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Snuffysmith
http://www.iht.com/articles/2006/03/13/news/tehran.php News Analysis: In Iran, conciliation falls by the wayside
By Elaine Sciolino The New York Times

TUESDAY, MARCH 14, 2006

PARIS After years of trying to prevent its nuclear program from being judged in the Security Council, Iran has decided to shift course and confront the United Nations head-on.

Tehran is gambling that the 15-member Council, which plans to take up Iran's nuclear dossier for the first time this week, will be too divided to inflict meaningful punishment.

Economic sanctions against Iran, the second- largest oil producer in OPEC, could send the price of oil soaring. Military force, for the time being at least, is seen as unlikely with U.S. troops stretched thin in Iraq and Afghanistan.

So Iran's leaders have abandoned a strategy of trying to woo the world and are now saying the Security Council process can take its course.

"Let the Security Council review the dossier directly," President Mahmoud Ahmadinejad said at a news conference in January, defending his nation's decision to re-open its uranium enrichment facility in Natanz for what Tehran says are research purposes. "Since we have a clear logic and we act according to the law, we are not worried."

In Tehran on Monday, Ahmadinejad portrayed that position not as obstinate or rigid but as a reflection of strength.

"We know well that a country's backing down one iota on its undeniable rights is the same as losing everything," state television quoted Ahmadinejad as saying.

He added: "We will not bend to a few countries' threats, as their demands for giving up our nation's rights are unfair and cruel."

Ayatollah Ali Khamenei, Iran's supreme leader who once stood before the United Nations and branded it "a paper factory for issuing worthless and ineffective orders," has endorsed the strategy. Addressing leading clerics in Tehran on Thursday, he vowed to "resist any pressure and threat," adding: "If Iran quits now, the case will not be over."

Other Iranian officials have unleashed a steady stream of threats in recent days - to stop selling oil, to withdraw from the Nuclear Nonproliferation Treaty, to stop negotiating a deal with Russia on enriching uranium on Russian soil, to inflict unspecified "harm and pain" on the United States. None of them are designed to build international confidence, a key component of Iran's previous negotiating strategy.

But then, with few exceptions, the Islamic Republic has never had much use for the Security Council.

When Saddam Hussein invaded Iran in 1980, the Council did not even call for a cease-fire or the withdrawal of Iraqi troops. When Iraq used chemical weapons against Iranian soldiers later in the decade - the first verified use of chemical weapons since World War I - the council refused to impose sanctions.

Iran had only itself to blame, the Security Council seemed to say. It was seen as a renegade state that could not be trusted. It had violated international law when protesters seized the American Embassy in 1979 and held diplomats hostage for 444 days. It had continued the war against Saddam for years after he brought his soldiers home.

But for almost three years, Iran had taken whatever small conciliatory measures were necessary to keep its nuclear program off the United Nations' agenda.

Avoiding action in that forum was at the heart of Tehran's decision to open negotiations with France, Britain and Germany in 2003 and to allow inspectors from the International Atomic Energy Agency access to its nuclear sites, said Hassan Rowhani, who was replaced as Iran's chief nuclear negotiator after Ahmadinejad took office last year.

"At that time, the United States was at the height of its arrogance and our country also was not yet ready to go to the UN Security Council," Rowhani said in September to Iran's Supreme Cultural Revolution Council as he was leaving his post.

Consideration of Iran's case by the Security Council would give the United States more power over Iran's fate, reduce the influence of the Europeans and open up Iran's missile program to new scrutiny, Rowhani said.

So "the most important promise" the Europeans gave Iran "was that they would stand firm against attempts to take this case to the UN Security Council," he said.

The speech, essentially a personal defense of Rowhani's negotiating strategy after he had been fired, was published later in the autumn in his Persian-language journal, Rahbord.

Iran's strategy had been based on keeping its nuclear program secret, Rowhani said, and once that secrecy was broken by the discovery of clandestine sites in 2002, Iran became vulnerable to outside pressure and had to negotiate.

Tehran, he said in the speech, had "no choice" except to enter into an agreement with the Europeans to suspend all uranium-enrichment activities and open its nuclear facilities to inspectors.

Under an agreement forged with the Europeans in November 2004, Tehran pledged to freeze activities to make enriched uranium as long as the two sides were negotiating a long-term package of economic, political, technological and security rewards for the country.

But in a remarkable admission, Rowhani suggested in the speech that Iran had used the negotiations with the Europeans to dupe them. He boasted that while negotiations were continuing, Iran managed to master a key stage in the nuclear fuel process - the conversion of yellowcake at its plant in Isfahan.

"While we were talking with the Europeans in Tehran, we were installing equipment in parts of the facility in Isfahan, but we still had a long way to go to complete the project," he said. "In fact, by creating a calm environment, we were able to complete the work on Isfahan." As a result of the negotiations with the Europeans, he added, "We are in fact much more prepared to go to the UN Security Council."

The view that Iran is ready to take on the council is not universally shared inside Iran. While Iran's decision to continue its uranium enrichment activities is broadly defended, some Iranians have strongly criticized Tehran's confrontational line in facing down the council.

The Security Council has the authority to impose sanctions and authorize military action. But it is starting slowly.

The most that is expected - and even then the outcome is not certain - is a nonbinding statement that lists Iran's multiple failures to meet its international commitments, including its refusal to stop enriching uranium.

Still, simply being targeted by the Security Council is enough to erode international confidence in Iran, some analysts say.

"Even if political measures are not taken against us, the country's political prestige will be jeopardized," Ahmad Shirzad, a reformist politician and a former deputy told Iran's Labor News Agency last month. He added: "There will also be major effects in the economy. Investors will move their capital to safe places and there will be a brain drain from the country."

Particularly striking has been the criticism by the former president, Mohammad Khatami.

"There will be bad consequences if our case is sent to the Security Council," Khatami said last month. He added: "It will not only affect our economy. Our right to nuclear energy might also be affected." But Khatami spent his eight years as president trying to woo the world, including the United Nations.

In his first address to the United Nations' General Assembly, in 1988, Khatami quoted from the New Testament, the Koran and 13th-century Iranian poetry in proposing that the United Nations devote a year to "dialogue among civilizations."
Snuffysmith
Nuclear expert: Too late to stop Iran;

"I'm afraid that we probably are past the point where there is any meaningful alternative other than military action to stop the Iranians if they are determined to go ahead.
http://english.aljazeera.net/NR/exeres/193...E68343B14C1.htm


McCain: If Iran Gets Nukes, U.S. 'In Trouble':

"Iran may be the greatest single threat to America since the end of the Cold War,"McCain told an audience at the Southern Republican Leadership Conference in Memphis, Tenn. "If the Iranians acquire nuclear weapons, then my friends, we are in trouble.”
http://www.newsmax.com/archives/ic/2006/3/...0926.shtml?s=lh


Iran builds a secret underground complex as nuclear tensions rise:

Iran's leaders have built a secret underground emergency command centre in Teheran as they prepare for a confrontation with the West over their illicit nuclear programme, the Sunday Telegraph has been told.
http://tinyurl.com/f3hxl
Snuffysmith
March 15, 2006
In Iran, Dissenting Voices Rise on Its Leaders' Nuclear Strategy
By MICHAEL SLACKMAN
TEHRAN, March 14 — Just weeks ago, the Iranian government's combative approach toward building a nuclear program produced rare public displays of unity here. Now, while the top leaders remain resolute in their course, cracks are opening both inside and outside the circles of power over the issue.

Some people in powerful positions have begun to insist that the confrontational tactics of President Mahmoud Ahmadinejad have been backfiring, making it harder instead of easier for Iran to develop a nuclear program.

This week, the United Nations Security Council is meeting to take up the Iranian nuclear program. That referral and, perhaps more important, Iran's inability so far to win Russia's unequivocal support for its plans have empowered critics of Mr. Ahmadinejad, according to political analysts with close ties to the government.

One senior Iranian official, who asked to remain anonymous because of the delicate nature of the issue, said: "I tell you, if what they were doing was working, we would say, 'Good.' " But, he added: "For 27 years after the revolution, America wanted to get Iran to the Security Council and America failed. In less than six months, Ahmadinejad did that."

One month ago, the same official had said with a laugh that those who thought the hard-line approach was a bad choice were staying silent because it appeared to be succeeding.

As usual in Iran, there are mixed signals, and the government does not always speak with the same voice.

On Tuesday, both Mr. Ahmadinejad and the nation's supreme leader, Ayatollah Ali Khamenei, insisted in public speeches that their country would never back down. At the same time, Iranian negotiators arrived in Moscow to resume talks — at Iran's request — just days after Iran had rejected a Russian proposal to resolve the standoff.

Average Iranians do not seem uniformly confident at the prospect of being hit with United Nations sanctions.

From the streets of Tehran to the ski slopes outside the city, some people have begun to joke about the catch phrase of the government — flippantly saying, "Nuclear energy is our irrefutable right."

Reformers, whose political clout as a movement vanished after the last election, have also begun to speak out. And people with close ties to the government said high-ranking clerics had begun to give criticism of Iran's position to Ayatollah Khamenei, which the political elite sees as a seismic jolt.

"There has been no sign that they will back down," said Ahmad Zeidabady, a political analyst and journalist. "At least Mr. Khamenei has said nothing that we can interpret that there will be change in the policies."

But, he said, "There is more criticism as it is becoming more clear that this policy is not working, especially by those who were in the previous negotiating team."

There are also signs that negotiators are starting to back away, however slightly, from a bare-knuckle strategy and that those who had initially opposed the president's style — but remained silent — are beginning to feel vindicated and are starting to speak up.

A former president, Mohammad Khatami, recently publicly criticized the aggressive approach and called a return to his government's strategy of confidence-building with the west.

