Britain Still Needs Nuclear Arms, Defence Minister Says
http://www.spacewar.com/news/nuclear-doctrine-05zzt.html

London (AFP) Nov 01, 2005 - British Defence Secretary John Reid on Tuesday rejected suggestions that terrorism has rendered Britain's nuclear weapons "redundant," as the government faces a decision on whether to renew its nuclear arsenal.

U.K. Lords Condemn ID Cards Scheme
http://www.spacewar.com/news/terrorwar-05zzzy.html

London (UPI) Nov 01, 2005 - The British government's plans to introduce national identity cards are poised for a tough ride through Parliament after the House of Lords attacked the scheme during a impassioned debate.

G8, Emerging Powers Debate Climate Change In London
http://www.terradaily.com/news/climate-05zzzzzt.html

Tribe Hits Jackpot As Mining Returns To Philippines
http://www.terradaily.com/news/terradaily-05zzd.html

Greenpeace Fined As Rainbow Warrior Damages Philippines Reef
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November 1, 2005 9:50 PM

White House disputes Italy role in Iraq claim

By Adam Entous

WASHINGTON (Reuters) - The White House on Tuesday disputed accusations that Italian intelligence in a 2002 meeting passed off fake documents, showing Iraq was seeking uranium from Niger, that formed part of U.S. President George W. Bush's case for war against Saddam Hussein.

U.S. officials who attended a September 9, 2002, meeting with Italy's spy chief do not recall the issue coming up, said a spokesman for the White House National Security Council. The meeting is central to the accusations.

"No one who was present at the meeting remembers yellow cake (uranium) being discussed nor any documents being passed," spokesman Frederick Jones said.

Bush, in making a case for war in his 2003 State of the Union address, said there was evidence that Iraq tried to buy uranium from Africa to further apparent nuclear-weapons ambitions.

Bush cited British intelligence as the source of the information. But U.S. officials have said in the past that the information was partly traced back to Italian sources.

The White House acknowledged after the war that the intelligence was faulty.

The Niger issue has attracted renewed attention as U.S. special counsel Patrick Fitzgerald wraps up his investigation into the leak of covert CIA operative Valerie Plame's identity. As part of his investigation, Fitzgerald has asked witnesses about the Niger report.

At issue in the documents charges is the September 2002 meeting, between Italy's spy chief, Nicolo Pollari, and Stephen Hadley, then the deputy White House national security adviser. Hadley is now Bush's national security adviser.

Italian Prime Minister Silvio Berlusconi has rejected accusations at home that the intelligence agency, known as Sismi, gave fake documents to Washington about the Niger deal.

On Friday, Berlusconi's office said that there was no mention of the Iraq-Niger affair at Pollari's September 2002 meeting, at which it said Hadley was a just silent guest.

During his visit to the White House on Monday, Berlusconi followed up with Bush, briefly raising the issue, White House spokesman Scott McClellan said.

"COURTESY CALL"

Jones played down the Pollari meeting as an 11-minute "courtesy call."

The White House had previously refused to discuss any details of Hadley's meeting with Pollari.

Berlusconi is one of Washington's strongest allies. Although he did not send troops to join the March 2003 invasion of Iraq, he did send forces after the fall of Baghdad.

"Prime Minister Berlusconi brought it up, and as they indicated, that there wasn't any documents that were provided to us on Niger and uranium," McClellan said.

He said the reference in Bush's State of the Union speech was based on a U.S. National Intelligence Estimate and British intelligence. However, Italy's La Repubblica newspaper said that an Italian middleman provided Britain with forged Niger documents.

Bush's 2003 uranium claim fuelled criticism from Plame's husband, former diplomat Joseph Wilson, that the administration twisted intelligence to bolster its case for war.

Wilson based his criticism in part on a CIA-sponsored mission he made to Africa in 2002 to check out reports that Iraq sought uranium from Niger. Wilson said the report was unsubstantiated, and later accused the White House of leaking his wife's identity in retaliation.


Reuters

http://telegraph.co.uk/news/main.jhtml?xml...01/ixworld.html

Spy agency faked key Vietnam War data
By Francis Harris
(Filed: 01/11/2005)

One of America's spy agencies faked key intelligence used to justify its intervention in the Vietnam War, it was disclosed yesterday.

But the revelation was kept secret by the National Security Agency, partly because of fears that it would boost criticism of the intelligence services over the war in Iraq.

According to material uncovered by the NSA's own historian, Robert Hanyok, middle-ranking officers altered material relating to the Gulf of Tonkin incident.

Two US destroyers, Maddox and Turner Joy, were attacked by North Vietnamese craft in the gulf on Aug 2 1964.

Two days later, amid bad weather and considerable confusion in the US chain of command, Maddox reported that she had been fired on a second time.

Although its commander soon cast doubt on the reports, signals intelligence reported that the North Vietnamese admitted "we sacrificed two ships".

In revenge President Lyndon Johnson ordered air raids against North Vietnamese naval facilities and Congress authorised "all necessary steps including the use of armed force" to defend South Vietnam.

But Mr Hanyok found that timings on key intelligence intercepts had been changed and the "two ships" probably referred to the loss of two sailors in the first attack.

He blamed middle-ranking staff who realised the NSA's mistakes almost immediately but covered them up, not for political reasons, but to hide the original mistakes.

At the time, senior administration officials cited the faked paperwork in testimony before Congress.

It has even been suggested that President Johnson was so keen to deploy troops that he fabricated the whole episode. More than 58,000 Americans and a million Vietnamese died in the ensuing conflict.
National Security Agency

Howard warns of new terror threat CNN International
Australian Prime Minister John Howard warned Wednesday that he had received intelligence information about a specific terror threat to his country, though he refused to divulge details of the threat, citing security concerns.
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CIA Running Secret Prisons Overseas, Declines Comment Muslim American Society
The Central Intelligence Agency (CIA) declined to comment on a newspaper report saying the agency has been hiding and interrogating alleged al-Qaeda captives at secret prisons in Eastern Europe and elsewhere.

The CIA declined to comment on a report saying it was detaining alleged al-Qaeda members at secret prisons in Eastern Europe and other locations overseas.
The prisons, known as "black sites," are, or have been, located in eight countries, including Thailand, Afghanistan and "several democracies in eastern Europe," the daily said, quoting U.S. and foreign officials familiar with the system, reports Agence France-Presse (AFP). Asked about the report published Wednesday, a CIA spokeswoman replied: "We decline to comment." White House spokesman Scott McClellan said, "I'm not going to get into specific intelligence activities. I will say that the president's most important responsibility is to protect the American people." The secret detention centers were set up after the September 11 attacks and are known only to a handful of officials, The Washington Post reported. The names of the eastern European countries were withheld by the Post "at the request of senior U.S. officials," who argued that the disclosure might disrupt counterterrorism efforts in those countries and elsewhere. Russia and Bulgaria immediately denied any facility was there. Thailand also denied it was host to such a facility, reports Reuters. The Central Intelligence Agency has sent more than 100 suspects to the hidden global internment network, said the daily, indicating that the number was a rough estimate and did not include prisoners picked up from Iraq. About 30 of the detainees, considered major terrorism suspects, have been held at black sites financed and managed by the CIA in Eastern Europe and elsewhere - two locations in Thailand and at Guantanamo Bay, Cuba, were closed in 2003 and 2004, the daily said. They are isolated from the outside world, have no recognized legal rights and no one outside the CIA is allowed to talk with or see them, the sources told the newspaper. More than 70 other less important detainees - with less direct involvement in terrorism and having limited intelligence value, some of whom were originally interned at black sites, have been delivered to intelligence services in Egypt, Jordan, Morocco, Afghanistan and other countries, under a process known as "rendition," the daily added. The State Department has issued human rights reports accusing Egypt, Jordan and Morocco of abusing prisoners. The Post, citing several former and current intelligence and other U.S. government officials, said the CIA used such detention centers abroad because in the United States it is illegal to hold prisoners in such isolation, reports Reuters. The CIA and the White House have dissuaded the U.S. Congress from asking questions in open testimony about the facilities or their conditions, the daily said. "Virtually nothing is known about who is kept in the facilities, what interrogation methods are employed with them, or how decisions are made about whether they should be detained or for how long," the Post said. The covert prison system is "known only to a handful of officials in the United States and, usually, only to the president and a few top intelligence officers in each host country," said the newspaper, which pieced together the "contours" of the CIA detention program over the past two years. The Bush administration's policy toward prisoners taken in Afghanistan and Iraq has come under heavy criticism at home and abroad. Inmate abuse at Baghdad's Abu Ghraib prison was strongly condemned in the Muslim world and among U.S. allies while many have called for more openness about those being held at a U.S. navy base at Guantanamo Bay in Cuba, reports Reuters. On Tuesday, Defense Secretary Donald Rumsfeld spurned a request by U.N. human rights investigators and denied them the opportunity to meet with detainees at the Guantanamo prison for foreign terrorism suspects, the news agency reports. But the administration also faced problems at home. In an October 5 bipartisan vote, the Senate approved 90-9 an amendment to regulate the Pentagon's handling of military detainees by establishing rules for their interrogation and treatment despite strong White House opposition.
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Iran Purges 40 Ambassadors in Shake-Up

By ALI AKBAR DAREINI

TEHRAN, Iran -- Iran's hard-line government said Wednesday it was removing 40 ambassadors and senior diplomats, including supporters of warmer ties with the West, from their posts in a shake-up that comes as the Islamic republic takes a more confrontational international stance.

Foreign Minister Manouchehr Mottaki announced the changes to parliament, saying "the missions of more than 40 ambassadors and heads of Iranian diplomatic missions abroad will expire by the end of the year," which is March 20 under the Iranian calendar.

Mottaki, quoted by the state-run Islamic Republic News Agency, did not specify which ambassadors were among those being removed.

But IRNA said they included the ambassador to London, Mohammad Hossein Adeli, one of Iran's top diplomats and a leading member of the pragmatic foreign policy wing that supports contacts with Europe.

The moves give the new government of ultraconservative President Mahmoud Ahmadinejad the chance to purge pro-reform figures brought in by his predecessor, moderate Mohammad Khatami, and install its own supporters.

Ahmadinejad has taken a tougher line on a number of issues, particularly negotiations with Britain, France and Germany over Iran's controversial nuclear program. Hard-liners have criticized Khatami's government for agreeing to freeze much of the country's atomic activities during the talks, and Ahmadinejad already has replaced much of the negotiating team with hard-liners.

The new president, elected in June, also generated a storm of international criticism last week when he called for Israel's eradication, saying it should be "wiped off the map."

Tensions with Europe and the United States over the nuclear issue are high after Iran ended part of its freeze on nuclear activities earlier this year, resuming uranium conversion at a plant in Isfahan. Washington accuses Iran of secretly aiming to develop nuclear weapons, while Tehran counters that its nuclear program is for generating electricity.

The U.N. nuclear watchdog agency, the International Atomic Energy Agency, will review Iran's cooperation on the nuclear issue during a Nov. 24 meeting, and Washington is pressing for Tehran to be referred to the U.N. Security Council, where it could face sanctions for violating the Nuclear Nonproliferation Treaty.

Sanctions, however, are unlikely.

Iran is sending conflicting signals to an international community concerned about its nuclear agenda, granting U.N. inspectors access to a secret military site but also saying it would process a new batch of uranium that could be used to make atomic weapons, diplomats in Vienna, Austria, said Wednesday on condition of anonymity because they were not authorized to talk to the media.

The diplomats said IAEA experts were allowed to revisit a high-security military site in Parchin as they try to establish whether Tehran has a secret nuclear weapons program.

Parchin has been linked by the United States and other nations to alleged experiments linked to nuclear arms. The IAEA had for months been trying to follow up on a visit in January for further checks of buildings and areas within the sprawling military complex as it looks for traces of radioactivity.

Iran also has handed over documents and granted interviews with several senior officials believed linked to black market purchases of uranium enrichment technology, the diplomats said.

Ahmadinejad's victory in June elections sealed the decline of Iran's reform movement and solidified the control of hard-liners over the government. Some Iranians fear Ahmadinejad _ a longtime member of Iran's elite Revolutionary Guards _ will bring back the policies of restrictions at home and confrontation abroad seen after the 1979 Islamic Revolution led by Ayatollah Ruhollah Khomeini.

On Wednesday, more than 10,000 demonstrators shouted "Death to America!" and "Death to Israel!" in front of the former U.S. Embassy in Tehran in the largest such demonstration in years.

Hard-liners organize protests at the site annually to mark the anniversary of the Nov. 4, 1979 seizure of the embassy by student militants.

Demonstrators carried a large picture of Ahmadinejad emblazoned with his quote, "Israel must be wiped off the map." They burned U.S. and Israeli flags and effigies of President Bush and Israeli Prime Minister Arial Sharon. Some wore a traditional Palestinian kaffiyah headdress, symbolizing their readiness to fight Israel.

"We have to continue our confrontation with the United States and Israel. This could help the world get rid of the arrogant powers," the hard-line Jomhuri Eslami daily said in an editorial.

___

Associated Press reporter George Jahn in Vienna, Austria, contributed to this report.


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British Arabism and the bombings in Iran
By Mahan Abedin and Kaveh Farrokh

Following the recent bomb attack in Ahwaz and the riots and bombings in late spring, the Iranian government, as well as other sections of Iranian society both inside and outside the country, has pointed an accusing finger at the United Kingdom.

On the surface the accusations seem implausible, not least because they invoke irrational Iranian fears of British guile and omnipotence. However, there is a mass of evidence that connects the British secret state to Arab separatism in Iran.

Whether these connections make the United Kingdom complicit in the recent troubles in Khuzestan is currently unclear. But, at



the very least, the British connection fatally undermines claims that the recent troubles in Iran's strategic southwestern province are either wholly rooted in local conditions or the work of elements in the Islamic republic who seek to "militarize" the country.

British Arabism
An in-depth understanding of the British sponsorship of Arab separatism in Iran requires an understanding of British Arabism in its entirety. Francis Fukuyama, in his description of the American Arabists, opines that they are "... a sociological phenomenon ... Arabists not only take on the cause of the Arabs, but also the Arabs' tendency for self-delusion".

That tendency for self-delusion is vividly expressed by the main tenets of Arab nationalism, which views all non-Arab Muslim peoples as subsidiary to the Arab language and culture. Moreover, Robert Kaplan observes that psychologically the English-speaking Arabist is "obsessed with the Arabs ... a defining Arabist trait". This psychological process is subsumed under British commercial and political interests. This is vividly exemplified in the case of T E Lawrence, as defined by Kaplan (1993): "Lawrence ... among Arabs in the desert ... became pro-Arab; in Whitehall he was pro-Empire."

British Arabism can trace its origins to geopolitical imperialism, namely the need to project political, economic, and if necessary, military power into Persia. The first official Arabists are Sir Charles Lyall (1845-1920) and William Muit, both civil servants of the British East India Company.

Lyall published works on Arabic literature, including pre-Islamic odes, while Muit wrote extensively about the Arab caliphate. It is difficult to ascertain why they were so keenly interested specifically in Arabic, as Arabic, along with Persian and Sanskrit, had been banned from India's educational system since the 1830s. Another early Arabist was a Cambridge professor, E H Palmer, whose knowledge of Arabic was useful in his role as a secret agent in Egypt, where he died in action in August 1882.

It was in the Arab Bureau of Cairo, however, where British Arabism was formally implemented as a tool for the advancement of British geopolitical and economic interests. The Arab Bureau was set up on February 4, 1916. It was from here that the British coordinated their activities with the local Arab sheikhs of the Persian Gulf.

Their main mission by World War I was to foster an Arab rebellion by way of the invention of Arab nationalism, a domain viewed as a "product" by the British Foreign Office and the Arab Bureau. The primary objective was to accomplish the dissolution of the Ottoman Empire. Arab nationalism, since the conclusion of World War I, has been encouraged to focus itself against Iran, an ideological proclivity that was taken to its logical extremes by the Ba'athist regime of Saddam Hussein.

Today, the Arab Bureau survives in the form of various innocuous-sounding organizations, namely the Arab-British Center, the CAABU (Council for the Advancement of Arab-British Understanding), the Arab-British Charitable Trust, the Labor Middle East Council, the Anglo-Arab Association and (until 1979) MECAS (Middle East Center for Arab Studies).

While British Arabism has penetrated many sectors of British national life, it is particularly influential in the intelligence, academic and media fields. It is interesting to note that British academic Arabists do not focus on the entire Arab world, which includes Egypt and Libya. Instead, the British academic Arabists have been almost exclusively preoccupied with the eastern Arab world, which is contiguous to Iran (historical Persia) and the Persian Gulf, areas rich in fossil fuels and hence of prime importance to British economic and commercial interests.

To summarize, British Arabism, although a genuine academic discipline and psychological condition, is ultimately a device for furthering British interests in the Middle East. Moreover, the apparent advocacy of Arab issues among British Arabists is selective in three ways:


They have remained largely silent (or neutral) with respect to the Arab-Palestinian disputes with the Israelis.

They have opposed the formation of a single unified Arab superstate along the lines proposed by T E Lawrence.

They actively support anti-Persian views with respect to the role of Persia in the geography, linguistics, anthropology, archaeology, history and culture of Islam, the Arabic world, and the Persian Gulf.

British intelligence and Iranian Arab separatists
The severing of Iran's Khuzestan province and its "Arabization" has been a long-held British goal. In fact, this policy was made clear in the November 2, 1944 editorial of the Times of London, which proposed Iran's dismemberment by having Khuzestan appropriated by the British.

To achieve this long-term objective, British Arabists have supported Arab nationalist activities (academic and military) against Iran and in Khuzestan in particular. Needless to say, this plan neatly converged with the ideology and geopolitical aspirations of Arab nationalists, particularly of the Ba'athist variety.

When Iraq invaded Iran on September 22, 1980, with the stated intent of annexing Khuzestan, the BBC news network and English print media, as well as other major Western media outlets, provided full overage of the Iraqi invasion in the first week.

There were two main premises to the reporting: (a) Iranian resistance would collapse quickly; ( the Arabs of Khuzestan would fully support the invasion. These premises proved to be utterly unfounded, with Iranian resistance actually stiffening, leading to the permanent expulsion of Saddam's armies from Khuzestan in 1982. The vast majority of Iranian Arabs not only did not support Saddam, but were in fact at the forefront of resistance to the Iraqi invaders.

