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Snuffysmith
http://www.aljazeerah.info/4%20n/Al%20Qaid...m%20lands.htmAl Qaida's Zawahiri issues new warning to the US and UK to withdraw from Muslim lands

August 4, 2005


Al Qaida issues new warning to Britain

Gulf News, Agencies

August 4, 2005

Al Jazeera TV on Thursday aired a video by Osama Bin Laden’s deputy warning Britons that Tony Blair’s policies will bring more destruction to London.

"Blair's policies will bring more destruction to Britons after the London explosions," warned Ayman Al Zawahri, Al Qaida’s second in command on the tape.

His warnings came as thousands of police mounted a huge operation to protect London, four weeks after suicide bombers killed at least 52 people in the city.

Zawahiri also warned the Americans of attacks worse than the war in Vietnam.

"The Americans... will see horror that would make them forget the horror they saw in Vietnam," he said.

The United States believes Zawahiri, who has a 25-million-dollar bounty on his head, is the main strategist and key ideologist in the Al Qaida hierarchy.

Zawahri says British policy to bring more destruction

Khaleej Times, 4 August 2005

DUBAI - Al Qaeda’s second in command Ayman Al Zawahri warned Britons in a video aired on Thursday that Prime Minister Tony Blair’s policies will bring more destruction to London.

He also warned the United States that Al Qaeda will continue to launch deadly attacks until US troops quit all Muslim countries.

“Blair’s policies brought you destruction in central London and will bring you more destruction…” Zawahri, Osama bin Laden’s deputy, said in a tape aired by Al Jazeera television.

“What you have seen in New York, Washington and Afghanistan, are only the initial losses and if you (United States) continue the same hostile policies you will see what will make you forget those horrors,” he said in reference to the Sept. 11 attacks.

He said bin Laden had offered a truce to Western countries asking them to pull out their armies from Iraq and Afghanistan in order to live in peace.

“To the people of the crusader coalition ... our blessed Shaikh Osama has offered you a truce so that you leave Muslim land. As he said you will not dream of security until we live it as a reality in Palestine and until all your infidel armies leave Prophet Mohammad’s lands,” he said.

“Our message to you is clear, strong and final: There will be no salvation until you withdraw from our land, stop stealing our oil and resources and end support for infidel rulers,” Zawahri added.
Kjustme061
Makes you wonder EXACTLY what it is we're not being told....
Snuffysmith
http://www.bangkokpost.com/News/06Aug2005_news25.php

ANALYSIS / WAR ON TERRORISM

Al-Qaeda on the run? Not quite ANALYSIS / WAR ON TERRORISM

Terrorist raids in Pakistan's tribal areas belie President Musharraf's claim that al-Qaeda are almost finished

By DAVID ROHDE AND SOMINI SENGUPTA

Islamabad _ President Pervez Musharraf has declared that his forces have smashed sanctuaries of al-Qaeda and have its last remnants ``on the run'' in his country's remote tribal reaches.

``They are in penny pockets in the mountains,'' he said in an interview on July 29 in his official military office. ``We have severed their vertical and horizontal communication lines.''

Yet with less than two months before parliamentary elections in Afghanistan, al-Qaeda, the Taliban and their assorted allies appear to be regrouping in the rugged tribal redoubts in this country's northwest and unleashing ever more frequent attacks on both sides of the border, Afghan and Pakistani officials say.

Attacks in Afghanistan's south and east have grown in number, ruthlessness and sophistication.

Meanwhile, Pakistan's tribal areas, particularly North and South Waziristan, have been engulfed in fresh violence: In the last two months, Pakistani government installations have increasingly come under fire, and tribal leaders seen to be colluding with the authorities have become ripe assassination targets.

US intelligence officials have repeatedly said that Osama bin Laden is likely to be holed up in the Hindu Kush mountains along the frontier. Lately, Afghan and Pakistani officials have traded barbs about who is harbouring whom, and who has failed to find them.

In Afghanistan, aides to President Hamid Karzai have grown increasingly vocal about what they call Pakistan's accommodation of pro-Taliban forces.

The Afghan government had believed that Pakistan was cooperating in stemming the Taliban insurgency after presidential elections passed peacefully last October, said Javed Ludin, chief of staff to Mr Karzai. But recent attacks, he charged, showed the opposite.

``We were mistaken, and in fact they were preparing,'' Mr Ludin said of the Taliban.

Gen Musharraf's strategy against militants hiding in Pakistan's lawless mountains, as well as its urban swamps, has once more come under sharp scrutiny.

Investigators looking into the July 7 London bombings are still trying to determine what two of the four bombers did, and whom they met, when they arrived in the Pakistani port city of Karachi last winter.

At the same time, though American officials are unbowed in their public support of the general, the increased attacks on Pakistani, Afghan and American forces along the border have raised fresh questions about his ability to neutralise militant groups operating there.

In the interview and at an earlier news conference for foreign journalists last Friday, Gen Musharraf made it clear that he had chosen to act cautiously against militancy for fear of inciting a popular uprising against his government.

``I don't bluff, but I do act with realism,'' he said at the news conference. ``There are a lot of grey areas. Those grey areas have to be addressed with a lot of prudence and a lot of understanding.''

Critics question the intentions and effectiveness of his 3-1/2-year-old counter-insurgency strategy.

Some wonder whether the general's foot soldiers, namely in the army and intelligence services, fully buy into his American-backed agenda, particularly as American policy on everything from Iraq to Israel to Guantanamo Bay feeds anti-American fire in this country. Gen Musharraf, as a result, finds himself having to tread carefully to not be seen as an American stooge.

Others point out that Gen Musharraf's drive to quash militancy comes in the face of a quarter-century-long practice of using many of those same Islamic guerrillas as part of Pakistani foreign policy.

Gen Musharraf himself acknowledged on Friday that Pakistani soldiers and intelligence agents trained, armed and dispatched up to 30,000 Mujahedeen fighters, Pakistanis and foreigners, to topple the Soviets in Afghanistan in the 1980s. The tribal areas were the birthplace of that movement, which at the time had the support of the United States.

In his nation's defence, Gen Musharraf also angrily points out that Pakistan, for the first time, has dispatched troops to the lawless, semi-autonomous tribal areas in an attempt to flush out Taliban and al-Qaeda fighters. Today, nearly 75,000 are said to patrol the border, and 250 have been killed.

The resurgent Taliban, the Pakistanis insist, are blossoming inside Afghanistan. Whatever the case, violence on Pakistan's side of the border has taken a vicious turn upward.

In recent weeks, at least one intelligence official and two tribal leaders known for helping government authorities against militants operating in their areas have been killed. Ten days ago, in a series of coordinated attacks, 40 rockets were fired in the direction of army and paramilitary posts across North Waziristan. On Thursday, five Pakistani soldiers were killed in a land mine blast in North Waziristan.

Asad Munir, the Peshawar-based secretary to the governor responsible for the tribal regions, said last week that he suspected fighters loyal to the Taliban, al-Qaeda and the renegade Afghan Mujahedeen leader Gulbuddin Hekmatyar.

Mr Munir said he believed the attacks were most likely being directed by commanders operating on both sides of the border. North Waziristan alone, he said, sheltered roughly 150 such commanders.

``The chilling effect is basically your informers, your sources dry up,'' he said. ``Locally, people would be reluctant to meet an army officer or someone from intelligence agencies out of sheer fear.''

In a telephone interview last week from an unnamed location in South Waziristan, a militant commander who refused to be identified for fear of undermining his group's operations, boasted that his fighters were indeed crossing into Afghanistan, using routes beyond the two Waziristans.

``There are countless tracks and routes,'' he said. ``We are better organised and better skilled to fight an enemy that is high-tech and sophisticated. To fight a snake you have to come down to the level of a snake.''

The current setbacks come after years of warnings that senior al-Qaeda leaders, including possibly bin Laden, are using the tribal areas as a safe haven.

In 2002, a senior Pakistani official described South Waziristan as the hub of al-Qaeda operations worldwide. In 2004, Pakistani investigators said a Pakistani computer engineer confessed to receiving messages by courier from al-Qaeda leaders hiding in South Waziristan, and relaying them to operatives via the Internet.

After a military offensive in South Waziristan in 2004, Pakistani officials boasted that they had cleaned up the area.

A year later, even Pakistan's staunchest backers say they are no longer sure of Pakistan's control over South Waziristan. There are also new questions about whether militant operations are now being guided from inside North Waziristan. Several infiltrations into Afghanistan have originated from around Miram Shah there.

US forces, who roam inside Afghanistan, are prohibited from operating on the ground on the Pakistani side of the border. Still, Pakistani officials said this month that24 suspected fighters killed by American forces were found on the Pakistani side of the border; whether American troops chased them in ``hot pursuit'' remains unclear.

In the southern Afghan province of Zabul, a former Taliban field commander who identified himself as Mullah Said Mir said Wednesday that he was among a group of fighters who crossed back and forth from the Pakistani city of Quetta.

At a militant training camp in Quetta, he said, he had witnessed, as recently as a month ago, Taliban fighters training young Afghans with remote control bombs.
Snuffysmith
http://www.cnsnews.com/news/viewstory.asp?...R20050805c.html


Gaza Could Become Al Qaeda Safe Haven After Israeli Pullout
By Julie Stahl
CNSNews.com Jerusalem Bureau Chief
August 05, 2005

Jerusalem (CNSNews.com) - The Gaza Strip could become a new "safe haven" for al Qaeda operatives following Israel's scheduled pullout from the Gaza Strip later this month, a former Israeli army intelligence chief said here on Friday.

Al Qaeda announced on one of its official websites this week that it had established a military wing in the Gaza Strip.

The Islamic website, considered a mouthpiece for Abu Musab al Zarkawi, said that the "Jihad Brigades in the Promised Land" had already carried out mortar and rocket attacks from the Palestinian refugee camp of Khan Younis aimed at the Jewish Gaza Strip settlements of Neveh Dekalim and Ganei Tal.

The website showed a video clip of terrorists launching rockets.

"The Brigades are not a new organization but merely a spirit of faith pushing the jihad fighters in the Promised Land to close ranks behind an honest and uncompromising leadership," the declaration said.

The Israeli army was quoted by the daily Ha'aretz as saying that it was skeptical of the reliability of the posting.

But reserve Maj.-General Jacob Amidror, former Israeli army intelligence chief, said it is not surprising that al Qaeda would claim to have set up a cell in the Gaza Strip because of what he called "historical relations" between al Qaeda and Hamas.

Hamas, which is on the State Department's list of terrorist organizations, recently won big in Palestinian municipal elections and is considered to be strong in the Gaza Strip.

Responsible for many deadly suicide terror attacks in Israel during the past decade, Hamas leaders have said they will celebrate Israel's withdrawal of troops and uprooting of 21 Jewish communities in the Gaza Strip as a victory for terrorism.

Both are extremist organizations, with a slightly different focus: Hamas is warring against Israel as a first step, and al Qaeda wants to get rid of what it considers corrupt Muslim regimes, but both have the dream of establishing an Islamic ruling system around the world, said Amidror.

Al Qaeda could take advantage of the Gaza Strip as a new "safe haven" in the Middle East, said Amidror.

"Ironically, it will be the only place where nobody will initiate action against them. They will be under the umbrella of the Palestinian Authority. Israel will not feel free to act inside Gaza, and the U.S. for sure won't act," he said.

P.A. Prime Minister Mahmoud Abbas has already said he would not take military action against armed groups, he added.

According to Amidror, the only way to prevent al Qaeda from establishing a base in the Gaza Strip would be for America and Egypt to prevent al Qaeda members from entering the Gaza Strip and at the same time apply pressure on the Palestinians to crack down on terrorist groups.

"Al Qaeda is always looking for a stronghold in Gaza or other places," said Yoram Schweitzer, from the Jaffee Center for Strategic Studies in Tel Aviv.

There have already been instances where al-Qaeda operatives have reportedly visited Israel, he said. But Schweitzer said he did not believe that al Qaeda would be successful in establishing a base here, although they would not abandon that dream.

The relationship between Hamas and al Qaeda is not that good, said Schweitzer, and Hamas does not look up to al Qaeda.

Following the Israeli withdrawal, he said, he believes that Gaza would remain "relatively quiet" because the Palestinians will want to maintain a calm life there.

Then again, this is the Middle East, Schweitzer said, where things are unpredictable.
Snuffysmith
http://news.bbc.co.uk/2/hi/middle_east/4746157.stm


Text of al-Zawahri statement

Here is the text of a video taped statement by Osama Bin Laden's lieutenant Ayman al-Zawahri, broadcast by al-Jazeera television on 4 August 2005.
As for the British, I tell them that [UK Prime Minister Tony] Blair has brought you destruction in central London, and God willing, will bring more destruction.



O nations of the crusade alliance, we proposed that you at least stop your aggression against the Muslims. The lion of Islam, mujaheed sheikh Osama Bin Laden, may God preserve him, offered you a truce to leave the house of Islam.

Has sheikh Osama Bin Laden not informed you that you will not dream of security until we live it in reality in Palestine and before all infidel armies leave the land of Muhammad, may peace be upon him?

Your salvation will only come in your withdrawal from our land

Ayman al-Zawahri
You, however, shed rivers of blood in our land so we exploded volcanoes of anger in your land.

Our message to you is crystal clear: Your salvation will only come in your withdrawal from our land, in stopping the robbing of our oil and resources, and in stopping your support for the corrupt and corrupting leaders.

What you have you seen, O Americans, in New York and Washington and the losses you are having in Afghanistan and Iraq, in spite of all the media blackout, are only the losses of the initial clashes.

'Worse than Vietnam'

If you continue the same policy of aggression against Muslims, God willing, you will see horror that will make you forget what you saw in Vietnam.

The truth which [US President George W] Bush, [US Secretary of State Condoleezza] Rice and [US Defense Secretary Donald] Rumsfeld hide from you is that the only way out from Iraq is immediate withdrawal, and any delay in this decision will only mean more deaths and more losses.

If you don't leave today, then you shall inevitably leave tomorrow but after scores of thousands of fatalities and double that number of disabled and wounded people.

They are repeating with regard to Iraq the same claims and lies they uttered about Vietnam.

Did they not tell you that they would train the Vietnamese people so that they would run their own affairs themselves, and that they were defending freedom in Vietnam?


BBC Monitoring selects and translates news from radio, television, press, news agencies and the Internet from 150 countries in more than 70 languages. It is based in Caversham, UK, and has several bureaus abroad.
Snuffysmith
Al-Qaida warns of more London destruction

Mark Oliver
Thursday August 4, 2005


Ayman al-Zawahri, al-Qaida's second-in-command, speaks in a video aired by al-Jazeera in which he warned Britons that Tony Blair's policies will bring more destruction to London.Photograph: al-Jazeera/Reuters


Osama bin Laden's deputy blamed Tony Blair's foreign policy for the London bomb attacks in a video broadcast today and warned of "more destruction" to come.
Al-Qaida's No 2, Ayman al-Zawahiri, said the suicide bombings in London on July 7, described as "volcanoes of wrath", had followed the UK's rejection of an offer of a "truce" from al-Qaida conditional on withdrawing troops from Iraq.

In a message broadcast this afternoon on the Qatar-based al-Jazeera television station, Zawahiri said: "Blair's policies will bring more destruction to Britons after the London explosions, God willing."

Ayman al-Zawahri, al-Qaida's second-in-command, speaks in a video aired by al-Jazeera in which he warned Britons that Tony Blair's policies will bring more destruction to London.Photograph: al-Jazeera/Reuters


Osama bin Laden's deputy blamed Tony Blair's foreign policy for the London bomb attacks in a video broadcast today and warned of "more destruction" to come.
Al-Qaida's No 2, Ayman al-Zawahiri, said the suicide bombings in London on July 7, described as "volcanoes of wrath", had followed the UK's rejection of an offer of a "truce" from al-Qaida conditional on withdrawing troops from Iraq.

In a message broadcast this afternoon on the Qatar-based al-Jazeera television station, Zawahiri said: "Blair's policies will bring more destruction to Britons after the London explosions, God willing."

Downing Street refused to make any immediate comment on the tape, which is the first message from al-Qaida's inner circle to directly mention last month's suicide bombings in which 52 people were murdered.
Tonight the US president, George Bush, said he would not be deterred by threats from Zawahiri, who warned that the US faced worse casualties in Iraq than in Vietnam.

In the immediate aftermath of the attacks, the prime minister denied the Iraq war was a factor. He said later, after the foreign policy thinktank Chatham House linked Iraq with the attacks, that the war was "an excuse", but argued that terrorists with an "evil ideology" would always find grievances to justify attacks.

Today Zawahiri said that al-Qaida's message was clear: "You will not be safe until you withdraw from our land, stop stealing our oil and wealth and stop supporting the corrupt rulers."

Egyptian-born Zawahiri did not claim responsibility for the London attacks but rather put the al-Qaida stamp of approval on them, which has increasingly become the new dynamic as the terror organisation, deprived of its training camps in Afghanistan, changes in nature.

Analysts have said it is unlikely that the London bombings were directly organised by the al-Qaida leadership in a way that the September 11 attacks were. It is thought that they were more likely to have been inspired by al-Qaida, in a similar way to last year's Madrid bombings, which claimed 191 lives.

The July 7 attacks were carried out by four suicide bombers, three of whom lived in West Yorkshire. However there has been speculation that they could have been orchestrated by a "mastermind" who travelled to the country, recruited Britons and gave them training and help with explosives and fled before the attacks were carried out.

Experts said it was probably no coincidence that the Zawahiri tape emerged on a Thursday, exactly four weeks on from the Thursday July 7 attacks and two weeks after the failed bomb attacks on Thursday July 21.

As the tape was broadcast, around 6,000 police were out in force in a major London security operation today. [Read more here]

Scotland Yard has warned of more attacks, although there is no specific intelligence anticipating an attack today and senior officers have said there is no hard evidence that a "third cell" that is still at large.

The Zawahiri tape is sure to be scrutinised by British anti-terror officers. In it, Zawahiri refers to an audio tape broadcast by the al-Arabiya television station last April in which a speaker purported to be Bin Laden offered a ceasefire to nations deciding not to "interfere" in Muslim countries. The offer was not extended to the US.

In today's tape, Zawahiri says: "As to the nations of the crusader alliance, we have offered you a truce if you leave the land of Islam. Hasn't Sheik Osama bin Laden told you that you will not dream of security before there is security in Palestine and before all the infidel armies withdraw from the land of Mohammed? Instead, you spilled blood like rivers in our countries, and we exploded the volcanoes of wrath in your countries."

Zawahiri also warned the US that "tens of thousands" of its military personnel would die if they did not immediately withdraw from Iraq and that continuation of US aggression against Muslims would make "you forget the horrible things in Vietnam and Afghanistan".

The footage showed Zawahiri wearing white robes, with an AK47 assault rifle by his side. Behind him was a muddy brown sackcloth of a kind often used in al-Qaida tapes to hide geographical features that could provide clues to where they were filmed.

Livingstone calls for Iraq pullout

Zawahiri's comments are sure to rekindle debate about how involvement in Iraq has endangered the UK. In today's Guardian newspaper, the mayor of London, Ken Livingstone, argued that British troops should be withdrawn from Iraq to help protect the city from more attacks, because the invasion was "not justified".

Zawahiri is a former eye doctor who merged his militant group with al-Qaida in Afghanistan in the late 90s. Like Bin Laden, he has a $25m bounty on his head and some experts regard him as the prime force behind al-Qaida's ideology.

He last appeared in a video aired by al-Jazeera in June, in which he called for an armed struggle to expel "crusader forces and Jews" from Muslim states and said that peaceful change was impossible.

The last videotape from Bin Laden emerged on October 29 last year ahead of the US elections on November 2. In it he threatened another attack like September 11 and said: "Bush is still deceiving you ... and therefore the reasons are still there to repeat what happened".

Some UK and US officials have expressed anxieties about the media broadcasting messages from al-Qaida. Bin Laden and Zawahiri are suspected to be hiding somewhere around the Afghanistan-Pakistan border are the subject of a manhunt on a huge scale that has so far proved fruitless.

Suspect has Italian court date set

In other developments today, an extradition hearing has been set for August 17 in Rome for Hussein Osman, one of the chief suspects in July 21 attacks, who was arrested in the Italian capital last week. [Read more here]

Ray Kelly, the New York police commissioner, is likely to have caused more consternation in Scotland Yard after disclosing new details about the July 7 investigation, a week after the Met appealed to international agencies to be discrete with shared information.

Mr Kelly said the bombs were probably detonated using mobile phones and the explosives included hair bleach. Scotland Yard refused to comment. [Read more here]
Snuffysmith
http://www.dailytimes.com.pk/default.asp?p..._4-8-2005_pg7_9


Islamabad, Riyadh, Kabul doing little against radicals

WASHINGTON: Pakistan, Saudi Arabia and Afghanistan remain key breeding grounds for radical Islam that fuel terrorism, a US forum tracking the pace of reforms after the September 11, 2001 attacks was told on Tuesday.

Despite constant public condemnations, Pakistan and Saudi Arabia have refused to take the fundamental step of illegitimising radical Islamic groups, experts told the hearing.

“In these countries there still is a climate that certainly makes it possible and doesn’t make it illegitimate to embrace this ideology,” said Dennis Ross, the US pointman on the Arab-Israeli peace process.

Ross was among experts who assessed the progress of reforms recommended by an independent commission that investigated the circumstances under which the 2001 attacks occurred, AFP reports.

President Pervez Musharraf tackles terrorism in an “episodic” and not “systematic” fashion, Ross told a forum organised by former commission members to boost domestic security.

He said Musharraf was also half-hearted in the pursuit of Osama bin Laden, posing a dilemma for the United States.

The commission had recommended that the United States support Islamabad in its struggle against extremists, including military aid and backing for better education, especially revamping Islamic seminaries.

Musharraf had the “intellectual firepower” and the “leadership capability” to rein in the madrassas, former assistant secretary of state Elizabeth Jones said. “That’s something he should exercise and we should be there with the funding to help him do that,” she said.

Saudi Arabia’s new King Abdullah has to urgently “address the sense of statelessness, the sense of wanting to act in extremist ways of a considerable minority of Saudis,” Jones said.

“Even today, we’re getting reports that the Saudis may be a source of significant terrorist financing, including financing of the insurgency in Iraq,” Ross said.

In Afghanistan, the experts warned that the scourge of narcotics and extremism together with an insurgency driven by the ousted hardline Islamic regime continued to pose a problem to the nation.

Khalid Hasan adds: Pakistan “has not been all that helpful, really, in helping us hunt for Osama Bin Laden,” according to the vice chairman of the 9/11 Commission, former congressman Lee Hamilton.

Hamilton said at a commission hearing televised by C-Span that President Pervez Musharraf was doing too little to capture Osama Bin Laden. Elizabeth Jones, who served as deputy chief at the US embassy in Islamabad at one time, said that the Pakistani leader faced the “most difficulty” in forcing Pakistan’s military intelligence agency to end its covert support for anti-American factions across the border in Afghanistan.

Former US ambassador Dennis Ross said Bin Laden continued to enjoy substantial support among many of Pakistan’s 150 million Muslims, a political reality that makes General Musharraf cautious in any effort to capture the man.
Snuffysmith
http://www.nytimes.com/2005/08/05/internat.../05taliban.html

Qaeda on the Run? Raids Seem to Belie Pakistani's Word


Scott Eells for The New York Times

An American soldier kept an eye on the terrain from a helicopter flying between bases near the Pakistani border in eastern Afghanistan Thursday.

"They are in penny pockets in the mountains," he said in an interview on Friday of last week in his official military office. "We have severed their vertical and horizontal communication lines."

Yet with less than two months before parliamentary elections in Afghanistan, Al Qaeda, the Taliban and their assorted allies appear to be regrouping in the rugged tribal redoubts in this country's northwest and unleashing ever more frequent attacks on both sides of the border, Afghan and Pakistani officials say.

Attacks in Afghanistan's south and east have grown in number, ruthlessness and sophistication. Meanwhile, Pakistan's tribal areas, particularly North and South Waziristan, have been engulfed in fresh violence: in the last two months, Pakistani government installations have increasingly come under fire, and tribal leaders seen to be colluding with the authorities have become ripe assassination targets.

United States intelligence officials have repeatedly said that Osama bin Laden is likely to be holed up in the Hindu Kush mountains along the frontier. Lately, Afghan and Pakistani officials have traded barbs about who is harboring whom, and who has failed to find them.

In Afghanistan, aides to President Hamid Karzai have grown increasingly vocal about what they call Pakistan's accommodation of pro-Taliban forces.

The Afghan government had believed that Pakistan was cooperating in stemming the Taliban insurgency after presidential elections passed peacefully last October, said Javed Ludin, chief of staff to President Karzai. But recent attacks, he charged, showed the opposite.

"We were mistaken, and in fact they were preparing," Mr. Ludin said of the Taliban.

