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A steady Saudi hand - for now
By Sami Moubayed

DAMASCUS - Perhaps the most excitable people following the death of King Fahd Ibin Abd al-Aziz of Saudi Arabia on Monday were the oil traders, spooked by possible unrest in the world's biggest oil exporter.

The price of crude oil jumped close to US$62 a barrel, even though Saudi officials were quick to say that the kingdom would stand by its long-standing policy aimed at pumping enough oil to satisfy markets and stabilize prices, as well as maintain a spare capacity cushion of 1.5 million to 2 million barrels per day (bpd).

Within Saudi Arabia, the cradle of Islam (home to Mecca and Medina), however, reaction was calm, with the late king's half brother, Crown Prince Abdullah, 82, quickly installed as the new monarch. Fahd's brother, Prince Sultan, the 81-year-old defense minister, became crown prince and next in line to the throne.

The smooth transition should have been expected. Fahd had been the country's absolute monarch since 1982, until he was debilitated by a stroke in 1995, which effectively resulted in Abdullah assuming power. [1]

However, with both the new king and the next in line in the twilight of their years, the issue of succession can be expected to become pertinent in the not too distant future, at which time Saudi Arabia can expect some turmoil.

Monday's transition shows, if only for the moment, that Arabs are indeed improving in their political conduct. The transition from Jordan's King Hussein to his son Abdullah in 1999, that of Syria's president Hafez Assad to his son Bashar in 2000, and that of Palestinian leader Yasser Arafat to his successor Mahmud Abbas in 2004 all show that Arabs have to some extent abandoned coups, revolts, and assassinations in their constant quest for political leadership.

The rise of Abdullah
Abdullah has been the subject of much speculation in the Arab world and abroad. Many consider him strong, an Arab nationalist and anti-Western. The last trait is in fact a little inflated by the Arab street and media. It stems from his refusal to permit the US to use Saudi territory for the war on Afghanistan in 2001 and Iraq in 2003.

But he did this not because he is anti-Western, but rather because he saw it as madness for Saudi Arabia to become entangled in such a mess, fearing for domestic security and the threat from the country's most infamous, and alienated son, Osama bin Laden.

Also, the targets in both Afghanistan (the Taliban) and Iraq (Saddam Hussein) were traditional enemies of Saudi Arabia. Allying Saudi Arabia with the Americans at this stage, and granting them a platform to launch war, would have enraged the many fanatics inside the kingdom.

They need little encouragement to further terrorize Saudi society: al-Qaeda's declared objective, in addition to going after American targets, is to bring down the House of Saud, which has traditionally been a US ally anyway. (Saudi Arabia is also a leading oil supplier to the US, which takes about 1.6 million bpd of Saudi crude out of total imports of about 10 million bpd.)

Abdullah's supporters argue that there is no contradiction between being pro-West and pro-Arab - it's a question of the economics of the time. Abdullah opened the contest for Saudi Arabia's gas riches in 1998, when he selected eight international firms to invest in a $25 billion opening of natural gas fields. But only one project worth up to $2 billion involving Royal Dutch/Shell and Total survived after a dispute over commercial terms. Saudi Arabia holds 236 trillion cubic feet of natural gas.

However, Saudi Arabia's upstream oil sector, home to 264 billion barrels of crude, has been off-limits to multinationals since the 1970s, and the new king is expected to keep it this way. "State oil company Saudi Aramco's expertise and piles of cash enable it to drill for oil under its own steam," Reuters quoted a Saudi official as saying.

Abdullah made headlines with a proposal for an all-Arab peace deal with Israel in 2002, echoing Fahd's 1981 plan, saying that Arabs should collectively normalize ties with Israel if Tel Aviv withdrew from all occupied Arab territory. The plan was turned down by Israeli Prime Minister Ariel Sharon.

Domestically, Abdullah has established himself as a reformer. He has taken steps to polish the royal family's image and publicly acknowledged that corruption is a problem. He has introduced limited social and political liberties, such as municipality elections and granting criminals the right to an attorney. Torture in prison was banned by Abdullah. He has worked relentlessly to combat the fundamentalist threat that has rocked Saudi Arabia since 2001.

Over 2,000 fanatic preachers have been removed from mosque pulpits. They were either jailed for their views, or re-educated. Excesses of the religious police force, known in Saudi Arabia as al-mutawa'a and hated for its ruthlessness and crudeness in the 1980s and early 1990s, have been greatly curtailed. The religious police are less visible on the streets and their treatment of citizens is more polite and less aggressive.