The failed Iraqi invasion of Khuzestan (which was partly based on British invasion plans dating back to 1937) has been, to date, the most concerted and determined effort to sever the province from Iran. The fact that it failed was a massive blow to small groups of separatists in the area, and they would have likely faded away had it not been for the patronage of the Iraqi and British intelligence services.

Although Iranian Arab separatists have had a presence in the UK since the 1970s, their activities became noteworthy after the 1979 Islamic revolution. Working in concert with Iraqi intelligence services, Khuzestani separatists engaged in low-level sabotage operations against Iranian interests in the UK and mainland European countries.

These sabotage activities reached a dramatic climax on April 30, 1980 when Iraqi-backed Khuzestani separatists seized the Iranian Embassy in London. The subsequent siege lasted for five days, during which time Iraqi agents killed two of the embassy's staff. But the terrorists offered virtually no resistance when Britain's elite Special Air Services stormed the embassy building, killing five out of the six Iraqi agents.

The dramatic events at the embassy were very much the exception to the rule, as far as British pressure on UK-based Khuzestani separatists was concerned. Indeed, from the early 1980s, the UK has been home to almost all expatriate Khuzestani separatists (with a small number also based in Baghdad), where their activities are tolerated as long as they do not engage in brazen acts of violence on British soil.

Behind the scenes, however, British toleration in the 1980s translated into active cooperation with the separatists. In some cases, the British even shared separatist agents with the Iraqi intelligence services. In two specific cases dating back to 1985, the British used Khuzestani separatists to infiltrate the Iranian consulate in Manchester and the Iranian Air Force logistics office in the National Iranian Oil Company office in Westminster.

It is interesting to note that both the Iranian consulate in Manchester and the logistics office were closed down by the British government in 1987. It is unclear whether information supplied by the separatist agents was a decisive factor in the closure of these establishments.

But the spirit of public toleration and private cooperation collapsed, almost overnight, after the Iraqi invasion of Kuwait on August 2, 1990. Saddam's brazen challenge to the West and Iraq's desire to change the geopolitical balance of the region forced Western intelligence services to cease their cooperation with their Iraqi counterparts. Khuzestani Arab separatists were one of the many victims of this sudden collapse in relations between Iraq and the West.

The Gulf War of early 1991 and the catastrophic defeat of Iraq further added to the separatists' woes. Today, Khuzestani separatist spokesmen in the UK claim that their cooperation with Iraqi intelligence services ended after the Iran-Iraq War in 1988.

While it is clearly convenient for the separatists to make such claims, this stance raises far more questions than answers. Firstly, intelligence links (particularly those that are deep-rooted and underpinned by ideological affinity, as in the case of the Khuzestani separatists and the Iraqi Ba'athists) are too complex to be severed so immediately and abruptly.

Secondly, given that Khuzestani separatism (because of its unpopularity with almost all Iranian Arabs) is only viable when allied to the foreign policy of a powerful state, severing links with the Iraqis would have been followed by patronage by another state.

But this was not the case. The only other state with the historical motivation, connections and unique resources to consistently support the separatists is the United Kingdom, but evidence strongly suggests that the British authorities dramatically decreased their cooperation after the events of 1990 and early 1991. Indeed, in some cases the British even put up serious obstacles, for instance making it difficult for separatists to travel to countries such as Greece, Cyprus, Turkey and Lebanon to meet with their Iraqi handlers.

British government opposition notwithstanding, Khuzestani separatists continued to operate in the UK in the 1990s. In many cases they were absorbed by the Anglo-Arab organizations mentioned earlier. While in many cases these organizations are engaged in genuine academic, media and advocacy work, there is little doubt that they are ultimately controlled by the British secret state.

The US-led invasion and occupation of Iraq in 2003 and the consequent pressures this has exerted on Iran has made Khuzestani separatism (and other separatist movements in Iran) relevant insofar as it can be used by the West as a pressure point on Tehran. The recent events in Khuzestan are a good example of this.

Trouble in Khuzestan
The riots and bomb attacks that occurred in Khuzestan in late spring, coupled with the latest bombing, have been attributed to widely different causes. The Iranian government claims that both the riots and the bombings were essentially the work of foreign elements.

The Khuzestani separatists in the UK, anxious to deflect attention from separatist violence, pin the blame on elements in the Islamic republic which seek to militarize the country. Both positions suffer from serious flaws.

Firstly, while the Iranian government is correct to attribute the bombings to foreign elements, it is not being wholly truthful when it dismisses the riots as foreign-inspired. Iranian Arabs in Khuzestan have a number of economic grievances, with roots that may go back decades. These economic woes were sharply exacerbated by the failed Iraqi invasion of Khuzestan, which destroyed the livelihoods of many Iranian Arabs. It would be safe to assume that economic grievances were, at the very least, a factor in the riots of late spring.

Secondly, the Khuzestani separatist position that the bombings were the work of the Iranian government smacks of clumsily constructed conspiracy theory that does not stand up to even perfunctory scrutiny. The statement by the Khuzestani separatist spokesman that the bombings were either the work of the "Pasdaran or the Basij" immediately discredits their argument, as the Basij and the Pasdaran (Iranian Revolutionary Guard Corps) are effectively the same entity.

The contention that terrorist organizations do not target their own people is clearly false, as virtually every terrorist organization in the world has victims (in varying degrees) among the people they purports to represent. Furthermore, claims that the Khuzestani separatists are "non-violent" fly in the face of their actual record (the seizure of the Iranian Embassy in London and the killing of two of its employees was clearly not an example of peaceful activism) and is in fact oxymoronic: how can dismembering a nation and producing false historical narratives be achieved by "non-violence"?

Sources in Tehran are in little doubt that the recent bombings are the work of separatists in Khuzestan who are ultimately controlled by the remnants of the former Iraqi intelligence services. These intelligence services controlled impressive intelligence and sabotage networks in Khuzestan, and it is safe to assume that some of these networks have remained intact since the collapse of the Ba'athist regime in April 2003.

The motivation behind the bombings is not altogether clear. While sources in Tehran claim that former officers of Iraq's Istikhbarat and Mukhabarat agencies are keen to export the Iraqi insurgency into Iran, it is unclear how this can be done with infrequent and isolated bombings in Khuzestan.

A more likely explanation is that the remnants of Istikhbarat and Mukhabarat are exacting revenge on Iran for the targeted assassinations of their members since the collapse of the Ba'athist regime. A generally under-reported feature of the troubles in Iraq is the very careful and systematic targeting of influential elements in the former regime by either Shi'ite organizations (in particular the Badr Organization - formerly the Badr Corps - of the Supreme Council for the Islamic Revolution in Iraq) or by covert Iranian operatives in Iraq. The Badr organization has been particularly prolific in this regard, and has recently been accused of even targeting Arab Sunni pilots in the Iraqi air force.

Iranian allegations that the British government is complicit in this terrorist campaign have as yet not been substantiated by any evidence on the ground. But warming relations between the British government and the very small number of Khuzestani Arab separatists in the UK does raise concerns about the British government's position on this complex situation.

But it is important to place these concerns in perspective, not least because, contrary to their claims, the Khuzestani separatists have no proper organization in the UK. Their presence is reducible to a few key personalities who run several websites that try to create the impression that there are large socio-political networks behind them. [1]

What all these websites have in common is the desire to produce a spurious ethnic counter-narrative. To do this the Khuzestani separatists (and their British patrons) amalgamate a series of suppositions, half-truths and myths. All of this is underpinned by the assertion that the Arabs in Khuzestan constitute a majority, yet no valid ethnic statistics have been produced to verify such claims.

Little mention is made of the fact that Khuzestan is inhabited not only by Arabs but by an array of ethnic groups, including Bakhtiaris, Behbahanis, Lurs in the north, Afshari and Qashqai tribes, and Persians in the major cities.

Moreover, the separatists' counter-narrative is guided by a very biased selection of information and the retroactive Arabization of Iranian history and civilization. Furthermore, claims that Arabs in Iran constitute a persecuted minority are as false as they are amusing. In fact, since the Islamic revolution of 1979, the Iranian government has gone out of its way to promote the Arabic language (at the expense of Persian) in its drive to "Islamize" Iranian society.

It is also important to note that Iran's current defense minister, Ali Shamkhani, is an ethnic Arab from Khuzestan. Claims by Khuzestani separatists that the Iranian regime is engaged in the persecution of minorities is particularly strange when one considers the fact that the Islamic republic has shown extreme sympathy for Arab causes both inside and outside of Iran.

Conclusion
The terrorist campaign in Iran's Khuzestan province is essentially a by-product of the invasion and occupation of Iraq. There can be little doubt that the terrorists are ultimately controlled by insurgent networks in Iraq. There is simply no other rational or convincing explanation for these unusual events.

Moreover, the deteriorating security situation in Iraq makes it likely that Khuzestan will continue to experience terrorist bombings for the foreseeable future.

While the Iranian government is keen to implicate the British in the terrorist campaign for obvious propaganda and counter-propaganda reasons, the British have much to answer for their historical connections to Khuzestani separatists. Furthermore, it is clear that the British see the situation in Khuzestan, and the presence of separatists in the UK, as a useful pressure point on the Islamic republic, as the stand-off over Iran's nuclear infrastructure steadily deteriorates into a crisis.

In the final analysis, Khuzestani Arab separatism does not pose any serious threat to Iran's territorial integrity. The only entity with the overriding ideological and geopolitical motivation to provide significant support to Khuzestani separatists was a strong Iraqi state, and this was blasted away - probably forever - by the US-led invasion of Iraq in 2003.

Note
[1] The main so-called "Ahwazi" websites are the following:

al-Ahwaz This site has a fancy introduction along with a "national anthem". Their symbols are almost a carbon copy of Ba'athist Party insignia (note the Ba'athist eagle). There is a Persian version of the al-Ahwaz site.

The Ahwaz Studies Center purports to be an academic establishment, when in fact it is an anti-Persian site complaining of "ethnic cleansing". This is a dangerous and misleading term - falsely implying violence. For instance, the article on Minoo Island conveniently fails to mention that in any industrial project people are relocated.

The London-based British-Ahwazi Friendship Association is a relatively new site and claims as its chairman Daniel Brett, an Englishman. The site is linked directly to the aforementioned Ahwaz Studies Center, the Democratic Solidarity Party of Ahwaz, Ahwaz Human Rights Organization, and al-Ahwaz Television. Interestingly, the site is also selectively linked to other separatist organizations such as "The Democratic Party of Iranian Kurdistan" as well as to the "Iraqi Turkmen Human Rights" organization. Of interest is the "treasurer" of the British-Ahwazi Friendship Association: Mansour Silawi-Ahwazi, who also hosts a separate and particularly amusing site. On this he posted An Arab National Re-Birth Searching for its Identity in an attempt to convey the impression of a separate Arab state since 4000 BC; ie about 4,500 years before the efflorescence of Arab civilization on the Arabian peninsula.

Mahan Abedin is the editor of Terrorism Monitor, which is published by the Jamestown Foundation, a non-profit organization specializing in research and analysis on conflict and instability in Eurasia. The views expressed here are his own.

Dr Kaveh Farrokh has a PhD from the University of British Columbia, specializing in the cognitive and linguistic processes of Persian. He has researched and written extensively on the role of British imperialism in Persia, as well as the pan-Turanian movement. His book, Sassanian Elite Cavalry AD 224-642 was published by Osprey Publishing. He lectures on the history of pre-Islamic Persia at the University of British Columbia in Vancouver. A new book encompassing Persia's military and cultural relations with the Greco-Roman world between 553BC-637 AD is due to be released in the fall of 2006.

(Copyright 2005 Asia Times Online Ltd. All rights reserved. Please contact us for information on sales, syndication and republishing.)

http://www.worldtribune.com/worldtribune/0....157638889.html

U.S. fears prospect of Saudi coup, weighs invasion plans

SPECIAL TO WORLD TRIBUNE.COM
Tuesday, November 1, 2005
WASHINGTON — The United States has raised the prospect of a military invasion of Saudi Arabia.

The House Armed Services Committee considered the possibility of a Saudi coup and U.S. response during a hearing on Oct. 26.

Saudi Arabia, with 200,000 military and National Guard troops, is the largest oil producer and exporter, with an output of nine million barrels of oil per day, according to Middle East Newsline. The Arab kingdom is the third largest supplier of oil to the United States, with more than 1.55 million barrels per day.
The scenario was outlined by Michael O'Hanlon, a senior fellow of the Brookings Institution, who cited a Saudi coup as one of several threats to the United States.

"How should the United States respond if a coup, presumably fundamentalist in nature, overthrows the royal family in Saudi Arabia?" O'Hanlon asked. "Such a result would raise the specter of major disruption to the oil economy."

The response could include the deployment of three U.S. Army divisions backed by fighter-jets and airborne early-warning and alert aircraft. In all, the U.S.-led mission could include up to 300,000 troops.

Congressional sources said the House hearing, which focused on future threats in the Middle East and other regions, marked increasing U.S. concern of Saudi instability. They said the open hearing echoed a series of briefings on Saudi and Gulf Arab instability given by non-government analysts to the State Department, Defense Department and National Security Council since 2002.

The House committee was told that U.S. concern of a Saudi coup appears greater than ever. O'Hanlon said such a coup would also destabilize Pakistan, a nuclear power since 1998.

"This type of scenario has been discussed for at least two decades and remains of concern today — perhaps even more so — given the surge of terrorist violence in Saudi Arabia in recent years as well as the continued growth and hostile ideology of Al Qaida along with the broader Wahabi movement," O'Hanlon said. In his testimony, O'Hanlon envisioned a Saudi coup as resulting in the emergence of what he termed a fundamentalist regime intent on acquiring nuclear weapons. Another prospect was that the new regime would seek to disrupt the oil market.

"Indeed, it might be feasible not to do anything at first, and hope that the new regime gradually realized the benefits of reintegrating Saudi Arabia at least partially into the global oil economy," O'Hanlon said. "But in the end the United States and other western countries might consider using force."

O'Hanlon envisioned a U.S.-led military operation designed to seize Saudi oil wells, located along the eastern coast. Washington and its allies would place the proceeds from Saudi oil sales into escrow for a future pro-Western government in Riyad.

A U.S.-led military force of 300,000 would be required to secure the entire Saudi Arabia, O'Hanlon said. He said about 10,000 troops could capture eastern Saudi Arabia, which contains virtually all of the kingdom's oil wells. But more than 100,000 additional troops would be required to protect the wells and other vital infrastructure.

"An operation to overthrow the new Saudi regime and gradually stabilize a country of the size in question would probably require in the vicinity of 300,000 troops, using standard sizing criteria," O'Hanlon said. "So in fact a coastal strategy, while easier in some ways and perhaps less bloody in the initial phases, could be fully half as large and might last much longer."

Copyright © 2005 East West Services, Inc.

What's on during Ramadan? Antiterror TV
The evening serials during the holy month are like November television
sweeps in the US. By Charles Levinson
http://www.csmonitor.com/2005/1103/p01s03-wome.html?s=hns

Clash of visions for Latin America
It's Bush vs. Chavez as 33 heads of state ready to meet for Summit of
the Americas. By Howard LaFranchi
http://www.csmonitor.com/2005/1103/p01s04-usfp.html?s=hns

Rumbles of radicalism in Kurdistan
The presence of Al Qaeda and Ansar al-Sunna cells stunned Iraq's
moderate north. By Scott Peterson
http://www.csmonitor.com/2005/1103/p04s02-woiq.html?s=hns

Two Koreas' dream: one Olympic team
The North and South have agreed in principle to field one team for the
2008 games in Beijing. By Donald Kirk
http://www.csmonitor.com/2005/1103/p05s01-woap.html?s=hns

In Azerbaijan, a 'necktie' revolt
As the Nov. 6 election looms, opposition groups take inspiration from
revolutions in Ukraine and Georgia. By Yigal Schleifer
http://www.csmonitor.com/2005/1103/p06s01-wosc.html?s=hns

Zanzibar vote could spark extremism
Election results have ignited violent protests in the moderate Muslim
islands. By Mike Pflanz
http://www.csmonitor.com/2005/1103/p06s02-woaf.html?s=hns

French Riots Underscore Deeper Problems
http://www.spacewar.com/news/europe-05zg.html

Paris (UPI) Nov 02, 2005 - Six straight nights of clashes between French police and rioters in Paris-area housing projects are laying bare simmering discrimination and ethnic tensions lying just under the country's officially colorblind creed of liberty, equality and fraternity.

Riots roil suburbs of Paris for 7th day Boston Globe
President Jacques Chirac met with his Cabinet yesterday to map strategy to end rioting that spread to 13 predominantly immigrant towns on the outskirts of Paris. After darkness fell yesterday, youths turned out in several areas for a seventh night of mayhem, setting cars on fire and throwing rocks at police. ''Zones without law cannot exist in the republic," Chirac told his Cabinet in a closed meeting, according to his spokesman, Jean-François Cope. The president declared that law would be enforced firmly, but he also acknowledged frustrations in immigrant neighborhoods and urged dialogue, Cope said. Chirac has not addressed the French public about the unrest that erupted last Thursday night when two Muslim teenagers of African heritage were electrocuted in a power substation while dodging a police checkpoint in the impoverished town of Chichy-sous-Bois, northeast of Paris. A rapid escalation of the violence Tuesday night appeared to shock the French leadership. Gangs set fire to as many as 228 vehicles in 13 poor, immigrant communities, according to local police and news media. Last night, the violence continued, with youths setting fire to vehicles and trash cans in nine areas near Paris. On Tuesday, youths attacked a fire station in the northern suburban town of Aulnay-sous-Bois and a vacant social center in the southeastern community of Seine-en-Marne and set fire to cars in towns in the Yvelines region, west of the capital, police said. Riot police, bunched together behind shields, fired rubber-coated bullets, stun grenades, and tear gas canisters in efforts to disperse the attackers. Television footage showed one group of riot policemen pointing their guns through the window of an apartment building's door, as women and children cowered. The violence was contagious in communities of immigrants and second-generation French citizens where unemployment is more than twice the national average, crime is rampant, social services are minimal, and residents are packed into the shabby high-rise apartments of subsidized housing. ''This problem is exploding in the face of the government," said Dominique Moïsi, deputy director of the French Institute of International Relations. ''They have politicized it so much they are making fools of themselves. There's the image of Paris burning and that is very, very bad." Because of the violence, Prime Minister Dominique de Villepin postponed a visit to Canada yesterday, and Interior Minister Nicolas Sarkozy canceled a four-day trip to Pakistan and Afghanistan. Chirac's Cabinet met through the day yesterday, but announced no plans for countering the violence. Villepin and Sarkozy have accused each other of inaction. ''The spectacle of the open rift over this issue between the prime minister and his allies on the one hand and the interior minister and his supporters on the other is pathetic," the newspaper Liberation said yesterday. It said the unrest has become a pretext for ''a new test of strength" between the presidential contenders.
Seventh night of violence hits Paris suburbs Khaleej Times
Chirac Appeals for Calm as Violent Protests Shake Paris's Suburbs New York Times
CBC News - Scotsman - Telegraph.co.uk - Special Broadcasting Service - all 644 related »

http://euobserver.com/9/20239


Alleged CIA detention camp in eastern Europe sparks MEPs' outrage
02.11.2005 - 17:39 CET | By Mark Beunderman EUOBSERVER / BRUSSELS - A media report alleging the CIA runs a secret camp in eastern Europe where it interrogates al Qaeda suspects has caused strong concern in Europe, with MEPs calling for an EU investigation into the matter.

