Terror fears put squeeze on ships in Asian strait
Malaysian commandos have stormed and recaptured a freighter after a 17-hour sea chase in the Strait of Malacca, maritime authorities said Wednesday, a dramatic development in a waterway where insurers and ship owners are on a collision course.
http://www.iht.com/articles/2005/08/24/business/ships.php

For Africa, a godsend in cellphones
On a continent where some remote villages still communicate by beating drums, cellphones are a technological revolution akin to television in the 1940s in the United States.
http://www.iht.com/articles/2005/08/24/bus...s/africatel.php

Recent air crashes highlight safety differences
The cluster of accidents, with their total death toll of more than 320, does not mean that it has suddenly become a lot more dangerous to fly, aviation experts say.
http://www.iht.com/articles/2005/08/24/news/crash.php

Hunt for the big fish becomes a race
In one of the world's more surprising mysteries, nobody really knows which is the biggest species of fish lurking in the waters of the Mekong or the Amazon.
http://www.iht.com/articles/2005/08/24/news/fish.php

How to avoid a third intifada
Israel must ensure that its evacuation from Gaza is only a prelude to West Bank withdrawal.
http://www.iht.com/articles/2005/08/24/news/edbishara.php

China: A maverick dares to challenge the Party line
No one living in China is more daring than the maverick writer Yu Jie.
http://www.iht.com/articles/2005/08/24/opinion/edmirsky.php

Make up with Japan
Beijing and Tokyo must overcome their mutual suspicion and learn to live with each other.
http://www.iht.com/articles/2005/08/24/opinion/edwang.php

Mayor's aim for Athens: 'Friendlier and greener'
Since her election in 2002 with the largest majority in the history of modern Greece and the slogan "I Will Do My Best," Mayor Dora Bakoyannis has emerged as a formidable national figure.
http://www.iht.com/articles/2005/08/21/news/mayor13.php

Indian nuptials, U.S.-style
Purely arranged marriage has morphed into a new culture of what might be called "assisted" marriage.
http://www.iht.com/articles/2005/08/22/news/marriage.php

An itsy-bitsy definition of a Korean 'amenity'
It seemed like a good idea, a surefire way to catapult this beach into the ranks of Bali and Waikiki: a 10 percent discount for anyone in a bikini.
http://www.iht.com/articles/2005/08/23/news/beach.php

'Biobandage' test aids burn victims
Using human fetal cells, Swiss scientists have developed a new type of "biological bandage" for severe burns that appears to dramatically speed and improve the healing process.
http://www.iht.com/articles/2005/08/17/news/stem.php

http://www.wpherald.com/storyview.php?Stor...24-105209-1321r

Arab Press Roundup: Criticism of Iraq's constitution
By UNITED PRESS INTERNATIONAL
Published August 24, 2005


AMMAN, Jordan -- Arab newspapers Wednesday commented on Iraq's new draft constitution, with many criticizing it for various reasons.

Egypt's semi-official al-Gomhuriya daily asked in its editorial whether Iraqi leaders can resolve their deep differences over the draft charter. The mass-circulation paper said that while endorsing a new constitution would achieve the country's interests and may bring democratic and political reforms, it warned against rushing into finalizing the document. It argued that by rushing into meeting its deadline earlier this week, the leaders had still not resolved substantive differences. It warned that hastening to finalize the draft constitution on a tight schedule while the different forces hold on to their demands could delay this step indefinitely. It said that rushing into endorsing a draft charter "in the eleventh hour will have dangerous results," adding it could "open the door to more violence and bloodshed, taking apart what is left of the political and constitutional institutions."


--

The English-language Bahrain Tribune said Iraq's "political picture that has emerged after weeks of wrangling is far from satisfactory,"

The paper says the Sunnis were concerned the new draft constitution would divide the country.

The pro-government daily opined that the "root of the problem lies in the violence-marred and U.S.-sponsored January elections" that were boycotted by the Arab Sunnis, or 20 percent of the population, and were now politically weak. However, the paper insisted, the Sunni support was vital for ending the growing insurgency, adding their fear was justified in losing out in a federal state envisioned by the country's Shiites and Kurds. "As the Sunnis have a major role in the resistance against the country's occupation by U.S.-led foreign troops and the U.S.-guided transitional government, the ongoing anarchy will not end quickly," the Bahraini paper argued. It went on to say the "American bosses of the new breed of Iraqi leaders" will not be able to achieve a peaceful and stable Iraq by sidelining the Sunnis, whom it said have governed the country for decades. It added the new government "can benefit from their rich experience instead of ignoring them."

--

The London-based al-Quds al-Arabi criticized the draft Iraqi constitution as contradicting the basics of any country's charter that provides equality among all its people, saying that meeting the deadline to complete it and the last-minute concessions showed it came to serve the American, not Iraqi, interests. The independent Palestinian-owned daily claimed that President George W. Bush was seeking to endorse this constitution through any means to tell his growing opposition at home that Iraq's political process and democracy was moving forward. It said the American administration, "which claims it is fighting Islamic fundamentalism, has spent $200 billion dollars and more than 2,000 of its troops in Iraq and Afghanistan, is supporting an Iraqi constitution that will establish an Islamic fundamentalist state in Baghdad." The paper, with pan-Arab nationalist trends, insisted the draft charter was not preparing for a peaceful country, but for a possible civil war because "it consolidates the dictatorship of the majority in an ugly and unprecedented manner, a dictatorship based on the force of occupation, not on the basis of ethics and logic." It warned the draft charter will not save Bush nor stop his declining popularity at home, nor will it be a step towards his "strategy to escape," saying Iraq has become the new Vietnam as the death toll of American soldiers rises "in this war of attrition." The paper added that Bush was not fighting terrorism in Iraq to protect his people in New York, Texas and Florida, but to protect Israel. "His wars in Afghanistan and Iraq did not wipe out terrorism, but multiplied its threats and made it reach Riyadh, Sharm el-Sheikh, Taba, Aqaba, Eilat, Madrid and London, and is only a few steps away from Washington," the paper predicted.

--

Lebanon's independent an-Nahar daily commented that President Bush does not change under any circumstances, saying "not the Iraqi quagmire, the rise in American deaths or his declining popularity in America is changing him." The mass-circulation paper said now that Bush was losing his military war in Iraq, he was seeking a "new political victory" in the country to justify his "failure in defeating terrorism." It opined the tools for achieving such a victory was not in forming a capable Iraqi military force, even if Bush claimed that, because this was a long-term plan that might not be achieved in the first place, but in the political process and namely the draft constitution. "Therefore, it is unimportant if the Iraqis wrote it up with conviction or pressure, nor is it important if the Shiites, Sunnis and Kurds agreed or disagreed on its contents. It is not important if the text meets the official American administration's objectives for a peaceful and democratic Iraq and it is not important if this would be a draft constitution or a draft for a civil war," the paper sarcastically commented. It said the important element here, for Bush, is for the Iraqi Parliament to endorse the draft charter to add to the American president's "victories" and to allow him to "leave his quagmire, not through the withdrawal of his troops, but through redeploying them outside the cities and towns to more secure bases" within Iraq.

--

Jordan's al-Ghad said that anyone who does not endorse al-Qaida as a terrorist organization deserves condemnation and legal action against them.

The independent Jordanian daily said it was not unusual for al-Qaida's Abu Musab al-Zarqawi to claim responsibility for Friday's triple mortar-rocket attack in Jordan's Red Sea port of Aqaba, which killed a Jordanian soldier and injured another. The independent daily opined the statement by the Jordanian-born terrorist, believed to lead al-Qaida operations in Iraq, came to celebrate the killing of a Jordanian, Arab Muslim soldier, insisting that this should end the debate over this group's agenda. "Any analysis or explanation that does not endorse the fact that al-Qaida is a terrorist, inhuman organization with no message except destruction, killing and distorting Islam and Muslims is totally rejected, should be condemned and legal action taken against them," the paper demanded. It said it was unfortunate there were still those who try to justify the cruelty of the group's actions that "only serve the enemies of the Arab and Muslim nations." It added there was a thin line between justifying al-Qaida's crimes and trying to explain them, but that breaching this line was indirect support for those who kill innocent people around the world, Jordan included. The paper said it was high time to form a clear religious, philosophical, political and human position that will condemn al-Qaida and its affiliates once and for all.

http://news.amnesty.org/index/ENGEUR450332005

UK: New security measures are a serious attack on human rights
Related documents
UK: Human rights are the way to security, not a barrier to it
05/08/2005

Press release, 08/24/2005

The new measures, proposed today by the United Kingdom (UK) government, targeting non-nationals considered to be threatening public order, national security and the rule of law, violate basic human rights and the UK's international obligations, Amnesty International said today.

The Home Secretary Charles Clarke ordered an immediate review of his powers to exclude and deport non-British citizens suspected of "justifying or glorifying terrorism, seeking to provoke terrorist acts, fomenting other serious criminal activity, fostering hatred that might lead to inter-community violence. A global database will list foreigners who engage in different forms of "unacceptable behaviour", such as radical preaching and publishing websites and articles intended to foment "terrorism", to be vetted automatically before entering the UK.

"The vagueness and breadth of the definition of 'unacceptable behaviour' and 'terrorism' can lead to further injustice and risk further undermining human rights protection in the UK. Instead of strengthening security, they will further alienate vulnerable sections of society," Halya Gowan, Europe and Cental Asia Programme Deputy Director at Amnesty International, said.

"The right not to be subjected to torture or other ill-treatment, or to be sent to a country where there is a risk of such treatment, applies to everybody, irrespective of whatever offence they may have committed. The so-called 'diplomatic assurances' that the UK government seeks when expelling people to countries where they may be at risk of being tortured are a clear violation of international law."

"If the UK authorities reasonably suspect people of having committed certain criminal offences, their immediate duty is to bring criminally recognizable charges against them and promptly try them according to international fair trial standards instead of off loading them to a third country where they may be tortured."

Amnesty International is concerned that the procedure to be used to process deportations or exclude people who may "threaten public order and national security" may once again include the use of secret evidence at secret hearings.

"The UK authorities will be violating the rights of non-British nationals if they seek to deport them or prevent them from entering the country by not allowing them adequate defence in the course of secret proceedings," Halya Gowan said.

"The new measures are similar to those brought under the now repealed part 4 of the Anti-Terrorism, Crime and Security Act 2001 in that they are discriminatory and arbitrary."

Amnesty International has unconditionally and unreservedly condemned the attacks in London on 7 July 2005, and has called for those allegedly responsible to be brought to justice. The organization also considers that any measures the UK authorities take with the stated intention to protect people from repetitions of such crimes must be consistent with international human rights law and standards.

"Security and human rights are not alternatives; they go hand in hand. Respect for human rights is the route to security, not the obstacle to it."

Background
Amnesty International is concerned that the new measures, outlined by the UK Home Secretary Charles Clarke undermine the rule of law and fundamental human rights, including:


the absolute prohibition of torture or other ill-treatment, and the principle inherent to such prohibition according to which a person should never be sent anywhere where she or he risk being subjected to torture or other ill-treatment -- the principle known as non-refoulement;
the right to seek and enjoy asylum, including the right of all persons who seek international protection to have their asylum claim individually and fully considered in fair and satisfactory procedures consistent with international human rights and refugee law and standards. Any intention to exclude someone from refugee status should be considered in the context of regular refugee status determination procedures, and should be subject to fundamental principles of procedural fairness, including the right to appeal against the decision to exclude, and to remain in the UK while that appeal is being considered;
the rights to freedom of expression and association;
the principle of legality and legal certainty;
the right of any person reasonably suspected of a recognizably criminal offence to be promptly charged and brought to trial within reasonable time in proceedings which fully meet internationally-recognized fair trial standards; and
the right to a fair trial and due process.

Hackers Attack Via Chinese Web Sites

By Bradley Graham

Web sites in China are being used heavily to target computer networks in the Defense Department and other U.S. agencies, successfully breaching hundreds of unclassified networks, according to several U.S. officials.

Classified systems have not been compromised, the officials added. But U.S. authorities remain concerned because, as one official said, even seemingly innocuous information, when pulled together from various sources, can yield useful intelligence to an adversary.

"The scope of this thing is surprisingly big," said one of four government officials who spoke separately about the incidents, which stretch back as far as two or three years and have been code-named Titan Rain by U.S. investigators. All officials insisted on anonymity, given the sensitivity of the matter.

Whether the attacks constitute a coordinated Chinese government campaign to penetrate U.S. networks and spy on government databanks has divided U.S. analysts. Some in the Pentagon are said to be convinced of official Chinese involvement; others see the electronic probing as the work of other hackers simply using Chinese networks to disguise the origins of the attacks.

"It's not just the Defense Department but a wide variety of networks that have been hit," including the departments of State, Energy and Homeland Security as well as defense contractors, the official said. "This is an ongoing, organized attempt to siphon off information from our unclassified systems."

Another official, however, cautioned against exaggerating the severity of the intrusions. He said the attacks, while constituting "a large volume," were "not the biggest thing going on out there."

Apart from acknowledging the existence of Titan Rain and providing a sketchy account of its scope, the officials who were interviewed declined to offer further details, citing legal and political considerations and a desire to avoid giving any advantage to the hackers. One official said the FBI has opened an investigation into the incidents. The FBI declined to comment.

One official familiar with the investigation said it has not provided definitive evidence of who is behind the attacks. "Is this an orchestrated campaign by PRC or just a bunch of disconnected hackers? We just can't say at this point," the official said, referring to the People's Republic of China.

With the threat of computer intrusions on the rise generally among Internet users, U.S. government officials have made no secret that their systems, like commercial and household ones, are subject to attack. Because the Pentagon has more computers than any other agency -- about 5 million worldwide -- it is the most exposed to foreign as well as domestic hackers, the officials said.

Over the past few years, the Defense Department has taken steps to better organize what had been a rather disjointed approach to cyber security by individual branches of the armed forces. Last year, responsibility for managing the Pentagon's computer networks was assigned to the new Joint Task Force for Global Network Operations under the U.S. Strategic Command.

"Like everybody connected to the Internet, we're seeing a huge spike" in outside scanning of Pentagon systems, said Lt. Col. Mike VanPutte, vice director of operations at the task force. "That's really for two reasons. One is, the tools are much simpler today. Anyone can download an attack tool and target any block on the Internet. The second is, the intrusion detection systems in place today," which are more sophisticated and can identify more attacks.

Pentagon figures show that more attempts to scan Defense Department systems come from China, which has 119 million Internet users, than from any other country. VanPutte said this does not mean that China is where all the probes start, only that it is "the last hop" before they reach their targets.

He noted that China is a convenient "steppingstone" for hackers because of the large number of computers there that can be compromised. Also, tracing hackers who use Chinese networks is complicated by the lack of cyber investigation agreements between China and the United States, another task force official said.

The number of attempted intrusions from all sources identified by the Pentagon last year totaled about 79,000, defense officials said, up from about 54,000 in 2003. Of those, hackers succeeded in gaining access to a Defense Department computer in about 1,300 cases. The vast majority of these instances involved what VanPutte called "low risk" computers.

Concern about computer attacks from China comes amid heightened U.S. worry generally about Chinese military activities. Defense Secretary Donald H. Rumsfeld warned in June that China's military spending threatened the security balance in Asia, and the Pentagon's latest annual report on Chinese military power, released last month, described the ongoing modernization of Beijing's armed forces.