General Musharraf's strategy against militants hiding in Pakistan's lawless mountains, as well as its urban swamps, has once more come under sharp scrutiny. Investigators looking into the July 7 London bombings are still trying to determine what two of the four bombers did, and whom they met, when they arrived in the Pakistani port city of Karachi last winter.

At the same time, though American officials are unbowed in their public support of the general, the increased attacks on Pakistani, Afghan and American forces along the border have raised fresh questions about his ability to neutralize militant groups operating there.

In the interview and at an earlier news conference for foreign journalists last Friday, General Musharraf made it clear that he had chosen to act cautiously against militancy for fear of inciting a popular uprising against his government.

"I don't bluff, but I do act with realism," he said at the news conference. "There are a lot of gray areas. Those gray areas have to be addressed with a lot of prudence and a lot of understanding."

Critics question the intentions and effectiveness of his three-and-a-half-year-old counterinsurgency strategy. Some wonder whether the general's foot soldiers, namely in the army and intelligence services, fully buy into his American-backed agenda, particularly as American policy on everything from Iraq to Israel to Guantánamo Bay feeds anti-American fire in this country. General Musharraf, as a result, finds himself having to tread carefully to not be seen as an American stooge.

Others point out that General Musharraf's drive to quash militancy comes in the face of a quarter-century-long practice of using many of those same Islamic guerrillas as part of Pakistani foreign policy.

General Musharraf himself acknowledged on Friday that Pakistani soldiers and intelligence agents trained, armed and dispatched up to 30,000 mujahedeen fighters, Pakistanis and foreigners, to topple the Soviets in Afghanistan in the 1980's. The tribal areas were the birthplace of that movement, which at the time had the support of the United States.

In his nation's defense, General Musharraf also angrily points out that Pakistan, for the first time, has dispatched troops to the lawless, semiautonomous tribal areas in an attempt to flush out Taliban and Al Qaeda fighters. Today, nearly 75,000 are said to patrol the border, and 250 have been killed.

The resurgent Taliban, the Pakistanis insist, are blossoming inside Afghanistan. Whatever the case, violence on Pakistan's side of the border has taken a vicious turn upward.

In recent weeks, at least one intelligence official and two tribal leaders known for helping government authorities against militants operating in their areas have been killed. Ten days ago, in a series of coordinated attacks, 40 rockets were fired in the direction of army and paramilitary posts across North Waziristan. On Thursday, five Pakistani soldiers were killed in a land mine blast in North Waziristan.

Asad Munir, the Peshawar-based secretary to the governor responsible for the tribal regions, said last week that he suspected fighters loyal to the Taliban, Al Qaeda and the renegade Afghan mujahedeen leader Gulbuddin Hekmatyar.

Mr. Munir said he believed the attacks were most likely being directed by commanders operating on both sides of the border. North Waziristan alone, he said, sheltered roughly 150 such commanders.

"The chilling effect is basically your informers, your sources dry up," he said. "Locally, people would be reluctant to meet an army officer or someone from intelligence agencies out of sheer fear."

In a telephone interview last week from an unnamed location in South Waziristan, a militant commander who refused to be identified for fear of undermining his group's operations boasted that his fighters were indeed crossing into Afghanistan, using routes beyond the two Waziristans.

"There are countless tracks and routes," he said. "We are better organized and better skilled to fight an enemy that is high-tech and sophisticated. To fight a snake you have to come down to the level of a snake."

The current setbacks come after years of warnings that senior Al Qaeda leaders, including possibly Mr. bin Laden, are using the tribal areas as a safe haven.

In 2002, a senior Pakistani official described South Waziristan as the hub of Al Qaeda operations worldwide. In 2004 Pakistani investigators said a Pakistani computer engineer confessed to receiving messages by courier from Al Qaeda leaders hiding in South Waziristan, and relaying them to operatives via the Internet.

After a military offensive in South Waziristan in 2004, Pakistani officials boasted that they had cleaned up the area. A year later, even Pakistan's staunchest backers say they are no longer sure of Pakistan's control over South Waziristan. There are also new questions about whether militant operations are now being guided from inside North Waziristan. Several infiltrations into Afghanistan have originated from around Miram Shah there.

United States forces, who roam inside Afghanistan, are prohibited from operating on the ground on the Pakistani side of the border. Still, Pakistani officials said this month that 24 suspected fighters killed by American forces were found on the Pakistani side of the border; whether American troops chased them in "hot pursuit" remains unclear.

In the southern Afghan province of Zabul, a former Taliban field commander who identified himself as Mullah Said Mir said Wednesday that he was among a group of fighters who crossed back and forth from the Pakistani city of Quetta.

At a militant training camp in Quetta, he said, he had witnessed, as recently as a month ago, Taliban fighters training young Afghans with remote control bombs.
Snuffysmith
http://www.nytimes.com/2005/08/02/national...ning.html?fta=y

State Department Issues Global Terror Caution

WASHINGTON (AP) -- Americans around the world remain under threat of attack from al-Qaida and groups associated with the network headed by Osama bin Laden, the State Department said Tuesday.

Current information suggests attacks are planned in Europe, Asia, Africa and the Middle East, the department said in a statement designed to heighten vigilance.

The bombings last month in London and in March 2004 in Madrid are a reminder that terrorists may strike at public transportation systems, the department said. And, it said, extremists also may select aviation and marine services as targets.

Turmoil in Iraq is likely to pose a potential trigger for violence against Americans, and elections scheduled for next month in Afghanistan may also spark anti-American action, the statement said.

In issuing the worldwide caution, the department said its purpose was to bring information on a continuing threat up to date. The last worldwide caution was issued in March.
Snuffysmith
http://dailytelegraph.news.com.au/story.js...storyid=3560665

Al Qaeda's Ayman al-Zawahri on the undated video that was broadcast today on pan-Arab satellite channel Al-Jazeera, with a Kalashnikov rifle propped up behind him.
Dubai

Al-qaeda warns of more attacks

By Heba Kandil

August 5, 2005

DUBAI: Al-Qaeda's second-in-command Ayman al-Zawahri has warned the US and Britain of more attacks, singling out London for the first time since suicide bombings on its transport system killed 52 people.


Zawahri, in the video aired by Al-Jazeera television today, said British Prime Minister Tony Blair's policies would bring more "destruction" to London, which was rocked by July 7 attacks on Underground trains and a bus.

Osama bin Laden's deputy also repeated previous threats against the US, saying it and other Western nations would not live in peace until they withdraw their troops from Iraq and other Muslim countries.


"Blair's policies brought you destruction in central London and will bring you more destruction," said Zawahri who stopped short of directly claiming responsibility for the London blasts.


At least two groups linked to al Qaeda have claimed responsibility for the London bombings.


"What you have seen in New York, Washington and Afghanistan, are only the initial losses," Zawahri said, referring to the September 11, 2001, attacks on the US for which al Qaeda claimed responsibility.


"Our message to you is clear, strong and final: There will be no salvation until you withdraw from our land, stop stealing our oil and resources and end support for infidel, corrupt [Arab] rulers," he added.


"If you continue the same hostile policies you will see something that will make you forget the horrors you have seen in Vietnam," he added.


US President George W Bush dismissed Zawahri's threats, saying the US would stand its ground in Iraq.


"The comments by the number two man of al Qaeda make it clear Iraq is a part of this war on terror, and we're at war," he told reporters at his Texas ranch.


"People like Zawahri have a ideology that is dark, dim, backwards."


Zawahri said the US was lying about its losses in Iraq as it had in Vietnam and called on Washington to immediately withdraw its troops.


"There is no way out for Washington except by immediate withdrawal. Any delay in this decision means more killing and losses. If you don't withdraw today you will inevitably withdraw tomorrow, but only after tens of thousands are killed and injured."


The tape appeared recent because the London bombings took place in July. Zawahri, wearing a black turban and a white robe, looked older than in previous tapes.


He said Western nations would not live in peace as long as they ignored a truce offer made by bin Laden in April last year.


"To the people of the crusader coalition ... our blessed Sheikh Osama has offered you a truce so that you leave Muslim land. As he said, you will not dream of security until we live it as a reality in Palestine and until all your infidel armies leave Prophet Mohammad's lands," he said.


Zawahri last appeared in a video aired by Al Jazeera in June in which he called for an armed struggle to expel "crusader forces and Jews" from Muslim states and said peaceful change was impossible.


Excerpts from the videotape released by al-Qaeda's No.2 Ayman al-Zawahri.


First excerpt:


As for the English people, I tell them that Blair has brought to you destruction in central London, and he will bring more of that, God willing. Nations of the crusader alliance, we asked that you get your hands off the Muslims, and we and the lion of Islam, the fighter Sheikh Osama bin Laden, God preserves him, offered you a truce to withdraw from the house of Islam.


Hasn't Sheikh Osama bin Laden told you that you will not dream of security before we live it as a reality in Palestine and before all the infidel armies withdraw from the land of Muhammad, peace upon him? But [instead] you spilled blood like rivers in our countries, so we exploded the volcanoes of wrath in your countries.


Our message is clear, obvious and decisive: There is no escape for you unless you withdraw from our land, unless you stop stealing our oil and wealth and stop supporting the corrupt spoiling rulers.




Second excerpt:
What you have seen in New York and Washington, you Americans, and the losses you see in Afghanistan and Iraq – despite all the media blackout – are merely the losses from the initial clashes. If you go on with the same policy of aggression against Muslims, you will see, God willing, what will make you forget the horrible things in Vietnam.




Third Excerpt:
The fact that [US President George W.] Bush, [US Secretary of State Condoleezza] Rice and [Defence Secretary Donald H.] Rumsfeld are hiding is that there is no exit from Iraq except in immediate withdrawal. Any delay in taking that decision means nothing but more dead, more losses. If you don't leave today, certainly you will leave tomorrow, but after tens of thousands of dead and double the number of disabled and wounded.


The same propaganda and lies that they circulated about Vietnam are being repeated today in Iraq. They were telling you that they would bring the Vietnamese to be in control over their own affairs and that they were defending freedom in Vietnam.

Reuters
Snuffysmith
http://news.bbc.co.uk/2/hi/uk_news/4747547.stm

Bush dismisses al-Qaeda warning

US President George W Bush has brushed aside demands from Osama Bin Laden's deputy that the US leave Iraq, saying the US would "complete the job" there.
Ayman al-Zawahri warned that there would be further violence unless the US and its allies withdrew from Iraq.

His comments were made in a videotape broadcast on the Arab satellite television network al-Jazeera.

Mr Bush dismissed Zawahri's ideology as "dark, dim and backwards" and said Iraqis wanted to live in freedom.

'Clash of ideologies'

"He's threatening. They have come up against a nation that will defend itself," he said.

"The Iraqis want to live in a free society. Zawahri doesn't want them to live in a free society. And that's the clash of ideologies: freedom versus tyranny," he added.

God willing, you will see the horror that will make you forget what you had seen in Vietnam

Ayman al-Zawahri


Text of al-Zawahri statement
Attackers 'may heed warning'

In the tape, Zawahri - dressed in a white tunic and black turban and posed next to a rifle - warned other nations to leave Muslim lands to avoid further violence.

He threatened an escalation in attacks, saying the losses in Afghanistan and Iraq were only those of "initial clashes".

"If you continue the same policy of aggression against Muslims, God willing, you will see the horror that will make you forget what you had seen in Vietnam," he said.

The al-Qaeda deputy also said that the foreign policy decisions of Prime Minister Tony Blair were directly responsible for the London attacks.

Excuse to attack

Mr Blair denies his policies provoked the 7 July bombs, which killed 56. His office has refused to comment on the latest al-Qaeda tape.

Mr Blair has said the Iraq war is merely an excuse for those who want to attack the UK.

In a scathing attack, US Defence Secretary Donald Rumsfeld also criticised those who, he said, were clinging to a discredited theory which viewed the London attacks as retaliation for war in Iraq.

He labelled the theory "nonsense".

Mr Blair has acknowledged Iraq is being used to recruit terrorists, but insisted the roots of extremism were much deeper.

Zawahri last appeared in a video in June, saying Muslims should not rely on peaceful protests but should also use violence. He also appeared in a video in February.

The Egyptian-born Zawahri is thought to be Bin Laden's deputy and to have been hiding in the rugged border areas of either Pakistan or Afghanistan.
Snuffysmith
http://www.atimes.com/atimes/Middle_East/GH06Ak01.html

It's all about Iraq
By Richard M Bennett

Ayman al-Zawahri, one of the most senior figures in al-Qaeda, has warned Britain and the US to expect more attacks unless they get their troops out of Iraq and all other Muslim countries.

He also warned that London will face new terrorist outrages because of Prime Minister Tony Blair's foreign policy decisions.

He added, "Blair has brought you destruction to the heart of London, and he will bring more destruction, God willing." These new threats were made in a videotape that was broadcast on al-Jazeera TV. This alarming statement also further establishes a link between the invasion of Iraq and the London bombings and is one that is becoming ever more obvious to the great majority of people, but not yet, it would seem, to the British prime minister.

Another attack within three weeks?
Even more significantly, this most recent statement must be seen in the context of previous events as Zawahri's words often appear to be used to trigger al-Qaeda cells around the world to stage attacks.

Some of these include:

On August 7, 1998 Islamic suicide bombers blew up the US embassies in Nairobi and Dar es Salaam, killing more than 220 people. This followed a statement by Zawahri the previous day.

On October 9, 2002 another Zawahri tape threatened more attacks on the US and its allies. Three days later, the Bali nightclub bombs killed more than 200 people, mostly Westerners.

On October 1, 2004 Zawahri called on Muslims worldwide to help in the Palestinian struggle. Six days later, al-Qaeda attacked three Egyptian tourist resorts in the Sinai, killing 34 people, about half of them Israelis.

On November 29, 2004, in a video statement Zawahri said that the US invasion of Baghdad was only the beginning of a Western occupation. Terrorists attacked the US consulate in Jeddah, Saudi Arabia on the morning of December 6, killing eight and wounding 15 others.

On June 17, Zawahri spoke again. On July 7 four bombs ripped through London's transport system, killing nearly 60, including the four suicide bombers.

On August 4, this senior al-Qaeda leader issued perhaps the most specific threat of an attack on Western interests. If the pattern is repeated, a major terrorist outrage will be carried out within the next three weeks. Britain is again considered to be one of the most likely targets.

Al-Qaeda confirms Iraq link
It would now be increasingly hard to argue that even if the war in Iraq is not the sole motivation for recent acts of terrorism, it must still be a major contributory factor behind the suicide bomb attacks in London.

This would appear to be a clear and understandable fact to most observers, but any such linkage is still being vigorously denied by Blair.

He was forced on to the defensive over the London bomb attacks for the first time on July 19, when a leaked threat assessment from the Joint Terrorist Analysis Center (JTAC) - an integral part of the British security service, MI5 - specifically warned less than a month before the July 7 attacks that "events in Iraq are continuing to act as motivation and a focus of a range of terrorist-related activity in the UK".

The report, leaked to The New York Times, also said "at present there is not a group with both the current intent and the capability to attack the UK", a flawed conclusion that only increased the pressure on the intelligence community to explain its failure to anticipate the possibility that the capital would be a prime terrorist target on the opening day of the Group of Eight summit in Gleneagles, Scotland.

Nor is the JTAC assessment alone in establishing a link between the bombing of London and Britain's involvement in Iraq.

Chatham House, previously known as The Royal Institute of International Affairs and an internationally respected foreign affairs think-tank, stated in a new report that the war in Iraq had boosted al-Qaeda.

The Chatham House report also highlighted the growing problems the security services have when it rather bluntly says that Britain's ability to carry out counter-terrorism measures had been hampered because the US was always in the driving seat in deciding policy.

US alliance puts UK at risk
It goes on to claim that Britain's security efforts have been severely hampered as "riding pillion with a powerful ally has proved costly in terms of British and US military lives, Iraqi lives, military expenditure and the damage caused to the counter-terrorism campaign".

The most politically sensitive finding, however, concludes there is "no doubt" the invasion of Iraq has "given a boost to the al-Qaeda network in propaganda, recruitment and fundraising", while providing an ideal targeting and training area for terrorists.

Blair has strenuously denied such a claim and senior ministers have responded to these arguments by saying that the attacks on New York and Washington on September 11 pre-dated the Iraq war and that the root causes of al-Qaeda terrorism were non-negotiable, such as the existence of the state of Israel.

The war in Iraq: Complete coverage
Critics have pointed out, however, that while the Iraq war is not necessarily the root cause of this new threat of home-grown terrorism, it may well have intensified the threat, as the JTAC assessment appears to conclude.

Interestingly, it emerged during the Hutton inquiry into the death of weapons expert David Kelly that the prime minister had been warned by the intelligence services that the planned invasion of Iraq could increase the terrorist threat to Britain. The leaked JTAC report was therefore simply the first official post-war confirmation of a probable link between the Iraq war and terrorist activity in Britain.

Just 10 days after the first wave of bombing, former Labour cabinet minister Clare Short insisted that she had no doubt the July 7 London bombings were linked to Iraq and Palestine. Interviewed on GMTV, Short said, "We are implicit in the slaughter of large numbers of civilians in Iraq and supporting a Middle East policy that for the Palestinians creates this sense of double standards - that feeds anger."

Growing political criticism of Blair
In a further damaging attack on the prime minister's position, John McDonnell, the Labour member of parliament for Hayes and Harlington and Chair of the Campaign Group of Labour MPs, said it was "intellectually unsustainable" to say the war in Iraq had not motivated the London bombers.

"For as long as Britain remains in occupation of Iraq, the terrorist recruiters will have the argument they seek to attract more susceptible young recruits to the bomb team. Britain must withdraw now," he said.

By July 19, a public opinion poll in The Guardian newspaper was able to report that two-thirds of Britons now believed that there was an identifiable link between Blair's decision to invade Iraq and the recent London bombings, despite the government claims to the contrary.

The poll found that that some 75% of voters believed that further attacks in Britain by suicide bombers were also inevitable.

But despite the mounting evidence that a link exists and that the the government is losing the battle to persuade people that terrorist attacks on the UK have not been made more likely by the invasion of Iraq, Blair has continued to lay the blame for the terrorist attacks simply on the "twisted teaching" of Islam and put the onus on Muslim leaders to defeat such an "evil".

The buck must stop with Blair
The British government is still in denial that the bombings have any connection with the invasion of Iraq or its involvement in the US-led "war on terrorism". The close alliance with the US and Britain's involvement in the invasions of Afghanistan and Iraq may not justify terrorism, but they are an added motivation.

Many Muslims would argue that the empty threat posed by Saddam Hussein's non-existent weapons of mass destruction provided little or no justification for the eventual invasion of Iraq and the deaths of tens of thousands of innocent Iraqi civilians.

It is often conveniently forgotten that al-Qaeda in its original form was an American creation. Trained, equipped and directed by the Central Intelligence Agency, Osama bin Laden's organization tortured and killed countless young Russian conscripts unlucky enough to have been posted to Afghanistan. Al-Qaeda was certainly not unwilling to also kill and maim large numbers of Afghan civilians in pursuit of America's regional interests.

Double standards in the 'war on terrorism'
Nor is al-Qaeda the only organization linked to terrorism to have a US paymaster. Even allowing for Indonesia, Zaire and countless tin-pot Latin American military dictatorships, one country in particular stands out. Pakistan and its despised secret service, the Inter-Services Intelligence have a long history of actively supporting so-called "freedom fighters".

What in fact the Pakistan authorities armed were the Taliban in Afghanistan and the Kashmiri Islamic fighters who are responsible for decades of terrorism inside Indian territory and the deaths of tens of thousands of civilians in the world's largest democracy.

Yet the government in Islamabad is treated as one of Washington's closest allies in the "war on terror".

Hypocrisy on this scale practiced by the supposed leader of the free world is not a pretty sight, nor is it the basis for a successful foreign policy. Britain by virtue of its uncritical and unwavering support for American actions risks becoming a major victim of an Islamic backlash.

While Iraq is a motivation for terrorism, it is certainly not the only cause.

The occupation of Arab lands; the aggressive acquisition of Arab oil; the plight of Palestinian refugees housed in squalid camps for some 55 years; Israel's bloody invasion of Lebanon and its later attempts to suppress the Palestinian intifada; the lack of a truly even-handed Western policy on the Middle East's fundamental problems; Afghanistan; Iraq and the threat to Iran all provide the driving force behind the upsurge of Islamic terrorism.

It is fair to suggest that terrorism, unless linked to a poplar political movement, has never succeeded in its stated aims in the long run. However, it is equally correct to say that the defeat of terrorism is only ensured by winning over the hearts and minds of the extremist's potential supporters and with a policy as free of blinkered unreality and hypocrisy as possible.

While there can never be an acceptable justification for acts of terrorism, there can be no escaping the fact of a link between the British government's actions in the Middle East and the reaction of Muslim extremism.

Following these new threats of an imminent large-scale strike by Islamic terrorists against British targets, further denial by Blair and his ministers of at least some responsibility for the deteriorating security situation will only make them appear ever more foolish and increasingly out of touch with both reality and the majority of the British people

Richard M Bennett is an intelligence and security analyst.

(Copyright 2005 Richard M Bennett)
Snuffysmith
http://www.news24.com/News24/World/Iraq/0,...1749280,00.html

Al-Qaeda threatens US
04/08/2005 15:24 - (SA)

Cairo - Al-Qaeda deputy leader Ayman al-Zawahri threatened more destruction in London, and warned that the United States would suffer tens of thousands of military dead if it did not withdraw its troops from Iraq immediately.

"Blair has brought to you destruction in central London, and he will bring more of that, God willing," al-Zawahri said in the tape, which was broadcast on the pan-Arab satellite channel Al-Jazeera. He was blaming Blair for the bombings on three London subway trains and a bus on July 7 that killed 56 people.

In London, Blair's Downing Street office declined to comment on the broadcast.

Wagging his finger at the audience, al-Zawahri spoke with a Kalashnikov rifle propped up against a plain background. He wore a white robe with a black turban.

Al-Zawahri is an Egyptian doctor and Islamic militant who merged his faction with that of al-Qaeda leader Osama bin Laden in Afghanistan in the late 1990s.

Turning to the United States, he warned that it could expect vastly greater casualties from its military campaigns in Iraq and Afghanistan.

"As for you, the Americans, what you have seen in New York and Washington, what losses that you see in Afghanistan and Iraq, despite the media blackout, is merely the losses of the initial clashes," he said.

"If you go on with the same policy of aggression against Muslims, you will see, with God's will, what will make you forget the horrible things in Vietnam and Afghanistan."

Referring to US President George W Bush, secretary of state Condoleezza Rice and defence secretary Donald Rumsfeld, al-Zawahri told Americans: "The truth that has been kept from you by Bush, Rice and Rumsfeld is that there is no way out of Iraq without immediate withdrawal, and any delay on this means only more dead, more losses. If you don't leave today, certainly you will leave tomorrow, and after tens of thousands of dead, and double that figure in disabled and wounded."

Referring to the Western nations who have contributed troops to the US-led multinational force in Iraq, al-Zawahri said: "As to the nations of the crusader alliance, we have offered you a truce if you leave the land of Islam.

"Hasn't Sheik Osama bin Laden told you that you will not dream of security before there is security in Palestine and before all the infidel armies withdraw from the land of Muhammed," al-Zawahri, added referring to the leader of the al-Qaeda network, bin Laden.

"Our message is clear: you will not be safe until you withdraw from our land, stop stealing our oil and wealth and stop supporting the corrupt rulers," al-Zawahri said.
Snuffysmith
Al Qaeda to West: It's about policies Christian Science Monitor
In a broadcast Thursday, Al Qaeda's Ayman al-Zawahiri blamed Tony Blair for the 7/7 attacks. By Dan Murphy | Staff writer of The Christian Science Monitor. BAGHDAD – With an AK-47 at his side, Ayman al-Zawahiri, Al Qaeda's No. 2, appeared in a videotape broadcast Thursday and claimed that the 7/7 bombings were payback for British participation in America's "policy of aggression against Muslims."
Bush Responds to Al Qaeda Tape, Saying US Fight Will Continue New York Times
New London Threat; Security Hiked CBS News
FOX News - Financial Times - Newsday - CBC Manitoba - all 679 related »
Snuffysmith
http://news.yahoo.com/news?tmpl=story&u=/a...ce_050805132243

US security reports say Al-Qaeda targeting US, suicide bombs favorite method
Fri Aug 5, 9:22 AM ET

WASHINGTON (AFP) - Confidential US government assessments issued after the July 7 bombings in London reportedly indicate that the United States is still in Al-Qaeda's crosshairs and that suicide bombings are the network's preferred method of attack.

Distributed among law enforcement officials by the Department of Homeland Security and the Federal Bureau of Investigation, one of the security bulletins said recent intelligence showed that Al-Qaeda "remains interested in striking the homeland to undermine US security and damage the US economy," The New York Times reported.