According to an article in leading US newspaper the Washington Post on Wednesday (2 November), the US intelligence branch, the CIA, has detained top Al Qaeda suspects at a compound dating back to the Soviet era and located somewhere in eastern Europe.

The newspaper does not say if the camp is located on existing EU territory or in Romania or Bulgaria, for example.

It is also unclear if there is more than one camp, with the paper sometimes referring to the "eastern European countries" concerned in the plural, adding that US officials advised against publication of the countries' names for fear of terrorist reprisals.

Senior intelligence sources told the Washington Post that the al Qaeda prisoners are held in complete isolation from the outside world, have no recognised legal rights, and are probably subject to the CIA's controversial "Enhanced Interrogation Techniques".

European Commission and EU diplomats on Wednesday (2 November) declined to comment on the report.

"This is an issue between the US and any member states concerned", a commission spokeswoman said.

The spokeswoman for EU foreign policy chief Javier Solana indicated that "this has nothing to do with the European Union".

MEPs want Brussels to take action
But MEPs have called for an urgent EU investigation into the matter.

UK liberal MEP and member of the parliament’s civil liberties committee baroness Sarah Ludford said "I will be asking commissioner Frattini to check out urgently this suggestion that EU member states may be implicated in the most barbaric practices of the misguided US 'war on terror'".

She added that if EU member states were involved "this has the most devastating implications for the EU's credibility in upholding human rights and the rule of law".

Dutch green MEP Kathalijne Buitenweg, also a member of the civil liberties committee as well as of the EU-US parliamentary delegation said that "Mr Solana should clarify with the Americans what exactly is going on".

"If human rights are violated in an EU country, or in a candidate member state, than this is an EU issue", she added.

Ms Buitenweg indicated the parliament’s civil liberties and foreign affairs committees should discuss ways for the European Parliament to further research the issue itself.

The member announced she would personally raise the question at an EU-US parliamentary meeting in December.

Trauma from Soviet times
The matter looks set to cause outrage in eastern Europe, which is traditionally strongly allied with the US but which also experienced grave human rights violations in the past by former communist secret services.

Slovak centre-right MEP Miroslav Mikolasik said these memories made him "convinced" that the CIA camp cannot possibly be located in his own country.

"We had too painful experiences from the Soviet time with the conditions under which political prisoners were held", he said, adding "We hate these kinds of procedures".

The Wahington Post notes that CIA interrogators abroad are permitted to use the CIA's "Enhanced Interrogation Techniques".

The techniques, prohibited under the US' own military law as well as under UN rules, include tactics such as "waterboarding," in which a prisoner is made to believe he or she is drowning.

© 2005 EUobserver, All rights reserved

http://www.atimes.com/atimes/Middle_East/GK04Ak01.html
Al-Qaeda goes back to base
By Syed Saleem Shahzad

KARACHI - Al-Qaeda is in the process of a decisive ideological debate that could see the highly secretive group restructured within a year, with bases in Iraq and Afghanistan, and adopting a more open, centralized, approach.

Two issues lie at the heart of the matter. The first is whether al-Qaeda achieves its aims by "fighting against evil", or whether it "fights against evil and its allies", according to contacts familiar with the group who spoke to Asia Times Online.

The second issue involves al-Qaeda's lack of a physical base, a matter of concern to Islamic scholars, following its retreat from



Afghanistan and subsequently being forced out of hideouts along the Afghanistan-Pakistan border.

Regarding the discourse on al-Qaeda's enemy, on one side a major portion of al-Qaeda wants to remain true to the original goal of ousting foreign forces from the Persian Gulf region and ending the occupation of Muslim territories; on the other, a powerful group led by Egyptian Abu Amro Abdul Hakeem, also known as Sheikh Essa, who has strongly influenced elements in Pakistan and Saudi Arabia, believes that the targets should be extended.

In al-Qaeda jargon, there are dajal (anti-God) forces, and there are pro-God forces. The US and its European allies are dajal forces, and remain the primary target of the majority in al-Qaeda.

Sheikh Essa argues that the Muslim leaderships in Saudi Arabia, Yemen, Jordan, Egypt and, not least, Pakistan should not be considered pro-God forces, as they are now.

Saudi Arabia and Pakistan are central in this debate. Sheikh Essa fervently believes that the Pakistani military is as bad as that of the US, and thus should be categorized as an anti-God force whose leader, President General Pervez Musharraf, sides with the US with full conviction.

The October 8 earthquake in South Asia, which has claimed tens of thousands of lives, most of them in Pakistan-administered Kashmir, has added incendiary clout to Sheikh Essa, whose followers now claim that the disaster was God's revenge against Pakistan, especially as it took place exactly on the fourth anniversary of the launch of US air sorties from Pakistani bases to strike against Afghanistan, where al-Qaeda had a strong presence.

The Sheikh Essa faction has other reasons to hate the Pakistani establishment as it is seen as having betrayed the al-Qaeda cause by handing over hundreds of al-Qaeda members, and even their children and wives, to US authorities; this following Pakistan's reversal of its support for the Taliban and the Pakistani army being sent into the tribal areas to root out foreign fighters and members of the Afghan resistance.

Osama bin Laden has always resisted taking the fight to Muslim countries. According to scholars such as Saad al-Faqih, who is considered very close to al-Qaeda, bin Laden understands that a major blow against Saudi Arabia would bring down the regime, but the ensuing chaos and mayhem would be reason for the US to justify sending its troops into the holy land.

The senior al-Qaeda leadership believes that only Musharraf is "pro-God" , and not the Pakistani Army; therefore for the time being they want to leave Pakistan alone and keep their focus on the US.

Asia Times Online contacts close to al-Qaeda say that recently the top leadership has become alarmed at the widening split within the organization and has begun consultations with all major Islamic jihadi groups and scholars.

Pending the results of these deliberations, expected by the end of this northern winter, a definitive and final word on the real course of the struggle will be reached, after which major decisions are expected on the shape and nature of al-Qaeda.

Back to base
Many among Islamic groups, scholars and educated masses in the Islamic world are sympathetic with al-Qaeda's struggle against US imperialism, but they have serious reservations over its shadowy nature and its methods of operation, many of which, they believe, go against the tenets of Islam.

From the days of the Prophet Mohammed it has been established that neither the message of Islam nor its struggle is a secret. Therefore, Muslim scholars are agreed that an Islamic state is a prerequisite before - and from which - jihad can be waged.

This places al-Qaeda in something of a spot, as nowadays it has no "home base" from which to wage jihad. In discussions in the past several months with prominent scholars and a top leader of an Islamic group (followed by Asia Times Online contacts), al-Qaeda leaders argued that they were fighting a defensive jihad as Afghanistan had been attacked and occupied, followed by Iraq. Since they don't have a piece of land in their possession, al-Qaeda has had to conduct irregular and guerrilla warfare.

However, the contacts maintain that the al-Qaeda leadership is optimistic that by the start of summer next year they will be in control of significant "space" in Iraq and in Afghanistan, which would legitimize their jihad in the eyes of scholars.

This would include appointing an ameer (commander) whose name would be announced, and al-Qaeda's irregular fighting would be organized under one command. The existing setup of small, virtually independent cells would be subsumed under the single command, and no one would operate on their own, as has been the trend since al-Qaeda lost their base in Afghanistan following the ouster of the Taliban in late 2001, and the intense pressure of the US-led "war on terror", which saw many communication and financial links severed.

The cells would fall under single commands in Iraq and Afghanistan, from where they would be directed for external operations, such as launching attacks on the US.

If al-Qaeda prevails over its internal conflicts and adopts the strategy as outlined above, it would be a major turning point not only for the organization, but for the whole of the Muslim world and beyond.

Dawa (Islamic message), hijra (evolution from an enemy state into an Islamic state) and jihad are the three stages based on the life of the Prophet Mohammed to bring about revolution in society.

In essence, al-Qaeda, which means means "the base" in Arabic, is in search of a physical base, like the mujahideen had during the Soviet resistance period in Afghanistan in the 1980s, when they grabbed all rural Afghanistan, or like the one al-Qaeda had two years ago when it moved into the Shawal and Shakai areas near South and North Waziristan on the Pakistan-Afghanistan border, before being driven out by combined US and Pakistan efforts.

Once new bases are found - al-Qaeda confidently believes this will be done in Iraq and Afghanistan - the process of dawa, hijra and jihad will begin, and many presently peripheral Islamic groups across the world will pour into these two countries for a reinvigorated campaign against US forces.

Syed Saleem Shahzad, Bureau Chief, Pakistan Asia Times Online. He can be reached at saleem_shahzad2002@yahoo.com

(Copyright 2005 Asia Times Online Ltd. All rights reserved. Please contact us for information on sales, syndication and republishing .)

http://www.atimes.com/atimes/Middle_East/GK04Ak04.html
COMMENTARY
CIA's 'black sites' breed more evil
By Ehsan Ahrari

"The US has exclusive facilities across the world to interrogate militants ... al-Tamara detention center, eight kilometers out of Rabat in Morocco, houses dozens of people arrested in Pakistan, while others are kept in Egypt, Thailand, Saudi Arabia and Qatar." - Asia Times Online, The legacy of Nek Mohammed, July 20, 2004

In an era when the US media are regularly accused of increasingly acting as the "lapdog" of the Bush administration, the Washington Post has published a very sensitive report about the Central Intelligence Agency's (CIA) secret dungeons - generally referred to inside that organization as "black sites" - where some of the most important al-Qaeda captives are being held.

It has named Thailand, Afghanistan, "several democracies in



eastern Europe" (Secretary of Defense Donald Rumsfeld's "new Europe"), and, of course, Guantanamo Bay, as places where captives have been held in the aftermath of the September 11, 2001 attacks on the United States.

This report underscores one of the classic paradoxes that the Bush administration is currently facing in its desperate attempt to win the global "war on terror".

If one of the crucial aspects of winning this war is to win the hearts and minds of Muslims all over the world (the current uphill challenge of Karen Hughes, undersecretary of public diplomacy), then how will the United States explain its Soviet-style gulags? At the same time, as the "war on terror" continues to go badly both in Iraq and Afghanistan, how is it possible for the United States to abandon imprisoning al-Qaeda members who are sworn to cause harm to the United States and its citizens? There are no simple answers to these questions.

What is certain at this point is that the Bush administration's current policy of imprisoning these alleged terrorists (and they are alleged terrorists because they haven't been granted their day in the court) and, indeed, not even admitting that they exist, is doing grave harm to America's image, not just in the world of Islam, but all around the globe.

According to preliminary reports about these prisoners, there are about 100 (actual numbers may never be known and, more often than not, they are likely underestimated) being held under a two-tiered system. About 30, the first tier, are in the most-dangerous category and are said to be incarcerated in Thailand and Guantanamo Bay in Cuba.

They "exist in complete isolation from the outside world. Kept in the dark, sometimes in underground cells, they have no recognized legal rights and no one outside the CIA is allowed to talk with or even see them, or otherwise verify their well-being". The others, about 70 prisoners in the "second tier", and are scattered in unnamed countries in eastern Europe.

Here are some other disconcerting aspects of the Washington Post report:


"The CIA and the White House, citing national security concerns and the value of the program, have dissuaded Congress from demanding that the agency answer questions in open testimony about the conditions under which captives are held. Virtually nothing is known about who is kept in the facilities, what interrogation methods are employed with them, or how decisions are made about whether they should be detained or for how long."

"While the Defense Department has produced volumes of public reports and testimony about its detention practices and rules after the abuse scandals at Iraq's Abu Ghraib prison and at Guantanamo Bay, the CIA has not even acknowledged the existence of its black sites. To do so, say officials familiar with the program, could open the US government to legal challenges, particularly in foreign courts, and increase the risk of political condemnation at home and abroad."

"The revelations of widespread prisoner abuse in Afghanistan and Iraq by the US military - which operates under published rules and transparent oversight of Congress - have increased concern among lawmakers, foreign governments and human rights groups about the opaque CIA system. Those concerns escalated last month, when Vice President Cheney and CIA Director Porter J Goss asked Congress to exempt CIA employees from legislation already endorsed by 90 senators that would bar cruel and degrading treatment of any prisoner in US custody."

It is understandable that, in the immediate aftermath of the September 11 attacks, those "black sites" were hurriedly established. What is unfathomable is why they were left intact for the four years since then. A partial understanding may be developed by taking a broad overview of what transpired in this so-called "war on terror".

The Bush administration never finished the task of eradicating al-Qaeda in 2001. Its decision to jump to Iraq before the job of fighting terrorism was done in Afghanistan left no breathing spell to revisit the proposition of doing away with those secret dungeons. When the Iraqi insurgency became deadly, the necessity of gaining access to crucial and timely intelligence became the chief driving force. During this time, the hard-nosed perspectives of Cheney and Rumsfeld to break the back of the Iraqi insurgency remained as the overall justification to maintain those secret facilities.

According to the Washington Post, there is now a debate taking place within the CIA "about the legality, morality and practicality of holding even unrepentant terrorists in such isolation and secrecy, perhaps for the duration of their lives". Some former senior CIA insiders reported there never was a grand strategy about dealing with those secret prisons. "Everything was very reactive. That's how you get to a situation where you pick people up, send them into a netherworld and don't say, 'What are we going to do with them afterwards'?"

The most nagging question about this whole issue is why any foreign government agreed to violate the Geneva Convention against torture. Thailand, one of the countries named in the Washington Post report, has already vehemently denied any participation, but few even in East Asia believe the Thai government.

To be fair to Afghan President Hamid Karzai, he publicly asked to take charge of Afghan prisoners in US custody during his last visit to Washington. However, President George W Bush flatly denied his request. In Egypt and Jordan, torture had been a sine qua non of their brutal regimes. These newly converted democracies were not given a good lesson in democracy by the United States when it asked them to host those dungeons.

How will this episode play in the Bush administration's campaign to "win the hearts and minds of Muslims"? It seems that no one in Washington is paying any attention to linkages between such policies and the US image in the Muslim world. How much longer should the good name of the United States be soiled before someone in Washington has the guts to say "enough"! It seems that the rhetoric of fear has taken over the good judgment of almost all public officials. US legislators are primarily driven by fear of being labeled by the right wing as "going soft" on terrorism and then not getting reelected.

Fighting terrorism, with no regard to morality or humanity, tends to blur the distinction between those who blatantly perpetrate nefarious acts of terrorism and those who claim to fight terrorism. If that distinction is purposely blurred by those whose job it is to promote international law and human rights, then the question is, who will uphold the universal principles of justice and humanity?

The Muslim world looks at the entire effort to win their hearts and minds as nothing short of the newest scam from Washington. They know the real battle about winning terrorism will be fought, not in the trenches of Afghanistan and the dark alleys of Iraq, but through such mundane chores as promotion of civil societies inside their polities and establishing schools that would prepare young Muslims to tackle the complicated problems of a highly globalized world, to name a few.

Muslim youngsters want to declare jihad, not against some imaginary "infidel" who lives in New York or London, but against obscurantism, illiteracy and economic backwardness inside their own borders. Their biggest enemy is the poverty and economic underdevelopment that has been keeping anachronistic, brutal and inept autocratic regimes in power. The United States has to refocus its attention from counterterrorism to anti-terrorism by developing multifaceted policies. In the absence of such policies, it is only a matter of time before an even nastier, meaner and more brutal generation of terrorists takes over the religious discourse as well as the street in Muslim countries.

There appears to be a serious disconnect between what the United States should do to fight and win the global "war on terror" and what it is currently doing.

The greatest threat to the United States does not come from the "first tier" detainees of those black dungeons or even from Abu Musab al-Zarqawi, often described as an Osama bin Laden associate. Rather, it is the young generation that is coming up, armed with half-baked notions of what jihad is. That young generation has no luxury of going to decent schools, playing with high-tech toys or expecting surprise gifts from Santa Claus in December. That generation is growing up in the condemned cold shacks of Somalia, the earthquake-stricken gaping holes in Pakistan-administered Kashmir or even in the Pankisi Gorge of Georgia, being taught to hate the US and the West for everything that they don't have.

Imagine the agony and anger of the youth in Aceh, Indonesia, or in Pakistan-administered Kashmir, where 75,000 people are reported to have perished in last month's earthquake. That is where the best efforts and precious capital of the civilized world must be invested to improve the lot of Muslims. Much energy is needed to be spent in the dilapidated environs of the Ferghana Valley in Central Asia. That is where the next battle of the "war on terror" will be fought. How many more black sites will - or can - the United States build to incarcerate the next generation?

Ehsan Ahrari is an independent strategic analyst based in Alexandria, VA, US. His columns appear regularly in Asia Times Online. He is also a regular contributor to the Global Beat Syndicate. His website: www.ehsanahrari.com.

(Copyright 2005 Asia Times Online Ltd. All rights reserved. Please contact us for information on sales, syndication and republishing.)

http://www.atimes.com/atimes/Middle_East/GK04Ak02.html

Iran's diplomatic coup
By Neda Bolourchi

In a dramatic move, Iran's new neo-conservative government on Wednesday announced that the terms of about 40 diplomats and ambassadors on missions to foreign countries would expire by the end of the current Iranian year (March 20, 2006).

Attempting to temper the predictable onslaught of speculation the massive recall would incite, Foreign Minister Manouchehr Mottaki said: "Some of the ambassadors have reached the age of retirement and have applied for it. New diplomats should replace them."

