Iraqi Police Academy Attacked Again by Bombers New York Times
A suicide bomber detonated his car at the gates of the police academy today, killing at least seven people and wounding 30 in the second attack in as many days on the Iraqi police.
Iraq bleeds in run-up to referendum Independent Online
10 Iraqis Killed in Suicide Car Bombing Guardian Unlimited
ABC Online - Boston Globe - San Francisco Chronicle - Houston Chronicle - all 452 related »

A majority of Britons now want Blair to issue a timetable for withdrawal from Iraq.


http://www.csmonitor.com/2005/0926/dailyUpdate.html

10 killed in Baghdad suicide bombing Ireland Online
A suicide car bomber attacked a police checkpoint guarding several government ministries as Iraqi employees arrived for work this morning, killing at least seven policemen and three workers, police said.
10 Iraqis Killed in Suicide Car Bombing ABC News
Suicide car bomber kills 7 in Baghdad CNN International
AKI - Mainichi Daily News - Xinhua - all 115 related »

Bomb Kills 10 in Baghdad:

10 people were killed and 30 wounded when a suicide bomber rammed his car into a bus carrying employees of Iraq's oil ministry near a police academy
http://www.alertnet.org/thenews/newsdesk/ALI643099.htm


Suicide Car Bomber Kills 6 Iraqi Policemen:

A suicide car bomber attacked a police checkpoint guarding several government ministries on Monday morning, killing at least six people and wounding 13
http://tinyurl.com/9xq2h


Gunmen kill 5 teachers in Iraq primary school: -

Gunmen killed five Shi'ite primary school teachers and a driver in a school in Iskandariya, south of Baghdad on Monday, a spokesman for Babel police said.
http://www.alertnet.org/thenews/newsdesk/ALI645016.htm


2 U.S. Soldiers Killed By IED:

Two U.S. Soldiers died when their vehicle was struck by an improvised explosive device early Sept. 26 in western Baghdad.
http://tinyurl.com/bfxws


U.S. Soldier killed by IED:

A 42nd Military Police Brigade Soldier was killed 50 miles southeast of Baghdad, Sept 26 when his vehicle was struck by an improvised explosive device.
http://tinyurl.com/aljco


Shia in Baghdad join attack on US :

Eight Iraqis were killed in the clashes yesterday in Sadr City, a vast slum outside Baghdad. The fighting follows the upsurge of violence faced by British forces in the Shia south.
http://www.informationclearinghouse.info/article10393.htm


Were British Special Forces Soldiers Planting Bombs in Basra?:

Does anyone remember the shock with which the British public greeted the revelation four years ago that one of the members of the Real IRA unit whose bombing attack in Omagh on August 15, 1998 killed twenty-nine civilians had been a double agent, a British army soldier?
http://tinyurl.com/84hk5


What Basra has, many covet :

The funnel-shaped southern region of Iraq contains energy, water and strategic wealth without parallel anywhere else in the country. In fact, some analysts think Iraq would not be viable without it.
http://tinyurl.com/87bfd


Blair out of step as voters swing behind Iraq withdrawal :

Tony Blair is at now at odds with the public over keeping troops in Iraq according to a Guardian/ICM poll published today which shows that voters want Britain to set a timetable for pulling troops out of the country despite the worsening security situation.
http://tinyurl.com/9z3pv

Iraq's foreign fighters: few but deadly
A new report says foreigners make up 4 to 10 percent of Iraq's 30,000
insurgents. By Dan Murphy
http://www.csmonitor.com/2005/0927/p01s03-woiq.html?s=hns

http://www.washingtonpost.com/wp-dyn/conte...601442_pf.htmlI


raq's Draft Constitution Is Said to Deepen Divide

By Robin Wright
Washington Post Staff Writer
Tuesday, September 27, 2005; A18



Iraq's proposed constitution -- and the process used to draft it -- have deepened the divide among Iraq's factions and will likely trigger civil war unless changes are negotiated quickly to accommodate the concerns of Sunni Muslims, warned a new report by the International Crisis Group.

The report comes less than three weeks before an Oct. 15 referendum on Iraq's proposed constitution. The ICG calls on the Bush administration to engage in a "last-ditch, determined effort" to broker a compromise among the country's three largest ethnic and religious groups.

"Unless the flaws of its draft constitution can be corrected in the next few weeks before the Iraqi people vote on it, Iraq is likely to slide toward full-scale civil war and the break-up of the country," says the ICG, an independent, nonprofit nongovernmental organization working to resolve conflict in 50 countries on four continents.

The group charges that the constitution was rushed, which cost the process any possibility of consensus. Critical parts of the constitution -- notably on the federal arrangements that will decentralize power -- are also so vague that they already "carry the seeds of future discord," the report says.

Because Iraq's oil resources are largely in the Shiite south and the Kurdish-dominated north, Sunnis are left feeling marginalized and facing a future in a landlocked region bereft of resources, it said.

"The main danger is that the constitution ratifies and exacerbates the sectarian divisions within the country," Robert Malley, director of ICG's Middle East program, said in an interview yesterday. "Both the process through which it was done and the content are deepening the divide between Kurds and Shiites on one side and the Sunnis on the other. If the constitution is only approved by only two of the three communities, it will only be a confirmation of Iraq's sectarian and ethnic divisions rather than an attempt to overcome them. This has not advanced the process of reconciliation; it . . . more likely is a step backward."

Because the constitution is likely to pass, the report concludes that the only option left is for a concerted U.S. effort to reach a new political agreement on steps that can be taken after the political process plays out in the October referendum and in the December elections for a permanent government. The agreement could then be implemented either through constitutional amendment or legislation, ICG proposed.

© 2005 The Washington Post Company

US official: Al Qaeda's No. 2 in Iraq killed CNN
US and Iraqi forces are trying to deal with a stubborn insurgency in the Euphrates River valley. A man believed to be al Qaeda's No.
Zarqawi aide killed in Iraq Guardian Unlimited
Gunmen execute six Iraqis at school Minneapolis Star Tribune (subscription)
Ireland Online - Bloomberg - Reuters AlertNet - New York Post - all 49 related »

- U.K. Reports Of Iraq Pullout Played Down
http://www.spacewar.com/news/iraq-05zzzj.html

London (SPX) Sep 27, 2005 - The British Ministry of Defense and Foreign Office have played down reports the country's forces may start to withdraw from Iraq next May, saying while it was hoped security conditions would allow some troops to return in the course of 2006, no date had yet been set.

- Politics & Policies: Peril Of Iraq Breakup
http://www.spacewar.com/news/iraq-05zzzk.html

- Commentary: Think Again In Iraq
http://www.spacewar.com/news/iraq-05zzzl.html

Iraq says Al-Qaeda number two killed Forbes
Iraq said it had killed Al-Qaeda's number two in the country, a claim denied by the group, as a suicide bomb attack on a police recruitment centre south of Baghdad left 10 people dead.
No. 2 Leader of al-Qaida in Iraq Killed ABC News
US official: Al Qaeda's No. 2 in Iraq killed CNN
San Diego Union Tribune - CBC News - Reuters AlertNet - Scotsman - all 418 related »

The International Crisis Group has emerged as a consistent source of realistic briefing on Iraq. The following analysis looks at the dynamics that may be set in motion if the draft Iraqi constitution is endorsed at the referendum on October 15.

Middle East Briefing N°19
26 September 2005

OVERVIEW

Instead of healing the growing divisions between Iraq's three principal communities -- Shiites, Kurds and Sunni Arabs -- a rushed constitutional process has deepened rifts and hardened feelings. Without a strong U.S.-led initiative to assuage Sunni Arab concerns, the constitution is likely to fuel rather than dampen the insurgency, encourage ethnic and sectarian violence, and hasten the country's violent break-up.
At the outset of the drafting process in June-July 2005, Sunni Arab inclusion was the litmus test of Iraqi and U.S. ability to defeat the insurgency through a political strategy. When U.S. brokering brought fifteen Sunni Arab political leaders onto the Constitutional Committee, hopes were raised that an all-encompassing compact between the communities might be reached as a starting point for stabilizing the country. Regrettably, the Bush administration chose to sacrifice inclusiveness for the sake of an arbitrary deadline, apparently in hopes of preparing the ground for a significant military draw-down in 2006. As a result, the constitution-making process became a new stake in the political battle rather than an instrument to resolve it.
Rushing the constitution produced two casualties. The first was consensus. Sunni Arabs felt increasingly marginalized from negotiations beginning in early August when these were moved from the Constitutional Committee to an informal forum of Shiite and Kurdish leaders, and have refused to sign on to the various drafts they were shown since that time. The text that has now been accepted by the Transitional National Assembly, in their view, threatens their existential interests by implicitly facilitating the country's dissolution, which would leave them landlocked and bereft of resources.
The second casualty was the text itself. Key passages, such as those dealing with decentralization and with the responsibility for the power of taxation, are both vague and ambiguous and so carry the seeds of future discord. Many vital areas are left for future legislation that will have less standing than the constitution, be more vulnerable to amendment and bear the sectarian imprint of the Shiite community given its likely dominance of future legislatures.
On 15 October 2005, Iraqis will be asked, in an up-or-down referendum, to embrace a weak document that lacks consensus. In what may be the worst possible outcome, it is likely to pass, despite overwhelming Sunni Arab opposition. The Kurdish parties and Grand Ayatollah Ali al-Sistani have a proven ability to bring out their followers, and the Sunni Arabs are unlikely to clear the threshold of two thirds in three provinces required to defeat it. Such a result would leave Iraq divided, an easy prey to both insurgents and sectarian tensions that have dramatically increased over the past year.
The U.S. has repeatedly stated that it has a strategic interest in Iraq's territorial integrity but today the situation appears to be heading toward de facto partition and full-scale civil war. Options for salvaging the situation gradually are running out. Unfortunately, it is now too late to renegotiate the current document before the 15 October constitutional referendum or to set it aside altogether, postpone the referendum and start the process afresh with a new, more representative parliament following new legislative elections. The best of bad options having evaporated, all that may be left is for the U.S. to embark on a last-ditch, determined effort to broker a true compromise between Shiites, Kurds and Sunni Arabs that addresses core Sunni Arab concerns without crossing Shiite or Kurdish red lines. This would require that:
•
the U.S. sponsor negotiations to reach a political agreement prior to 15 October concerning steps the parties would commit to take after the December elections, whether through legislation or constitutional amendment. Should such an agreement be achieved, its implementation would be guaranteed by the U.S.;

•
the parties agree, as part of this process, to limit to four the number of governorates that could become a region through fusion, thereby assuaging Sunni Arab fears of a Shiite super region in the South;

•
the parties also agree that Iraqis will not be excluded from public office or managerial positions on the basis of mere membership in the Baath Party.