Another one dated July 20 said that while there was nothing to suggest the London bombings would lead to similar attacks in the US, "there has been consistent threat reporting for some time suggesting that terrorists may have an interest in targeting mass transit systems."

Another security bulletin warned that in addition to setting off bombs on trains and subways, Al-Qaeda might seek to derail trains or crash a truck carrying flammable material into trains.

There was also concern Al-Qaeda and other terrorist groups could again resort to airplanes as a method of attack by sending their operatives to flight training school -- as with some of the September 11 attackers -- or using "an increased number of operatives" in the aviation industry to evade airport security.

Another possible terrorist target mentioned in the security bulletins was high-rise apartment buildings that could be blown up using natural gas.

Nevertheless, intelligence officials said there was no evidence to suggest terrorist plans were under way for an attack on the United States.

"We have no specific credible information to indicate that an attack in the United States is imminent or that Al-Qaeda operatives are in the United States to conduct a homeland attack," one of the intelligence bulletins concluded.
Snuffysmith
http://news.yahoo.com/news?tmpl=story&u=/a...05185011Primary Navigation

Video shows Al-Qaeda appealing to fragmented cells: analysts
1 hour, 58 minutes ago

DUBAI (AFP) - The latest video by Al-Qaeda's number two Ayman al-Zawahiri shows

Osama bin Laden's terror network is now appealing to its fragmented cells in order to fulfill its global ambitions, analysts said.

The video message broadcast on Arabic satellite channel Al-Jazeera and shown around the world, was designed to take full advantage of July's bomb attacks on London's transport system and the Egyptian tourist resort of Sharm el-Sheikh, they said.

In it, Osama bin Laden's right-hand man warned that the United States and its top ally Britain risked the deaths of thousands if they did not pull out of

Iraq and other Muslim lands.

"Zawahiri's speech proves, once again, that Al-Qaeda has changed its strategy," said Abdel Bari Atwan, editor of London-based Arab newspaper Al-Quds Al-Arabi.

"It is no long a pyramid organization. It has been transformed into a shadowy mesh of tentacles that extend to more than 60 countries throughout the world," Atwan told AFP.

"His speech, which was political and did not contain religious references, came at a convenient time," he added.

"Zawahiri exploited the recent attacks in London and at the Egyptian seaside resort of Sharm el-Sheikh, as well as the recent US military losses in Iraq, to give orders to local groups operating on the ground," said Atwan, known for having interviewed bin Laden in the 1990s.

Atwan noted that the Egyptian-born Zawahiri had appeared on Al-Jazeera wearing a black turban in the style of

Afghanistan's former hardline Islamic Taliban regime.

"The turban was also formerly worn by Muslims in times of war.

"Al-Qaeda has considered itself at war since its call in 1998 for an alliance between all Islamist fundamentalists against 'Jews and Crusaders'," he said.

Yasser Sirri, director of the Islamic Observatory, a London-based organisation, said he is convinced of a link between Al-Qaeda and those responsible for the July 7 and July 21 attacks in London.

"If there is a link, it is more of an order (to attack) rather than any part in organising the attacks," said Sirri.

Al-Qaeda wanted to prove it can still mobilize supporters on the ground because the network no longer had the organizational capabilities that it had in prior to the September 11, 2001 attacks on the United States, he said.

In his videotaped message, Zawahiri warned the United States that it risked horrors worse than those of the Vietnam war if it persisted with its policies in Iraq and the Middle East.

Bin Laden's right-hand man also warned Britain of "more destruction after the explosions of London".

His statement came on the same day that thousands of police mounted a huge operation to protect London, exactly four weeks after suicide bombers killed 52 people in the British capital.

Zawahiri also took aim at Western allies, Egypt and Pakistan.

He accused the Egyptian security services of "defending US and Israeli interests" after bombs killed at least 67 people, including 16 foreigners, in Sharm el-Sheikh on July 23.

He slammed Pakistan President Pervez Musharraf as a "bribe-taker" and accused Palestinian leader Mahmud Abbas of being a "heathen who has sold out his religion and goes from failure to failure."

"Zawahiri, whose speech was deprived of the usual religious content, seems disappointed by the ulemas (Muslim scholars) and now addresses other social categories in its field of recruitment," said Radwan Al-Sayyed, professor of Islamic studies at Lebanese University
Snuffysmith
http://www.debka.com/article.php?aid=1065

Al Qaeda’s Appearance in Gaza is a Dangerous New Terrorist Manifestation

DEBKAfile Special Report

August 3, 2005, 1:43 AM (GMT+02:00)

Tuesday, August 2, Al Qaeda claimed the establishment of a Gaza branch called “Al Qaeda-Palestine, Jihad Brigades in the Border Land.” (This is an al Qaeda locution meaning warfront.) The announcement, accompanied by a video tape, appeared on Websites normally reserved for releases on major al Qaeda strikes, such as the Madrid, London and Saudi bombing attacks and Abu Musab al-Zarqawi’s operations in Iraq. It is therefore to be taken seriously. The statement came out three days after the DEBKAfile exclusive disclosure of al Qaeda’s purported theological grounds for attacking Israel, as expounded in its new monthly magazine, From the Tip of the Camel’s Hump.

Al Qaeda’s Palestinian gunmen performing on the tape claim the new organization is already in action and assume responsibility for firing rockets at the Israeli communities of Neve Dekalim and Gunei Tal in the Gaza Strip Saturday night, July 30.

Military tests revealed that Sinjal rockets, which are used by the Jihad Islami and are inferior even to the hit-or-miss Qassam missiles, were indeed fired at those two places. The gunmen who are heavily masked sounded very much like Gazan Palestinians.

Israeli intelligence experts on al Qaeda have three diverse theories to explain the new development.

1. This theory holds that the three most violent Palestinian groups, Hamas, Jihad Islami and the Fatah-al Aqsa Brigades, established a new umbrella organization to execute terrorist and shooting attacks against Israel’s withdrawal operation in two weeks while eluding the charge of flouting Abu Mazen’s orders. This theory does not fully explain al Qaeda’s introduction to the Gaza Strip.

2. Al Qaeda’s agents infiltrated the Gaza Strip through northern Sinai, the Palestinian arms smuggling gangs who work both sides of the Rafah border or Hizballah cells in Gaza, and set u p a new organization based on the Hamas and Jihad Islami.

3. The Palestinian Popular Committees which bring together the al Aqsa Brigades and other terrorist splinters has split into feuding elements, one of which may have joined up with al Qaeda, promised allegiance and collaboration and received funds. That money would have paid for the film and the two attacks.

Whichever mechanism was used, it is clear that the international Islamist organization has made its first public appearance as a terrorist force present in the Gaza Strip. In every country, this hostile penetration would have captured top headlines and the security authorities and government would have been challenged for explanations. However in Israel today, the government, defense officials are media are so deeply immersed in the task of rooting out every last civilian and soldier from the affected territory against all opposition, that they are incapable of reviewing that task in the light of the new invasion.
Snuffysmith
http://www.debka.com/article.php?aid=1066
Iraq’s Anbar Province Becomes al Qaeda’s Springboard against Middle East and Europe

From DEBKA-Net-Weekly July 15 Updated by DEBKAfile

August 3, 2005, 9:26 PM (GMT+02:00)

Thirty-eight US troops have died in Iraq in ten days.

Wednesday, August 3 was the worst. A Marine amphibious assault vehicle struck a roadside bomb outside Haditha, killing 14 members of Regimental Combat Team 2, 2nd Marine Division, 2nd Marine Expeditionary Force (Forward) and an interpreter. One Marine was injured. Two days earlier, 7 members of the same unit were killed in the same part of the Euphrates Valley, 140 miles northwest of Baghdad. The attack was claimed by the al Qaeda-linked Ansar al Sunna.

In this part of the sprawling Anbar Province of northwest Iraq – a territory about the size of Texas - US troops are fighting some of their bitterest battles to seal the route from Syria that feeds the Sunni insurgency and its close ally, al Qaeda’s Iraq wing under the command of Abu Musab al Zarqawi, with a steady supply of fighters, weapons and cash. In one counter-insurgency operation after another, US forces have beaten at the iron grip Zarqawi has clamped on the strategic Anbar province. But his jihadists have not been dislodged, fortified as they are by the logistical backing provided by Syria and the free egress the Assad regime allows foreign fighters crossing into Iraq.

This deadly showdown in the torrid Anbar desert is exacting a grim price in American military casualties.

On July 15, DEBKA-Net-Weekly 214 revealed for the first time Zarqawi’s claim to Anbar, which ranges from the environs of Baghdad to the Syrian, Jordanian and Saudi borders, as al Qaeda’s first solid territorial base since the loss of Afghanistan in 2001.

Since the Jordanian terrorist planted his following there, al Qaeda has sent suicide killers for strikes in London and Sharm el-Sheikh. Teams identified with the terror group are now turning up in Jordan, Syria, the Sinai Peninsula and, this week too, the Gaza Strip. Zarqawi’s overall thrust aims at engulfing additional territories in the Middle East and toppling regimes. The onset of this new al Qaeda offensive in Europe and the Middle East indicates that Zarqawi’s superiors in the organization have endorsed his ambitious master plan.

According to intelligence estimates, Zarqawi holds on to the area with a little more than 5,000 men, of whom roughly 1,000 are Saudi and Yemeni zealots, 300 Jordanian and an unknown number is Syrian, Moroccan and Palestinian. His firm grip on Anbar persuaded the al Qaeda hierarchy in Pakistan and Afghanistan that 1,000 seasoned fighters could be spared from other parts of Iraq and diverted to the new terror offensive outside. A new recruiting drive would meanwhile replenish the ranks in Iraq with fresh suicide fodder.

In a message to his superiors, revealed here for the first time, Zarqawi offered the estimate that after three years of joint combat, Iraqi insurgents ought to be able to conduct their guerrilla war against the Americans henceforth unaided. He said they were experienced enough to dispense with al Qaeda’s aid and instruction and charged with the main brunt of fighting US and government forces.

The terrorist organization could then focus on its two prime objectives:

1. Preserving the Iraqi wing of al Qaeda’s control of Anbar Province.

2. The province’s adaptation as a springboard and territorial base for launching attacks in other parts of the Middle East and Europe.



Bush declared Thursday: We won’t be deterred from our course in Iraq and we’ll finish our job there.” He was responding to the latest al Qaeda threat of imminent large scale strike against American and British targets.

August 4, 2005, 3:08 PM (GMT+02:00)


Bin Laden’s lieutenant Ayman Zawahiri appeared on a new videotape earlier Thursday, August 4, to warn the US of “horrors worse than Vietnam” and hold Blair responsible for further destruction in London.

Also Thursday, Jordan announced the arrest of 17 terrorists linked to Abu Musab al Zarqawi‘s al Qaeda network in Iraq and an affiliated Saudi group for plotting attacks on US personnel.

On July 16, DEBKA-Net-Weekly 214 revealed the plot's huge scale:

An ambitious attack in Jordan was foiled this week. It was to have been Zarqawi’s crowning venture. The scheme had four parts: One, to blow up the Iraqi-Jordanian oil pipeline from Kirkuk to Zarqa; two, to torch the hundreds of American and Jordan tanker trucks waiting outside Jordanian pumping stations including H4. The Jordanian-Iraqi border terminals were to have been attacked at the same time and the villages around the terminals and oil pipeline set on fire.

Four would have emanated from the first three: the cutoff of the main energy lifeline from Jordan to the US army in Iraq and Baghdad.

Jordanian intelligence got wind of the danger in time and aborted the multiple attacks.

DEBKA-Net-Weekly’s anti-terror sources reports that Zarqawi placed one of his lieutenants, Abu Abd al Raham al-Afghani in charge of this operation. His real name is believed to be Ismail Abu Awda. The man on the ground in Jordan was to have been Fahd Faiqi, a Saudi Arabian aged 26, who lives in Jordan and acts as Zarqawi’s main contact with Jordanian crime gangs.
Snuffysmith
Al-Qaida is now an idea, not an organisation :

Bin Laden may not be capable of organising terror attacks directly, but then he does not need to
http://www.guardian.co.uk/alqaida/story/0,...1542898,00.html

http://snipurl.com/gr48
Snuffysmith
http://www.debka.com/article.php?aid=1070

New surge in Al Qaeda’s internal electronic and human traffic

DEBKAfile Special Report

August 13, 2005, 12:51 PM (GMT+02:00)


DEBKAfile’s counter-terror sources register a volume and heightened sense of anticipation in al Qaeda’s internal communications, signals, publications and Websites - mostly in code - that recall its electronic traffic in the months leading up to the Sept. 11, 2001 attacks. The sense of a big anti-American event in the making for September-October is marked. Self-congratulatory accounts of the London and Sharm al Sheikh July bombings abound, along with extravagant claims of victories against American forces in Iraq.

For the first time since 2001, teams of new recruits are being shunted between countries, according to coded instructions passing around the internal sites.

Our sources interpret these instructions as indicating that al Qaeda was able to raise sufficient fresh operational strength in its recent recruitment drive to carry out strikes in several target arenas. According to the information reaching DEBKAfile, Abu Musab al Zarqawi, for instance, proposed rotating the veteran operatives in Iraq, there for more than six to eight months, in favor of fresh men.

This surge of activity, electronic and human, seems to signpost an al Qaeda offensive in the works, and will no doubt raise terror threat levels in US, European and Middle East cities in the coming weeks.

Reading the signs, an FBI terrorism task force in Los Angeles issued a warning Wednesday, Aug 10: “Al Qaeda leaders plan to employ various types of fuel trucks as vehicle-borne improvised explosive devices in an effort to cause mass casualties in the US prior to the 19th of September.” The attacks are planned specifically for New York, Chicago and Los Angeles, either simultaneously or spread out. The attackers are described in the FBI advisory as “members of small al Qaeda cells which are spread out through the US.”

This information is uncorroborated, said a Homeland Security Department spokesman, but continues to be evaluated by the intelligence community.

DEBKAfile also learns of a general threat to America to mark the anniversary of the 9/11 attacks.

In Turkey, an al Qaeda plot to pack Zodiac speedboats with explosives and ram five Israeli cruise ships with more than 4,000 tourists aboard when they were docked last weekend at the Mediterranean port of Alanya. Had they succeeded, the catastrophe would have been on the mega scale. The terror alert is still in force in parts of Turkey because out of two large suicide teams, only two terrorists have been caught with large quantities of explosives. Each of those teams is believed to number 5-8 suicide killers, and most are still at large.

There is also information about similar al Qaeda teams on the loose in London, Rome, Cairo, Damascus, Amman, Riyadh and Sinai, as well as Turkey - but nothing specific on American cities. The London transport bombings and the 2003 Madrid rail attacks have however taught security agencies to be prepared at all times for the unexpected.

In any event, the quality of intelligence regarded al Qaeda in the hands of anti-terror agencies in the West has clearly not improved much since 9/11. Therefore, internal electronic traffic must be treated as a serious guide to the Islamic organization’s intentions. Above all, its tone and volume must be carefully evaluated by experts, because much of its content is coded and inaccessible to outsiders.
Snuffysmith
Osama bin Laden Looks Like Heading for Iraq

DEBKAfile Exclusive Report

August 8, 2005, 11:52 PM (GMT+02:00)

Coded electronic signals bandied in recent days among al Qaeda Middle Eastern elements across secret Internet sites all carry the same message: the supreme leader, Osama bin Laden, has come out of hiding in Afghanistan and set out, or is about to set out, for Iraq. This is the sense gained from this correspondence by DEBKAfile’s exclusive counter-terror sources.

Some of the signals schedule his date of arrival as the second half of September when Ramadan is estimated to begin. His arrival in Iraq is planned to signal the launching of the biggest offensive his organization has ever launched against the US army. If these signals are a true representation of bin Laden’s plans and not a red herring, what is planned is a dramatic landmark battle in the global war on terror and the Iraqi conflict.

The signals cap a secret exchange of messages in recent weeks in which al Qaeda’s Iraq commander Abu Musab al –Zarqawi attempted to persuade bin Laden to leave Afghanistan and take command of the Ramadan offensive in Iraq. Zarqawi argued the importance of his transferring from Afghanistan to Iraq on two grounds: to boost al Qaeda’s standing as it embarks on an “offensive whose scale and importance rival the September 2001 operation.” and in the interests of his own personal safety.

Zarqawi stressed, according to our sources, that bin Laden will be safer in Iraq than in Afghanistan – an indication of Jordanian terrorist’s inflated self-confidence.

DEBKAfile and DEBKA-Net-Weekly’s experts have authenticated the messages as emanating from Zarqawi. Their secret contents have begun to leak out and set up a huge flap in al Qaeda networks, cells and affiliates in many countries and talk of “a new jihad to honor the leader.”

If bin Laden was indeed swayed by Zarqawi and aims to reach Iraq by mid-September, he has little time to lose and must already have set out on his winding secret journey, or be about to depart. One of his options would be the long way round through Pakistani and Iranian Baluchistan and across the border into Iraq.

But there is an alternative route from Pakistan which he might find easier. DEBKAfile’s counter-terror sources revealed last May that al Qaeda had established a new marine base in the remote Gawatar Bay, a Persian Gulf inlet down the middle of which runs the Pakistani-Iranian border. Al Qaeda operatives are known to be active on both shores – on the Pakistani side, they use as sanctuaries the Baluchi villages strung along the River Dasht which empties into the divided bay; on the Iranian side, the move around the Baluchi port of Chah-Bahar (Bandar Beheshti).

From both these places, al Qaeda has for months been running a sea corridor of smugglers’ vessels into the southern Iraqi port of Basra. There, they clandestinely drop arms and fighters and collect injured men on the return trip for treatment in Pakistan.

Al Qaeda’s marine traffic from Baluchistan was first revealed by DEBKA-Net-Weekly 211 on June 24.

To subscribe to DEBKA-Net-Weekly click HERE .

The al Qaeda leader may choose to enter Iraq by sea rather than take the long, overland route, in which case his people will have arrived at Gawatar Bay and making preparations for his journey. He would have reason to believe it is safer. Intelligence of al Qaeda’s Baluchi sea smugglers has reached the American and British naval forces operating in the northern reaches of the Persian Gulf, the Shatt al Arb, Basra and the southern Iraqi oil terminals. Yet neither has been able to put a stop to the traffic.

Bin Laden has proved himself an undercover escape artist par excellence. In the five years since he escaped the Bora Bora siege, he and his party, including his close tribe, have managed to flit from place to place undetected - even when his pursuers were close and watching out for him.

If he does indeed make it to Iraq, the public airing of his presence in the Land of the Two Rivers, would have a radical impact on the nature of the Iraq conflict. No longer a mere guerrilla campaign, it would escalate to a full-scale fight to the finish against al Qaeda in Iraq, analogous to the all-out hostilities in Afghanistan.

Bin Laden’s organization has begun referring to the Iraq conflict in these ultimate terms.
Snuffysmith
Al-Qaeda in Iraq launches anti-charter Internet campaign Sun Aug 14, 5:32 PM ET

DUBAI (AFP) - Al-Qaeda's Iraqi branch launched an Internet campaign threatening Iraqis with death if they take part in the October referendum to approve the country's constitution.

The online posters were released by the "department of information of the Al-Qaeda organisation in Mesopotamia" in what it said were measures to enforce God's laws and reject those of the "tyrant non-believer".

In one of the posters, the words constitution, democracy and elections appear on a road leading to "danger". Along the road lies an enormous cross, broken into pieces.

"Our constitution: the Koran," says one of the five posters. "O Muslims, boycott the elections," says another.

"Muslim brother, please know that the polling stations of the non-believers will be legitimate targets of the mujahedeen's attacks. Therefore, stay far away for your own safety," reads yet another.

The Internet campaign comes a day before Iraq's leaders are due to complete their draft charter of the country's first constitution since Saddam Hussein's ouster.
Snuffysmith
Sakra: I Dispatched Men to US and UK for Terrorist Activity :

Luai Sakra, a Syrian national, was captured as he was preparing for an attack to target Israeli cruse liners. Reports claim that Sakra had information about the al-Qaeda leader, Osama bin Laden, and the triple London attacks on July 7.
http://www.informationclearinghouse.info/article9781.htm

http://snipurl.com/gzs2
Snuffysmith
Kurt Nimmo: Turkish Intelligence: Al-Qaeda a U.S. Covert Operation:

It is curious how alleged key people in the al-CIA-duh network end up working for the CIA and other intelligence agencies.
http://www.informationclearinghouse.info/article9782.htm

http://snipurl.com/gzs3
Snuffysmith
A ‘Strange’ Al Qaeda Leader: “I Don’t Pray, I Drink Alcohol’ :

Luai Sakra, one of the 5 most important key figures in Al Qaeda, was captured last week by Turkish Police. Israel police was almost spoiling all operation, Turkish officials say.
http://www.informationclearinghouse.info/article9783.htm

http://snipurl.com/gzs4
Snuffysmith
Legal 'Creation' of Al-Qaeda:

Jamal al-Fadl was on the run from bin Laden, having stolen money from him. In return for his testimony, the United States gave him witness protection in America and hundereds of thousands of dollars.
http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Jamal_al-Fadl

http://snipurl.com/gzs5
Snuffysmith
Rural areas of Saudi Arabia prove fertile recruiting grounds for Al Qaida

ABU DHABI — Al Qaida operatives are recruiting young Saudis from rural areas of the kingdom, Saudi security sources said.
The recruitment takes place in schools, summer camps and mosques.

Many of Al Qaida's leading operatives were said to have been recruited from nomadic tribes in rural Saudi Arabia. Naif Al Shamary, No. 13 on the Interior Ministry's list of leading Al Qaida fugitives, is a Bedouin from Khafer Al Baaten, the headquarters of the Gulf Cooperation Council in central Saudi Arabia.

Al Shamary was reportedly indoctrinated by Al Qaida operatives working as high school teachers in Khafer Al Baaten. The sources said the teachers began to spread Al Qaida ideology and recruit high school students in the mid-1990s.

"Religious teachers coming from areas known for extremism began to teach in public schools, where they started forming student groups called 'scientific groups,' which would meet during non-school hours to avoid detection," the Jeddah-based Arab News reported on July 11.

"Members of the group would gather on a regular basis, and no one outside of the group would be welcome."

The newspaper, which quoted Saudi security sources, said the high school students were then sent to camps where they received further indoctrination and military training.

The training was required to ensure that Muslims would be strong. It included forcing campers to watch videos of Islamic fighters in such places as Afghanistan, Bosnia and Chechnya.

Al Qaida operatives pledged to provide large sums of money to families that sent their sons to training camps. The families were also told that their sons would be assisted in enrolling in Saudi universities.

Saudi security sources said most of the recruits never completed their education. Instead, they were sent to training in Afghanistan and later to Iraq after the U.S.-led war in 2003.

At least 5,000 Saudis were said to be in Iraq, most of them operatives for Al Qaida. Saudi authorities said they were concerned by the prospect that the battled-hardened fighters would return to the kingdom.

"We expect bad things from those who went to Iraq," Saudi Interior Minister Prince Nayef Bin Abdul Aziz said. "No doubt they would be worse than those who fought in Afghanistan, and we are ready for all of them and hope they would return to their senses."

Thousands of young Saudis fought the Soviet Union in Afghanistan during the 1980s. These Saudis have formed the nucleus of the Al Qaida global network.


--------------------------------------------------------------------------------


Egyptian town called base for Al Qaida attacks

CAIRO — Egypt has identified a Sinai town as the base for a series of Al Qaida attacks.
Egyptian security sources said Al Qaida operatives have used El Arish as a base for at least two major attacks against tourist sites in the Sinai Peninsula. El Arish served as the launching pad for strikes as well as a storehouse for explosives.

An Al Qaida cell that carried out three car bombings in Sharm e-Sheik on July 23 stored about a ton of high explosives in a farm in El Arish in northern Sinai, the sources said. The farm served as the base for the suspected 10-member cell, most of whose members were Bedouins.

"Police raided some of the hideouts and they found in a farm in El Arish about a ton of high explosives and are comparing it to the substances used in the three attacks," the official Egyptian Al Ahram daily reported Aug. 14.

On Aug. 15, a bomb exploded near a bus that contained members of the Multi-National Force in eastern Sinai near the Gaza Strip. Egyptian officials said two Canadian members of the MNF were injured in what authorities termed a terrorist attack.

No group claimed responsibility for the roadside bombing. Earlier an Al Qaida-aligned group warned against the continued presence of the 1,800 MNF peacekeepers in Sinai.

Al Ahram said two vehicles were believed to have transported the explosives from central Sinai to Sharm e-Sheik. Al Ahram said the network maintained bases housing weapons and explosives in El Arish and Qantara in the northern Sinai.

The information on the El Arish base came after the arrest of leading members of an Al Qaida cell that carried out the July bombings in which at least 64 people were killed. Three of the cell members were described as senior operatives, but were not identified.

