http://www.lifeaftertheoilcrash.net/

Just an interesting site with lots of info. Thought some would like it.

It seems like there have been people out there proclaiming a coming apocolypse for years. We use oil for transportation, running machinery and raw materials. I think we are smart enough to quickly put alternatives in place when the time comes.

I liked this quote from the link:



Good excuse to take a good vacation this summer and burn some of what's left in your SUV or pickup truck.

In ten years, they'll be telling stories about "Matt Savinar" rather than, "Chicken Little".

Yes; we are going to hit peak oil, and oil prices will hit $100/barrel for no more than 18 months.

We'll then start generating oil using either the Fischer-Tropff process, or a process I've heard Freedom4All describe that uses electricity and organic material.

So yeah. The stuff about $100 oil is possible; the stuff about die-offs, starvation, and an end to civilization are just the newest version of what I call, "The chicken-little syndrome". 8000 quads of coal in the U.S. ensure it'll never happen during our lifetime; I'm inclined to believe that it never will.

I was forced to work a New Year's Eve due to the last Apocalypse when the clock was to turn from 1999 to the year 2000.

Not only is there coal, but there are a lot of tar sands to be tapped when the price is high enough. They may even drill off the coast of California. Californians like their cars.

The price will go up, however, all the signs are there.

Before anyone complains about oil company conspiracies, I'd just like to remind folks that most of the American side of the industry is publicly traded. If you think that the oil companies are exploiting you, you're free to buy your share of the E&Ps. (Maybe around $2000 worth of stock). If oil prices go higher, you end up making up the difference at the pump in your share of the oil company's profits (assuming your consumption doesn't increase).

Unlikely the sands will ever pan out. It takes two barrels of oil to extract one barrel from tar sands. Unless a "breakthrough" technology comes along, tar sands will never yield any oil.

Really. Well, according to Suncor (the trust that holds most of the currently operating oil sands) at year-end, they can extract oil from the sands at a cost of $13/barrel. This means that they have, at worst an EROI of about 4:1, assuming they did their figuring when oil was at around $50/barrel. That figure got audited by both regular business accountants and engineering accountants, and it's a number that my energy policy professor at UIUC, who happens to be a (relatively small) shareholder of SU, is inclined to believe.

But frankly, while the tar sands will make a few investors very rich, they probably won't make up even a double-digit percentage of oil production twenty years down the road. We'll be too busy converting our 8000 quads of proven, recoverable reserves of coal into oil- or better yet, using nuclear and renewable energy to turn organic materials into crude at a cost of what I've heard as around $100/barrel.

I think it's time to stop being so ridiculously pessimistic. (I'm not saying we should be optimistic, either.) The energy industry today has more tricks up its sleeve for making sure we've got energy than it did back during the OPEC embargo.

I don't think we ought to be pessimistic either. However, I think it is time to become realistic. Oil is going up. The reason for this is that two if the largest populations on the planet, China and India will be using more, raising demand and so raising the price of a limited commodity,

Oil is being imported from countries who aren't among the finest in the world. Some oil money is going to support terrorism.

Burning oil and coal has given many people concerns about global warming.

It's time to maximize the production of domestic fuels in this country. Keep the money here. Keep the soldiers here. Develop new industries for fuel production from waste and agricultural products and we'll be able to both use those products and the spinoffs from their development.

Wouldn't it be great to be able to thumb our noses at OPEC?

Really? IMHO, on the off-chance peak-oil hits us with a vengeance, we'll be kicking ourselves in 15 years for not importing $50/barrel oil from OPEC while we could, rather than using our own reserves.

But making ethanol (when the process uses less gasoline than the ethanol it produces) and biodiesel are wonderful ways of lowering our dependence on OPEC. Sadly, the U.S.'s entire corn harvest would only make enough ethanol to meet 1/3 of our gasoline and diesel needs. That'll be enough to cover us for a while, but it's not a permanent solution, and it'll only eliminate some of our dependance on the Middle East.

It was at a record high of around $58/barrel yesterday. What will keep it to the $50 / barrel? It's a commodity whose price is not under our control. It's under the control of the market. Alternatives will keep that price to $50 / barrel.

Hindsight may make it look dumb in years to come if we have invested in alternative energy and oil was at $50 / barrel. However, I don't think it will be hindsight with a clear focus. Oil won't be at $50 / barrel unless there are alternatives out there. It's supply and demand. Alternatives will give us greater supply and conservation will reduce the demand.

If we don't begin to wisely plan, design, schedule and build infrastructure that will allow us to be free of the shackles of OPEC, we will be in trouble 15 years down the road.

To be honest, I think that's what's going on. As always, the market, long term (over the course of 5-10 years) always rewards the people who plan the most wisely. And I think that some of the wiser investors are starting to at least entertain the idea of peak oil. These days, a lot of people are at least starting to think about planning for the event of $150/barrel oil and $5/gallon gas prices, and the market's getting ready for it. The Amex Airline Index has been down 20% over the past six months, while Union Pacific's and Burlington Northern's stock have gone up by 10% each. The market's starting to favor less oil-intensive forms of transportation, which means we can expect more investment in those areas and ultimately, a more fuel-efficient economy.