"The previous team now feels they were vindicated," said Nasser Hadian, a political science professor at Tehran University who is close to many members of the government. "The new team feels they have to justify their actions."

Ayatollah Khamenei, who has the final say, issued a strong defense of Iran's position on Tuesday.

"The Islamic Republic of Iran considers retreat over the nuclear issue, which is the demand of the Iranian people, as breaking the country's independence that will impose huge costs on the Iranian nation," he said.

"Peaceful use of nuclear technology is a must and is necessary for scientific growth in all fields," Ayatollah Khamenei said. "Any kind of retreat will bring a series of pressures and retreats. So, this is an irreversible path and our foreign diplomacy should defend this right courageously."

In a speech in northern Iran, Mr. Ahmadinejad called on the people to "be angry" at the pressure being put on Iran.

"Listen well," the president said to a crowd chanting "die" as they punched the air with their fists. "A nuclear program is our irrefutable right."

When Mr. Ahmadinejad took office, he embraced a decision already made by the top leadership to move toward confrontation with the West about the nuclear program. From the sidelines, Mr. Ahmadinejad's opponents remained largely silent as his political capital grew.

Iran's ability to begin uranium enrichment, and to remove the seals in January at least three nuclear facilities without any immediate consequences, was initially seen as a validation of the get-tough approach.

But one political scientist who speaks regularly with members of the Foreign Ministry said that Iran had hinged much of its strategy on winning Russia's support. The political scientist asked not to be identified so as not to compromise his relationship with people in the government.

The political scientist said some negotiators believed that by being hostile to the West they would be able to entice Moscow into making Tehran its stronghold in the Middle East. "They thought the turn east was the way forward," the person said. "That was a belief and a vision."

The person added, "They thought, 99 percent, Russia would seize the opportunity and back the Iranian leaders."

The route forward remains unclear as Iran tries to regain a sense of momentum.

There is a consensus here that Iran has many cards to play — from its influence with the Shiites in Iraq to its closer ties to Hezbollah in Lebanon, to the prospect of using oil as a weapon. But the uncertainty of appearing before the Security Council, and the prospect of sanctions, has led some here to begin to rethink the wisdom of fighting the West head-on, analysts said.

Professor Hadian said he believed that for Iran to fundamentally change course the situation for Iran would have to first grow much worse.

"There are concerns to keep the situation calm," said Mr. Zeidabady, the journalist. "We have received orders not even to have headlines saying the case has been sent to the Security Council. Although the situation is very critical, they want to pretend that everything is normal. They do not want to show the country is coming under pressure and lose their supporters."

Nazila Fathi contributed reporting for this article.



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Snuffysmith
http://today.reuters.co.uk/misc/PrinterFri...AQ-USA-IRAN.xml

U.S. general says no proof Iran behind Iraq arms
Tue Mar 14, 2006 11:21 PM GMT

By Will Dunham

WASHINGTON (Reuters) - The United States does not have proof that Iran's government is responsible for the presence of Iranian weapons and military personnel in Iraq, the top U.S. military officer said on Tuesday.

Defence Secretary Donald Rumsfeld also said the United States may slightly increase its troops in Iraq from the current 133,000 to provide more security for an upcoming Shi'ite pilgrimage amid worry about further sectarian violence.

President George W. Bush said on Monday components from Iran were being used in powerful roadside bombs used in Iraq, and Rumsfeld said last week that Iranian Revolutionary Guard personnel had been inside Iraq to stir up trouble.

Asked whether the United States has proof that Iran's government was behind these developments, Marine Corps Gen. Peter Pace, chairman of the military's Joint Chiefs of Staff, told a Pentagon briefing, "I do not, sir."

Rumsfeld said that there was evidence, which he did not specify, that Revolutionary Guard troops "have been and/or are in Iraq," and that it would be reasonable to suggest Iran's government was responsible.

"It's entirely possible there are rogue elements and they're just there on their own or they're pilgrims. Not likely," Rumsfeld added.

U.S. charges about Iranian weapons and personnel in Iraq have added to tensions between the United States and Iran over Tehran's nuclear ambitions.

DIFFICULT TO PROVE

Rumsfeld said it was difficult to prove Iranian government involvement.

"As to equipment, unless you physically see it coming in a government-sponsored vehicle or with government-sponsored troops, you can't know it," Rumsfeld said. "All you know is that you find equipment, weapons, explosives, whatever, in a country that came from the neighbouring country."

"With respect to people, it's very difficult to tie a thread precisely to the government of Iran," Rumsfeld added.

He noted, for example, that Iranian Shi'ite Muslims make pilgrimages by the thousands to Shi'ite holy places in Iraq.

Bush said on Monday, referring to improvised explosive devices, "Some of the most powerful IEDs we're seeing in Iraq today includes components that came from Iran."

Ahead of the Shi'ite religious holiday Arba'een, Rumsfeld said that Army Gen. George Casey, the top U.S. commander in Iraq, "may decide he wants to bulk up slightly for the pilgrimage." Rumsfeld did not indicate that a decision had been made or how many U.S. troops may be added.

The United States has reduced the size of its force from about 160,000 in December.

Just days before the third anniversary of the U.S.-led invasion of Iraq, Rumsfeld said that "it's clearly a very difficult situation." He argued that there were positive indicators, including Iraqi public support for democracy and U.S.-trained Iraqi government security forces taking on more responsibility for the security of their country.

Pace added: "The path to civil war is available to the Iraqi people. And the path towards freedom and representative government is available to them. And they are standing at the crossroads right now. And they're looking down both paths."

"And right now, it appears to me that, for sure, the Iraqi people want to go down the path towards prosperity and freedom," Pace added.

Asked how long Americans should expect U.S. troops to be fighting in Iraq, Rumsfeld said: "Now, the implication to your question is: do we think we're going to be there four or five years more in terms of large numbers of U.S. ground forces? And the answer is no, I don't think so."



--------------------------------------------------------------------------------

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theglobalchinese
US open to talks with Iran on Iraq Reuters
The White House said on Thursday that the United States is open to holding talks with Iran about stabilizing Iraq after the Islamic republic responded to prior offers from Washington for a dialogue. But White House spokesman Scott McClellan noted that any such talks would be confined to the Iraq issue and would be on a separate track from efforts to resolve the nuclear standoff with Iran. In November, President George W. Bush authorized his ambassador in Iraq to have talks with Iran in what would be unusual contact between two long-standing foes who are locked in a standoff over Tehran's nuclear programs. Iran initially rejected the U.S. offer for talks. But Iran changed its position on Thursday after Bush made his most explicit accusation this week that Iranian involvement in Iraq was destabilizing a country wracked by sectarian violence. McClellan said U.S. ambassador to Iraq Zalmay Khalilzad was authorized to speak with Iran about issues specifically relating to Iraq. "The other issues are separate from this issue. The nuclear issue is being discussed at the United Nations among diplomats of the Security Council. That's a separate issue from this," he added. "We previously have had discussions with Iran about issue relating to Afghanistan. But this is a very narrow mandate, dealing with issues specifically relating to Iraq," he said.
Iran Says It's Ready for Talks With the US on Iraq Bloomberg
Report: Iran would talk with US about Iraq CNN International
ABC News - Globe and Mail - Monsters and Critics.com - Politics.co.uk - all 346 related »
Snuffysmith
PROLIFERATION NEWS
Carnegie Endowment for International Peace
March 16, 2006

White House Puts Iran at Top of List Of Threats to U.S.
(Carla Anne Robbins and Neil King Jr., Wall Street Journal)

Thursday, March 16
A new White House national-security strategy identifies Iran as the "single country" that may pose the biggest danger to the U.S. and reaffirms pre-emptive military action as a central tenet of U.S. security policy. That language could heighten nervousness that the Bush administration will ultimately resort to force to stop Iran from acquiring nuclear weapons.

The report, which President Bush is required by statute to make to Congress, endorses the now-suspended European negotiations with Iran, but also warns of "confrontation" if that effort should fail. "Our strong preference...is to address proliferation concerns through international diplomacy," the report continues. But it also makes clear that the U.S. still reserves the right to pre-emptively attack enemies, especially if they are armed with weapons of mass destruction. "The place of pre-emption in our national-security strategy remains the same."

Europe Watches from the Galleries
(Carnegie Analysis, Jill Marie Parillo)

Thurday, March 16
Unlike the United States, European Union (EU) member states do not have an EU legal obstacle to surmount in order to renew nuclear trade with India. But before any EU nation embarks on trade, it will need the US Congress to act.

Currently, it is illegal for the United States to trade nuclear technology or material to India. The Atomic Energy Act (AEA) of 1954 stipulates that receiving countries must have full scope safeguard agreements (all their nuclear facilities under inspections) with the International Atomic Energy Agency (IAEA). India now plans to put 14 of its 22 current and planned nuclear power reactors under safeguards, leaving 8 power reactors free to produce plutonium for nuclear weapons.

The European Union has similar export laws to the United States, but none that require full scope safeguards as a condition of supply. The only thing that legally binds EU states is the Nuclear Supplier’s Group (NSG) Full-Scope Safeguard Policy adopted in 1992 (and originally championed by the United States). This policy requires full scope safeguards as a condition of supply. It was subsequently endorsed at the 1995 Non-Proliferation Treaty (NPT) Review and Extension Conference and reaffirmed at the 2000 NPT Review Conference.



In Iran, Dissenting Voices Rise on Its Leaders' Nuclear Strategy
(Michael Slackman, New York Times)

Wednesday, March 15
Just weeks ago, the Iranian government's combative approach toward building a nuclear program produced rare public displays of unity here. Now, while the top leaders remain resolute in their course, cracks are opening both inside and outside the circles of power over the issue.