As he described the drastic changes affecting nearly half of the
Islamic republic's foreign posts, Motakki insisted in characterizing the changes as normal.

With London, Paris, Berlin, Rome, Dehli, Baghdad and the UN missions in New York and Geneva said to be listed, critics noted that President Mahmud Ahmadinejad intended to remove key negotiators and diplomats who had been involved in months of delicate mediation between the Islamic republic and Europe over Tehran's nuclear program.

Thus, Mottaki's assurances failed to silence critics. Instead, commentators insist that the dismissals signal the Ahmadinejad administration's intolerance for moderates and those closely identified with the reformist policies of former presidents Mohammed Khatami and Hashemi Rafsanjani.

Last week, Ahmadinejad caused an international storm by saying Israel should be "wiped off the map".

Observers cite the Abadgaran coalition's censures of Khatami for agreeing to freeze nuclear activities during previous negotiations. The challenge of second-generation revolutionaries to the clerical supremacists is spearheaded by a right-wing coalition known as the Abadgaran Iran-e-Islami (Developers of Islamic Iran). Although it is widely assumed that Abadgaran is a "neo-conservative" coalition with strong links to the establishment, the grouping is in fact made up mostly of second-generation revolutionaries critical of traditional conservatives who strive to reconcile the values of the Islamic revolution with Iran's current realities.

Other observers note the almost immediate replacement of nuclear negotiator Hasan Rohani with conservative Ali Larajani months ago (following Ahmadinejad's surprise presidential election victory in June) as a key indicator that the wave of replacements is not normal but is a policy change.

More importantly, however, seems to be that a number of ambassadors are not near completing their tenures. For instance, London's relatively popular Muhammad Hossein Adeli will be completing the first of two years of deployment come March. Similarly, Mohmmad Ghasem Ali is just six months into his posting in Malaysia.

Therefore, neither man appears to be of retirement age come March 2006. While Mottaki informed the majlis (parliament) of the removals on Wednesday, news of the recalls had been known to some for more than a month.

Such a move supports reports that the new executive branch is not communicating with its traditional allies in the now conservative-dominated legislative branch (majlis). As a result, the majlis has caused problems for Ahmadinejad already by opposing four of his proposed cabinet ministers.

With Mottaki reinstating Mohammad Zavad Zarif, ambassador to the United Nations in New York, within 24 hours of the public statement of his dismissal, a similar situation may occur over the postings at other missions.

Other conflicting signals are emanating from Tehran. In the past several days, Iranian officials were said to have granted UN inspectors access to a military site. Simultaneously, word spread that Tehran had also decided to begin processing a new batch of uranium at its Isfahan plant next week. The Islamic republic froze all work there last year as a show of good faith under a deal with France, Britain and Germany - the EU-3. On Ahmadinejad's inauguration, Tehran removed International Atomic Energy Agency (IAEA) seals in August, which prompted the EU-3 to suspend talks. Within days, the IAEA will meet to discuss sending Iran to the UN Security Council for possible sanctions.

Also adding to the conflicting signals coming out of Iran are the expanded powers of the Expediency Council. Under new rules, the council has supervisory power over the executive, legislative and judiciary powers, but can also originate top-down decision-making to shape macro and micro policies.

In addition many believe that the nuclear dossier has moved from the office of the president to that of Rafsanjani, the chairman of the Expediency Council.

In an October 27 report from Aftab-i Yazd, Rafsanjani denied controlling the nuclear dossier. "This is not true and nothing has been said about this." Acknowledging that support for the nuclear program enjoyed solid and wide support, Rafsanjani continued, "There is no need for my presence there ... this is a collective matter and does not involve negotiations alone. The collective is behind the case."

While Rafsanjani's statement may likely be the typical obfuscation of an Iranian official, Ahmadinejad continues to take the offensive to strengthen his handling of governmental affairs.

As of now, the Islamic republic's news regarding its diplomatic corps is the biggest purge since the 1979 revolution. With Ahmadinejad having arguably succeeded with his first revolution in June, just by being elected, the impending changes and confusion signal an attempt for another.

(Copyright 2005 Asia Times Online Ltd. All rights reserved. Please contact us for information on sales, syndication and republishing.)

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COMMENTARY
Self-made threat to US oil and security
By Jephraim P Gundzik

The US-led occupation of Iraq, which costs about $6 billion per month, involves nearly one-half of America's total active-duty military personnel and is the primary attention of the US Department of Defense. President George W Bush and the White House produce more sound bites on what's occurring in Iraq than any other foreign country.

In addition to the obvious massive commitment of money, personnel and executive and cabinet-level attention, the Bush administration has consistently pointed to the occupation of Iraq as the centerpiece in the US "war on terrorism". Bush reiterated this in a speech to the National Endowment for Democracy in early October. Bush stated, "We must recognize Iraq as the central front in our 'war on terror'."

Although reputed by US and British intelligence to have been flush with weapons of mass destruction, no such weapons have ever been found in Iraq. No terrorists existed in Iraq prior to the US-led invasion and occupation of the country. Iraqi insurgents, or terrorists using Washington's nomenclature, are purely a product of Iraq's occupation by foreign forces.

Without weapons of mass destruction, Washington has tried to sell the invasion and occupation of Iraq as a profoundly humanitarian gesture designed to rid Iraqis and the world of the despotic Saddam Hussein. But with anywhere between 30,000 and 100,000 Iraqi civilian deaths and economic catastrophe associated with US military action in the country since 2002, it's not difficult to argue that Iraq and Iraqis were far better off with Saddam.

Adding together the costs associated with the US-led invasion and occupation of Iraq combined with the untenable grounds used to initially justify this action, one must conclude that another motive for US military operations in Iraq existed. The one resource that Iraq possesses, and the Bush administration wants, is oil.

Though oil production remains stunted by sabotage, Iraq holds 115 billion barrels of crude oil reserves - the third largest oil reserves in the world. More importantly, Iraqi oil exploration efforts to date have only covered one-tenth of the country. Independent analysts estimate that undiscovered reserves could add between 45 billion and 100 billion barrels of oil to Iraq's already weighty reserves.

While evidence is thin supporting the notion that US military action against Iraq was economically motivated, it is probable that oil security played some role in the final decision to invade Iraq. Regardless of its pre-war role, the US-led occupation of Iraq has made oil supply and oil price security a very important issue not only for the US but for Iran, Venezuela, Russia and China as well.

Strengthening terrorists
Rather than vanquishing terrorism, the war in Iraq has become a breeding ground for terrorists. Iraq's most prominent terrorist, Abu Musab al-Zarqawi, was of slight consequence before the war, while al-Qaeda in Iraq did not even exist. Zarqawi and al-Qaeda in Iraq, which is composed largely of foreign jihadis, are behind many of the bombings, kidnappings and assassinations that have occurred in Iraq since the 2002 invasion.

According to reports issued by the US National Intelligence Council and the Central Intelligence Agency in January and June, respectively, Iraq's foreign jihadis pose an enormous future security threat to the US and its allies. Both reports highlighted the extensive urban guerilla warfare training that these jihadis are benefiting from in Iraq.

These reports also pointed out that the number of jihadis that have been attracted to Iraq since the US-led invasion was significantly higher than the number of jihadis that fought in Afghanistan against Russia. The war in Afghanistan is known to have trained thousands of foreign jihadis, including Osama bin Laden and Zarqawi. Jihadis' training in Afghanistan was limited to rural combat. By comparison, the urban-combat training that jihadis are receiving in Iraq is much more easily applied to terrorist action in other countries.

In addition to Zarqawi and his organization, the war in Iraq has also created an army of domestic insurgents or terrorists. Attacks on US-led forces by domestic insurgents were led by Saddam loyalists or Ba'athists in the initial months of the US occupation. In the past 12 months, Sunni insurgents, who seemed to have joined forces with the Ba'athists, have also been responsible for many bombings as well as attacks on US-led military forces. More recently, Sunni insurgents have stepped up attacks on Iraq's Shi'ites and Kurds, fueling a civil war.

Estimates of the size of insurgent forces in Iraq, including foreign jihadis aligned with Zarqawi, range from 30,000 by US intelligence sources to 200,000 by Iraqi intelligence sources. Undoubtedly, the majority of these forces are composed of Sunni and Ba'athist insurgents. Unlike the foreign jihadis, these insurgents are bent on retaking control of Iraq's government. It is in their interest to intensify the country's civil war in order to further destabilize the US-supported regime.

The progression of the insurgency in Iraq toward civil war has already allowed foreign jihadis to leave Iraq in order to undertake terrorist actions in other countries. The deeper Iraq slides into civil war the greater the exodus of foreign jihadis will be. As these jihadis continue to spread around the region and around the world terrorist attacks will become more frequent and deadly.

According to the US State Department's most recent report on global terrorism, issued in April, the number of terrorist attacks tripled in 2004 from 2003. The number of terrorist attacks in Iraq increased nine-fold in the same period. While new guidelines now prevent the State Department from publishing its tally on terrorism, these statistics were widely disseminated in the US Congress. In the future such statistics are not expected to be revealed to either the public or the Congress.

Elusive Iraqi oil
The ability of the US to exploit Iraqi oil reserves is dependent on the creation of pro-US government in Iraq. Even more important to this exploitation is the stabilization of Iraq. Though Iraq now has a pro-US government, its capacity for governing the country is extremely limited as evidenced by the security vacuum despite the presence of nearly 160,000 US troops.

The insurgency in Iraq has steadily grown in the past two years. Instead of slowing the insurgency, as hoped by the US Department of Defense and the White House, political developments in Iraq, such as the country's elections and constitutional referendums, have fueled the insurgency and hastened the country's slide into civil war.

With insurgents uninterested in participating in Iraq's political process and given the vast amount of armaments in the country, it is extremely improbable that Iraq's insurgency will fizzle. It is more likely to escalate further in the months ahead as many US allies, including Britain, begin to withdraw troops from Iraq. The inevitable withdrawal of US troops will further escalate the insurgency.

Iraq's own military is woefully unprepared to assume security responsibilities from US forces. In addition to weak training, Iraq's military has been widely infiltrated by insurgents making it all but impossible to counter the insurgency domestically. The insurgency has already prevented any meaningful rebuilding of infrastructure damaged during the initial US-led invasion.

Most of the country remains subject to daily 10-hour to 14-hour power blackouts, while access to clean water has declined. In addition to running short of money for infrastructure rebuilding due to the escalation of Iraq's insurgency, the lack of security in the country has also scuppered many military and civilian projects. Chaotic conditions in Iraq will prevent the US from exploiting the country's oil reserves for many years at best.

Insecure US oil supply
In addition to sowing chaotic conditions in Iraq, the unilateral nature of the US-led invasion and occupation, which came without a UN mandate, has proven extremely problematic for US foreign relations. Many countries have become highly suspicious of the Bush administration and its military doctrine of preemptive first strike, which formed the foundation for US military action in Iraq.

In essence, the doctrine of preemptive first strike empowers the United States president to order a unilateral attack on any country deemed to pose a threat to US national security. Iraq posed such a threat due to its now disproved weapons of mass destruction stocks and ties to international terrorist organizations. Two other countries that pose a similar threat to US national security are Iran and Venezuela - both of which also have very large oil reserves.

Iran is being painted by the US and its allies as a threat to global security. The country's yet unproven military nuclear program and reputed support for Palestinian and Iraqi insurgents makes a strong case, in the eyes of Washington, for US military action against Iran. As in the lead up to the war in Iraq, the Bush administration is giving Iran very little diplomatic leeway to disprove US allegations against it.

Venezuela is seen by Washington as a more immediate threat to US national security. The Bush administration claims that the Hugo Chavez government is supporting the insurgency in Colombia and has played an integral role in fomenting social and political instability in Bolivia and Ecuador. Chavez's highly publicized military arms purchases, ranging from light arms to attack aircraft and submarines, have escalated Venezuela's threat to US national security.

Though US military action against Iran and Venezuela may be improbable, the risk of such action has increased substantially from the perspective of Tehran and Caracas. This has compelled Iran and Venezuela to strengthen both their diplomatic and commercial relations with each other. Both countries have also built strong diplomatic and commercial relations with Russia.

Though Russia does not pose a direct threat to US national security, Moscow has a very dim view of Washington's preemptive first-strike doctrine. Russia did not support US military action in Iraq and backs Iran's right to master the nuclear fuel cycle in order to produce civilian nuclear power. Russia is also Iran's primary military-equipment supplier.

Russia also dominates Venezuela's rapidly growing military trade. Almost all of Venezuela's new military equipment is being supplied by Russia. Russia is becoming a significant investor in Venezuela's natural gas sector. In addition to commercial ties, diplomatic ties between Venezuela and Russia are close, as evidenced by Chavez's meetings with Russia's President Vladimir Putin in Moscow in 2001 and 2004.

The Iran-Venezuela-Russia alliance poses a significant threat to US economic security. Combined, these three countries account for 30% of global oil exports. By comparison, the Organization of Petroleum Exporting Countries, of which both Iran and Venezuela are members, accounts for about 50 % of global oil exports. In addition to substantial oil exports, oil production in all three countries is now government controlled. While this has always been the case in Iran, this change has only recently occurred in both Russia and Venezuela.

By colluding with each other over oil production and exports, these three countries can dictate international oil prices. By extension, these three countries can also dictate inflation and economic growth rates in the world's largest oil-consuming countries, which are enormously dependent on oil imports. While relations between the Iran-Venezuela-Russia alliance and the US, the world's largest oil importer, are acrimonious to say the least, this is not the case between this cartel and China - the world's second-largest oil importer.

China has become a major investor in oil and natural gas production in all three countries. All four countries are dependent on strong economic growth for ensuring political and social stability. Iran, Venezuela and Russia need high oil prices to ensure continued strong economic growth, while China needs guaranteed oil supplies to prevent an economic slowdown. The mutually supportive political, social and economic relationship between these four countries provides a strong foundation for international oil prices.

National security policy without security
Washington's national security policy is making Americans less secure. Personal security is being undermined by the rising threat of terrorist strikes against US interests at home and abroad. The risk of terrorist attacks against the US is increasing as a result of US military action in Iraq and the shift in the country's insurgency toward civil war. Escalating civil war in Iraq, and a hasty US exit from the country, will disengage foreign jihadis from Iraq, dispersing them around the world.

As with any threat, perception is the key to the growing threat to Americans' personal security arising from terrorism. It will take a spectacular terrorist attack to change the perception of Americans from weak awareness of a terrorist threat to outright concern for personal safety. Such is not the case for the threat to Americans' economic security from rising international oil prices.

In the past two years, the price Americans pay for gas at the pump has doubled. Other energy prices, such as those for electricity and heat, have mirrored the increase in gasoline prices. This winter energy prices are very likely to rise further as energy demand has remained strong in the face of declining oil and natural gas supplies.

The resultant upward push in US inflation is of major concern to the US Federal Reserve, which will continue pushing official interest rates higher in 2006. Rising inflation and interest rates will inspire a sharp slowdown in US economic growth over the next several quarters. The growing insecurity of Americans will have a major impact on US mid-term elections next year.

Jephraim P Gundzik is president of Condor Advisers, Inc. Condor Advisers provides emerging markets investment risk analysis to individuals and institutions globally. Please visit for further information.

(Copyright 2005 Asia Times Online Ltd. All rights reserved. Please contact us for information on sales, syndication and republishing .)

THE ROVING EYE
Thaksin meets the press - in court
By Pepe Escobar

BANGKOK - Once upon a time, Thailand was known to have a free and open press. Not anymore. In the 2005 Worldwide Press Freedom Index, released last month by Paris-based Reporters Without Borders and ranking 167 countries, Thailand shows up at a far from flattering 107th place, behind post-Khmer Rouge Cambodia and post-Suharto Indonesia.

As far as the Southeast Asian Press Alliance (SEAPA) is concerned, the issue is clear-cut. "More than anything, or anybody else, Prime Minister Thaksin Shinawatra should take the blame for this dismaying portrayal of Thailand as a country where the press is suddenly under a dark cloud," says SEAPA executive director Roby Alampay. Whenever billionaire tycoon



Thaksin, his government, or his family's and friends' companies don't like what the Thai press has to say about them, they tend to sue. Big time.

In early 2005, Thaksin solemnly promised Thai voters that he would support press freedom. Now, at least in Bangkok, there's a perception that his concept of press freedom takes a cue from the former prime minister and resident neo-Confucius of Singapore, the eminent Lee Kwan Yew, who in the mid-1990s successfully sued the International Herald Tribune and Dow Jones, publisher of the late Far Eastern Economic Review. There's a difference though. Lee Kwan Yew sued foreigners who allegedly slandered him. Thaksin and his government go after compatriots.

'Distorting the facts'
The running talk of the town in Bangkok is the legal battle pitting Thaksin against Sondhi Limthongkul, founder of Manager Media Group, one of the most influential media groups in Thailand. Asia Times Online is an affiliated publication.

On September 30, Thaksin filed a lawsuit, in both criminal and civil courts, against Sondhi, his co-host Sarocha Pornudomsak and Thaiday Dot Com, a sister company of Manager Media Group and producer of the no-nonsense Thailand This Week political talk show, seeking 500 million baht (US$12 million) for defamation. The reason: alleged comments made on the talk show on September 9 by both Sondhi and Sarocha questioning the prime minister's allegiance to revered King Bhumibol Adulyadej.

The talk show - which used to air on Thailand's Channel 9, a property of the state-controlled Mass Communication Organization of Thailand (MCOT) - was abruptly banned on September 15, only a few days after the contentious edition. MCOT's reason: "one-sided" and "unfair" attacks on the prime minister and insinuations regarding his relationship with the King.

On October 11, Thaksin again filed a lawsuit in both criminal and civil courts against Manager Media Group, publisher of the Manager Daily newspaper, and two of its executives, seeking an additional 500 million baht for defamation. The reason: severe criticism of the government in a public sermon by respected, senior Buddhist monk Luangta Maha Bua published in the newspaper on September 27.

According to Thaksin's chief lawyer, Thana Benjathikul, claiming a total of $24 million in damages makes sense because of Thaksin's "very high social status as the prime minister". He says that according to Thai law, the maximum amount, established a long time ago, used to be a paltry 5 million baht (less than US$125,000). So the $24 million is a case of adjusting to inflation. "This is the amount we are requesting, but it's up to the court to establish how much the defendant will have to pay." As he sees it, the lawsuit against Sondhi, Sarocha and Thaiday Dot Com is to counter "malicious" attacks against Thaksin, and the lawsuit against Manager Media Group to counter attacks against Thaksin's government. The civil lawsuit against Sondhi is to protect the prime minister's reputation.