"The ministry's agencies discovered the scope of the flagrant terrorist operation and were able to identify those who carried it out, and they already have primary suspects," the Interior Ministry said in a statement on Aug. 14. "All details will be announced in due time."

Egyptian security sources said El Arish has become a key way station for weapons smuggling from Sudan to the Gaza Strip. The town is regarded as having a strong element that supports the Muslim Brotherhood and the Palestinian Hamas organizations.

Al Ahram said one of the three detained senior operatives was employed on the El Arish farm. The farm is owned by a Palestinian who lived in the Sinai town, and the arrest of the employee led to the detention of the other two operatives. Three other members of the cell were killed in the Sharm bombings, Al Ahram said.

Security sources are investigating whether the El Arish farm also served as the base for the car bombings in the resort towns of Nuweiba and Taba in October 2004. Thirty-four people, most of them Egyptian nationals, were killed in the strikes, said to have been carried out by the same Islamic insurgency network that carried out the July bombings.



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Geostrategy-Direct, www.geostrategy-direct.com, August 23, 2005
Copyright © 2005 East West Services, Inc. All rights reserved.
Snuffysmith
New military government of Mauritania sides with pro-Al Qaida clerics

Two weeks ago, Mauritania was one of the best U.S. allies and a prospective base for the war against Al Qaida. Today, Mauritania has a military leadership that the U.S. intelligence community suspects is aligned with pro-Al Qaida Muslim clerics.
The new military regime in Nouakchott has made it clear that pro-Al Qaida clerics would be allies in Mauritania. In its first major act, the new government released 21 Islamic leaders imprisoned on terrorist offenses since April.

Intelligence sources said the clerics were supporters of the coup against ousted President Maaya Sid Ahmed Ould Taya and friendly with Al Qaida and its main subcontractor in the Middle East, the Salafist Brigade for Combat and Call. The clerics have been opposed to Taya's alliance with the United States in the war on terrorism.

For intelligence analysts, the release of the Islamic leaders soon after the Aug. 3 coup signified that the military regime would dampen or even end its participation in the U.S.-led war against Al Qaida. The Salafist Brigade has demonstrated its ability to strike targets in Mauritania, and the new regime has assessed that military cooperation with Washington would be unhealthy for political survival.

Another 50 Islamic leaders connected to previous military coups against Taya are still in jail. U.S. intelligence sources said they would be surprised if the regime does not release them as well over the next few weeks.



--------------------------------------------------------------------------------


Pakistan joins cruise missile club

Pakistan last week successfully test fired its first cruise missile as part of an effort to frustrate any Indian defense system. The Pakistani cruise missile, termed Babur, reportedly has a range of 500 kilometers and can carry a nuclear warhead.
Western intelligence sources said Pakistan's project marked a strategy to defeat U.S.-based missile defense systems by using cruise missiles. The Babur, as well as other advanced cruise missiles, was designed to fly under radar cover and strike any target.

What's worse is that intercepting a low-flying cruise missile carrying a weapons of mass destruction warhead would ensure payload detonation in the targeted country. Sources said that no missile defense system has yet been designed that could neutralize a nuclear-tipped cruise missile without an explosion and radiation fallout.

"It will clearly have India think twice about purchasing the PAC-3 system," an intelligence source said. "The PAC-3 would be useless against Babur."

But there's more. Several of Pakistan's major strategic weapons programs have been financed by Saudi Arabia, sources said. They question whether Pakistan would eventually transfer or deploy Babur missiles in the Arab kingdom to protect against a nuclear Iran.




--------------------------------------------------------------------------------


Geostrategy-Direct, www.geostrategy-direct.com, August 23, 2005
Copyright © 2005 East West Services, Inc. All rights reserved
Snuffysmith
http://www.philly.com/mld/mercurynews/news...ercurynews_iraq

Al-Qaida's No. 2 issues Iraq threat

ZAWAHIRI PROMISING FURTHER CASUALTIES IF FOREIGN TROOPS NOT REMOVED FROM REGION

By Steven R. Hurst

Associated Press


CAIRO, Egypt - Al-Qaida's No. 2 leader embraced the London suicide bombings Thursday, warned Britain that more destruction lies ahead and promised tens of thousands of U.S. casualties in Iraq.

Ayman al-Zawahiri also renewed terror threats to other countries with troops in Iraq and Afghanistan, claiming they had shunned Osama bin Laden's offer last year of a truce if foreign forces left the battleground.

In the tape, parts of which were broadcast by Al-Jazeera, Zawahiri made no direct claim that Al-Qaida carried out the July 7 attacks in the British capital, but sought instead to blame the carnage on Prime Minister Tony Blair's decision to deploy and keep troops in Iraq. Britain maintains 8,500 soldiers, mainly in southern Iraq.

``Blair has brought to you destruction in central London, and he will bring more of that, God willing,'' Zawahiri said.

President Bush dismissed Zawahiri's threat, saying, ``We will stay on the offense against these people. They're terrorists and they're killers and they will kill innocent people . . . so they can impose their dark vision on the world.''

In London, Blair's Downing Street office declined to comment.

Jeremy Bennie, a terrorism analyst for Jane's Defense Weekly, said Zawahiri appeared to be trying to put an Al-Qaida stamp on the July 7 attacks on the London transit system. The bombings killed 56 people, including four attackers.

``He has tacitly taken responsibility by claiming Al-Qaida is in control of the situation, even as most people aren't really sure bin Laden and Zawahiri still are capable of organizing such an attack,'' Bennie said by telephone.

Thursday marked the seventh time Zawahiri has used videotapes or audiotapes to speak for Al-Qaida since the Sept. 11 attacks in the United States. The latest appearance followed the Egyptian physician's pattern of issuing threats of further death and destruction if the United States and its allies in Iraq and Afghanistan refuse to withdraw troops from the region, including Saudi Arabia -- home to two of Islam's holiest shrines.

Zawahiri issued the fresh threats with an assault rifle propped against a woven cloth background that moved with the wind and showed the sunlight, suggesting the scene was filmed outdoors. He wore a white robe and black turban and emphatically wagged his finger while speaking.

The black turban -- a change from his white turban in past videos -- is ``a sign that it's time of war,'' said Montasser el-Zayat, an Egyptian attorney who defends Islamic radicals and who spent three years in prison with Zawahiri. The prophet Muhammad and his followers wore black turbans during their invasions in the Arabian Peninsula, he said.

Zawahiri is ``exploiting the whole atmosphere following London and Sharm al-Sheikh explosions to carry out the sort of instigation that propels more operations,'' el-Zayat said. At least 64 people were killed in the July 23 attacks in the Egyptian Red Sea resort of Sharm al-Sheikh.

As the Iraqi insurgency involving bin Laden's comrade Abu Musab al-Zarqawi continues to kill Iraqis and Americans, Zawahiri promised more savagery.

``What you have seen in New York and Washington, you Americans, and the losses you see in Afghanistan and Iraq -- despite all the media blackout -- are merely the losses from the initial clashes,'' he said.

``If you go on with the same policy of aggression against Muslims, you will see, God willing, what will make you forget the horrible things in Vietnam,'' he said.

``There is no exit from Iraq except in immediate withdrawal. Any delay in taking that decision means nothing but more dead, more losses,'' he said. ``If you don't leave today, certainly you will leave tomorrow, but after tens of thousands of dead and double the number of disabled and wounded.''

Zawahiri threatened other nations who have sent troops alongside U.S. forces in Iraq and Afghanistan, saying they ``will harvest the fruits of their cooperation soon, God willing.''

He also called for Arab military officials, intellectuals and business leaders to start working to get rid of ``corrupt'' regimes in the Middle East and ``start prepare for change, starting now, whatever it takes of time or effort.''

Bennie said Zawahiri may have been using the video as a vehicle for reissuing an offer of a truce.

``This seems to say you have another chance to pull out and you won't be hit again,'' the analyst said, declaring the statement coercive and not credible.

Taahir Hoorzook, of the media relations department in Al-Jazeera, said the broadcaster received the new tape Thursday at one of its offices, though he would not specify its location.

The tape is about five minutes long and Al-Jazeera aired only 10 percent of it, he said. The rest was rhetoric that ``we found not newsworthy,'' Hoorzook said.
Snuffysmith
http://timesofindia.indiatimes.com/articleshow/1205101.cms


Osama armed to make an 'American Hiroshima'
CHIDANAND RAJGHATTA

TIMES NEWS NETWORK[ FRIDAY, AUGUST 19, 2005 11:56:53 AM ]

WASHINGTON: Pakistani nuclear scientists led by prime smuggler and proliferator AQ Khan have armed Osama bin Laden and his al Qaeda with nuclear weapons in their efforts to bring about an ''American Hiroshima,'' according to a sensational new book.

The plan calls for the detonation of seven tactical nuclear devices in seven US cities at the same time. At least one of these weapons has been shipped to the US from Karachi in a cargo container, says Paul Williams, author of the book ‘Osama's Revenge’, accounts from which are now appearing on several websites and blogs.

News about Khan's involvement with al-Qaeda and the American Hiroshima plan first emerged with the capture of several al-Qaeda operatives in Afghanistan in October 2001, during the first phase of Operation Enduring Freedom, and, later, with the arrest of Khalid Sheikh Mohammad, bin Laden's military operations chief, in Karachi, according to Williams.

From Khalid Mohammad's laptop, CIA officials uncovered details of al-Qaeda's plan to create a series of ''nuclear hell storms'' throughout the United States. After days of ... ...interrogation coupled with severe sleep deprivation, he told US intelligence officials that the chain of command for the ''American Hiroshima'' answered directly to bin Laden, al-Zawahiri, and a Khan.

He also told officials about continuous visits by bin Laden and company to the AQ Khan Research Laboratories in Pakistan, where they gained the assistance of nuclear physicists like Dr Sultan Bashiruddin Mahmood, chairman of Pakistan's Atomic Energy Commission.

Mahmood, who was taken into custody by Pakistan's ISI and CIA agents on Oct 23, 2001. He later admitted that he had met with bin Laden, al-Zawahiri and other al-Qaida officials on several occasions, including the morning of Sept 11, 2001, to discuss the means of speeding up the process of manufacturing nukes from the highly enriched ... ...uranium that al-Qaida had obtained from the Islamic Movement of Uzbekistan and other sources, according to the book.

Mahmood insisted that he had provided answers to technical questions concerning tactical nuclear weapons but declined to provide bin Laden actual hands-on help for the creation of such devices. Upon voicing this denial, Mahmood was subjected to six lie-detector tests. He failed them all.

According to Williams, throughout 2002, CIA and ISI officials obtained more and more information concerning the involvement of scientists from the AQ Khan Research Laboratories in the plans for the American Hiroshima.

After being threatened with seven years in prison under Pakistan's Official Secrets Act, Dr. Chaudry Abdul Majid, PAEC's chief engineer, admitted that he met with bin Laden and other al-Qaida officials on a regular basis to provide technical assistance for the construction and care of its nuclear weapons.

Dr. Mirza Yusuf Baig, another PAEC engineer, made a similar confession. ''Yet a host of other leading scientists and technicians from Khan's facility...
... have managed to elude arrest and interrogation by quietly slipping out of the country.

Dr. Mohammad Ali Mukhtar and Dr. Suleiman Assad, nuclear engineers and close colleagues of Khan and Mahmood, escaped to Myanmar, where they are currently engaged in building a 10-megawatt nuclear reactor for the Third World country. Others have made off for unknown destinations,'' says an account published on the website WorldNetDaily.

Still, says Williams, the interrogations of the Pakistani scientists, coupled with findings from Dr. Mahmood's office for ''charitable affairs'' in Kabul, verified for the CIA that al-Qaida had produced several nuclear weapons from highly enriched uranium and plutonium pellets the size of silver dollars at Khan's facilities.

At least one of these weapons was transported to Karachi where it was shipped to the United States in a cargo container.
Snuffysmith
http://www.debka.com/article.php?aid=1075


Al Qaeda’s Triple Warning to Israel Ahead of Gaza Pullout

DEBKAfile Exclusive Report

August 21, 2005, 2:35 PM (GMT+02:00)


Jordanian soldier at Katyusha firing site in Aqaba


At an urgent weekend consultation, US, British, Egyptian, Jordanian and Israeli intelligence and counter-terror officials concluded that Abu Musab al-Zarqawi’s terror teams now pose an imminent threat to Israel. The Katyusha rocket which landed harmlessly near Israel’s Eilat airport across from Jordanian Aqaba on Friday, Aug 19, was not a stray from the volley aimed at the two US naval vessels docked in the Jordanian Red Sea port. It was Zarqawi’s first direct attack against Israel and it was aimed at its southernmost airport. The fact that the rocket missed its target was neither here nor there according to their common assessment.

Since those attacks, Jordan, Egypt and Israel have put their sea and air ports and essential installations on high terror alert. Washington quietly barred new danger zones to US diplomats and military officers serving in those countries: Aqaba, all of Jordan south of Amman up to the Saudi border, the Jordan River bridge crossings between Israel and Hashemite kingdom, the southern Israeli highway to the Red Sea port of Eilat across from Aqaba, and the Eilat resort.

All these locations are now rated as high risk of terror attack. According to incoming intelligence data, the Zarqawi network has pumped fresh terror teams into Jordan. They are supported by an extensive local logistical structure in place that is composed mostly of Palestinians together with Iraqi, Egyptian and Syrian nationals.

Earlier, US officials were ordered to stay out of Sinai. In addition to last week’s bombing attempt against the US-led Multinational Observer Force, DEBKAfile’s counter-terror sources report four unpublicized shooting attacks on vehicles traveling on northeastern Sinai roads near the Israel border. Zarqawi’s men are obviously in command of free routes between Iraq, Jordan, Sinai and parts of Israel’s southern and eastern Negev. Local gangs of gunrunners are hired along the way to secrete them across borders to reach their targets.

Our sources add that anti-terror agencies infer from the different names under which al Qaeda communiqués refer to its latest operations as indicative of another alarming development: Zarqawi’s followers fighting against Americans forces in Iraq call themselves “Al Qaeda’s Forces in the Land of the Two Rivers.” The attacks in Jordan and Sinai are claimed by “Al Qaeda in Egypt and the Levant.” The al Qaeda branch just set up in the Gaza Strip is referred to as “Jihad Brigades in the Border Districts.”

These titles are more than braggadocio; they are the names of the regional commands into which Zarqawi has divided the fronts of his terrorist offensive for synchronized operations.

Initial official attempts to discount the rocket firing against Eilat were quickly scotched by al Qaeda’s claim of responsibility on the day it was staged.

Friday, Aug 19, the Abdullah al-Azzam Brigades of the al Qaeda Organization in the Levant and Egypt, announced over the Internet its “fighters” had fired three Katyusha rockets at “US vessels in Jordan and at (Israel’s) Eilat port… before returning safely to base.”

This group also claimed the bombing attacks on Sharm el Sheikh in July and Taba last year, which together killed more than 100 people. After warning the Americans to “expect even more stinging attacks”, the group went on to state: “The Zionists are always a legitimate target. We bombed you at Taba and will soon reach Tel Aviv.”

One of the three rockets fired Friday killed a Jordanian soldier and injured another, landing on the Emir Haya base parade ground during a drill practice; a second whizzed past the USS Ashland landing craft to land on a quayside warehouse. No members of the 26th Marine Expeditionary Unit aboard were hurt. The third partially exploded near a taxi 150 meters from Eilat airport, slightly hurting the driver.

“This is our debut operation in Jordan,” boasted the Abdullah al-Azzam Brigades. “As we have begun to destroy the throne of the Egyptian tyrant (the Sharm al Sheikh, Taba bombings), we warn the Jordanian tyrant to release our jailed brothers and abdicate before we force you to go.”

This was not the first al Qaeda communiqué of late. Since the second week of August, three warnings to Israel have been released.

The first appeared on August 9, a week before the dismantling of Israeli locations in the Gaza Strip began. It was signed “The Ashura Council of al Qaeda-Palestine.” Addressed mainly to the Palestinians, it consisted of an attack on the democratic process Washington seeks to inculcate in Palestinian governance as a means of weaning Hamas and the Jihad Islami away from terrorism. This message decries democracy as anti-Islamic and a violation of the Ashura Council mode enshrined in Islamic law. It also tempts the faithful to elect representatives who enact laws contrary to the Shari code.

Al Qaeda sees the Islam-versus-democracy issue, largely waved aside by the Sharon government, as of prime importance and the key ideological justification for attacking both the Jewish state and the Palestinian Authority.

At the same time, the communiqué allows pragmatic tactics: “Living as we do in a period in which heretics (the Palestinian Authority) and true believers are mixed together, fighting the Jews (Israelis) and the Crusaders (the Americans and their allies) must take the highest priority.”

Two days later, on August 11, a second Internet notice was signed the “Jihad Brigades of the Border Districts,” another name for al Qaeda-Palestine. It was a transparent effort to ascertain that Israelis and Palestinians alike were apprised of the new organization in the Gaza Strip.

The third warning appeared on August 16. By then, the Israel army and police had begun evicting Israelis from the Gaza Strip. This four-page missive consisted of a list of oaths of allegiance sworn by the Jihadist Brigades in the Border Districts (Palestine) to the Taliban leader Mullah Omar, who is termed “Emir of the Faithful and Head of the Islamic Caliphate.”

The three messages reveal a carefully calibrated al Qaeda operation of four steps, designed to parellel the Israeli pullout from the Gaza Strip:

1. August 2: The Al Qaeda-Palestine branch makes its debut in the Gaza Strip with a public announcement of its launch.

2. August 9: The new Palestinian branch elaborates its ideological-religious platform as validation for the terrorist campaign to come.

3. The al Qaeda-Palestine Web site is unveiled, inaugurating the official outlet through which the group will claim responsibility for future operations.

4 August 16: The fighters’ oaths of allegiance are published, indicating that al Qaeda’s brigades are ready to launch terrorist operations.

Israel’s response

First: Official spokesmen first shilly-shallied, asserting it is impossible to know if the messages and warnings warrant serious attention and to identify the hand behind them. This skeptical vagueness came across in Israeli defense minister Shaul Mofaz’s comment on the Katyusha rocket that landed outside Eilat airport.

Second: An effort to keep the al Qaeda Internet warnings and moves in the Gaza Strip far from public attention. Mofaz and the chief of staff, both of whom are totally committed to Israel’s military and civilian pullback, were reluctant to heed any suggestion that the withdrawal might in fact be exploited to open the door wide for al Qaeda to walk in and join forces with Palestinian terrorists.

But al Qaeda’s threat to reach Tel Aviv after the rocket attacks last Friday came through loud and clear. It is hard to wave away the strong Palestinian element in the Abdullah Azzam Brigades which staged that attack, a branch of the same terrorist organization as the Jihad Brigades of the Border Districts. This manifestation was first reported by DEBKAfile on August 3, 2005. To see the article, click HERE.
Snuffysmith
http://www.cbsnews.com/stories/2005/08/17/...ain782930.shtml

Bin Laden Expert Steps Forward
Aug. 21, 2005

Ex-CIA Agent Sizes Up Osama


"Michael Scheuer created a secret CIA unit for tracking and eliminating Osama bin Laden. (Photo: CBS)

Scheuer says in May 2003, Osama bin Laden secured a fatwa - an Islamic decree - from a Saudi sheik saying he would be justified in using nuclear weapons against Americans, in retaliation for Muslims who have died.

Scheuer speaks with Correspondent Steve Kroft in his first television interview since resigning from the CIA and emerging from anonymity to speak publicly for the first time in 22 years. No one in the West knows more about the al Qaeda leader than Scheuer (left), who has tracked him since the mid-1980s.

(CBS) Michael Scheuer, one of the CIA's foremost authorities on Osama bin Laden, is the senior intelligence analyst who created and then advised a secret CIA unit for tracking and eliminating bin Laden since 1996.

When Correspondent Steve Kroft first reported this story last fall, Scheuer was at the center of an ongoing battle between the CIA and the White House over Mideast policy and the war on terror.

With the CIA's blessing, Scheuer authored a highly critical book on the administration's counterterrorism policy, published under the name Anonymous, which the White House viewed as a thinly veiled attempt by the CIA to undermine the president. Through it all, Anonymous remained anonymous, until last November, when he resigned from the CIA after 22 years and revealed his identity on 60 Minutes. After a career as a spy charged with keeping secrets, Scheuer decided it was more important to join the public debate on how to best attack Osama bin Laden and al Qaeda.

"His genius lies in his ability to isolate a few American policies that are widely hated across the Muslim world. And that growing hatred is going to yield growing violence," says Scheuer. "Our leaders continue to say that we're making strong headway against this problem. And I think we are not."

In 1996, at a time when little was known about the wealthy Saudi, other than he was suspected of financing terrorism, Scheuer was assigned to create a bin Laden desk at the CIA.

"The uniqueness of the unit was more or less that it was focused on a single individual. It was really the first time the agency had done that sort of effort," says Scheuer.

Did he try to figure out where bin Laden was? "Where he was, where his cells were, where his logistical channels were," says Scheuer. "How he communicated. Who his allies were. Who donated to them... I think it's fair to say the entire range of sources were brought to bear."

Code-named "Alec," the unit was originally made up of about a dozen agents. And in less than a year, they discovered that bin Laden was more than some wealthy Saudi throwing his money around - and that his organization, known as al Qaeda, was not a Muslim charity.

"We had found that he and al Qaeda were involved in an extraordinarily sophisticated and professional effort to acquire weapons of mass destruction. In this case, nuclear material, so by the end of 1996, it was clear that this was an organization unlike any other one we had ever seen," says Scheuer.

Scheuer says his bosses at the CIA were initially skeptical of that information. And that was just the beginning of his frustrations.

In a letter to the House and Senate Intelligence Committees earlier this year, Scheuer says his agents provided the U.S. government with about ten opportunities to capture bin Laden before Sept. 11, and that all of them were rejected.

One of the last proposals, which he described to the 9/11 Commission in a closed-door session, involved a cruise missile attack against a remote hunting camp in the Afghan desert, where bin Laden was believed to be socializing with members of the royal family from the United Arab Emirates.

Scheuer wanted to level the entire camp. "The world is lousy with Arab princes," says Scheuer. "And if we could have got Osama bin Laden, and saved at some point down the road 3,000 American lives, a few less Arab princes would have been OK in my book."

"You couldn't have done this without killing an Arab prince," asks Kroft.

"Probably not. Sister Virginia used to say, 'You'll be known by the company you keep.' That if those princes were out there eating goat with Osama bin Laden, then maybe they were there for nefarious reasons. But nonetheless, they would have been the price of battle."

And that doesn't bother him? "Not a lick," says Scheuer.

"My understanding is you had a reputation within the CIA as being fairly obsessive about this subject," says Kroft. "I dislike obsessive," says Scheuer. "I think hard-headed about it."

"Michael Scheuer created a secret CIA unit for tracking and eliminating Osama bin Laden. Whatever you call it, in 1999, three years after he started the bin Laden unit, Scheuer's candor got him into trouble with his supervisors at the CIA. What were the circumstances under which he left the bin Laden unit?

"I think I became too insistent that we were not pursuing this target with enough vigor and with enough risk-taking -- an unwillingness to take risks," says Scheuer. "I got relieved of the position I was in. I had a lovely sojourn in the library and then had other sojourns since."

His exile ended shortly after the attacks of Sept. 11, when he was brought back to the bin Laden unit as a special adviser. But by then, everything had changed.

His nemesis had gone underground, and the United States was on its way to invading Afghanistan and Iraq - creating, Scheuer says, the perception in the minds of 1.3 billion Muslims that America had gone to war against Islam.

"The war in Iraq - if Osama was a Christian - it's the Christmas present he never would have expected," says Scheuer.

Right or wrong, he says Muslims are beginning to view the United States as a colonial power with Israel as its surrogate, and with a military presence in three of the holiest places in Islam: the Arabian peninsula, Iraq, and Jerusalem. And he says it is time to review and debate American policy in the region, even our relationship with Israel.

"No one wants to abandon the Israelis. But I think the perception is, and I think it's probably an accurate perception, that the tail is leading the dog - that we are giving the Israelis carte blanche ability to exercise whatever they want to do in their area," says Scheuer. "And if that's what the American people want, then that's what the policy should be, of course. But the idea that anything in the United States is too sensitive to discuss or too dangerous to discuss is really, I think, absurd."

Is he talking about appeasement?

"I'm not talking about appeasement. There's no way out of this war at the moment," says Scheuer. "It's not a choice between war and peace. It's a choice between war and endless war. It's not appeasement. I think it's better even to call it American self-interest."

Scheuer believes that al Qaeda is no longer just a terrorist organization that can be defeated by killing or capturing its leaders. Now, he says it's a global insurgency that's spreading revolutionary fervor throughout the Muslim world.

"Bin Laden's still at large. His most recent speech, I think, demonstrates that he's not running rock to rock, cave to cave. We are tangled in a very significant Islamic insurgency in Iraq," says Scheuer.