With positions having become more polarized and entrenched, there is strong reason to doubt whether such a strategy can succeed. But given the stakes, the U.S. cannot afford not to try.


Amman/Brussels, 26 September 2005

US is logging gains against Al Qaeda in Iraq
The US military says improved intelligence led to the killing of two
key leaders of the group. By Jill Carroll and Dan Murphy
http://www.csmonitor.com/2005/0928/p01s01-woiq.html?s=hns

Twenty-two bodies discovered in Iraq :

The bodies of 22 men, shot dead and partially eaten by dogs, were found Tuesday in open countryside in eastern Iraq near the Iranian border, an interior ministry official said.
http://tinyurl.com/doygx


16 Killed In Continuing Violence:

At least 10 Iraqis were killed and 28 injured when a suicide bomber attacked a large crowd of people outside a police recruiting centre in the town of Baquba
http://www.alertnet.org/thenews/newsdesk/KHA733196.htm


US troops kill 4 civilians in western Iraq :

US troops on Tuesday opened fire randomly at civilians in central Ramadi, a western city of Iraq, killing four people and wounding five others, medics said.
http://www.informationclearinghouse.info/article10414.htm



Two soldiers from Wisconsin National Guard unit killed in Iraq
http://tinyurl.com/dk9cx



Families flee Samara ahead of planned offensive:

Nearly 500 families had so far fled the city. Many were presently in the outskirts, particularly around al-Dur, al-Salam, Baghdad and within empty schools and government buildings near the city of Tikrit.
http://www.irinnews.org/report.asp?ReportID=49247


AL-Sistani Will Not Tell People How To Vote On Constitution:

The office of Iraq's influential Shiite cleric Ayatollah Ali al-Sistani has issued a statement denying local media reports that he has issued a fatwa, or religious edict, telling Shiite Muslims to vote 'yes' in the referendum on Iraq's constitution on October 15. "
http://tinyurl.com/c2q4a



Iraq Sunnis Urge Charter Block, Mull Civil Disobedience :

Up to 200 Iraqi Sunni politicians and scholars have pressed for voting down the draft constitution in the October referendum and threatened to declare civil disobedience if the US-led onslaughts on Sunni towns continue.
http://www.islam-online.net/English/News/2...article04.shtml


Al-Qaida denies aide to Zarqawi killed in Iraq :

An internet statement denied on Tuesday reports that the right-hand man of Abu Musab al-Zarqawi, the most wanted militant in Iraq, has been killed by US forces.
http://tinyurl.com/7c7xs

Jamal R. Nassar : A Way Out of Iraq :

In a recent visit to the region, I was told over and over that the United States will never leave Iraq and will surely create permanent military bases there. I hope and pray that they are wrong.
http://www.informationclearinghouse.info/article10413.htm

http://www.tompaine.com/articles/20050927/...se_baathism.php

Reverse Ba'athism
Robert Dreyfuss
September 27, 2005


Robert Dreyfuss is a freelance writer based in Alexandria, Va., who specializes in politics and national security issues. He is a contributing editor at The Nation, a contributing writer at Mother Jones, a senior correspondent for The American Prospect, and a frequent contributor to Rolling Stone. His book, Devil's Game: How the United States Helped Unleash Fundamentalist Islam, will be published by Henry Holt/Metropolitan Books in the fall.

A leading Iraqi voice in favor of a negotiated power-sharing arrangement between Sunni and Shiite forces in Iraq charged this weekend that militias in the service of the U.S.-backed Iraqi government in Baghdad tried to kill him, former Prime Minister Iyad Allawi, and other secular Iraqi nationalists by planting a car bomb in the Baghdad neighborhood where they live.

Aiham Al Sammarae, a former minister of electricity in Allawi's government, says that the bomb was discovered and defused. "I live next door to Allawi," says Sammarae, who returned to Iraq from a conference of leading Iraqi Sunnis in Amman, Jordan, on Sunday. "We found a car bomb behind Allawi's house. It would have destroyed the entire neighborhood." According to Sammarae, who spoke to me in a lengthy telephone interview from a hotel in Amman, militias tied to the Iraqi government are conducting death squad-style attacks against Sunnis who oppose the Iraqi regime, which is controlled by a pair of ultra-religious, sectarian parties. "A lot of our guys are being killed," he says. The attacks are being carried out "by the government, by militias that are part of the government."

For the past several months, Sammarae has tried to coax various Iraqi resistance groups, mostly Sunni, to embrace talks with the United States over a ceasefire and U.S. withdrawal from Iraq. At least eleven of the mainstream Iraqi opposition groups—including former Iraqi military officers, Baathists, and nationalist tribal leader, but not the jihadists tied to the Zarqawi-led Al Qaeda forces—have established links with Sammarae. Last week, Sammarae told me, he announced the executive committee of his National Assembly for the Unity and Reconstruction of Iraq, an organization of Sunni and Shiite oppositionists who want a negotiated end to the Iraqi insurgency. Leading the committee are Abdullah Al Dulaimi, from the Iraqi resistance, and Hussein Al Kalidar, a prominent Iraqi Shiite leader. "There are many other members," said Sammarae. "I am the spokesman."

But, within days of the announcement, Abdullah Al Dulaimi vanished. "He is the head of the movement, and after one week, he disappeared," says Sammarae. "I don't know if he is scared and went underground, or if [the militias] picked him up. We cannot talk with him. We cannot contact him."

Needless to say, despite the critical importance of the work of Sammarae and his allies, none of this news has been mentioned in the mainstream media. Virtually all U.S. news coverage is devoted to the insurgency—and to atrocities committed by Abu Musab Al Zarqawi's terrorists—but almost never mentioned is the nationwide pattern of death squad activity aimed at nationalists, Baathists, and former Iraqi military officers. In Basra, for example, where two writers for the New York Times have been executed, assassination-style, in recent weeks, hardly any attention—except for the work of Newsday's Tim Phelps and a handful of others—has been paid to the thousands of murders carried out by government-linked killers. Virtually no one who opposes the new regime in Baghdad is safe. Using Saddam Hussein-like terror tactics, the militia tied to the ruling Supreme Council for the Islamic Revolution in Iraq, an Iranian-backed paramilitary force, are eliminating the regime's moderate opponents. "A lot of these guys are being killed," says Sammarae.

You'd think the fact the government created and installed by the United States is using tactics associated with the dictator who was toppled by the March 2003, U.S. invasion would be news. But you'd be wrong. The fundamentalist-led regime is portrayed as the victim of terrorist attacks in one-sided coverage, while the regime's brutal methods go mostly unmentioned.

So dangerous is the situation in Iraq for anti-government activists that Sunni leaders who wanted to map out their campaign to vote down the draft Iraqi constitution on Oct. 15 had to meet in Amman, Jordan, for security reasons. Not only did this extraordinary fact by and large escape the notice of U.S. newspapers, but not a single major U.S. news outlet bothered to cover the three-day opposition meeting in Amman.

Despite lip service in Washington for a policy to include Sunni oppositionists in a broad coalition government in Baghdad, U.S. policy is having precisely the opposite effect: driving Sunnis into a more hard-line stance against the government and destroying any possibility of a national accord. U.S. military operations, such as the recent assault on Tal Afar in northern Iraq, are intensifying just two weeks before the country is to go to the polls. "How," asks Sammarae, "can the United States attack Sunni cities so heavily now, and the election is in a few weeks? What message are you sending? People I talk to tell me, 'Shut up. How can we participate in talks? They are attacking us.'" Operations like the Tal Afar are increasingly carried out not just by U.S. troops but by thug-like armed forces comprised of Shiite and Kurdish militiamen armed and trained by the United States—a policy almost calculated to enrage and alienate the Sunni population.

Still, Sammarae holds out a slight hope that some sort of truce can be reached, and that the resistance will be invited to participate in Iraq's future. At a lower level—at the level of U.S. field commanders, junior State Department officials, and CIA operations people—there are contacts between the United States and the Iraqi resistance. "The U.S. is talking with more people than before," says Sammarae. "The State Department is pushing in that direction heavily. And the CIA is more involved, at least according to my information." Even Sammarae himself has received encouragement to pursue the peace initiatives led by the National Assembly for the Unity and Reconstruction of Iraq from mid-level U.S. State Department officials. But, at the higher levels, among the Bush administration's stay-the-course leadership, there is zero receptiveness to a deal with the Sunnis.

Allawi, too—a secular Shiite opposed to SCIRI and the Islamist fanatics in charge in Baghdad—is similarly engaged in talks with the Iraqi resistance. (Indeed, during his tenure as prime minister under the interim government in 2004, Allawi quietly met with Sunni resistance leaders, to the consternation of U.S. neoconservatives and Pentagon officials.) Sammarae, and probably Allawi, would favor some sort of international conference in Amman to bring together the resistance, the Baghdad government, and U.S. forces. "I think Jordan would be the best place for something like this," says Sammarae. "I think they would be the most reasonable. And even though they are Sunnis, the Shia accept them. But the United States has to give [King Abdullah of Jordan] more support, so he can operate more freely." So far, according to Sammarae—and confirmed by sources in Washington—there is no sign that the Bush administration is ready either to open serious talks with the Sunnis or to encourage Jordan, whose king just completed a lengthy U.S. visit, to pursue a peace strategy.

Private Gets 3 Years for Iraq Prison Abuse New York Times
Pfc. Lynndie England, a 22-year-old clerk in the Army who was photographed with naked Iraqi detainees at Abu Ghraib prison, was sentenced on Tuesday to three years in prison and a dishonorable discharge for her role in the scandal.