Thana denies this legal overdrive has anything to do with gagging the press. "Newspapers here can criticize everything. You may have an opinion, but you cannot attack anybody with no proof." He adds that "if the media distorts facts in their reports, the prime minister is entitled to use his rights as a citizen to sue".

The assertion that the Thai media "distorts facts" warrants investigation. As Thana puts it, Thaksin's legal action is essentially against a newspaper headline chosen by Manager Daily when it published the sermon of Luangta Maha Bua. Thaksin's lawsuit accuses Manager Media Group and executives Saowalak Thiranujanyong and Khunthong Lorserivanich of some sort of conspiracy to defame the prime minister. The headline is cited as the key evidence.

Thana also sounds like an executive editor when he says that the newspaper should have edited what the prime minister considers "slanderous" comments. So according to Thaksin and his lawyer, the newspaper defamed him because it printed the sermon in its entirety ("other newspapers published only selected passages"), with no editing, but with a dubious headline ("they mixed their own opinion with the sermon"). Thana says he will prove in court that the headline was false.

Thaksin's lawyer also confirms that Luangta Maha Bua will not be sued alongside Sondhi, essentially because in Thai Buddhist culture it is "inappropriate" to sue a revered holy man with hundreds of thousands, perhaps millions of followers nationwide: "He's very well known. Mr Thaksin also used to like him."

According to Sombat Wongkamhaeng, secretary general of the Law Society of Thailand, anyone in Thailand has the right to pick and choose anyone else to be sued. Thana for his part could not have been more explicit. "If he were not a monk, we could have taken legal action against him."

But legal action against him is exactly what Luangta Maha Bua wants.

Sue me, I can take it
Even revered senior monks in Buddhist Thailand are not immune to lawsuits. Luangta Maha Bua, 92, is the head of Wat Pha Ban Tad, a temple in the northeastern Thai province of Udon Thani. He is perceived, even in worldly Bangkok, as controversial, outspoken and prone to swearing. Many elderly, traditionalist Thais don't appreciate his activism, insisting that politics is not for monks.

Luangta Maha Bua does not shy away from performing an important political role. During the severe 1997 Thai financial crisis, he successfully mobilized Thais in the kingdom and abroad to alleviate the economic hardship by donating gold and US dollars to the Bank of Thailand. He also helped Thaksin to fight for his political life when the prime minister, then in his first term in office, had to prove that he did not try to conceal his billions from public scrutiny.

The lawsuit contends that publishing "harsh" and "untrue" statements is not an "act of good faith". Thana insists that "even if the sermon was real, a newspaper must be careful not to print falsehood that can cause damage to another person." He has defended the lawsuit on the ground that "it's an exercise of an individual's right to protect his reputation and privacy. The newspaper [Manager Daily] did not criticize the prime minister fairly as a public official, but rather took him to task personally, using harsh words, which was damaging to him."

The fact that Luangta Maha Bua - who actually pronounced the "falsehood" and the "harsh words" - is not being sued does not mean that the government has let him off the hook. On October 13, while Thaksin was on state business in Europe, Deputy Prime Minister Wisanu Krea-ngam - allegedly a legal expert - went on the offensive, saying that Luangta Maha Bua had defamed the prime minister. "The sermon contained many strong words and was driven by hatred. We've also secured a hard copy of the sermon that was published on the Internet." Wisanu added, "By the way, there are still many good monks out there."

Luangta Maha Bua may not make the "good monk" list because he has publicly challenged Thaksin to name him as a co-defendant in the lawsuit. "Why didn't the premier sue me if my sermon had caused damage?" he asks. After confirming that Manager Daily published his exact words, the senior monk emphasized that he is "ready to go to jail ... The truth is that I've heard complaints from many Thais from all over the country that this government is very politically ambitious. This will hurt all the country's important institutions in the long run."

As this green curry opera developed, the "multimillion baht question" - in the words of the local English-language daily, The Nation - of why Thaksin chose not to sue the monk who attacked him in the first place, kept coming back.

Finally, on October 16, the prime minister himself volunteered the reason: "He had been kind to me, so I'm going to be kind to him." Civil rights lawyer and constitutional expert Thongbai Thongpao says, "The prime minister has the right to sue anyone he wants. No one can force the prime minister to sue anybody. This does not depend on Luangta Maha Bua's wishes."

But the press is not convinced. In an editorial, The Nation argued that "the decision to avoid suing Luangta Maha Bua may, ironically, end up doing more damage to the prime minister's reputation than the monk's original comments allegedly did".

Thai journalists comment that Luangta Maha Bua's hundreds of thousands of followers may be inclined to consider Thaksin's legal moves as "unwise" - something that in an exceedingly polite society such as Thailand, unlike in the West, bears a catastrophic connotation.

Especially after the senior monk said that "the intention [of his sermon] was like a little scolding [from a teacher; he still considers Thaksin one of his disciples]. It was purely a teaching for the benefit of peace and order for our nation, religion and monarchy." Luangta Maha Bua emphasized that in his sermon he used the figure of Devadatta, the Buddha's enemy, "as a metaphor". One is entitled to conclude that Sondhi, Sarocha and Thaiday.com are being sued because of a metaphor.

Patriarchal matters
The lawsuit against Sondhi, Sarocha and Thaiday.com also charges that during the September 9 TV show the hosts implied that Thaksin interfered with the appointment of a group of senior monks tasked to select a caretaker Buddhist Supreme Patriarch. In Thailand, this highly sensitive matter is a prerogative of the King.

The current Supreme Patriarch, Somdet Phra Yanasangvara, 92, had not performed any ceremonies in public for months because of health problems. So "the government appointed a panel of senior monks to select an acting Patriarch", recalls Paisal Sricharatchanya, publisher and editor-in-chief of ThaiDay, an English-language daily distributed in Thailand along with the International Herald Tribune. A top Thai journalist, he has spent many years with the Bangkok Post and the Far Eastern Economic Review.

Paisal says that while the Supreme Patriarch was "still alive, functioning and his health improving", the government appointed an acting Patriarch allegedly on the grounds that the ailing elder monk might be exploited by unscrupulous souls.

According to the criminal lawsuit, Sondhi and Sarocha "falsely accused the plaintiff beyond the boundary of media freedom" as far as the Supreme Patriarch controversy was concerned. That's not how Sarocha tells it. "Sondhi's brother is a doctor, part of the medical panel which was reviewing the Supreme Patriarch's health. So Sondhi was stating a fact. He had access to the schedule proving that the Supreme Patriarch was fulfilling his duties."

Thana sees the issue differently: "There are not two Supreme Patriarchs in Thailand. It is against the law. One of them is only temporary. And it was a committee that appointed him, not the prime minister." He says both he and Thaksin watched the program at the time, and the video will be produced in court as evidence for the prosecution.

As far as the controversy around Luangta Maha Bua is concerned, Sondhi's lawyer, Suwat Apaipakdi, quoting what is common knowledge in Thai media circles, says that "every newspaper reproduced his comments. Why did Thaksin not sue him? He chose to sue only the Manager Media Group because it's linked to Khun [Mr] Sondhi. This is part of a personal conflict between them." As a lawyer, Suwat is adamant. "The two lawsuits have no merit." Thongbai, the constitutional expert, disagrees. He thinks they do have merit, "and do not constitute an attack on freedom of the press". Thana for his part says both accusations are "very easy" to prove.

How to sue a parable
Manager Online, says Paisal, is the most popular website and forum in Thailand. One of its readers emailed a parable called "Lost Sheep" which was then read by Sondhi on his talk show, with no comments, as Sarocha recalls it. The identity of the reader has not been revealed.

Suwat, Sondhi's lawyer, is keen to point out that "the story does not refer to the prime minister. Under Thai criminal law, if you tell a story, you are not guilty." He adds that "if Mr Thaksin thinks he is the Big Brother in the family portrayed in the story, he obviously has to think that the story is about him." Thongbai disagrees. He says that as the story was made public and read on the air, the prosecution will invoke article 328 in the criminal court to prove that the story was critical of the prime minister as a public figure.

Thai journalists, at least at the English-language dailies, The Nation, Bangkok Post and ThaiDay, overwhelmingly agree that the fact that Thaksin also chose not to sue state-owned MCOT, the owner of Channel 9, adds to the perception of a politically-motivated lawsuit. Suwat notes, "They did not sue Channel 9 because it is a government company."

Suwat shows the list of witnesses to be called by the prosecution in Thaksin's lawsuit. Number 1 is the prime minister himself. Numbers 6 and 7 are two MCOT executives sued by Sondhi, and number 10 is the general director of MCOT. "That's the whole story of this case," says the affable lawyer. "Thaksin ordered MCOT to close down the TV program. And when Khun Sondhi sued three MCOT executives, Thaksin sued back. The cases are directly linked."

The chronology is clear. The talk show was cancelled by MCOT on September 15. On September 26, Sondhi sued three MCOT executives for canceling the program, demanding a symbolic 1 baht (2 1/2 US cents) in damages. Four days later, Thaksin slapped Sondhi, co-host Sarocha and Thaiday Dot Com with the $12 million lawsuit. Suwat says that "Khun Sondhi wanted to show what is wrong and what is right. He doesn't want any money." Thongbai, for his part, says he does not understand why Sondhi sued for only 1 baht in damages. At the same time, "I cannot say whether the prime minister is trying to bankrupt anyone. Let justice decide".

Thana does not like the 1 baht lawsuit one bit. "The court is not a joke. Mr Sondhi just wanted to get people's attention." He points out that MCOT and Thaiday Dot Com had signed a written contract stipulating that no heavy criticism was allowed on the program. So MCOT identified Sondhi's comments as a breach of contract and cancelled the show. "It's very difficult to control a live program," he adds.

Under the 1997 Thai constitution which, much more than its predecessors, sternly protects freedom of speech, this is the first time that a Thai prime minister has sued the media for defamation. Suwat takes it further: "This is the first time that a prime minister has sued a newspaperman in the history of democracy in Thailand."

Paisal, echoing what is standard conversation fare among Bangkok's smart set, comments that "most people in Bangkok now criticize Thaksin. His urban base among the middle classes is eroding. They perceive the government as corrupt, and the prime minister as a member of a greedy family, too dictatorial, hot tempered and arrogant." But Paisal, who has fought a few lawsuits himself, is careful to add that "the countryside does not care about lawsuits. What they care about is money."

SEAPA for its part warns about "a practice of self-censorship among the [Thai] media amid the use of state emergency power", as well as the fact that Thaksin's government "is behind the commercial bid to take over independent newspapers". This is a direct reference to hostile takeover bids by Thai entertainment giant GMM Grammy Group against the media groups that publish the Thai-language daily Matichon and the English-language daily Bangkok Post. GMM Grammy Group chairman Paiboon Damrongchaitham is extremely close to Thaksin, and has made it clear on the record that GMM would interfere with the management of both newspapers.

The sue-till-they-drop syndrome
It's not only Sondhi and the Manager Media Group. The Thai press is fighting nothing less than a lawsuit tsunami.

The English-language daily, Bangkok Post, is fighting a 1 billion baht defamation lawsuit by the Airports Authority of Thailand over a controversial report about cracks in a runway at the new, still-under-construction, way-behind-schedule Suvarnabhumi Airport.

The Thai-language daily, Matichon, is being sued by a group of executives of Picnic Corporation, a cooking gas company now under investigation for alleged stock-related fraud. The lawsuit demands 10 billion baht in damages. Another lawsuit - demanding 5 billion baht, targets the business weekly Prachachat Turakij, owned by Matichon, which also reported on the Picnic case. Picnic was set up by a former deputy commerce minister, Suriya Larpwisuthisin, who had to resign from the government last July when members of his family, who were in control of Picnic, were charged with fraud.

The Thai Post is being sued by Shin Corp - founded by Thaksin and now controlled by his family - for insinuating that the company received preferential government treatment. The lawsuit demands 200 million baht in damages. Journalist and freedom of speech campaigner Supinya Klangnarong, for her part, is fighting her own libel suit - 400 million baht - also filed by Shin Corp. Supinya is the author of an interview published by the Thai Post in which some tough questions are asked regarding the connection between Shin Corp's soaring profits and Thaksin's years in government.

Recently, in her one and only court appearance before the final verdict in December, clasping a purple, semi-precious stone as a lucky charm, Supinya denounced "a climate of fear" prevailing in Thai society. In this sense, she is echoing Sunai Phasuk of Human Rights Watch, for whom "there is now a real sense of fear". Supinya feels that "deep down ... the lawsuit was filed in order to stop criticism of the Thaksin Shinawatra administration". It is well known in Thailand, Supinya says, that "majority shareholders of Shin Corp are members of the prime minister's family, his son and daughters, and Thaksin often says he needs to ask for money from his wife."

Most crucially, Supinya stresses that her information on Shin Corp's fabulous profits, which tripled between 2001 and 2002 after Thaksin's Thai Rak Thai Party came to power, was obtained from Shin Corp's own press releases.

A petition calling for Shin Corp to drop the criminal charges has been signed by a number of leading international intellectuals, including Noam Chomsky and Armand Mattelart. It's unlikely to produce any effect on the company.

Fight for the right to talk
Senior Thai newspaper editors and publishers recently got together in an emergency meeting called by Thailand's Press Council to analyze what the Bangkok Post described as "an unprecedented threat against their constitutional right to free expression". By this time Sondhi had already decided to take his talk show on the road and turn it into an expanded exercise in participative democracy.

Co-host Sarocha, who is network program director for the Thailand Outlook Channel, confirms that since September 23 they are broadcasting live every Friday from an auditorium at Thammasat University in Bangkok, with an audience of up to 4,000. "On October 14, Thailand's "day of democracy", the audience was over 10,000." They recently took the show to a packed central Bangkok park, claiming the auditorium was too small.

As the co-host, she says she is getting "a lot more feedback" after the controversy. She gets thousands of SMS comments and there's a weekly poll as well. Viewers can order a VCD of each show for only 55 baht, as well as yellow T-shirts with the slogan "We will fight for the King" printed in Thai. The only political talk show in Thailand is now broadcast on News One, a 24-hour, Thai-language satellite news channel. When it was on terrestrial Channel 9, the ratings used to be around 3 percentage points, unusually high for a program about politics.

Suwat is "absolutely sure" it's impossible for a Thai court order to silence Sondhi, as many in the Thai press fear. He says the court date for examining Sondhi's 1 baht lawsuit against the three MCOT executives is December 19. November 28 is the first hearing for the Thaksin lawsuit against the Manager Media Group, and December 26 the first hearing for the lawsuit against Sondhi, Sarocha and Thaiday Dot Com. Suwat will call a large number of witnesses, including academics and royalty. The Civil Court will rule on compensation only in March 2006. If they are found guilty, Sondhi and Manager Media Group have only 10 days to pay the full 1 billion baht in damages.

If the prime minister, his family's and friends' companies and government politicians win all the ongoing lawsuits, they stand to collect up to US$486 million. For some, Thaksin's pledge to eradicate poverty is on track.

(Copyright 2005 Asia Times Online Ltd. All rights reserved. Please contact us for information on sales, syndication and republishing .)

http://www.aljazeerah.info/Opinion%20edito...dra%20Singh.htm

Western pressure on Syria strengthens Russian influence in the Region

By K Gajendra Singh
Al-Jazeerah, November 2, 2005

"In our system, each individual is presumed innocent and entitled to a fair trial,” said George W. Bush when asked about 5 count indictment of Lewis "Scooter" Libby, US Vice- President’s top aide.

On 31 October, Russia with Chinese support, thwarted attempts by Anglo-Saxons, joined by France , former colonial master of Syria and Lebanon , to place Damascus under UN sanctions on the basis of an inconclusive and suspect report on the murder of Rafik Hariri ,ex-Prime Minister of Lebanon . The Security Council resolution only demands that Syria cooperate with an international inquiry into Hariri killing.

The 15-0 unanimous vote came after last-minute negotiations in which the resolution's sponsors - the US, France and Britain – had to delete a threat of sanctions against Syria from their draft and replace it with a warning of possible "further action" if Damascus failed to comply. Russia and China had made it clear that economic sanctions would invite a veto.

US led Western leadership and corporate and government media hounds have already tried and pronounced the top Damascus leadership almost guilty, based on the testimony of a known embezzler , according to 22 October Hamburg ‘s news magazine “ Der Spiegel” , by UN appointed investigator Detlev Mehlis whose impartiality and integrity are also suspect.



During his January visit to Moscow Syrian President Bashar Assad had signed an agreement to purchase surface-to-air missiles despite protests from Israel and USA`. He said that "these are weapons for air defense, meant to prevent aircraft from intruding in our airspace. ”To mark the historic Syrian visit, Russia announced that it would write off 73% of US$ 13.4 billion in debt owed by Syria from the days of the USSR. Russian President Vladimir Putin said this created "opportunities for long-term cooperation".

Assad invited Russia to the region because "Russia has an enormous role, and has a lot of respect from Third World countries ... which really hope that Russia will try to revive the positions it used to hold". He added that US foreign policy on Iraq was "disastrous". Ever since the United States invaded Iraq in March 2003, Syria has been threatened both by Israel and the US.
In end September the Syrian army’s chief-of-staff General Ali Habib during his four-day visit to Russia held discussions to further upgrade his country’s weapons and further strengthen defense cooperation between Moscow and Damascus. He discussed with Russian Defense Minister Sergei Ivanov ways for “maintenance and modernization of Syrian military equipment by Russian experts, the training of Syrian military officers in Russian military academies from 30 to 60 and future purchases of Russian weapons,” a Russian defense ministry statement said. General Ali Habib also visited a weapons factory specializing in high-precision anti-tank rockets in Tula region south of Moscow which produces small arms, “active armored” systems and Kornet-E anti-tank missiles.
Russia and China are equally determined to oppose any sanctions against Iran in its legitimate pursuit of the nuclear fuel cycle for power generation as permitted under the Nuclear Non- Proliferation Treaty .This was discussed at the SCO meeting in Moscow on 26 October , of Iran along with India and Pakistan are observers .Russia and China along with other SCO members have stopped USA in its tracks in its efforts to install puppet regimes in Kyrgyzstan and Uzbekistan through its street organized “Franchised revolutions ‘ with open supports and funds from US institutions. In September , Russia and China organized the first ever wide ranging and complex military exercises along the Chinese coast to send home the message to the West.