Some people in powerful positions have begun to insist that the confrontational tactics of President Mahmoud Ahmadinejad have been backfiring, making it harder instead of easier for Iran to develop a nuclear program.

This week, the United Nations Security Council is meeting to take up the Iranian nuclear program. That referral and, perhaps more important, Iran's inability so far to win Russia's unequivocal support for its plans have empowered critics of Mr. Ahmadinejad, according to political analysts with close ties to the government.



Text on Iran's Nuclear Work Is Under Study by U.N. Council
(Warren Hoge, New York Times)

Wednesday, March 15
Security Council members got their first look at a proposed statement on Iran's nuclear program on Tuesday, but the session failed to settle key differences, and more meetings were scheduled for Thursday and Friday. The Council received the dossier on Iran last week from the International Atomic Energy Agency, the nuclear monitor for the United Nations, based in Vienna.

The action satisfied a longtime goal of Washington's to bring the question before the Council, and its five permanent members: Britain, China, France, Russia and the United States. The United States and its European partners now want a statement adopted by consensus, issued in the name of the Council president, calling on Iran to suspend activities that the West believes are concealing a nuclear arms program.

The principal dispute so far appears to center on the reluctance of China and Russia to place the Council, instead of the International Atomic Energy Agency, known as the I.A.E.A, in judgment of Tehran. Secretary of State Condoleezza Rice, speaking during a visit to Indonesia, said she was unconcerned about the reported rebuff by China and Russia. "I'm content to let diplomacy continue for a while before we determine what the outcome is going to be," Ms. Rice said. "I'm quite certain we'll find an appropriate vehicle for expressing the international community's solidarity."



Click here [or visit http://www.carnegieendowment.org/resources...?fa=newsletters] to go to the Newsletter signup page to subscribe or unsubscribe. For questions and comments, please contact proliferationnews@carnegieendowment.org.
Snuffysmith
- US Rules Out Direct Talks With Iran On Nuclear Standoff
http://www.spacewar.com/reports/US_Rules_O...r_Standoff.html

Washington (AFP) Mar 17, 2006 - The United States on Thursday ruled out any direct discussions with Iran on the nuclear standoff after the Islamic republic offered to negotiate with Washington on another thorny subject -- Iraq.

- US Strategic Review Reaffirms Preemption, Calls Iran Top Danger
http://www.spacewar.com/reports/US_Strateg...Top_Danger.html
Snuffysmith
Nuclear Bunker Buster Bombs against Iran?: This Way Lies Madness

By Stephen M. Osborn

The “bunker buster” is a cute sounding name for a nuclear horror. Air bursts are horrible enough, doing incredible destruction through heat, shock and high initial radiation. The fallout from an air burst is registered around the world. A surface or subsurface burst is even deadlier and more long lasting.
http://informationclearinghouse.info/article12363.htm
Snuffysmith
Rice steps up rhetoric against ‘troubled state’ Iran:

Condoleezza Rice on Thursday raised the diplomatic temperature over the nuclear stand-off with Iran, accusing the country of lying about its activities and again calling it a “central banker to terrorism”.
http://tinyurl.com/s5akp

===
US restates strike-first policy, warns Iran :

Making no apologies for the war in Iraq, the United States reaffirmed its strike-first policy of preemption and warned that Iran may pose the biggest threat to US national security.
http://informationclearinghouse.info/article12362.htm

===
Video: John Bolton Interview:

Will the U.S. attack Iran?
http://www.bbc.co.uk/newsa/n5ctrl/progs/06...bolton13mar.ram

===
Phyllis Bennis: New War Dangers: Iran, the U.S. and Nukes in the Middle East:

The Bush administration's rapid escalation of anti-Iran rhetoric in the last few months should not be dismissed as posturing.
http://www.ips-dc.org/comment/Bennis/tp39newwar.htm

===
Launch of Iranian oil trading hits wall: :

Despite repeated reports over the past 18 months or so that the planned bourse would finally open for business on March 20, 2006 -- and go head to head with the New York Mercantile Exchange and the ICE Futures Exchange in London -- the start date has been postponed by at least several months and maybe more than a year.
http://informationclearinghouse.info/article12356.htm

===
America's nuclear hypocrisy undermines its stance on Iran:

Even as he was telling Iran not to produce nuclear weapons, President Bush was urging Congress to pay for a new nuclear weapon designed to destroy underground military facilities
http://tinyurl.com/mybmw
Snuffysmith
March 17, 2006
Op-Ed Columnist
America's Iran Policy: Iraq
By THOMAS L. FRIEDMAN
The Bush White House issued its latest national security strategy doctrine yesterday, and it identifies Iran as the "single country" that poses the greatest danger to the U.S. today. The report, however, doesn't say what exactly we should do about Iran. But here's what I think: The most frightening, scary, terrifying thing we could do to Iran today — short of an outright attack — is to get out of Iraq.

The second most frightening, scary, terrifying thing we could do to Iran is to succeed in Iraq. The worst thing we could do, though, the thing that would make Iranians the happiest, is to continue bleeding in Iraq and baby-sitting a stalemate there. In sum, since we are not going to invade Iran, the best way we can influence it is by what we do in Iraq.

Let me explain: I am not in favor of withdrawing from Iraq now — not while there is still a chance for a decent outcome. But if we did pull out of Iraq, it would make life incredibly complicated for Tehran. There's a lot of cheap talk that Iran was the big winner from the U.S. invasion of Iraq. Don't be so sure. Hundreds of years of Mesopotamian history teach us that Arabs and Persians do not play well together.

Right now, the natural antipathy and competition between Iraqi Arabs and Iranian Persians — even though large numbers of both are Shiite Muslims — have been muted because of the U.S. occupation of Iraq. Both sides can focus their anger on us.

But as soon as we leave — and you can bet the house and kids on this — the natural rivalry between Iraqi Arabs and Iranian Persians will surface. Culture, history and nationalism matter. Iran and Iraq did not fight a war for eight years by mistake, or just because Saddam was in power. Once America is out of Iraq, it will not be a winning political strategy for any Iraqi politician to be known as "pro-Iranian" or, even worse, as an instrument of Tehran's.

If we were out of Iraq today and Iran had to manage the chaos there, on its border, it would be a huge, energy-draining problem for Tehran. Iraqis, in case you haven't noticed, have a rather violent, independent streak. Anyone who thinks Iraq is some overripe fruit that will fall into Iran's lap as soon as we leave, and obediently stay there, doesn't know Iraq or Iran. Iraqi Arab Shiites did not wait for centuries to rule Iraq in order to turn it over to Iranian Persian Shiites. Not a chance.

In their superb, must-read, military history of the U.S. invasion of Iraq, "Cobra II," Michael Gordon and Bernard Trainor explain why Saddam always wanted to keep the world in doubt about his W.M.D., even when his cupboard was bare: it was to deter Iran. Remember, Iraq and Iran each used poison gas against the other in their war. The last thing Saddam wanted was to let Iran know he was out of gas. Gordon and Trainor quote the Iraqi military intelligence director as telling U.S. interrogators after the war: "What did we think was going to happen with the coalition invasion? We were more interested in Turkey and Iran." All geopolitics is local.

Also, if the U.S. were out of Iraq and the U.S. attacked Iran's nuclear facilities with airstrikes, Iran would not be able to retaliate with its missiles against any large concentrations of U.S. military forces nearby. That, too, would give the U.S. a freer hand to deal with Iran's nuclear threat.

The only thing more frightening to the Iranians than the U.S. leaving Iraq, would be — and this is my preference — the U.S. succeeding in Iraq. Iraq has already held two elections in which anyone could run and vote. This stands in sharp contrast with the elections in Iran, where only conservatives approved by the ayatollahs can run. Iraq has a flourishing free press. Iran's insecure ayatollahs have shut down their critics.

The more Iraqi Shiites are empowered in a democratic Iraq, the more Iranian Shiites will ask why they don't have the same rights as the folks next door. Also, the major spiritual centers of Shiite Islam aren't in Iran, but in Iraq. The more the Iraqi Shiite religious centers are revived — with their particular Iraqi Shiite strain, represented by Grand Ayatollah Ali al-Sistani, which says clerics should stay out of politics — the more the Iranian mullahs will see their influence diminished.

So getting out of Iraq would be a good anti-Iran strategy. Succeeding in Iraq would be even better. The one strategy that won't work for us, but would be ideal for Iran, would be for U.S. troops to remain in Iraq as bleeding sitting ducks, baby-sitting a stalemate and absorbing everyone's wrath — including the wrath that would naturally be directed at Tehran.

Paul Krugman is on vacation.



