebanese security services.”. Clearly it is not a report with much judicial rectitude.

Condi goes off the handle again;

Change of unfriendly regimes in the Middle East is one constant theme of US policy .In her testimony before the Senate Foreign Relations Committee on 19th October, Condoleeza Rice confirmed that the administration’s strategy after 9/11 had always been to redesign the Middle East. Iraq was merely the first step in that broader strategy. As for regime change in Damascus , reportedly a US official even asked the Italian Senate President to suggest a replacement for Bashar Assad.

US President George W Bush told the pan-Arab Al-Arabiya TV channel that force would be used against Syria only as "the last -- the very last -- option". As also against Iran! But all options are on the table.

As usual Condi Rice went off the handle after the report "There must be some way to assure accountability," said Ms Rice, adding that the international community would have "no real credibility" if it failed to take punitive action. Her unabashed rhetoric , tone and use of language , compared to Gen Colin Powell’s ,has exposed the hollowness of her so called scholarship.

Why not the international criminal court for investigation [which the US opposes]."Everyone knows the United States' view of the international criminal court," said Ms Rice. "That view is not going to change."

Wrote academic and former Assistant Secretary of the Treasury in the Reagan administration, Paul Craig Roberts .”Grasping a UN report that uses unreliable witnesses to implicate Syria in the assassination of a former Lebanese government official, Condi Rice told the BBC on October 23 that Syria's crime cannot be "left lying on the table. This really has to be dealt with."

”This is amazing for many reasons. Here is the person in charge of US diplomacy acting as if she is the secretary of war unsheathing military force. Whoever heard of an American diplomat wanting to start a war because a former Middle Eastern government official was assassinated?

”The UN investigator, Detlev Mehlis, has no more idea who assassinated the former official than the US knows who is responsible for assassinating the many Iraqi officials under its protection. After more than two and one-half years of war in Iraq, the US still doesn't know exactly who the enemy is that it is fighting. Yet Mehlis blames Syria for an assassination on the strength of an informer described by the German news magazine, Der Spiegal, as a convicted felon and swindler.

On the basis of the word of a convicted felon and swindler, Condi Rice wants a high level UN Security Council meeting to condemn Syria so the Bush administration can bring about "regime change" in Syria.”

The accusations are based on convergences , guess and innuendo.” I think the report is far from professional and will not lead us to the truth," Syria's information minister, Mehdi Dakhlallah, told al-Jazeera television. Syria's ambassador to the US, Imad Moustapha, said the accusations "will only help fuel anti-American sentiment around the world".

Syria –Lebanon linkages and US- Israeli moves;

The Syrian-Lebanese relations are very complex as historically Lebanon was part of greater Syria as was Palestine including Israel and Jordan.

For decades, Lebanon has been the centre for regional and international power play, involving many Arab countries, Israel and the United States. These powers manipulated and even created the countries' political alliances, supplied funds and weapons, helped some players and marginalized others .

If Syria has naturally its own alliances, Israel also maintains proxies, as does USA with its right wing Lebanese Christians, as also France. Iran has its militias, and even Iraq, during the Ba'ath party reign, had its own supporters. The Palestinian Liberation Organization (PLO) was also a significant power broker throughout the 1970s, until the Israeli invasion of Lebanon in 1982, in which tens of thousands of Lebanese and Palestinians were killed. Since then, Palestinians have been confined to their refugee camps in the wake of the expulsion of PLO forces .

With so many competing forces in Lebanon, whether internally or externally, who keep their proxies and meddle in the country's affairs, to criticize Syria alone for Lebanon's misfortunes, past and present, and to solely single out Damascus as the only likely suspect in Hariri's murder on the evidence of a convicted embezzler by the German investigator is just western trickery .” It's ironic that those who have for long contributed to Lebanon's demise are now the main players in leading the fault-finding chorus, demanding justice and the "truth".

What ever may be Syria's record in Lebanon, Damascus was not alone responsible for increasing troubles in Lebanon.” It certainly had more to do with sheltering and benefiting Syria itself, an objective that often led to abuses of power, unwarranted interference in Lebanon's political affairs and ultimately to near complete hegemony over the country's sovereignty.” But Syria was invited to keep peace in Lebanon by US, UN and the Arab states at the time of the Civil war.



While US wants to bring "the perpetrators of Hariri's killing to justice" - as phrased by the State Department – the administration is pressuring Congressional lawmakers to exempt the CIA from a proposed ban on the "cruel, inhuman or degrading treatment or punishment" of anyone held by US authorities, mostly Arabs and Muslims.

It appears that the US foreign-policy approach to Syria is in line with the infamous report prepared for the Israeli government in 1996, by the individuals who manipulated US foreign policy to build a case for war on Iraq, namely Richard Perle, Douglas Feith and David Wurmser, among others. "A Clean Break: A New Strategy for Securing the Realm" counseled that "given the nature of the regime in Damascus, it is both natural and moral that Israel abandon the slogan 'comprehensive peace' and move to contain Syria, drawing attention to its weapons of mass destruction program, and rejecting 'land for peace' deals on the Golan Heights".

It recommended that Israel should establish "the precedent that Syrian territory is not immune to attacks emanating from Lebanon by Israeli proxy forces". It also read: "Israel can shape its strategic environment, in cooperation with Turkey and Jordan, by weakening, containing and even rolling back Syria. This effort can focus on removing Saddam Hussein from power in Iraq - an important Israeli strategic objective in its own right - as a means of foiling Syria's regional ambitions."

While US Senator Barbara Boxer had chided Condi Rice when the latter said that the Asian Sunami was an opportunity ( to improve tattered US image ) the assassination of the Hariri is thus another opportunity to extract more concessions from Damascus, which is standing up to the Israeli expansionism and American crusade.



On Lebanon, UK MP George Galloway, recently warned that a civil war was on the brink in Lebanon. He also called upon the Lebanese opposition not to transform Lebanon into a “knife in Syria’s back”. “During his visit to Lebanon, he felt that the elements of the Lebanese civil war, which ended in 1989, are now back and Lebanon has become a dangerous place now, alluding to Michel Aoun’s return and Samir Ja’ja’s release from jail, both of whom were the primary architects in the 15-year civil war. “ Lebanon was currently witnessing an ‘atmosphere of war’ following the February 14 assassination of Hariri and the subsequent explosions targeting key Lebanese political figures.

Russia-Syria-Israel triangle;

Moscow would “not disrupt the absence of balance!”



Sergey Lavrov two-day working visit to Israel ending on 28 despite friendly atmosphere failed to produce an understanding on any of the key problems in bilateral relations. Israel was disappointed with Russian failure to share its concerns over Syria and Iran. Russia's proposal to hold an international conference on Palestine fell on Israel’s deaf ears. Lavrov and Israeli Foreign Minister Silvan Shalom made only short statements to hide the disagreements between them on key questions. Lavrov expressed opposition to sanctions against Syria regarding the assassination of Hariri. “Syria has to be drawn into the investigation and not accused as a state. At this stage, the imposition of sanctions is excessive,” Lavrov declared.. Shalom did not agree with him.


Russian diplomats assured the Israelis that the promise made by Putin in his April visit that it would not provide Syria with arms that could disrupt the balance of power in the region would be kept. One Russian diplomat accompanying Lavrov joked that Moscow would “not disrupt the absence of balance,” apparently referring to Israel's military superiority over its Arab neighbors. In Israel, they react nervously to such jokes.