Russian media reported that Bashar al-Asad telephoned President Putin on 25 October and expressed readiness for ‘’ the broadest cooperation" with the UN commission . Putin urged cooperation and said Moscow supported "cautious actions on the part of the international community on this issue in order to avoid new sources of tension in the region," On the same day, Foreign Minister Sergei Lavrov spoke with his Chinese counterpart Li Zhaoxing about the situation in Lebanon and Syria in the context of the UN investigation. RTR reported that both Russia and China indicated they would veto UN sanctions on Syria .



USA’s double standards.



The presumption of innocence which Bush cited for Liibby does not apply to hundreds of detainees , some even American citizens in Guantanamo prison , described by the Amnesty International as present day Gulag , which even felt impelled to ask foreign governments to investigate and take action if necessary against US Defence Secretary Donald Rumsfeld and other senior officials ,citing the arrest warrants and possible trial of Chilean dictator Pinochet .



Cheney has replaced Libby with David Addington and John Hannah. Addington is the author of legal memos justifying torture of prisoners held by the US abroad, in direct contradiction of US treaty obligations under international law. Hannah spread disinformation produced by Ahmad Chalabi and the Iraqi National Congress about Iraq's supposed weapons of mass destruction. It is clear that Karl Rove , Bush’s top aide told Matt Cooper of Time Magazine about Valerie Plame Wilson ,whose CIA cover was blown ; it is an offence



It is a moot point whether a beleaguered Bush administration, perhaps mortally injured by the indicting of Libby and further hearings , would try to divert attention abroad by more propaganda crusades against Syrian and Iranian Presidents and even some foolhardy adventure . This administration has little credibility left at home and abroad and its actions are doing incalculable harm to the standing and prestige of upright US citizens and courageous whistle blowers like Ambassador Wilson , whose report triggered the actions which have culminated in the first ever such an indictment in the history of the White House.



It appears that for all practical purposes George Bush is now a dead lame-duck Presidents and perhaps deservedly so. A former Neo-Con wrote to this author, that Bush Junior was chosen by the Neocons who have brought USA to such a sorry pass , because he was a blank slate to write on their megalomaniac plans.



The statement by the new inexperienced President Mahmoud Ahmadinejad of Iran was taken up by US leadership and the West to mount a media crusade to browbeat Iran as they have failed to cow it down otherwise.



It is the Iranians who during a millennia of rule by foreigners like Arabs, Turks, Mongols and others , mostly Sunnis , gave legal and religious sanction to lie under duress called takkiya, ie, not bringing to the lips what is on the mind. But it is the West which is now employing takkiya. U.S.-led Anglo Saxon illegal invasion of Iraq was called “ Operation Iraqi Freedom “, when it is clear to everyone that it was nothing but a blatant 21st-century attempt to take over Iraq's petroleum resources and control the petro-region from Baghdad. In the process it cooked up causes belli like the weapons of mass destruction in Iraq, Iraq's relationship with Al Qaeda , its program for nuclear weaponisation .For the last excuse to invade Iraq , Bush relied on cooked up intelligence reports that Iraq was trying to get Uranium or from Niger. And when former US Ambassador Wilson, who went to ascertain if it were true and felt that it was wrong and exposed the Bush Administration lies, he and his wife were harassed to intimidate other whistle blowers .



But do not underestimate this double takkiya by Ahmadinejad. The centres of Sunni Islam in the region are Egypt, Saudi Arabia and Iraq , with Sunni majority Syria ruled by Shia Alawaite minority . Iraq has been almost destroyed and taken over by the Shia Iraqis, remote controlled as yet from Tehran . Egypt , where its pro US ruler Hosny Mubarak in power since 1981 has been recently re-elected in a sham election for another term , promotes US policies and has little popularity among Muslims . Saudi Arabia like other Sunni states is on tenterhooks in case of breakup of Iraq and has expressed its concerns publicly.



In the Arab and Muslim world support to the Palestinian cause has been the touchstone and the barometer of the Muslim Ummah’s cause. For long its main and defiant supporter was Saddam Hussein, who continued to send money to the families of martyrs in the occupied Palestine. Not only in the eyes of the Arabs and Muslims, Israel, fully supported by USA and partially by West European countries , now remains the main focus of Muslim Jihad in an millennium old warfare. By threatening to wipe out Israel from the map, the Iranian President is trying to take over the leadership of the Arab and Muslim Street, which was earlier with Saddam Hussein. Some world leaders have condemned remarks by President Ahmadinejad, who has only repeated the words of the late Ayatollah Ruho-Allah Khomeini, leader of the Islamic revolution, by saying: "Israel must be wiped off the map."



It is a moot point if a beleaguered George Bush administration, perhaps mortally injured politically after a grand jury indiction of Libby, to divert attention abroad ,would focus even more on Syrian and Iranian Presidents by exploiting its media control , 90% owned by 5 conglomerates . This administration has little credibility left at home and abroad. An original neo-con wrote to the author, that Bush was chosen by the new cons because he was a blank slate on which they wrote their megalomaniac plans .



In reaction to Western denunciations , Ahmadinejad defiantly marched in the streets of Tehran alongside tens of thousands of people supporting his call for the destruction of Israel .The rally was one of several anti-Israel demonstrations across the country that drew more than a million Iranians. He accused the West "They think they are the absolute rulers of the world," he added.

UN Report’s Star witness al-Sadik a convicted embezzler - Der Spiegel



According to Hamburg’s “ Der Spiegel” of 22 October ,the alleged intelligence agent al-Sadik, 42, on whose testimony a considerable portion of Mehlis investigation is based, has been convicted of , embezzlement and fraud, among other crimes. Even within the UN Commission investigating the Hariri murder ,there is doubt on the credibility of the Syrian witness. According to a statement by his brother, Sadik had called him from Paris in late summer and said “I’ve become a millionaire!” ( for giving false testimony !) Mehlis was contacted through the Syrian dissident Rifaat al-Assad,, an uncle of President Bashir al-Assad, who opposes his nephew in Damascus.

Hariri murder UN investigator Detlev Mehlis has doubtful integrity
Executive Director of the London based Institute for Policy Research & Development and Sussex University Prof NM Ahmed has cast doubts on the integrity of "Detlev Mehlis’ , who as Berlin public prosecutor, “ inadvertently but consistently covered up the dubious involvement of US, Israeli and German intelligence interests in the 1986 terrorist attack; actively built a selective politically-motivated case against suspects without objective material proof; while ignoring and protecting a group of suspects with documented connections to western secret services.” This fundamentally tarnishes the credibility of his investigation .
Mehlis prosecuted numerous terrorism and organized crime cases including the 1982 bombing of the La Belle Discotheque in West Berlin , promptly blamed by the Reagan administration on Libya to justify the US bombing of Tripoli and Benghazi, killing at least 30 Libyan civilians including children.

US National Security Agency intercepted coded exchanges between Tripoli and the East Berlin Libyan Peoples Bureau saying “We have something that will make you happy”, and another after the bombing: “An event occurred. You will be pleased with the result.” But in his sworn testimony for the Lockerbie trial, former Israeli intelligence colonel Victor Ostrovsky admitted that Israeli Mossad’s commandos had set up the transmitter in Tripoli to send false telex signals about the “success” of the Berlin bomb. ( In 1990, US had produced for the Saudi rulers ,concocted aerial photographs of Iraqi forces in an attack mode against the Kingdom to persuade them to accept US forces. These are standard Anglo-Saxon and Mossad tricks )

An investigation by German public television’s Zweites Deutsches Fernsehen (ZDF) broadcast on 25th August 1998 reported that several leading suspects in the Berlin disco bombing were being protected from prosecution by western intelligence services. According to Russian and East German intelligence services, the group worked for western intelligence. Full details on Detlev Mehlis capers are given in Mediainternational.net website of 30 October ,2005.

There is thus doubt that Mehlis’s investigations might conceal the role of US and Israeli intelligence interests in relation to the Hariri assassination.

The Report;



The international investigation was never mandated to make clear cut accusations. As Mehlis clearly states in the final paragraph of the 54 page-long report -- a summary of over 16,000 pages of documents the team collected during the course of its work -- only further investigations and a fair trial can prove the guilt or innocence of any given party. Mehlis also stated that the "investigation is not complete," and the UN secretary general, Kofi Annan, subsequently extended the inquiry until Dec. 15. But the prosecutor had enough confidence in the information he had garnered to add that there is "converging evidence pointing at both Lebanese and Syrian involvement in this terrorist act." The investigators further underlined that the Hariri assassination was prepared over several months, and was "carried out by a group with an extensive organization and considerable resources and capabilities."

Mehlis concluded that Hariri's assassination was so complex that it would be difficult to imagine that the Syrian and Lebanese intelligence services did not know about it. The assassination decision "could not have been taken without the approval of top-ranked Syrian security official and could not have been further organised without the collusion of their counterparts in the Lebanese security services.”. Clearly it is not a report with much judicial rectitude.

Condi goes off the handle again;

Change of unfriendly regimes in the Middle East is one constant theme of US policy .In her testimony before the Senate Foreign Relations Committee on 19th October, Condoleeza Rice confirmed that the administration’s strategy after 9/11 had always been to redesign the Middle East. Iraq was merely the first step in that broader strategy. As for regime change in Damascus , reportedly a US official even asked the Italian Senate President to suggest a replacement for Bashar Assad.

US President George W Bush told the pan-Arab Al-Arabiya TV channel that force would be used against Syria only as "the last -- the very last -- option". As also against Iran! But all options are on the table.

As usual Condi Rice went off the handle after the report "There must be some way to assure accountability," said Ms Rice, adding that the international community would have "no real credibility" if it failed to take punitive action. Her unabashed rhetoric , tone and use of language , compared to Gen Colin Powell’s ,has exposed the hollowness of her so called scholarship.

Why not the international criminal court for investigation [which the US opposes]."Everyone knows the United States' view of the international criminal court," said Ms Rice. "That view is not going to change."

Wrote academic and former Assistant Secretary of the Treasury in the Reagan administration, Paul Craig Roberts .”Grasping a UN report that uses unreliable witnesses to implicate Syria in the assassination of a former Lebanese government official, Condi Rice told the BBC on October 23 that Syria's crime cannot be "left lying on the table. This really has to be dealt with."

”This is amazing for many reasons. Here is the person in charge of US diplomacy acting as if she is the secretary of war unsheathing military force. Whoever heard of an American diplomat wanting to start a war because a former Middle Eastern government official was assassinated?

”The UN investigator, Detlev Mehlis, has no more idea who assassinated the former official than the US knows who is responsible for assassinating the many Iraqi officials under its protection. After more than two and one-half years of war in Iraq, the US still doesn't know exactly who the enemy is that it is fighting. Yet Mehlis blames Syria for an assassination on the strength of an informer described by the German news magazine, Der Spiegal, as a convicted felon and swindler.

On the basis of the word of a convicted felon and swindler, Condi Rice wants a high level UN Security Council meeting to condemn Syria so the Bush administration can bring about "regime change" in Syria.”

The accusations are based on convergences , guess and innuendo.” I think the report is far from professional and will not lead us to the truth," Syria's information minister, Mehdi Dakhlallah, told al-Jazeera television. Syria's ambassador to the US, Imad Moustapha, said the accusations "will only help fuel anti-American sentiment around the world".

Syria –Lebanon linkages and US- Israeli moves;

The Syrian-Lebanese relations are very complex as historically Lebanon was part of greater Syria as was Palestine including Israel and Jordan.

For decades, Lebanon has been the centre for regional and international power play, involving many Arab countries, Israel and the United States. These powers manipulated and even created the countries' political alliances, supplied funds and weapons, helped some players and marginalized others .

If Syria has naturally its own alliances, Israel also maintains proxies, as does USA with its right wing Lebanese Christians, as also France. Iran has its militias, and even Iraq, during the Ba'ath party reign, had its own supporters. The Palestinian Liberation Organization (PLO) was also a significant power broker throughout the 1970s, until the Israeli invasion of Lebanon in 1982, in which tens of thousands of Lebanese and Palestinians were killed. Since then, Palestinians have been confined to their refugee camps in the wake of the expulsion of PLO forces .

With so many competing forces in Lebanon, whether internally or externally, who keep their proxies and meddle in the country's affairs, to criticize Syria alone for Lebanon's misfortunes, past and present, and to solely single out Damascus as the only likely suspect in Hariri's murder on the evidence of a convicted embezzler by the German investigator is just western trickery .” It's ironic that those who have for long contributed to Lebanon's demise are now the main players in leading the fault-finding chorus, demanding justice and the "truth".

What ever may be Syria's record in Lebanon, Damascus was not alone responsible for increasing troubles in Lebanon.” It certainly had more to do with sheltering and benefiting Syria itself, an objective that often led to abuses of power, unwarranted interference in Lebanon's political affairs and ultimately to near complete hegemony over the country's sovereignty.” But Syria was invited to keep peace in Lebanon by US, UN and the Arab states at the time of the Civil war.



While US wants to bring "the perpetrators of Hariri's killing to justice" - as phrased by the State Department – the administration is pressuring Congressional lawmakers to exempt the CIA from a proposed ban on the "cruel, inhuman or degrading treatment or punishment" of anyone held by US authorities, mostly Arabs and Muslims.

It appears that the US foreign-policy approach to Syria is in line with the infamous report prepared for the Israeli government in 1996, by the individuals who manipulated US foreign policy to build a case for war on Iraq, namely Richard Perle, Douglas Feith and David Wurmser, among others. "A Clean Break: A New Strategy for Securing the Realm" counseled that "given the nature of the regime in Damascus, it is both natural and moral that Israel abandon the slogan 'comprehensive peace' and move to contain Syria, drawing attention to its weapons of mass destruction program, and rejecting 'land for peace' deals on the Golan Heights".

It recommended that Israel should establish "the precedent that Syrian territory is not immune to attacks emanating from Lebanon by Israeli proxy forces". It also read: "Israel can shape its strategic environment, in cooperation with Turkey and Jordan, by weakening, containing and even rolling back Syria. This effort can focus on removing Saddam Hussein from power in Iraq - an important Israeli strategic objective in its own right - as a means of foiling Syria's regional ambitions."

While US Senator Barbara Boxer had chided Condi Rice when the latter said that the Asian Sunami was an opportunity ( to improve tattered US image ) the assassination of the Hariri is thus another opportunity to extract more concessions from Damascus, which is standing up to the Israeli expansionism and American crusade.



On Lebanon, UK MP George Galloway, recently warned that a civil war was on the brink in Lebanon. He also called upon the Lebanese opposition not to transform Lebanon into a “knife in Syria’s back”. “During his visit to Lebanon, he felt that the elements of the Lebanese civil war, which ended in 1989, are now back and Lebanon has become a dangerous place now, alluding to Michel Aoun’s return and Samir Ja’ja’s release from jail, both of whom were the primary architects in the 15-year civil war. “ Lebanon was currently witnessing an ‘atmosphere of war’ following the February 14 assassination of Hariri and the subsequent explosions targeting key Lebanese political figures.

Russia-Syria-Israel triangle;

Moscow would “not disrupt the absence of balance!”



Sergey Lavrov two-day working visit to Israel ending on 28 despite friendly atmosphere failed to produce an understanding on any of the key problems in bilateral relations. Israel was disappointed with Russian failure to share its concerns over Syria and Iran. Russia's proposal to hold an international conference on Palestine fell on Israel’s deaf ears. Lavrov and Israeli Foreign Minister Silvan Shalom made only short statements to hide the disagreements between them on key questions. Lavrov expressed opposition to sanctions against Syria regarding the assassination of Hariri. “Syria has to be drawn into the investigation and not accused as a state. At this stage, the imposition of sanctions is excessive,” Lavrov declared.. Shalom did not agree with him.


Russian diplomats assured the Israelis that the promise made by Putin in his April visit that it would not provide Syria with arms that could disrupt the balance of power in the region would be kept. One Russian diplomat accompanying Lavrov joked that Moscow would “not disrupt the absence of balance,” apparently referring to Israel's military superiority over its Arab neighbors. In Israel, they react nervously to such jokes.



Growing concern over Iran's pursuit of a nuclear capability was the chief topic of the ministers' meeting, Shalom revealed that Israel is greatly concerned that Iran is close to producing a nuclear bomb, he said, warning that Israel "must take every necessary step" to prevent what he termed "a nightmare for us and for Russia." Israel reportedly has over 100 nuclear bombs.

Syrian reaction:

Post UN resolution , Syria requested for an emergency Arab League summit to rally regional support in the face of stern UN Security Council action. But as history has shown Anglo-Saxons have exploited Arab disunity throughout history .Instead of a summit of all 22 members, a smaller gathering of Syria, Saudi Arabia, Algeria, Lebanon and Egypt might be organized if others decline afraid of upsetting the United States, France and Britain . Arab league remains an ineffective organization.

With most members being Sunnis , Arab League offices based in Cairo ( like the influence of Saudis on OIC based in the Kingdom) and President Mubarak doing Washington ‘s bidding not much will be done to aid Shia Alawaite Assad. The author who was posted in Amman ( 1989-92 ) knows how efforts by late King Hussein of Jordan and others to find an Arab solution to Saddam’s invasion of Kuwait were undone by Mubarak at US command .He was amply rewarded for this action.

The Syria Times said the resolution as drafted was “openly politicised” and too heavily influenced by the United States.“It’s immoral and totally unacceptable that the will of the (international) community remains captive to a unilateral diktat and ... accepts tyranny and hegemony,” the paper said.

Tishrin, another government newspaper, criticized the proposed UN document as “tough and unbalanced” and urged the Security Council to adopt “a balanced and objective” resolution “that would not be a clear translation of the US administration’s will.”

Al Thawra daily said the United States wants Syria to “be stripped of its skin, abandon its regional and national role and be turned into a marginal state that carries out orders.”

Mass pro-government demonstrations were held in Damascus and Aleppo "Wake up Arabs, your turn will come soon!" said one banner. Wrote a Western commentators “ The officially organised protests were a reminder that despite public dissatisfaction over living standards, 20% unemployment, and falling oil income, the regime still knows how to exploit nationalist sentiment - and faces little conventional political opposition“ Would these pompous experts like to usher in democracy as in Iraq , with over 50% unemployment, rampaging anarchy and insecurity and almost total destruction of the state’s infrastructure and robbing of Iraqi peoples oil money by US overlords and their quislings and supporters

Tens of thousands of Lebanese attended an anti-Israel Hezbollah parade in Beirut’s southern suburb in a show of force by the group facing US-led pressure to disarm in line with a 14-month-old UN resolution.