Lynndie England arrived at the courthouse today in Fort Hood, Tex., to begin the sentencing phase of her trial.
After the sentence was announced, Private England hung her head and cried briefly before hugging her mother, one of the few signs of emotion she showed in the six-day trial. She had been found guilty on Monday of one count of conspiracy to maltreat prisoners, four counts of maltreatment and one count of committing an indecent act. She made no comment on Tuesday as she was led out of the courthouse in handcuffs and leg shackles. Earlier in the day, though, she took the stand and apologized for abusing the prisoners, saying her conduct was influenced by Specialist Charles A. Graner Jr., her boyfriend at the time. She said she was "embarrassed" when photographs showing her posing next to naked detainees became public in 2004. "I was used by Private Graner," she said. "I didn't realize it at the time." Specialist Graner was reduced in rank after he was convicted in January as ringleader of the abuse. Often groping for words and staring downward, Private England directed her apology to the detainees and to any American troops and their families who might have been injured or killed as a result of the insurgency in Iraq gaining strength. Prosecutors argued on Tuesday that the anti-American feeling generated in Arab and Muslim countries by the Abu Ghraib scandal justified sentencing Private England to four to six years in prison and dishonorably discharging her from the Army. The charges the jury found her guilty of on Monday carried a maximum penalty of nine years. "I can't think of another incident that has more tarnished the reputation of the United States Army," Capt. Chris Graveline, the lead prosecutor, told the jury of five officers, several of whom have served in Iraq. "Has this abuse had an impact on our war in Iraq? Definitely." But Private England's lawyer, Capt. Jonathan Crisp, urged them to "let her go home" to West Virginia without prison time and live with the "stigma" of what she had done. Appealing to the jury as a mother, Private England described her fear after the photos of the mistreatment became public. She said she was scared she would be sent to prison, separated from her young son, whose father is Private Graner. "I was scared I'd have to leave him and he wouldn't know me when I returned, and he wouldn't view me as his mother, he'd view me as a stranger," she said. Private England will be eligible for parole after a year, prosecutors said. She can also appeal the sentence, the third longest received by the nine soldiers found guilty in the Abu Ghraib abuse. She said she was drawn to Specialist Graner, a member of the same unit, because he showered her with attention and made her feel safe. "He was very charming, funny and at the time it looked to me like he was interested in the same things I was," she said. "Now I know it was all an act, to lure me in, I guess." Testifying earlier in the day for the defense, Private Graner conceded that Private England had been susceptible to his influence. "She's young," he said. "She's suggestible, sir." Prosecutors told jurors to discount Private England's post-conviction apology. Captain Graveline read names of Iraqi prisoners forced into sexually humiliating poses in the pictures with Private England. "The accused stands up and says, 'I apologize for the photographs,' " he said. "O.K., but what about the abuse?" Defense lawyers also sought to show that Abu Ghraib was a chaotic, unpleasant place that was frequently under attack. Due to personnel shortages, support soldiers like Private England were sometimes called on to assist prison guards, they said. Stjepan Mestrovic, a sociology professor at Texas A&M University who was called by the defense, said the officers in charge were responsible for confusion about rules of conduct and unclear lines of authority. "She was caught up in this chaotic situation that was going on around her, so the abuse was inevitable," Dr. Mestrovic said. The defense also suggested that the harsh treatment of prisoners stemmed from the presence of military intelligence personnel, who wanted prisoners softened up. But under prosecution questioning, Private Graner admitted that no military intelligence personnel had been present on the night of Nov. 7, 2003, when prisoners were mistreated.
Lynndie England sentenced to three-year jail term Malayala Manorama
Pfc. England Gets 3 Years in Abuse Case ABC News
Pittsburgh Tribune-Review - CBC News - Xinhua - San Diego Union Tribune - all 1,654 related »

Foreign Fighters Now Seen as Main Threat Washington Post
The top US military intelligence officer in Iraq said Abu Musab Zarqawi and his foreign and Iraqi associates have essentially commandeered the insurgency, becoming the dominant opposition force and the greatest immediate threat to U.S. objectives in the country. "I think what you really have here is an insurgency that's been hijacked by a terrorist campaign," Army Maj. Gen. Richard Zahner said in an interview. "In part, by Zarqawi becoming the face of this thing, he has certainly gotten the funding, the media and, frankly, has allowed other folks to work along in his draft."
US is logging gains against Al Qaeda in Iraq Christian Science Monitor
Aide to Al-Qaeda's Zarqawi Killed in Iraq, US Says Bloomberg
FOX News - San Jose Mercury News - New York Times - Melbourne Herald Sun - all 795 related »

IRAQ WARS

- Iraq's Ethnic Cauldron Near Boiling Point
http://www.spacewar.com/news/iraq-05zzzm.html

Kirkuk, Iraq (UPI) Sep 27, 2005 - The al-Deem family has been living in a refuse-strewn field in northern Kirkuk for one and a half years, lured by a promise from Kurdish political leaders they would be given a house and land by the government.

Suicide bomber kills six Iraq army recruits Ireland Online
A suicide bomb attack at a recruitment centre for the Iraqi army today killed at least six people and wounded 20. The attacker, with explosives hidden beneath his clothes, set them off while standing among the job applicants in Tal Afar, 93 miles east of the Syrian border and 260 miles north-west of Baghdad, said police Brig. Saeed Ahmed Al-Jibori.
Suicide Bomb Attack Kills Six in Iraq Guardian Unlimited
Suicide bomber kills six Iraqi army recruits in Tal Afar Drogheda Independent
Reuters - Globe and Mail - all 36 related »

--------------------------------------------------------------------------------
Top US intelligence officer in Iraq Army Maj. Gen Richard Zahner tells Washington Post that Zarqawi and associates have “hijacked” the Iraqi insurgency

September 28, 2005, 6:27 PM (GMT+02:00)

He called it an “insurgency hijacked by a terrorist campaign” led by Zarqawi and his foreign and Iraqi associates. The US military command has since the spring seen Zarqawi’s al Qaeda in Iraq as having supplanted Iraqis loyal to ousted Saddam Hussein as the insurgency’s driving element. He stressed“…The Saddamists are essentially riding this, but the individuals inflicting huge amounts of violence are the still numerically inferior Zarqawi network. This shift has affected the focus of US military operations. Since spring, US commanders have focused on shutting off the flow of foreign Islamic extremists infiltrating from Syria from a number of countries. The number which approached 200 a month in June, dropped to 100 by the end of August. Suicide attacks fell about 50 percent between May and August. More than 315 have been killed since March and nearly 330 detained. But Zarqawi still appears cable escalate attacks when he wants and the average level of daily attacks across Iraq continues to creep up, now standing at 90.

“If you don’t take off the terrorist element,” Gen. Zahner said, “the political process can’t mature.”

Copyright 2000-2005 DEBKAfile. All Rights Reserved.

US Marine commander Lt. Col. Julian Alford said insurgents loyal to Abu Musab al-Zarqawi had taken over at least five key Western Iraqi towns on the Syrian border

September 28, 2005, 6:30 PM (GMT+02:00)

Alford, who commands the 1,000-strong Marine unit stationed outside the border town of al Qaim, said in an interview that al Qaeda is kicking local people out of al Qaim and four towns on the Euphrates - Dulaym al-Husayba, Karabila, Sada and Al Ubaydi. Marines do not venture into these towns which are completely controlled by insurgents who are enforcing strict Islamic law. Most are foreign fighters who crossed in from Syria. They are distributing flyers called death letters ordering people to leave or face death. No Iraqi soldiers or police operate inside these towns. Alford said he was expecting to mount a joint offensive in al Qaim after the arrival of some 3,000 Iraqi troops “soon,” to make the area safe for the Octo.15 constitution referendum.

21 killed in continuing Violence:

At least seven people were killed and 37 wounded when a female suicide bomber attacked a large crowd of people outside an army recruiting centre in the town of Tal Afar west of Mosul
http://www.alertnet.org/thenews/newsdesk/L28410055.htm


Four U.S. servicemembers killed in Iraq
http://www.freenewmexican.com/news/33046.html


Two Killed in Home of Al-Sadr's Bodyguard :

An attacker set off an explosion in the home of a bodyguard of radical Shiite cleric Moqtada al-Sadr on Wednedsay, killing two people and wounding five others, al-Sadr aides and a hospital official said.
http://www.guardian.co.uk/worldlatest/stor...5308690,00.html



Car bomb kills one Iraqi, wounds 15 in Baquba:

An Iraqi civilian was killed, and 15 others were wounded on Wednesday when a driven car bomb blew up nearby a security checkpoint in Baquba
http://tinyurl.com/95qv7


U.S. Soldier Killed by IED:

One 56th BCT Soldier died as a result of his wounds and one Soldier was wounded as a result of an improvised explosive device attack while conducting a combat logistics patrol at about 10:45 a.m. Sept. 28, near Safwan, Iraq.
http://www.centcom.mil/CENTCOMNews/Casualt...rt=20050929.txt

http://tinyurl.com/bz7mk



Soldier Killed in Ramadi; Iraqi Forces Detain Attacker:

A soldier assigned to 2nd Marine Division, 2nd Marine Expeditionary Force (Forward), was killed in action Sept. 27 by small-arms fire while conducting combat operations in Ramadi, Iraq, military officials reported today
http://www.defenselink.mil/news/Sep2005/20050928_2870.html


Reuters says U.S. troops obstruct reporting of Iraq:

The conduct of U.S. troops in Iraq, including increasing detention and accidental shootings of journalists, is preventing full coverage of the war reaching the American public, Reuters said on Wednesday.
http://www.informationclearinghouse.info/article10420.htm


Simon Jenkins: The handover they should be talking about in Brighton :

The best thing that Blair can do to unite Iraq is to withdraw British troops - and act before next month's referendum
http://www.informationclearinghouse.info/article10434.htm


Iraqis blast Lynndie England sentence:

Iraqis have expressed fury over the three-year jail sentence handed down to Lynndie England, the US soldier notorious for holding a naked inmate by a leash in Abu Ghraib prison.
http://tinyurl.com/9zj6q


Army Probes Porno for Corpse Photos:

The Army is investigating complaints that soldiers posted photographs of Iraqi corpses on an Internet site in exchange for access to pornographic images on the site.
http://www.informationclearinghouse.info/article10422.htm


U.S. Army ends probe on porn site photos of Iraq corpses:

The numerous graphic pictures posted on the Web site showed men, with their faces visible and wearing what looked like U.S. military uniforms, standing over a charred corpse, mutilated dead bodies and severed body parts.
http://tinyurl.com/7lya7



Missteps Hamper Iraqi Oil Recovery:

Hundreds of millions of dollars are lost as fields deteriorate. The failure to rebuild key components of Iraq's petroleum industry has impeded oil production and may have permanently damaged the largest of the country's vast oil fields, American and Iraqi experts say.
http://www.informationclearinghouse.info/article10421.htm


Depleted uranium tests for US troops returning from Iraq :

State legislators across the US are pushing ahead with laws that will provide their National Guard troops access to the most sophisticated tests.
http://www.informationclearinghouse.info/article10433.htm


12 Killed as suicide bomber' strikes in Kabul :

A suicide bomber has killed at least 12 people and injured a number of others outside an army base in Kabul, Afghan security officials say.
http://news.bbc.co.uk/2/hi/south_asia/4290744.stm

Gunmen kill 6 in Baghdad CNN International
Relatives cry on the coffin of one of seven men found slain Wednesday in Baghdad. Attacks by gunmen across Baghdad on Thursday left at least six people dead, including two Iraqi police officers, and 11 wounded, police said.
Suicide car bomb hits police checkpoint in northern Iraq People's Daily Online
Female Suicide Bomber Kills 7 Los Angeles Times
San Diego Union Tribune - Dispatch Online - Globe and Mail - Guardian Unlimited - all 687 related »

Bush Losing Opinion War On Iraq: Warning
http://www.spacewar.com/news/iraq-05zzzo.html

Washington (UPI) Sep 28, 2005 - The U.S. and British governments are in serious danger of losing their crucial battle to maintain public support for the continuing war in Iraq, Iain Duncan Smith, the former leader of the British Conservative Party, said in Washington this week.