Growing concern over Iran's pursuit of a nuclear capability was the chief topic of the ministers' meeting, Shalom revealed that Israel is greatly concerned that Iran is close to producing a nuclear bomb, he said, warning that Israel "must take every necessary step" to prevent what he termed "a nightmare for us and for Russia." Israel reportedly has over 100 nuclear bombs.

Syrian reaction:

Post UN resolution , Syria requested for an emergency Arab League summit to rally regional support in the face of stern UN Security Council action. But as history has shown Anglo-Saxons have exploited Arab disunity throughout history .Instead of a summit of all 22 members, a smaller gathering of Syria, Saudi Arabia, Algeria, Lebanon and Egypt might be organized if others decline afraid of upsetting the United States, France and Britain . Arab league remains an ineffective organization.

With most members being Sunnis , Arab League offices based in Cairo ( like the influence of Saudis on OIC based in the Kingdom) and President Mubarak doing Washington ‘s bidding not much will be done to aid Shia Alawaite Assad. The author who was posted in Amman ( 1989-92 ) knows how efforts by late King Hussein of Jordan and others to find an Arab solution to Saddam’s invasion of Kuwait were undone by Mubarak at US command .He was amply rewarded for this action.

The Syria Times said the resolution as drafted was “openly politicised” and too heavily influenced by the United States.“It’s immoral and totally unacceptable that the will of the (international) community remains captive to a unilateral diktat and ... accepts tyranny and hegemony,” the paper said.

Tishrin, another government newspaper, criticized the proposed UN document as “tough and unbalanced” and urged the Security Council to adopt “a balanced and objective” resolution “that would not be a clear translation of the US administration’s will.”

Al Thawra daily said the United States wants Syria to “be stripped of its skin, abandon its regional and national role and be turned into a marginal state that carries out orders.”

Mass pro-government demonstrations were held in Damascus and Aleppo "Wake up Arabs, your turn will come soon!" said one banner. Wrote a Western commentators “ The officially organised protests were a reminder that despite public dissatisfaction over living standards, 20% unemployment, and falling oil income, the regime still knows how to exploit nationalist sentiment - and faces little conventional political opposition“ Would these pompous experts like to usher in democracy as in Iraq , with over 50% unemployment, rampaging anarchy and insecurity and almost total destruction of the state’s infrastructure and robbing of Iraqi peoples oil money by US overlords and their quislings and supporters

Tens of thousands of Lebanese attended an anti-Israel Hezbollah parade in Beirut’s southern suburb in a show of force by the group facing US-led pressure to disarm in line with a 14-month-old UN resolution.

“We say clearly that we stand by Syria, leadership and people, in the face of its targeting by the Americans and Zionists and attempts to punish it politically for standing by Lebanon and its resistance,” Hezbollah chief Sheikh Hassan Nasrallah told the rally. “What we are witnessing today is the using of the Mehlis report to punish Syria for a crime that it has not been convicted of as a punishment for its political and strategic options,” Nasrallah said.

Malik al-Abdeh, spokesman for the exiled Movement for Justice and Development opposition party, warned "The Sunni Salafist movement with its jihadist offshoots is a growing force within Syria, especially among the rural young," he said. "This movement is not under the influence of traditional Islamist parties like the Muslim Brotherhood. It is a relatively new phenomenon, greatly boosted by the Iraq insurgency... it represents the strongest challenge to the regime on the ground."

Like Ahmed Chalabi in Iraq , Mr Abdeh wants to takeover in Syria as US wants "a more seasoned and pragmatic politician than Bashar" to confront the Islamists. Another expert Rime Allaf, a Syria expert at the think tank Chatham House said ,”I think a number of countries are telling them this is not the time - even the Israelis. It's in their interest to have a weakened Syria, a Syria on its knees, but not a Syria in chaos." What an easy picking Iraq had looked from Washington.

Some opposition in USA

Ron Paul (R-TX) speaking in the US House of Representatives on October 26, said “Prepare for a broader war in the Middle East, as plans are being laid for the next U.S.-led regime change – in Syria. A UN report on the death of Lebanese Prime Minister Rafig Hariri elicited this comment from a senior U.S. policy maker: “Out of tragedy comes an extraordinary strategic opportunity.” This statement reflects the continued neo-conservative, Machiavellian influence on our foreign policy. The “opportunity” refers to the long-held neo-conservative plan for regime change in Syria, similar to what was carried out in Iraq.

“This plan for remaking the Middle East has been around for a long time. Just as 9/11 served the interests of those who longed for changes in Iraq, the sensationalism surrounding Hariri’s death is being used to advance plans to remove Assad.

“Syria was castigated for placing its troops in Lebanon, a neighboring country, although such action was invited by an elected government and encouraged by the United States. The Syrian occupation of Lebanon elicited no suicide terrorist attacks, as was suffered by Western occupiers.

“Condemning Syria for having troops in Lebanon seems strange, considering most of the world sees our 150,000 troops in Iraq as an unwarranted foreign occupation. Syrian troops were far more welcome in Lebanon. The statement that should scare all Americans (and the world) is the assurance by Secretary Rice that the President needs no additional authority from Congress to attack Syria. She argues that authority already has been granted by the resolutions on 9/11 and Iraq. This is not true.”

President Putin spoke to Iranian President Ahmadinejad on 25 October about Iran's nuclear program and possible action by the UN Security Council according to Russian media . He reiterated that the standoff over Iranian nuclear activities should be resolved "by political means within the framework of the International Atomic Energy Agency [IAEA]. Putin also reportedly suggested that Iranian cooperation with the IAEA be broadened and Tehran's talks with EU-3 (Britain, France, and Germany) be resumed . Russia reportedly would propose a compromise plan ,under which Iran could process uranium ore but not enrich uranium or produce nuclear fuel, AFP reported



NATO –SCO competition in Central Asia;



The one day meeting of Shanghai Cooperation Organization (SCO) in Moscow on 26 October was attended by Mongolian Chinese Prime Minister Wen Jiabao ,Prime Minister Tsakhiagiyn Elbegdorzh, Pakistani Prime Minister Shaukat Aziz, Indian Foreign Minister Natwar Singh, and Iranian First Vice President Parviz Davudi in Moscow on 26 October agreed on a "road map" that will include agreements on mutual cooperation in emergency situations and signed several economic accords.



Speaking at a meeting President Putin said the SCO had become an "influential factor" in the world He said that "the total population of SCO member countries and observer countries is more than 3 billion people, and during such meetings the leaders of these countries, the heads of the governments of our countries, make and will continue to make decisions that influence the social and economic well-being of an overwhelming majority of the population of our planet." Putin added that joint antiterrorism efforts remain a priority for the SCO, equating the recent terrorist attacks in Nalchik with the unrest in Uzbekistan in May as "examples of the terrorist threat."



The SCO comprises Russia, China, Kazakhstan, Uzbekistan, Kyrgyzstan, and Tajikistan, while Iran, India, Pakistan, and Mongolia enjoy observer status. India among observer countries wants to become full member. What if Iran too joins then SCO would stretch right up to eastern Mediterranean via Iran, Syria and Lebanon of the Hizbullahs .