“We say clearly that we stand by Syria, leadership and people, in the face of its targeting by the Americans and Zionists and attempts to punish it politically for standing by Lebanon and its resistance,” Hezbollah chief Sheikh Hassan Nasrallah told the rally. “What we are witnessing today is the using of the Mehlis report to punish Syria for a crime that it has not been convicted of as a punishment for its political and strategic options,” Nasrallah said.

Malik al-Abdeh, spokesman for the exiled Movement for Justice and Development opposition party, warned "The Sunni Salafist movement with its jihadist offshoots is a growing force within Syria, especially among the rural young," he said. "This movement is not under the influence of traditional Islamist parties like the Muslim Brotherhood. It is a relatively new phenomenon, greatly boosted by the Iraq insurgency... it represents the strongest challenge to the regime on the ground."

Like Ahmed Chalabi in Iraq , Mr Abdeh wants to takeover in Syria as US wants "a more seasoned and pragmatic politician than Bashar" to confront the Islamists. Another expert Rime Allaf, a Syria expert at the think tank Chatham House said ,”I think a number of countries are telling them this is not the time - even the Israelis. It's in their interest to have a weakened Syria, a Syria on its knees, but not a Syria in chaos." What an easy picking Iraq had looked from Washington.

Some opposition in USA

Ron Paul (R-TX) speaking in the US House of Representatives on October 26, said “Prepare for a broader war in the Middle East, as plans are being laid for the next U.S.-led regime change – in Syria. A UN report on the death of Lebanese Prime Minister Rafig Hariri elicited this comment from a senior U.S. policy maker: “Out of tragedy comes an extraordinary strategic opportunity.” This statement reflects the continued neo-conservative, Machiavellian influence on our foreign policy. The “opportunity” refers to the long-held neo-conservative plan for regime change in Syria, similar to what was carried out in Iraq.

“This plan for remaking the Middle East has been around for a long time. Just as 9/11 served the interests of those who longed for changes in Iraq, the sensationalism surrounding Hariri’s death is being used to advance plans to remove Assad.

“Syria was castigated for placing its troops in Lebanon, a neighboring country, although such action was invited by an elected government and encouraged by the United States. The Syrian occupation of Lebanon elicited no suicide terrorist attacks, as was suffered by Western occupiers.

“Condemning Syria for having troops in Lebanon seems strange, considering most of the world sees our 150,000 troops in Iraq as an unwarranted foreign occupation. Syrian troops were far more welcome in Lebanon. The statement that should scare all Americans (and the world) is the assurance by Secretary Rice that the President needs no additional authority from Congress to attack Syria. She argues that authority already has been granted by the resolutions on 9/11 and Iraq. This is not true.”

President Putin spoke to Iranian President Ahmadinejad on 25 October about Iran's nuclear program and possible action by the UN Security Council according to Russian media . He reiterated that the standoff over Iranian nuclear activities should be resolved "by political means within the framework of the International Atomic Energy Agency [IAEA]. Putin also reportedly suggested that Iranian cooperation with the IAEA be broadened and Tehran's talks with EU-3 (Britain, France, and Germany) be resumed . Russia reportedly would propose a compromise plan ,under which Iran could process uranium ore but not enrich uranium or produce nuclear fuel, AFP reported



NATO –SCO competition in Central Asia;



The one day meeting of Shanghai Cooperation Organization (SCO) in Moscow on 26 October was attended by Mongolian Chinese Prime Minister Wen Jiabao ,Prime Minister Tsakhiagiyn Elbegdorzh, Pakistani Prime Minister Shaukat Aziz, Indian Foreign Minister Natwar Singh, and Iranian First Vice President Parviz Davudi in Moscow on 26 October agreed on a "road map" that will include agreements on mutual cooperation in emergency situations and signed several economic accords.



Speaking at a meeting President Putin said the SCO had become an "influential factor" in the world He said that "the total population of SCO member countries and observer countries is more than 3 billion people, and during such meetings the leaders of these countries, the heads of the governments of our countries, make and will continue to make decisions that influence the social and economic well-being of an overwhelming majority of the population of our planet." Putin added that joint antiterrorism efforts remain a priority for the SCO, equating the recent terrorist attacks in Nalchik with the unrest in Uzbekistan in May as "examples of the terrorist threat."



The SCO comprises Russia, China, Kazakhstan, Uzbekistan, Kyrgyzstan, and Tajikistan, while Iran, India, Pakistan, and Mongolia enjoy observer status. India among observer countries wants to become full member. What if Iran too joins then SCO would stretch right up to eastern Mediterranean via Iran, Syria and Lebanon of the Hizbullahs .



Russian Parliament (Duma) Foreign Affairs Committee Chairman Konstantin Kosachev rejected western media claims that the SCO represented an effort to create a new anti-NATO military alliance .It is a classical western media logic that everything that happens in the world without their country is directed against it, Kosachev added. Politika Foundation head Vyacheslav Nikonov said contradictions between SCO members like China, India, and Pakistan were so great that talk of a military bloc was impossible now and in the foreseeable future, but the human resources and economic potential of the SCO made Western concerns understandable .In 20 years, China and India could become the largest and third-largest economies in the world with the nuclear and energy superpower Russia the fifth-largest economy in the world.



CIS Institute Deputy Director Vladimir Zharikhin said that Russia and Kazakhstan are unhappy that 90 percent of their energy resources are exported to the West, when the center of global economic development is shifting eastward in the region of SCO .He said. "We might like European culture, but Russia's economic interests will be directed toward the centers of accelerating economic growth, namely China and India."



Yes, Pakistan , USA’s non-Nato ally remains a centre of terrorism , with many attempts on the life of its ruler President Gen Musharraf’s life from inside its military ranks . While India and Pakistan have made progress on peace, Indian Prime Minister was forced to tell Gen Musharraf that terrorists who killed over 60 Indians in bomb blasts in Delhi before the festivals of Hindus and Muslims originated from Pakistan controlled areas.



Curiously ,Nato has now officially entered Pakistan Kashmir to help post earthquake relief operations . But would it leave! More so because when US foolishly tried to over reach in Uzbekistan and Kyrgyzstan to install friendly rulers through its “franchised street level revolutions , but failed . So US is unlikely to give up its control over Pakistan exercised through its armed forces and its intelligence services ISI , forged with Pakistan’s Gen Ayub Khan since 1958. With Gen Musharraf rightly suspicious of his own military ranks , as the latest sentences passed on those who tried to murder him in end 2003 thrice reveals , he might not be averse to Nato Military presence as another intelligence window , apart from many US FBI agents already active in Pakistan .USA and the West which acquiesced in Pakistan making the nuclear bombs for its support against USSR in Afghanistan now remain worried about Pakistani nukes in case extremists try to take over in Pakistan. Pakistan military has shown little compunction in selling nuclear technology and equipment to countries like Libya, Iran and some others too.



(K Gajendra Singh, served as Indian Ambassador to Turkey and Azerbaijan in1992 -96. Prior to that, he served as ambassador to Jordan (during the 1990 - 91Gulf war), Romania and Senegal . He is currently chairman of the Foundation for Indo-Turkic Studies, in Bucharest .- Email-Gajendrak@hotmail.com

http://www.voanews.com/english/2005-11-03-voa11.cfm

Diplomats Say Iran Close to Restarting Uranium Processing
By VOA News
03 November 2005



Diplomats say Iran is readying a new phase of uranium processing, despite a call by the U.N. atomic agency to suspend all sensitive nuclear work.


Two technicians carry box containing uranium ore concentrate, known as yellowcake, at the Uranium Conversion Facility of Iran, just outside the city of Isfahan (file photo)
Officials at the International Atomic Energy Agency said Iran will begin feeding a new batch of uranium into its plant at Isfahan next week.

Earlier this year, the 35-nation IAEA board warned it would refer Iran to the U.N. Security Council if the country failed to suspend uranium enrichment and allow nuclear inspections.

This week, Iran allowed U.N. inspectors access to its Parchin military complex to collect environmental samples, in an apparent effort to avoid possible sanctions.

The United States says the Parchin site has been used for nuclear weapons testing. But Tehran insists its nuclear program is peaceful.

Meanwhile, Iran's state media quoted the country's foreign minister saying more than 40 of the country's ambassadors were being replaced. He said some envoys had reached retirement age, adding their terms will expire by the end of the year.

http://english.aljazeera.net/NR/exeres/8E2...A7FFE809146.htm


Bolton pushes for new Syria resolution
Thursday 03 November 2005, 18:35 Makka Time, 15:35 GMT

Bolton said sovereignty had not been restored to Lebanon

US Ambassador John Bolton has said he wants another UN resolution forcing Syria to withdraw any intelligence agents it keeps in Lebanon, although Russia and other Security Council members appeared unwilling to support further action.

"We certainly see a resolution that continued to push for full implementation of 1559," Bolton said, referring to the measure adopted in September 2004 demanding the withdrawal of foreign forces from Lebanon and the disbanding of militia.

He said such a resolution would not be drawn up for several weeks. "The conclusion of 1559 that Lebanon should be restored to full sovereignty and territorial integrity has not been met," he said.

Bolton was speaking on Wednesday after Security Council consultations on a 26 October report from special UN envoy Terje Roed-Larsen, who said Syria had withdrawn all its troops but no one could be sure if agents still remained. He also said arms were still flowing to Palestinians and other militia in Lebanon.


The Syrian Deputy PM said his
country could weather sanctions

Russia's UN ambassador, Andrei Denisov, thought another measure would be "overkill". On Monday the council adopted a tough resolution ordering Syria to detain officials suspected in a plot to kill former Lebanese prime minister Rafiq al-Hariri or face possible punitive action.

"How many times can you kill one person - two times, five times or 10 times when one time is enough?" Denisov asked. "And that is the case here."

Other Security Council diplomats said they had no immediate plans to pass another resolution.

Arms smuggling

Roed-Larsen's report said weapons were still being smuggled across the Syrian border to Palestinian refugee camps in Lebanon but he would not say whether Damascus was responsible.

"It is not disputed by the government of Syria nor the government of Lebanon that there are arms flows and even that there have been massive arms flows across the border," albeit in both directions, Roed-Larsen said after the consultations.

He told reporters he was not in a position to say who supplied the arms.

Syria's UN ambassador Fayssal Mekdad denied his government was shipping weapons to Lebanon.

"Syria will not allow this, did not allow this. This is not in the interest of either Syria or Lebanon," Mekdad said. "Our position is not to allow any such activity."

Hizb Allah talks


Roed-Larsen said weapons were
being smuggled into Lebanon


Roed-Larsen said he was encouraged that the leader of the Hizb Allah resistance group, also a legal party in Lebanon, was talking to the Lebanese government about its status.

"I found that an encouraging and a very productive comment," he said. "What we are doing at this point is to encourage the government of Lebanon to go into a dialogue with the militia to disband and disarm consistent with 1559."

Hizb Allah chief Shaikh Hassan Nasr Allah has spoken in favour of a dialogue but also said his group would not disarm as long as Israel was a threat.

Hizb Allah, also backed by Iran, takes credit for forcing Israeli troops to withdraw from South Lebanon in May 2000 after 22 years of occupation.

Syria unconcerned

As the potential threat of economic sanctions loomed over Syria, Damascus Deputy Prime Minister Abd Allah Dardari told Reuters his country could weather an embargo.

Monday’s Security Council resolution did not include sanctions but warns of ‘further action’ that could include an embargo if the UN considers Syria to be uncooperative with the al-Hariri probe.

"How many times can you kill one person - two times, five times or 10 times when one time is enough?... And that is the case here."

Andrei Denisov,
Russia's UN ambassador


Dardari said Syria's ample foreign reserves and small debt would give it resilience against any sanctions.

"The past years of relative isolation are proving to be somehow useful as we are self-sufficient in many areas," Reuters quoted Dardari as saying.

"In our dealings we are stronger because we are less dependent and the economy is less exposed to foreign external pressures," said Dardari, whose country produces 450,000 barrels per day (bpd) of crude oil and exports about 250,000 bpd.

However Dardari acknowledged that international sanctions would still disrupt trade, especially with the European Union, the destination for half of Syria's exports and the origin of 37% of its imports.

"There is no country that is 100% self sufficient. It's stupid to think we are not going to be affected to some extent," he said.

http://www.msnbc.msn.com/id/9909169/

Key al-Qaida figure reportedly captured

Suspect is a leader of European terror network, officials tell NBC News
Mustafa Setmariam Nasar is shown in an undated file photo distributed by the

Updated: 11:03 a.m. ET Nov. 3, 2005
WASHINGTON - A key figure in al-Qaida’s terror network in Europe is under arrest, U.S. counterterrorism officials tell NBC News.

Two U.S. officials, speaking on condition of anonymity, say that the alleged terrorist, Mustafa Setmariam Nasar, also known as Abu Musab al-Suri, was recently arrested in Pakistan. Pakistani government officials say they are not aware of any such arrest.

Nasar is an expert in explosives and chemicals who trained recruits at al-Qaida terror camps in Afghanistan before the Sept. 11, 2001, terrorist attacks in the United States, according to counterterror officials and Nasar's wanted poster on the State Department's Rewards for Justice Web site.

Nasar was born in Syria but is married to a Spanish woman and has Spanish nationality. He has traveled extensively in Europe and has militant connections in Europe, Pakistan and elsewhere, and security experts believe his arrest could prove to be an intelligence bonanza for the CIA and other U.S. and European counterterrorism agencies.

Nasar is known inside the US intelligence world as the “pen jihadist”, a prolific writer whose communiques carry great weight in the militant underworld. He has written extensively on the Internet of his desire to use chemical or biological weapons against the United States, an effort he has described as “dirty bombs for a dirty nation."

$5 million reward
Last year, the U.S. government announced a $5 million reward for information leading to the capture of Nasar.

In September 2003, Nasar was among 35 people named in an indictment handed down by a Spanish magistrate for terrorist activities connected to al-Qaida.

Nasar's name has been linked in the press to the July 7 terror bombings in London and to the deadly Madrid bombings in 2004, but US intelligence officials say they are not clear what role, if any, Nasar played in those attacks.

The Associated Press reported Thursday morning that a man believed to be Nasar was captured in a raid this week in Quetta, the capital of Pakistan’s southwestern Baluchistan province. A second suspect, identified as Jaish-e-Mohammed, a Pakistani Islamic militant group allegedly linked to al-Qaida, also was arrested and a third suspect, a Saudi named Shaikh Ali Mohammed al-Salim, were shot and killed during the raid, AP reported.

Report on arrest said inaccurate
But U.S. counterterrorism officials tell NBC News that Nasar was arrested prior to the Quetta raid, and say it is unclear if the Quetta arrests are even connected at all to Nasar's arrest.

Nasar's wanted poster on the Rewards for Justice Web site reports:

"Mustafa Setmariam Nasar, also known as Abu Musab al-Suri, is an al-Qaida member and former trainer at the Derunta and al-Ghuraba terrorist camps in Afghanistan. Born in Aleppo, Syria in 1958, Nasar was a member of the radical Syrian Muslim Brotherhood. He fled Syria in the 1980s and traveled widely throughout the Middle East and North Africa, before associating with the Algerian Islamic Group. He settled in Madrid in 1987 and gained Spanish citizenship through marriage.

While in Spain, he authored a series of inflammatory essays under the pen name Umar Abd al-Hakim. In 1995 he moved to United Kingdom and served as a European intermediary for al-Qaida. Nasar traveled extensively between Europe and Afghanistan throughout the late 1990s, finally moving his family to Afghanistan in 1998. He attempted to organize his own extremist group prior to September 11, 2001 — but in the wake of the attacks he pledged loyalty to Osama bin Ladin as a member of al-Qaida. While in Afghanistan, Nasar worked closely with Midhat Mursi al-Sayid Umar, also known as Abu Khabab al-Masri, to train extremists in poisons and chemicals. Nasar also conducted training at the al-Ghuraba camp in Afghanistan. He is likely in Afghanistan or Pakistan. Recent unconfirmed press reports suggest that he may have had a role in the March 11, 2004, Madrid bombings."

More than 700 arrested
Pakistan, a key U.S. ally in its war on terrorism, says it has arrested more than 700 al-Qaida suspects since the Sept. 11, 2001, attacks in America, and has handed most of the suspects to the United States.

The last reported arrest of a suspected key al-Qaida figure in Pakistan was in May, when Abu Farraj al-Libbi, the alleged mastermind of assassination attempts against Pakistani President Gen. Pervez Musharraf, was nabbed after a shootout in a northwestern town. He was later handed over to the United States.

The Associated Press contributed to this report.

http://www.debka.com/article.php?aid=1105


Al Qaeda`s Afghanistan Jailbreak

From DEBKA-Net-Weekly Oct. 21
November 2, 2005, 2:34 PM (GMT+02:00)

To this day no one can explain how four senior al Qaeda operatives were able to break out of the top-security American jail in the Afghan Bagram air base near Kabul on July 10; how they breached its defenses, cut across the giant base peopled by 12,000 US troops, slipped through checkpoints and security screenings and exited the base undetected.

There can be no doubt that the fugitives received outside help – whether in the form of inside intelligence or Afghans employed on the base.

This week, on Tuesday, October 18, the four escapees surfaced in a videotape aired by the Dubai-based Arab language satellite TV channel Al Arabiya. Its editing was of superior quality compared with the tapes that usually coming out of Afghanistan.

In one section, Mahmoud al-Kahtani, a Saudi, instructs a group of fighters and shows them a map of the jail from which the four escaped. He explained that Sunday was chosen for the jailbreak because then non-believers have the day off.

Abdullah Hashimi, a Syrian, next explained how the four fugitives hid for four days inside the American air base surrounding the prison without being discovered. They then fled and joined the Taliban outside.

The third fugitive, Mahmoud Ahmad, an Iraqi known also as Faruq al-Iraqi, is the narrator. He was arrested in 2002 in Indonesia as the suspected link between al Qaeda and the Indonesian Jemaah Islamiya. The fourth fugitive, Muhammad Hassan, identified as a Libyan, says the least of the four but also appeared to be the group’s leader.

DEBKA-Net-Weekly’s counter-terror sources identify Hassan as Sheikh Hassan Qaid, a Libyan.