Labor Activists Pressure Blair On Iraq
http://www.spacewar.com/news/iraq-05zzzn.html


Japan may pull troops out of Iraq in early 2006: report
http://www.spacewar.com/2005/050929023137.h1ioimun.html

Lynndie deserves an apology New York Daily News
Before being sentenced to three years in prison and a dishonorable discharge, Lynndie England apologized to just about everyone in sight.
Pictures of Lynndie tell depressing tale Concord Monitor
Token Punishment for Abu Ghraib's England Zaman Online
Sydney Morning Herald (subscription) - International Herald Tribune - Times Online - Guardian Unlimited - all 1,844 related »

--------------------
Gen.: Troop Withdrawal Hinges on Iraq Vote
--------------------

By LIZ SIDOTI
Associated Press Writer

September 29 2005, 9:30 AM PDT

WASHINGTON -- U.S. troops could begin coming home from Iraq next year, but it depends on conditions during and after the upcoming elections there, the top U.S. commander in Iraq told Congress on Thursday.

The complete article can be viewed at:
http://www.latimes.com/news/nationworld/wi...,0,771825.story

David Ignatius published this piece in the Post several days ago. He
says Gen. Abazaid and his staff are planning a gradual withdrawal,
while Bush will keep saying the opposite. Particularly bemusing is
their plan to "'remove the perception of occupation'."


The Generals Plan a Slow Exit

By David Ignatius
Monday, September 26, 2005; A23

DOHA, Qatar -- Posted on a bulletin board at Centcom headquarters here
is a 1918 admonition from T.E. Lawrence explaining what he learned in
training Arab soldiers: "It is better to let them do it themselves
imperfectly than to do it yourself perfectly. It is their country,
their way, and our time is short."

That quote sums up an important shift in U.S. military strategy on Iraq
that has been emerging over the past year. The commanders who are
running the war don't talk about transforming Iraq into an
American-style democracy or of imposing U.S. values. They understand
that Iraqis dislike American occupation, and for that reason they want
fewer American troops in Iraq, not more. Most of all, they don't want
the current struggle against Iraqi insurgents, who are nasty but
militarily insignificant, to undermine U.S. efforts against the larger
threat posed by al Qaeda terrorists, who would kill hundreds of
thousands of Americans if they could.

I had a rare opportunity to hear a detailed explanation of U.S.
military strategy this weekend when the Centcom chief, Gen. John
Abizaid, gathered his top generals here for what he called a
"commanders' huddle." They described a military approach that's
different, at least in tone, from what the public perceives. For the
commanders, Iraq isn't an endless tunnel. They are planning to reduce
U.S. troop levels over the next year to a force that will focus on
training and advising the Iraqi military. They don't want permanent
U.S. bases in Iraq. Indeed, they believe such a high-visibility
American presence will only make it harder to stabilize the country.

The commanders' thinking is conveyed by a set of "Principles for a Long
War" for combating the main enemy, al Qaeda and affiliated movements.
Among the precepts they discussed here: "use the indirect approach" by
working with Iraqi and other partner forces; "avoid the dependency
syndrome" by making the Iraqis take responsibility for their own
security and governance; and "remove the perception of occupation" by
reducing the size and visibility of American forces. The goal over the
next decade is a smaller, leaner, more flexible U.S. force in the
Middle East -- one that can help regional allies rather than trying to
fight an open-ended American war that would be a recruiting banner for
al Qaeda.

"The longer we carry the brunt of the counterinsurgency fight, the
longer we will carry the brunt," says Gen. George W. Casey Jr., who
commands U.S. troops in Iraq. "The sooner we can shift [to Iraqi
security forces] the better." Casey explains: "A smaller U.S.
footprint, that is allowed to decline gradually as Iraqi forces get
stronger, actually helps us."

Abizaid and Casey know there is tough fighting ahead in Iraq. Because
the insurgency isn't strong enough to attack U.S. forces head-on, it
has instead used suicide attacks and roadside bombs with deadly effect
-- especially against Iraqis. There were 412 suicide bombings in Iraq
from January through August, killing about 8,000 Iraqis, according to
U.S. statistics. The number of suicide attacks in August was eight
times higher than a year before.

To combat this insurgency, Casey has moved to joint U.S.-Iraqi
operations, such as the recent offensive in Tall Afar in northwestern
Iraq. As part of this Iraqification approach, Casey has embedded 10-man
U.S. adviser teams with every Iraqi brigade. The advisers can mentor
Iraqi troops but, perhaps more important, they can call in U.S. air
support -- so that the Iraqis aren't fighting just with AK-47s but with
F-16s and smart bombs.

President Bush and other administration officials continue to speak
about Iraqi democracy in glowing terms, but you don't hear similar
language from the military. After watching Iraqi political infighting
for more than two years, they're more cautious. "I think we'd be
foolish to try to build this into an American democracy," says one
general. "It's going to take a very different form and character." The
military commanders have concluded that because Iraqis have such strong
cultural antibodies to the American presence, the World War II model of
occupation isn't relevant. They've sharply lowered expectations for
what America can accomplish.

What Abizaid and his commanders seem to fear most is that eroding
political support for the war in the United States will undermine their
strategy for a gradual transition to Iraqi control. They think that
strategy is beginning to pay off, but it will require several more
years of hard work to stabilize the country. The generals devoutly want
the American people to stay the course -- but the course they describe
is more limited, and more realistic, than recent political debate might
suggest.

davidignatius@washpost.com
© 2005 The Washington Post Company

Army Investigating Web Postings of Grisly War Photos

By Josh White

U.S. Army officials are looking into allegations that soldiers have been trading gruesome digital pictures of war victims in Iraq and Afghanistan for access to an amateur pornography Web site, but officials said yesterday that there is insufficient evidence to pursue criminal charges.

The allegations surfaced last week, when the East Bay Express, a weekly newspaper in the San Francisco Bay area, published a story about graphic photographs that appeared on one section of the Web site. The photographs, which show the bodies of several people killed in shootings, explosions, or fires, include crude captions, some of which mock the dead.

Pentagon and Army officials yesterday issued strong statements condemning the taking and posting of such photographs, but said there is little evidence to authenticate them and few ways to pursue a criminal investigation. While some of the photos appear to show U.S. soldiers in uniform near mutilated bodies, it is unclear where or when the pictures were taken.

The Web site's creator said yesterday that about 30,000 members of the military are registered on his site, several thousand of whom have sent him photographs or comments from their official military Web addresses. Many of the photographs depict life in Iraq, while only a few are extremely graphic, he said.

"It's an uncensored view of the war, from their perspective," said Chris Wilson, 27, of Florida, who began accepting the photographs from soldiers overseas as payment for access to pornography on his Web site. "It's a place where the soldiers can express themselves without being filtered by the Bush administration," he added.

Those who submit photos of war casualties could be breaking military rules against "unbecoming" conduct and also could be in violation of government regulations regarding use of the Internet. Soldiers in Iraq and Afghanistan have access to the Internet, largely at Internet cafes, and many have digital cameras.

Paul Boyce, an Army spokesman, said investigators have been examining the photos for clues to their origin, adding that commanders in the field are emphasizing that taking and posting such photos is unacceptable.

"If accurate, these are gruesome depictions of deceased people in Iraq, and that violates the standards of our values, training and procedures that we ask military personnel to observe and obey," Boyce said. "It is very difficult to establish they are in fact being submitted by soldiers, where they were taken, who they were taken by, and the circumstances surrounding them."

The Council on American-Islamic Relations has decried the photographs and called for a Pentagon investigation. An official said the images could inflame insurgents and give other nations the mistaken impression that many Americans are gloating over casualties of the Iraq war.

"What we're most concerned about is the safety of our own soldiers," said Arsalan Iftikhar, CAIR's legal director. "It only tarnishes our image even further and serves as fodder for the insurgents and terrorists."

Wilson, who said he supports the soldiers and the war, said users must search out the corpse photos, which are not displayed prominently on the site.


Would you like to send this article to a friend? Go to
http://www.washingtonpost.com/ac2/wp-dyn/e...er=emailarticle

The 'Second' Man

The slain Abu Azzam may not have been Zarqawi’s top deputy after all. Will his death have any effect on the Iraq insurgency?

By Michael Isikoff and Mark Hosenball

U.S. intelligence officials and counterterrorism analysts are questioning whether a slain terrorist—described by President Bush today as the “second-most-wanted Al Qaeda leader in Iraq”—was as significant a figure as the Bush administration is claiming.
http://www.informationclearinghouse.info/article10450.htm


At least 85 killed in triple Iraqi car bombing:

Two pick-up trucks blew up in a central shopping street, with a third pick-up exploding in another neighbourhood 10 minutes later, local police Lieutenant-Colonel Adel Abdallah said.
http://www.news.com.au/story/0,10117,16768975-401,00.html


Eight Killed In Continuing Violence

Iraqi Civilians Killed; : Five Iraqi civilians were killed and 30 were wounded in a suicide-bomber attack in Tal Afar, Iraq, Wedensday, military officials reported.
http://www.alertnet.org/thenews/newsdesk/ANW942500.htm


Iraqi Civilians Killed; :

Five Iraqi civilians were killed and 30 were wounded in a suicide-bomber attack in Tal Afar, Iraq, Wedensday, military officials reported.
http://tinyurl.com/7stxe


Five U.S. Soldiers Killed in Ramadi :

A roadside bomb killed five American soldiers during combat in the western town of Ramadi, a hotbed of insurgent activity, the U.S military said Thursday.
http://tinyurl.com/8uhe9


U.S. Soldier and Airman killed in IED attack
http://www.mnf-iraq.com/Releases/Sep/050928h.htm


Top U.S. General Says Number of Capable Iraqi Battalions Drops to One:

The number of Iraqi battalions capable of combat without U.S. support has dropped from three to one, the top American commander in Iraq told Congress Thursday, prompting Republicans to question whether U.S. troops will be able to withdraw next year.
http://ap.tbo.com/ap/breaking/MGB60MB97EE.html


U.S. general casts doubt on 2006 troop cut in Iraq:

The top U.S. general in Iraq on Wednesday cast doubt on his previous forecasts of a substantial cut in American forces in 2006, saying Iraq was in a period of heightened uncertainty that made it "too soon to tell" if troops can be brought home.
http://tinyurl.com/c7v7l


Sunnis say no chance for Iraq constitution deal:

"The constitution issue is dead until the referendum," said Sunni negotiator Hussein al-Falluji on Thursday. "We will vote 'No' and we will not accept the American policy of aggression to get what they want. There is no way we will support it."
http://www.alertnet.org/thenews/newsdesk/BAK947253.htm


Arianna Huffington : As Iraq Burns; Dems Look on the Bright Side
http://www.informationclearinghouse.info/article10439.htm


Prisoner abuse in Iraq :

The court-martial conviction Monday of the reservist Lynndie England for her role in the abuse of Iraqi prisoners at Abu Ghraib should fool no one that the Pentagon is taking seriously the mistreatment of Iraqis, especially after the release last Friday of a report on torture by members of the 82rd Airborne Division stationed near Falluja.
http://tinyurl.com/abv3n


Judge Orders Release of Abu Ghraib Photos :

Saying the United States "does not surrender to blackmail," a judge ruled Thursday that pictures of detainee abuse at Iraq's Abu Ghraib prison must be released over government claims that they could damage America's image.
http://www.informationclearinghouse.info/article10454.htm

US Concern Over Iraqi Military Readiness Grows Los Angeles Times
A series of coordinated bombings killed at least 70 people in the Iraqi city of Balad on Thursday as US military leaders in Washington downgraded their estimate of the number of Iraqi troops at the highest state of readiness. Commanders who visited Capitol Hill told lawmakers that U.S. troop reductions were needed in part to break an Iraqi "dependency" on American forces. But, underscoring the difficulty of disengaging, Army Gen. George W. Casey, the top U.S. commander in Iraq, said the number of Iraqi units at the highest level of readiness had fallen from three battalions in June to one. U.S. officials also reported that five American soldiers had been killed by a roadside bomb the previous day, the deadliest single attack on U.S. forces in nearly two months. The five were attached to the 2nd Marine Division, 2nd Marine Expeditionary Force. At least 13 members of the U.S. military have been killed in Iraq since Monday. The attacks in Balad began just after dusk as shoppers wandered around a central marketplace. Two car bombs exploded minutes apart, transforming the tranquil square and surrounding areas into a scene of bloodshed and horror. A third blast elsewhere in the city followed a short time later. A pickup truck exploded near a bank, trapping families inside their burning cars. Firemen tried unsuccessfully to extinguish the flames engulfing a minibus packed with children. The firefighters eventually ran out of water as they battled several blazes, said Nadheer Sami Abdul Waheed, who was standing outside his appliance store when the bomb went off across the street. "I saw children burning with my own eyes," he said in a telephone interview. Police tried to evacuate the area, bringing people to a nearby square. The second bomb went off in the crowd of evacuees, witnesses said. The third bomb exploded near a Shiite shrine at a market popular with merchants and laborers. Dozens of children were among the more than 100 people injured, Iraqi authorities and hospital officials said. Balad Police Chief Col. Kadim Abdul Razzaq and four of his men were among those hurt. Several of the wounded were evacuated to a nearby American military base. Iraqis waited in line outside a local hospital during the evening to donate blood. Balad, about 50 miles north of Baghdad, is predominantly Shiite Muslim but is surrounded by Sunni villages. The Iraqi insurgency is dominated by Sunnis. Despite a recent escalation in attacks against the majority Shiites, influential clerics have urged restraint and have so far managed to prevent large-scale revenge killings. But Thursday's bombings further strained relations between the sects. "We here, the Balad people, are whispering among ourselves," said Waheed, talking about the Shiite response. "We have noticed that the Sunnis haven't entered the city in the last five days. Why? This is my question." In Baghdad, police said three bakers and a fishmonger, all Shiites, were killed in the Dora neighborhood. And the entire lay leadership of the Anglican Church in Baghdad was feared dead after disappearing on the road between the western cities of Ramadi and Fallouja, according to the BBC. Gunmen also fired on a minibus near the Al Shaab sports stadium in Baghdad, killing two government workers and wounding seven, authorities said. Iraqi security forces also were targeted, and six police officers were killed in four shooting incidents. At least 1,971 Iraqi soldiers and police have been killed this year, according to the Iraq Coalition Casualty Count, a website that collects data from various sources, including the media and the U.S. military. Away from the violence, Casey, Defense Secretary Donald H. Rumsfeld and Army Gen. John P. Abizaid, head of the U.S. Central Command, appeared before members of the House and Senate armed services committees in Washington, telling lawmakers that Iraqi armed forces were making progress in many areas. "Over the past 18 months, we have built enough Iraqi capacity where we can begin talking seriously about transitioning this counterinsurgency mission to them," Casey told the Senate committee. But the commanders acknowledged under questioning that the number of Iraqi battalions considered to be at the highest level of readiness had fallen. Under a U.S. grading system, Iraqi battalions are designated Level 1 when they are capable of planning and executing counterinsurgency missions independent of U.S. troops. Casey explained the decline only by saying that "things change in the battalions." Senators did not press Casey for an explanation of why the number of units at the highest level of readiness had dropped from three to one. But Sen. Susan Collins (R-Maine) said Casey's latest assessment was discouraging. "That contributes to a loss of public confidence in how the war is going and whether the strategy is the appropriate one, and it's being executed properly, whether or not we're making progress," Collins said. "It doesn't feel like progress when we hear today that we have only one Iraqi battalion that is fully capable." Casey said that no ground had been lost in the Iraqi training and that it would be wrong to gauge the readiness of Iraqi troops merely by counting the number of Level 1 battalions. Units assessed at Level 2 and Level 3, he said, were participating in joint missions with U.S. troops. "We don't need to have that whole force at Level 1, or even that whole force at Level 2, before we can begin considering coalition reductions," Casey said. Iraqi troops actually could benefit from a reduction in U.S. and coalition forces, he said. The continued U.S. troop presence "contributes to the dependency of Iraqi security forces on the coalition," he said. "It extends the amount of time that it will take for Iraqi security forces to become self-reliant, and it exposes more coalition forces to attacks at a time when Iraqi security forces are increasingly available and increasingly capable." Casey also said the U.S. presence in Iraq was fueling the insurgency because of the perception of an American occupation, making a troop reduction critical to the United States' mission in Iraq. Nonetheless, Republican as well as Democratic senators expressed skepticism over the plans for troop withdrawals, which Casey said could take place next year. "We're planning on troop withdrawals without any criteria being met that I can see," said Sen. John McCain (R-Ariz.). "You're taking a very big gamble here." Casey, who predicted in July that a reduction in the number of U.S. troops could begin in the spring, told lawmakers that the next few months would be critical to the future of the U.S. presence in Iraq. He said that insurgencies last an average of nine years and that U.S. troops would withdraw from Iraq long before the insurgency was defeated. The generals' last congressional visit was in June, when U.S. public opinion on the war had begun to sour. As in June, their appearance Thursday marked the beginning of a weeklong effort by the Bush administration to try to shore up declining public support for the war. Over the next several days, Vice President Dick Cheney and Secretary of State Condoleezza Rice will make speeches, and Bush will give what the White House says will be a significant address on the subject Thursday. Roug reported from Baghdad and Mazzetti from Washington. Times staff writer Emma Vaughn in Washington contributed to this report.
Iraqi bombers kill 60 while Senate told of troop shortfalls Mail & Guardian Online
Decline in Iraqi Troops' Readiness Cited Washington Post
San Francisco Chronicle - New York Times - Providence Journal (subscription) - Guardian Unlimited - all 216 related »

http://www.nytimes.com/2005/09/30/politics...i=5070&emc=eta1


Officials Fear Chaos if Iraqis Vote Down the Constitution

By JOEL BRINKLEY and THOM SHANKER
Published: September 30, 2005
WASHINGTON, Sept. 29 - Senior American officials say they are confident that Iraq's draft constitution will be approved in the referendum to be held Oct. 15, even though Sunni Arabs in Iraq are mobilizing in large numbers to defeat it.

In testimony before Congress on Thursday, the senior American military commander in Iraq, Gen. George W. Casey Jr. of the Army, said the most recent analysis of intelligence from across the country supported the Bush administration's optimistic predictions that the referendum would pass.

But if the constitution is defeated, several officials said they feared that Iraq would descend into anarchy.

Approval "is critically important," a senior administration official said, "to maintain political momentum. That is the critical thing for holding this whole thing together."

Private organizations in Iraq, many working with government financing, say their own analyses, based on discussions with hundreds of Iraqis, polling data and other information, have also led many of them to believe that the constitution would be approved.

Their calculations are complicated, because by law the constitution will fail if it is rejected by two-thirds of the voters in any three of Iraq's 18 provinces, even if a majority of voters nationwide approve it.

In regions dominated by Sunni Arabs, opinion polls have shown sentiment running just about two to one against it. It is unclear, in those provinces, how get-out-the-vote campaigns by the opposing factions may tilt the balance, or how much the turnout on either side may be suppressed by the continuing violence.

But no matter how the vote goes, several officials said in interviews, the violence in Iraq is likely to increase significantly.

That prediction stands in contrast to the upbeat previous assessments from President Bush and others in his administration before other major turning points in Iraq, like the transition to Iraqi sovereignty in 2004 or the national elections early this year. The administration argued that insurgents would be demoralized by the success of democracy and that violence would decline.

Senator Carl Levin, Democrat of Michigan, asked General Casey in a pointed exchange during the hearing on Thursday, "If there's a strong majority of Sunnis, which is very possible, that vote against that constitution, could that not possibly lead to a worsening political situation rather than a better one?"

"I think that's entirely possible," the general replied. "I mean, as we've looked at this, we've looked for the constitution to be a national compact, and the perception now is that it's not, particularly among the Sunnis."

Officials say that if the constitution is defeated, insurgents will most likely believe that they have won a significant victory and be encouraged to fight on. Conversely, it is said, the insurgency will grow stronger if the voters approve the constitution, because that will anger Sunnis who opposed it and empower Sunni insurgents who can claim that their views were ignored.

"A vote for the constitution doesn't mean we're headed for peace and prosperity," Gen. John P. Abizaid, head of the Central Command, said in an interview this month. "Iraq is going to be a pretty difficult security environment for a while."

A senior official said the Bush administration believed that the insurgency was likely to continue for years and would start to decline only "when Iraq's political and economic system begins to consolidate." The administration officials agreed to talk only if their names were not used, under administration policy for their departments.