Russian Parliament (Duma) Foreign Affairs Committee Chairman Konstantin Kosachev rejected western media claims that the SCO represented an effort to create a new anti-NATO military alliance .It is a classical western media logic that everything that happens in the world without their country is directed against it, Kosachev added. Politika Foundation head Vyacheslav Nikonov said contradictions between SCO members like China, India, and Pakistan were so great that talk of a military bloc was impossible now and in the foreseeable future, but the human resources and economic potential of the SCO made Western concerns understandable .In 20 years, China and India could become the largest and third-largest economies in the world with the nuclear and energy superpower Russia the fifth-largest economy in the world.



CIS Institute Deputy Director Vladimir Zharikhin said that Russia and Kazakhstan are unhappy that 90 percent of their energy resources are exported to the West, when the center of global economic development is shifting eastward in the region of SCO .He said. "We might like European culture, but Russia's economic interests will be directed toward the centers of accelerating economic growth, namely China and India."



Yes, Pakistan , USA’s non-Nato ally remains a centre of terrorism , with many attempts on the life of its ruler President Gen Musharraf’s life from inside its military ranks . While India and Pakistan have made progress on peace, Indian Prime Minister was forced to tell Gen Musharraf that terrorists who killed over 60 Indians in bomb blasts in Delhi before the festivals of Hindus and Muslims originated from Pakistan controlled areas.



Curiously ,Nato has now officially entered Pakistan Kashmir to help post earthquake relief operations . But would it leave! More so because when US foolishly tried to over reach in Uzbekistan and Kyrgyzstan to install friendly rulers through its “franchised street level revolutions , but failed . So US is unlikely to give up its control over Pakistan exercised through its armed forces and its intelligence services ISI , forged with Pakistan’s Gen Ayub Khan since 1958. With Gen Musharraf rightly suspicious of his own military ranks , as the latest sentences passed on those who tried to murder him in end 2003 thrice reveals , he might not be averse to Nato Military presence as another intelligence window , apart from many US FBI agents already active in Pakistan .USA and the West which acquiesced in Pakistan making the nuclear bombs for its support against USSR in Afghanistan now remain worried about Pakistani nukes in case extremists try to take over in Pakistan. Pakistan military has shown little compunction in selling nuclear technology and equipment to countries like Libya, Iran and some others too.



(K Gajendra Singh, served as Indian Ambassador to Turkey and Azerbaijan in1992 -96. Prior to that, he served as ambassador to Jordan (during the 1990 - 91Gulf war), Romania and Senegal . He is currently chairman of the Foundation for Indo-Turkic Studies, in Bucharest .- Email-Gajendrak@hotmail.com
Snuffysmith
http://english.aljazeera.net/NR/exeres/8E2...A7FFE809146.htm


Bolton pushes for new Syria resolution
Thursday 03 November 2005, 18:35 Makka Time, 15:35 GMT

Bolton said sovereignty had not been restored to Lebanon

US Ambassador John Bolton has said he wants another UN resolution forcing Syria to withdraw any intelligence agents it keeps in Lebanon, although Russia and other Security Council members appeared unwilling to support further action.

"We certainly see a resolution that continued to push for full implementation of 1559," Bolton said, referring to the measure adopted in September 2004 demanding the withdrawal of foreign forces from Lebanon and the disbanding of militia.

He said such a resolution would not be drawn up for several weeks. "The conclusion of 1559 that Lebanon should be restored to full sovereignty and territorial integrity has not been met," he said.

Bolton was speaking on Wednesday after Security Council consultations on a 26 October report from special UN envoy Terje Roed-Larsen, who said Syria had withdrawn all its troops but no one could be sure if agents still remained. He also said arms were still flowing to Palestinians and other militia in Lebanon.


The Syrian Deputy PM said his
country could weather sanctions

Russia's UN ambassador, Andrei Denisov, thought another measure would be "overkill". On Monday the council adopted a tough resolution ordering Syria to detain officials suspected in a plot to kill former Lebanese prime minister Rafiq al-Hariri or face possible punitive action.

"How many times can you kill one person - two times, five times or 10 times when one time is enough?" Denisov asked. "And that is the case here."

Other Security Council diplomats said they had no immediate plans to pass another resolution.

Arms smuggling

Roed-Larsen's report said weapons were still being smuggled across the Syrian border to Palestinian refugee camps in Lebanon but he would not say whether Damascus was responsible.

"It is not disputed by the government of Syria nor the government of Lebanon that there are arms flows and even that there have been massive arms flows across the border," albeit in both directions, Roed-Larsen said after the consultations.

He told reporters he was not in a position to say who supplied the arms.

Syria's UN ambassador Fayssal Mekdad denied his government was shipping weapons to Lebanon.

"Syria will not allow this, did not allow this. This is not in the interest of either Syria or Lebanon," Mekdad said. "Our position is not to allow any such activity."

Hizb Allah talks


Roed-Larsen said weapons were
being smuggled into Lebanon


Roed-Larsen said he was encouraged that the leader of the Hizb Allah resistance group, also a legal party in Lebanon, was talking to the Lebanese government about its status.

"I found that an encouraging and a very productive comment," he said. "What we are doing at this point is to encourage the government of Lebanon to go into a dialogue with the militia to disband and disarm consistent with 1559."

Hizb Allah chief Shaikh Hassan Nasr Allah has spoken in favour of a dialogue but also said his group would not disarm as long as Israel was a threat.

Hizb Allah, also backed by Iran, takes credit for forcing Israeli troops to withdraw from South Lebanon in May 2000 after 22 years of occupation.

Syria unconcerned

As the potential threat of economic sanctions loomed over Syria, Damascus Deputy Prime Minister Abd Allah Dardari told Reuters his country could weather an embargo.

Monday’s Security Council resolution did not include sanctions but warns of ‘further action’ that could include an embargo if the UN considers Syria to be uncooperative with the al-Hariri probe.

"How many times can you kill one person - two times, five times or 10 times when one time is enough?... And that is the case here."

Andrei Denisov,
Russia's UN ambassador


Dardari said Syria's ample foreign reserves and small debt would give it resilience against any sanctions.

"The past years of relative isolation are proving to be somehow useful as we are self-sufficient in many areas," Reuters quoted Dardari as saying.

"In our dealings we are stronger because we are less dependent and the economy is less exposed to foreign external pressures," said Dardari, whose country produces 450,000 barrels per day (bpd) of crude oil and exports about 250,000 bpd.

However Dardari acknowledged that international sanctions would still disrupt trade, especially with the European Union, the destination for half of Syria's exports and the origin of 37% of its imports.

"There is no country that is 100% self sufficient. It's stupid to think we are not going to be affected to some extent," he said.
Snuffysmith
Syrian Bigwigs and Capital Flee under Implied Threat of Military Action

DEBKAfile Special Report

November 1, 2005, 2:30 PM (GMT+02:00)

The threat of military action was embedded in the UN Security Council resolution. It was reinforced by US Secretary of state Condoleezza Rice when she spoke of “serious’ consequences” – diplomatic parlance for military action – should Syria fail to cooperate with the final and conclusive part of UN investigator Dehlev Mehlis’ inquiry into the murder of Lebanese leader Rafiq Hariri last February.

