Analysts Ask What Will It Take to Guarantee North Korean Security?
http://enews.voanews.com/t?ctl=E48186:2F72C9DThere is widespread agreement that economic incentives alone will not
persuade Pyongyang to give up nuclear program Multinational talks
aimed at ending North Korea's nuclear weapons programs resume next
week in Beijing after a 13-month hiatus. There is widespread agreement
that economic incentives alone will not persuade the North to give up
its nuclear capabilities. Pyongyang has long demanded a security
guarantee from the United States in addition to compensation. VOA's
Kurt Achin takes a closer look at North Korea's security concerns -
and whether next week's negotiations are likely to ease them enough to
produce a deal.
U.S. historian Kathryn Weathersby says North Korea's obsession with
security can be traced back to a period of about 24 hours in 1950.
She says a few months after the North's invasion of South Korea in
1950, Pyongyang's ally, Soviet leader Joseph Stalin, was ready to let
North Korea be defeated. "Stalin sent an order to [then North Korean
leader] Kim Il Sung to evacuate the country. Withdraw all of his
forces out of North Korean territory. Give up North Korea. Let the
Americans take it," he said.
Ms. Weathersby, who studies Soviet archival documents at Washington
D.C.'s Woodrow Wilson Center, says that order was soon canceled,
because China had entered the Korean War. However, she says the sense
of fear and betrayal from the incident has influenced North Korean
policy up to the present day.
Now, in July 2005, North Korea says it fears what it calls hostility
by the United States - and insists it needs an arsenal of nuclear
weapons to counter it. Senior U.S. officials say Washington has no
intention of attacking North Korea.
Kim Jong Il (File photo)But major questions exist about how any
security guarantee for North Korea should be defined. Is it to be a
simple pledge not to invade? Or is it to be a guarantee of security
for the regime of Kim Jong Il - which could be interpreted far more
broadly?
International security analyst Chun Chae-sung, of Seoul National
University, says the distinction is crucial. "If the United States
says your system is secure as a nation or a state, but you have to
change your leadership style or even the Kim Jong Il regime itself,
then Kim Jong Il will not accept that," he said..
Experts say one problem with guaranteeing the security of North Korea
is that Pyongyang can list many perceived threats, including U.S.
conventional forces in South Korea - which have been in place since
North Korea invaded 55 years ago.
Another perceived threat to the Kim regime is U.S. opposition to North
Korea's abuse of human rights, believed to be among the worst in the
world.
In his second inaugural speech, President Bush set a goal of spreading
freedom and ending tyranny around the world, and he has since referred
to Kim Jong Il as a "tyrant."
Last month, the president invited North Korean defector Kang Chol Hwan
for a personal meeting at the White House, after reading Mr. Kang's
book about ten years spent in a North Korean labor camp.
U.S. Senators attending a Washington conference on North Korean human
rights called on the president to put human rights abuses "front and
center" at next week's nuclear talks in Beijing. The conference was
funded under the North Korean Human Rights Act, passed last year,
which calls for $20 million in additional U.S. funds to help North
Korean defectors who leave their country.
Professor Chun says Pyongyang may point to such human rights activism
as undermining any U.S. guarantee of security. "Human rights is
directly related to the legitimacy of the regime itself. It is not
about the nuclear problem," he said.
An advisor to South Korea's president said earlier this year that the
opportunity before President Bush is similar to the one President
Nixon seized when he established diplomatic relations with Communist
China - the chance to engage a leader with whom he has serious
differences in the hope of achieving a greater good.
It remains to be seen in next week's talks, however, how far
Washington is willing to go to make Pyongyang feel secure.