Sunni Arabs, who held power when Saddam Hussein ruled Iraq, boycotted the election in January. But now, American officials and officers of private organizations working in Iraq say Sunnis are registering to vote in record numbers that exceed 80 percent in many areas.

"There's a massive, massive effort, in mosques and other places, to get them to register," the Iraq country director for the National Democratic Institute, said in a telephone interview on Wednesday. He asked that his name not be used, because of security concerns. The institute is an organization financed by the United States government that works to promote democracy abroad.

Many Sunni Arabs are upset that the draft constitution grants Kurds and Shiite Arabs significant new authority to set up semi-independent areas but offers little specifically for them.

Still, the country director and others say they do not believe that the Sunni vote is likely to be monolithic. Many Sunni moderates, they say, are likely to vote in favor of the constitution and hope to influence how it is put into effect. The constitution seems likely to be approved by substantial majorities in the heavily Kurdish north and the predominantly Shiite south. In ethnically mixed Baghdad, the situation is more fluid.

Senior Pentagon and military officials who have been closely monitoring reports from Iraq predict that the referendum will fail by the two-thirds majority in the Sunni-dominated - and violence-plagued - Anbar Province in western Iraq. But intelligence reports indicate that only one other province at most will vote no by two-thirds.

"Nobody will be surprised to lose Anbar, and maybe one other province," one Pentagon official said. "We're not going to lose three."

American political and military officials say a large Sunni vote will be a sign that democracy is taking hold in Iraq. Still, the United States is working hard to be sure that the Sunni opponents will not prevail. Among many steps, State Department officials said, Zalmay Khalilzad, the United States ambassador to Iraq, is meeting with Sunni Arab leaders almost every day, trying to persuade them to vote yes.

Eric Schmitt contributed reporting for this article.

http://www.theaustralian.news.com.au/commo...55E2703,00.html

White House talks up Iraq war
Correspondents in Washington
September 30, 2005
GEORGE W. Bush, facing a dramatic surge of chaotic violence in Iraq, yesterday sought to buttress failing domestic support for the conflict that has killed almost 2000 Americans.

The US President warned there would be a rise in terrorist attacks in Iraq before next month's vote on a new constitution, but he insisted he had the situation in hand.

"Our troops are ready," he said, as the US troop commitment looked set to exceed 150,000 in coming months.

"See, the Iraqis want to be free. They proved that last January, when over 8million citizens, in the face of violence and threats, voted.

"The terrorists are going to fail this time, but we can expect they'll do everything in their power to try to stop the march of freedom."

Mr Bush's remarks in the Rose Garden of the White House came two days after Iraqi and US forces announced they had killed Abdullah Abu Azzam, claimed by Washington to be al-Qa'ida's No2 leader in Iraq.

Mr Bush spoke after a meeting with General George Casey, the top commander in Iraq, and General John Abizaid, the chief of US central command. The President said he had dispatched the two generals to Capitol Hill to brief congressmen on the war on terrorism and operations in Iraq.

"The support of Congress for our troops and our mission is important and Americans need to know about the gains we have made in recent weeks and months. They need to know the way we're adapting our tactics, and the way we're changing our strategies to meet the needs on the ground," Mr Bush said.

Mr Bush cited as evidence the killing of Abu Azzam, the increasing numbers of Iraqi troops capable of guarding cities, and the blocking of a main route for foreign terrorists coming into Iraq from Syria.

But the President's remarks came during a week in which the insurgency reached new heights of violence, and the respected International Crisis Group warned Iraq was heading for civil war and partition.

Gunmen yesterday machine-gunned workers at a Shi'ite bakery and fired at a minibus carrying football stadium employees in Baghdad, killing a total of four people and wounding eight, the Interior Ministry said.

CNN also reported that the bodies of 31 people had been found shot, execution-style, in recent days. Most were shot once in the head with their hands tied, and many may have been tortured, police said.

In Samarra, several hundred residents were fleeing their homes in fear that US and Iraqi forces would launch an offensive against insurgents there, according to the UN Office for the

Co-ordination of Humanitarian Affairs.

On Wednesday, what was understood to be the first female suicide bomber of the conflict blew herself up outside an Iraqi army recruiting centre, killing at least six people and wounding 30. Al-Qa'ida claimed responsibility for the blast.

The US President is facing declining public support for the war, which has claimed the lives of at least 1925 US lives.

An anti-war demonstration in Washington on the weekend drew an estimated 100,000 to the capital and polls show Mr Bush's approval rating is at the lowest point of his presidency. National polls have shown a majority of Americans now believe the war was a mistake. In an AP-Ipsos poll this month, only 37per cent approved of or leaned towards approval of how Mr Bush has handled the situation in Iraq. Strong disapproval outweighed strong approval by two to one, 46per cent to 22 per cent.

And the administration's standing took a further battering yesterday when it emerged that, almost a year after Congress demanded action, the Pentagon had still not reimbursed soldiers for body armour they bought to better protect themselves while serving in Iraq.

Insurgent attacks have escalated ahead of an October 15 referendum on a new constitution that has raised fears of a bloody sectarian split between Iraq's Shi'ite Muslim majority and the disaffected Sunni minority.

There are about 147,000 US troops in Iraq. Although US officials say they cannot forecast how many they will have in Iraq in coming months, extensions announced on Friday appeared to indicate that the number would exceed 150,000.

AP, AFP

http://www.angus-reid.com/polls/index.cfm/...tem/itemID/9193

Americans Keep Gloomy Views on Iraq War



(Angus Reid Global Scan) – Few adults in the United States feel positively about the way the coalition effort is progressing, according to a poll by Rasmussen Reports. Only 27 per cent of respondents believe things in Iraq are going well.

The coalition effort against Saddam Hussein’s regime was launched in March 2003. At least 1,936 American soldiers have died during the military operation, and more than 14,300 troops have been injured.

Iraqis are set to ratify their new constitution in a nationwide referendum scheduled for Oct. 15. Yesterday, several car bombs exploded in Balad, killing at least 62 people and wounding 70 others.

Also yesterday, senior U.S. ground commander George Casey testified before the Senate Armed Services Committee, saying, "I do think that the possibility for condition-based reduction of coalition forces still exists in 2006. (...) Reducing the visibility and ultimately the presence of coalition forces as we transition to Iraqi security self-reliance remains a key element of our counter-insurgency strategy."

Casey also said the military expects "to have 60,000 to 70,000 more Iraqi security forces available for referendum security than we had in the January elections." The number of Iraqi security forces is expected to reach 100,000 before the next legislative ballot in Iraq, scheduled for December.

Polling Data

How do you rate the way that things are going in Iraq these days?


Excellent
8%

Good
19%

Fair
23%

Poor
48%



Source: Rasmussen Reports
Methodology: Telephone interviews to 1,000 American adults, conducted on Sept. 26 and Sept. 27, 2005. Margin of error is 3 per cent.

Insurgents Kill Nine in Baghdad Market Guardian Unlimited
Sunni-led insurgents killed at least five people in a crowded vegetable market on Friday, the Muslim day of worship, police said. New information also emerged about coordinated suicide and mortar attacks the day before in another mostly Shiite city that left nearly 100 people dead. Elsewhere, in the southern city of Basra, an Iraqi police convoy was ambushed late Thursday, killing four policemen and wounding one, said police Capt. Mushtaq Khazim.
Car bomb kills 12 in Iraq as referendum vote nears Reuters.uk
Market bomb in Iraq kills 11 Times Online
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Endgame in Iraq Bangkok Post
Even a brief visit to the southern Iraqi port of Umm Qasr leaves me convinced that we are entering the endgame here. The coming Iraqi votes, in October over the new constitution and in December over a new parliament, are going to tell America whether it is worth staying here or not for much longer. Despite all the shameful blunders of Donald Rumsfeld, Iraq, at the end of the day, was always going to be what the Iraqis decided to make of it. And the Iraqi majority _ the Shi'ites and Kurds who make up roughly 80% of this country _ have spoken. They want an Iraq that will be decentralised and will allow each of their communities to run its own affairs and culture _ without fear of ever again being dominated and brutalised by an oil-backed Sunni minority regime in Baghdad. Equally important, both the Kurds and the Shi'ites have made it clear that they have no interest in telling the Sunnis how to live, and will cut them a slice of Iraq's oil revenue and maintain Iraq's basic Arab identity. So now we know what kind of majority the Kurds and Shi'ites want to be, the question is what kind of minority the Iraqi Sunnis want to be. Do they want to be the Palestinians and spend the next 100 years trying to mobilise the Arab-Muslim world to reverse history and restore their ``right'' to rule Iraq as a minority _ a move that would destroy them and Iraq. Or do they want to embrace the future? I know the Sunnis are terrified by Iran's influence in this southern region, but, as the Brits who run the Basra area will tell you, the Iraqi Arab Shi'ites here are obsessed with not being dominated by Iran. That attitude would only be enhanced if Iraqi Sunnis, rather than allowing or abetting the murders of Shi'ites, would instead embrace the new constitution and let the US cut the Sunnis an even fairer slice of the pie. ``We have a lot of overlapping interests with the Sunnis of Iraq,'' a senior US official in Baghdad said. Indeed, in the latter stages of the constitutional negotiations in Iraq, the US ambassador in Baghdad, Zalmay Khalilzad, was basically acting as the Sunnis' lawyer in dealings with the Kurds and Shi'ites. The problem was that the Sunnis never knew when to say yes, ``that's enough,'' and the US got fed up with their demanding much more than their due. Do the Iraqi Sunnis understand their own interests, and does the Sunni world have any moral centre? Up to now the Sunni Arab world has stood mute while the Sunni Ba'athists and jihadists in Iraq have engaged in what can only be called ``ethnic cleansing'': murdering Shi'ite civilians in large numbers because they are Shi'ites in hopes of restoring a Sunni-dominated order in Iraq that is un-restorable. A fatwa has just been issued against a female Indian tennis player who is Muslim, condemning her for her short skirts, but no fatwa has been issued by Sunni clerics condemning al-Zarqawi's butchering of children and teachers. Some courageous Sunnis have begun to speak out. ``One of the most bizarre phenomena of recent times has been the refusal of Arab governments to condemn terrorist acts in Iraq or to commiserate with the victims,'' Abdul Rahman al-Rashed wrote in the Saudi daily Asharq Al Awsat. ``Take the most recent atrocities in which more than 200 Iraqis lost their lives in two days of carnage: No Arab government raised its voice in condemnation, although most of them shrilly objected when the new Iraqi Constitution failed to mention that the country was part of the Arab nation. The official Arab position vis-a-vis Iraq has always been spineless.'' So, folks, we are faltering in Iraq today in part because of the Bush team's incompetence, but also because of the moral vacuum in the Sunni Arab world, where the worst are engaged in murderous ethnic cleansing and the rest are too afraid, too weak, too lost or too anti-Shi'ite to do anything about it. Maybe the cynical Europeans were right. Maybe this neighbourhood is just beyond transformation. That will become clear in the next few months as we see just what kind of minority the Sunnis in Iraq intend to be. If they come around, a decent outcome in Iraq is still possible, and we should stay to help build it. If they won't, then we are wasting our time. We should arm the Shi'ites and Kurds and leave the Sunnis of Iraq to reap the wind. We must not throw more good American lives after good American lives for people who hate others more than they love their own children.
Car bomb kills five in Iraqi market Scotsman
String of Car Bombs Kills 60 in Iraq ABC News
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http://www.atimes.com/atimes/Middle_East/GJ01Ak04.html

Britain, Iran playing with Iraqi Shi'ite fire
By Mahan Abedin

Recent deadly attacks against British forces in southern Iraq and the seizure of two undercover British Special Air Service (SAS) agents in Basra, followed quickly by their dramatic rescue, have highlighted the superficiality of security and stability in the Iraqi south. They have also led to intense speculation as to the causes of the recent troubles in a region hitherto trumpeted as comparatively safe and secure.