The report contained a separate section on development of computer attack systems by China's military. It said the People's Liberation Army (PLA) sees computer network operations as "critical to seize the initiative" in establishing "electromagnetic dominance" early in a conflict to increase effectiveness in battle.

"The PLA has likely established information warfare units to develop viruses to attack enemy computer systems and networks, and tactics to protect friendly computer systems and networks," the report said.

"The PLA has increased the role of CNO [computer network operations] in its military exercises," the report added. "Although initial training efforts focused on increasing the PLA's proficiency in defensive measures, recent exercises have incorporated offensive operations, primarily as first strikes against enemy networks."

The computer attacks from China have given added impetus to Pentagon moves to adopt new detection software programs and improve training of computer security specialists, several officials said.

"It's a constant game of staying one step ahead," one said.

Staff writer Dan Eggen contributed to this report.

http://www.washingtonpost.com/ac2/wp-dyn/e...er=emailarticle

Rival Shiites Clash in Baqubah as Leaders Call for Calm

By Saad Sarhan, Ellen Knickmeyer and Jonathan Finer

NAJAF, Iraq, Aug. 25 -- Fighters loyal to Shiite cleric Moqtada Sadr battled government-allied Shiite forces in the central city of Baqubah on Thursday, as clashes among rival Shiite militias spread despite calls from both sides for calm.

"I call upon all the believers to save the blood of the Muslims and to return to their homes," Sadr told reporters at his home in the southern Shiite holy city of Najaf.

The clashes broke out Wednesday when Sadr's offices in Najaf were attacked and burned by rival groups. Some 3,000 followers surrounded Sadr's house as he spoke, many of them armed with grenade-launchers and automatic rifles, and vowing to defend him.

The southern city of Basra was calmer Thursday following Sadr's appeal, after street battles with mortars, grenade-launchers and automatic rifles a day earlier between Sadr's followers and those of the Badr organization. At least one policeman and one Sadr follower were reported killed there in fighting early Wednesday; there was no figure on casualties later in the day.

The fighting, which quickly spread to other urban centers in south-central Iraq, underscored the deep rifts within the Shiite community -- 60 percent of the population -- which won most seats in parliament in the Jan. 30 election which were boycotted by Sunni Muslims.

While militias are illegal under Iraq's interim constitution, Shiite and Kurdish factions still command thousands of fighters loyal to them above all others.

The violence is tinged by disputes over Iraq's new draft constitution. Sadr's followers and most Sunnis largely oppose the draft's provisions for the establishment of federal states in Iraq, saying it will lead to the breakup of the country.

"I will not forget this attack on the office . . . but Iraq is passing through a critical and difficult period that requires unity," Sadr said, in remarks quoted by news agencies.

Sadr also called on Abdul-Aziz Hakim, leader of the rival Supreme Council for the Islamic Revolution in Iraq, now the leading party in Iraq's Shiite-led interim government, to condemn "what his followers have done."

The fighting chiefly involves Sadr's forces and the Supreme Council's military wing, the Badr organization.

Prime Minister Ibrahim Jafari appeared on state TV shortly after midnight to condemn the violence, which comes as Sunni, Shiite and Kurdish factions try for a third time to reach accord on Iraq's draft constitution by a new deadline, Thursday.

"Peace must reign," said Jafari, a member of another Shiite party leading the government. "This language of violence cannot be permitted in the new Iraq."

In Baqubah, Sadr's black-clad forces fought with those of the Supreme Council on Thursday, said Ahmed Karim, spokesman for the joint coordination center for Iraqi and U.S. forces there.

Baqubah police officers said four Sadr fighters were killed in clashes among Sadr's followers and those of the Iraqi army, police and U.S. forces.

American military spokesmen in Baghdad said they had no immediate information.

Karim said that U.S. helicopters were patrolling over the city, and that American forces had made an unspecified number of arrests. Baqubah's people took shelter inside their homes. Sunni mosques in the city blared messages calling on Sadr's forces "to continue fighting those who want to divide Iraq," Karim said.

Eight miles north of Baqubah, gunmen opened fire on five men believed to be fighters of the Supreme Council's Badr organization, killing five of them, Karim claimed. At least seven people died in Wednesday's clashes.

In other developments, wire services reported that six Iraqi civilians were killed and 15 wounded on Thursday when gunmen burst into a popular cafe in the small town of Abu Sayda, about 37 miles north of Baghdad.

Ellen Knickmeyer and Jonathan Finer reported from Baghdad.
http://www.washingtonpost.com/ac2/wp-dyn/e...er=emailarticle

http://www.atimes.com/atimes/Global_Economy/GH26Dj01.html
SPEAKING FREELY
Killing the dollar in Iran
By Toni Straka

Speaking Freely is an Asia Times Online feature that allows guest writers to have their say. Please click here if you are interested in contributing.

Could the proposed Iranian oil bourse (IOB) become the catalyst for a significant blow to the influential position the US dollar enjoys? Manifold supply fears have driven the price of crude oil to its recent high of US$67.10 - only a notch below its highest price in inflation-adjusted dollar terms. With the world facing a daily bill of roughly $5.5 billion for crude oil at current price levels, it becomes apparent that sellers and purchasers of the black gold are looking into all ways that could lead to a financial improvement on their respective sides.

Non-US-dollar holders so far have been the victim of additional transaction costs in the oil trade. The necessary conversion of local currencies into oil-buying greenbacks can be considered a hidden tax, charged and enjoyed by the international banking sector. The IOB, by eliminating this transaction cost, will become



a factor that could unsettle the dollar's dominant position. While the worldwide bottleneck of inadequate refining facilities and partly dramatic declines in production - for example in the North Sea - are two factors that cannot be eliminated in the short term, there is one area left which could result in smiling faces of oil producers as well as most buyers.

Oil consumers are entangled in a web of supply fears that span the globe. In Venezuela, President Hugo Chavez threatens to divert oil supplies from the US to China, which faces severe gasoline and diesel shortages these days. Attacks on Iraqi oil installations have slowed exports there. Ecuador's oil industry is still recovering from a strike, while Nigerian oil companies are in the middle of efforts to avoid a strike there.

Until now, oil has been solely priced, traded and paid for in the greenback on markets in both London and New York. But monthly worldwide oil revenues of over $110 billion (on a 20-trading-day basis) - a third of which ends up with OPEC (Organization of the Petroleum Exporting Countries) members - raise the question of what happens to these cash mountains. According to the most recent data from the US Treasury Department, OPEC members have parked only a skimpy $120 billion in direct dollar holdings, which are almost equally split between equities and American debt paper. This is a clear indication that oil producers are investing their windfalls elsewhere. The yield spread between US and EU debt papers in favor of the EU is another hint where the petrodollars might be heading.

Especially in the case of Iran, it does not make sense to accept dollars only for its much-desired commodity. Given that Iran is seen as a hostile country by the current US administration for its intention to build its own nuclear reactors, one wonders whether the new IOB will not try to attract buyers other than Americans. Iran has recently announced that the new oil exchange will start up its computers in March 2006.

The proposal to set up a petroleum bourse was first voiced in Iran's development plan for 2000-2005. Last July, Heydar Mostakhdemin-Hosseini, who heads the board of directors of the Iranian Stock Exchange council, said authorities had agreed in principle to the establishment of the IOB, where petrochemicals, crude oil and oil and gas products will be traded. The oil exchange would strive to make Iran the main hub for oil deals in the region and most deals will be conducted via the Internet. Experts from London's International Petroleum Exchange (IPE) and the New York Mercantile Exchange (NYMEX) have reportedly confirmed the feasibility of the project.

The IOB can count on two sharp arrows in its holster. It can - and probably will - lure European buyers with oil prices quoted in euros, saving them dollar transaction costs. And it can strike barter deals with oil-hungry giants like China and India who have a lot of products and commodities to offer. One doubts whether American hamburgers and legal services will be considered adequate collateral for the world's most after-sought resource.

Worse than an Iranian nuclear attack?
Weaned off the almighty commodity, the US dollar can have a deeper impact on the US economy than a direct nuclear attack by Iran. The permanent demand for dollar-denominated paper stems substantially from the fact that until now almost all resources of the world are quoted in it. While this led to the eurodollar (US dollar-denominated deposits at foreign banks or foreign branches of American banks) market in the 1970s, the new terms of trade could ring in the demise of the dollar as the premier reserve currency.

With the world economy depending so much on oil, the black gold itself can be seen as a reserve currency that will be handed out against only the best collateral in the future. Last month, the Federal Reserve Bank of San Francisco published a paper about the progress of the diversification of central banks' reserves around the world. It concluded that the dollar's position is on the decline in many countries. China, the new industrial giant, has officially declared that it will diversify a part of its forex holdings into oil by building a strategic petroleum reserve. Construction of storage tanks has begun this year and will take several years until completion. China has not yet said how many barrels of oil it wants to store. The implications for the oil market can only be guessed as China wants to use its future reserves to smooth out spikes in oil price.

Iran holds a strong hand as the No 2 producer of crude behind Saudi Arabia, pumping 5% of the world's oil demand. Politicians there will also keep in mind that dollar deposits might become a burden in the future, if the US steps up its current war of words to the level of economic sanctions in the attempt to halt construction of Iran's nuclear power plants. Money in the bank does not help when you have no access to it. Substituting Iran's domestic oil demand partly with nuclear power will place the country in a win-win situation. Cheaper nuclear energy and increases in oil exports from the current level of roughly 2.5 million barrels a day will result in a profitable equation for Iran.

Only one major actor stands to lose from a change in the current status quo: the US, which with less than 5% of the global population, consumes roughly one third of global oil production. Oil in euros would benefit millions more in the EU and its trading partners, though. And it would loosen the grip the US has on OPEC members. Thinking of the rapid growth of hostilities between the US and Arab nations in recent years, a renunciation of the dollar appears to be more than just an Arab daydream.

As this development poses a very real danger to the superior status of the greenback and the interests of the US, the "president of war" can be expected to take a strong line against the winds blowing from the Middle East. One may be reminded that Saddam Hussein had entered into discreet talks with the EU, proposing to sell his oil for euros. That was in the year before the first oil war of this century.

The IOB could help the euro to become the interim primary reserve currency before China and India rise to the first two slots in the global economic ranking in the next few decades. A decline of the dollar's position in oil trading might also open the floodgates in other commodity markets where the dollar is the medium of exchange but where the US has only a minority market share. A global economy driven by tough efficiency demands in the light of thin profit margins almost everywhere is a good primer for accounting changes in other commodity markets as well. This process could begin in resources like steel and energy and spread to all other resources that are marketed globally. The world outside the US has a lot to gain from it.

Toni Straka is a Vienna, Austria-based independent financial analyst and portfolio manager, who worked as a financial journalist for over 15 years and now evaluates global market trends. He runs a blog, The Prudent Investor, where this piece first appeared.

(Copyright 2005 Toni Straka)

http://www.atimes.com/atimes/South_Asia/GH26Df01.html


COMMENTARY
Pakistan looks to its image
By Ehsan Ahrari

According to a recent report in the British media, President General Pervez Musharraf of Pakistan, like his ally in the "war on terror", President George W Bush, is about to indulge in public diplomacy. This phrase describes a progression of activities implemented to create a positive image abroad.

Pakistan under Musharraf, like the US under Bush, has a serious image problem abroad. Pakistan is increasingly envisaged as the gathering place for global jihadis, as well as a "factory" where future jihadis are being nurtured and shaped in the country's madrassas (seminaries). How can Pakistan change its image in the global arena? It certainly cannot achieve that objective by merely running public relations campaigns or by hiring slick image-makers. Effective public diplomacy requires radical changes in major policies that are the root causes for the bad



images that Pakistan has acquired under Musharraf and his predecessors.

Even though the entire episode of the way in which Pakistan acquired a bad image abroad is too cumbersome to be fully captured in a portrayal of limited length, one can identify at least three problems, and suggest some tenable solutions.

First is the absence of democracy. The history of Pakistan is dominated by military dictators who captured power, proclaiming that civilian politicians were too corrupt and inept to be trusted with the future of the country. Unfortunately, no military dictator of Pakistan has emerged as a shining example of corruption-free or skilled rule. Each of those dictators had to be eventually thrown out of office by another dictator. In the case of General Zia ul-Huq, his rule was brought to an abrupt end because of an unexplained aircraft accident in which he died.

Musharraf's rule is not much different from Zia's in some ways, even though he cannot be compared with Zia for his brutality. Still, Musharraf, who came to power in a coup in 1999, is just as duplicitous about his commitment to democracy as was Zia. He has created a compelling impression among his critics as well as supporters that he will do just about anything to cling to power. He has made several promises about bringing democracy to Pakistan, only to break them cavalierly.

There is no doubt that he will not take off his uniform, for he could never be sure that the next chief of the army would not nurture ambitions of ousting him once he became a civilian. The history of Pakistan provides persuasive evidence to Musharraf on this issue. Besides, he himself captured power by ousting a civilian prime minister, Nawaz Sharif.

The second reason that creates a powerful negative image of Pakistan is the growing power of indigenous Islamists and jihadis. Musharraf knows that to stay in office he must tread gingerly on the issue of bringing about religious reforms, closing or curtailing the madrassas, or putting all jihadi groups out of business, if not out of existence.

That is why, to placate his international critics, he, from time to time, announces cosmetic changes in his approach toward eradicating religious extremism, and then refrains from fully implementing those changes. The most recent example was his declaration that he would either close down hardline madrassas or reform them.

At the same time, in the aftermath of the London bombings of July 7 - and in the wake of news that two out of three young terrorists of Pakistani origin visited Pakistan before perpetrating their acts - he promised to expel the currently enrolled foreign students from Pakistani madrassas. However, under growing confrontation and resistance from the six-party Muttahida Majlis-e-Amal (MMA) religious/political forces against such a measure, he appears inclined once again to either postpone taking immediate action or back down altogether.

Besides, the idea of jihad has always helped Pakistan in its resolve to destabilize Indian-administered Kashmir. Inside the Pakistani armed forces, there still remains a powerful block of supporters of the jihadi card against India, even though Pakistan has ostensibly discarded that option. Musharraf knows the nature of jihadi support within the army, but cannot afford to harp on it publicly for pragmatic reasons. His own role in the Kargil conflict (the 1999 incursion into India-administered Kashmir) is also evidence that he himself at one time sanctioned the jihadi card to resolve the Kashmir conflict.

His best option now appears to be to quietly strive to reduce or eliminate entirely the influence of the pro-jihadi block within the Pakistani army. He can do that only gradually and systematically. However, the global limelight on that issue creates sustained pressures on him to, if not escalate the pace of his reforms, at least be less deliberative in carrying them out.

Third, related to the preceding, is the fact that the entire issue of jihad has to be debated before anyone can earnestly talk about discarding it as a weapon to implement political change. Pakistan is likely to be the last country where such a debate will take place, either now or in the future. Even before Zia's systematic endeavors to Islamize the country in the 1970s, Pakistan's Muslim community was well aware of the description of militant jihad through the writings of Maulana Abul Ala Maududi, a prolific Islamist scholar whose writing influenced the thinking of some major jihadis as far as Egypt, and as far back as the 1950s.