The explicit threat of economic sanctions was deleted from the American-British-French draft demanding Damascus’ cooperation. It was dropped for the sake of a unanimous 15:0 endorsement to appease Russian, Chinese and Algerian objections. Instead, the resolution called for unspecific “measures.” However the motion was adopted under Chapter VII of the UN Charter, which spells out these measures as being “partial interruption of economic relations and of rail, sea, air, postal, telegraph, and other means of communication, and severance of diplomatic relations.”

The same chapter permits the use of armed force if those measures fall short of their purpose. Syria is required to detain any suspects named by the UN investigators and hand them over for interrogation at places and in conditions determined by those investigators.

The second tough clause states: suspects may be subject to a travel ban and a freeze on their assets.

Rice and British foreign secretary Jack Straw both addressed the Security Council session to strengthen the implied phased threats of the resolution.

Faced with this torrent of menacing language, Bashar Assad’s close associates have already decided that escape is the better part of valor. Influential Syrian VIPs appear to have read the UN resolution carefully last week and are absconding. DEBKAfile’s intelligence sources reveal large cash withdrawals from Syrian banks, currency conversions and transfers to banks outside the country.

The flight of money was accompanied by an exodus of some of the leading families of Damascus – anxious to beat “the ban on travel and assets freeze” mandated by the UN resolution for suspects in the Hariri murder plot.

The largest capital transfer – estimated at $6-7bn – was made by the tycoon Rami Makhlouf who lost no time in removing himself, business and family from Damascus to Dubai.

Makhlouf’s defection is a mortal blow for Assad and his shrinking circle of supporters. He is not only the manager of the Assad clans’ finances, his is also a close kinsman; Bashar’s mother is his aunt, sister of his father General Adnan Makhlouf, who served the late president Hafez Assad in a top position of trust as commander of the presidential guard.

His huge capital transfer and removal of his business center from the Syrian capital are capable of bringing the national economy crashing down about Assad’s ears.

His is not the only defection. Several other affluent Syrian businessmen close to the regime have also decamped. The second richest man in the country, Firas Tlas, has moved lock, stock and barrel, to Abu Dhabi. DEBKAfile’s sources report the secret flit of General Bahajat Suleiman, head of Syria’s intelligence council and virtual overlord of the national clandestine services.

Desperate to drum up support from his fellow Arab leaders, Assad demanded an Arab League summit but was informed that a narrow forum was the most that can be convened.

UN investigator Mehlis and his team were back at work in Beirut soon after the Security Council resolution was passed Monday night, Oct. 31. Mid-December is his deadline for winding up his probe.

Bashar Assad is confronted head-on now with a dilemma: which of his close relative should he surrender as a scapegoat? His young brother Maher Assad, or his sister’s husband, Assed Shawqat? Both top the Mehlis list of Syrian suspects in the Hariri murder plot.
Snuffysmith
UN Double Standards Again on Display With Syria Resolution

By Salim Lone

The beginning of the drive to justify the use of force or other serious actions against Syria for its possible involvement in Rafiq Hariri’s killing is reminiscent of the run-up to the 2003 US-led war against Iraq. As then, it is the United Nations Security Council which is the instrument for escalating the tensions.
http://www.informationclearinghouse.info/article10861.htm
Snuffysmith
Throwing Stones Punishable By Death:

Israeli soldiers shoot Palestinian boy, 13 :

Live bullets struck the boy in the head and stomach, Palestinian medical officials said.
http://www.guardian.co.uk/israel/Story/0,2...1607824,00.html
Snuffysmith
Palestinians 'terrorised' by sonic boom flights :

Human rights groups launched a High Court battle to stop the "physical and mental harm" to Gaza's civilian population they say is caused by Israel's new weapon against militant attacks: the sonic boom.
http://news.independent.co.uk/world/middle...ticle324316.ece
Snuffysmith
Israel: War by remote control :

As opposed to the expectations of many, the disengagement has not brought about real progress toward peace, but undoubtedly caused a revolutionary change in the way war is conducted.
http://www.haaretz.com/hasen/spages/641018.html
Snuffysmith
Israel: Students protest against racism :

A Channel 10 TV news footage revealed that Jews who were not affiliated with the university were allowed to obtain memberships while Arabs not affiliated with the university were turned away.
http://www.haaretzdaily.com/hasen/spages/641391.html
Snuffysmith
Hillary Clinton to visit Israel, meet with Sharon :

Senator Hillary Clinton will travel to Israel next week and meet with Prime Minister Ariel Sharon to discuss security issues, her office said Wednesday.
http://www.haaretzdaily.com/hasen/spages/641299.html
Snuffysmith
A decade after Rabin's death, his legacy still divides
The Israeli leader was killed Nov. 4, 1995, by a young assassin bent on
stopping his land deals with Palestinians. By Ilene R. Prusher
http://www.csmonitor.com/2005/1104/p07s01-wome.html?s=hns
Snuffysmith
Sharon: Hamas out of election:

Israeli Prime Minister Ariel Sharon told the cabinet Sunday that Hamas cannot participate in the Palestinian election, contradicting his own defense minister.
http://www.upi.com/NewsTrack/view.php?Stor...06-114220-6340r
Snuffysmith
Sharon Says No to Negotiations with Syria :

The prime minister said, “Israel has no intention of conducting any peace negotiations.”
http://www.israelnn.com/news.php3?id=92528
Snuffysmith
Palestinians donate son's kidney for Israeli boy :

The family of a 12-year-old Palestinian boy who was killed by Israeli soldiers have donated one of his kidneys to an Israeli boy. "It doesn't matter whether the recipient was a Jew or an Arab," they said.
http://news.independent.co.uk/world/middle...ticle325229.ece
Snuffysmith
Russian Company to Build Two Billion Dollar Oil Refinery in Syria :

Talks also referred to the possibility for the Russian company to finance another project for developing Banyas Refinery on the Syrian Coast.
http://www.champress.net/english/index.php...show_det&id=978
Snuffysmith
http://rawstory.com/news/2005/Boston_Globe...tting_1107.html

Boston Globe to report U.S. cutting diplomatic ties with Syria
RAW STORY

The United States has cut off nearly all contact with the Syrian government as the Bush administration steps up a campaign to weaken and isolate President Bashar al-Assad's regime, according to US and Syrian officials, the Boston Globe will report in Tuesday editions, RAW STORY has learned.

"The United States has halted high-level diplomatic meetings, limited military coordination on Syria's border with Iraq, and ended dialogue with Syria's Finance Ministry on amending its banking laws to block terrorist financing," the Globe's Farah Stockman and Thanassis Cambanis write. "In recent months, as distrust between the two countries widened, the United States also declined a proposal from Syria to revive intelligence cooperation with Syria, according to Syria's ambassador to the United States, Imad Moustapha, and a US official."

They add, "The US-Syrian confrontation has sharpened just as Syria is also facing pressure from many Arab and European governments - as well as the United States - over Syria's suspected role in the assassination of the former prime minister of Lebanon, Rafik Hariri."

"When the time was best for [cooperation], they played games, and now it looks like they are trying to make up some ground," a senior U.S. official tells the Globe...

DEVELOPING HARD LATE...
Snuffysmith
http://fairuse.1accesshost.com/news5/wapoblog.htm

William M. Arkin on National and Homeland Security


Wag the Damascus?