"Most dramatically, and perhaps least noticed, is the violence inside Saudi Arabia itself. Saudi Arabia was, until just a few years ago, probably one of the most safe countries on Earth. And now the paper is daily full of activities and shootouts between Islamists who supported Osama bin Laden and the government there."

(CBS) But if bin Laden is much stronger than he was, why haven't there been more attacks on the United States?

"One of the great intellectual failures of the American intelligence community, and especially the counterterrorism community, is to assume if someone hasn't attacked us, it's because he can't or because we've defeated him," says Scheuer. "Bin Laden has consistently shown himself to be immune to outside pressure. When he wants to do something, he does it on his own schedule."

"You've written no one should be surprised when Osama bin Laden and al Qaeda detonate a weapon of mass destruction in the United States," says Kroft. "You believe that's going to happen?"

"I don't believe in inevitability. But I think it's pretty close to being inevitable," says Scheuer.

A nuclear weapon? "A nuclear weapon of some dimension, whether it's actually a nuclear weapon, or a dirty bomb, or some kind of radiological device," says Scheuer. "Yes, I think it's probably a near thing."

What evidence is there that bin Laden's actually working to do this? "He's told us it. Bin Laden is remarkably eager for Americans to know why he doesn't like us, what he intends to do about it and then following up and doing something about it in terms of military actions," says Scheuer. "He's told us that, 'We are going to acquire a weapon of mass destruction, and if we acquire it, we will use it.'"

After Sept. 11, Scheuer says bin Laden was criticized by Muslim clerics for launching such a serious attack without sufficient warning. That has now been given. And he says bin Laden has even obtained a fatwa, or Islamic decree, justifying a nuclear attack against the United States on religious grounds.

"He secured from a Saudi sheik named Hamid bin Fahd a rather long treatise on the possibility of using nuclear weapons against the Americans. Specifically, nuclear weapons," says Scheuer. "And the treatise found that he was perfectly within his rights to use them. Muslims argue that the United States is responsible for millions of dead Muslims around the world, so reciprocity would mean you could kill millions of Americans."

Scheuer says the fatwa was issued in May 2003, "and that's another thing that doesn't come to the attention of the American people."

Despite this threat, Scheuer insists the CIA doesn't have nearly enough trained analysts working on the Osama bin Laden unit today. At a time when Congress is considering revolutionary changes in the way the intelligence community is organized, Scheuer sees no major problems with the CIA or the product it produces.

He blames Sept. 11 on poor leadership from people like former CIA Director George Tenet, his chief deputy, Jim Pavitt, and former White House counterterrorism czar Richard Clarke, who were invited, but declined, to appear on Sunday's 60 Minutes.

"Richard Clarke has said that you're really sort of a hothead, a middle manager who really didn't go to any of the cabinet meetings in which important things were discussed, and that basically you were just uninformed," says Kroft.

"I certainly agree with the fact that I didn't go to the cabinet meetings. But I'm certainly also aware that I'm much better informed than Mr. Clarke ever was about the nature of the intelligence that was available against Osama bin Laden and which was consistently denigrated by himself and Mr. Tenet," says Scheuer.

"I think Mr. Clarke had a tendency to interfere too much with the activities of the CIA, and our leadership at the senior level let him interfere too much," continues Scheuer. "So criticism from him, I kind of wear as a badge of honor."

Is there anything about bin Laden that Americans don't know, but should? "Yeah, I think there is. I think our leaders over the last decade have done the American people a disservice in continuing to characterize Osama bin Laden as a thug, as a gangster, as a degenerate personality, as some kind of abhorrent individual," says Scheuer.

"He surely does reprehensible activities, and we should surely take care of that by killing him as soon as we can. But he's not an irrational man. He's a very worthy enemy. He's an enemy to worry about."

"You wrote in your book that he's a great man," says Kroft.

"Yes, certainly a man, without the connotation good or bad, he's a great man in the sense that he's influenced the course of history," says Scheuer.

Does he respect bin Laden? "Until we respect him, we are going to die in numbers that are probably unnecessary," says Scheuer.
Snuffysmith
http://en.rian.ru/world/20050822/41200481.html

World
Expert says U.S. is underestimating bin Laden
10:19 | 22/ 08/ 2005




WASHINGTON, August 22 (RIA Novosti correspondent Arkady Orlov) - Washington has underestimated Osama bin Laden, according to the chief of the former CIA unit established nine years ago to capture the world's most wanted man.

Michael Scheuer told U.S. television channel CBS Sunday that U.S. authorities had harmed Americans by continually portraying bin Laden as a gangster and the degenerate type of a bandit, and an altogether disgusting person in the last 10 years. Scheuer said bin Laden was not insane, but a worthy adversary.

He called bin Laden a great man for having influenced the march of history.

The CIA officer warned that bin Laden could stage an attack on the United States using weapons of mass destruction and said Bin Laden had been given a fatwa, a kind of Muslim blessing, for the attack back in 2003.

Scheuer said bin Laden had received a detailed treatise from Saudi Sheikh Hamid bin Fahda on the possibility of using nuclear weapons against Americans.
Snuffysmith
http://www.cnn.com/2005/WORLD/meast/08/26/alqaeda.book/

Al Qaeda in Iraq issues virulent manifesto
Group calls for violence, destruction of 'American empire'

Friday, August 26, 2005; Posted: 11:46 p.m. EDT (03:46 GMT)

What Is This? (CNN) -- Laying out its ideology in a broad manifesto, the group al Qaeda in Iraq -- which has been behind many of the worst attacks, beheadings and kidnappings in Iraq -- says the insurgency is in better shape than the United States acknowledges and vows to continue the insurgency and "destroy the American empire."

"Every now and then, the schoolboys of the Pentagon and the adolescents of the Black House keep blasting our ears with talks of pure arrogance and conviction saying, 'We will not leave Iraq until we accomplish our mission.' This desperate catchphrase that they keep repeating is used to make the public believe that the mujahedeens are in bad shape, as if they are begging the Americans, saying, 'Please Americans, leave Iraq,' " the group says in an e-book, an extensive document on the Internet.

"We vow by the name of God that we are determined to destroy the American empire," it says.

The book, filled with calls for violence and hate for all but "true Muslims" -- a group that it says does not include Shiites -- surfaced on an Islamic Web site this week.

In the past, al Qaeda in Iraq has expressed itself through statements claiming responsibility for attacks and an on-line magazine. The e-book offers links to three issues of the magazine.

Al Qaeda in Iraq also has given justifications for violence through audio comments from its leader, Abu Musab al-Zarqawi.

The e-book includes numerous sections totaling dozens of pages, covering such topics as how the Quran justifies beheadings and why democracy is wrong.

The document does not list an author. It refers to al-Zarqawi in the third person, possibly indicating he did not write it.

The United States and the Iraqi government call the Jordanian-born al-Zarqawi the most wanted terrorist in the country. The United States has posted a $25 million reward for information leading to his capture.

While part of the document seems to have been written relatively recently, another part refers to to the government of Ayad Allawi, who had been interim leader in Iraq.

No date was given for the document.

Repeatedly, the book calls on Muslims to launch attacks against foreign forces in Iraq and people who cooperate with them.

"The basics of our faith revolve around not harming true Muslims and not shedding one single drop of Muslim blood because one drop of true Muslim blood shed amounts to the demise of this whole world. So why do we carry out operations in Iraq against the Americans and their aides in the (Iraqi) army and police? First, to please God, who orders us to carry on this jihad and to force the occupiers to pull out of the land," it says, vowing to "spread the light of justice and glory all over the world."

It cites "the glory that shines from our brothers, local and foreign fighters who left their countries, spouses and children and are sacrificing their blood for you to protect you and protect your families and honor, your women and children, forcing the occupiers to pull out of your country."

The document calls on Iraqi troops and police to turn their backs on the new elected government.

"You who betrayed Muslims and in humiliation became one of many collaborators, a servant under the command of the cross, we ask you to return to your Islamic instinct or cutting your neck will be your only punishment for your treason against your religion and your people."

It adds this warning: "Repent or else."

The group says its "doctrine and mission are clear and they can be summarized as our agreement to believe in and fight for the religion of God. We believe that those who follow these beliefs and the provisions of faith are true Muslims and anyone who denounces any of these beliefs and conditions is an infidel even if he still claims to be a Muslim."

It calls the Shiite faith "a confession of polytheism and rejectionism."

The document warns there will be no end to the insurgency. "The call for jihad goes on until doomsday, whether there is an imam calling for it or not."

The central image of the e-book is the group's logo -- a globe with an open book, presumably the Quran. Coming out of the center of the Quran are a spear, a Kalashnikov rifle, a hand with the pointer finger sticking up -- a symbol of unity -- and a banner reading, "There is no God but God; Mohammed is the messenger of God."

CNN's Octavia Nasr contributed to this report.
Snuffysmith
http://www.debka.com/article.php?aid=1080

Three Continents Tense for al Qaeda Action to Mark 4th Anniversary of 9/11

DEBKAfile Exclusive Report

September 6, 2005, 11:24 PM (GMT+02:00)

While the Bush administration wrestles with the distress, turmoil and fury of Hurricane Katrina, US security and intelligence agencies, like their counterparts in Europe and the Middle East, are tensed nervously for some al Qaeda action to mark next Sunday’s fourth anniversary of the Sept. 11 attacks on New York and Washington.

The places believed most prone to attack are New York and Washington – again - as well as London, Paris, Rome, Warsaw, Moscow, Sofia, Cairo, Riyadh and Tel Aviv.

But DEBKAfile’s counter-terror sources caution against predicting al Qaeda’s next moves. Osama bin Laden’s jihadists rarely strike when and where they are expected; more often than not, they catch their victims by surprise.

Nonetheless, a number of manifestations point to an imminent terror operation:

1. Intelligence data trickling out of Iraq in the past month depicts al Qaeda’s commander in the “Land of the Two Rivers” as spending most of his time preparing a terrorist spectacular. Most intelligence experts calculate that a strike, if masterminded by Zarqawi, will take place in Europe or the Middle East rather than the United States.

2. In the last few days, there is a fresh upsurge of coded electronic correspondence among the various al Qaeda branches which reflects an anticipatory buzz ahead of the anniversary. But what is afoot? Is it a ritual celebration or a death-dealing operation? This is not known.

3. Intelligence experts predict that the trouble besetting the Bush administration over the Katrina hurricane disaster will predispose al Qaeda to make a special effort to add to American suffering. A hint of this intention was found in Zarqawi’s communiqué of September 4. He thanked Allah for harnessing the elements of nature against America and swore to carry on from there.

But a sense of alarm was struck in the West earlier by a strange notice appearing on al Qaeda’s internal electronic network on August 24. DEBKA-Net-Weekly 219 ran the notice on Aug. 26 after it was picked up by its al Qaeda experts:

Osama bin Laden, referred to in some sites as Sheikh Abu Abdullah, was reported injured in his left leg while taking part in an attack on a Spanish military base in Afghanistan. A four-hour long videotape of the expedition was promised and the faithful asked to pray for the Sheikh’s recovery.

The videotape was never aired.

DEBKA-Net-Weekly’s experts on al Qaeda offered these comments:

Osama bin Laden never fought Spanish forces in Afghanistan and therefore suffered no leg injury. Why then did al Qaeda publish this tall story, when the organization normally takes care to guard its credibility?

There are two optional explanations.

One, the great Osama bin Laden cannot show himself as less of a hero than his Iraq commander Abu Musab al Zarqawi who, after he was wounded in a US attack on al-Qaim region last June, continued to lead the faithful into battle against the Americans and is currently masterminding a terrorist offensive striking at points in Europe and the Middle East. To polish his image and dispel the impression that he is a fading force, bin Laden is disseminating the tale of an injury in battle. It is intended to show al Qaeda’s leader in the same glorious light as Zarqawi whose popularity in al Qaeda’s ranks threatens to rival his own.

Two, it may be Bin Laden’s way of informing his adherents that he has recovered from an injury sufficiently to launch a fresh round of jihad operations. The message, seen in this context, would presage high-profile attacks - personally commanded by the leader himself or his close lieutenants, who would pass onto him the kudos for their success.

This second rationale would account for the timing of the communiqué in the third week of August, shortly before the Sept 11 anniversary. Even if that date comes and goes without a terrorist attack, the whole of September must be deemed a high-risk month.
Snuffysmith
http://web.tickle.com/tests/uiq/index-pop....redswingline&z=


AL-QAEDA AND THE HOUSE OF SAUD
Eternal enemies or secret bedfellows?
By John R Bradley

In February, less than two years after suicide attacks on Western residential compounds in Riyadh killed 34 people, including nine Americans, and ushered in an unprecedented wave of terrorist violence across the kingdom, the Saudi capital hosted a three-day international counterterrorism conference.

During the short period between the bombings and the terrorism conference in Riyadh, Saudi Arabia's image had transformed from an oasis of relative calm in an often volatile region into the place held responsible in many ways for al-Qaeda's birth and growth and where the triumph or demise of this international terrorist organization would ultimately be determined.

Underlining President George W Bush's wish to work publicly as closely as possible with the al-Saud in the ongoing fight against al-Qaeda, its affiliates and its sympathizers in Saudi Arabia and elsewhere, US homeland security adviser Frances Fragos Townsend emerged from the conference declaring that



Washington "stands squarely" with the kingdom's rulers. She emphasized that the conference was proof positive of a "commitment to the elimination of terrorism" on the part of the al-Saud ruling family. [1]

Yet, not all observers were quite so bowled over by the stage-managed proceedings in Riyadh. [2] The delegates from numerous international organizations, the United States and 50 Arab, Asian and European countries, with the exclusion of Israel, which predictably was not among the invitees, sat listening to senior Saudi princes, who have been routinely accused of at the very least failing to prevent the funneling of money from Saudi-based charities to terrorist organizations, give speeches condemning terrorism.

As recently as July, the US government suggested that wealthy Saudi individuals remain "a significant source" of funds for Islamic terrorists around the world, despite widely publicized efforts to shut down these channels. [3] On top of such accusations, it is widely recognized that the royal family has empowered a hardline Wahhabi religious establishment that propagates an extremist interpretation of Islam, which critics argue acts as a guide and inspiration to terrorists such as Saudi dissident Osama bin Laden and his followers, giving it ideological and day-to-day control over the kingdom's mosques, judiciary, schools, media and religious police.

There were thus two polarized reactions to the conference, reflecting the diametrically opposed views among Saudi observers in the West when it comes to the question of the kingdom's role in the "war on terrorism". On one side are those such as Townsend who, believing Saudi Arabia to be a crucial ally, focused on the conference's powerful symbolism. They stressed that one of its important objectives was to dispel persisting doubts in the West about the Saudi royal family's commitment to combating terrorism. On the other side are those who see duplicity in every al-Saud statement [4] and were especially critical of the conference's high symbolism, as it allowed the regime to showcase its purported counterterrorism successes without having to engage in substantive debate on broader, more controversial issues.

Both interpretations contain elements of truth. When it comes to the issue of fighting al-Qaeda, the al-Saud regime has been and continues to be part of the problem in fundamental ways. Yet, it is equally undeniable that, considering the absolute nature of the al-Saud family's rule and the dearth of acceptable alternatives, at least in Western eyes, the regime is indispensable to any solution to terrorism. Townsend implicitly acknowledged in Riyadh that, if bin Laden's goal was to overthrow the House of Saud and subsequently to gain the prestige that would come from the custodianship of Islam's two holy mosques and control of one-quarter of the world's known oil reserves, then the main US policy objective in response must be to guarantee the royal family's survival.

Al-Qaeda stakes its claim
Oddly, it would appear that bin Laden shares Townsend's view that the endgame of the global jihad preached by al-Qaeda will be played out in Saudi Arabia. Having failed to topple regimes or establish permanent Islamic governments in Algeria, Egypt, Sudan, Yemen and Afghanistan, and with failure imminent in Iraq as well, bin Laden's birthplace remains his last-gasp opportunity. If he fails there, he will ultimately have failed in his broader strategy. Despite their evident willingness to conduct smaller-scale terrorist operations, al-Qaeda cells in Saudi Arabia appear to be holding off from a direct attack on an oil installation or pipeline or against the Saudi royal family itself.

In his two direct addresses to the Saudi regime, in August 1995 and December 2004, even bin Laden himself called for internal reform within the Saudi government rather than revolution from below. Self-appointed al-Qaeda spokesmen regularly post on websites that the organization is waiting to launch a full-scale assault against the al-Saud and its economic lifeline because a direct threat to their rule will cause the princes' "separate fingers to become an iron fist". A major attack would almost certainly result in the imposition of a state of emergency, restricting terrorists' mobility. It is better, the spokesmen argue, to let the royal family squabble among themselves about reforms as resentment grows over intensifying economic problems. An increasingly unstable Saudi Arabia would remain a fertile recruiting ground for arms, money and volunteers.

All this, critics claim, is well understood by the al-Saud ruling family, who, it has long been argued, paid off al-Qaeda in the 1990s to ensure there would be no direct attacks launched against its regime. [5] It is indeed strange, considering the often-trumpeted line that al-Qaeda wants to "overthrow the Saudi ruling family and replace it with a Taliban-style regime", that no Saudi princes have been assassinated, despite the many thousands of them, most of whom are more vulnerable to such targeting than Westerners who live in heavily guarded residential compounds. Could it be, therefore, that bin Laden recognizes that, in the official Wahhabi religious establishment he officially despises, because they legitimize the al-Saud regime's rule by, as the favorite Islamist taunt goes, "issuing fatwas for money", he nevertheless sees his closest ideological ally in a world where he is hunted and increasingly marginalized?

Promoting a solution ...
The House of Saud's role as part of the solution is the easiest to assess because it is trumpeted, rather than deliberately obscured, by the regime's officials and the state-controlled media. The Saudi government's counterterrorism framework includes an amnesty offer for militants who turn themselves in, that they will not face the death penalty and will only be prosecuted if they commit acts that hurt others; [6] a massive anti-extremism campaign in the Saudi media and on billboards throughout the main cities, given a boost by the high number of Saudis and other fellow Muslims among the November 2003 bombing casualties; [7] the reeducation of extremist clerics by the Saudi royal family, although the details remained vague and there was never any independent verification that this retraining ever actually took place; [8] and unprecedented cooperation between the Central Intelligence Agency and Saudi security forces, which includes sophisticated command centers in Jeddah and Riyadh. [9]

The May 2003 bombings served as a wake-up call for the Saudi royal family, leading it to construct the above framework, and it has since been locked in an endless cycle of violent confrontation with militants. Between May 2003 and June 2005, more than 30 major terrorism-related incidents occurred in the kingdom. At least 91 foreign nationals and Saudi civilians have been killed and 510 wounded, according to former intelligence chief Prince Turki al-Faisal.

Al-Faisal has also stated that 41 security force members have been killed and 218 wounded, while 112 militants have been killed and 25 wounded. [10] Included among these: a November 2003 attack on another Riyadh compound killed 17 people, but this time the dead were mostly Muslims. This attack, however, seems to have been an isolated incident, as all other attacks have targeted the regime, or Western people, buildings and businesses.

In May 2004, gunmen attacked the offices of the Houston-based company ABB Lummus Global, in the Red Sea port city of Yanbu, killing six Westerners and a Saudi. One month later, oil company compounds in the Eastern Province city of al-Khobar were the target; hostages were taken at the Oasis residential building, and at least 30 people were killed. In December 2004, the US consulate in Jeddah was attacked. Militants breached its heavily fortified defenses and, before being killed, managed to pull down the US flag. A group calling itself al-Qaeda on the Arabian Peninsula claimed responsibility for most of these large-scale attacks. In the meantime, al-Qaeda-affiliated cells in Riyadh and Jeddah have periodically singled out Westerners for execution. Most infamously, US contractor Paul Johnson was kidnapped in Riyadh in June 2004 and beheaded, the ghastly crime recorded on video and immediately posted on Islamist websites.

In the face of such atrocities, no one now seriously doubts the Saudi regime's commitment to hunt down and kill individual militants who have al-Qaeda cells that appear to be avoiding directly attacking the Saudi royal family. The denial of the existence of homegrown extremists, evident in Interior Minister Prince Naif's refusal for six months after the September 11 attacks to acknowledge that 15 of the 19 hijackers were Saudi nationals, is today a distant memory.

In fact, Prince Naif's internal security force has born the brunt of the casualties, losing more men battling suspected al-Qaeda cells than any other security force in the Arab world. In April, it was an Interior Ministry announcement that reported how residents of the tiny provincial capital of Sakaka in Saudi Arabia's northernmost province, Jouf, had witnessed a grisly scene in the main public square: the corpses of three convicted and beheaded militants had been tied to poles, on top of which were placed their severed heads. The three, who had returned to the kingdom after fighting in Afghanistan, were executed by the central government after being convicted of murdering the region's deputy governor, a top religious court judge and a police chief. They had also killed a Saudi soldier and kidnapped a foreign national, long before such kidnappings became "fashionable" among Islamist groups in the Middle East.

At its height in 2003, the unrest in Jouf, a power base of the al-Sudairi branch of the ruling family, which included King Fahd, Defense Minister Prince Sultan and Riyadh governor Prince Salman, represented in microcosm the kingdom-wide tensions that threatened to spill over into a general uprising. [11] The rebellion's end in April this year, with the crudely symbolic public display of its leaders' heads, marked the moment that the al-Saud triumphed over the most extreme of its homegrown enemies, at least for the time being.

From a list of the 26 most wanted terrorists issued after the May 2003 bombings, only two remain at large; the others have been killed or captured or have surrendered. Just hours after Riyadh issued a new list of 36 most wanted terrorists in July, the Moroccan terrorist at the top, Younis Mohammed Ibrahim al-Hayari, was killed in a shoot-out with Saudi security forces. [12]

... or fueling the problem?
The other role of the House of Saud - its part in the problem - is much more difficult to document and explain, as the Saudi regime does not want the world to know about it. What is clear, however, is the broad context: Riyadh's fight against terrorism since May 2003 and related calls for national unity have provided a facade for behind-the-scenes moves to strengthen the role of the Wahhabi religious establishment, with whom the al-Saud rules in effective partnership. [13]

Such moves are bad news for the "war on terrorism" in Saudi Arabia and elsewhere. The Saudi royal family certainly cracked down hard on al-Qaeda in the wake of the September 11 attacks and the subsequent Islamist campaign of violence inside the kingdom. To shore up support among its core constituents, however, whom the crackdown risked alienating, it also reached out not only to the masses through advertising campaigns, but also to the hardline religious establishment whose support legitimizes the royal family. The regime claimed to endorse a "truer" version of Islam than that of the terrorist organizations. Yet, the line between that "truer" Islam and al-Qaeda's proclaimed ideology is becoming increasingly blurred.

Saudi leaders, in their eagerness to prove their Islamist credentials in the face of charges of being US puppets, [14] have empowered a number of clerics who, although not overtly critical of the regime, are also not overtly critical of the terrorists - indeed, on occasion, quite the reverse. The words and actions of these clerics challenge the official, antiterrorism narrative fine-tuned at the Riyadh conference, heavily promoted by the state-controlled media as well as Saudi embassies abroad, and tied to reality by the frequent clashes between the security forces and suspected militants. In this counternarrative, the al-Saud, despite its effort to hunt down those who directly threaten its own rule, is less serious about tackling the deeper issues related to the funding of, ideological legitimization of, and recruitment for al-Qaeda in the kingdom.

Particularly alarming was Riyadh's announcement, just days after the counterterrorism conference and one day before a first round of partial municipal elections got underway, that Abdullah al-Obeid, a former head of an Islamic charity, had been appointed as the kingdom's new education minister.

Described by the Wall Street Journal as "an official enmeshed in a terror financing controversy", he is a former director of the Muslim World League (WML), the parent organization of the International Islamic Relief Organization, which the US Department of the Treasury claims may have had financial ties to Islamist terrorist groups. Obeid was head of the WML from 1995 to 2002, during which time the charity spent tens of millions of dollars to finance the spread of Wahhabism. The Wall Street Journal quoted an essay by Obeid from 2002 in which he blamed "some mass media centers that are managed and run by Jews in the West" for reports linking terrorism and Islam. [15] He also reportedly organized symposiums to explain that Palestinian suicide attacks on Israelis "are conducted in self-defense" and "are lawful and approved by all religious standards, international treaties, norms and announcements". [16]

On the basis of such evidence, Obeid, who replaced as education minister the secular, progressive-minded Muhammad al-Rasheed, a man hated by the hardline Wahhabis, [17] is not an individual the West should trust to delete anti-Semitic and anti-Christian passages from the Saudi school curriculum, let alone its pro-jihadi rhetoric, all widely blamed as providing ideological justification for attacks on non-Muslims by terrorist groups such as al-Qaeda.