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theglobalchinese
Iran Makes Overtures on Talks As American Leader Threatens New York Sun
Against the backdrop of the White House's most explicit threat to date against Iran, the country's top nuclear negotiator yesterday announced that his country would have limited talks concerning Iraq. Following a closed session of the Majlis legislature yesterday, the chief of Iran's powerful national security committee, Ali Larijani, said the new talks would be "to resolve Iraqi issues and help establishment of an independent and free government in Iraq." The decision to acknowledge an offer of three months to meet with America's ambassador in Baghdad came on the same day the White House published a national security strategy that said diplomatic efforts to persuade Iran to verify that it is not building nuclear weapons must succeed "if confrontation is to be avoided." That phrase, despite its ambiguity, is more explicit than the president's usual formulation when queried on the possibility of a military strike to disarm the Islamic Republic. For nearly two years, President Bush has said, "all options are on the table." However he has not threatened those options if European-led negotiations fail with Iran. The statement from Mr. Larijani also marks the first time Iran has, at least publicly, acknowledged diplomatic meetings with American officials. The pending talks, however, will not be the first. The American ambassador to Iraq, Zalmay Khalilizad, has met on numerous occasions since 2001 with Iranian envoys in multilateral sessions. For example, he discussed rebuilding Afghanistan with the Iranians at the 2001 Bonn Conference. In 2002 and 2003, Mr. Khalilzad met with Iranian counterparts in Europe to discuss Iraq. Both the Clinton administration and that of the president's father sent diplomatic messages through third parties to Iran regarding Iran. Yesterday the White House spokesman, Scott McClellan, as well as National Security Adviser Stephen Hadley stressed the new Iran-American talks would be limited to Iraq. But some outside experts see this as thin diplomatic cover. "It will be quite customary in diplomatic discussion for the nuclear issue to come up as part of the Iraq issue," the deputy director of the Washington Institute for Near East Policy, Patrick Clawson, said yesterday. "The Iranians are not going to walk into talks about nuclear matters, but they can repackage that as an Iraq matter." Earlier this month, efforts to persuade Iran to end its uranium enrichment failed. Even the Russians eventually dropped their last-ditch negotiations after Iran demanded the right to continue to make nuclear fuel on an experimental basis. Mr. Larijani's acknowledgement of the American offer is also in contrast to his country's supreme leader and president, who both have gone so far as to warn Europe not to follow America's lead diplomatically. The National Security Strategy released yesterday, a congressionally mandated report drafted by the White House every four years, says that America's concerns with Iran do not end with the nuclear program it kept hidden from the International Atomic Energy Agency until 2003. "The Iranian regime sponsors terrorism; threatens Israel; seeks to thwart Middle East peace; disrupts democracy in Iraq; and denies the aspirations of its people for freedom," it says. "The nuclear issue and our other concerns can ultimately be resolved only if the Iranian regime makes the strategic decision to change these policies, open up its political system, and afford freedom to its people." Today marks the date when Iranian opposition leader Akbar Ganji will have served out his five-year sentence in Evin Prison. As The New York Sun reported yesterday, it appears that he will remain in jail. A former White House speechwriter and scholar at the American Enterprise Institute, David Frum, asked how important the new strategy was. "One of the things I am left wondering is how much these documents mean anything," he said yesterday. "The strange thing about this administration is that it seems to proceed on two different tracks, the rhetoric and the policy. It's not that they have nothing to do with one another, but that the relationship is unpredictable." One area where the strategy appears to be out of sync with the policy is in the area of spreading democracy. "To end tyranny we must summon the collective outrage of the free world against the oppression, abuse, and impoverishment that tyrannical regimes inflict on their people, and summon their collective action against the dangers tyrants pose to the security of the world," it says. Yet America's diplomats and State Department have been muted in their criticism of unfree allies, particularly in Egypt and Saudi Arabia. Indeed, President Mubarak in Cairo has bragged that Secretary of State Rice has dropped pressure to liberalize his country, and the embassy here has not responded. While Saudi Arabia last year held very restrictive municipal elections, America has done little to pressure the family-owned state to respect human rights and the rule of law, according to the chief researcher on the country for Human Rights Watch, Christopher Wilcke. "We don't know where the human rights agenda is for Saudi Arabia," Mr. Wilcke said yesterday. "We know there is a reform agenda and it's pretty useless to go forward with reform without human rights."
Tehran willing to talk with US about Iraq New Straits Times
'Iran wants introspection & respect from US' IranMania News
Houston Chronicle - Boston Globe - theTrumpet.com - ABC News - all 711 related »
theglobalchinese
US accuses Iran of "unhelpful activities" in Iraq Yahoo! NEWS
U.S. officials in Iraq on Friday again accused Iran of meddling in its neighbor's internal affairs, saying the Islamic Republic was carrying out "unhelpful activities" there. A U.S. embassy statement said Washington was "concerned about unhelpful Iranian activities in Iraq. These concerns are well known and we have talked about them." The statement was issued one day after Iran said it accepted a proposal by a leading Iraqi Shi'ite leader to open a dialogue with the United States on Iraq. Also on Thursday, U.S. Secretary of State Condoleezza Rice said she believed U.S. talks with Iran on stabilizing Iraq would be "useful." Iranian officials had previously said Tehran was not interested in discussions before U.S. troops pulled out of Iraq. The United States, which is leading diplomatic efforts to isolate Iran over its nuclear ambitions, accuses Iran of contributing to instability in Iraq. Iran denies the charges. Ali Larijani, secretary of Iran's Supreme National Security Council, said Tehran accepted "the proposal to help resolve the problems in Iraq and establish an independent government there." But the embassy statement responding to his comments said: "The future of Iraq will not be decided by the United States, Iran or any other country. Iraqis will decide the future of Iraq. It noted U.S. envoy Zalmay Khalilzad had been authorized by the White House to enter into talks with Iran on the issue. Larijani reiterated on Friday that Iran favored an end to Iraq's occupation by U.S.-led forces as a step toward Iraq's full sovereignty. "Iran's motivation is to help establishment of permanent security in Iraq and get out of suppression by the occupiers," the official IRNA news agency quoted Larijani as saying. "We insist to have transparent talks (with Washington) and reiterate once again that we would do whatever needed to aid the sovereign Iraqi government."
Snuffysmith
http://www.atimes.com/atimes/Middle_East/HC18Ak05.html

THE ROVING EYE
Irreversible Iranians
By Pepe Escobar

"And if you are angry with us, then all I can tell you is to keep angry and die from this anger."
- Iranian President Mahmud Ahmadinejad, March 14

TEHRAN - What was an open secret is now official: the Bush administration is after regime change in Iran - or "resistance to the theocracy", as some elegantly put it. So how does the theocracy in question feel about it?

They don't care.

News of the "regime change" option [1] came only a few days after US President George W Bush had declared Iran "a grave national security concern" - prompting Iranian clerics in their Friday mass prayers to denounce Bush's use of the nuclear issue as a weapon of regime change.

Hamid Reza-Asafi, the Iranian Foreign Ministry spokesman, a calm and ponderous man not devoid of a sense of humor, has had to perform quite a few somersaults these past few days.

Informally, businessmen living in north Tehran - its "Upper East Side" filled with condos and satellite dishes, somewhat Westernized and boasting a stream of underground parties soaked in good scotch - swear it does not matter what the ministry says: the ultimate arbiter on the nuclear row - and many other rows - is Supreme Leader Ayatollah Ali Khamenei. Anyway, it's up to the Foreign Ministry to convey the Iranian position to global public opinion.

But something is not quite right. The press conferences at the crowded, cramped, rectangular room in the ministry building in downtown Tehran are basically an Iranian affair. They are always delivered in Farsi - and subject to misunderstanding when translated. The Western foreign media are virtually absent, apart from British Broadcasting Corp, Reuters and Associated Press cameras and microphones.

There's no concerted effort to try to convey the Iranian point of view to public opinion in America and Europe, even now, as Iran's case sits with the United Nations Security Council, waiting to see what action the council will take.

Iranians always refer to their nuclear stance as "logical" - and to the US and European stance as "illogical". But suggestions that the Iranian point of view and its multi-layered argument be delivered in a daily press conference, in English, directed to global public opinion, are brushed aside.

Asafi does the best he can. Even an official at the Ministry of Culture and Islamic Guidance said that "the situation changes all the time, and very few people know what really is being negotiated".

On Sunday, Asefi said that negotiations with Russia over a possible compromise on Iran's nuclear program, that Iran be allowed to conduct limited research and uranium-enriching activities on its own soil, had come to a dead end.

But a fresh round started on Monday. Then on Wednesday Asefi said that Iran was (again) talking to everyone, the Russians and the Europeans. That evening it emerged, via Supreme National Security Council spokesman Hossein Entezami, that Iranian-Russian negotiations in Moscow had been "successful" - but no details were provided.

As for the Europeans, Asefi would not name which countries were talking to Iran. A Western diplomat from one of the EU-3 (Germany, France and Britain - the three countries involved in earlier negotiations with Iran) in Tehran says it's most definitely Germany, as relations with Britain and France have considerably soured the past few months.

The secretary of the Expediency Council, Mohsen Rezaei, confirmed that the Iranians were having close talks with the Germans. He said he had met with the German ambassador in Tehran, Baron Paul von Maltzahn, and they had agreed that the nuclear issue must be solved within the International Atomic Energy Agency, and not the Security Council.

There's a possibility Italy is also involved, as the Italians, who want to invest heavily in Iran, had always complained they were not included in the EU-3 negotiating team.

With the US "regime change" program now fully on the table, the official rhetoric is more than ever in sync. Ahmadinejad, currently touring his country to adoring crowds - it's the chador-clad women who do the screaming - said that "the technology to produce nuclear fuel today is in the hands of the youth of this land and no power can take it back from us".

Practically in tune, Energy Minister Parviz Fattah announced that Iran would start building its first indigenous nuclear power plant in the next six months. This is part and parcel of the Iranian leadership's argument that the country needs nuclear power to generate electricity; its current fuel resources are not up to the task.

Finance Minister Davoud Danesh-Jaafari said, "I'm not worried about sanctions. It is unlikely that the Europeans decide on sanctions against us, but even if that is the case, it would rather harm them." According to the minister, Iran has put aside almost US$20 billion from its Oil Stabilization Fund in case it has to face sanctions imposed by the UN, or countries acting unilaterally.

He complains that up to eight international financial institutions - including the Union Bank of Switzerland (UBS), Credit Suisse and ABN Amro - have been restricting Iran's dollar transactions. Nobody in Tehran can actually evaluate the amount of Iran's foreign holdings; the figure goes from a minimum of $25 billion to as much as $600 billion, which would be held mostly by the Iranian diaspora.