Last year, U.S. intelligence agencies and military planners received instructions to prepare up-to-date target lists for Syria and to increase their preparations for potential military operations against Damascus.

According to internal intelligence documents and discussions with military officers involved in the planning, U.S. Central Command (CENTCOM) in Tampa was directed by Secretary of Defense Donald Rumsfeld to prepare a "strategic concept" for Syria, the first step in creation of a full fledged war plan.


The planning process, according to the internal documents, includes courses of action for cross border operations to seal the Syrian-Iraqi border and destroy safe havens supporting the Iraqi insurgency, attacks on Syrian weapons of mass destruction infrastructure supporting the development of biological and chemical weapons, and attacks on the regime of Syria's President Bashar al-Assad.

Though Syria was never mentioned by President Bush as a charter member of the "axis of evil" for developing weapons of mass destruction and support international terrorism, it has long been on the administration's radar screen.

The January 2002 Nuclear Posture Review levied requirements on the military to conduct planning for potential use of nuclear weapons against Russia, China, Iran, Iraq, Libya, Syria, and North Korea.

On April 1, 2002, almost a full year before the invasion of Iraq, Secretary Rumsfeld accused Iran, Iraq and Syria of "inspiring and financing a culture of political murder and suicide bombing."

On May 6, 2002, in a speech to the Heritage Foundation entitled "Beyond the Axis of Evil," Under Secretary of State John Bolton identified Libya, Syria and Cuba as countries that were attempting to procure weapons of mass destruction. "States that renounce terror and abandon WMD can become part of our effort. But those that do not can expect to become our targets," he said.

During Operation Iraqi Freedom itself, according to Gen. Tommy Franks' book, American Soldier (p. 510), U.S. intelligence reported that Iraqi Ba'athist leaders and their families were fleeing to Syria in convoys of Mercedes and SUVs. Secretary Rumsfeld publicly accused Syria of being engaged in "hostile acts" by delivering military equipment to Iraq. Later, according to Inside CENTCOM (p. 121), a slim autobiography of Lt. Gen. Michael DeLong, Franks' deputy as CENTCOM, the US discovered "that Syria had been shipping military supplies, including night vision goggles, to Iraq."

On April 9, 2003, the day that U.S. military forces flooded into central Baghdad, Bolton again warned Iran and Syria that those pursuing weapons of mass destruction should "draw the appropriate lesson from Iraq."

While planning for Afghanistan and Iraq, and while the Iraq war was going on, the office of the Assistant Secretary of Defense for Requirements, Plans and Counterproliferation Policy was leading a top to bottom review of war plans, revising the Presidentially-approved Contingency Planning Guidance (CPG) to account for "emerging threats." The draft CPG for 2003 mandated 11 prioritized families of plans at four levels of detail, due to Rumsfeld by mid-2004. The April, 2004 CPG draft for President Bush's signature further refined post-Iraq planning requirements.

Months after the draft CPG for 2004 was circulated, according to the internal documents, the Defense Intelligence Agency (DIA) was directed to beef up its Syria work. The Military Forces Analysis Office of the Directorate for Analysis established a special task force preparing order of battle (OB) and military forces analysis for Syria. Order of battle is an intelligence term that refers to characterizing the force structure, equipment, capabilities, and key military leadership.

DIA is responsible for maintaining the Modernized Integrated Database (MIDB), the repository of ground, air, naval, and missile order of battle for foreign countries. The MIDB also serves as the basis for developing target lists for a military campaign.

One novel element of new planning for Syria, according to the documents, involves the work of the IO [information operations] Fusion Support Center of DIA's Directorate for Analysis. To support target "options" development, analysts have been directed to evaluate the vulnerability of critical "nodes" in Syria, including:

"human factors analysis" regarding the identification and behavior of Syrian regime leaders and other important decision-makers in Syria

design and vulnerabilities of Syrian communications and information infrastructure, and

"electric power generation, transmission and distribution facilities and systems."

Military planning for Syria was thus initiated long before the United Nations report implicating the Syrian regime in the February assassination of Lebanese Prime Minister Rafik Hariri, a vocal critic of Damascus. And it should be pointed out that much of the new military planning is also related to Syria's overt and clandestine support for the Iraqi insurgency, as well as its continued harboring of former Iraqi Ba'athists and their families.

But when the UN last Monday endorsed a resolution demanding Syria fully and unconditionally cooperates with the UN investigation into the February assassination, new international confirmation was given to Syria's mantle as a rogue state. The resolution warns of possible "further action." Secretary of State Condoleezza Rice said the resolution "made it clear that failure to comply with these demands will lead to serious consequences from the international community."

In some ways, military officers involved in the high-level planning efforts say Syria has eclipsed Iran in CENTCOM's play book as much because of practicality as imminent threat. Iran is four times larger than Iraq with three times the population. Syria is in a difficult geographic position, especially with U.S. bases and forces in Iraq and its proximity to U.S. military strength in the Mediterranean. U.S. forces have also been operating along the Syrian border since early 2003, and there have been numerous reports of clashes between U.S. and Syrian forces on Syrian soil, as well as reports of U.S. special operations forces operating inside Syria on select missions.

Though Syria's possession of WMD was the early justification for contingency planning for the country -- even for American nuclear weapons planning -- I imagine that in light of the Iraq intelligence failure and the current scandals, the administration would now have an impossible time selling WMD charges to the international community. But now all of the pieces could easily fall into place without even any mention of WMD. Political genius Karl Rove would be proud.
Snuffysmith
http://www.washingtonpost.com/wp-dyn/conte...0802070_pf.html

washingtonpost.com
Inside and Outside Syria, a Debate to Decide the Future

By Anthony Shadid
Washington Post Foreign Service
Wednesday, November 9, 2005; A25



LONDON -- The man who may help decide the future of Syria sits in a tidy, two-story house at the end of a drab street of a London suburb, about 2,200 miles from home. Upstairs is his office. Downstairs is a television tuned to the Arabic-language network al-Arabiya, broadcasting another news bulletin on his country, from which he was forced to leave 26 years ago.

"I live here like a stranger," said Ali Sadreddin Bayanouni, the leader of the outlawed Muslim Brotherhood, the most powerful opposition movement in Syria.

Bayanouni's years of exile, though, are tempered by the modern world. Each day, dozens of e-mails arrive from among 300 addresses in Syria, keeping him abreast of the latest at home. He stays in contact with his fellow Brotherhood leaders, flung across Jordan, Saudi Arabia and Europe. His British cell phone is inundated with text messages. Over last week's Muslim holiday, he received one he called especially memorable. The well-wisher said that, next year, he hoped Bayanouni would be in Damascus. "This regime is probably going to collapse," Bayanouni said bluntly. "It could happen in a week, it could take a year."

For Bayanouni and other exiles, and for Syrian officials and activists inside the country, these days are unlike any in a generation, perhaps any in Syria's modern history. Together, they are retooling ideologies, staking out visions and positioning themselves for a place in Syria's future, even as its present remains opaque amid the crisis over a U.N. investigation that implicated Syrian officials in the assassination of former Lebanese prime minister Rafiq Hariri in February.