When Zia pushed his country toward his own version of "purified" Islam, Maududi played a crucial role in that campaign. One wonders how much of Musharraf's own thinking was influenced in that era, even though he has recently promoted what he calls an "enlightened" approach to Islam. Still, his drive to stay in power continues to force him to sabotage his purported commitment to enlightenment as he continues to cooperate with the MMA.

In view of the preceding, what should Musharraf do to create an effective campaign of public diplomacy?

First, he must take visible and substantive measures to bring democracy back to Pakistan. That means he must once again set a date to retire from the army, become a civilian and run as a civilian politician. Most important, he must fulfill his commitment this time and without any further hedging. There are, to be sure, numerous personal risks if he were to take these measures; however, there is no way Pakistan can become a democracy if its top leadership sets no example of personal courage and personal sacrifice.

Second, Musharraf must initiate a public campaign of declaring militant jihad and jihadis as enemies of Islam and Muslims. The Saudi government recently started such a campaign through the use of "official" ulemas (religious scholars who are on the government payroll), but only after becoming convinced that the jihadis of their country are also the enemies of the Saudi dynasty.

There is little doubt that Pakistani jihadis are not only the enemies of Musharraf's regime, but loathe him with equal intensity. Three assassination attempts on him are the most persuasive evidence of that reality. They have declared a war against everything he claims to promote in the name of Islamic enlightenment and appear resolute to push his country on the dark and backsliding road of obscurantism. A tenable strategy on his part has to be to become equally serious about eradicating them, or at least their perilous frame of reference.

However, Musharraf's task is doubly difficult because he has to start a two-front campaign to achieve his objectives. He has to confront the jihadis in the Pakistani political arena. As if that by itself was not a difficult enough task, he has to worry about the pro-jihadi elements of the Pakistani army. It is difficult to figure the actual size of this group, and more to the point, the intensity of their fervor for jihad. Either way, challenges to Musharraf's personal security are likely to become intense if he were to carry out an earnest campaign to take on the jihadis of his country.

Third, a crucial aspect of public diplomacy for Musharraf is to initiate a public debate on making militant jihad irrelevant and anachronistic, not just in Pakistan, but also in the world of Islam. Notwithstanding the intricacy and the enormity of this task, he is not exactly without allies or lacking a powerful precedence in the socio-religious history of South Asia.

In pre-partitioned India, there existed the Jadidst movement. They were the proponents of using Islam as a modernizing force. Jadidists of South Asia argued vigorously about eradicating all aspects of obscurantism from the sub-continent. One such person was Sayed Ahmed Khan, founder of the Muslim University in Aligarh, India. Jadidism is also an integral aspect of the Islamic culture of Central Asia. Even though the brutality of first the Czarist and then communist imperial forces, in their common zeal to colonize Muslim Central Asia, did not allow the full nurturing of this tradition, it has remained an important aspect of the Islamic legacy of Central as well as South Asia. Allama Mohammad Iqbal, better known as the founder of the very idea of Pakistan, himself was much influenced by the Jadidst thinking of another famous Jadidst, Jamaluddin Afghani.

What emerges from the preceding is that the public diplomacy regarding Pakistan requires a number of challenging policy-oriented tasks and personal challenges. If he is serious about altering the current dubious image of his country, Musharraf has to implement some or all of the preceding. He must also know the risks involved, including a possible loss of power. Anything short of the preceding would amount to nothing but a mindless public relations campaign, which would only result in further wasting of Pakistan's precious resources without gaining anything substantive in the form of an improved political image of Pakistan.

Ehsan Ahrari is an independent strategic analyst based in Alexandria, VA, US. His columns appear regularly in Asia Times Online. He is also a regular contributor to the Global Beat Syndicate. His website: www.ehsanahrari.com.

http://www.atimes.com/atimes/South_Asia/GH26Df02.html

Musharraf gets his moment
By Syed Saleem Shahzad

KARACHI - The first of three stages of local council elections has been completed in Pakistan, with the initial results marking victory for people allied with President General Pervez Musharraf.

The longer-term implications of the results, according to analysts, are that Musharraf can now position himself to further consolidate his power, and at the same time do something to answer international pressure for change in the country.

The local elections involve all of Pakistan's 110 districts. In the first stage 53 districts voted, with the remainder due to cast their votes this week. Then, on September 29 the councilors elected in the first two rounds will elect district chiefs. These chiefs have a power far beyond their local communities: they can influence



elections for both national and provincial assemblies, which are due in 2007, the same year that presidential elections will be held.

Thus, by gaining support at the grass-roots level, Musharraf is taking a big step toward ensuring his political future as a democratically elected leader, rather than the military ruler he is now, having seized power in a coup in 1999.

The results of the first round caught many people by surprise, with the political landscape being turned on its head.

The Muttahida Majlis-e-Amal (MMA), a coalition of six religious parties, suffered badly. However, when one considers that the MMA, which performed strongly in the last national elections, is widely seen as a creation of the establishment as a "pliable" opposition, their latest poor showing is understandable: it's payback time.

From North West Frontier Province, where the MMA single-handedly rules the provincial assembly, to Balochistan, where it is a major coalition partner, the MMA lost ground to pro-Musharraf groups. Although local elections are not meant to involve political parties, the allegiances of the victors cannot be ignored.

And the MMA was not the only loser. The biggest upset involved the Pakistan People's Party Parliamentarian (PPPP), led by former premier Benazir Bhutto, in Sindh province, where it lost many of its strongholds. In Punjab the ruling pro-Musharraf Pakistan Muslim League swept the polls.

"Elections in Pakistan are rigged. Though this is not the official position of the Pakistan People's Party, but my personal opinion, it is a prelude for the creation of a new electoral college in Pakistan, very much on the pattern of Field Marshal Ayub Khan, to get General Pervez Musharraf elected as president for a fresh term as a uniformed president," said the leader of the opposition in the Upper House of parliament and deputy secretary general of the PPPP, Raza Rabbani.

Whether the elections were rigged or not is a separate issue, but there is no doubt that the local elections are a milestone for some important decision-making in the country. Districts and the cities are the real administrative units in the country. Provincial governments and the federal government have their respective jurisdiction for macro-level policy-making.

"The new setup is likely to be used effectively against madrassas [seminaries], which refuse to reveal their sources of income or refuse to register [as per a new diktat]. The idea of an inter-madrassa board has been approved by all religious groups. However, there is a proposal that like modern schools under different boards, madrassas, under an inter-madrassa board, would also come under the control of the executive district officer [education] in their respective districts, and these officers would be fully empowered to send education inspectors to keep an eye on the activities of these madrassas, their syllabus and their income. At the provincial level or federal level it is difficult, but at the district level it is very convenient," said a top official on condition of anonymity.

Pakistan's madrassas have long been considered breeding grounds for Islamic extremists - the Taliban grew out of the country's madrassas.

Following the first round of local elections, the religious parties are now on the back foot, and they will have lost much of their ability to mobilize the masses, while giving Musharraf a better chance to push ahead with more contentious policies.

These include, inevitably, relations with India. Many on the more extreme side of Pakistan's body politic resent the rapprochement of the past year or so with Delhi, as anti-India sentiment has been a powerful rallying cry ever since the nations were carved out of the British Raj in 1947.

Both India and Pakistan have pitched new players into fresh back-channel diplomatic efforts and brought in moderate and progressive faces. The immediate result of this is likely to be the start of a dialogue process between the Indian government and leaders of the Kashmir separatist All Parties Hurriyat Conference led by Mir Waiz Umer Farooq. Such dialogue would effectively isolate militancy and its supporters in the Indian-administered section of Kashmir.

This does not mean, though, that Musharraf is overnight going to abandon the militant cause in Kashmir - there are still far too many vested interests in Pakistan's intelligence and military to do this. (And this regardless of pressure from India and the international community for Musharraf to stop cross-border militancy in Kashmir.)

Last Saturday, Hafiz Mohammed Saeed of the Jamaatut Dawa (formerly the now-banned Lashkar-e-Toiba - LeT) visited Karachi and staged a large gathering behind closed doors at its Karachi headquarters situated near the University of Karachi. Hafiz Mohammed Saeed and the head of the militant wing of the LeT, Zakiur Rehman, had just met with Musharraf in Rawalpindi, where they were advised to carry on with their activities in Kashmir, but at a low level.

Traditional bottlenecks might have effectively been removed by the local council elections, but the traditional mindset in the corridors of power has not changed - at least not yet.

Syed Saleem Shahzad, Bureau Chief, Pakistan Asia Times Online. He can be reached at saleem_shahzad2002@yahoo.com

http://www.arabnews.com/?page=1§ion=0&...d=24&m=8&y=2005

Iraq Bickering Could Lead to Partition: Saud
Samir Al-Saadi, Arab News

JEDDAH, 24 August 2005 — Saudi Arabia said yesterday it hoped Iraq’s draft constitution would guarantee unity and warned that confrontational disputes may lead to the partition of the state along sectarian lines.

“Saudi Arabia... hopes that the constitution will meet the aspirations of the Iraqi people in consecrating national unity and maintaining its Arab and Muslim identity,” said Foreign Minister Prince Saud Al-Faisal during a news conference in Jeddah.

Prince Saud said the Kingdom hoped the charter, submitted to Parliament on Monday despite lingering differences, would achieve the Iraqi people’s “aspirations for security, stability and prosperity.”

He warned that sectarian stances “will not lead to anything but the partition of Iraq along sectarian lines.” He called on Iraqi leaders to “let national interests supercede sectarian interests.”

Prince Saud said Saudi Arabia had so far shied away from opening an embassy in Baghdad because of the deteriorating security situation, which included a spate of deadly attacks against foreign diplomats.

“The security problem is preventing us from opening a Saudi Embassy in Baghdad. There is no political obstacle,” he said. “When the security situation settles down, we will open our embassy immediately.”

Diplomatic relations were broken off with Baghdad when Saddam Hussein invaded Kuwait in 1990.

Turning to the subject of negotiations for the repatriation of Saudi prisoners held at the US detention camp in Guantanamo Bay, Cuba, he said they had reached an advanced stage. “We hope that they will return soon,” he said.

There are still 121 Saudis among some 500 inmates from around the world who have been held at the camp since the US-led war in Afghanistan in late 2001.

Three Saudi detainees were repatriated from Guantanamo earlier this year, and five others in May 2003. The Saudi government is exerting continued efforts to repatriate all its citizens detained abroad. The camp has been the focus of worldwide controversy following allegations that US forces have abused detainees.

The foreign minister confirmed that there were Saudi prisoners in Iraq. “We have asked the Iraqi government to allow us to communicate with them and in helping identify them. The Saudi government can also help in investigations if the Iraqi government requested us,” he added.

“We want to bring the innocent back home and want to identify the guilty and find out how they entered Iraq.” Saudi Arabia has banned citizens who want to join the insurgents from going to Iraq. “It is not Jihad,” Prince Saud said.

The foreign minister condemned both the rocket attacks in Aqaba that occurred on Aug. 19 and the terror acts in Bangladesh on Aug. 17. He said they proved terrorists would not hesitate to use any method in order to achieve their goals in disturbing the peace and threatening international security. “This emphasizes again the need to double international efforts in facing and stamping out terrorism,” said Prince Saud.

Regarding the Palestine issue, he said the Kingdom is following with concern the Israeli pullout from Gaza and looks forward to this first step being followed by other steps to pull out completely from all occupied Palestinian and Arab land to enable the Palestinian people to build their independent state with Jerusalem as its capital.

He said the Kingdom will continue efforts to moderate the increase in oil prices.

Prince Saud blamed the sharp price increase on a shortage of refinery capacity in consumer nations.

“No matter how much production is increased, prices will only be affected if consuming countries have sufficient refineries,” he said.

Saudi Arabia has a “balanced policy to keep prices moderate so that they don’t affect the global economy,” Prince Saud added.

http://www.news-record.com/apps/pbcs.dll/a...C0101/508220314

Monday, August 22, 2005
Taliban regains Afghan foothold

By Jonathan S. Landay
Knight Ridder News Service
KABUL, Afghanistan -- Nearly four years after a U.S.-led military intervention toppled them from power, the Taliban has re-emerged as a potent threat to stability in Afghanistan.

Though it's a far cry from the mass movement that overran most of the country in the 1990s, today's Taliban is fighting a guerrilla war with new weapons, including portable anti-aircraft missiles, and equipment bought with cash sent through Osama bin Laden's al-Qaida network, according to Afghan and Western officials. While it was in power, the Taliban provided safe haven to bin Laden and al-Qaida.

The money is coming from "rogue elements and factional elements living in the Middle East," Afghan Defense Minister Abdul Rahim Wardak said in an interview with Knight Ridder.

"Al-Qaida is channeling money and equipment," said Lt. George Hughbanks, a U.S. Army intelligence officer in Zabul province, one of the worst hit by the Taliban insurgency.

The Taliban is now a disparate assemblage of radical groups estimated to number several thousand, far fewer than when it was in power before November 2001. The fighters operate in small cells that occasionally come together for specific missions. They're unable to hold territory or defeat coalition troops.

They're linked by a loose command structure and an aim of driving out U.S.-led coalition and NATO troops, toppling U.S.-backed President Hamid Karzai and reimposing hard-line Islamic rule on Afghanistan, according to Afghan and Western officials and experts.

The Taliban insurgents have adopted some of the terrorist tactics that their Iraqi counterparts have used to stoke popular anger at the Iraqi government and the U.S. military. They've stalled reconstruction and fomented sectarian tensions in a country that remains mired in poverty and corruption, illegal drugs and ethnic and political hatred.

Their tactics include attacks with homemade explosives, and beheadings, assassinations and kidnappings targeting public officials and others who cooperate in international democracy-building efforts and reconstruction.

The violence continued last week when a homemade bomb planted by the Taliban killed two U.S. soldiers near the southern city of Kandahar, bringing the number killed in hostile actions in the past six months to at least 44.

The new American ambassador to Afghanistan, Ronald E. Neumann, said Thursday that the Taliban had "absolutely no chance" of derailing Sept. 18's parliamentary and provincial council polls because security would be too tight.

The Taliban's new tactics, however, suggest to some experts that the surge in violence that began five months ago is more than an effort to impede the elections.

These experts fear that the Taliban's resurgence may be part of an al-Qaida strategy aimed at keeping the U.S. military stressed and bleeding not only in Iraq, but also in Afghanistan.

"I think they (al-Qaida) are opening a second front," said Marvin Weinbaum, a former State Department intelligence analyst who's now at the Middle East Institute in Washington. "I don't think the elections are really the focus."

"These are people who see this in broader terms," he said.

U.S. officials in Washington said they had no proof of such an al-Qaida-coordinated strategy. But an American defense official said he couldn't exclude it, and that he and other U.S. officials were concerned about the lessons the Taliban was drawing from Iraq.

"It would be extremely naive of us not to believe that the enemy is a thinking, learning, adapting enemy," said the American defense official, who requested anonymity because the issue is an intelligence matter. "There is certainly learning that is going on and we have to remind ourselves of not falling into the trap of not understanding it."

"It's potentially much larger than Iraq and Afghanistan," he said.

What some of the experts now call the "neo-Taliban" is said to comprise four components:

\• Most of the original top leaders who were never captured, including Mullah Omar, who founded the movement among members of Afghanistan's dominant Pashtun ethnic group. Their fighters are said to include loyalists from the original movement and newly indoctrinated Afghan students from radical Islamic schools in Pakistan and Afghanistan.