The most important point was inevitably made by Khamenei, who said the civil nuclear program was "irreversible". There will be no retreat; that would mean "breaking the country's independence". To drive the point not home but abroad, Khamenei summoned all Iranian ambassadors across the world for a special briefing.

When the Supreme Leader says that "the use of nuclear technology is a national obligation and demand", everyone listens. Lily Sadeghi, a BBC producer, said the response varied from region to region, and between peasants and urban intellectuals.

"But when you go to the countryside, they just repeat 'we need nuclear power' like a slogan. They are not aware of the implications or the consequences. The government does not explain it to them. So yes, the nuclear program is popular, but very few people know what it actually means," said Sadeghi.

In this sense, the US strategy of trying to "separate the [Iranian] people from the regime" seems doomed to failure. Nationalist fervor regarding Iran's nuclear rights is at a peak - and cannily manipulated by the government.

Moreover, even the average Iranian is an avid analyst of Iraq's political situation. For many, US Secretary of State Condoleezza Rice saying, "We do not have a problem with the Iranian people; we want the Iranian people to be free", reeks of the 2002 mantra, "We do not have a problem with the Iraqi people."

Iranians know how the "Iraqi people", jobless, insecure to death and without water or electricity, are mired in a sorry wasteland three years after the US-led invasion.

By proclaiming the nuclear program "irreversible", the Supreme Leader might be thought to be referring to the Islamic Republic's regime as well.

Note
1. See Inside the US's regime-change school, Asia Times Online, March 14.

(Copyright 2006 Asia Times Online Ltd. All rights reserved. Please contact us about sales, syndication and republishing
Snuffysmith
Iran links Britain to shooting of 21 officials :

Iran accused Britain of trying to stir religious and ethnic unrest in its eastern border region yesterday after armed rebels ambushed a party of government officials and killed 21.
http://www.guardian.co.uk/international/st...1733655,00.html

===
China requires IAEA report on Iran at Security Council :

China backed by Russia have argued that the IAEA chief should first report to his 35-nation board, which would diminish the role of the UN Security Council.
http://www.irna.ir/en/news/view/menu-234/0...84704193121.htm

===
Britain breaks with the US over Iran:

Britain has told the United States that it will not take part in any armed action against Iran’s nuclear sites, according to diplomatic sources in London. Already facing huge public criticism for his participation in the Iraq war, Prime Minister Tony Blair is seeking to distance himself from America’s belligerent rhetoric towards Iran.
http://www.jang.com.pk/thenews/mar2006-dai...06/world/w3.htm
Snuffysmith
Iran Reformists Urge Nuclear Freeze
http://www.spacewar.com/reports/Iran_Refor...ear_Freeze.html

Tehran (AFP) Mar 20, 2006 - Iran's largest reformist party called on Sunday for dialogue with the United States and a freeze on sensitive nuclear work to head off an escalating crisis with the international community.
Snuffysmith
http://www.tompaine.com/articles/2006/03/2...ime_to_leak.php
Iran: Time To Leak
Katharine Gun
March 20, 2006


Katherine Gun was a translator at the Britain's communications spy agency, General Communications Headquarters. In 2002, she leaked a top-secret memo to a British newspaper, revealing the U.S. was spying on U.N. Security Council members before their vote on the Iraq war.

Where are the whistleblowers about Iran?

It is exactly three years since the United States and Great Britain invaded Iraq, and a little over three years since Martin Bright and his colleagues at the London Observer quietly tested the veracity of an e-mail passed to them anonymously, whilst I nervously waited to see if the e-mail I leaked would appear in a newspaper. All this for the purpose of slowing down, if not derailing, a war that many felt was being rushed into by gung-ho politicians Bush and Blair.

Looking back, we have an ever-clearer picture of what was going on behind the scenes. Since my leak, there have been more; all because civil servants are disgusted by the manipulation of truth, even outright lies. Yet, here we are, three years on, with all the knowledge we have about the lack of WMD in Iraq, about the intent on regime change all along, about the lives destroyed, the untold misery of thousands, the renditions, torture, secret prisons and beatings—and still we remain silent about U.S. intentions toward Iran. Do we believe that the Bush administration is too bogged down in Iraq and Afghanistan to dare go anywhere near Iran? Or do we just not care about the mini-nukes, so called low-yield, ground-penetrating nuclear bombs that Bush and his advisers are ready to unleash on its next Middle East target? Even if Bush does not declare all-out war on Iran, the bombing of key installations, with or without a nuclear payload, is an act of aggression and threatens to plunge an already angered and turbulent Middle East into further chaos.

Iran may be saber-rattling, it may even have an extremist government, but so does North Korea, yet we choose the diplomatic route with them always. Of course, North Korea doesn’t have that precious commodity, oil. Iran is surrounded by nuclear powers, no wonder she twitches nervously. Little mention is made of India, Pakistan, China or Israel; these countries can arm themselves to the hilt, but it is absolutely out of the question for Iran to possess sources of nuclear energy, let alone means to defend herself.

We must face facts; nuclear nonproliferation as a practical solution is defunct and useless. A blind eye is turned to those we call friends, whilst our foes face the threat of war. A true solution would be gradual decommissioning of all nuclear weapons globally, so why is that never advocated by the leaders of our ‘peace-loving’ nations? How ironic is it that the solution to Iran’s nuclear ambition is the threat of nuclear weapons? Since when did two wrongs make a right?

Truth telling and whistle blowing are crucial after a war as ill advised as Iraq—at least it allows us to piece together the facts—but it’s too late to save lives. Where are the memos and emails about Iran now?

I urge those in a position to do so to disclose information which relates to this planned aggression; legal advice, meetings between the White House and other intelligence agencies, assessments of Iran’s threat level (or better yet, evidence that assessments have been altered), troop deployments and army notifications. Don’t let ‘the intelligence and the facts be fixed around the policy ’ this time.

Such government activities are not paper-free endeavors. It is not unreasonable speculation to assume that documents are being drafted now or already exist. As the political momentum builds towards a military ‘solution’, it would be wrong to wait until bombs have fallen on Iran and families destroyed before finally informing the public.

I was asked recently about how I chose between the public interest and the national interest when I made my disclosure. I believe there was no choice, because in essence, the two are the same. The Iraq war has cost the United States and Great Britain dearly, in both financial and human terms. It has cost us credibility around the world. Not only does the majority of world opinion believe the invasion of Iraq was illegal; it also sees us, through the medium of video footage, acting aggressively and cruelly during the occupation of Iraq. Surely, avoiding all of the above would have been in the public and national interest. As Vietnam War whistleblower Dan Ellsberg said, “Like so many others, I put personal loyalty to the president above all else—above loyalty to the Constitution and above obligation to the law, to truth, to Americans, and to humankind. I was wrong.” Don’t put your loyalty above truth and the law; help us avoid this unnecessary evil.

Five years into the 21st century and there has been little but conflict and destruction. Is this how we envisaged the new millennium? Is this the future we want for our children, one of fear and conflict? It is time to turn the course of events and start building a new consensus, a consensus of peace and dialogue, of truth and understanding. We cannot and must not rely on others to speak truth to power. There are many brave and honest individuals working for the U.S. and U.K. governments. This message is directed to you. Look at the enormous deficit your government has created, the billions of dollars used to dominate countries in the Middle East, would this money not have been better spent on education, health, communities and the environment? I urge you to contact the National Security Whistleblowers Association in the United States or other alternative media organizations such as TomPaine.com. Know that you are not alone.


© 2006 TomPaine.com ( A Project of The Institute for America's Future ) | Privacy Policy | Contact Us | About Us |
theglobalchinese
Envoys try to break Iran impasse Yahoo! NEWS
Senior foreign affairs officials from the five veto-holding
U.N. Security Council powers and Germany meet on Monday in an effort to break the impasse over reining in Iran's nuclear ambitions. The session, designed to discuss future strategy on Iran, comes as the Council has been unable for nearly two weeks to issue a statement telling Iran to stop uranium-enrichment efforts the West believes are a cover for bomb making. While a majority of the 15-nation Security Council backs the United States, Britain and France, permanent council members Russia and China distrust any language they feel will lead to sanctions and diminish the role of the International Atomic Energy Agency in Vienna. The draft statement does not threaten punitive measures. Monday afternoon's meeting includes officials from the five permanent members as well as Germany, part of a European trio negotiating on Iran. In Washington, a U.S. official said, "The talks are about trying to make Russia and China comfortable." "We and the Europeans will be letting them know war is not about to break out, sanctions are not about to be imposed -- that what we are asking for is just a presidential statement to pressure Iran," said the official, who asked not to be named because he was discussing private negotiations. British Foreign Secretary Jack Straw told reporters in Brussels the six nations would discuss "how we take forward the draft of a presidential statement, and I hope we can get agreement." The full 15-member council meets again on Tuesday. Both Russia and China have objected to a section of the draft setting a two-week deadline for the IAEA to report whether Tehran has stopped enrichment activities, saying it is too short. But France's U.N. ambassador, Jean-Marc de la Sabliere, made clear it could be lengthened if the statement were adopted this week. China's U.N. ambassador, Wang Guangya, suggested four or six weeks and Russia indicated June might be a better date.