Before the videotape was released, he circulated a special message to all al Qaeda fighters which outlined in detail his impressions of American methods of pursuit, detention, interrogation and handling of prisoners in the US jail facilities where he was held.

According to Hassan Qaid, the Americans when they caught him subjected him to a full body search; they took not only his finger- and toe-prints, but photographed the retinas of his eyes and took hair samples from all parts of his body.

He listed the eight questions which he claimed American interrogators fired at him:

1. What terrorist attacks are planned for inside the United States?

2. What terrorist attacks are planned against American targets overseas?

3. Where are Osama bin Laden and his close aides?

4. Who are the next-generation al Qaeda commanders and where are they to be found?

5. Where are the Taliban leader Mullah Omar and his following hiding?

6. Where are Mullah Omar’s spiritual mentor, Sheikh Jalal al Edin Haqani, and his son Saraj al Edin Hagani, the Taliban’s operations chief?

7. Where does al Qaeda get its financing and who are its sources?

8. Where do al Qaeda fighters hold their weapons training exercises?

Without naming his sources, Qaid offered detailed information on additional American and Afghan detention camps in Afghanistan - with their codenames. Facilities on the lines of the Bagram prison, where he and his comrades were held, are located at the Kandahar military air base in the south. Only al Qaeda members rated by the Americans as senior are kept there, he said; the others are sent to camps managed by Afghans in the interior. Some are also shipped to prisons in Jordan, Egypt, the UAE and Morocco. Of late, the Americans had begun transferring prisoners to Indonesia.

The escaped al Qaeda captive claimed that the most important American prison in the country, where he and his comrades were held, is located at the end of the Bagram airfield’s runway. It is there that the Americans hold Arab al Qaeda prisoners. They call it the Dark Camp. Despite repeated promises to the Red Cross to shut the camp down, it remains operational.

Another American prison in Kabul is located, says the escaped al Qaeda fugitive, in the former palace of the ousted Taliban regime’s leader Mullah Omar. There is one more American jail called Presidency 2 in Kabul and another in the northern Valley of Panjshir.

Qaid’s letter to this friends ends by saying that he has collected many important pieces of information about the Americans, but he will share them only with people he trusts whom he will brief by a different form of communication.

“The knife that slaughtered the guards at Bagram and set us free is now on its way to other places,” said Hassan Qaid. This is taken to mean that further jailbreaks are in the works in Afghanistan on the lines of the escape of the four al Qaeda operatives from Bagram.

Incidentally, US officials in Kabul have never confirmed the escape of this foursome or verified the claim that prison warders were murdered.

Syrian Bigwigs and Capital Flee under Implied Threat of Military Action

DEBKAfile Special Report

November 1, 2005, 2:30 PM (GMT+02:00)





The threat of military action was embedded in the UN Security Council resolution. It was reinforced by US Secretary of state Condoleezza Rice when she spoke of “serious’ consequences” – diplomatic parlance for military action – should Syria fail to cooperate with the final and conclusive part of UN investigator Dehlev Mehlis’ inquiry into the murder of Lebanese leader Rafiq Hariri last February.

The explicit threat of economic sanctions was deleted from the American-British-French draft demanding Damascus’ cooperation. It was dropped for the sake of a unanimous 15:0 endorsement to appease Russian, Chinese and Algerian objections. Instead, the resolution called for unspecific “measures.” However the motion was adopted under Chapter VII of the UN Charter, which spells out these measures as being “partial interruption of economic relations and of rail, sea, air, postal, telegraph, and other means of communication, and severance of diplomatic relations.”

The same chapter permits the use of armed force if those measures fall short of their purpose. Syria is required to detain any suspects named by the UN investigators and hand them over for interrogation at places and in conditions determined by those investigators.

The second tough clause states: suspects may be subject to a travel ban and a freeze on their assets.

Rice and British foreign secretary Jack Straw both addressed the Security Council session to strengthen the implied phased threats of the resolution.

Faced with this torrent of menacing language, Bashar Assad’s close associates have already decided that escape is the better part of valor. Influential Syrian VIPs appear to have read the UN resolution carefully last week and are absconding. DEBKAfile’s intelligence sources reveal large cash withdrawals from Syrian banks, currency conversions and transfers to banks outside the country.

The flight of money was accompanied by an exodus of some of the leading families of Damascus – anxious to beat “the ban on travel and assets freeze” mandated by the UN resolution for suspects in the Hariri murder plot.

The largest capital transfer – estimated at $6-7bn – was made by the tycoon Rami Makhlouf who lost no time in removing himself, business and family from Damascus to Dubai.

Makhlouf’s defection is a mortal blow for Assad and his shrinking circle of supporters. He is not only the manager of the Assad clans’ finances, his is also a close kinsman; Bashar’s mother is his aunt, sister of his father General Adnan Makhlouf, who served the late president Hafez Assad in a top position of trust as commander of the presidential guard.

His huge capital transfer and removal of his business center from the Syrian capital are capable of bringing the national economy crashing down about Assad’s ears.

His is not the only defection. Several other affluent Syrian businessmen close to the regime have also decamped. The second richest man in the country, Firas Tlas, has moved lock, stock and barrel, to Abu Dhabi. DEBKAfile’s sources report the secret flit of General Bahajat Suleiman, head of Syria’s intelligence council and virtual overlord of the national clandestine services.

Desperate to drum up support from his fellow Arab leaders, Assad demanded an Arab League summit but was informed that a narrow forum was the most that can be convened.

UN investigator Mehlis and his team were back at work in Beirut soon after the Security Council resolution was passed Monday night, Oct. 31. Mid-December is his deadline for winding up his probe.

Bashar Assad is confronted head-on now with a dilemma: which of his close relative should he surrender as a scapegoat? His young brother Maher Assad, or his sister’s husband, Assed Shawqat? Both top the Mehlis list of Syrian suspects in the Hariri murder plot.

Al Qaeda`s Afghanistan Jailbreak

From DEBKA-Net-Weekly Oct. 21

November 2, 2005, 2:34 PM (GMT+02:00)


Four al Qaeda prisoners who got away


To subscribe to DEBKA-Net-Weekly click HERE .

To this day no one can explain how four senior al Qaeda operatives were able to break out of the top-security American jail in the Afghan Bagram air base near Kabul on July 10; how they breached its defenses, cut across the giant base peopled by 12,000 US troops, slipped through checkpoints and security screenings and exited the base undetected.

There can be no doubt that the fugitives received outside help – whether in the form of inside intelligence or Afghans employed on the base.

This week, on Tuesday, October 18, the four escapees surfaced in a videotape aired by the Dubai-based Arab language satellite TV channel Al Arabiya. Its editing was of superior quality compared with the tapes that usually coming out of Afghanistan.

In one section, Mahmoud al-Kahtani, a Saudi, instructs a group of fighters and shows them a map of the jail from which the four escaped. He explained that Sunday was chosen for the jailbreak because then non-believers have the day off.

Abdullah Hashimi, a Syrian, next explained how the four fugitives hid for four days inside the American air base surrounding the prison without being discovered. They then fled and joined the Taliban outside.

The third fugitive, Mahmoud Ahmad, an Iraqi known also as Faruq al-Iraqi, is the narrator. He was arrested in 2002 in Indonesia as the suspected link between al Qaeda and the Indonesian Jemaah Islamiya. The fourth fugitive, Muhammad Hassan, identified as a Libyan, says the least of the four but also appeared to be the group’s leader.

DEBKA-Net-Weekly’s counter-terror sources identify Hassan as Sheikh Hassan Qaid, a Libyan.

Before the videotape was released, he circulated a special message to all al Qaeda fighters which outlined in detail his impressions of American methods of pursuit, detention, interrogation and handling of prisoners in the US jail facilities where he was held.

According to Hassan Qaid, the Americans when they caught him subjected him to a full body search; they took not only his finger- and toe-prints, but photographed the retinas of his eyes and took hair samples from all parts of his body.

He listed the eight questions which he claimed American interrogators fired at him:

1. What terrorist attacks are planned for inside the United States?

2. What terrorist attacks are planned against American targets overseas?

3. Where are Osama bin Laden and his close aides?

4. Who are the next-generation al Qaeda commanders and where are they to be found?

5. Where are the Taliban leader Mullah Omar and his following hiding?

6. Where are Mullah Omar’s spiritual mentor, Sheikh Jalal al Edin Haqani, and his son Saraj al Edin Hagani, the Taliban’s operations chief?

7. Where does al Qaeda get its financing and who are its sources?

8. Where do al Qaeda fighters hold their weapons training exercises?

Without naming his sources, Qaid offered detailed information on additional American and Afghan detention camps in Afghanistan - with their codenames. Facilities on the lines of the Bagram prison, where he and his comrades were held, are located at the Kandahar military air base in the south. Only al Qaeda members rated by the Americans as senior are kept there, he said; the others are sent to camps managed by Afghans in the interior. Some are also shipped to prisons in Jordan, Egypt, the UAE and Morocco. Of late, the Americans had begun transferring prisoners to Indonesia.

The escaped al Qaeda captive claimed that the most important American prison in the country, where he and his comrades were held, is located at the end of the Bagram airfield’s runway. It is there that the Americans hold Arab al Qaeda prisoners. They call it the Dark Camp. Despite repeated promises to the Red Cross to shut the camp down, it remains operational.

Another American prison in Kabul is located, says the escaped al Qaeda fugitive, in the former palace of the ousted Taliban regime’s leader Mullah Omar. There is one more American jail called Presidency 2 in Kabul and another in the northern Valley of Panjshir.

Qaid’s letter to this friends ends by saying that he has collected many important pieces of information about the Americans, but he will share them only with people he trusts whom he will brief by a different form of communication.

“The knife that slaughtered the guards at Bagram and set us free is now on its way to other places,” said Hassan Qaid. This is taken to mean that further jailbreaks are in the works in Afghanistan on the lines of the escape of the four al Qaeda operatives from Bagram.

Incidentally, US officials in Kabul have never confirmed the escape of this foursome or verified the claim that prison warders were murdered.

http://www.taipeitimes.com/News/editorials...1/02/2003278434

US liberals gloat at the prospect of a Republican implosion

By Gary Younge
THE GUARDIAN , LONDON
Wednesday, Nov 02, 2005,Page 9
Liberals called it "Fitzmas." And it was a long time coming. But even though it took almost two years for special prosecutor Patrick Fitzgerald to make it down the chimney, it was worth the wait. Lewis "Scooter" Libby, the chief of staff of vice-president Dick Cheney, faces up to 30 years in prison and a fine of US$1.25 million if found guilty of lying over his role in leaking the identity of a covert CIA agent.

Meanwhile, the continuing investigation of US President George W. Bush's consigliere, Karl Rove, holds out the possibility of further charges against a more senior White House staff member.

In a week that saw Bush withdraw his Supreme Court nominee, Harriet Miers, and that followed a week in which Tom DeLay, the Republican house leader, was arrested for money laundering and conspiracy, liberals were gorging themselves on a festival of alleged corruption, criminality and incompetence prepared and served by conservatives.

The extent to which these most recent developments have exposed the Bush administration's real agenda and modus operandi should be welcomed. But legal defeats for the right should not be mistaken as political victories for the liberal-left, which has yet to convince anyone that it represents a meaningful alternative.

There is a thin line between what we know to be true and what we can show to be undeniable. Whether it's Rodney King or Abu Ghraib, only with incontrovertible evidence does an assertion shift from a debating point to a reference point.

Fitzgerald's investigation crossed that line, laying out in clear detail the proof for some of the central criticisms the liberal-left has asserted about the Bush administration over the past five years.

First, that the case for the invasion of Iraq was built on a lie. This goes to the heart of the matter. Valerie Plame was a covert CIA agent whose husband, the former ambassador Joseph Wilson, was sent on a CIA-sponsored trip to investigate whether Iraq was seeking to buy uranium from Niger for nuclear weapons. Wilson concluded that this was unlikely but the claim ended up in Bush's state of the union address anyhow. When it came to former Iraqi president Saddam Hussein's supposed weapon's cache, the White House was not the victim of flawed intelligence. It was the willful perpetrator of known falsehood.

Second, that lie could only be sustained by discrediting those who dared to expose it. On July 6 two years ago, Wilson accused the Bush administration of exaggerating the case for war in an article in the New York Times. Libby sought to trash Wilson's credibility by telling reporters that Plame helped arrange her husband's trip, thus revealing her identity and sparking the investigation. It is a crime knowingly to divulge the identity of an undercover CIA operative.

For the team that stood a candidate whose wealthy connections ensured he never saw combat while rubbishing the actual war record of his opponent, Senator John Kerry, this was business as usual. Two days after Wilson's piece appeared a Pew poll showed that over the previous four months the number of US citizens who believed the military effort in Iraq was going very well had slumped form 61 percent to 23 percent; the number of those who thought it was not going well had rocketed from 4 percent to 21 percent.

Three months after Bush landed on the USS Lincoln emblazoned with its Mission Accomplished banner, both the message and the mission were tanking; it was time to shoot the messengers along with the Iraqis.

Third, the case has revealed the supine character of the US' mainstream media in the run-up to the war. Primarily, it showcased the sharp practices of New York Times reporter Judith Miller. In Miller's own account of her grand jury testimony, she wrote: "When the subject turned to Mr Wilson, Mr Libby requested that he be identified only as a `former Hill staffer' (rather than "senior administration official.") I agreed to the new ground rules because I knew that Mr Libby had once worked on Capitol Hill." I once played center forward for Cygnet Rovers of Stevenage. But to cite me as "a former footballer" would, in most instances, be as true as it is misleading. Miller's uncritical approach amounted to dictation that bolstered the administration's flimsy case for going to war.

"WMD -- I got it totally wrong," she told Times reporters recently. "If your sources are wrong, you are wrong. I did the best job that I could."

Neither the Times in particular nor US journalism in general should be judged by the standards of one reporter. But while Miller's reporting style in the run-up to the war was appalling, its content was not aberrant. Following the terrorist attacks of Sept. 11, the administration circled the wagons around the flag and the media found itself on the wrong side. Politically embedded at home before they were military embed-ded abroad, their fear of appearing unpatriotic trumped their fear of misinforming the public.

So the investigation has given us one of the clearest indications to date of how we got to this point. Given the malevolent partisanship of the Republican party, it is not surprising that many liberals gloat at the prospect of a full-scale Republican implosion.

But such schadenfreude is premature. The wounds of recent weeks have all been self-inflicted -- the result of a mixture of hubris, malice, greed and ineptitude. There is no doubt that they have damaged Bush politically. A Washington Post-ABC poll this weekend shows his approval rating at an all-time low, with the public believing former president Bill Clinton ran a more ethical administration after the Monica Lewinsky scandal than Bush does now.

Meanwhile, An AP-Ipsos poll released on Saturday shows support for the war at an all-time low of 37 percent.

But the Democrats are not faring much better, with only marginally more support than Republicans, according to a poll taken before the indictments and Miers withdrawal, but after Hurricane Katrina and DeLay's arrest.

Having supported the war and without coherent proposals for disengaging, they are ill-placed to take advantage of the Republican's current troubles.

Either unable or unwilling to present a clear agenda of how they would do things differently, they have been effectively mute for several months. With no opposition, popular disenchantment with the Bush Administration's ethical failings is descending into cynicism.

Indeed, the only group that has really flexed its muscles in recent weeks has been the Christian right, which derailed Mier's nomination to the Supreme Court. Unless the Democrats develop the wherewithal to challenge them, conservatives will then shape both the law and the politics of the country for a generation. And Fitzmas will be little more than a lingering reminder of what the law can do when politics has failed.

http://www.arabicnews.com/ansub/Daily/Day/...2005110224.html

Senator Rockefeller's seeks how officials misled US citizens into Iraq war
Iraq-USA, Politics, 11/2/2005

US Senator Jay Rockefeller had threatened last week to seek an outside investigation on how intelligence information was abused to mislead the country into a war against Iraq.

As a result of an ongoing criminal investigation, where a US prosecutor last week has brought formal charges against very high level White House officials for having broken the law conspiring to discredit a person, a former US ambassador Joseph Wilson, who had written an article about the inaccuracy of a claim that President George W. Bush had made about Iraq relating to supposed efforts to acquire nuclear weapons. Wilson had been sent to Africa by the CIA to investigate documents that claimed that Iraq was buying raw uranium from Niger to use for possible weapons production, charges that Wilson found to be false from his investigation. The International Atomic Energy Agency had taken a look at the documents and declared them to be forgeries (see reference dated 3/8/2005). When Bush told the nation that Iraq had sought uranium in Niger, even after the CIA investigation, led by Wilson, showed otherwise, Wilson wrote an article stating that the Bush allegations are misleading in light of the facts. This in turn, apparently, prompted the White House to launch an effort to discredit Ambassador Wilson by the White House revealing secretly, in violation of the law, the secret identity of Wilson's wife, who works for the CIA as an undercover agent, all this White House effort, in order to claim that Wilson's investigative mission was as a result of the influence of his wife at the CIA, and is thus not a credible investigator. Wilson noted on CNN yesterday that he was twice assigned as an ambassador to Africa by the father of the current president, the previous President George Herbert Bush, and that the Wilson had served also served as a very high level diplomat in Iraq in 1991, and Wilson was know for his connections in the African country of Niger.

Senator Rockefeller said last week in a statement that "It is a terrible day for all Americans when a top White House official is accused of lying and obstructing justice, made all the worse when it's about a national security matter."

The senator added "These very serious charges go to the heart of whether administration officials misused intelligence by disclosing undercover CIA agent. They also heighten concerns that the administration engaged in a pattern of misusing intelligence to make the case for going to war with Iraq."

Senator Rockefeller's "To date, Congress has completely failed to answer these critical questions. The fact is that at any time the Senate Intelligence Committee pursued a line of questioning that brought us close to the White House, our efforts were thwarted. If my Republican colleagues are not prepared to undertake a full and serious congressional investigation into the potential misuse of intelligence, then I regretfully conclude that we have no choice but to pursue an outside independent investigation. The American people deserve answers and they want the truth."

Yesterday, MSNBC reported that the Senate was forced by Democrats to start so-called "phase two" of the investigation into the intelligence data that was used to lead the country into a war against Iraq. "Phase 2" of the investigation will focus on the apparent fact that not only was the intelligence on Iraq weak and wrong, but that intelligence was knowingly used in a manner by officials to mislead citizens, in order to support an already made decision and desire to go war.

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