"Great numbers of Muslims support us in spite of (President) Bush's wish," Dadullah said in an interview July 20 with Al-Jazeera. "We have continued to receive support from our Muslim brothers across the globe."

\• Gulbuddin Hekmatyar and his Hizb-e-Islami party, the main recipients of U.S.- funded weapons that Pakistan funneled to the mujahedeen groups that fought the 1979-89 Soviet occupation.

\• Pakistani Islamic extremists, foreign jihadis and al-Qaida fighters from Chechnya, Uzbekistan and Arab countries whom sympathetic Pashtun tribes in Pakistan's tribal belt sheltered after the U.S.-led intervention.

\• Afghan drug merchants, lumber and gem smugglers, and criminal gangs who cover their activities by portraying themselves as defending Afghanistan from non-Muslims.

The Taliban seized power in the 1990s after decades of civil war and imposed an Islamist regime. Many of its followers died in the U.S.-led intervention, and others, including several senior leaders, switched sides under a government amnesty program.

Instead of collapsing, however, the movement transformed itself. When the snows melted this past spring, the Taliban surprised Afghan and U.S. commanders with its renewed insurgency.

"We were all under the assumption that things in the country were under control," Defense Minister Wardak said.

Afghan and Western officials alleged that the escalating insurgency is being aided by Pakistan's powerful military intelligence agency, Inter-Services Intelligence.

"Pakistan is ... fanning the flames," charged Latfullah Maashal, the chief spokesman of the Afghan Interior Ministry. "The Pakistanis ... do not want to see a strong, peaceful and prosperous country (Afghanistan)."

The Taliban is being allowed to maintain arms depots, training camps and sanctuaries in the lawless tribal belt on Pakistan's side of the frontier, he said.

Islamabad denies the charge, saying it stopped supporting the Taliban after al-Qaida's Sept. 11, 2001, terrorist attacks on New York and Washington.

http://news.bbc.co.uk/2/hi/south_asia/4180286.stm


Last Updated: Wednesday, 24 August 2005, 12:46 GMT 13:46 UK

Khan 'gave N Korea centrifuges'

AQ Khan has been under house arrest since his confession
Disgraced Pakistani scientist AQ Khan supplied North Korea with centrifuges and their designs, President Pervez Musharraf has confirmed.
Centrifuges enrich uranium which can be used for making nuclear bombs.

It is the first time Pakistan has given details about the type of technology Dr Khan transferred to Pyongyang.

But President Musharraf told Japanese news agency Kyodo that Dr Khan had not provided North Korea with the expertise for constructing a nuclear bomb.

Dr Khan has admitted leaking nuclear secrets to North Korea, Libya and Iran. Pakistan's government has always denied any involvement.

Stand-off

"Yes, he passed centrifuges - parts and complete. I do not exactly remember the number," President Musharraf told Kyodo.

The centrifuges are essential components for enriching uranium, which can be used as fuel for civilian nuclear power reactors or making atomic weapons.


So if North Korea has made a bomb... Dr AQ Khan's part is only enriching the uranium to weapons grade

President Musharraf

But President Musharraf said Dr Khan was not involved in the conversion of uranium into gas or other key steps needed to make the bomb.

"He does not know about making the bomb, he does not know about the trigger mechanism, he does not know about the delivery system," Gen Musharraf said.

"So if North Korea has made a bomb... Dr AQ Khan's part is only enriching the uranium to weapons grade."

Regarding the additional technology, the president said North Korea "must have got it themselves or somewhere else - not from Pakistan".

The president's spokesman, Maj Gen Shaukat Sultan, confirmed Gen Musharraf's remarks while downplaying Dr Khan's role in helping North Korea acquire a nuclear bomb.

"Saying that someone made a bomb because Khan passed on a couple of centrifuges to them, maybe a dozen of them, this does not mean they can make a bomb," he told Agence France Presse.

Until now, Pakistan has revealed few details about the transfers that Dr Khan made, particularly to North Korea, although it says it has briefed the UN's nuclear watchdog.

The international community is locked in a stand-off with Pyongyang after it announced in February 2005 that it had built nuclear weapons for self-defence.

Six-party talks aimed at persuading the nation to abandon its nuclear activities, involving the US, Russia, China, Japan and South Korea, are set to resume next week.

'National hero'

Dr Khan has been under house arrest since his public confession in February 2004 that he illegally transferred nuclear technology to countries including North Korea, Libya and Iran.

The man still regarded by many Pakistanis as a national hero was given a pardon by President Musharraf because of his services to the nation's nuclear industry.

Dr Khan has not been allowed to receive visitors and international investigators probing global nuclear proliferation have not been allowed to question him.

Pakistan this year confirmed Dr Khan had supplied nuclear centrifuges to Iran.

President Musharraf has previously said the discovery of the Khan network was the most embarrassing episode in his political career.

Palestinian stabs Israeli in Hebron, army says Reuters.uk
A Palestinian stabbed and wounded a border policeman while being searched at an Israeli checkpoint in the West Bank city of Hebron on Friday, the army said.
PA decries 'Israeli crime' in Tulkarm Jerusalem Post
Gaza hysteria Al-Ahram Weekly
Guardian Unlimited - Reuters AlertNet - Zaman Online - Independent - all 2,346 related »

Young followers of Shiite cleric Muqtada al-Sadr rallied Thursday in support of their leader as a meeting to decide on Iraq's draft constitution was canceled and talks were extended for another day.
http://www.iht.com/articles/2005/08/25/news/iraq.php


A year after Beslan assault, still no answers
There is scarcely more clarity about what happened than there was when the flames died down.
http://www.iht.com/articles/2005/08/25/news/beslan.php


News Analysis: To retailers, Mandelson mistimed the quotas
The problem, retailers said, was that Brussels bungled the timing of the quotas of Chinese textiles because it did not understand the way global trade works.
http://www.iht.com/articles/2005/08/25/yourmoney/mand.php


JFK faced India-China dilemma
The Kennedy administration in 1963 pondered the feasibility of a nuclear strike against China if it attacked India for a second time, according to newly declassified audio recordings of White House deliberations.
http://www.iht.com/articles/2005/08/25/news/india.php


British farmers grow roots in Estonia
The newcomers discovered that if they cleared the soil and worked it, the local government would give it to them more or less for free.
http://www.iht.com/articles/2005/08/25/news/farmers.php


Egypt ushers in campaign season
The theater of politics has arrived in Egypt, a country that has never known democracy. But many people are asking what it means.
http://www.iht.com/articles/2005/08/25/news/egypt.php


Help for Venezuela strains Cuban health care
Cubans complain that quality and access are suffering as they lose tens of thousands of medical workers to Venezuela in exchange for cheap oil.
http://www.iht.com/articles/2005/08/25/news/doctors.php


China readying new taxes on gas guzzlers
Alarmed by high world oil prices and sporadic shortages of gasoline and diesel in big Chinese cities this summer, China's leaders are drafting plans to impose steep taxes on cars and sport utility vehicles with large, gas-guzzling engines.
http://www.iht.com/articles/2005/08/25/business/yuan.php


Philip Bowring: Go forth and multiply
South Korea's latest goal of driving up its birth rate should be a signal to other countries in the region to consider the consequences of present fertility trends.
http://www.iht.com/articles/2005/08/25/news/edbowring.php


Interpretors for Iraq: Lost in translation
The U.S. should recruit Arab-Americans to help translate in Iraq.
http://www.iht.com/articles/2005/08/25/opinion/edhammes.php

http://news.independent.co.uk/world/americ...ticle308269.ece

The US vs The UN
American ambassador seeks to scupper UN's global strategy with 750 amendments after just three weeks in the job
By David Usborne in New York
Published: 26 August 2005

America's controversial new ambassador to the United Nations is seeking to shred an agreement on strengthening the world body and fighting poverty intended to be the highlight of a 60th anniversary summit next month. In the extraordinary intervention, John Bolton has sought to roll back proposed UN commitments on aid to developing countries, combating global warming and nuclear disarmament.

Mr Bolton has demanded no fewer than 750 amendments to the blueprint restating the ideals of the international body, which was originally drafted by the UN secretary general, Kofi Annan.

The amendments are spelt out in a 32-page US version, first reported by the Washington Post and acquired yesterday by The Independent. The document is littered with deletions and exclusions. Most strikingly, the changes eliminate all specific reference to the so-called Millennium Development Goals, accepted by all countries at the last major UN summit in 2000, including the United States.

The Americans are also seeking virtually to remove all references to the Kyoto treaty and the battle against global warming. They are striking out mention of the disputed International Criminal Court and drawing a red line through any suggestion that the nuclear powers should dismantle their arsenals. Instead, the US is seeking to add emphasis to passages on fighting terrorism and spreading democracy.

Very quickly, Mr Bolton has given the answer to anyone still wondering whether his long and difficult journey to New York - President George Bush confirmed him to the post after the US Senate was unable to - would render him coy or cautious. Far from that, he seems intent on taking the UN by the collar and plainly saying to its face what America expects - and does not expect - from it.

To the dismay of many other delegations, the US has even scored out pledges that would have asked nations to "achieve the target of 0.7 per cent of gross national product for official development assistance by no later than 2015". All references to the date or the percentage level are gone in the Bolton version.

Passages that look forward to a larger role for the General Assembly are gone. Rejected also is a promise to create a standing military capacity for UN peacekeeping.

This show of contempt from Washington and its new envoy comes at a time when Mr Annan has been severely weakened by allegations of widespread corruption, fraud and nepotism. The White House is aware, for example, that Mr Annan himself could be further undermined when investigators into corruption in the oil-for-food programme in Iraq issue their final report, probably just days before the summit itself, due to be held from 14 to 16 September.

The move by MrBolton has thrown preparations for the summit into turmoil, prompting some to question whether there will be anything for the leaders to put their pens to in New York. "We can't be entirely sure there will be an agreement," one senior United Nations aide admitted last night. Failure to reach an agreement could embarrass Tony Blair, who is believed to have given broad backing to Mr Annan's original draft.

"It is not great news," said one Western diplomat of the American paper, which had been distributed only to a select group of UN ambassadors by yesterday. "What they are proposing is quite radical. If we start negotiating now the way the Americans want, it is going to make for a very difficult process."

Some UN insiders concede that at 29 pages the proposed text was probably far too long for many of the world's presidents and prime ministers to accept. They all also see that in its present form it would ask the US to promise to uphold treaties and conventions it has already rejected, including the Kyoto pact.

The president of the General Assembly, Jean Ping of Gambia, must now try to save the summit from disaster. He will bring together a core group of 20 to 30 countries in the days ahead, with Britain and the US included, to see what, if anything, can be found to overcome so many American objections. There is no doubt in the corridors of New York that something must be stitched together before the summit, even if it ends up being very short.

"The purpose of the summit," said Shashi Tharoor, a senior aide to Mr Annan, "is to rekindle the idealism with which the UN was created 60 years ago and to use the birthday to renew the organisation for the purposes of the 21st century. The rest is process and details."

The problem is that the summit is less than three weeks away. "Time is short," Mr Bolton warned in a letter to other UN envoys earlier this week. "In order to maximise our chances of success, I suggest we begin the negotiations immediately."

Guide to the differences in approach
Millennium goals

What the UN wants

Specific references to the UN Millennium Development Goals which set targets to be achieved by 2015 on issues such as poverty, education, disease, trade and aid

What the US wants

References to the Millennium Development Goals systematically removed and replaced by vague references to the reduction of poverty, and a promise to reinforce the trend

The likely outcome

Unlikely to reach agreement. Developing countries will fight hard to keep references to Millennium Development Goals which were agreed by all UN members in 2000

Foreign aid

What the UN wants

To re-state development goals calling for wealthy countries, including the US, to contribute 0.7 per cent of their gross national product to aid

What the US wants

Deletion of all references to 0.7 per cent figure. Wants to link further increases to good housekeeping - and further liberalisation of markets

The likely outcome

Hard to see how there can be a compromise

Climate change

What the UN wants

Concerted global action to address climate change. Further negotiations to look beyond 2012 by broadening Kyoto agreement to include greater participation by developing and developed nations

What the US wants

Stresses energy efficiency and development of new technologies, and rejects global action plan. Rejects assertion that climate change is a long-term challenge that could potentially affect every part of the world

The likely outcome

Could be compromise, as US is prepared to recommit to the UN Framework Convention on Climate Change

Nuclear disarmament

What the UN wants

An appeal to the five nuclear powers - Britain, US, France, China and Russia - to take concrete steps towards nuclear disarmament

What the US wants

To shift focus to halting the spread of the world's deadliest weapons. Will not specifically recommit to working towards nuclear disarmament, although will recommit to the Nuclear Non-Proliferation Treaty

The likely outcome

Difficult to envisage agreement after negotiations on a five-year review of the NPT broke up in May without a result

International Criminal Court

What the UN wants

Commitment to end impunity for the most serious violations of international humanitarian law, including genocide, by co-operating with the International Criminal Court

What the US wants

No reference to International Criminal Court, whose statutes the Bush administration controversially withdrew from in 2002

The likely outcome

No agreement. America is out in the cold on this one, although the commitment of a number of other states to the court has been wavering under US pressure

Trade

What the UN wants

Help for developing countries to join the World Trade Organisation

What the US wants

Insistence that countries seeking to join the WTO must be willing and able to undertake WTO commitments. Baulks at "facilitating" entry of developing countries

The likely outcome

Big fight, with developing countries clamouring for access to markets. Probably no agreement

America's controversial new ambassador to the United Nations is seeking to shred an agreement on strengthening the world body and fighting poverty intended to be the highlight of a 60th anniversary summit next month. In the extraordinary intervention, John Bolton has sought to roll back proposed UN commitments on aid to developing countries, combating global warming and nuclear disarmament.

Mr Bolton has demanded no fewer than 750 amendments to the blueprint restating the ideals of the international body, which was originally drafted by the UN secretary general, Kofi Annan.

The amendments are spelt out in a 32-page US version, first reported by the Washington Post and acquired yesterday by The Independent. The document is littered with deletions and exclusions. Most strikingly, the changes eliminate all specific reference to the so-called Millennium Development Goals, accepted by all countries at the last major UN summit in 2000, including the United States.

The Americans are also seeking virtually to remove all references to the Kyoto treaty and the battle against global warming. They are striking out mention of the disputed International Criminal Court and drawing a red line through any suggestion that the nuclear powers should dismantle their arsenals. Instead, the US is seeking to add emphasis to passages on fighting terrorism and spreading democracy.

Very quickly, Mr Bolton has given the answer to anyone still wondering whether his long and difficult journey to New York - President George Bush confirmed him to the post after the US Senate was unable to - would render him coy or cautious. Far from that, he seems intent on taking the UN by the collar and plainly saying to its face what America expects - and does not expect - from it.

To the dismay of many other delegations, the US has even scored out pledges that would have asked nations to "achieve the target of 0.7 per cent of gross national product for official development assistance by no later than 2015". All references to the date or the percentage level are gone in the Bolton version.

Passages that look forward to a larger role for the General Assembly are gone. Rejected also is a promise to create a standing military capacity for UN peacekeeping.

This show of contempt from Washington and its new envoy comes at a time when Mr Annan has been severely weakened by allegations of widespread corruption, fraud and nepotism. The White House is aware, for example, that Mr Annan himself could be further undermined when investigators into corruption in the oil-for-food programme in Iraq issue their final report, probably just days before the summit itself, due to be held from 14 to 16 September.