COMPROMISE
Wang also said he offered a compromise that Mohamed ElBaradei, director general of the IAEA, would submit a progress report on Iran to the Security Council and the IAEA at the same time. This provision is included in a revised text distributed by the Western powers on Friday. Moscow is still wary of involvement by the Security Council, which can impose sanctions, fearing threats might escalate and prompt Iran to cut all contact with the IAEA. Russia's U.N. ambassador, Andrei Denisov, told reporters the IAEA should "pilot the process" and the Security Council should be "informed." Under a November 2004 agreement with Britain, France and Germany, negotiators for the European Union, Iran agreed to freeze any uranium conversion, enrichment and reprocessing activities in return for economic and political rewards. Before any incentives materialized, Iran restarted uranium conversion in August. In February, Tehran began tests on enriching uranium. The IAEA board agreed to report the issue to the Security Council, which received the dossier on March 8. Straw was attending a meeting of European Union foreign ministers, who issued a statement expressing "deep concern" at Iran's failure to cooperate fully with the IAEA. But they said the EU would "keep all its diplomatic options under close review and will calibrate its approach in the light of Iranian declarations and actions."
By Evelyn Leopold
Snuffysmith
Iranian police kill 10 'bandits' near Afghan border:

"On Saturday evening, some armed bandits and agents who were trying to enter the country and create insecurity were spotted by... border troops," a police commander, Eskandar Momeni, was quoted as saying in the report late Sunday.
http://www.thedailystar.net/2006/03/21/d60321130695.htm

===
War pimp alert: Iran set to step up enrichment:

"Iran is on the verge of operating a 164-centrifuge cascade with UF6 (uranium hexafluoride gas)," a Western diplomat said, referring to machines arrayed in series, known as cascades, used to produce fuel for nuclear power reactors or material for the explosive core of an atom bomb.
http://www.news.com.au/story/0,10117,18546583-23109,00.html

===
Iran: Time To Leak:

Where are the whistleblowers about Iran?
http://www.tompaine.com/articles/2006/03/2...ime_to_leak.php

===
Who is the rogue state really?:

Iran is not guilty of abdicating or reneging on its obligations as a signatory to the Nuclear Non-proliferation Treaty (NPT). Under the terms of that treaty, Iran has an inalienable right to develop research, production, and use of nuclear energy for peaceful purposes without discrimination.
http://informationclearinghouse.info/article12425.htm
Snuffysmith
- No One Can Take Away Iran's Nuclear Know-How: President
http://www.spacewar.com/reports/No_One_Can..._President.html

Tehran (AFP) Mar 21, 2006 - Iranian President Mahmoud Ahmadinejad vowed Monday that "no one can take back" the Islamic republic's nuclear technology, in a televised address to mark Iranian New Year. "Nuclear technology is not something we obtained easily, or something someone gave us so they could take it back; no one can take it back," he said.

- Nukes Overshadow US-Iran Talks
http://www.spacewar.com/reports/Nukes_Over...Iran_Talks.html

- Iran And The Nuclear Standoff
http://www.spacewar.com/reports/Iran_And_T...r_Standoff.html
Snuffysmith
http://www.atimes.com/atimes/Middle_East/HC22Ak01.html
THE ROVING EYE
A frenzied Persian new year
By Pepe Escobar

TEHRAN - March 20 was to have been the day that Iran was attacked by either the United States or Israel, according to countless doomsday predictions. The fateful date has come and gone, and there has been no replay of "shock and awe".

March 20 was also meant to see the inauguration of the Kish oil bourse, on which Iranian oil will be traded in a basket of currencies, including the euro. But because of "technical glitches", according to the Ministry of Petroleum, the launch has been postponed, with no new date set.

No shock and awe, no oil-bourse shock. Iran, anyway, has come to a standstill. Not because of geopolitics; it is just reconnecting with its rich, pre-Islamic history.

Hardly anything has moved in Iran since Monday night, except a reduced staff at the Ministry of Foreign Relations and a special cell at the Supreme National Security Council (SNSC) monitoring the nuclear debate at the United Nations Security Council, where members can't agree on how to respond to Iran.

It's ironic that this heated debate in New York happens exactly at the onset of Nauroz (literally "new day"), the Persian New Year. This is not only a celebration for all Iranians, but for all the Iranian world, from the Caucasus to Central Asia, and for Kurds in Turkey, Syria and Iraq as well. Fifteen centuries after the arrival of Islam, the rhythm of time remains influenced by Zoroastrianism. And more than 27 years after the Islamic Revolution, clerics gave up fighting with tradition; this past weekend they were all hitting the shops buying gifts and sweets.

Nauroz in Iran is the beginning of the legal year in the solar calendar. Practically the whole country shuts down, in many cases until early April. Everybody buys new clothes and cleans up his house. Families gather around a ritual table where seven fruits, dishes or objects with names starting with an "s" are disposed; vegetables are always present, or lentils, which should be thrown into a waterway on the 13th day of the new year. On this particular day, every family sets out in a sort of massive national picnic.

The destabilization game
Just before Nauroz, the political temperature was no picnic; it was as feverish as the shopping. A terrorist attack convulsed one of Iran's sensitive borders, the desert province of Sistan-Balochistan, with at least 23 dead, six injured and 12 missing.

Journalist Akbar Ganji, a freedom-of-expression icon, was released after six years in prison and quite a few hunger strikes - although the official Islamic Republic News Agency (IRNA) was reporting that would only happen at the end of the month. This past Saturday, the combative newspaper Shargh printed a magnificent photo on its front page of an emaciated Ganji smiling alongside his wife. Ganji is not making any political comments; he said he could be again thrown in jail. His early release was later spun as a "compassionate leave", so he could be with his family for Nauroz.

Foreign Minister Manouchehr Mottaki, trying to defuse the nuclear tension, was saying that the government expected "fair, logical and comprehensive decisions" from the Security Council over its handling of Iran's nuclear dossier, while SNSC Secretary Ali Larijani acknowledged Iraq's call, via the leader of the Supreme Council for the Islamic Revolution in Iraq (SCIRI), Abdul Aziz al-Hakim, of a high-level dialogue between the US and Iran on Iraq.

Larijani, along with his brother, are extremely influential on high-level policy and close to Supreme Leader Ayatollah Ali Khamenei. Larijani is like an anointed prince, although he lacked the charisma to muster enough votes and win last summer's presidential elections. But in matters of supreme national interest, he wields more power than President Mahmud Ahmadinejad.

The proposed Iran-US talks on Iraq have done nothing to erase suspicions on both sides. In diplomatic and government circles in Tehran, the chronology making the rounds is telling. Afghan-born Zalmay Khalilzad, the powerful US ambassador in Iraq, wrote a letter to Iranian high-level officials requesting a negotiation. The letter was written in Persian; Khalilzad speaks Dari, a Persian dialect. Only afterward, SCIRI leader Hakim publicly invited Iran to hold talks with the Americans.

The point is that Iran does not need to destabilize Iraq or to perform an "unhelpful role" - as the White House, the Pentagon and the State Department claim non-stop. Iranian influence remains strong whichever of the Islamic parties - SCIRI or Da'wa - leads the next Iraqi government. Hakim's move, nonetheless, entails the possibility of the SCIRI positioning its prime-ministerial candidate, Abdul Adel Mahdi, in opposition to the current preferred United Iraqi Alliance candidate, Ibrahim al-Jaafari. Mahdi has been to Washington and has good US connections. Unlike Jaafari, he would be acceptable to both Kurds and Sunnis.

Larijani has already stated that the Iranians will appoint a delegation to talk to Khalilzad. But that implies the Iranians will negotiate in a position of force. Government spokesman Gholam-Hussein Elham stresses that "the Americans have long been asking us to hold talks on Iraq" - not exactly the spin coming from Washington. He adds that "what is important for us is to bring an end to the Iraqi occupation".

Though certainly not on an Iraqi scale, Iran is also a victim of terrorism. Last Thursday, a heavily armed group disguised as policemen set up a mock roadblock on the Zabol-to-Zahedan road in Sistan-Balochistan, near the sensitive borders with Afghanistan and Pakistan, and attacked an official convoy. People were dragged out of their cars and gunned down.

The Iranian government is playing down the possibility of a drug-related raid. Hardline Interior Minister Mostafa Purmohammadi said the perpetrators were the same ones who conducted a series of bombings in Ahvaz, in oil-rich Khuzestan province, months ago. The minister told the Iranian Students' News Agency (ISNA) that "according to our reports, US and British security chiefs met with rebel leaders and provoked them to commit the attacks". Iranian officials are adamant that British and US operatives are active in destabilizing Khuzestan - which Saddam Hussein called Arabistan - in a series of black operations, although Washington and London have rejected the accusations.

Separatist Arabs and Balochis provoking unrest looks like a classic "divide and rule" tactic of trying to destabilize the central government in Tehran. When the long Nauroz party is over, one wonders whether the players in the Iran-US talks on Iraq will really address the hard questions - who's helping whom in the regional-destabilization game.

(Copyright 2006 Asia Times Online Ltd. All rights reserved. Please contact us about sales, syndication and republishing .)
Snuffysmith
NATIONAL PERSPECTIVE
As a threat from Iran increases, US may lack preemptive options
By Peter S. Canellos, Globe Columnist | March 21, 2006

WASHINGTON -- In a speech to explain the Bush administration's national security report to Congress, the national security adviser, Stephen J. Hadley, made it clear last week that the eyes of the White House are on Iran.

''We face no greater challenge from a single country than from Iran," Hadley said Thursday, and he reiterated the administration's policy of preemptive war to remove threats to the United States before they become imminent.

''The doctrine of preemption remains sound," Hadley said.

''We do not rule out the use of force before an attack occurs," he added.

But Hadley spoke just two days before President Bush, in one of several speeches on national security in recent weeks, touted the fruits of the last preemptive war, in Iraq, and unintentionally revealed why preemptive war is going to be a very hard sell in the future.

''The decision by the United States and our coalition partners to remove Saddam Hussein from power was a difficult decision -- and it was the right decision," Bush declared.

''America and the world are safer today without Saddam Hussein in power," he said. ''He is no longer oppressing the Iraqi people, sponsoring terror, and threatening the world."

Bush's rhetoric was almost the same as three years ago, at the start of the war, with one major omission: the charge that Hussein was building weapons of mass destruction, the centerpiece of the original case for war. That's now on the cutting-room floor, since no such weapons were found.