One to watch
Abdullah tried to soothe relations with the US after September 11 through the Saudi ambassador to Washington, Prince Bandar bin Sultan. Bandar, who is Abdullah's nephew, took up the job in 1983 and kept the post until stepping down, amid a lot of speculation, in July. The new Crown Prince Sultan is Bandar's father, and many speculated that he returned home to be in a position to jockey on Fahd's death.

Bandar has been at the Oval Office with many US presidents, as a friend, diplomat and advisor. After September 11 he toured the US, holding face-to-face meetings with US citizens to reduce criticism of Saudi Arabia, at the time known to angry Americans only as home to 15 of the 19 terrorists who attacked America. US media, public opinion and many statesmen blamed the Saudi monarchy for its religious indoctrination at schools, mosques and universities, and called for Abdullah to make immediate changes.

Bandar is a good friend of the Bush family, particularly the elder H W Bush, and is affectionately called "Bandar Bush". The former US president wrote to The New York Times about Prince Bandar: "To this day, Bandar is the only person besides the president of the United States that Bar [Barbara Bush] lets smoke [a cigar] in our house."

Stories had been circulating that Bandar and Abdullah hated each other and that Bandar's father (Sultan) had his eyes set on the throne and would use his armed forces to wrest it from Abdullah when Fahd died. This turned out to be nonsense, and Bandar is reportedly earmarked for a more senior job in domestic Saudi politics.

He is not very popular in Saudi Arabia, however, because of his extravagant lifestyle in the US, which alienates the conservatives, the fanatics and the emerging middle class.

The Saudi public remembers only too well that Bandar donated $1 million to Barbara Bush to combat illiteracy in America, and another $1 million to Nancy Reagan for the "Just Say No" anti-drug campaign. The Saudis, and Arabs in general, argue that Palestinians, Iraqis and other miserable Arabs are more worthy of such generosity. Yet despite his reputation, Bandar is definitely going to be one of the most powerful and influential people in the post-Fahd era.

The US view
Washington has made it clear, through different channels in recent years, that it does not welcome, although it cannot really oppose, Abdullah. It has often hinted that Fahd should be succeeded by a younger, modernized king who is pragmatic, pro-Western and less committed to Arab nationalism. The wounds from Abdullah's stance vis-a-vis the Americans in 2001 and 2003 are apparently not forgotten by the Bush White House.

Some in the US administration argue that appointing a young and popular king could undermine al-Qaeda's efforts to denigrate and destroy the image of the House of Saud. A people enjoying prosperity and a good king, these officials claim, would work with the monarchy, rather than against it, to combat terrorism and bin Laden.

But the opposite is true. A young, flamboyant king with little legitimacy and experience, and less commitment to either Islam or Arab nationalism, would enrage al-Qaeda even further and prompt it to increase its attacks on the House of Saud. Also, observers of Abdullah claim that throughout the 1980s he opposed Saudi Arabia's dependence on the US, and worked on strengthening its ties with regional players like Iran and Syria. This too, has been frowned on by America.

The relationship between Riyadh and Washington had been strong since it was created by Fahd's father, King Abd al-Aziz, and president Franklin Roosevelt during World War II. It reached new dimensions in 1979 when instability in Iran - the Islamic revolution - forced the Americans to reach for a new, rich ally in the Gulf once the Shah was driven out of power.

Both countries backed Saddam Hussein in his war against Iran in the 1980s, and likewise teamed up to eject him from Kuwait in 1991. A new relationship was created when, in August 1990, then secretary of state Dick Cheney and General Norman Schwarzkopf met with Fahd and secured permission to use his territory to launch their war on Saddam.

Abdullah was worried that once in, the Americans would find it difficult to leave Saudi Arabia. He called for an exit strategy, and when none came along he began to voice his displeasure at US policies in the Middle East and continued military presence in Saudi Arabia. Many conservatives in America, searching for reasons to criticize the Saudi monarchy, blasted Abdullah when, after the Palestinian uprising broke out in 2000, he allowed a charity organization run by his brother Nayef to compensate the families of Palestinian martyrs. To the Americans and Israelis, those dead men were terrorists. To Abdullah and Arab public opinion, they were heroes and defenders of a cause.

