THE FIGHT FOR IRAQ

Bush to Hail Iraqi Army Strides,
But Fissures Widen

By YOCHI J. DREAZEN, GREG JAFFE and JOHN D. MCKINNON
Staff Reporters of THE WALL STREET JOURNAL
November 29, 2005; Page A4

WASHINGTON -- The Bush administration is stepping up its efforts to persuade Americans that Iraq's nascent security forces will soon be able to defend the country on their own, a move designed to shore up domestic support for the Iraq war while setting the stage for a reduction in U.S. military troops next year.

President Bush, in an address at the U.S. Naval Academy in Annapolis, Md., Wednesday is expected to emphasize progress in training Iraqi troops. But the administration's endorsement comes as Iraqi forces increasingly are operating as sectarian militias, targeting Sunnis on behalf of their Shiite political patrons and raising the possibility of all-out civil war.


The Bush speech follows recent positioning by Secretary of State Condoleezza Rice and reflects a major shift in the administration's thinking about Iraq. Though publicly declining to set any deadlines for a military withdrawal from Iraq for fear of emboldening the insurgents, senior White House and Pentagon officials are tentatively planning to withdraw as many as 50,000 American troops next year, according to officials familiar with the deliberations. Barring a sustained flare-up in violence, a formal decision to begin the pullout could come shortly after the Dec. 15 vote for a permanent Iraqi government, the officials said. Currently, 158,000 American troops serve in Iraq, but that number will fall to 138,000 after the elections as part of normal deployment schedules.

In his Naval Academy speech, President Bush will make the case that the U.S. is achieving substantive progress in training Iraqi forces that will soon be able to replace their American counterparts, according to administration officials. They said Mr. Bush will cite statistics showing a growing number of Iraqi army battalions capable of leading combat operations with limited American logistical support, and he will highlight areas that are now under Iraqi security forces' full control -- such as Baghdad's relatively peaceful Haifa Street, once the scene of near-daily violence.

Pentagon officials said about 40 of the 100 Iraqi army battalions are capable of taking the lead in combat operations with some support from U.S. or other coalition forces, up from 36 such battalions in August. Fifty Iraqi battalions can fight alongside the U.S. but require significant American leadership, logistical support and combat power. The remaining approximately 10 battalions are still being trained and equipped.

An additional four Interior Ministry paramilitary battalions can also take the lead in counterinsurgency operations with coalition support, according to the Pentagon. The level of U.S. or coalition support in areas like logistics, medical treatment for wounded soldiers and communications varies by battalion, the Pentagon said.

The emphasis on the Iraqi forces' progress comes as the administration continues a counterattack against critics who say it made a dishonest case for invading Iraq and then botched the occupation of the country. Mounting criticism of the administration's handling of Iraq has dragged President Bush's approval ratings to record lows and led many Republican lawmakers to fear they could lose control of the House or Senate in next year's midterm elections.


A new reliance on Iraqi security forces has its own risks. Toby Dodge, an Iraq expert at London's International Institute for Strategic Studies, said Iraq's sectarian unrest has long been exacerbated by the patchwork of armed militias operating in various parts of the country, which range from large and well-organized Shiite and Kurdish forces to loose groupings of fighters commanded by charismatic officers. He said that in recent months, however, the security forces of the Iraqi state itself have begun operating like such sectarian militias, operating under the open control of Shiite political parties and arresting or killing Sunnis believed to have links to the insurgency and others -- including at least one American journalist -- deemed hostile to the Shiite-led government.

"It's increasingly becoming a war of all against all, with no rules," he said. "The Iraqi security forces themselves are becoming just another of the players, and if they owe allegiance to anything, it's to their commanders or communities, and not remotely to the state itself."

During the U.S. assault on Tal Afar in September, for instance, American commanders requested that a specific Sunni-led Iraqi brigade be dispatched from Baghdad to help secure Sunni sections of the city after American forces passed through. Instead a Shiite commando brigade was dispatched. Shortly after the Shiite troops arrived in the majority Sunni city they appeared on local television brandishing their weapons and singing "Kill the terrorists."

"To the Sunnis who were watching it was like they were singing, 'Kill the Sunnis,"' said one U.S. officer.

The Shiite commandos proved especially difficult to control, and U.S. commanders eventually arranged for them to be sent home. Shiites in Tal Afar have continued to lobby Iraq's interior ministry to deploy additional Shiite security forces to the area, but U.S. military officials have worked to head off those requests they fear would fan sectarian hatreds in the city.

Write to Yochi J. Dreazen at yochi.dreazen@wsj.com, Greg Jaffe at greg.jaffe@wsj.com and John D. McKinnon at john.mckinnon@wsj.com