Nor, for that matter, is there much cause for confidence in the Saudi chief justice, Saleh bin Muhammad al-Luhaidan, who also holds the rank of government minister. Luhaidan has been accused of instructing Saudis on how to fight US and Iraqi troops in Iraq in the name of Allah. An October 2004 recording obtained and distributed by a Washington-based Saudi dissident group has Luhaideen making remarks at a mosque in Riyadh in response to questions from a group of Saudis who wanted to join terrorist organizations in Iraq. [18] He is heard advising that those who still want to join the fight must be careful when entering the country because US planes and satellite surveillance equipment may be monitoring the borders. He adds that those Saudis who do manage to enter Iraq will not be punished by the Saudi security forces and insists that money raised for the jihad must go directly to those who will launch attacks.

Two of the kingdom's most extremist, anti-Western clerics, Safar al-Hawali and Salman al-Auda, known as "awakening sheikhs" because of their powerful influence on young Arab Muslims in the early 1990s in the aftermath of the Persian Gulf War when they were imprisoned by the al-Saud, have also returned to the mainstream, even acting as intermediaries between the government and suspected terrorists. [19]

Hawali, who reportedly recently suffered a heart attack, is secretary general of the Global Anti-Aggression Campaign, a militant, anti-American entity established by more than 225 radical figures from across the Islamic world as a response to the US invasion of Iraq. The group's initial statement condemned "the Zionists and the American administration led by right-wing extremists that are working to expand their control over nations and peoples, loot their resources, destroy their will, and to change their educational curricula and social system". [20] In November 2004, Hawali and Auda were among 26 Saudi clerics, most of whom receive their salaries from the Saudi royal family, who published a religious statement urging Muslims to wage holy war in Iraq.

"Jihad against the occupiers is a must," said the statement. "It is not only a legitimate right, but a religious duty." [21] The fact that both of these men remain in their jobs speaks volumes. The al-Saud's secret strategy is to put out the message that it is okay to attack "infidels" in Iraq, but not in Saudi Arabia. Critics of the regime refer to this when they point out alleged "Saudi duplicity". According to a recent study, some 60% of suicide bombers in Iraq are Saudi nationals, [22] and even a Saudi-based analyst concedes that as many as 2,500 Saudis have crossed over to Iraq to join the insurgency. [23] Saudi observer and Gulf expert Simon Henderson has written in a more general context:
Worried about their own necks, the Saudi royal family tolerates a political fudge, hoping that it can reduce support for al-Qaeda from among its citizens and win the battle for Islamic legitimacy. Al-Qaeda recognizes the basic rules, targeting foreigners. Hence, no direct attacks on members of the House of Saud itself ... Before 9/11, Western officials say that senior princes were paying off bin Laden to avoid targeting the kingdom altogether. That changed when Western pressure stopped the payments. For the West, this means more terrorism and high oil prices. [24]
The new strategy of tacitly encouraging Saudi terrorists to blow themselves up in Iraq or at least not disciplining those who openly encourage such action is a continuation of this game. It represents yet another attempt by the al-Saud to postpone a final showdown with bin Laden and his followers. The al-Saud have certainly done little, if anything, to stop young Saudis from traveling to Iraq. The failure of the regime to challenge more rigorously the jihadi culture in its schools and mosques, beyond the confines of glossy advertising campaigns, as the remarks by the education minister and chief justice clearly demonstrate, compound the long-term risk of blowback from such appeasement. [25]

The al-Saud regime further muddies the water with its campaigns of outright misinformation. The hunt for Paul Johnson's corpse is a good example of this. Only hours after his murder, Saudi security forces gunned down a man believed to be al-Qaeda's leader in Saudi Arabia, Abdul Aziz al-Muqrin, in an ambush at a petrol station in the capital. He and several followers were caught, the Saudi authorities said, attempting to dispose of Johnson's corpse.

Yet, the next day it became known that Johnson's corpse had not been found. Still today, it has yet to be located, and the US Embassy in Riyadh has called off the search. In fact, despite the attempts to link Muqrin to the abduction and although Muqrin had a long and bloody history from fighting in Chechnya to apparently planning the May 2003 attacks, this was probably the one atrocity of which he was innocent.

Saudi spokesmen had mournfully repeated in Riyadh and Washington that the authorities had launched a massive manhunt for Johnson that had narrowly missed saving him but had at least brought rough justice to his abductors shortly after the deed. But this story turned out to be another example of rhetoric replacing reality. Instead, the indications are that Muqrin was lured into a trap independent of and planned well ahead of the Johnson case and that it was another terrorist leader, Saleh al-Oufi, later named as Muqrin's successor, who had carried out the abduction. When Johnson's head was recovered a month later, it was in the freezer of a safe house used by Oufi. [26]

Dangerous liaisons
Al-Qaeda's infiltration of the Saudi security forces, the widespread sympathy in those forces' rank and file for the terrorist organization's goals, and the intelligence leaks that result have had multiple negative consequences, the most profound being the assassination of senior officers and the collaboration between lower ranks of the security forces and terrorists during attacks.

Members of the state security apparatus, whose job now ostensibly amounts to keeping the al-Saud in power in the face of growing domestic opposition, find themselves directly in the radicals' firing line. A radical Saudi Islamist group affiliated with al-Qaeda claimed they blew up a car in December 2003 in Riyadh belonging to Lieutenant Colonel Ibrahim al-Dhaleh, a senior Saudi security officer who escaped by the skin of his teeth.

The group, the Brigade of the Two Holy Mosques, also said it had tried to kill Major General Abdel-Aziz al-Huweirini, the number three official in the Saudi Interior Ministry, who was shot in Riyadh the same month. The statement warned Dhaleh "and those like him" against pursuing their war against Islamists in Saudi Arabia. [27]

These were not empty threats. In April 2004, a suicide attacker driving a truck blew up the headquarters of the counterterrorism unit in Riyadh, destroying much of the building and killing five people. In December of the same year, militants attacked the Interior Ministry in Riyadh itself, although damage was minimal and claims that Prince Naif was the target were viewed skeptically because he was on an official trip to Tunisia at the time of the blast. Also, in June, Mubarak al-Sowat, head of the police investigations department in Mecca and a leading proponent of launching preemptive strikes against suspected extremists, was shot nine times outside of his home and then hacked to pieces with an axe. [28]

Giving a rare insight into the paranoia and fear with which senior security officials now have to live in Saudi Arabia, Sowat's wife told local media that her husband had received many death threats on his cell phone and by e-mail in the weeks and months leading up to his assassination and was "always distracted and nervous". He had become "constantly anxious and fearful" after he returned from Riyadh earlier in the year. [29]

Obviously, those singling out such individuals for attack must have excellent intelligence, likely provided by insiders. They know who to target, as well as their victims' exact movements and when best to strike. There is also ample evidence of collaboration between the terrorists and security forces in the execution of terrorist attacks or, at the very least, of an unwillingness to respond swiftly on some occasions.

In the attacks on the compounds in Yanbu and Khobar in May 2004, at least 90 minutes passed before security forces responded. In Khobar, the attackers were actually allowed to go free to fight another day when security forces turned a blind eye, despite the fact that the compound in which they were holed up had been completely surrounded. [30]

The attacks in Riyadh in May 2003 depended on a significant level of insider information about the three compounds targeted, almost certainly provided by those "defending" them. The suicide bombers detonated their vehicle right inside the main housing block in the Vinell compound, which took them less than a minute to reach from the gate. As they drove at breakneck speed with a bomb weighing nearly 200 kilograms to the most densely populated part of the complex, they had to know where the switches were to operate the gates after attacking the guards and exactly where the main housing block was located. [31]

The final showdown?
In his December 2004 address to the Saudi ruling family, bin Laden issued an unprecedented call for attacks that would sabotage the oil industries of the Gulf, including Saudi Arabia. [32] Al-Qaeda elements in Saudi Arabia immediately endorsed attacks on their own oil industry. "We call on all the [mujahideen] in the Arabian Peninsula to unite ... and target the oil supplies that do not serve the Islamic nation, but the enemies of this nation," said an Internet statement. [33]

Bin Laden's new tack is a shift in al-Qaeda tactics, reversing his and others' edicts from the 1990s that made oil facilities in the Muslim world off-limits to attack. Because the hoped-for Islamic empire that he and others had announced in Sudan in 1993 would need oil revenues to thrive, the oil facilities had to be preserved for the glory of Islam. [34] In Saudi Arabia, these pipelines have become the obvious new targets for the Saudi jihadis. They could be sabotaged by an amateur with no military training, and a successful attack would have a huge psychological impact.

Government officials in Riyadh dismiss talk of attacks on the oil pipelines as a scare tactic, arguing that, because Saudi security forces have killed or arrested dozens of al-Qaeda operatives, bin Laden's ability to influence events inside the kingdom has diminished. That may be true, and there is no denying the Saudi government's multiple counterterrorism successes. Yet, although attacks on the heavily guarded oil-pumping facilities are indeed unlikely, smaller incidents remain possible along the kingdom's more than 10,000-mile pipeline network.

In his message to Saudi militants, bin Laden's main aim did not appear to be the destruction of major installations, which would rob the Saudi people of their primary means of financial income and turn them completely against him and his cause, but rather acts of sabotage that would increase oil prices, which he said should be $100 a barrel. Saudi Arabia has more than a quarter of the world's known oil reserves, and even an abortive attack on the Saudi petroleum network would raise oil prices. It also would dramatically increase concerns in Washington about the al-Saud family's ability to maintain stability.

Adding to concerns about the impact of bin Laden's tape is the knowledge that the thousands of Saudi jihadis who have snuck over to Iraq are likely to return to the kingdom once Iraq stabilizes. They will have been trained in urban warfare, including instruction on how to sabotage oil pipelines. As was the case after the fall of the Taliban in Afghanistan, these Saudis are going to bring their terrorism back home with them. A confidential Interior Ministry document obtained by a London-based Saudi dissident group apparently acknowledges that 200 Saudis may have already returned to the kingdom in the wake of bin Laden's call. [35] What happens next will largely determine al-Qaeda's future in Saudi Arabia. "We expect the worst from those who went to Iraq," Prince Naif said in remarks published in July. "They will be worse [than those who have already launched attacks], and we will be ready for them." [36]

There are troubling signs; the tactics employed by the Iraqi insurgents are evident in the attacks on Westerners in Saudi Arabia. Copycat incidents include the dragging of Westerners' bodies from the back of cars, the use of assassinations to sabotage the vital oil sector, and kidnappings. The ideological bonds that bind the insurgents in Iraq and Saudi Arabia were made explicit by those who beheaded Johnson in Riyadh when they signed their claim of responsibility "the Fallujah Brigade". [37] In an attack in which six Westerners and a Saudi were killed in Yanbu, militants dragged the body of one of the victims into a local school playground and forced students to watch. "Come join your brothers in Fallujah," they shouted, in reference to the city where four US contractors had been similarly slain. [38] The al-Qaeda cell that attacked foreigners in Khobar also dragged the body of a Westerner through the streets from a car. The leader of the group said on an Islamic website afterward that a subsidiary of Halliburton had been singled out for attack because "it has a role in Iraq". [39]

The flow of Saudi jihadis to Iraq benefits the al-Saud regime in the short term, at least in the sense that, if they are blowing themselves up in Baghdad, they will not be doing so in Riyadh. Yet, there is potential for long-term blowback, just as there was when the "Afghan Arabs" returned from Afghanistan in the 1990s. The other main, related problem is that the al-Saud is increasingly following a domestic agenda focused solely on counterterrorism.

Riyadh's relentless fight against militants and repeated calls for national unity have conveniently provided a facade behind which the monarchy can abandon the few reform initiatives previously in place and reverse any movement, at least in the short term, toward democratic change. By remaining complicit with the regime, particularly at a time when Saudi citizens remain oppressed, unemployed and in some cases even impoverished, Washington is essentially allowing the kingdom to become a recruiting ground for al-Qaeda.

The United States is dependent on Saudi oil, but the Saudi regime is dependent on the US for its survival. Current US policy toward the kingdom should use that leverage to call for genuine reform, rather than just supporting the royal family in the belief that it will keep terrorists at bay. If the US does not look beyond the short-term benefits of stability resulting from its relationship with the Saudi regime, it will face far more severe, long-term consequences.

Notes
[1] Mohammed Rasooldeen US Says Saudi Victory Crucial to Defeating Global Terror, Arab News, February 8, 2005.
[2] See, for example, Simon Henderson, Lights, Camera, Inaction? Saudi Arabia's Counterterrorism Conference, PolicyWatch, no. 956, February 11, 2005.
[3] "US Calls Saudis 'Significant Source' of Terror Funding," Agence France Press, July 14, 2005.
[4] Robert Spencer, Ending the Saudi Double Game, FrontpageMagazine.com, June 23, 2005.
[5] Nick Fielding, Saudis Paid Bin Laden 200 Million Pounds, Sunday Times, August 25, 2002.
[6] "Saudis Offer Amnesty to Militants," Associated Press, June 23, 2004.
[7] "Saudi Attacks Blamed on al-Qaeda," Associated Press, November 9, 2003.
[8] "Retraining for 1,000 Saudi Preachers," Reuters, June 25, 2003.
[9] Douglas Frantz, "Once Indifferent, Saudis Allied With US in Fighting al-Qaeda," Los Angeles Times, August 8, 2004.
[10] Dominic Evans, "Saudi Arabia Says Ready to Beat Militants from Iraq," Reuters, July 10, 2005.
[11] John R Bradley, "Smoldering Rebellion Against Saudi Rule Threatens to Set Country Ablaze," Independent, January 28, 2004.
[12] Abdullah al-Shihri, "Saudis Kill Top Militant in Gun Battle in Capital," Associated Press, July 4, 2005.
[13] John R Bradley, The House of Saud Re-Embraces Fundamentalism, Asia Times Online, April 12, 2005.
[14] Bin Laden makes this accusation, at some length, in both his August 1995 and December 2004 addresses to the Saudi royal family.
[15] Glenn Simpson, "New Saudi Aide Is in Terror-Fund Probe," Wall Street Journal, February 9, 2005.
[16] For more details about al-Obeid's appointment, see Henderson, "Lights, Camera, Inaction?"
[17] "Saudi Islamic Doctrine Hard to Control," Associated Press, April 20, 2004.
[18] See "Saudi Minister Supports War Against Iraq: Report," Saudi Institute, April 26, 2005. Al-Luhaidan admitted to NBC News that the voice on the recording was his and that they were his words but claimed, rather unconvincingly, that he had not intended to express those opinions. See Lisa Myers and the NBC Investigative Unit, "More Evidence of Saudi Double Talk?" April 26, 2005, . Since he was exposed, however, al-Luhaidan has made a clear statement calling for Saudis not to enter Iraq. See "Saudi Official Warns Youths Against Fighting in Iraq," Deutsche Presse-Agentur, July 6, 2005.
[19] Erick Stakelbeck, "The Saudi Hate Machine," National Interest 2, no. 49 (December 2003).
[20] Ibid.
[21] Ibid.
[22] Stephen Schwartz, "The Foreign Face of Iraqi Terrorism," Weekly Standard, March 8, 2005.
[23 Mahen Abedin, "Al-Qaeda: In Decline or Preparing for the Next Attack? An Interview with Dr Saad al-Faqih," Jamestown Foundation 3, no. 5 (June 15, 2005), (hereinafter Jamestown interview).
[24] Simon Henderson, "Bin Laden Increases His Challenge to the House of Saud," London Times, May 31, 2004.
[25] John R Bradley, "Saudis Jihadis Aping Iraq Rebels," Washington Times, June 23, 2004.
[26] Michael Scott Doran, "Two Deaths and a Dissembling in Riyadh," Daily Star, August 27, 2004.
[27] Faiza Saleh Ambah, "Saudi Bomb: A Shift in al-Qaeda Tactics," Christian Science Monitor, April 22, 2004.
[28] "Mecca: One Security Officer Assassinated," Arabic News, June 20, 2005.
[29] "Slain Saudi Policeman Was Under Threat," United Press International, June 20, 2005.
[30] "Saudi Security Forces 'Agreed to Let Al-Qaeda Killers Escape'," London Telegraph, June 1, 2004.
[31] Robin Gedye and John R Bradley, "Bomber Moles in Saudi Security Forces," London Telegraph, May 16, 2003.
[32] John R Bradley, "Terror Comes to Saudis," Washington Times, January 19, 2004.
[33] Ibid.
[34] Amir Taheri, "What 'Fueled' the Saudi Raid," New York Post, December 6, 2004.
[35] Jamestown interview.
[36] Evans, "Saudi Arabia Says Ready to Beat Militants from Iraq."
[37] Bradley, "Saudi Jihadis Aping Iraq Rebels."
[38] Ibid.
[39] Ibid.

(Copyright 2005 by The Center for Strategic and International Studies and the Massachusetts Institute of Technology (reprinted with permission of the author from The Washington Quarterly, Autumn 2005, issue 28:4, pp 139-152.)

John R Bradley's book, Saudi Arabia Exposed: Inside a Kingdom in Crisis , has just been published.
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Report Warns of Terrorists' 'Great Ramadan Offensive'
By Sherrie Gossett
CNSNews.com Staff Writer
September 08, 2005

(CNSNews.com) - Al Qaeda's plans for a series of spectacular terrorist strikes in October, targeting American interests as well as U.S. allies in Europe and the Middle East and said to be coordinated by Osama bin Laden and his top lieutenant in Iraq - Abu Musab al-Zarqawi -- are the subject of a non-public report issued by terrorism experts this week.

The attacks, planned to coincide with the Muslim observance of Ramadan and dubbed the "Great Ramadan Offensive," are designed to create a "fateful confrontation" with the U.S. and Israeli forces in the Middle East, according to a May 30 letter from Zarqawi to bin Laden. The contents of the letter are referenced in the report written by Yossef Bodansky, the former director of the U.S. Congressional Task Force on Terrorism and Unconventional Warfare.

The Sept. 2 report is accessible only to government officials on the Global Information System (GIS) database. Cybercast News Service obtained the report on the same day as its release. It warns of planned attacks in Western Europe, Russia and perhaps the continental U.S. The specific targets are believed to include airports at Schiphol in the Netherlands and Fiumicino in Italy.

Italy remains on high alert and barricades have been placed around Rome's Colosseum. "Terrorism is coming home," the GIS report quotes one unnamed German senior official. "And it's coming home to those countries whose governments may have believed they were immune from terror because for years they have provided safe haven to notorious Islamic extremists."

An associate of Zarqawi named Abu Abdul Rahman al-Jazaeri, was said to be in Italy, but could not be located by authorities, according to Bodansky, who added that Jazeiri was believed to have recently received from a Zarqawi messenger "the definitive mandate to plan and carry out a major terrorist operation in Italy."

In late August Italy announced that it was at an elevated risk for a terrorist attack. The country expelled 700 suspected militants and arrested 141 others. News organizations reported that locks to the entrances of 49 subway stations had been changed and metal barricades erected around the 2,000-year old Colosseum in Rome.

Piecing it all together

Details of the planned attacks were pieced together from intercepted communications between top al Qaeda leaders in the latter part of August, analysis of what counter- terrorism experts described as a dramatic increase in the volume of communication among jihad forces and the observation of an unprecedented movement of jihadists and messengers around the world apparently delivering instructions.

Zarqawi, linked to numerous bombings and the beheadings of several Western hostages in Iraq, reportedly titled his letter to bin Laden, "A Message from a Soldier to His Commander." According to the GIS report, Zarqawi's letter to bin Laden alluded to "the forthcoming grand offensive comprised of escalation in the Middle East and a series of spectacular terrorist strikes" meant to overshadow the impact of the Sept. 11, 2001 terrorist strikes in New York City and Washington, D.C.

The letter also indicated Zarqawi was expecting bin Laden to approve and authorize the escalation: "I think that the plan for the next stage that was drawn up has reached you or is on its way to you. O God. Make the expedition of Osama proceed toward its goal ... We await your orders as to the next stage of the plan," Zarqawi wrote.

An Aug. 8 televised message from bin Laden's overall second-in-command -- Ayman al-Zawahiri - is now viewed as the approval Zarqawi was anticipating. "What you have seen, O Americans, in New York and Washington and the losses you are having in Afghanistan and Iraq, in spite of all the media blackout, are only the losses of the initial clashes ... You will see the horror that will make you forget what you had seen in Vietnam," Zawahiri said.

The al Qaeda official's threat, according to the report, wasn't delivered until the jihad forces were organized and ready to strike.

The GIS report also cites an Aug. 21 message recorded by Zarqawi, which references the next phase of the terrorist jihad. "The [mujahedeen] in Iraq, have, praise be to God, moved the battle from the ground (in Iraq) to the land of the cross."

Zarqawi's message claimed that "[J]ihadist units have been founded in all of Western Europe, to defend the powerless within the nation. For the crimes the Crusaders have committed against the Muslims, they will reap in their own homes, God willing."

A few days later, according to GIS, a doctrinal statement from Zarqawi emerged, which stressed the priority of al Qaeda in Iraq establishing "another base that will export jihad to all parts of the world the same way the mother al Qaeda in Afghanistan was."

'The heart and lair of the Great Satan'

Bodansky's report states that "concrete preparations for the consolidation of Islamist-jihadist springboards against the heart and lair of the Great Satan are being completed -- for Western Europe in the Balkans, for Russian and Eastern Europe in Chechnya, and for the United States in the tri-border area in Latin America."

Widespread anticipation throughout the Muslim world of the Great Ramadan Offensive was being picked up by intelligence analysts in August and then was reinforced by a slew of theological statements -- all buttressing what the GIS report calls "a forthcoming, well-coordinated global onslaught."

The marked increase in the volume of communication, both encrypted and open, exceeded that of the months prior to September 2001, the report states.

Bodansky said there is a growing awareness among Western European intelligence services of the "chatter" and activation of jihadist units, led by veterans of Iraq and Chechnya. In early August 2005 Pakistanis arrested a senior operative called Osama bin Yussaf who had detailed maps of Italian, German and British cities stored in his computer.

Germany faces the challenge of second and third generation immigrants inspired by the idea of a global jihad, the GIS report notes. Such young jihadists often hold down a regular job, have European passports and are valued assets due to their low profile, and easy mobility.

Bodansky also points to the Aug. 23 decree by Islamist rebels in Chechnya establishing an "emergency government." Details of the decree, not previously reported, inidcate that a "war leadership council" was established and would likely "implement the next cycle of terrorist strikes against Russia" as part of the coordinated global attacks.

Hurricane Katrina's message

Terrorist leaders may also have taken the devastation wrought by hurricane Katrina as a symbol that God is pleased with their plans to launch the "Great Ramadan Offensive," according to the GIS report.

"Allah has punished America with winds and water," said one imam quoted in the report. America is under "the curse of the Jews," said another.

"It's clear the jihadists regarded Katrina as a sign from God they're doing the right thing," said Gregory R. Copley, president of The International Strategic Studies Association in Washington, D.C.

In a separate analysis, Christopher Brown, research associate with the Hudson Institute's Transitions to Democracy project, warned of the strategic opening that the hurricane aftermath offers jihadists.

"If this attack is launched soon, the devastation to the American economy alone could easily far exceed that of the September 11th attacks and could be equivalent in terms of economic impact to the detonation of a small nuclear device on American soil," Brown said.

He also suggested that the timing of Zawahiri's past video messages indicates a terrorist attack may be imminent.

His first messages, on Sept. 9 and Nov. 9 of 2004, preceded the Dec. 6, 2004 attack on the U.S. consulate in Jeddah, Saudi Arabia. Feb. 20 and June 17, 2005 video messages by Zawahiri preceded the July 7 series of bombings in London. A third set of messages - on Aug. 4 and Sept. 1 - also creates cause for concern, Brown contends.

"If the pattern that has been outlined holds true," says Brown, "then al Qaeda is very likely about to launch a new major or series of major attacks within the next month."

Copley agreed, telling Cybercast News Service that, "I think Europe is going to be a prime target, but I think there's no question the U.S. is very much on the schedule.

"There will be big things happening over the next few months," he added.

Ramadan, a religious observance which includes a period of fasting, is scheduled according to the Islamic calendar. This year it is scheduled from Oct. 4 to Nov. 2. Muslim soldiers on the battlefield are exempt from Ramadan.
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Don't Ignore Western Europe, Terrorism Expert Warns U.S.

By Walter Pincus

Western Europe is a core recruiting ground for Muslim terrorists that is being overlooked given the U.S. focus on Iraq and the Middle East, according to Francis Fukuyama, academic dean of Johns Hopkins University's Paul H. Nitze School of Advanced International Studies.

The failure of European countries to assimilate their large and growing Muslim populations in the era of globalization has caused an alienation among the young that has created a "hard core for terrorism," Fukuyama said in Washington at a bipartisan policy forum on terrorism and security, sponsored by the New America Foundation.

"Fixing the Middle East is only part of the problem. It is a West European problem, too," Fukuyama said. He pointed out that the leaders of the Sept. 11, 2001, attacks came out of a cell in Hamburg and that most of the extremists participating in the more recent bombings in Spain and England were born in those countries.