Down the line
Succession in Saudi Arabia is based on a hereditary line in the House of Saud. Power is handed down among the sons of the kingdom's founder, King Abd al-Aziz, who died in 1953. When Fahd became king in 1982, he relied heavily on his full brothers to rule by his side. They included Interior Minister Prince Nayef, Defense Minister Sultan and Prince Salman, the governor of Riyadh. Sultan, who remains in charge of the Defense Ministry as well as being crown prince, Prince Nayef and Prince Salman are part of the "Sudairi Seven" clan which gets its name from their mother.

Under terms of a 1994 law, when becoming king, Abdullah is able to designate his successor irrespective of seniority. He did not do that on August 1, despite speculation that he might appoint a royal of the third generation. Instead, he loyally appointed Sultan as crown prince.

All the previous Saudi kings began their reigns in their late 50s or early 60s. Fahd, for example, was 61. Now Abdullah is 82 and Sultan is 81. Sultan's brother, Prince Nayef, also head of the internal security forces, is 71. The grandsons of the founder, King Abd al-Aziz, whose rights to the throne were recognized in March 1992 by King Fahd himself, are mostly middle-aged.

In fact, many in the royal family who had their eyes set on the throne had kept Fahd alive since 1995 for one reason: they hoped that Abdullah would die before him.

Given the advanced age and medical conditions of the first generation of Saudi royals (Fahd, Abdullah, Sultan), it is likely that a king will die every two or three years as what remains of King Abd al-Aziz's children take their turn on the throne. As the crown is passed on, prosperity, stability and reforms will likely be slow. They will probably be too slow for the majority of Saudi youth, where 50% are under the age of 18. This generation, like that of other Arabs in the Arab world, wants reforms and modernization.

Ruling Saudi Arabia in the manner that has prevailed since the 1930s will be difficult for any monarch as the world advances into the 21st century. This is the real challenge that King Abdullah may not live long enough to face, but his successors will have to bring the country up with the times.

Note
[1] King Fahd was born in Riyadh in 1923, and was still a teenager when his father united the Arabian peninsula and ousted its former sovereign, King Hussein, the great-grandfather of Jordan's current King Abdullah, from the Arabian desert. King Abd al-Aziz al-Saud united the kingdom and created modern Saudi Arabia in 1932, naming it after himself.

Fahd studied at the Princess School in Riyadh, with a heavy emphasis on Islam, and in 1945 began his career by attending the founding conference of the United Nations in the US, with his brother, Prince Faisal (later king), then minister of foreign affairs.

In 1953 his father appointed him minister of education, at the age of 30. The same year he attended the coronation of Queen Elizabeth II in London. In 1962, he became minister of interior and in 1967 deputy prime minister.

On March 25, 1975, King Faisal was assassinated and another brother, King Khalid, assumed the throne. Fahd became the next in line, and when Khalid died on June 13, 1982, Fahd became the fifth king of Saudi Arabia.

Fahd's rule was marked with a degree of prosperity, modernity and stability, only shaken recently (since September 11) by al-Qaeda bombings and terrorist attacks inside Saudi Arabia.

Fahd wanted to go down in history as a grand builder - and he did. He had his name inscribed on great monuments, roads, buildings and bridges scattered all over the kingdom, which he transformed from a Bedouin society into a highly modernized and technically developed country.

Fahd's most memorable achievements in Arab affairs are the 1981 Fahd Plan and the 1989 Taif Accord in Saudi Arabia. The Fahd Plan was received with mixed emotions and particularly shunned by the Saudi clergy and intelligentsia because it recognized Israel's right to exist. It was supported at the time by Arafat because it ended the historic conflict and created a Palestinian state with a capital in Jerusalem, in addition to calling on Israel to withdraw from the Arab territories it had occupied in 1967.

The Taif Accord was held under Fahd's patronage, becoming the conference that ended the Lebanese civil war in 1990. Fahd was particularly involved in Lebanese affairs through his trusted friend Rafik Hariri, whom he supported wholeheartedly when the latter became prime minister of Lebanon in 1992 and who was a key political figure until his murder on February 14 this year.

Fahd's death surprised nobody. In recent years, reports had surfaced about his deteriorating health, preparing the Saudi street for the news. He was distant from political affairs, living on borrowed time since suffering a brain stroke in 1995 which left him confined to a wheelchair in a near-comatose state.

In fact, so sick was the Saudi king that he was unable to travel to Saudi Arabia from his treatment and summer vacation in Spain to attend a son's funeral in 1999.

Sami Moubayed is a Syrian political analyst.

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