The move by MrBolton has thrown preparations for the summit into turmoil, prompting some to question whether there will be anything for the leaders to put their pens to in New York. "We can't be entirely sure there will be an agreement," one senior United Nations aide admitted last night. Failure to reach an agreement could embarrass Tony Blair, who is believed to have given broad backing to Mr Annan's original draft.

"It is not great news," said one Western diplomat of the American paper, which had been distributed only to a select group of UN ambassadors by yesterday. "What they are proposing is quite radical. If we start negotiating now the way the Americans want, it is going to make for a very difficult process."

Some UN insiders concede that at 29 pages the proposed text was probably far too long for many of the world's presidents and prime ministers to accept. They all also see that in its present form it would ask the US to promise to uphold treaties and conventions it has already rejected, including the Kyoto pact.

The president of the General Assembly, Jean Ping of Gambia, must now try to save the summit from disaster. He will bring together a core group of 20 to 30 countries in the days ahead, with Britain and the US included, to see what, if anything, can be found to overcome so many American objections. There is no doubt in the corridors of New York that something must be stitched together before the summit, even if it ends up being very short.

"The purpose of the summit," said Shashi Tharoor, a senior aide to Mr Annan, "is to rekindle the idealism with which the UN was created 60 years ago and to use the birthday to renew the organisation for the purposes of the 21st century. The rest is process and details."

The problem is that the summit is less than three weeks away. "Time is short," Mr Bolton warned in a letter to other UN envoys earlier this week. "In order to maximise our chances of success, I suggest we begin the negotiations immediately."
Guide to the differences in approach
Millennium goals

What the UN wants

Specific references to the UN Millennium Development Goals which set targets to be achieved by 2015 on issues such as poverty, education, disease, trade and aid

What the US wants

References to the Millennium Development Goals systematically removed and replaced by vague references to the reduction of poverty, and a promise to reinforce the trend

The likely outcome

Unlikely to reach agreement. Developing countries will fight hard to keep references to Millennium Development Goals which were agreed by all UN members in 2000

Foreign aid

What the UN wants

To re-state development goals calling for wealthy countries, including the US, to contribute 0.7 per cent of their gross national product to aid

What the US wants

Deletion of all references to 0.7 per cent figure. Wants to link further increases to good housekeeping - and further liberalisation of markets

The likely outcome

Hard to see how there can be a compromise

Climate change

What the UN wants

Concerted global action to address climate change. Further negotiations to look beyond 2012 by broadening Kyoto agreement to include greater participation by developing and developed nations

What the US wants

Stresses energy efficiency and development of new technologies, and rejects global action plan. Rejects assertion that climate change is a long-term challenge that could potentially affect every part of the world

The likely outcome

Could be compromise, as US is prepared to recommit to the UN Framework Convention on Climate Change

Nuclear disarmament

What the UN wants

An appeal to the five nuclear powers - Britain, US, France, China and Russia - to take concrete steps towards nuclear disarmament

What the US wants

To shift focus to halting the spread of the world's deadliest weapons. Will not specifically recommit to working towards nuclear disarmament, although will recommit to the Nuclear Non-Proliferation Treaty

The likely outcome

Difficult to envisage agreement after negotiations on a five-year review of the NPT broke up in May without a result

International Criminal Court

What the UN wants

Commitment to end impunity for the most serious violations of international humanitarian law, including genocide, by co-operating with the International Criminal Court

What the US wants

No reference to International Criminal Court, whose statutes the Bush administration controversially withdrew from in 2002

The likely outcome

No agreement. America is out in the cold on this one, although the commitment of a number of other states to the court has been wavering under US pressure

Trade

What the UN wants

Help for developing countries to join the World Trade Organisation

What the US wants

Insistence that countries seeking to join the WTO must be willing and able to undertake WTO commitments. Baulks at "facilitating" entry of developing countries

The likely outcome

Big fight, with developing countries clamouring for access to markets. Probably no agreement

http://news.independent.co.uk/world/middle...ticle308264.ece

Briton stabbed to death in Jerusalem
By Donald Macintyre in Jerusalem
Published: 26 August 2005

Police were last night hunting a lone Arab who stabbed to death a 21-year-old British Jew and wounded another as they returned from praying at the Western Wall in Jerusalem's Old City.

Shmuel Mett, from Golders Green, north London, was stabbed to death with a kitchen knife two months before he was due to get married in England.

Mr Mett, an ultra-Orthodox rabbinical student at Jerusalem's Mir Yeshiva religious college, was with his close friend Sam Weissbart, 22, also from Golders Green, when the attack happened on David Street. Mr Weissbart, also a yeshiva student, was stabbed but escaped to a nearby police station. He was recovering yesterday in the Shaare Zedek hospital.

David Street, one of the main alleys leading into the heart of the Old City, runs through the Christian Quarter, which is mainly populated by Christian Arabs. But Jews frequently go through it to pray at the Western Wall, Judaism's holiest site, without being attacked or threatened.

Relatives of Mr Weissbart said that a man jumped out at him shouting something he could not understand.

He said that he thought he had been punched before realising that he was bleeding from a wound just above the hip bone. He had not seen what had happened to Mr Mett, whom he had known from childhood.

The murder was caught on one of the many CCTV cameras throughout the Old City and police were reported to be taking a photograph of the assailant round the neighbourhood in an effort to find him. Police said last night that a third yeshiva student, whom they did not identify, had been walking with the two men and had come forward to give information.

The dead man's parents, Percy and Judith, flew immediately to Israel from London for the funeral yesterday evening at the Mir Yeshiva in the ultra orthodox Beit Israel neighbourhood. More than 1,000 yeshiva students and local residents attended the funeral, conducted in Yiddish and Hebrew, along with eminent scholars and leading rabbis attached to the yeshiva. Mir Yeshiva is currently on holiday but is normally attended by 4000 to 5000 students and is one of the leading centres of Talmudic scholarship in world Jewry.

One leading mourner sobbed as he cried out in Yiddish: "Why do the disciples of the wise die when they are so small?"

Mr Mett's fiancée, Dina Rosenfeld, whom he was due to marry in two months, was understood to have remained in London.

Earlier, Daniel Harrington, a 22-year-old American traveller from Spokane, Washington, said he had heard a "commotion" at around 8.30pm on Wednesday and had left the Petra hostel where he was staying to see what had happened. He said that he had been at the scene for about four minutes when the police arrived and started to move people back.

Mr Harrington said the blade appeared to be in Mr Mett's stomach and that there appeared to be blood running from a second wound on his leg. He added: "When I arrived he was still breathing and he had colour, but by the time the police moved me on he was as white as a sheet."

Students at the yeshiva, largely foreigners unable to go home for the August break, were among demonstrators on Wednesday evening at the Hadassah Ein Karem hospital where Mr Mett had been taken, protesting at reported police plans to hold an autopsy, which ultra-Orthodox Jews regard as forbidden by their religion.

In the face of the protests - and the resistance of Mr Mett's sister, who lives in Israel - police announced yesterday morning that they would not be holding an autopsy but instead there would be a "visual inspection" of Mr Mett's wounds by a doctor approved by the dead man's family.

At the yeshiva, fellow students, who declined to give their names, spoke of Mr Mett as a "smiley, quiet, boy who was very serious about studies" . One student, also from Golders Green, said: "Shmuel was one of those people who was impossible to dislike. This is a tragic, tragic thing." The student said that both Mr Mett and Mr Weissbart had regularly attended the Hagers synagogue in Golders Green.

One family friend, who asked for his name not to be used, said: "Sam couldn't sleep last night. He said that when he shut his eyes he saw the man jumping out at him shouting."

One of Mr Weissbart's cousins Noah Feld, said both men - who had been friends since attending Pardes House school in Golders Green and had been at the Gateshead Yeshiva before coming to Israel - "wouldn't hurt a fly. They were gentle, special people".

Mr Feld said Mr Weissbart had managed to reach the police station at the Armenian quarter about 300 yards from where the attack took place in David Street, where a small group of ultra-Orthodox mourners gathered to pray yesterday afternoon.

Yoram Halevy, commander of the Old City's police station, said a Palestinian carried out the stabbings. Police said the attack was "nationally" motivated.

Police were last night hunting a lone Arab who stabbed to death a 21-year-old British Jew and wounded another as they returned from praying at the Western Wall in Jerusalem's Old City.

Shmuel Mett, from Golders Green, north London, was stabbed to death with a kitchen knife two months before he was due to get married in England.

Mr Mett, an ultra-Orthodox rabbinical student at Jerusalem's Mir Yeshiva religious college, was with his close friend Sam Weissbart, 22, also from Golders Green, when the attack happened on David Street. Mr Weissbart, also a yeshiva student, was stabbed but escaped to a nearby police station. He was recovering yesterday in the Shaare Zedek hospital.

David Street, one of the main alleys leading into the heart of the Old City, runs through the Christian Quarter, which is mainly populated by Christian Arabs. But Jews frequently go through it to pray at the Western Wall, Judaism's holiest site, without being attacked or threatened.

Relatives of Mr Weissbart said that a man jumped out at him shouting something he could not understand.

He said that he thought he had been punched before realising that he was bleeding from a wound just above the hip bone. He had not seen what had happened to Mr Mett, whom he had known from childhood.

The murder was caught on one of the many CCTV cameras throughout the Old City and police were reported to be taking a photograph of the assailant round the neighbourhood in an effort to find him. Police said last night that a third yeshiva student, whom they did not identify, had been walking with the two men and had come forward to give information.

The dead man's parents, Percy and Judith, flew immediately to Israel from London for the funeral yesterday evening at the Mir Yeshiva in the ultra orthodox Beit Israel neighbourhood. More than 1,000 yeshiva students and local residents attended the funeral, conducted in Yiddish and Hebrew, along with eminent scholars and leading rabbis attached to the yeshiva. Mir Yeshiva is currently on holiday but is normally attended by 4000 to 5000 students and is one of the leading centres of Talmudic scholarship in world Jewry.

One leading mourner sobbed as he cried out in Yiddish: "Why do the disciples of the wise die when they are so small?"

Mr Mett's fiancée, Dina Rosenfeld, whom he was due to marry in two months, was understood to have remained in London.

Earlier, Daniel Harrington, a 22-year-old American traveller from Spokane, Washington, said he had heard a "commotion" at around 8.30pm on Wednesday and had left the Petra hostel where he was staying to see what had happened. He said that he had been at the scene for about four minutes when the police arrived and started to move people back.
Mr Harrington said the blade appeared to be in Mr Mett's stomach and that there appeared to be blood running from a second wound on his leg. He added: "When I arrived he was still breathing and he had colour, but by the time the police moved me on he was as white as a sheet."

Students at the yeshiva, largely foreigners unable to go home for the August break, were among demonstrators on Wednesday evening at the Hadassah Ein Karem hospital where Mr Mett had been taken, protesting at reported police plans to hold an autopsy, which ultra-Orthodox Jews regard as forbidden by their religion.

In the face of the protests - and the resistance of Mr Mett's sister, who lives in Israel - police announced yesterday morning that they would not be holding an autopsy but instead there would be a "visual inspection" of Mr Mett's wounds by a doctor approved by the dead man's family.

At the yeshiva, fellow students, who declined to give their names, spoke of Mr Mett as a "smiley, quiet, boy who was very serious about studies" . One student, also from Golders Green, said: "Shmuel was one of those people who was impossible to dislike. This is a tragic, tragic thing." The student said that both Mr Mett and Mr Weissbart had regularly attended the Hagers synagogue in Golders Green.

One family friend, who asked for his name not to be used, said: "Sam couldn't sleep last night. He said that when he shut his eyes he saw the man jumping out at him shouting."

One of Mr Weissbart's cousins Noah Feld, said both men - who had been friends since attending Pardes House school in Golders Green and had been at the Gateshead Yeshiva before coming to Israel - "wouldn't hurt a fly. They were gentle, special people".

Mr Feld said Mr Weissbart had managed to reach the police station at the Armenian quarter about 300 yards from where the attack took place in David Street, where a small group of ultra-Orthodox mourners gathered to pray yesterday afternoon.

Yoram Halevy, commander of the Old City's police station, said a Palestinian carried out the stabbings. Police said the attack was "nationally" motivated.

The fuel behind Iran's nuclear drive
By David Isenberg

Much of the argument over the intentions of Iran's nuclear program revolves around a single proposition that goes like this. Given that Iran has huge oil and gas reserves, it has no need for nuclear power for domestic energy needs and thus its nuclear program will be used for nuclear weapons.

Like much so-called conventional wisdom, is this is a highly misleading and debatable cliche?

Certainly, the fact that a state is pursuing a nuclear program per se, even if it is a nuclear proliferator, is not always a cause for alarm for the United States. Earlier this year, the US announced an agreement with India (until recently a target of US sanctions, even under the current US president) to strengthen the utilization of nuclear energy in its energy mix.

The Foreign Affairs Select Committee of England's parliament said in March 2004 that based on a study it commissioned, "It is clear ... that the arguments as to whether Iran has a genuine requirement for domestically produced nuclear electricity are not all, or even predominantly, on one side."


Some US arguments against Iran "were not supported by an analysis of the facts", the committee added, noting that much of the natural gas flared off by Iran - which US officials say could be harnessed instead of nuclear power - was not recoverable for energy use.

Consider the following points. First, Iran's energy situation today is quite different from the late 1970s, when the shah's regime also pursued nuclear technology, a pursuit that did not seem so alarming to the West at the time.

David Kay, former head of the Iraq Survey Group, speaking in November 2004 at a forum sponsored by the Center for Strategic and International Studies said:
The first thing - of what we do know, and it's amazing how many Americans seem to skate over this - the first nuclear reactor given to Iran was given by the United States in 1967 - a five-megawatt trigger reactor, research reactor, under the Eisenhower Atoms for Peace Program. Still operated ... The other thing that Americans forget is that in 1974, the shah announced a policy of 23,000 megawatts of nuclear energy in Iraq. The US reaction? [Former US national security adviser and secretary of state] Henry Kissinger beat down the door to be sure that two US constructors, General Electric and Westinghouse, had a preferred position in selling those reactors. We did not say, "it's a stupid idea, why would you want to do that when you are flaring gas and you have immense oil reserves?" We said, "That is very interesting; it's an example of how the Iranian economy is moving and becoming modern." Imagine in Iranian ears how it sounds now when we denigrate that capacity. They remember. We were sellers of nuclear reactors and wanted to be sellers of nuclear reactors to the shah.
Consider that just a year or so prior to the 1979 Iranian revolution, the country was producing more than 6 million barrels a day of oil and its domestic consumption was less than 10% of that output. Its annual natural gas production (almost all in the form of associated gas) was roughly about 12 billion cubic meters of which some 9.5 billion cubic meters was exported to the Soviet Union and only 20% was consumed domestically. Iran's population was about 35 million. Meanwhile, Iran had signed a number of nuclear power construction contracts with France and Germany and was negotiating with others for additional ones. The stated objectives of these undertakings were to generate electricity and desalinate water. But according to the pre-revolution politicians there was also always an attempt to explore the nuclear technology for military purposes. But there was no overt opposition to the shah's nuclear ambitions because of friendly relations between Iran and US.

In fact, president Gerald Ford signed a directive in 1976 offering Tehran the chance to buy and operate a US-built reprocessing facility for extracting plutonium from nuclear reactor fuel. The deal was for a complete "nuclear fuel cycle" - reactors powered by and regenerating fissile materials on a self-sustaining basis.