Fukuyama's analysis squares with recent CIA conclusions about the importance of Western Europe, where, as one former senior intelligence official put it yesterday, "there are 10 million Muslims . . . that are not integrated into their societies."

Fukuyama called this one area of the war against terrorism in which U.S. and European interests merge and joint cooperation has begun to be productive. The Europeans "need to understand American assimilation" because their approach of "multiculturalism has been a failure," Fukuyama said.

The security and terrorism conference drew more than 100 legislators, academics and former policymakers, who expressed a broad range of views and concerns about extremism and the strategies for confronting it.

University of Chicago Associate Professor Robert A. Pape, author of "Dying to Win," a book based on a study of 460 suicide bombers, told his audience that Osama bin Laden's al Qaeda network decided two years ago to target Western European countries that had allied themselves with the United States in Iraq. Pape said Norwegian intelligence obtained a September 2003 document from a Web site reportedly affiliated with al Qaeda. The document discussed hitting Spain before its elections and, thereafter, the British, the Italians and the Poles, all of whom have had troops in Iraq.

In his book, Pape described the situation, saying: "Every suicide terrorist campaign has had a clear goal that is secular and political: to compel a modern democracy to withdraw military forces from the territory that the terrorists view as their homeland."

Retired Army Col. Lawrence B. Wilkerson, who was the chief of staff of then-Secretary of State Colin L. Powell, described at the conference what he called the "rightful paranoia" that senior Bush administration policymakers have regarding the prospect that terrorists might somehow obtain nuclear, chemical or biological weapons.

"Katrina gives us no confidence," Wilkerson said, in U.S. preparations for a terrorist nuclear explosion in a major city. "I am 10 times more worried about what happens to civil liberties after that attack."

Wilkerson then drew the picture of Bush or a future president forced to act "to satisfy demands of the American people." He said the likely steps after such a dramatic attack would include "closed doors and closed borders . . . no foreign students at all" and would "make the Patriot Act pale," a reference to the post-Sept. 11 law designed to give law enforcement agencies more latitude to investigate would-be terrorists.

Princeton professor G. John Ikenberry criticized the Bush administration's counterterrorism policies, saying that U.S. unilateralism has become a "provocation and unsettling element in the world." His solution is "to rediscover bargaining with key allies."

An opposing view came from Rep. Jim Saxton (R-N.J.), chairman of the House Armed Services subcommittee on terrorism, who expressed strong support for the president's policies and praised the Pentagon's Special Forces as having "done more than any other group" to fight terrorism.

He called for a tougher policy on Iran, a country that he said "promotes radicalism, promotes terrorism." He said the United States should support groups inside and outside Iran that can "spread the cause of freedom" there.


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September 11, 2005 |
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Tape Released: American al Qaeda Member Warns of Attacks

Names Los Angeles and Melbourne as Next Targets

Adam Gadahn is identified as the spokesman in this latest al Qaeda tape. (ABC News)

By BRIAN ROSS

Sept. 11, 2005 — In an apparent Sept. 11 communiqué broadcast on ABC News, an al Qaeda operative threatens new attacks against cities in the US and Australia.

"Yesterday, London and Madrid. Tomorrow, Los Angeles and Melbourne, God willing. At this time, don't count on us demonstrating restraint or compassion," the tape warns. "We are Muslims. We love peace, but peace on our terms, peace as laid down by Islam, not the so-called peace of occupiers and dictators."

American intelligence officials believe the man who appears on the tape to be Adam Gadahn of Orange County, Calif. Last year, Gadahn delivered a similar taped communiqué for al Qaeda. That tape was later deemed authentic.

On the new tape, delivered to ABC News, Gadahn's message contains a very pointed al Qaeda threat against Los Angeles and Melbourne.

In response to the threats against their city, Los Angeles Mayor Antonio Villaraigosa and the city's police department released a statement this morning. They admitted to Los Angeles being a target of terrorism, but said there are no known, credible threats against the city and labeled the tape an instrument of al Qaeda propaganda.

"The statement broadcast this morning on Good Morning America should come as no surprise to anyone. The statement was meant to instill fear, and fear is the most important weapon the terrorists possess."

The taped diatribe lasts 11 minutes. Like past tapes, it appears to include the same graphics and production techniques recognized by U.S. officials as part of al Qaeda's standard propaganda production. In this tape, the speaker levels threats against the U.S. and Great Britain.

"Don't believe the lies of the liars at 1600 Pennsylvania Avenue and 10 Downing Street," Gadahn insists. "They have dispatched your sons and daughters to die lonely deaths in the burning deserts of Iraq and the unforgiving mountains of Afghanistan."

Only a few years ago, Adam Gadahn was a southern California teenager with interests in the environment and heavy metal music.

His family says he converted to Islam at an Orange County mosque. There, officials say Gadahn came under the influence of militants who took him to Pakistan.

He has since emerged as an al Qaeda propaganda tool. His latest message warns Americans an attack is imminent unless the United States stops its operations in Iraq and Afghanistan.

"We love peace, but when the enemy violates that peace or prevents us from achieving it, then we love nothing better than the heat of battle, the echo of explosion, and the slitting of the throats of the infidels," the tape says.

As for the rest of the tape, the young man attempts to dispel any rumors or reports of bin Laden being deceased. He closes his tape by invoking the names of the September 11th hijackers.

"Everyone of us is Mohammed Atta," he says.

ABC News' Chris Isham, David Scott, Gretchen Peters, Krista Kjellman, and Avni Patel contributed to this report.
Snuffysmith
http://www.adnki.com/index_2Level.php?cat=...210065428&par=0

IRAQ: WE ONLY STRIKE CERTAIN SHIITES, SAYS AL-ZARQAWI GROUP

Baghdad, 20 Sept. (AKI) - After declaring war on Shiites in Iraq last week, al-Qaeda in Iraq, the group led by Abu Musab al-Zarqawi, has issued a new statement stating that "not all Shiites are our target." The message, titled "The al-Qaeda organisation in the country of the two rivers makes an exception for some Shiites", has appeared on various Islamic Internet forums, and follows a message on Monday denying that al-Zarqawi threatened Sunnis with death if they vote in the upcoming referendum on the Iraqi constitution, due to take place on October 15.

The latest message says, "In a previous audio message issued by Sheikh Abu Musab al-Zarqawi, he declared total war on Shiites for the massacre perpetrated by the Shiite government of Ibraham al-Jafaari against the Sunnis of Tel Afar. Despite this, it should be stressed that in that speech, al-Zarqawi specified that 'all Shiites who condemn the crimes committed against the Sunnis at Tel Afar and who don't support the occupation will be excluded from attacks by the mujahadeen'. Those groups therefore include three Shiite movements: those of al-Sadr, al-Khalisi and al-Hussani."

Despite announcing that its militants will not strike targets linked to the movement of the Shiite Imam Moqtada al-Sadr and the other two smaller religious groups, the Sunni terror group's declaration of "total war" remains valid for other Shiite groups. The message concludes by saying: "The following groups remain targets for al-Qaeda: Al-Jaafari's Dawa Party, the Supreme Council of the Islamic Revolution (SCIRI), Ahmad Chalabi's National Congress Party and Iyad Allawi's National Accord Party."

It is the first time that al-Zarqawi's group has made a distinction of this kind. For some time al-Sadr has been carrying out his political activity with the Committee of the Sunni Ulema of Baghdad, which is regularly accused by the Shiites of colluding with terrorists.

Al-Zarqawi declared war on the Shiites after a suicide bombing last week which killed more than a hundred people. The bomber drove a minibus packed with explosives into a square in a Shiite area of Baghdad where labourers seeking employment usually go, and blew himself up after luring the men towards the vehicle with promises of work.
Snuffysmith
As the shortcomings of the current approach to terrorism become more apparent, new ideas are starting to emerge, including those that hitherto were considered anathema. One such idea contained in the following article from the LA Times is to look for some form of political dialogue with our adversaries. The European Union is already trying something of this sort in the form of discreet 'Track Two" contact with Hamas and Hizbollah.

Is Al Qaeda Asking To Negotiate?
Los Angeles Times
By Allen J. Zerkin
September 19, 2005

Plan A against terrorism isn't working, but listen closely, there might be a workable Plan B: political engagement.

Isn't it clear by now that the U.S. and its allies are not likely to be able to wipe out Al Qaeda or ensure that we are not attacked again domestically? As the British acknowledged in July, the London attacks were just a matter of when, not if. To be sure, the terrorists can't win this war, but neither can we.

The most serious risk is that Al Qaeda will sooner or later be able to attack us with a biological or nuclear weapon, not merely the conventional bombs used in London and Madrid or the suicide car bombs being used to such gruesome effect in Iraq during the last few days. Long-term strategies to win Muslim hearts and minds - through democratization, public diplomacy and greater economic opportunity - are therefore likely to be a case of too little, too late. Even if, somehow, many are won over, such strategies will have no effect on the recruits who are being drawn to Al Qaeda every day, especially among Sunni populations where U.S. troops are stationed.

So is there a Plan B? The most recent videotaped message from Ayman Zawahiri, Al Qaeda's second-in-command, broadcast Aug. 4, is a reminder that there could be - in the form of some sort of political engagement. Unthinkable? In his message, Zawahiri referred to Osama bin Laden's April 2004 offer of a truce to any European country that made a commitment to stop "attacking Muslims, or intervening in their affairs." European governments immediately dismissed the offer. Why? For starters, because the West believes there is nothing to be negotiated when it comes to Al Qaeda. Terrorist acts are either senseless violence (which means there is nothing to talk about) or part of a plan to destroy our way of life (which is nonnegotiable). As White House spokesman Scott McClellan said, "Terrorists will use any excuse to carry out evil attacks
on innocent human beings."

It's also believed that a truce is impossible because Bin Laden and company will not act in good faith. In the words of former Secretary of State Colin Powell, "How can you make a deal with a terrorist?" And finally, even if we could make a deal with Al Qaeda, we shouldn't - engagement with terrorists would only encourage them. It's time to take a fresh look at this logic.

Does Al Qaeda have nonnegotiable goals? Zawahiri said: "There will be no salvation until you withdraw from our land, stop stealing our oil and resources and end support for infidel, corrupt rulers." Some argue that this is an initial set of demands - that the real goal is imposing Islam on the West.

Maybe. But what if, instead, Al Qaeda's agenda is what its leaders repeatedly say it is: an end to the Western military presence in Muslim lands, to "uncritical political support and military aid" to Israel, and to support of corrupt Middle Eastern regimes. Most scholars of Islam argue that because jihad is a defensive concept, the attacks on us must be understood as retaliation for perceived provocations, and that Al Qaeda's stated agenda - which has been consistent since 1996 - should be taken literally. But can one make a deal with terrorists? The British eventually dealt with the IRA, and the French with the Algerian FLN. A few months ago it was reported that U.S. Army officers negotiated with insurgent leaders in Iraq.

As to whether we should deal with them, there is a legitimate concern, but it's a Catch-22: If aggrieved parties are ignored by an authoritarian government, they often eventually resort to violence, and then if the government is loath to engage them for fear of legitimizing their tactics, the grievances remain and the violence continues. (Think of the American colonists and George III or the early Zionists and the British.)

Sooner or later we may find ourselves having little choice but to seek a truce with Al Qaeda, no matter how much it galls us. And waiting until there are many more American - and European, Egyptian, Saudi, Iraqi - casualties only weakens our position because it will then be clear that Plan A has failed and we are desperate.

Is all this hopelessly naive? Consider this: In the wake of the Beslan terrorist attack, none other than neocon theoretician Richard Pipes called upon Russia's Vladimir Putin to negotiate Chechen sovereignty with those terrorists, on the grounds that the conflict had historical roots (there were real grievances) and because the Chechens had "resorted to terrorism
for the limited objective of independence not [destroying] Russia."

Pipes then tried to distinguish the Russian situation from "America's war with Al Qaeda," asserting that the latter was nonnegotiable because Al Qaeda's attacks, unlike the Chechens', "were unprovoked and had no specific objective. Rather, they were part of a general assault of Islamic extremists bent on destroying non-Islamic civilizations." But Al Qaeda does
feel provoked, and if, as I have suggested, it has limited and specific goals, then Pipes' advice to Putin applies to us.

Some argue that we should just unilaterally change the policies that provoke Al Qaeda. I would argue that if we do, we risk not getting the peace we seek, and we would then have already given away our negotiating leverage. I'm not suggesting that we engage in direct meetings with Al Qaeda, nor that we stop pursuing those who commit or support acts of terror. But, through back channels, we should seek to determine if Bin Laden would withdraw his fatwa against Americans in exchange for certain policy changes, if Al Qaeda would settle for less than its maximum demands and if its far-flung followers would honor a truce.

There is evidence that the answer to all these is yes, but it's inconclusive. With the stakes this high, shouldn't we find out for certain?

ALLEN J. ZERKIN is a research fellow at New York University's Center for Catastrophic Preparedness and Response and an adjunct professor at its Wagner Graduate School of Public Service.
Snuffysmith
http://www.cnsnews.com/ViewSpecialReports....E20050908a.html

Report Warns of Terrorists' 'Great Ramadan Offensive'
By Sherrie Gossett
CNSNews.com Staff Writer
September 08, 2005

(CNSNews.com) - Al Qaeda's plans for a series of spectacular terrorist strikes in October, targeting American interests as well as U.S. allies in Europe and the Middle East and said to be coordinated by Osama bin Laden and his top lieutenant in Iraq - Abu Musab al-Zarqawi -- are the subject of a non-public report issued by terrorism experts this week.

The attacks, planned to coincide with the Muslim observance of Ramadan and dubbed the "Great Ramadan Offensive," are designed to create a "fateful confrontation" with the U.S. and Israeli forces in the Middle East, according to a May 30 letter from Zarqawi to bin Laden. The contents of the letter are referenced in the report written by Yossef Bodansky, the former director of the U.S. Congressional Task Force on Terrorism and Unconventional Warfare.

The Sept. 2 report is accessible only to government officials on the Global Information System (GIS) database. Cybercast News Service obtained the report on the same day as its release. It warns of planned attacks in Western Europe, Russia and perhaps the continental U.S. The specific targets are believed to include airports at Schiphol in the Netherlands and Fiumicino in Italy.

Italy remains on high alert and barricades have been placed around Rome's Colosseum. "Terrorism is coming home," the GIS report quotes one unnamed German senior official. "And it's coming home to those countries whose governments may have believed they were immune from terror because for years they have provided safe haven to notorious Islamic extremists."

An associate of Zarqawi named Abu Abdul Rahman al-Jazaeri, was said to be in Italy, but could not be located by authorities, according to Bodansky, who added that Jazeiri was believed to have recently received from a Zarqawi messenger "the definitive mandate to plan and carry out a major terrorist operation in Italy."

In late August Italy announced that it was at an elevated risk for a terrorist attack. The country expelled 700 suspected militants and arrested 141 others. News organizations reported that locks to the entrances of 49 subway stations had been changed and metal barricades erected around the 2,000-year old Colosseum in Rome.

Piecing it all together

Details of the planned attacks were pieced together from intercepted communications between top al Qaeda leaders in the latter part of August, analysis of what counter- terrorism experts described as a dramatic increase in the volume of communication among jihad forces and the observation of an unprecedented movement of jihadists and messengers around the world apparently delivering instructions.

Zarqawi, linked to numerous bombings and the beheadings of several Western hostages in Iraq, reportedly titled his letter to bin Laden, "A Message from a Soldier to His Commander." According to the GIS report, Zarqawi's letter to bin Laden alluded to "the forthcoming grand offensive comprised of escalation in the Middle East and a series of spectacular terrorist strikes" meant to overshadow the impact of the Sept. 11, 2001 terrorist strikes in New York City and Washington, D.C.

The letter also indicated Zarqawi was expecting bin Laden to approve and authorize the escalation: "I think that the plan for the next stage that was drawn up has reached you or is on its way to you. O God. Make the expedition of Osama proceed toward its goal ... We await your orders as to the next stage of the plan," Zarqawi wrote.

An Aug. 8 televised message from bin Laden's overall second-in-command -- Ayman al-Zawahiri - is now viewed as the approval Zarqawi was anticipating. "What you have seen, O Americans, in New York and Washington and the losses you are having in Afghanistan and Iraq, in spite of all the media blackout, are only the losses of the initial clashes ... You will see the horror that will make you forget what you had seen in Vietnam," Zawahiri said.

The al Qaeda official's threat, according to the report, wasn't delivered until the jihad forces were organized and ready to strike.

The GIS report also cites an Aug. 21 message recorded by Zarqawi, which references the next phase of the terrorist jihad. "The [mujahedeen] in Iraq, have, praise be to God, moved the battle from the ground (in Iraq) to the land of the cross."

Zarqawi's message claimed that "[J]ihadist units have been founded in all of Western Europe, to defend the powerless within the nation. For the crimes the Crusaders have committed against the Muslims, they will reap in their own homes, God willing."

A few days later, according to GIS, a doctrinal statement from Zarqawi emerged, which stressed the priority of al Qaeda in Iraq establishing "another base that will export jihad to all parts of the world the same way the mother al Qaeda in Afghanistan was."

'The heart and lair of the Great Satan'

Bodansky's report states that "concrete preparations for the consolidation of Islamist-jihadist springboards against the heart and lair of the Great Satan are being completed -- for Western Europe in the Balkans, for Russian and Eastern Europe in Chechnya, and for the United States in the tri-border area in Latin America."

Widespread anticipation throughout the Muslim world of the Great Ramadan Offensive was being picked up by intelligence analysts in August and then was reinforced by a slew of theological statements -- all buttressing what the GIS report calls "a forthcoming, well-coordinated global onslaught."

The marked increase in the volume of communication, both encrypted and open, exceeded that of the months prior to September 2001, the report states.

Bodansky said there is a growing awareness among Western European intelligence services of the "chatter" and activation of jihadist units, led by veterans of Iraq and Chechnya. In early August 2005 Pakistanis arrested a senior operative called Osama bin Yussaf who had detailed maps of Italian, German and British cities stored in his computer.

Germany faces the challenge of second and third generation immigrants inspired by the idea of a global jihad, the GIS report notes. Such young jihadists often hold down a regular job, have European passports and are valued assets due to their low profile, and easy mobility.

Bodansky also points to the Aug. 23 decree by Islamist rebels in Chechnya establishing an "emergency government." Details of the decree, not previously reported, inidcate that a "war leadership council" was established and would likely "implement the next cycle of terrorist strikes against Russia" as part of the coordinated global attacks.

Hurricane Katrina's message

Terrorist leaders may also have taken the devastation wrought by hurricane Katrina as a symbol that God is pleased with their plans to launch the "Great Ramadan Offensive," according to the GIS report.

"Allah has punished America with winds and water," said one imam quoted in the report. America is under "the curse of the Jews," said another.

"It's clear the jihadists regarded Katrina as a sign from God they're doing the right thing," said Gregory R. Copley, president of The International Strategic Studies Association in Washington, D.C.

In a separate analysis, Christopher Brown, research associate with the Hudson Institute's Transitions to Democracy project, warned of the strategic opening that the hurricane aftermath offers jihadists.

"If this attack is launched soon, the devastation to the American economy alone could easily far exceed that of the September 11th attacks and could be equivalent in terms of economic impact to the detonation of a small nuclear device on American soil," Brown said.

He also suggested that the timing of Zawahiri's past video messages indicates a terrorist attack may be imminent.

His first messages, on Sept. 9 and Nov. 9 of 2004, preceded the Dec. 6, 2004 attack on the U.S. consulate in Jeddah, Saudi Arabia. Feb. 20 and June 17, 2005 video messages by Zawahiri preceded the July 7 series of bombings in London. A third set of messages - on Aug. 4 and Sept. 1 - also creates cause for concern, Brown contends.

"If the pattern that has been outlined holds true," says Brown, "then al Qaeda is very likely about to launch a new major or series of major attacks within the next month."

Copley agreed, telling Cybercast News Service that, "I think Europe is going to be a prime target, but I think there's no question the U.S. is very much on the schedule.

"There will be big things happening over the next few months," he added.

Ramadan, a religious observance which includes a period of fasting, is scheduled according to the Islamic calendar. This year it is scheduled from Oct. 4 to Nov. 2. Muslim soldiers on the battlefield are exempt from Ramadan.
Snuffysmith
http://www.washingtonpost.com/wp-dyn/conte...5092601613.html

Purported al Qaeda Newscast Debuts on Internet
Masked Anchorman Lauds Gaza Pullout, Iraq Attacks, Hurricane Katrina

By Daniel Williams
Washington Post Foreign Service
Tuesday, September 27, 2005; Page A16

ROME, Sept. 26 -- An Internet video newscast called the Voice of the Caliphate was broadcast for the first time on Monday, purporting to be a production of al Qaeda and featuring an anchorman who wore a black ski mask and an ammunition belt.

The anchorman, who said the report would appear once a week, presented news about the Gaza Strip and Iraq and expressed happiness about recent hurricanes in the United States. A copy of the Koran, the Muslim holy book, was placed by his right hand and a rifle affixed to a tripod was pointed at the camera.


The origins of the broadcast could not be immediately verified. If the program was indeed an al Qaeda production, it would mark a change in how the group uses the Internet to spread its messages and propaganda. Direct dissemination would avoid editing or censorship by television networks, many of which usually air only excerpts of the group's statements and avoid showing gruesome images of killings.

The broadcast was first reported by the Italian Adnkonos news agency from Dubai. The 16-minute production was available on Italian newspaper Web sites.

The lead segment recounted Israel's withdrawal from the Gaza Strip, which the narrator proclaimed as a "great victory," while showing Palestinian Authority Prime Minister Ahmed Qureia walking and talking among celebrating compatriots.

That was followed by a repeat of a pledge on Sept. 14 by Abu Musab Zarqawi, the leader of al Qaeda in Iraq, to wage all-out war on Iraq's Shiite Muslims. An image of Zarqawi, a Jordanian-born Sunni Muslim, remained on the screen for about half the broadcast.

The masked announcer also reported that a group called the Islamic Army in Iraq claimed to have launched chemical-armed rockets at American forces in Baghdad. A video clip showed five rockets fired in succession from behind a sand berm as an off-screen voice yelled "God is great" in Arabic. The Islamic Army asserted responsibility last year for the killing of Enzo Baldoni, an Italian journalist who had been kidnapped in Iraq.

A commercial break of sorts followed, which previewed a movie, "Total Jihad," directed by Mousslim Mouwaheed. The ad was in English, suggesting that the target audience might be Muslims living in Britain and the United States.

The final segment was about Hurricane Katrina. "The whole Muslim world was filled with joy" at the disaster, the anchorman said. He went on to say that President Bush was "completely humiliated by his obvious incapacity to face the wrath of God, who battered New Orleans, city of homosexuals." Hurricane Ophelia's brush with North Carolina was also mentioned.

The name of the broadcast refers to the Islamic empire that emerged following the death of the prophet Muhammad in the 7th century, eventually stretching from Turkey to Spain and creating an era of Islamic influence that bin Laden has said Muslims should reestablish. According to credits following the broadcast, it was produced by the Global Islamic Media Front.

Numerous radical Islamic organizations, some claiming affiliation with al Qaeda, spread information, including photos and videos, by the Internet. Some evade ongoing efforts to shut them down by disguising their presence within innocuous Web sites.



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Snuffysmith
Analysis: Bin Laden Hunt Dwindling Priority
http://www.spacewar.com/news/terrorwar-05zzzb.html

Washington (UPI) Sep 29, 2005 - Good news for Osama bin Laden. If U.S. troops withdraw from Afghanistan in 2006 as the Bush administration hopes the hunt for the terrorist mastermind of 9/11 that has gone on unsuccessfully for the past four years will cease to be a top priority and will effectively end as a cold case.
Snuffysmith
Israel has specific intelligence of al Qaeda plans to kidnap Israelis over the High Holidays in Egypt and Sinai

October 1, 2005, 3:24 PM (GMT+02:00)

Head of Israel’s counter-terror desk Danny Ardity repeats strongest possible warning against travel to Sinai and urges any Israelis already in Egypt to leave without delay. The Jewish High Holidays begin Monday, Oct. 4. A trickle of Israeli tourists continued to cross the Taba terminal into Sinai. Many have returned home. Arditi added kidnap threats are also outstanding from Hizballah and Palestinian terrorist groups. they may well collaborate with al Qaeda in Sinai for Israeli abductions. Egyptian security forces have not been able to dislodge al Qaeda's base of operations in the central Sinai mountains which launched two terrorist attacks in the last year.
Snuffysmith
http://www.debka.com/article.php?aid=1091

Al Qaeda in Sinai Has Advanced to Striking Range of the Suez Canal, Israel and Jordan

DEBKAfile Exclusive Report

October 3, 2005, 10:18 AM (GMT+02:00)



The emphatic advisory to Israeli travelers to stay clear of their favorite Sinai resorts for this year’s High Holidays reflects incoming intelligence on the broadening threat posed by al Qaeda today. Since the Taba attacks exactly a year ago, the Islamist terrorist organization has planted a daunting infrastructure amid the inaccessible peaks of the strategic desert peninsula. Egyptian attempts to access their strongholds have been thrown back.