The British media, following subtle prompts by the British security establishment, has tended to apportion some of the blame for the recent upsurge in violence - particularly the increasingly sophisticated nature of roadside bombings - on Iran. This is, at best, misleading. The events in southern Iraq are essentially driven by internal Iraqi dynamics, and British high-handedness in



dealing with Iraqi Shi'ites is not helping matters.

The British in Iraq
The British military has been careful to cultivate a benign image around its substantial presence in the southern regions of Iraq. Retired military officers, who act as unofficial public relations agents of the United Kingdom military, regularly appear in the media and often contrast the behavior of British forces to the more trigger-happy Americans, and swiftly conclude that the British - on account of their experience in Northern Ireland and elsewhere - are simply better at this type of thing than their American cousins.

This is, at best, a half-truth. While there is no denying the professionalism and historical experience of the British military, they have been guilty of serious crimes and abuses in Iraq. In any case, if the British forces were stationed in the central, western and central-northern regions of Iraq, there could be little doubt that they would be suffering casualty rates equal to or exceeding those currently sustained by the US military.

The British policy of granting substantial autonomy and freedom of action to Shi'ite political parties and their militias has been less driven by benevolence and careful planning than by a lack of troops on the ground.

The British military presence in southern Iraq - although substantial - is still nowhere near enough to ensure security over the vast regions where they operate. Given this limited capability, it made sense to delegate various security tasks to the militias, mainly the Badr Organization (previously Badr Brigade) of the Supreme Council of the Islamic Revolution in Iraq (SCIRI) and the various militias belonging to Muqtada al-Sadr's movement and its offshoots.

Given the numerical strength of these militias and the political and socio-economic influence wielded by their mother organizations, it was no great surprise that they managed to heavily penetrate newly established police and security structures in southern Iraq. Recent attempts by the British to reverse this process have led to tension, which may be a factor behind the targeting of their forces.

A much more worrying factor for the Iraqi Shi'ite organizations is intense British intelligence activities all over Iraq, but particularly in the south. The fear is that the British are planning a long-term intelligence presence in Iraq, which would long outlast their military presence in the country.

These fears are not without basis, as every civilian and military agency of the British secret state has a presence in Iraq. These include the Secret Intelligence Service (better known as MI6), GCHQ (the electronic surveillance arm of the British intelligence), the Army Intelligence Corps and elements of the revamped Force Research Unit (an ultra-secret branch of British military intelligence, which gained notoriety for its abuses in Northern Ireland).

Even the British domestic security service (MI5) and the Metropolitan police Special Branch maintain a presence in Iraq. Given the breadth and depth of this intelligence presence, it is not altogether surprising that the Iraqi Shi'ites are fast losing confidence in the British. This is compounded by their historical experience with the British, who favored the Arab Sunnis over the Shi'ites in the 1920s, thus setting in train the complex dynamics that culminated in the rise of Arab nationalists and Saddam Hussein. Interestingly, the Shi'ites still maintain confidence in the Americans, believing that the Americans are committed to irreversibly altering the balance of power in Iraq and the wider region in favor of the Shi'ites.

Yet another sticking point has been the British determination to thwart Iranian influence in southern Iraq. While the Americans have been busy fighting the Arab Sunni insurgents who are ripping Iraq apart, the British have dedicated significant resources to countering Iranian intelligence operations and other activities in the Shi'ite south.

One particular method that has been causing much ill-feeling has been direct approaches by the British (usually involving two UK intelligence officers surrounded by ordinary soldiers) to people who maintain contact with Iranian agents and those who regularly travel to Iran.

The Iraqis in question are subjected to a long diatribe about the "black heart" of Iranian intelligence and strongly advised to cease their contact with the Iranians. While ordinary Iraqis are baffled by this type of approach (and often remind the British that it is they who occupy Iraq, not the Iranians), the Shi'ite political organizations are extremely offended. After all, it was Iran that gave them shelter and support during the dark years of the Saddam regime, while the British had given free reign to the former Iraqi intelligence services to terrorize Iraqi dissidents in the UK in the 1980s.

British meddling in Iran?
From an Iranian perspective, the British military presence in southern Iraq is psychologically unsettling. Aside from bitter historical experience, the Iranians fear that the British (who are the effective rulers of southern Iraq) may mimic the behavior of the former Iraqi regime and conduct extensive intelligence and sabotage operations in Iran's oil-rich Khuzestan province. It is not altogether surprising therefore that some circles in the Iranian government and semi-official hardline pressure groups blamed the British for the riots and bombings that rocked Khuzestan this late spring.

Many of these accusations against the British can be reduced to irrational Iranian fears of British omnipotence and hostile intentions toward Iran. Certainly the Iranians have not produced any hard evidence pointing to British involvement, and moreover it is difficult to see why the British would want to destabilize Khuzestan, when that instability could have a negative impact on conditions in the extreme Iraqi south.

At the same time, there is little doubt that the British have, for the first time since the 1979 Islamic revolution in Iran, established an intelligence foothold in that country. This would not have been possible without the British military presence in Iraq. While much of the British intelligence activity in Khuzestan is directed against Iranian intelligence and influence operations in Iraq, the same intelligence resources can be directed against Iranian national security inside Iran.

Britain and the Iraqi Shi'ites
In an interview with the Baztab news website (which is managed by former officers in the political-ideological department of the Islamic Revolutionary Guards Corps, and widely regarded as the best-quality Persian language news site) a "senior" Iraqi Shi'ite political figure claimed that in the event of Britain not correcting its hostile stance toward Iraqi Shi'ites, the "200-year" rage of Iraqi Shi'ites against British imperialism would explode, sending "hundreds" of British soldiers and officers to their deaths.

Alluding to the capture of the two undercover SAS men, the "senior" Iraqi figure claimed the Shi'ites had thwarted an extensive British conspiracy around Basra. Moreover, the Iraqi figure claimed that the Shi'ites did not care for British designs in Iraq and warned that the decision of the Shi'ites not to attack the occupiers over the past 30 months could be easily reversed. Furthermore, cleverly alluding to the unpopularity of the Iraq war in Britain, the Iraqi Shi'ite figure claimed that major assaults against the British forces would topple Prime Minister Tony Blair.

While much of this can be dismissed as rhetoric and puffery, statements such as this should nonetheless force people to question their assumptions about the Iraqi Shi'ites. It is interesting to note that the Arab Sunni insurgents, al-Qaeda, the Arab regimes in the Middle East and the Anglo-American coalition have (at different times and to varying degrees) all painted the Iraqi Shi'ites as a poor and helpless people with an intense historical inferiority complex.

The Arab regimes (particularly those of Saudi Arabia and Jordan) seem to be confident that the historical oppression of the Iraqi Shi'ites has been so deeply internalized in their collective psyche that they are simply incapable of translating their numerical majority into real political and socio-economic power.

A brief glance at recent history would thoroughly demolish such myths. Iraqi Shi'ites were at the forefront of the struggle against Saddam and it was the Shi'ite al-Da'awa Party that introduced multiple suicide bombings to the world. In particular it was a rogue Da'awa cell that attacked the Iraqi Embassy in Beirut in December 1981, killing 27 people, thus claiming the first major suicide bombing of the 20th century in the name of Iraq's oppressed Shi'ite majority. If this type of wrath were to be unleashed against the British and American forces inside Iraq, there is little doubt that Washington's ever-shrinking ambitions for Iraq and its own interests in the region would be seriously imperiled, if not sunk altogether.

The Iraqi Shi'ites certainly have the potential to create as much if not more instability than the Arab Sunni guerrillas, and given this potentiality the British have a responsibility to prevent the tense situation in southern Iraq from deteriorating even further. High-handedness and a thinly veiled belief in their moral superiority was a major factor in the collapse of the British Empire. The real concern is that in occupied Iraq, these tactics and attitudes will not only deepen instability, but might even reverse some of the gains achieved by the downfall of Saddam.

More broadly, the UK and Iran can work together to prevent serious instability in the Shi'ite south. The secret intelligence war between the two sides in Iraq is currently manageable. Whether it remains that way depends, to a large extent, on how Britain manages its relations with Iran over a number of issues, in particular the brewing crisis over Iran's nuclear program. Should the UK adopt an increasingly hawkish stance over this issue, Iran will have little incentive to secure the Anglo-American enterprise in Iraq.

Mahan Abedin is the editor of Terrorism Monitor, which is published by the Jamestown Foundation, a non-profit organization specializing in research and analysis on conflict and instability in Eurasia.

(Copyright 2005 Asia Times Online Ltd. All rights reserved. Please contact us for information on sales, syndication and republishing .)

http://www.atimes.com/atimes/Middle_East/GJ01Ak03.html

THE ROVING EYE
Who's in charge, Qom or Najaf?
By Pepe Escobar

TEHRAN - Syria, Lebanon and Iraq are crucial protagonists in the specter of a Shi'ite crescent, according to the Saudi royal family, King Abdullah of Jordan and conservative American think tanks. Once again, the facts on the ground are much more complex than a simplistic formula.

Syria, although 86% Muslim, is a multiethnic and multiconfessional country. The Sunni majority cohabits with 13% of Alawites (who are Shi'ites), 3% of Druze and 1% of Ismailis. The Alawites derive from a schism in the 9th century around the 11th imam, al-Askari, who they consider the last legitimate descendant of the Prophet Mohammed. Sunnis as well as Western scholars consider them Shi'ites. But many Islamic scholars are not so sure.