And the other justifications -- freeing the Iraqi people and removing a state sponsor of terrorism -- look very thin in light of the deadly security breakdown in Iraq and the scant evidence of ties between Hussein and Al Qaeda.

So the administration is in the awkward position of building a case for the dangers posed by Iran -- a case that shows every sign of being far clearer than the one against Hussein -- while making an increasingly implausible case that there is no reason to believe the last preemptive war was a mistake.

Bush has two major audiences to which he might address the case for any new military action.

The first and most important audience is the American people, a majority of whom now believe the Iraq war was not worth the cost. They -- through their representatives in Congress -- would be reluctant to let the president use preemptive force again.

The second audience is the nations of the world, whose willingness to share in the burdens of warfare, both in troops and reconstruction dollars, seems more necessary with every US taxpayer check that goes to Baghdad. Other countries are skeptical of preemptive war not because they have sympathy for rogue regimes, but because they fear the unfettered power of the United States.

Pursuing a war in Iraq without the support of the United Nations could have served as the best defense of the doctrine of preemption, if the benefits of the war were on display. In the case of Iraq, though, skeptical nations are further emboldened by what they see as an unfolding disaster.

The political situations at home and abroad greatly limit the options for the administration.

But it cannot ignore the dangers posed by a belligerent power that may be on the verge of obtaining nuclear weapons.

It must hope that people in the United States and abroad can look beyond Iraq in assessing the threat posed by Iran.

But when people hear the case against Iran, the reports will sound familiar -- and yet so much stronger -- that it could set off new rounds of questioning as to how Bush, and so many others, had viewed Iraq as the more immediate threat.

Where Iraq offered the merest hints of a nuclear program, based on testimony from defectors and a few shards of intelligence, Iran has been openly building actual nuclear plants. Where Americans were forced to decode a bunch of mixed signals from the oddly manipulative Hussein, Iran's president, Mahmoud Ahmadinejad openly vows to wipe Israel off the map.

A possible lesson of the Iraq war is that Western nations should work harder to separate the bluster from the reality in assessing Middle East regimes.

No doubt, Hadley's national security team is hard at work examining all the policy options on Iran, including that of a preemptive war.

Much of the world, meanwhile, is hoping that Hadley's team will do a better job than its predecessor, under Condoleezza Rice.

Peter S. Canellos is The Boston Globe's Washington bureau chief. National Perspective is his weekly analysis of events in the capital and beyond.



© Copyright 2005 The New York Times Company
Snuffysmith
http://www.rawstory.com/news/2006/Conversa...art_3_0320.html
Conversations with Machiavelli's Ghost, Part 3

Larisa Alexandrovna
Published: Monday March 20, 2006

In the final installment of a series of interviews with RAW STORY Managing News Editor Larisa Alexandrovna, controversial Neoconservative scholar and Iran Contra figure Michael Ledeen denounces his reputation as a Neo-Fascist, criticizes the Bush administration's personnel decisions with regard to high level officials, and calls for the resignation of Secretary of Defense Donald Rumsfeld.

The most striking comment Ledeen makes is in reference to Osama bin Laden as having died in Iran late last year, echoing already long circulated accounts that bin Laden has been presumed dead for some time now.

In describing the Iraq war, Ledeen explains that he had strongly advised against the plan, saying that the invasion of Iraq was the "Wrong war, wrong time, wrong way, wrong place."

Ledeen also describes National Security Advisor Stephen Hadley as in a state of permanent "deputy" status. Hadley was Deputy National Security Advisor under now Secretary of State Condoleezza Rice. Ledeen provides a rather telling comparison of the Hadley/Rice relationship by using a precursor:

"I think Hadley is to Rice as Scowcroft was to Kissinger; not inclined to think or act independently," said Ledeen.

Other highlights include Ledeen's definition of the controversial concept of "Creative Destruction," as well as his hope for a bipartisan foreign policy solution in which different view points would stop "borking" one another: "We can't keep on Borking each other, describing one another in ugly caricatures, and refusing to think through what are, after all, often very difficult issues," says Ledeen.

Part I of this series, The Democratic Revolutionary

Part II of the series, aptly titled Dymistifying Intrigue

Staffing the Deck:

Iraq through a 911 Lens

RS): I want to revisit what we briefly touched upon with regard to the Iraq war and pre-war intelligence, but I want to continue from a different vantage point. Let's begin with the attacks of September 11, 2001. Do you think the attacks could have been and should have been avoided? Were there enough warnings? If so, where did the failure, in your opinion, occur?

ML): Wrong war, wrong time, wrong way, wrong place. As I said at the time. The key to the terror structure was and is Iran, and we should have started by supporting democratic revolution in Iran, not invading any place. And even if you decided to 'do' Iraq first, it should have been political first, and military second-if-necessary. I proposed declaring the 'no fly zones' to be 'free Iraq,' and then dropping leaflets on the country urging Iraqis to go govern themselves, preparing for the fall of the regime.

RS): Why do you think we have failed in democratic endeavors with regard to Iran?

ML): I think the CIA is both incompetent and unwilling to find and report the truth about Iran. They are afraid some president will tell them to get active in Iran, and they don't know where to start. To get the top al Qaeda people you would have to go into Iran, where most of them spend most of their time, and the CIA isn't up to that.

We still have no Iran policy, and we are trying to win a regional war while playing defense in one country alone. That is a sucker's game.

RS): Why do you think we did not and are not out chasing leads for Osama bin Laden and other high level Al Qaeda members?

ML): I wrote several weeks ago that I was told bin Laden died in Iran in mid-December, 2005. I trust the (Iranian) person who told me, but it's easy for even the best people to get such things wrong, so time will tell. Thus far there is no sign he's alive, and Zawahiri acts more and more like the commander.

RS): So will someone be letting us know about this or is the myth of him needed?

ML): Great question, to which I don't have the answer. I doubt Zawahiri wants to say he's dead (if indeed he is dead), that would not be good news. More likely we won't know for a while, unless he's alive and shows himself.

RS): What in your opinion defines a post-911 world? What separates it from a pre-911 world?

ML): The recognition by more people than before that we are under attack, as we have been for more than a quarter of a century.

RS): In responding to the attacks of 911, do you think we failed in any meaningful way to both secure the nation and to address terrorism?

ML): The world's leading supporter of terrorism, the Iranian regime, is still in power, and racing toward nuclear capacity. Ditto for the terror masters in Damascus. And it's obvious that our security systems are not as good as they should be. Have you been through an airport recently?

RS): Yes, I know what you mean, but what do you make of the Dubai port deal in this context? It seems to me that we, the US, are entering it from a point of weakness. National security has been used by this administration to justify everything under the sun, including illegal domestic surveillance programs.

The Dubai port deal has essentially exposed that national security is nothing more than a political ploy for this administration. The gamble is not worth it, especially not during such a high stakes election cycle. Why would the Bush/Cheney administration expose themselves like this if their hand was not being forced on the issue? Perhaps I am not seeing another element to this whole thing.

ML): I don't agree that national security is just a political ploy. I think the president takes it very seriously, and I also think the NSA program is legal. Obviously the Democrats now see that, since they are retreating.

RS): The NSA spying program is not legal, maybe justified in intent, but not remotely legal. Even if the FISA was not adequate, as some have argued, the White House was obligated to seek new legislation or corrections to already existing legislation, not simply ignore the law until found out. I don't know one credible legal scholar, from every side of every aisle, who would say that domestic surveillance without a warrant is legal. Again, we can speculate if it is justified or not, but it is hardly legal.

ML): I know plenty of legal scholars who think it's perfectly legal. Do you read Power Line blog? Andy McCarthy? Maybe the Supreme Court will pronounce on it some day.

RS): No, I have not read Power Line. But let's move on to the other part of my question. What about the Dubai deal? Why do you think it was pushed so hard?

ML: The problem with the Dubai deal is that they did it all wrong. It was a mid-level bureaucratic decision (no political people, hence no political sensitivity), they had a template, the case fit inside their template, and that was that. Von Mises teaches us that "bureaucrats don't solve problems, they apply the rules," and in this case they even applied the wrong rules. They should have used the old model, which would have required a kind of firewall between the U.S. operations and the foreign owners. That method has been used in dozens of cases, and satisfies most reasonable people.

Iraq In Chaos

RS): Secretary Rice, who at the time of the attacks of 911 was the National Security Advisor, was promoted. Stephen Hadley, who was at the time of the attacks the Deputy National Security Advisor, was also promoted. George Tenent was awarded with a medal. These are just a few examples of what is mind boggling in terms of incompetence and chaos.
Let's talk about Iraq against this backdrop. What do you think are the reasons that have contributed most greatly to the mess, the civil war, we are now seeing in Iraq? Is it reliance on the same circle of people who are not qualified?

ML): There is no civil war in Iraq, much as many people seem to wish. I keep saying that the Nobel Peace Prize should go to the Iraqi people. It would certainly be understandable if there were a civil war, but they have not fallen for it, despite the massacres of civilians by the terrorists.

RS): We can debate what to call the mess in Iraq, but the terrorists there are there in large numbers now and unified under a mission flag by the war we started. I don't think anyone wants this thing to fail; failure means dead bodies piling up. I don't think people would wish for so much death. What should/could we have done differently?

ML): The main failure in Iraq is to have misconceived the nature of the war, to have chosen the wrong target to begin with, and to have refused to launch a political challenge to the other terror masters. Most of the violence in Iraq would end if there were political freedom in Iran and Syria.

I agree that personnel is the weak point of this administration, and very few people have been held accountable for failure. Tenet should have been fired on the 12th of September, 2001. Rice is better than Powell, but not good enough, and Hadley is still her deputy. The NSC is extremely weak, and Rumsfeld should have been replaced long since.