DEBKAfile’s intelligence sources report the following developments.

Al Qaeda has established local terror networks in northern Sinai – centering on el Arish, as well as strongholds in the inaccessible central mountains of the peninsula around Jebel Hillal. In all, the jihadists control roughly one-fifth of Sinai total area (61,000sq. km or 23,500sq. miles). Egyptian forces of law and order have learned not to venture into these bastions or into the areas commanded by age-old smuggler clans who currently collaborate with al Qaeda. This leaves about half of the forbidding desert peninsula inaccessible to Egyptian security forces. Today, they can only claim to control the main roads routes fringing the vast desert expanse: from Ras Sudeir down to Sharm el Sheikh along the Suez Canal and Suez Gulf shores; from the Suez Canal east to El Arish along the Mediterranean shore and from the Sharm el-Sheikh resort center north along the Gulf of Aqaba to Taba and the Israeli port of Eilat.

The spectacular, biblical landscape conceals terrorist bomb traps and roadside devices. Gunmen armed with RPG and anti-tank weapons lurk behind huge rocks in wait for any Egyptian police or security unit daring to step off a main road into one of the dry valleys dissecting the forbidding peaks.

The danger increases with the altitude. Al Qaeda has joined up with rebellious Bedouin and Palestinians to recreate the Tora Bora of Afghanistan, where Osama bin Laden’s fighters fought US and Afghan forces in November 2001.

DEBKAfile’s counter-terror sources describe al Qaeda’s Sinai 2005 bastion as better fortified than the original Tora Bora. It is peopled with more fighters and is even more impregnable. The paths leading up to peaks – some as tall as 7,500 ft - are barricaded by huge rocks under which explosive snares are concealed. Attempts to move the rocks would set off explosions and start an avalanche. Interspersed among the natural barriers are bomb traps and anti-personnel and anti-tank mines. The caves perforating the slopes are firing positions - some armed with mortars and heavy machine guns.

The Egyptian have tried large-scale assaults on the al Qaeda mountain fastnesses and failed. They were forced to retreat with heavy casualties.

According to DEBKAfile’s military experts, the only way for Egypt to wrest mastery of the Sinai heartland from the terrorists is by a combined aerial bombardment coupled with helicopter landings of at least two special forces brigades.

This in present circumstances is not feasible because -

1. The 1979 Egyptian-Israeli peace treaty demilitarizing Sinai precludes Egyptian air force operations. In theory, Cairo can approach Jerusalem for permission, but in practice this would expose the Mubarak government to widespread Muslim opprobrium for collaborating with the Jewish state in the war against Islamic terror.

2. Egyptian intelligence does not have an exact count of the anti-air missiles in al Qaeda’s hands. The passage of a quantity of these weapons from Sinai to the Gaza Strip leads Egyptian intelligence to deduce a fairly sizeable number – enough to cause havoc with a helicopter commando drop.

3. Al Qaeda’s smuggling routes crisscross Sinai day and night, freely plied by fighters, weapons, explosives and food. These routes exploit the peninsula’s exceptional geography to run between Yemen, Saudi Arabia, Sudan, Egypt, Jordan, Iraq and of late the Gaza Strip.

The Egyptians despite every effort have not been able to close down a single smuggling route.

This fact ties in with the kidnap alert for Israeli travelers.

Should al Qaeda succeed in abducting an Israeli, it has the organization to conceal its victim for a long period in its Sinai mountain bastion or transport him or her to another Arab country, including Iraq.

4. That al Qaeda has established a presence in the Gaza Strip is no longer a matter of speculation. Today, Israeli military intelligence AMAN and the Shin Beit are taking the new manifestation of Al Qaeda-Palestine as an offshoot of Al Qaeda-Sinai with the utmost seriousness. Foreign terrorists have been detected entering the Gaza Strip, welcomed and integrated in to the logistical infrastructures of Hizballah, Hamas, Jihad Islami and the Popular Fronts.

This is not a one-way road. Elements of Hizballah, Hamas and Jihad Islami have been heading out of Gaza into Sinai and given the use of al Qaeda’s logistical facilities to strike unprotected Israeli holidaymakers at the Sinai resorts.

The DEBKAfile Exclusive Map attached to this article (first displaced in DEBKA-Net-Weekly) illustrates the broad strategic thinking behind al Qaeda’s Sinai deployment. It is not just there to nab Israeli vacationers refusing to heed warnings; its terrorist units are within striking distance of the Hashemite Kingdom of Jordan, the Gulf of Aqaba, the Suez Canal and the Egyptian heartland, as well providing terrorist depth for wars in Iraq and Israel.
Snuffysmith
http://iht.com/articles/2005/10/07/news/qaeda.php



Qaeda No. 2 warns his chief in Iraq
By Douglas Jehl and Thom Shanker The New York Times

SATURDAY, OCTOBER 8, 2005


WASHINGTON The second-ranking leader of Al Qaeda has warned the top militant in Iraq that attacks on civilians and videotaped executions committed by his followers threaten to jeopardize the broader extremist cause, a senior U.S. official says.

The warning, from Ayman al-Zawahiri to Abu Musab al-Zarqawi, was in a 6,000-word letter, dated early in July, that was obtained by U.S. forces conducting counterterrorism operations in Iraq, the official said in a briefing.

Zawahiri said that Iraq had become "the place for the greatest battle of Islam in this era" but that Zarqawi's forces should keep in mind that it was only a stepping stone toward a broader victory for militant Islam across the Middle East.

"The mujahedeen must not have their mission end with the expulsion of the Americans from Iraq, and then lay down their weapons, and silence the fighting zeal," Zawahiri said in the letter, according to a partial translation provided by the official, who declined to provide verbatim translations of anything more than three sentences from the document. Under the ground rules for the briefing, the official cannot be identified.

The official said Zawahiri had also warned that Zarqawi's forces should concentrate their attacks on Americans rather than on Iraqi civilians, and should refrain from the kind of gruesome beheadings and other executions that have been posted on Al Qaeda Web sites.

The American official would not say when or how U.S. forces obtained the communication, or whether it was in electronic or printed form. But the official said he had "the highest confidence of its authenticity," which he said had been verified by "multiple sources over an extended period of time."

WASHINGTON The second-ranking leader of Al Qaeda has warned the top militant in Iraq that attacks on civilians and videotaped executions committed by his followers threaten to jeopardize the broader extremist cause, a senior U.S. official says.

The warning, from Ayman al-Zawahiri to Abu Musab al-Zarqawi, was in a 6,000-word letter, dated early in July, that was obtained by U.S. forces conducting counterterrorism operations in Iraq, the official said in a briefing.

Zawahiri said that Iraq had become "the place for the greatest battle of Islam in this era" but that Zarqawi's forces should keep in mind that it was only a stepping stone toward a broader victory for militant Islam across the Middle East.

"The mujahedeen must not have their mission end with the expulsion of the Americans from Iraq, and then lay down their weapons, and silence the fighting zeal," Zawahiri said in the letter, according to a partial translation provided by the official, who declined to provide verbatim translations of anything more than three sentences from the document. Under the ground rules for the briefing, the official cannot be identified.

The official said Zawahiri had also warned that Zarqawi's forces should concentrate their attacks on Americans rather than on Iraqi civilians, and should refrain from the kind of gruesome beheadings and other executions that have been posted on Al Qaeda Web sites.

The American official would not say when or how U.S. forces obtained the communication, or whether it was in electronic or printed form. But the official said he had "the highest confidence of its authenticity," which he said had been verified by "multiple sources over an extended period of time."

WASHINGTON The second-ranking leader of Al Qaeda has warned the top militant in Iraq that attacks on civilians and videotaped executions committed by his followers threaten to jeopardize the broader extremist cause, a senior U.S. official says.

The warning, from Ayman al-Zawahiri to Abu Musab al-Zarqawi, was in a 6,000-word letter, dated early in July, that was obtained by U.S. forces conducting counterterrorism operations in Iraq, the official said in a briefing.

Zawahiri said that Iraq had become "the place for the greatest battle of Islam in this era" but that Zarqawi's forces should keep in mind that it was only a stepping stone toward a broader victory for militant Islam across the Middle East.

"The mujahedeen must not have their mission end with the expulsion of the Americans from Iraq, and then lay down their weapons, and silence the fighting zeal," Zawahiri said in the letter, according to a partial translation provided by the official, who declined to provide verbatim translations of anything more than three sentences from the document. Under the ground rules for the briefing, the official cannot be identified.

The official said Zawahiri had also warned that Zarqawi's forces should concentrate their attacks on Americans rather than on Iraqi civilians, and should refrain from the kind of gruesome beheadings and other executions that have been posted on Al Qaeda Web sites.

The American official would not say when or how U.S. forces obtained the communication, or whether it was in electronic or printed form. But the official said he had "the highest confidence of its authenticity," which he said had been verified by "multiple sources over an extended period of time."

WASHINGTON The second-ranking leader of Al Qaeda has warned the top militant in Iraq that attacks on civilians and videotaped executions committed by his followers threaten to jeopardize the broader extremist cause, a senior U.S. official says.

The warning, from Ayman al-Zawahiri to Abu Musab al-Zarqawi, was in a 6,000-word letter, dated early in July, that was obtained by U.S. forces conducting counterterrorism operations in Iraq, the official said in a briefing.

Zawahiri said that Iraq had become "the place for the greatest battle of Islam in this era" but that Zarqawi's forces should keep in mind that it was only a stepping stone toward a broader victory for militant Islam across the Middle East.

"The mujahedeen must not have their mission end with the expulsion of the Americans from Iraq, and then lay down their weapons, and silence the fighting zeal," Zawahiri said in the letter, according to a partial translation provided by the official, who declined to provide verbatim translations of anything more than three sentences from the document. Under the ground rules for the briefing, the official cannot be identified.

The official said Zawahiri had also warned that Zarqawi's forces should concentrate their attacks on Americans rather than on Iraqi civilians, and should refrain from the kind of gruesome beheadings and other executions that have been posted on Al Qaeda Web sites.

The American official would not say when or how U.S. forces obtained the communication, or whether it was in electronic or printed form. But the official said he had "the highest confidence of its authenticity," which he said had been verified by "multiple sources over an extended period of time."
Snuffysmith
http://www.nytimes.com/2005/10/07/politics/07zarqawi.html

Al Qaeda Tells Ally in Iraq to Strive for Global Goals

By DOUGLAS JEHL and THOM SHANKER
Published: October 7, 2005

WASHINGTON, Oct. 6 - The second-ranking leader of Al Qaeda has warned the top militant in Iraq that attacks on civilians and videotaped executions committed by his followers threaten to jeopardize the broader extremist cause, a senior United States official said Thursday.

The warning, from Ayman al-Zawahiri to Abu Musab al-Zarqawi, was spelled out in a 6,000-word letter, dated early in July, that was obtained by American forces conducting counterterrorism operations in Iraq, the official said in a briefing.

Mr. Zawahiri said that Iraq had become "the place for the greatest battle of Islam in this era," but that Mr. Zarqawi's forces should keep in mind that it was only a stepping stone toward a broader victory for militant Islam across the Middle East.

"The mujahedeen must not have their mission end with the expulsion of the Americans from Iraq, and then lay down their weapons, and silence the fighting zeal," Mr. Zawahiri said in the letter, according to a partial translation provided by the official, who declined to provide verbatim translations of anything more than three sentences from the document. Under the ground rules for the briefing, the official cannot be identified.

The official said Mr. Zawahiri also warned that Mr. Zarqawi's forces should concentrate their attacks on Americans rather than on Iraqi civilians, and should refrain from the kind of gruesome beheadings and other executions that have been posted on Qaeda Web sites. Those executions have been condemned in parts of the Muslim world as violating tenets of the faith.

The official said the letter was made public on Thursday after the government learned that CBS News and NBC News were preparing broadcasts based on partial descriptions of its contents.

The official would not say when or how American forces had obtained the communication, or whether it was in electronic or printed form. But he said he had "the highest confidence of its authenticity," which he said had been verified by "multiple sources over an extended period of time."

The letter outlines what the official described as a comprehensive and chilling strategic vision for Qaeda.

It includes a four-stage battle plan, beginning with the American military's expulsion, followed by the establishment of a militant Islamic caliphate across Iraq before moving to Syria, Lebanon and Egypt. The final step would be a battle against Israel.

Confirmation of the letter's existence came on a day that President Bush delivered a major speech on terrorism, but the official said the decision to disclose the letter was made independently of the speech.

The letter provides the most significant glimpse into the relationship between Mr. Zarqawi, the self-described leader of the group Al Qaeda in Mesopotamia, and the original leaders of the terrorist movement since a communication sent by Mr. Zarqawi was intercepted in early 2004.

Mr. Zawahiri is considered second only to Osama bin Laden in Al Qaeda's hierarchy, but the letter makes no mention of Mr. bin Laden, who is believed to be hiding in the Afghanistan-Pakistan border region.

Mr. Zarqawi, almost unknown to American intelligence until the Sept. 11, 2001, attacks, has emerged as by far the most active and dangerous of the Islamic militants waging campaigns against the United States.

The letter represents the first clear indication of concern among Qaeda leaders about the tactics used by Mr. Zarqawi and his followers in Iraq, and how these violent methods might undermine popular support for Al Qaeda's cause.

The letter states that even Mr. Zarqawi's admirers among Muslim commentators had questioned the wisdom of attacks by the predominantly Sunni Arab insurgents against Iraq's majority Shiite population, and it noted that half the battle against the Americans was played out in the media.

In addition, Mr. Zawahiri reminded Mr. Zarqawi that there were other, less grisly methods of killing captives than beheadings, and said execution by gunfire would be sufficient.

Although he urged less violent tactics to establish Al Qaeda's goals in Iraq, Mr. Zawahiri reiterated the disdain previously voiced by the Sunni-dominated terrorist organization against Shiites. He accused the Shiites of cooperating with the enemies of Islam and predicted a collision between Sunnis and Shiites in the Sunni-dominated caliphate he wishes to establish. The original caliphs were secular and religious leaders of Islam who succeeded the Prophet Muhammad.

The American official said the letter's overall tone was polite, but there was no doubt that Mr. Zawahiri regarded himself as the superior in their relationship. Still, the letter sought a small sum of money as a contribution to Qaeda operations.

The official said the letter seemed to suggest that the men were not in close, regular contact. Among other things, Mr. Zawahiri expressed a desire for more detailed information about the state of the insurgency in Iraq, and of its impact on Iraqis and American forces.

The official said that he did not believe that Mr. Zawahiri had intended the letter to become public and noted that it included sentiments that had not previously appeared on Qaeda Web sites or other communications from Mr. bin Laden, Mr. Zawahiri or other top leaders.
Snuffysmith
--------------------------------------------------------------------------------
The Pentagon releases an internal al Qaeda letter

October 7, 2005, 1:35 PM (GMT+02:00)

The letter is from Al Qaeda No. 2 Ayman al Zahawri to Iraq chief Abu Musab al-Zarqawi urging the latter to avoid bombing mosques and slaughtering hostages to avoid alienating the masses. He also asked al Zarqawi for financial support, according to Pentagon spokesman Bryan Whitman. He did not say where, when or how the letter was obtained but only that the Pentagon is sure it is authentic and confirms al Qaeda’s plan to drive the US out of Iraq and create an Islamic state there.

Copyright 2000-2005 DEBKAfile. All Rights Reserved.
Snuffysmith
http://news.ft.com/cms/s/627a7252-3769-11d...000e2511c8.html


Third man detained in connection with terror plot
By The New York Times

A third man has been detained in a suspected plot to detonate explosives on the city’s subway system, a government official said today, as police officers searched passengers’ bags on subways, buses and ferries.


Authorities are holding Al Qaeda operatives in connection with the suspected plot, although no details were available on who they are, where they were detained or what agency captured them, said the government official, who spoke on the condition of anonymity. The official said the person who provided the information about the men had undergone explosives training with them at an Al Qaeda camp in Afghanistan.

Security in and around the city’s transit network was sharply increased Thursday after city officials announced that they had been notified by federal authorities in Washington of a terrorist threat that for the first time specified the city’s transit system.

The measures were made public Thursday by Mayor Michael R. Bloomberg, along with Police Commissioner Raymond W. Kelly and the head of the New York F.B.I. office, Mark J. Mershon, after an American military operation with the C.I.A. and the F.B.I. in Iraq, according to law enforcement officials. The operation, carried out this week, was aimed at disrupting the threat, the officials said.

Some officials in Washington have played down the nature of the threat. While not entirely dismissing it, a spokesman for the Department of Homeland Security described it as “specific yet noncredible,” adding that the intelligence community had concluded that the information was of “doubtful credibility.”

Today in Washington, President Bush said the city had decided on its own to inform the public about the threats.

”Our job is to gather intelligence and pass it on to local authorities,” Mr. Bush told reporters in a White House picture-taking session with Prime Minister Ferenc Gyurcsany of Hungary. “And they make the judgments necessary to respond. The level of cooperation between the federal government and the local government is getting better and better. And part of that level of cooperation is the ability to pass information on. And we did, and they responded.”

When asked whether he thought New York officials had overreacted, the president demurred. “I think they took the information we gave and made the judgments they thought were necessary,” he said. “And the American people have got to know that, one, we’re collecting information and sharing it with local authorities on a timely basis. And that’s important.”

Earlier today, the White House spokesman Scott McClellan told reporters: “In this case, we notified New York City officials early on of the intelligence information that we had received. And while it is specific, you heard our Homeland Security officials say it is of doubtful credibility. It is something we continue to analyze.”

But in an afternoon news conference in New York, Mr. Bloomberg said he believed he had made the right decision by informing the public about the possibility of a terrorist attack.

”If I’m going to make a mistake, you can rest assured it’s going to be on the side of being cautious,” he said. “If it happened again, I would make exactly the same decision.”

Mr. Kelly agreed, saying: “I can’t think of anything other than what could have been done than what we proceeded to do.”

Asked about the disagreement over how seriously to take the threat, the mayor said that intelligence information is rarely clear cut.

”You’ll never get a consensus in the intelligence community on any one thing,” he said. “In the end, you will find that not everyone’s on the same page.”

At subway stations today, riders said they were generally unworried about the latest warning.

”I’m a fourth-generation New Yorker,” said Alexandra Noya, 35, as she got off a train at Columbus Circle. “If it’s going to happen, it’s going to happen.” The warning from the mayor and police commissioner, she said, “didn’t deter me.”

Jimmy George, 65, from Teaneck, N.J., said he doubted the seriousness of the threat. Mr. George said he believed the timing was related to the coming New York City mayoral election.

”Is it time to wag the dog?” he said. “It’s election time. It seems during election times there’s always some type of threat.”

Bradford Ellis, who turned 35 today, said the threat was likely real, but said he was comfortable taking his chances riding the train.

”Everybody was calling me today, telling me I shouldn’t get on the subway because it’s my birthday,” he said. “But you can’t let it affect you. I think it’s a possible threat, but I don’t live my life on possibilities.”

At the Times Square station, an M.T.A. conductor, Ray Volsario, said he was not told about the threat by supervisors, and learned about it from television news.

”They don’t tell us anything,” he said. “We’re supposed to be the eyes and ears of the subway system - why are we the last to know?”

A portion of Penn Station was evacuated for about two hours this morning after police responded to reports about a suspicious package and a possibly toxic substance inside a bottle. Mr. Kelly, the police commissioner, said the package turned out to be harmless litter. The bottle, said Mr. Kelly, appeared to be a “Drain-O type” fluid.

”It appears to be a prank,” said Mr. Kelly. Authorities took away the bottle to analyze the liquid, he said.

Information about the threat, came to light last weekend from an intelligence source who told federal authorities that the three men in Iraq had planned to meet with other operatives in New York, said several law enforcement officials who spoke on the condition of anonymity.

One official said the group would number about a dozen. Another official said the total was closer to 20 people involved. The men planned to use strollers, briefcases and packages to hide a number of bombs that they planned to detonate on the subways.

“It was a conspiracy involving more than a dozen people aimed at delivering a number of devices into the subway,” one of the officials said.

One official said the information suggested an attack could happen as early as today; another pointed to the middle of the month.

”This is a piece of information that came in as a result of operations that go on all the time, and to corroborate that information or not we had to go after certain people,” one official said.

Mr. Mershon said: “F.B.I. agents and other U.S. government personnel continue to work around the clock to fully resolve this particular threat. Thus far, there is nothing that has surfaced in that investigation or those enforcement actions which has corroborated an actual threat to the city.”

Mayor Bloomberg seemed to try to inform New Yorkers without alarming them. He said that while the threat was not corroborated, it was specific enough to warrant an immediate and overwhelming response.

”It was more specific as to target; it was more specific as to timing, and some of the sources had more information that would lead one to believe that it was not the kind of thing that appears in the intelligence community every day,” Mr. Bloomberg said.

The mayor urged New Yorkers to continue riding the subways, as he said he would, but cautioned them to be watchful, saying several times, “If you see something, say something.”

As he spoke, thousands of city police officers were swarming the transit system. An officer will be assigned to each subway station, and Commissioner Kelly said the Police Department is significantly stepping up uniformed and plainclothes patrols, increasing sweeps through subway cars and posting officers at each subway tunnel that passes beneath city waterways. The department’s heavily armed “Hercules teams” and other specialized units will also focus on the transit system, he said.

Bag searches will also be significantly increased, the commissioner said, with a focus on briefcases, baby strollers, luggage and other packages and containers, and he asked subway riders to curtail their use. The searches will take place not only on the subways, but also on buses and ferries, and the Police Department has coordinated the increased scrutiny with the Port Authority of New York and New Jersey, New Jersey Transit, the Metropolitan Transportation Authority and Amtrak. Mr. Kelly used narcotics detectives from Brooklyn and Queens and other investigators from the department’s Warrant Division to increase security in the subways. Officers mobilized at the Brooklyn Navy Yard.

On Thursday, Mr. Bloomberg, Mr. Kelly and Mr. Mershon declined to discuss the events in Iraq, or where they had occurred, saying that it was classified.

Counterterrorism officials in Washington said the information received this week was highly specific, including details about the possible use of suitcase bombs and explosives hidden in strollers. That information, along with the more general concern that terrorists might stage an attack modeled on the July bombings in London, prompted immediate concern, the officials said.

On an average weekday, an estimated 4.7 million rides are taken on New York’s subway system, which has 468 stations.

Russ Knocke, a spokesman for Homeland Security, said the credibility of the threat was still to be determined.

He said Homeland Security “received intelligence information regarding a specific but noncredible threat to the New York City subway system.”

Mr. Knocke said Homeland Security shared the information “early on with state and local authorities in New York,” adding, “There are no plans to alter the national threat level or the threat level in New York City.”

He would not say any more about the content of the threat or the origin of the information.

Paul J. Browne, the Police Department’s deputy commissioner of public information, would not discuss whether the source information suggested that operatives were in New York. He would say only, “We’re looking at all aspects of this case.”

Since the Sept. 11 terrorist attacks, city and national law enforcement authorities have at times reacted differently to similar threat information. In part, this is because of the varying roles that different agencies play. The New York Police Department, for example, is responsible for protecting the city and its subways and therefore is more likely to act quickly. The F.B.I.’s prime antiterrorism mission, on the other hand, is thwarting plots and apprehending any suspected terrorists - a task that is almost always complicated by information becoming public. But on Thursday, city and F.B.I. officials in New York stood side by side and seemed to present a similar message. Officials from Homeland Security did not take part in the briefing.

Of the information from Iraq, one official said: “Suffice it to say it was credible enough for us to be working it very hard and very diligently literally around the clock and around the world. Sometimes it looks incredibly detailed, and then it washes out into nothing, and sometimes pretty vague in nature and it turns into something real. You can’t know until you go through the process, and we’re going through the process.”

William A. Morange, the transportation authority’s security director and a member of a citywide counterterrorism task force, was informed several days ago about the threat, said Tom Kelly, a spokesman.

”We were kept well apprised of all the developments since earlier this week,” Mr. Kelly said.

The Police Department also put into effect a broad range of measures aimed at stepping up security around the city that did not address the specific threat, but were aimed at tightening the city’s security cordon. They included increased truck searches on East River crossings and banning trucks from the Brooklyn Bridge.

The department will also increase the use of radiation detectors, and detectives from the department’s Intelligence Division will check parking lots and garages in Manhattan and in other areas of the city.

Reporting for this article was contributed by David Johnston, Eric Lipton and Eric Lichtblau, in Washington, and Sewell Chan, Kareem Fahim and Timothy Williams, in New York.

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