The debate goes to the heart of questions that have remained unanswered since Syria's independence in 1946: What is the nature of Syrian society, religious or secular? How is its identity best represented? And will Syria's combustible diversity lead to its disintegration?

After 42 years of Baath Party rule, Syria is often portrayed as a country shackled by dictatorship. But in the debate over its identity is a more nuanced portrait of a country every bit as complex as neighboring Iraq and Lebanon. It also reflects the same forces reshaping the rest of the Arab world: tensions between Islamic and secular activists, attempts by government reformers to salvage ideologies many see as obsolete, and moves toward civil society that are frustrated at almost every turn.

In Syria, some of those currents have converged in an unusual way in Middle Eastern politics: Secular and religious figures, still tentatively, are adopting the same language to press for change in the face of authoritarianism.

Both spectator and participant in the debate, Bayanouni sits over a small cup of Turkish coffee and a plate of pastries for which Syria is famous. He interrupts a conversation to watch an al-Arabiya report on possible involvement of President Bashar Assad's relatives in Hariri's death.

"Syrian society today is destroyed," he said. "The primary aim right now is to transform society into a new era where political and democratic life will be rebuilt." He describes himself as optimistic, but says it almost as if he were reassuring himself.

Plotting a Return

Bayanouni is a rare figure in the Muslim Brotherhood, one of the Arab world's oldest Islamic organizations. Founded in 1928 in Egypt, chapters are spread across the Arab world, answering in name to the Egyptian Brotherhood but operating on their own. Syria's Brotherhood was founded in 1945. Bayanouni entered the leadership in the 1970s. As its leader since 1996, he has tried to reform its positions, winning unlikely accolades from other opposition figures, including secular activists who have spent their careers trying to stem Islam's growing influence in Syrian life.

At 67, Bayanouni defies the image of a religious scholar. A father of seven, he is a trim, athletic man, fond of tennis, volleyball and swimming, with a knack for table tennis. He has the probing mind of a sharp lawyer, with a political sense that has helped him navigate the ebb and flow of the Brotherhood's fortunes over decades of sometimes violent activism.

In the early years of Syrian independence, the Brotherhood built support in cities such as Homs, Hama and Aleppo, populated by Syria's majority Sunni Muslims. Long in competition with the secular Baath Party and Communist Party, it proselytized with the slogan, "Islam is the solution," insisting that the ills of the modern world could be treated by a renewed faith.

In the 1970s, the struggle brought the group into conflict with Hafez Assad, a military leader from the minority Alawite sect, an offshoot of Shiite Islam. The Brotherhood and splinter groups assassinated Baathists and Alawite officers and launched attacks in Damascus and elsewhere. The government responded with brute force, leading to what some describe as a civil war, culminating in the crushing of an uprising in 1982 in Hama where estimates of the dead range from 10,000 to 30,000. The movement's leadership was killed, jailed or exiled, its organization inside Syria dismantled.

"The organization made a mistake by being dragged into this battle with the regime," Bayanouni said.

Since then, Bayanouni has been engaged in a process of trying to lay the groundwork for the Brotherhood's return to Syrian politics. His effort is still shadowed by fears that the fall of Assad's government would inaugurate conservative Islamic rule, reversing decades of state-sponsored secularism. The effort, over the objections of some in his group, also marks one of the most decisive shifts in Syrian opposition politics in recent years.

"The organization is not going to be an alternative to this regime," he said. "The alternative will be a broad-based national government to which the Muslim Brotherhood will contribute, as does any other political force."

Among the various Syrian political factions -- Islamic activists, Arab nationalists, Syrian nationalists, communists and other leftists -- nearly every party has abandoned the revolutionary, generation-old notion that it alone can serve as the agent of change. The Baath Party has not; the constitution still declares it "the leading party of both the society and the state." In Bayanouni's words, and in a spate of declarations, the Brotherhood has forsworn that role, mirroring reforms of the group in other countries including Egypt and Jordan.

In 2002, Bayanouni published a national charter that called for a democratic state and rejected violence. In 2004, the Brotherhood disavowed the idea that "we consider ourselves to be the movement that represents all Muslims." In the same document, it endorsed women's rights and said it would seek only the gradual introduction of Islamic law, leaving the actual legislation to elected representatives. (Requiring women to wear the veil, segregating education or banning alcohol "are not a priority at this point," Bayanouni said in the interview.) A year later, in a National Call for Salvation, the Brotherhood disavowed revenge for past crimes and called for political parties and free elections.

Last month, it joined secular and minority opposition groups in endorsing what was called the Damascus Declaration, a four-page manifesto hailed by a still-feeble Syrian opposition as a blueprint for an alternative to Assad's government and a first for cooperation between secular and religious activists.

"The Muslim Brotherhood," Bayanouni said, "is ready to accept others and to deal with them. We believe that Syria is for all its people, regardless of sect, ethnicity or religion. No one has the right to exclude anyone else."

While the moves have won Bayanouni respect among Syria's opposition, fears still run deep that a chasm remains between the Brotherhood's promises and intentions. Anxiety is particularly strong among Syria's minorities -- Christians and Shiite Muslim offshoots such as the Ismailis, Alawites and Druze. To many, the Brotherhood remains an instrument for domination by Syria's Sunni majority. The same fears originally gave rise in part to the Baath Party's Arab nationalism, which was offered as a more encompassing identity than narrow religious sectarianism.

And in Bayanouni's home, his words can still carry an edge. He says the Brotherhood is only one of many Islamic groups, and he claims the government exaggerates his organization's power to frighten secularists and minorities. But in the same moment, he insists the Brotherhood is the only group representing the Sunni majority and the one with the most support. "Everyone recognizes this," he said.

A Militant Undercurrent

In Damascus, Mohammed Habash, a member of parliament and representative of what he calls the liberal trend in political Islam, speaks with a calm that belies the iconoclasm of his words. His ideas are unusual for a Muslim scholar: Islam is not the only path to salvation, he insists, and the prophet Mohammad made mistakes. Reinterpretation is mandatory, he said. The veil, for instance, is not an obligation.

Habash's worry is not the secularism that has dominated Syrian life, but the example of neighboring Iraq, where a more militant brand of Islam filled the void after the collapse of 35 years of authoritarian rule. "I believe we're headed for black days. Let's be honest. You can't put sugar on death," he said, quoting a proverb.

While the Brotherhood's words have assured some in Syria, others worry that the Brotherhood itself may be overshadowed by more militant Islamic groups that would feed off the growing religiosity of Syrian society. That trend is often expressed in outward signs of piety. The spread of the veil is the most striking manifestation. So are men's beards and the burgeoning crowds that turn out for Friday prayers, even in such ritzy Damascus districts as Malki and Abu Rommaneh.

No one knows the strength of the more militant current, whose voice remains largely unarticulated. But reports of the emergence of militant cells -- Jund al-Sham, for instance -- have sent a chill through secular Syria.

"I do not fear the Muslim Brotherhood of the 1950s," said Nabil Sukkar, a former World Bank economist in Damascus. "Moderate Islamists are welcome. I don't think they pose a threat whatsoever. The fear is the extremist Islamists and whether or not they are the majority. I don't know the answer."

Habash estimated 50 percent of Syrians to be religious. Of those, 10 percent are liberal, he said; the rest are inclined to a more traditional or militant reading of Islam. Their influence in the event of change is what worries him. "Conservative Muslims are sleeping now in political life," he said.