The construction of nuclear power plants in Iran has been contemplated for more than 30 years. The shah argued that hydrocarbon resources would be too valuable to burn by the beginning of 21st century and most of Iran's electricity generation must be supplied from nuclear power plants by then.

After the Iran-Iraq war at the end of the 1980s, the need for electricity generation for reconstruction of the war-damaged economy was evident and as the maximum export of hydrocarbon resources was to be achieved for foreign exchange requirements, the attention was focused on rebuilding the Bushehr nuclear power plant.

Today, Iran has a population of more than 65 million and most people are choking from air pollution. The country produces some 4 million barrels of oil a day of which about 1.5 million are consumed domestically. Natural gas production has skyrocketed and almost all of it is consumed domestically and the share of natural gas of total energy consumption has more than tripled and a very significant portion of that is used to generate power. Incidentally, utilization of oil or natural gas for power generation, though more benign than coal, is not pollution free.

A recent article in Foreign Policy journal noted:
Iran is the second-largest oil producer in the Organization of Petroleum Exporting Countries [OPEC] and has the world's second-largest natural gas reserves. But its energy needs are rising faster than its ability to meet them. Driven by a young population and high oil revenues, Iran's power consumption is growing by around 7% annually, and its capacity must nearly triple over the next 15 years to meet projected demand. Where will the electricity come from? Not from the oil sector. It is retarded by US sanctions, as well as inefficiency, corruption and Iran's institutionalized distrust of Western investors. Since 1995, when the sector was opened to a handful of foreign companies, Iran has added 600,000 barrels per day to its crude production, enough to offset depletion in aging fields, but not enough to boost output, which has stagnated at around 3.7 million barrels per day since the late 1990s. Almost 40% of Iran's crude oil is consumed locally. If this figure were to rise, oil revenues would fall, spelling the end of the strong economic growth the country has enjoyed since 1999. Plugging the gap with natural gas is not possible - yet. Iran's gigantic gas reserves are only just being tapped, so Iran remains a net importer.
Second, as a sovereign nation Iran is entitled to make its own sovereign decisions as to how provide for its own energy needs. Under Article IV of the nuclear Non-Proliferation Treaty, member states are assured access to the benefits of civilian nuclear energy.

Iran is a resource-rich country and has all the rights to use its resources as it sees fit. Among these resources there are several uranium mines whose energy contents cannot be overlooked. Expecting Iran to disregard this valuable resource is irrational, not to mention that taking away that much energy from the free market is an irresponsible proposition. On the other hand, helping Iran to extract, process and use this resource in a joint operation with the International Atomic Energy Agency could help resolve many political as well as financial problems.

Third, the large oil and gas reserves that Iran possesses do not mean that Iran can use oil and gas at no cost.

It is not well appreciated that Iranian oil production has dropped from a peak of more than 6 million barrels per day in 1974 to about 3.4 barrels per day in 2002. Years of political isolation, recurring war and US sanctions have deprived the oil sector of needed investment. Iran's share of total world oil trade peaked at 17.2% in 1972, then declined to 2.6% in 1980, but has since recouped to roughly 5%. In 2002, earnings from oil and gas made up more than 70% of total government revenues, while taxes made up about 20%. After the 1980-1988 Iran-Iraq war, the National Iranian Oil Company launched a reconstruction program to restore damaged fields. Since 1994, production has averaged 3.6 million barrels per day, although this is still roughly half of Iran's 1974 levels. The government hopes that foreign finance and technology will help raise Iran's output to 5.6 million barrels per day by 2010 and 7.3 million barrels per day by 2020.

In fact, the oil and gas that Iran has are almost as expensive as the oil and gas that other countries don't have. To be able to use oil or gas as a feed for an industry (eg power generation), Iran has to develop the resources. Now, once developed and produced, from an economic point of view, oil can be treated as a commodity, which has a value. The monetization of gas is more difficult, but not if you have ready markets around you and also if you can use that gas to boost your oil production capacity. In fact, considering the reality that the majority of Iran's oil and gas reserves are in the south and the country's population centers are in the north, it makes more sense to export the oil and gas in the south (oil from the terminals and gas through pipelines and gas value-add projects) rather than pump it to the north and translate it into electric power.

One example explains the logic of this argument - no one has so far posed the question why Iran actually buys oil from Caspian sources. The simple answer is that it makes economic sense: Caspian crude is closer to Iran's northern refineries and the utilization of Caspian crude in the north frees up oil in the south for export. The only argument that can be used regarding Iran's oil and gas reserves compared to other countries is the fact that Iran has secure domestic supplies as compared to other countries that are importers of oil and gas. However, if Iran as a country manages also to secure its own indigenous supply of nuclear fuel, then the equation changes and it becomes more of an economic evaluation.

With regard to its gas reserves, it bears noting that there are needs for gas in Iran that are much higher priorities than the construction of gas power plants. As academics William Beeman and Thomas Stauffer noted:
First, gas is vitally needed for reinjection into existing oil reservoirs [repressurizing]. This is indispensable for maintaining oil output levels, as well as for increasing overall, long-term recovery of oil. Second, natural gas is needed for growing domestic use, such as in cooking fuel and domestic heating (Iranians typically use kerosene for both), where it can free up oil for more profitable export. New uses such as powering bus and taxi fleets in Iran's smoggy urban areas are also essential for development. Third, natural gas exports - via pipelines to Turkey or in liquefied form to the sub-continent - set an attractive minimum value for any available natural gas. With adequate nuclear power generation, Iran can profit more from selling its gas than using it to generate power. Fourth, the economics of gas production in Iran are almost backwards, certainly counter-intuitive. Much of Iran's gas is "rich" - it contains byproducts, such as liquid-petroleum gas [LPG, better known as propane], which are more valuable than the natural gas from which they are derived. Iran can profit by selling these derivatives, but not if it burns the natural gas to generate power. Furthermore, Iran adheres to OPEC production quotas, which combine oil and natural gas production. Therefore Iran cannot simply increase natural gas for export to make up for what it burns at home.
Finally, there is another important strategic element to consider. Iran derives strategic significance from its status as an oil and gas exporter. This is a status that Iran would like to maintain, and as such any initiative that would maximize Iran's potential for hydrocarbon exports has a strategic value for Iran.

David Isenberg, a senior analyst with the Washington-based British American Security Information Council (BASIC), has a wide background in arms control and national security issues. The views expressed are his own.

(Copyright 2005 Asia Times Online Ltd. All rights reserved. Please contact us for information on sales, syndication and republishing .)

http://www.telegraph.co.uk/news/main.jhtml.../ixnewstop.html

Iraq on brink of meltdown
By Oliver Poole in Baghdad
(Filed: 26/08/2005)

Q&A: charter talks fail for a third time

The credibility of Iraq's political process was in danger last night as parliament again failed to vote on a draft constitution which a Sunni politician said was "fit only for the bin".

The government had earlier announced plans to bypass parliament in an attempt to push through the document.


Supporters of Moqtada al-Sadr at a demonstration

But as the final hours ran out before the deadline for approving the constitution, Hajim al-Hassani, the speaker of the parliament, appeared to overrule the country's leaders by insisting that negotiations would continue today, meaning that the deadline would be missed for the third time.

The impression of growing crisis in Iraq was reinforced when a new front erupted in the violent rebellion, with Shia Muslims fighting each other with guns and rocket-propelled grenades.

Ibrahim al-Jaafari, the prime minister, made an emergency television appeal for peace and sent two police commando units to Najaf where the fighting had started.

Throughout the day in Baghdad, politicians bickered over how to proceed with the constitution without driving the country to civil war.

As night fell, the government's official spokesman, Laith Kubba, announced that a final version of the document had been decided and compromise reached on three issues, although he did not say which. Sunni leaders said that no consensus had been reached.

Hussein al-Falluji, a Sunni member of the drafting panel, said: "If this constitution continues to include federalism, it should be put in the bin and done again."

The chances of the parliament convening declined by the minute. Kamal Hamdoun, a Sunni negotiator, said the Shia politicians - the dominant force in the national assembly - had not turned up for a meeting.

"They are acting according to the law of force instead of the force of law. We call on all Iraqis to vote No in the constitutional referendum."

Shia politicians made clear that they did not see any need for the parliament to vote. The draft is to be put to a referendum in October.



The drafting began amid the optimism engendered by January's successful elections, when Iraqis turned out to vote in defiance of bombers and gunmen. But US hopes of establishing the first secular democracy in the Arab world have foundered on ethnic and religious divisions.

Gunmen opened fire yesterday on a convoy of cars used by the president but Jalal Talabani was not in it. Four bodyguards were wounded.

In what appeared to be an attempt to inflame sectarian tensions, the bodies of 37 Shia soldiers, killed with a single bullet to the head, were found in a shallow river south of Baghdad, the latest of several such grim discoveries. Police said they had been stripped to their underwear.

The minority Sunnis, who were the masters under Saddam Hussein, are implacably opposed to the federal nature of the constitution. They fear that it will place oil wealth in the hands of the Kurds in the north and the Shia in the south.

The constitutional vacuum drew in another opponent of federalism, the firebrand Shia cleric Moqtada al-Sadr, who was responsible for two uprisings in the south last summer but who has since been quiet.

At least 12 people were killed as his Mahdi Army militia clashed with members of the Iranian-linked Badr Brigade in six cities and a Baghdad suburb. Sadr has now formed common cause with the Sunnis, fearing that federalism will play into the hands of Iran.

The Badr Brigade is the armed wing of the Supreme Council for Islamic Revolution in Iraq, which dominated the elections. It wants the southern states to become a semi-autonomous region with partial control over its revenues and security.

The speed of the violence underlined that even a "defeated" militia such as Sadr's still has a formidable arsenal and that the security forces are nowhere to be seen when the fighting starts.

Armed clashes broke out in British-controlled Basra before dawn but later subsided. In Amarah, where British troops are also stationed, Sadr supporters were reported to have killed five people when they mortared Badr Brigade headquarters.

25 August 2005: Bush rules out any retreat from Iraq
24 August 2005: Sunnis set out to sabotage draft plan for Iraq
23 August 2005: Iraqi leaders pull back in row over new constitution

http://www.wpherald.com/storyview.php?Stor...25-083901-2854r

Extremist site calls for 'cyber jihad'
By Shaun Waterman
UPI Homeland and National Security Editor
Published August 25, 2005


WASHINGTON -- A Web forum for Muslim extremists is calling on its members to organize an Islamic hackers' army to carry out internet attacks against the U.S. government and has posted tips, software, and links to other resources to help would-be holy cyber warriors.

The Jamestown Foundation, a Washington, D.C.-based non-profit with a history of extensive ties to the CIA, says that it has monitored postings on a new section of a jihadi bulletin board called al-Farooq.


According to Jeffrey Poole, a researcher for the foundation, the forum "represents a how-to manual for the disruption and/or destruction of enemy electronic resources, including e-mail, websites and computer hardware."

The new section was set up two weeks ago, says a briefing written by Poole and distributed by the foundation, which adds that one member of the forum has called for the creation of an Islamic cyber-operations organization, which he dubbed "Jaish al-Hacker al-Islami," the Islamic Hacker's Army.

The would-be Islamic cyber-warrior, who calls himself "Achrafe," points out that organization of large numbers of attackers is a key force multiplier in some forms of Web warfare -- such as so-called Denial of Service attacks, where the target's servers are bombarded with so many requests for information from other parts of the internet that they effectively shut down.

The briefing describes in detail a "hacker library" maintained on the al-Farooq site, which includes special software that can be used to steal passwords; tools and tips on anonymous Web surfing; and programs that claim to be able to destroy or disable a target computer if installed on it.

But Ron Gula, a former National Security Agency official who worked on cyber security issues and now runs his own IT company, says that most of the cyber attacks attempted by such groups are "amateurish" and "lost in the background noise" of other hackers and internet criminals.

"Between 1 and 5 percent of the internet is infected (with viruses, spyware, worms or other malicious software) at any one time," Gula told United Press International.

So-called keystroke logs -- which record every letter typed into a computer -- were among the programs offered for download on al-Farouq. The software can be used to learn passwords and login information. Once clandestinely installed on a computer, typically via a virus or an unwitting download, the records of the key strokes are transmitted to the hacker, which can give them access to password-protected computer systems.

Gula said that most of the keystroke logging software available for download on the Web was already known to computer security companies.

The "signatures for (that software) have already been placed in commercially available anti-virus and anti-spyware programs," he said.

The forum also includes tips on how to surf the net anonymously, either using special software which effectively broadcasts a false address during the Web session, or using one of the many freely available anonymous proxy servers. These servers basically mask the hacker's identity.

"Proxy logs can be subpoenaed by law enforcement authorities," says the Jamestown briefing, "but many such servers are maintained in countries reluctant to provide information that compromises online privacy, such as Fiji, Western Samoa and Nauru."

However, the briefing points out, the same anonymity can be achieved by using an unsecured wi-fi network -- private but open wireless networks that provide a doorway to the internet and are increasingly common in apartments, coffee shops and office buildings.

"A person can then effectively use a private wireless network as a proxy server from their car parked on the street or from a coffee shop next door," says the briefing, if they have a wi-fi enabled laptop.

The final category of hacking materials posted on al-Farouq, according to the Jamestown Foundation briefing, are programs designed to damage Windows-based computer systems and websites.

"Most of these utilities promise to erase the target hard disk, or to incapacitate the operating system," says the briefing.

Internet security experts like Gula point out that these techniques are all well-known to hackers -- and to those who work to defeat them.

Defending a government or commercial network against cyber jihadis is no different to defending it from "political activists, cyber criminals, or spotty teenage hackers," said Simon Perry, a vice president at IT services giant Computer Associates.

"Regardless of the motivation behind the attacks, the techniques they'd use are the same," said Perry, who runs the firm's eTrust program. "So if a company or organization is already protecting their critical systems in line with best practices they're already by virtue of that secured against the cyber-terrorist."