Since the early 20th century, Syrian nationalists have never accepted the creation of Lebanon, Jordan and much less



Palestine - which became Israel. Alawites - a persecuted minority for centuries - have reached their current enviable position in Syria thanks to the Ba'ath Party ideology, which has always been secular and nationalist.

Ba'ath ideology exalted Arabism. So Alawites joined en masse both the Ba'ath Party and the army. The result was inevitable: at the end of the 1960s they took over power in Syria. The incarnation of this process was strongman Hafez Assad. Sunnis in Syria always felt they had been "robbed" of power. But Assad never feared the Sunnis as much as he feared Islamic fundamentalism.

Damascus is close to Tehran. In Lebanon - to counteract Christian Maronite power - Syria has always supported the Shi'ites. Does that mean that Alawite-controlled Syria is part of the Shi'ite crescent? Not necessarily. Lebanese Shi'ism is practically the same as in Iran. But for the Iranian ayatollahs in Qom, Alawites themselves are heretics. In the 1980s, in Damascus, there was plenty of official talk about a Shi'ite "international" from the Mediterranean to Pakistan. But Assad - coming from a sect considered heretic - could never be the head of such an entity.

The point now with Hafez's son Bashar is whether he will be able to keep the Alawites in power by remodeling the state's upper echelons. Not if Washington neo-conservatives can have a word on the matter. Regime change in Syria may remain a priority in Washington. But nobody knows how Syrian unity would be affected - the country could become another factionalized Lebanon, or another factionalized Iraq - or what the consequences would be over the stability of Lebanon and the Israeli-Palestinian conflict.

Shi'ites in Lebanon are predominant in two non-contiguous regions, the south and the northeast near the Syrian border. Lebanese Shi'ites finally achieved political representation as they have become the predominant Lebanese community (about 60%). They woke up from decades of political and social torpor, their political consciousness determined by the fact that they were Shi'ites. This extraordinary, painful process has served as an example for Shi'ites in Iraq, and may serve as an example for Shi'ites in the Persian Gulf.

Lebanese Shi'ites essentially want to be able to co-direct the country along with the Christian Maronites - the financial power. This could only happen in a Lebanon free from the current confessional, institutional model, something that is unlikely in the short term. The only possible solution for Lebanon would be a broad agreement between the Maronites (the financial power), the Shi'ites (the demographic power) and the Sunnis (the link with Saudi financial power, and until recently with Syria as well). With former premier Rafik Hariri's son as the new prime minister - which means the Saudi connection is intact - that seems unlikely to happen. The point is that for Lebanese Shi'ites, Lebanon is the most important thing, not a Shi'ite crescent, even though Iran and Hezbollah remain extremely active.

Breaking up (Iraq) is hard to do
Under whoever was in charge - the Ottoman empire, the Hashemites, the British, the Ba'ath Party, Saddam Hussein - Shi'ites in Iraq were always denied political influence. That was the main reason, at the end of the 1950s, for the creation of the Da'wa Party - which became the expression of Shi'ite specificity. Now a Da'wa member, Ibrahim Jaafari, brother-in-law of the Grand Ayatollah Ali al-Sistani, has become prime minister of Iraq, probably to be reconfirmed in the December elections. History has delivered it: this is what Iran had wanted in Iraq since the Islamic revolution in 1979.

The Ba'ath Party and Saddam wanted to create a strong, secular, Arab Iraqi nation. They had everything they needed: a sea of oil, lots of water (unlike any other Arab country) and a significant population. In this ambitious project there was no room for religious or ethnic affirmation. So Kurds as well as Shi'ites were immolated in the altar of this concept - a modern and secular Iraq.
During the 1980s - because of the appeal of Ayatollah Ruhollah Khomeini's Islamic revolution - Saddam's ultimate nightmare was seeing Iraq break up in three weak statelets: a Kurdistan, a "Shi'itestan" and a Sunni center with no oil. That was a key reason for Saddam to launch the Iran-Iraq war in the early 1980s. The pretext, according to Saddam himself, was to recover what Iraqis call Arabistan - the Iranian province of Khuzistan, where most of Iran's oil lies.

George Bush senior, as is well documented, decided to keep Iraq intact. He knew that the inevitable consequence of an implosion of Iraq would be a Kurdistan and a Shi'itestan near the Gulf. That spelled the death sentence for the Shi'ite uprising after Saddam's armies were defeated in early 1991 in the first Gulf War.

Sunni repression was horrendous: more than 40,000 Iraqi Shi'ites were killed and hundreds of thousands had to flee to Iran. It's Western wishful thinking to believe that Iraqi Shi'ites will ever forget this betrayal. In the early 1990s, the Americans, the "international community", Arab regimes, nobody wanted to see the Iraqi state break up. By another cruel historical irony, the Bush junior administration's actions could produce exactly this outcome.

A smatter of Sunni Arab politicians meeting last week in Amman in Jordan proclaimed that Iraqi Sunni Arabs were facing genocide. They fully agreed with Saudi Foreign Minister Saud al-Faisal's recent claim that Iran was destabilizing Iraq. Saudi Arabia never tires to fuel the myth of the Shi'ite crescent.

Iraqi Shi'ites for their part know very well that al-Qaeda wants civil war. They are determined not to succumb to provocation. Sistani has issued a fatwa in full support of the constitution to be voted in mid-October. Shi'ites know they have the numbers to win the general election in December. That will seal the arrival of Shi'ites to real power in Iraq.

This is not about religion - or a Shi'ite crescent. It's about power. A civil war in Iraq is already on. And the Holy Grail is power. The US wants power over the whole Middle East. The Sunnis don't want to lose the power they thought was theirs in Iraq by divine will. Other Sunni Arab regimes in the Middle East obviously hate to see a Shi'ite renaissance. The Shi'ites are about to reach power after centuries of suffering. And al-Qaeda in the Land of the Two Rivers wants power as well, in the form of an Islamic emirate of Iraq, Taliban-style, possibly controlled by Abu Musab al-Zarqawi, who may or may not be a cipher.

Zarqawi was forced to moderate his call of "total war" against Iraqi Shi'ites. Most of the Sunni Arab resistance - led by Iraqi nationalist, former Ba'ath Party military officers - totally rejected it. A resistance communique last week, signed by the First Army of Mohammed, the Islamic Army, the al-Qa'qa Brigades, the Army of the Mujahideen of Iraq and the an-Nasir Salah ad-Din Brigades, proclaimed that "the aim of the Iraqi resistance is the expulsion of the occupation, making it an example for anyone who might dare to think in the future about occupying any Arab or Islamic state".

And according to the powerful Sunni Association of Muslim Scholars, "The Shi'ites of Iraq do not bear the guilt for the brazenly open sectarian policy that the government is pursuing with American blessings. They are not at fault for the naked aggression carried out by the government forces against Tal Afar and other cities, nor for the terrorist crimes against peaceful people."

The Washington-Najaf axis
Sistani said that even if half of Iraq's Shi'ites were killed, there would be no civil war. The message could not be clearer: hold on, power is at hand.

It was much easier for Sistani to deliver this message with the knowledge that the Americans have left "his" holy Najaf for good. Najaf security is now the responsibility of the Badr Organization (previously Badr Brigade), the paramilitary wing of the Supreme Council for the Islamic Revolution in Iraq, which rules the whole of Najaf province. This means that the Iranian-trained Badr, by themselves, have to protect Sistani's life and have to face whatever turbulence is caused by Muqtada al-Sadr's anti-occupation, anti-establishment Mehdi Army.

The Washington-Najaf axis is a neo-con dream. It would fit in a pattern of divide and rule, splitting the Arab world between Sunnis and Shi'ites perpetually at each other's throats. This would include, of course, Shi'ites fighting Sunnis in Hasa, in Saudi Arabia. That's a graphic case of neo-con thinking encouraging the rise of a Shi'ite crescent as a means to weaken the Arab world.

The neo-cons should beware of what they want. It may be exactly what al-Qaeda wants: civil war in Iraq leading to mini-civil wars in Saudi Arabia and the Gulf states and ultimately regime change, but to the benefit, in al-Qaeda's point of view, of Salafi jihadi regimes. As Washington wrestles - at least for public relations purposes - with the dilemma of controlling Iraqi oil or bringing the troops home, the temptation persists of an attack against either Syria or Iran. All scenarios seem to come straight from Pandora's box.

One from the heart
No Shi'ite crescent - and no Shi'ite "international" - to speak of may exist because the Shi'ite galaxy, with the exception of Iran, remains fragmented, polymorphous, an archipelago. Even Shi'ism itself can be fragmented in many factions - Iranian or Arab, with or without a powerful clergy. The only thing that unifies Shi'ite communities everywhere - and that's been the case for almost 1,400 years - is opposition to "illegitimate" Sunni Islam and rejection of other religions.

Of course there is the Iranian Shi'ite "sanctuary", sophisticated Iranian diplomacy and still a pan-Shi'ite Iranian dream. But national and theological antagonisms prevail. The best example is the renewed rivalry between Qom in Iran and Najaf. Iranian ayatollahs are extremely concerned by the ramifications of Shi'ites opposed to the concept of velayat-e-faqih (the ruling of the jurisprudent), the Khomeini-concocted base of the Islamic republic's political system. That's why the renaissance of Najaf - the site of Imam Ali's tomb, the holiest city of Shi'ite Islam - can be so problematic. Sistani, arguably the most important religious authority in Shi'ism today, although an Iranian, sits in Najaf. If the center of gravity of Shi'ism goes back to where it was before - in Iraq - Iran's influence will be tremendously reduced. And Shi'ism - traditionally apolitical - will be back to where it was before the Islamic revolution.

Speculation about an imminent Iranian nuclear bomb have been circulating for at least 10 years. It's fair to speculate on what would be the meaning of a hypothetical Shi'ite bomb. Shi'ism in this case will have not only a political sanctuary, but a nuclear sanctuary. With Iran practically invulnerable to an outside attack, would the religious leadership be tempted to again start exporting its vision of pan-Shi'ism?

Meanwhile, the Shi'ite dream embodied by Iran, or at least the ayatollahs in Qom, keeps burning - the revolutionary power, the aspiration to be the flag-bearer of the misery of the world, a kind of beggars banquet, or the ticket for the beggars to finally accede to a banquet, the last hope for the damned of the earth.

No wonder Sunnis fear the power of this idea, which for Shi'ites comes straight from the heart. It's not unfit that in the 12th century the great Persian poet Nezami Ghanjavi, in the famous Haft Peykar, wrote that "the world is the body/and Iran is the heart".

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