Echoing the official line, Habash added: "There's no chance for radicals under the government of Bashar Assad. But if he is gone, the radicals maybe have a chance to do something in Syria."

Political Alternatives

Bouthaina Shaaban has a vision for a secular Syria, an alternative to Habash's fears. A government minister, she is seeking to modernize a ruling ideology deemed by critics to be obsolete and perhaps irredeemable.

As a 16-year-old girl, Shaaban joined the Baath Party when it was still imbued with the ideals of Arab unity and socialism as a means of development. Her loyalty to the Assad family runs deep: After a personal plea to the elder Assad, he revised a law that made it possible for her to attend college. Her fear of the family's demise runs deep.

"There's nothing wrong with the theories of the Baath Party. The Baath Party is a secular party for a start." the 52-year-old minister said. "It says equality between men and women, it gives every Syrian from any social, or religious or political background the right to join the Baath Party. But there were many things that were not done right by the Baath Party, there are many things that need to be fixed. Now the Baath Party is at a stage that if it wants to survive, it has to reform itself."

She has her prescription: a new law for political parties, a market economy and, eventually, free elections. Her model, she said, is Syria in the early 1970s, when there was a sense of economic development, not the 1940s, with its semblance of democratic life. Her remark suggested that the government is dedicated to development over liberalization, modernization over democratization. But the question remains as to what degree of tolerance it will provide.

"I'm not optimistic at all," said Maen Abdul-Salam, a 35-year-old, soft-spoken activist and writer, who smiles rarely. He, too, has a secular vision: the emergence of a vibrant civil society, despite the government's efforts to prevent it. "I'm not optimistic for one simple reason: I hear every day the Syrian authority is willing to change and reform, but I haven't heard one comment that we made a mistake. You can't reform if you don't admit mistakes. You can't go forward if you don't say 'I'm sorry.' "

Abdul-Salam had his own encounter with promises of reform. With another activist, he began planning a conference on women's rights in Damascus in 2001. He went to the minister of social affairs, who promised permission in two days. Two years later -- after more than 100 additional visits, sometimes sitting for six hours at a time outside the minister's office -- he was still waiting. He finally held the conference in 2003 at Damascus University, whose well-connected president provided the facilities.

With little money, Abdul-Salam runs a publishing house, Etana, a name taken from Assyrian mythology. The house is an alternative to starting a nongovernmental organization, which is next to impossible. He was politicized by the "Damascus Spring," a brief period in 2000-2001 that saw a flourishing of long-repressed dissent. And now he sees his mission as creating more space for openness.

"It's like breaking through the wall," Abdul-Salam said. "It's saying to people you have the ability to do something. You can change, you can force change, you can push the red lines the authorities have put in front of you. They can fall."

But he worries about the legacy of decades of authoritarianism that have depoliticized society, wrecking the lively civic culture of the 1940s and 1950s. There is no representation, no rule of law, and in that vacuum, he said, people identify themselves according to their sect and ethnicity -- Sunni, Alawite, Christian and so on. To him, identity has to be based on citizenship, equal rights under one law.

"I'm hoping that change will come from society itself," he said.

'Accept the Other'

At his home in London, Bayanouni talks about returning to the alleys of Jubaila, the quarter of Old Aleppo where he grew up. His father died while in prison in 1975, his mother after he went into exile in 1979. But, he said smiling, he will visit the rest of his family. "There are relatives I don't even know," he said.

For some Islamic activists, years in the West radicalize them, reinforcing their alienation in a culture that's not their own. Not Bayanouni. He said his time in exile helped him reconsider his beliefs.

"One of the things I learned," he said, "was to accept the other."

And in that is perhaps one of the greatest ironies of Arab politics today. To a remarkable degree, albeit with different inflections and still untested, some secular and religious activists are speaking a common language of citizenship and individual rights in the face of authoritarian governments. Bayanouni, echoing Abdul-Salam, said he wanted to see "a civil state based on democratic institutions."

"The religion of the majority is Islam, and the ethnicity of the majority is Arab," he said. "Those are facts on the ground, but citizenship is the base on which people should interact. Whatever is the result of the democratic process should be accepted."

© 2005 The Washington Post Company
Snuffysmith
http://www.csmonitor.com/2005/1109/dailyUpdate.html?s=mesdu
World > Terrorism & Security
posted November 9, 2005 at 11:00 a.m.

Is US planning an Iraq-style 'regime change' in Syria?

A new intelligence report, however, says any successor to Assad's regime won't be any friendlier to US.

By Tom Regan | csmonitor.com

While publicly Bush administration officials say they just want to see a "change in behavior" from Syria, The Boston Globe reported Tuesday that some of these officials are saying privately that there is an active debate about whether "regime change" (the use of military force to remove the current Syrian administration) should be a US goal. The discussions come as the US has decided to cut off nearly all contact with the Syria, in an effort to "weaken and isolate" President Bashir Assad's government.
Syrian officials say that they have made progress on many US demands, including stepping up patrols along the Iraq border. They also claim that "powerful neoconservative policymakers in Washington have long hoped to topple their government in a bid to transform the Middle East."

William Arkin, who writes about national and homeland security for The Washington Post, wrote that even before last Monday's vote at the United Nations, where the UN Security Council demanded that Syria support "fully and unconditionally" the investigation into the February assassination of Lebanese politician Rafik Hariri, the US had upgraded its plans for possible military action against Syria. Mr. Arkin writes that internal intelligence documents and conversations with military officers involved in the planning show that US Central Command was directed last year to prepare a "strategic concept" for Syria, "the first step in creation of a full fledged war plan. "



11/08/05

Did the US military use chemical weapons in Iraq?

11/07/05

Prewar report cast doubt on Iraq-Al Qaeda connection

11/04/05

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In some ways, military officers involved in the high-level planning efforts say Syria has eclipsed Iran in CENTCOM's play book as much because of practicality as imminent threat. Iran is four times larger than Iraq with three times the population. Syria is in a difficult geographic position, especially with US bases and forces in Iraq and its proximity to US military strength in the Mediterranean. US forces have also been operating along the Syrian border since early 2003, and there have been numerous reports of clashes between US and Syrian forces on Syrian soil, as well as reports of US special operations forces operating inside Syria on select missions.

Though Syria's possession of WMD was the early justification for contingency planning for the country – even for American nuclear weapons planning – I imagine that in light of the Iraq intelligence failure and the current scandals, the administration would now have an impossible time selling WMD charges to the international community. But now all of the pieces could easily fall into place without even any mention of WMD. Political genius Karl Rove would be proud.

A new US intelligence report, however, calls into question the idea of Iraq-style regime change. The new intelligence assessment was compiled in late September 2005 by the office of John Negroponte, the director of National Security. Knight Ridder reports that the new document says that anyone who replaced Bashir Assad would likely have to come "from the ruling leadership who'd pursue the same policies or even more confrontational ones, according to officials who've read it or been briefed on its contents." Knight Ridder also reports that "such is the concern over destabilizing Syria" that even its chief enemy, Israel, has told the US to "proceed cautiously."

Columnist Abdul Wahab Badrakhan wrote Saturday in the Lebanese newspaper Dar Al-Hayat that the "comparisons between Iraq and Syria" will likely temper any plans for "regime change" in Syria. It notes that the US wants to change the regime in Syria, but "it is following a completely different strategy."