Israel boosts W.Bank settlers while quitting Gaza Reuters AlertNet
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EU nations split on response to threat of bird flu MSN Money
European Union countries are split over the best way to respond to the threat of a bird flu pandemic. The Netherlands yesterday ordered farmers to keep poultry inside to prevent bird flu spreading into the country. However, the UK played down the threat posed to domestic fowl from migratory birds. The Department for Environment, Food and Rural Affairs said it was not planning any measures to keep poultry indoors. The split will become even more apparent when veterinary experts from the 25 member states meet on Thursday to discuss the outbreak of the disease which was discovered in Siberia last month. The tough Dutch measures came as Germany was also considering stepping up efforts to avoid infection by the disease, which can kill humans and wreck poultry industries. The discovery of the H5N1 virus in Siberia has triggered concerns that the lethal strain that has killed more than 60 people in south-east Asia could travel across the Urals into Europe, infecting humans and hitting poultry production. While most of its 80m poultry are kept indoors, the Netherlands is concerned an outbreak among its 5.5m free-range birds could ravage the rest of the industry. Fears of the disease arriving in birds migrating from Russia are particularly high in the country because it was badly hit by an outbreak of bird flu in 2003. The spread of the virus two years ago among its nearly 2,000 poultry farmers led to the slaughter of 30m animals at a cost of hundreds of millions of euros. "Poultry farmers are very afraid that this strain will arrive in western Europe. In 2003 many farmers were hit hard by what happened and it took a lot of time for them to get going again. Nobody wants this to happen ever again," said Klass Johan Osinga, of the LTO Dutch farmers' union. The Netherlands last year exported almost €500m worth of eggs, making it the seventh largest producer among the EU's then 15 countries. In 2003 it produced nearly 600,000 tonnes of poultry meat. Dutch farmers will continue to label the produce from the 5.5m birds as free range and organic until told otherwise by the European Commission, Mr Osinga said, as they would still have organic feed and appropriate space. The Dutch moves are the toughest yet imposed in the EU's 25 member states since Russian authorities confirmed the H5N1 strain of bird flu, potentially lethal to humans, in six regions. Russia warned that the disease could spread to Europe and the Middle East, as migratory birds moved into warmer areas before winter after nesting in Siberia. Germany may bring forward a proposed order to keep flocks of poultry in cages to further reduce the risk of the spread of bird flu, as politicians yesterday dragged the issue into the campaign for its general election on September 18. Poultry industry representatives also called for the order to be introduced earlier than planned, but farmers using free-range poultry were more cautious. Thomas Dosch, chair of the Bioland association of ecological farmers said that "exceptions are needed from the order", such as allowing birds to use open-air pens covered by netting. Additional reporting by Tom Warner in Kiev
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Expert's terror warning Australian
OSAMA bin Laden's al-Qa'ida is preparing a terrorist attack on a major financial centre - such as Sydney, Tokyo or Singapore - in an attempt to undermine investor confidence in the region, France's top terrorist investigator has warned. Judge Jean-Louis Bruguiere said some countries in the Asian region were less prepared than the US and Europe for terrorist attacks. In the US, security was increased in the wake of the attacks of September 11, 2001, while bombings in Madrid, and more recently London, have put European police forces on high alert. "We have several elements of information that make us think that countries in this region, especially Japan, could have been targeted," Judge Bruguiere said. The judge, who has organised the arrest of hundreds of terrorist suspects in the past 20 years, said the capacity or desire of al-Qa'ida to destabilise the southeast Asia region had been somewhat overlooked. "We forget that the al-Qa'ida organisation is sharpening its strategy -- more than just focusing on so-called soft targets, it is looking to hit economic and financial centres," he said. "They know the economic reality well. Any attack on a financial market, like Japan, would mechanically have an important economic impact on the confidence of investors. Other countries in this region, such as Singapore and Australia, are also potential targets." In an interview with London's Financial Times, Judge Bruguiere said that there was not enough public consciousness of the terrorist risk. "This lack of consciousness makes it extremely difficult for governments to pass laws that are pro-active and allow their law enforcement and intelligence services to pre-empt attacks and aggressively anticipate threats. "There is more work to be done to sensitise the public to the threat." John Howard agreed and warned that Australia should not imagine it was free from the possibility of a terrorist attack. "We are, in my view, well prepared, but the important thing is not to have an effective response mechanism after the attack. The aim is to try to stop it occurring in the first place," the Prime Minister said. "The best way you do that is by having as good as intelligence as possible and also working very hard to make sure that any people within our own community that might have a disposition to behave like a terrorist is identified and dealt with." Judge Bruguiere visited Australia last month to question Jack Roche, the nation's first homegrown terrorist to be jailed for plotting to bomb Israeli missions in Canberra and Sydney. He is also heading the investigation into suspected al-Qa'ida operative Willie Brigitte. Authorities said Frenchman Brigitte, who married former Australian army signaller Melanie Brown, and worked in a cafe in the southwestern Sydney suburb of Lakemba, was plotting to blow up Australia's electricity grid.
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Five men have been sentenced to death in Pakistan after being found guilty of involvement in a plot to assassinate President Pervez Musharraf.
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Sarabjit a humanitarian issue: Delhi The Statesman
Taking up the issue of Sarabjit Singh with Pakistan for the second consecutive day, India today said it was a “humanitarian” matter and conveyed the strong public sentiment in the country for sparing his life.
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Lebanon's President, Emil Lahoud, accused certain Lebanese sides of aiming to use the report of the UN international investigation committee into the assassination of the former Lebanese prime minister Rafiq al-Hariri against what he called internal politics. Lahoud called on the Lebanese not to pre-judge results of the investigation. For its part, the UN Security Council called on Syria, without mentioning it by name, to cooperate fully with the international cooperation on the assassination of Hariri.
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Death toll from Europe's floods reaches 43 Ireland Online
Swiss authorities started to evacuate parts of the small Alpine town of Brienz today, as the death toll from flooding in Europe rose to 43. Hardest hit was Romania with 31 victims – many of whom drowned as torrents of water rushed into their homes. Austria, Bulgaria, Germany and Switzerland reported a total of 12 dead and large areas remained under water. Two of the six killed in Switzerland were in Brienz, where the body of a woman previously reported missing was found near her home by a sniffer dog yesterday. The dead woman was the mother of the other victim, a teenage girl, Bern cantonal police said. Water levels in Switzerland’s larger mountain lakes are no longer rising and the national weather service MeteoSuisse forecast little rain today, with just a few small showers expected in the Alps. Waters were also receding in Austria, where four deaths have been recorded since the troubles began. Meteorologists predicted heavy rain in southern Austria in the coming days and authorities braced for further mudslides.
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US eye on Japan's polls Asia Times Online
Following in the footsteps of his German counterpart Gerhard Schroeder, Japanese Prime Minister Junichiro Koizumi took a make-or-break political gamble - and in an equally unorthodox manner - in a desperate bid to save his reform drive from the jaws of death. The political fortunes of the leaders of the world's number two and three economies, as well as the fate of their reform programs, are at stake in the elections they called for next month. The elections will be held only a week apart. Apart from their similarities in political style shown in recent weeks, however, Koizumi and Schroeder have adopted sharply contrasting foreign policies on the two interwoven issues of Iraq and relations with the United States - their countries' most important ally during the Cold War. It can be easily imagined that President George W Bush has a strong desire to see the staunchly pro-US Koizumi survive the upcoming vote. Not Schroeder - to say the least. Schroeder can find an ally in Japan over Iraq and the US: Katsuya Okada, leader of the main opposition Democratic Party of Japan (DPJ) now challenging Koizumi's Liberal Democratic Party (LDP). Like Schroeder, Okada is critical of what is widely perceived as Bush's unilateralism. The DPJ leader condemns Koizumi's foreign policy as just following big brother US and calls for the withdrawal of Japanese troops from Iraq by the end of this year.

The big gamble
Koizumi took a political gamble by dissolving the Lower House of the diet, Japan's parliament, on August 8, only hours after the postal privatization bills, the centerpiece of his reform program, were voted down by the Upper House by a vote of 125 to 108. Although Koizumi's LDP and its coalition partner, New Komeito party, together hold a majority in the Upper House, a larger number of LDP lawmakers than the party leadership had expected voted against the bills. Koizumi cannot dissolve the Upper House, so he uses the election as both a means to cleanse the party of dissidents and to revitalize his reforms. The Upper House rejection of the bills followed weeks of fierce internal feuding within the LDP between supporters of his reform programs and what he calls "old-guard conservatives" or "resistance forces". The bills had been passed by the Lower House, the more powerful of the two diet chambers, on July 5, on the strength of the LDP-led coalition's majority, but by a narrow margin of only five votes because of a revolt by about three dozen LDP lawmakers. Koizumi, who had claimed that the killing of the postal bills would be tantamount to a no-confidence vote against him, was quick to carry out his threat to dissolve the Lower House for a snap general election to seek a new mandate for reform programs, especially his pet project to privatize Japan Post, effectively the world's largest financial institution with about US$3 trillion in assets. Koizumi vowed to step down if the LDP-New Komeito coalition failed to secure a majority in the Upper House. When he dissolved the Lower House, Koizumi came under a barrage of criticisms, even from within his LDP, that dissolving the Lower House on the grounds of government-sponsored bills being voted down in the Upper House was an unconstitutional act. Koizumi brushed away the charge. In the general election set for September 11, all 480 seats are up for grabs. The LDP has 212 seats going into the vote, excluding the 37 seats held by dissenters, and New Komeito party has 34 seats. The LDP and New Komeito party have a combined 246 seats, only five seats more than the 241 required for a majority. The DPJ has 175 seats going into the election. Koizumi seems to have wind in his sails. Since he dissolved the Lower House, public support for him has been rising sharply, according to public opinion polls by Japanese newspapers. But there are still three weeks to go before the vote and public opinion is volatile. Autumn winds could suddenly blow in the opposite direction.

Foreign policies issues
In stark contrast with the German leader, Koizumi has been one of the world's staunchest supporters - along with British Prime Minister Tony Blair - of Bush's anti-terrorism campaign, launched in the wake of the September 11, 2001 terrorist attacks on the World Trade Center in New York and the Pentagon, and of his Iraq war. The Koizumi government enacted two new controversial laws to enable the Self-Defense Forces (SDF) to assist US-led military operations in Afghanistan and Iraq. Under the first law, enacted in October 2001, only weeks after September 11, SDF naval vessels were sent to the Indian Ocean to support US-led operations in Afghanistan, where the Islamic fundamentalist Taliban regime had been ousted from power. Under the second law, enacted in August 2003, the Koizumi government at the end of that year dispatched several hundred ground troops to Samawah, southern Iraq, on a humanitarian and reconstruction mission. In December 2004, the government extended the SDF dispatch to Iraq by another year, until the end of this year. The decision came despite strong objections from opposition parties and amid growing concerns about the safety of the Japanese troops. Opinion polls, conducted by news media when the extension was decided, showed that a majority of Japanese were against the decision. Japan and the US are now moving to strengthen security and defense ties based on the bilateral security treaty, including the development and deployment of a missile-defense system to counter the threats of missile attacks from North Korea, which has an estimated 200 or so Rodong missiles capable of striking almost all of Japanese territory. The two countries are expected to reach an agreement later this year on the realignment of US military bases in Japan. The Bush administration is reviewing the role of these bases as part of its military's worldwide "transformation". The role the US expects Japan to play will be that of a "power projection hub" to ensure stability in an "arc of instability", an area stretching from Northeast Asia to the Middle East via Southeast Asia and South Asia. China, a rapidly ascending military and economic power, is alarmed by the US military transformation now underway. There are suspicions in China that the real US motives for the sweeping overhaul of its military's global posture might be what some call the "soft containment" of China. The state of Japan-US relations is now one of the best in history, backed by a personal friendship between Koizumi and Bush. Their chemistry seems good. In stark contrast, Japan's relations with Asian neighbors, especially China and South Korea, have been in recent months at their lowest points. Japan has seen relations with China and South Korea strained seriously by such issues as Koizumi's repeated visits to Tokyo's Yasukuni Shrine, territorial disputes and Tokyo's bid for a permanent seat on the United Nations Security Council. China and South Korea regard the shrine, where some class-A Japanese war criminals, including former prime minister Hideki Tojo, are enshrined with the 2.4 million war dead, as a symbol of Japan's militaristic past. Japan's public opinion is split down the middle over Koizumi's visits to the shrine. Many experts in Japan take Koizumi to task for the current stalemate in ties with the two Asian neighbors, with some even accusing the US-first prime minister of lacking a clear Asia policy.

DPJ's foreign policies
All Japanese political parties have made public their manifestoes, or policy platforms, for the September 11 general election. In its manifesto, the LDP puts strengthening Japan-US alliance first. Improving ties with China and South Korea comes next. In a significant difference with the LDP, the DPJ puts Asia policy first and then Japan-US relations. "It is one of Japan's top priority foreign-policy tasks to rebuild relations with China," the DPJ manifesto says. The manifesto also indirectly criticizes Koizumi for lacking a relationship of trust with top Chinese leaders and calls for the construction of a state-run alternative facility to Yasukuni Shrine to honor the war dead, an idea strongly supported by South Korea but balked at by Koizumi. Regarding ties with the US, the DPJ's policy platform does not use the word "strengthen" as the LDP manifesto does but instead says it wants to see an "evolution" of the bilateral ties and calls for a review of bilateral arrangements, including that of the Status of Forces Agreement (SOFA) within three years. The SOFA, which sets the legal status of American service members stationed in Japan, has been criticized by many in Japan as an unfair arrangement in recent years, especially since the 1995 gang rape of an elementary school girl by three American soldiers in Okinawa. But the Japanese government has been negative about any review of the arrangement out of political consideration to the US. Former DPJ leader Naoto Kan once advocated withdrawal of US Marines to US territories such as Guam and Hawaii from the southernmost Japanese island of Okinawa - where the bulk of more than 40,000 American service members deployed in Japan, mostly Marines, are stationed. On Iraq, the DPJ's manifesto stipulates that the SDF troops should be pulled out by the end of this year, when the current, one-year mandate of their deployment in that country is to expire. Since the Iraq war, the DPJ has claimed that there was no "legitimate reason" for launching the war and that Japanese troops' participation in the US-led multinational forces was in breach of the war-renouncing, post-war Japanese constitution. But the DPJ is not opposed to other relations with the US. In July last year, DPJ leader Okada visited the US. It was his first overseas trip since taking the helm of the opposition party, apparently reflecting his recognition of the importance of Japan-US relations should the DPJ take power. Okada's apparent favorite in the US presidential election in November was Republican President Bush's challenger John F Kerry, who is a Democrat. Okada participated in the Democratic Party convention in Boston during his US trip for talks with Kerry's staff, although he also held talks with some Bush administration officials later.

Differences between Koizumi and Okada
The political backgrounds of Koizumi and Okada may help explain their foreign-policy differences. Former prime minister Takeo Fukuda, Koizumi's mentor, effectively inherited the LDP faction founded by Nobusuke Kishi, who served as prime minister from 1957 to 1960. The LDP faction Fukuda once led is now chaired by former prime minister Yoshiro Mori and called the Mori faction. Koizumi had belonged to the faction, but left it, albeit nominally, after becoming prime minister. Kishi was a hawkish politician and one of the staunchest US allies. He served as commerce and industry minister in the Tojo government. After Japan's defeat in World War II, Kishi was arrested as a suspected class-A war criminal, although he was indemnified and released later. He stepped down after railroading revisions to the 1952 Japan-US security treaty through the diet in 1960 amid raucous diet debate and tumultuous demonstrations across the country, mainly by leftist students and labor unionists. On the largest anti-government protests after the war, some protesters stormed the diet building and clashed with riot police. A female University of Tokyo student died in the protest. The revisions were aimed at correcting what was widely perceived as the unequal nature of the treaty in favor of the US, and the protests were more against Kishi himself for his high-handed handling of the revision issue than against the specific contents of the revised treaty. DPJ leader Okada had belonged to the LDP faction led then by former prime minister Noboru Takeshita before leaving the party along with Ichiro Ozawa, now deputy DPJ leader, and others in 1993 to form a now-defunct new party. Their departure from the LDP led to the party's devastating defeat that year in the general election and its first loss of power since its 1955 founding. The Takeshita faction was a successor to the LDP faction founded by former prime minister Kakuei Tanaka, who reopened Japan's diplomatic relations with China in 1972 and is still revered in China as a "benefactor who dug a well for water-thirsty people". Traditionally, the faction inherited by Kishi, Fukuda and others, including current leader Mori has been the most hawkish of all LDP factions and also pro-US, while the faction inherited by Tanaka, Takeshita and two other former prime ministers - Keizo Obuchi and Ryutaro Hashimoto - has been pro-China. There is much more to it. Koizumi served as a secretary to Fukuda before being first elected to the diet. Tanaka and Fukuda were implacable political rivals within the LDP. Their power struggle driven by strong personal animosity was so fierce that it is still remembered as "kaku-fuku war".