The first reason is that the US is not tense and anxious as the case was in Iraq. Secondly, this time it wants international support. Thirdly, it is unsure of the consequences on the Iraqi scene. Fourth, Israel only wants to weaken the regime since it is not comfortable about its alternatives. Fifth, Washington itself has not prepared an alternative to the regime as was the case with the Iraqi opposition to Saddam. Sixth, the developments in Iraq do not allow the American administration to think about a military act which would commit more troops, if any would be available, in Syria.
Even opposition figures in Syria say they are concerned about what would happen after a regime change. The Boston Globe reports that Syria has so effectively quashed all forms of protest, that "even the most committed dissidents find themselves in a depressing bind: They're willing to risk prison by speaking out against the regime but are so convinced of their own weakness that they don't want the regime to fall, fearing that only chaos would follow."

Haitham al-Maleh, a 74-year-old human rights lawyer considered one of the most influential opposition leaders, neatly sums up the plight. "We have a problem: The opposition is weak," he said.
Despite his visceral anger at the government he calls a fascist dictatorship, he doesn't want to see it collapse, because he doesn't think there's anything to replace it. "We believe in change step by step," Maleh said. "We don't want to jump and break our necks."

The Daily Star of Lebanon writes that after the recent UN resolution about Syria, the way the "main actors" want to deal with Syria has become clearer. Countries like France and other members of the UN Security Council seem to have convinced the US that "achieving unanimity is more important than using strong language in UN resolutions."
... there is a visible tempering of the previous American attitude, driven by the neoconservative triumphalists, that "Washington should use diplomatic and military force to clear the decks in the Middle East and let the cards fall where they may," in the words of one diplomatic source who is directly involved in these issues.
"Condoleezza Rice, ironically, is carrying out the more pragmatic Colin Powell policies that she had blocked or resisted in the first Bush administration," said one Washington analyst who closely follows US diplomacy in the Middle East and elsewhere.

Arabian Business magazine says that the great concern in Syria is that the West doesn't know what it wants. Joshua Landis, a professor at the University of Oklahoma and an expert on Syria who is currently in Damascus told the magazine that the Syrian government is very unstable. "You can’t really separate [the UN] investigation and ... let the chips fall where they may on the Mehlis report and not call this regime change in this situation. That’s what has this government in complete chaos right now."
Snuffysmith
http://www.nytimes.com/aponline/internatio...094&partner=AOL


At Least 18 Killed as Suicide Bombers Hit 3 Hotels in Amman
By THE ASSOCIATED PRESS
Published: November 9, 2005
Filed at 4:33 p.m. ET

AMMAN, Jordan (AP) -- Suicide bombers attacked three hotels frequented by Westerners in the Jordanian capital Wednesday night, and at least 23 people were killed and more than 120 wounded in the near-simultaneous explosions, police said.

The first blast in Amman, Jordan, occurred at about 8:50 p.m. at the luxury Grand Hyatt hotel and completely shattered its stone entrance.
Maj. Bashir al-Da'aja said officials believe all three blasts were carried out by suicide bombers. The explosions indicated the involvement of al-Qaida, which has launched coordinated attacks on high-profile, Western targets in the past, a police official said.

One explosion occurred in a wedding hall where 300 guests were celebrating. Black smoke rose into the night and wounded stumbled out of the hotels.

A U.S. counterterrorism official, who spoke on condition of anonymity, said no one has claimed responsibility for the attacks.

However, the official said, the strong suspicion is that Abu Musab al-Zarqawi, the Jordanian-born leader of the al-Qaida in Iraq terrorist group, was involved because of his known animosity for Jordan and the fact that suicide bombers were involved, one of his hallmarks.

The first blast was reported at about 8:50 p.m. at the luxury Grand Hyatt hotel, popular with tourists and diplomats, and completely shattered its stone entrance.

An Associated Press reporter counted seven bodies being taken away and many more wounded being carried out on stretchers. Prime Minister Adnan Badran later arrived at the scene.

A few minutes later, police reported an explosion at the Radisson SAS Hotel a short distance away. Police said five people were killed and at least 20 were wounded in the blast at a wedding hall where at least 300 people were celebrating.

The hotel is popular with American and Israeli tourists and was the target of a plot in 2000. Israel's ambassador to Jordan, Yaakov Hadas, told Israel TV from Amman there were no reports of Israeli casualties.

''We thought it was fireworks for the wedding but I saw people falling to the ground,'' said Ahmed, a wedding guest who did not give his surname. ''I saw blood. There were people killed. It was ugly.''

Dana Burde, from New York, was in the lobby of the Radisson at the time of that explosion.

''We were sort of blown out of the room, but the wall sort of caved in,'' Burde told CNN. ''There was a lot of debris, certainly people were killed.''

A third explosion was reported at the Days Inn Hotel, and police said there were casualties.

At the Grand Hyatt, an American businessman said the explosion occurred in the lobby of the five-star hotel. Witnesses saw smoke rising from the building.

The Grand Hyatt Amman has 316 guest rooms and 50 luxury residential apartments in the adjoining Hyatt Tower. The hotel, with a beige-and-cream facade and a shiny gold revolving door, is located in the heart of Amman's business and diplomatic district on Hussein Bin Ali Street.

The five-star Radisson SAS Hotel has 260 guest rooms. Its main entrance is covered by a white portico with several dozen international flags lining the top.

The three hotels have security guards hired from a private Jordanian firm stationed in the reception areas. Each of the hotels has one or two police cars guarding the buildings around the clock.

Amman has become a base for Westerners who fly in and out of Iraq for work. The main luxury hotels downtown are often full of American and British officials and contractors enjoying the relative quiet of the Jordanian capital.

The hotels also have become a gathering spot for affluent Iraqis who have fled their country's violence. Their presence -- and money -- has caused an economic boom, with high-priced prostitution also putting in an appearance.

King Abdullah II cut short his official visit to Kazakhstan and was returning home immediately.

''The hand of justice will get to the criminals who targeted innocent secure civilians with their cowardly acts,'' he said in a statement carried by the official Petra news agency.

Security was beefed up across the capital, especially around hotels and diplomatic missions, police said. Armed policemen and cars patrolled the streets, and Badran declared Thursday a national holiday -- apparently in order to allow tightened security measures to take hold.

Jordan, a close U.S. ally, has arrested scores of Islamic militants for plotting to carry out attacks in the moderate Arab kingdom. It has also sentenced numerous militants to death in absentia, including al-Zarqawi.

In July, prosecutors indicted five Jordanians in an alleged conspiracy to attack intelligence agents, tourists and hotels in Amman. Al-Zarqawi has not been linked to the alleged plot.

U.S. officials believe al-Zarqawi and bin Laden operations chief Abu Zubaydah were chief organizers of a foiled plot to bomb the Radisson SAS.

The attack was to take place during millennium celebrations, but Jordanian authorities stopped it in late 1999. Abu Zubaydah was captured in March 2002 in Faisalabad, Pakistan, in a raid by the CIA, FBI and Pakistani authorities. Al-Zarqawi remains at large.

In August, Iraq's al-Qaida wing claimed responsibility for a rocket attack that barely