Concerns among conservatives
Despite its campaign rhetoric, the DPJ will become more realistic if it takes power. It is common sense in Japanese political circles that any prime minister would not survive long without the backing of the US administration. Former prime minister Tomiichi Murayama's demarche is a good example. When he became the first socialist Japanese prime minister in nearly five decades in the mid-1990s, Murayama made an about-face in his socialist party's security policy and declared that his government would accept the existence of the SDF and maintain the Japan-US security alliance. Before Murayama became prime minister, the socialist party had insisted that the SDF was unconstitutional and that the Japan-US security alliance be scrapped. The socialist party had been the biggest opposition party for decades after the end of World War II but it is now in danger of extinction due to loss of support. Many former socialist party members now belong to the DPJ. To be sure, the DPJ may just be engaged in the tactic of playing up policy differences with the LDP in hopes of boosting its prospects in the upcoming general election. But concerns about the DPJ's foreign policy are growing in Japan, especially among conservatives. The conservative Japanese daily Yomiuri voiced concerns about the DJP's foreign policy. In an editorial on August 20, the paper said: "We wonder if there is no risk of the Japan-US alliance being shaken by the DPJ's stance. The DPJ needs to give a clearer explanation (about its stance)." The Washington Post has thrown its support behind Koizumi. It said in an editorial on August 15 that Koizumi's defeat would be "awkward" for the US. "Not only is the main opposition party in Japan muddled on economics, but it is critical of the prime minister's pro-US foreign policy and promises to withdraw Japanese troops from Iraq," the paper said. "An election that endorsed those policies would be troubling, as would one that allowed a weakened LDP to remain in office in exchange for ditching Mr Koizumi. With luck, Mr Koizumi will convince the voters that his stand on reform is worth backing. He has a month to make his case." In an apparent attempt to dispel domestic concerns about his foreign policy ahead of the September 11 vote by emphasizing the importance he attaches to ties with the US, Okada said on August 16 that he will choose the US as the destination for his first overseas trip if he becomes the next prime minister. But at the same time Okada made it clear that he would convey a message to Bush: his DPJ government has no intention of budging on the issue of pulling SDF personnel out of Iraq at the end of this year. Hisane Masaki is a Tokyo-based scholar, journalist and commentator on international politics and economy. Masaki's e-mail address is yiu45535@nifty.com
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Need for extra security, money lost to corruption, hinder rebuilding efforts.

http://www.csmonitor.com/2005/0826/dailyUpdate.html

http://www.alertnet.org/thenews/newsdesk/L26663687.htm

One hundred thousand Shi'ites protest Iraq charter
26 Aug 2005 15:02:55 GMT

Source: Reuters

REUTERS/THAIER AL-SUDANI By Michael Georgy

BAGHDAD, Aug 26 (Reuters) - A hundred thousand Iraqis across the country marched on Friday in support of a maverick Shi'ite cleric opposed to a draft constitution that U.S.-backed government leaders say will deliver a brighter future.

The protest could reinforce the opposition of Sunni Arabs who dominate the insurgency and are bitterly against the draft.

Supporters of young Shi'ite firebrand Moqtada al-Sadr, who has staged two uprisings against U.S. troops, also protested against poor services during their marches, stepping up the pressure on the government.

A hundred thousand Sadr supporters marched in eight cities, including 30,000 people who gathered for a sermon delivered on his behalf in a Baghdad slum district.

They hardly noticed a huge government poster which read "One Nation, One People, One Constitution", instead seeking guidance from Sadr who inspires fierce devotion in his followers.

Sadr returned to centre stage this week after his fighters fought a rival Shi'ite militia, the Badr organisation, raising fears of a new front in Iraq's relentless cycle of violence.

He is stirring hopes among his vast following at a time when Iraq's divided politicians have missed a series of deadlines for reaching a consensus on the constitution, which is expected to be put to a referendum in October.

Sadr has also come out in support of Sunni opposition to the federal state that his Shi'ite rivals in government, with their Kurdish allies, have outlined in the charter.

"Bush and America out," yelled cleric Abdel-Zahra al-Suwaidid, reading a statement on Sadr's behalf in the Baghdad slum of Sadr City which is named after his revered father, a cleric allegedly killed by Saddam Hussein's agents.

Another widespread complaint was written simply on banners: "We want water, we want electricity."

The young cleric has gained followers by portraying himself as a champion of the poor. Sadr's cult-like popularity means he can quickly mobilise his fighters if a full-scale conflict with the Badr movement breaks out.

CULT VERSUS CONSTITUTION

Young boys wore T-shirts with images of Sadr and his father as others played a song on a scratchy cassette which repeated "Oh Moqtada, Oh Moqtada" over and over.

"I like Sayyid Moqtada," said eight-year-old Montadhir Taei, using Sadr's religious title.

It was clear his elders have been influencing him: "Iraqis should write the constitution, not the Americans," he said.

The image of Sadr, a burly figure with a turban, was pasted on a water tank carried by a teenager spraying cool water at the crowd of tens of thousands under a cruel sun in Baghdad.

Sadr, who has denied U.S. and Iraqi government accusations he ordered the killing of a rival cleric, assumed a low profile after a U.S. offensive against his forces last year in Najaf.

Now he faces the Iranian-trained Badr movement, which some Iraqis accuse of operating in hit squads alongside government forces. Badr officials and the government deny the accusations.

Sadr's supporters say Badr militiamen attacked his office in Najaf on Wednesday, and clashes then erupted in several cities. A Badr official denied any involvement. Eight people were killed, health officials said.

"These people just want power and money. You go ask the Interior Ministry who did this," said Hussein Saleh, referring to the Badr movement.

The fighting between the two groups across several cities raised the spectre of a new security crisis in Iraq, already ravaged by a Sunni Arab insurgency that has killed thousands of Iraqi police and soldiers, civilians and U.S. troops.

At the Baghdad protest, fighters in Sadr's Mehdi Army stood alert on rooftops with assault rifles as speakers condemned the United States.

Some of Sadr's authority comes from credentials of his slain father, Mohammed Sadeq al-Sadr.

"We don't need a constitution because Mohammed al-Sadr's writing is our constitution," said Mohammed Ubeidi, 26, sitting below a wall-clock dominated by pictures of Moqtada and his father.


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Al-Sadr a potent force primed to explode
After lying low for months, a firebrand cleric's followers have emerged to attack rival Sunnis in a new battlefront
August 27, 2005
MOQTADA al-Sadr, whose fighters clashed with rival Shi'ite factions this week, has again returned to centre stage in the new Iraq but this time the stakes are much higher.

As Shi'ite and Kurdish government leaders struggled to placate the minority Sunnis and push through an Iraqi constitution Sadr fiercely opposes, his spokesman warned that his Mehdi Army militia could be quickly mobilised after fighting erupted with administration-linked Shi'ites, killing seven and wounding dozens.

Sadr, scion of a respected Shi'ite clerical dynasty who led two uprisings against US troops last year, has set a pattern of lengthy periods of silence followed by dramatic entrances.

Clashes in the holy city of Najaf, in Baghdad and elsewhere could offer Sadr an opportunity to reassert himself at a time of uncertainty, a skill he has mastered since the fall of Saddam Hussein in 2003.

This week he reminded the US-backed government how quickly he can stir passions when thousands of his supporters protested against the draft constitution, stepping up pressure on Iraqi leaders exhausted after weeks of wrangling over the charter.









Capitalising on frustrations among Iraqis over hardships since the US-led invasion in March 2003, Sadr has won followers by speaking out for the poor and defying US military firepower.

Sadr, who was charged with murder in connection with the killing of a rival cleric in 2003 but has not been arrested, also relies on his heritage for some of his authority.

His father, Ayatollah Mohammed Sadeq al-Sadr, paid with his life for defying Saddam Hussein. He and two elder sons were murdered in 1999, probably by Saddam's agents.

Sadr's uncle, Mohammed Baqer, was also allegedly killed by Saddam in 1980 after calling for an Iranian-style Islamic republic.

A nervous Iraqi Prime Minister Ibrahim al-Jaafari swiftly appeared live on television after the Najaf fighting, appealed for calm and paid tribute to Sadr's family. Sadr later appealed for calm and told his supporters to return to their homes. He has gained popularity by delivering fiery nationalistic speeches.

He has a wide following in Baghdad's Sadr City, a slum named after his father and home to many of his fighters armed with assault rifles and rocket-propelled grenades.

Made up of ordinary Iraqis such as labourers, vegetable vendors and butchers, the Mehdi Army is a highly mobile force with members in Baghdad and the Shi'ite heartland in the south.

They carry posters of Sadr and his father and perform a war dance before confrontations.

Within days of Saddam's fall, Sadr, aged about 30, was seeking to rouse Iraq's long-oppressed Shi'ite majority against the US-led occupiers and their Iraqi allies. When the former US-led administration in Iraq closed down his newspaper and arrested a key aide last year, the result was not capitulation, but a revolt.

Even Iraq's top Shi'ite cleric, Ayatollah Ali al-Sistani, has trodden warily around Sadr, refusing to condemn his actions despite the upset they caused among Shi'ite elders.

Reuters

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Iraqi Shiites Vow To Submit Charter

By Jonathan Finer and Omar Fekeiki

BAGHDAD, Aug. 27 -- As another midnight deadline to complete a draft constitution passed Friday without definitive agreement among Iraq's main factions, ruling Shiite Muslim parties said they would present a final version to the National Assembly this weekend with no further changes, even though it was rejected by several Sunni Arab leaders.

As some lawmakers said negotiations were continuing into the early hours of Saturday and others claimed an accord had been reached that many Sunnis would endorse, government spokesman Laith Kubba told al-Arabiya television that "consensus is almost impossible at this point."

"The draft should be put before the people," he said, referring to the nationwide referendum on the document that must be held by Oct. 15. Many Sunni Arab leaders have urged their followers to vote against the constitution, which can be rejected if two-thirds of the voters in at least three of Iraq's 18 provinces oppose it.

The completed document will be presented to the National Assembly on Saturday or Sunday with or without Sunni backing, Humam Hamoudi, a Shiite who is chairman of the constitution-writing committee, told the Associated Press.

Also Friday, the U.S. military said it launched multiple strikes with F-18 fighter jets against a house in the western town of Husaybah that local informants said was sheltering about 50 suspected insurgents from the group al Qaeda in Iraq. The military said the number of casualties had not been determined.

The highly politicized process of writing Iraq's constitution revealed and reinforced deep divisions among Iraq's Shiite and Sunni Arabs and ethnic Kurds, raising fears that disagreements could spiral into factional conflict.

In an attempt to foster consensus, an Aug. 15 deadline for completing a draft was postponed by one week and subsequently extended twice more. Friday's was the first deadline to pass without an official statement granting more time, as a news conference scheduled for just before midnight was canceled.

In recent days, President Bush, who along with other U.S. officials had urged Iraqi leaders to complete their work on time, personally intervened by telephoning Abdul Aziz Hakim, leader of the largest Shiite political party, the Supreme Council for the Islamic Revolution in Iraq, to encourage conciliation with the Sunnis. U.S. and Iraqi officials have long maintained that inclusion of the Sunni Arabs, a once-dominant minority who now make up much of the violent insurgency, is a key to stability and the eventual withdrawal of American troops.

In Washington, a senior State Department official involved in Iraq policy said: "What we're witnessing is the endgame of this process. Events are moving in a positive direction. They're continuing to work these issues, but they're moving in the right direction."

Deliberations bogged down Friday over two contentious issues that were as much about Iraq's troubled past as its future: whether and how to bar former members of Saddam Hussein's Baath Party from political life, and the extent and method by which to devolve power from the federal government to autonomous regions that suffered greatly under Hussein's rule.

Shiites said they offered to eliminate language outlawing the Baath Party, whose top officials were mostly Sunnis, while retaining a ban on its "Saddamist" branch and symbols. They also offered to permit the National Assembly, by a majority vote, to eliminate the so-called de-Baathification committee charged with removing former party members from government service.

On federalism, or the ability of Iraq's provinces to form regional governments, Shiites said they proposed enshrining the principle of federalism in the constitution while leaving the details of how federal regions should be formed to future lawmakers. Some Shiites said they had agreed to have the constitution stipulate that no new regional governments be formed for at least two years.

"This is the last offer we have. We cannot go back anymore," said Nabeel Mousawi, a member of the constitution committee from the ruling Shiite alliance. "If we keep fulfilling their demands, it would be better to go back to Saddam's government, because the alliance believes that the only benefit we got from the war was to get rid of the Baath Party and to gain federal states."

Sunnis, however, say that extending federalism beyond the existing Kurdish regional government in the north could lead to partition of the country. They strongly oppose a potential Shiite state in the south.

"What they have proposed will only create division and disturbance," said Saleh Mutlak, a Sunni member of the constitution committee. "People should reject this constitution."

Abdul Nasser Janabi, another Sunni on the committee, said: "There are many disputes that we cannot agree on. Some of their suggestions are positive, like to delay of the issue of federalism. . . . We want this issue to be postponed as a whole, but they want to postpone it in a way that guarantees it in the constitution."

Despite the dissenting voices, Kurdish and Shiite leaders said as broad an agreement as possible had been reached and largely dismissed the objections of Sunnis who they said did not truly represent their communities.

"I think for all intents and purposes we have a deal. We have a draft that cannot be improved upon," said Planning Minister Barham Salih, a Kurd. "No one could be entirely happy with what we have, but while some are opposed, many Sunnis expressed happiness."

As factional leaders huddled in Baghdad's fortified Green Zone for talks, large crowds took to the streets across the country, a reminder that whatever the outcome of the protracted negotiations, the constitution's fate lies with the people.

More than 3,000 demonstrators, many of them Sunnis opposed to the constitution, gathered in Baqubah, north of the capital. Marchers chanted Baath Party slogans and carried large posters of Hussein. Police fired shots in the air to disperse the crowd after about half an hour.

In the northern city of Kirkuk, police officers and Iraqi soldiers joined about 2,000 demonstrators bearing banners that read "The Baathists are loyal Iraqis" and "No to federalism."

The largest demonstrations of the day were inspired by the influential Shiite cleric Moqtada Sadr, who has yet to make public his opinion on the constitution but whose stated opposition to federalism mirrors that of many Sunnis.

About 20,000 followers of Sadr marched in their stronghold of Sadr City, a sprawling slum in eastern Baghdad. The protest was a show of force by the movement, whose militiamen briefly battled rival Shiite fighters this week in a simmering rivalry over influence, ideology and power among the country's Shiite majority.

The movement convened other demonstrations in several cities in southern Iraq, protesting a dearth of social services that remains the overwhelming complaint of most Iraqis.

"We demand the addressing of the sharp lack in daily services," one banner read.

Correspondent Anthony Shadid and special correspondents Naseer Nouri and Bassam Sebti in Baghdad, special correspondent Saad Sarhan in Najaf, and staff writers Robin Wright and Mike Allen in Washington contributed to this report.

http://www.washingtonpost.com/ac2/wp-dyn/e...er=emailarticle

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