RS): what do you mean Hadley is "still her deputy?" Who do you think should replace Rumsfeld? Is he not taking direct orders from Cheney, Addington, etc.?

ML): I think Hadley is to Rice as Scowcroft was to Kissinger; not inclined to think or act independently. I think the next SecDef should be a top notch manager, the Pentagon desperately needs smooth management instead of trying to function in constant crisis mode. And no, I don't think Rumsfeld is a puppet for anyone else. It's a hilarious idea, actually.

RS): Has this whole thing not turned out rather badly for Israel, as we have previously discussed? What do you think is the solution to this crisis now, given the situation, not just for Israel but for other nations in the region?

ML): Israel's stuck, as far as I can tell. The Arab-Israeli conflict cannot even be sensibly addressed until the war is over. The Palestinians cannot deliver what Israel needs, which is security, because the terrorists are in the hands of the terror masters in Tehran and Damascus and Riyadh. So what exactly are the Israelis supposed to do?

RS): You have told me before about your distrust of the CIA and other intelligence agencies regarding pre-war intelligence relating to Iraq. Is it specifically the CIA or American intelligence agencies in general? What is the history of this distrust and frustration?

ML): Pick your favorite commission report, everybody finds the same disaster. Everyone who looks seriously at our intelligence community emits a primal scream.

RS): Okay, I pick the 911 Commission Report; it is a bestseller after all. The CIA figures in here a great deal, yet the President gave Tenet a medal. But they are hardly the main character. NORAD, NSA, NSC, FAA, FBI all appear to have failed on that day, either through the leadership at the helm of each or through miscommunication based on a flawed design. So why has not a single person been fired? Why is such incompetence rewarded?

ML): Beats me, I've been yelling about it for nearly four years.

RS): Doesn't the "buck" stop at the White House, not the agencies it relies on? Ultimately, one can blame all of these agencies who failed to do their jobs on that day, but the President had ample warning from all of them, and the President ignored those warnings. Yet even after that, the President promoted most of the people in charge of those agencies. To me that smells of not only incompetence but an attempt to silence those that could expose an administratin so self-absorbed that it fell asleep at the wheel on the single most important issue for the country. There is no other way to see it, is there?

ML): There are lots of ways to see it, but you are right that the ultimate responsibility lies in the Oval Office.

Politics of Empire and Fascism

RS): Some have noted that the US has been empire building since the late seventies. Do you think we are empire building?

ML): No, quite the opposite. We are always in a rush to bring the boys (and now the girls) home. Often too early.

RS): Was Vietnam too early?

ML): I have no idea

RS): Much has been made of your identifying with neo-Fascism, specifically with the idea of perpetual war. Can you explain a reason for perpetual war and how the concept of "creative destruction" applies to perpetual war as well as peace? Is the war on terror the realization of perpetual war? If yes, do you feel that you may have contributed directly or indirectly to the process? If not, what is the war on terror then and how would you describe it?

ML): Of all the nonsense spread about me, the most outrageous is the claim that I have ever had the slightest sympathy for fascism. I spent fifteen years or so in the fascist archives, trying to figure out how such a terrible thing could have happened. I have always been an open enemy of all totalitarian movements, from fascism and Nazism to communism and jihadism. It is entirely fanciful to suggest that someone who studies evil somehow sympathizes with it. Tout comprendre is NOT tout pardonner. My work on fascism has stood up very well, several of my books are still in print, and there is now a second generation of work on subjects I was the first to identify as important, such as the efforts to create a fascist international in the late twenties and early thirties.

"Creative destruction" comes from an entirely different context. The phrase is Schumpeter's, and he used it to describe the effect of capitalism on society. I found it particularly descriptive of American character, because we are always tearing down old things and building new ones, whether in art or literature or intellectual fads or business or sports. It's part of our national DNA, as it were. And I have sometimes applied it to the happy outcomes of some of our international campaigns, as when we brought democracy to Italy, Germany and Japan after the Second World War.

I don't know what, if anything, that has to do with war and peace, those are much bigger issues. Generally, I think that man is a warlike animal. Anyone who studies human history has to agree that most of it is the history of war or the preparation for war. It's sad, but there you have it.

RS): We are tearing down a great deal, that is correct, but we rarely rebuild it. One need only look at countries that have been exploited by US creativity and corporate interests and what little is left of them when our corporations go in to rebuild the very thing they were involved in taking down. We are three years into Iraq and Halliburton is busy building something, but it is not rebuilding the basics needed for Iraq's stability.

It does apply to war and peace, but I think there is some romanticizing going on with what Germany was, for example. Germany, as we had discussed in part one of this series, was first torn down when it was already a democracy and rebuild by western interests into a war machine, destroyed again, and rebuilt into a democracy.

ML): That's not my understanding of German history. They built their own war machine.

I have obviously failed to explain what "creative destruction" is all about. Look at America alone. Look at all the corporations that used to exist, indeed that used to dominate their industries: Woolworth's, Pan Am, TWA, Bell Labs, and so on. All gone. It's the nature of American capitalism. On their graves, so to speak, we now have a galaxy of very new corporations, from Microsoft and Apple to Google and Southwest. Ditto for sports dynasties, political dynasties, buildings large and small, mafia chieftains, you name it. Americans love it when the big guys fall, and we love it when little guys rise. That's what I'm talking about. It's not "corporations" doing this or that.

RS): This may be a stupid assumption, but I don't see the corporate model you talk about. Bell Lab still exists in smaller pieces and is now trying to reform into a monolith it once was. TWA was absorbed by American Airlines in 2001. Pan Am is now in its third iteration and, again, absorbed by something bigger than itself. If anything, corporations have simply absorbed other smaller companies and emerged as mega-corporations, whereby a few large corporations have a monopoly on several markets. And now with the global marketplace, what we are seeing is not so much the rise and fall of corporations, but the subjugation of state government and its citizens to the interests of corporations.

ML): You can't find PanAm on a stock exchange, or a Woolworth's in America, while Bell Labs doesn't exist as such, it's part of other things now. Somehow you've accepted a bizarre notion of American capitalism.

LA): All of that said, you must allow that some of your comments and some of your theories on policy are very much reflective of the very philosophy you have tried to repudiate, no?

ML): No. I have always tried to advance freedom, never tyranny.

LA): Take for example:

"And we have strengths and weaknesses in this war. Our weaknesses are our poor education and our embrace of all kinds of silly ideas; foremost among which is the ideas that peace is the normal condition of mankind. Only a country devoted to the systematic ignorance of human history could believe a thing like this because war is the normal condition of mankind."
ML): That's an accurate historical statement, not advocacy. Peace is very rare, war is a commonplace.

LA): I think it is an interesting analysis and has some truth to it, but I do dispute some of it as fact, yes. While I agree that the last few centuries have been war with little peace, I do not agree that war is the normal condition of mankind. I think survival is the normal and primal condition of mankind, not violence and chaos. What separates us from animals is our ability to choose how we will survive: diplomacy vs. war and so forth. The whole point of progress is to move toward the better parts of ourselves. Most people, if asked to kill someone so that they may take that person's house, will not do it. The idea of embracing what is believed to be our inner warmonger rings very Fascist to me. Does it not to you?

ML): You keep asking when I stopped beating my wife. I am not advocating war; I am saying that it is a very common human activity. I don't like it. But it's true.

RS): Okay, no more wife beating then. What about this example:

"Creative destruction is our middle name, both within our own society and abroad. We tear down the old order every day, from business to science, literature, art, architecture, and cinema to politics and the law. Our enemies have always hated this whirlwind of energy and creativity, which menaces their traditions (whatever they may be) and shames them for their inability to keep pace. Seeing America undo traditional societies, they fear us, for they do not wish to be undone. They cannot feel secure so long as we are there, for our very existence – our existence, not our politics – threatens their legitimacy. They must attack us in order to survive, just as we must destroy them to advance our historic mission."
What gives America the right to "undo traditional societies?"

ML): I did not say that we have a right to undo traditional societies, I said that we are a revolutionary people that constantly tears down the old order. Sometimes it's creative, sometimes it makes a mess, and sometimes it produces awful results. You really must stop suggesting that descriptions are the same thing as policy advocacy.

RS): I apologize if I have given the impression that I equate descriptions with policy advocacy. Let me try a different way. There are observations and descriptions that are codified into policy, rightly or wrongly, and those policies – either through force or through advocacy – become conditions that we later look back on as descriptions or, as you say, historic mission.

When mankind is defined to be naturally warlike and that opinion becomes coded into policy, is that not when we see the very things you describe occur?

What I am trying to ask is if you do not see how defining something as evil, for example, and then acting as an advisor on government affairs where that definition of evil becomes policy could be seen as advocacy on the part of the person defining the evil to begin with? Can you then appreciate why so many people have confused your observations and/or descriptions with Fascism, given the current US policy?

ML): It's precisely fascism and oppressive regimes that I define as evil, and seek to defeat. It's outrageous to be accused of defending the very thing I am trying to destroy, just as it's outrageous to be accused – by the likes of Vince Cannistraro – of being involved in the Niger forgeries, which is totally groundless. People just make up things, and then I'm supposed to defend myself against their fantasies.
Pfui.

We disagree on the nature of man, and I must say I admire your optimism, given that you have often seen and experienced the dark side. As for human progress, well, no one can dispute that the twentieth century was the most terrible in human history, so I remain puzzled by folks who think we're improving. I don't see it.

RS): I think we can improve if the model of man's warlike nature is not something that continues to be embraced as the natural state of man.

How would you describe democracy? Is America still a democracy? How do you describe fascism (I know you have written about it extensively, but I cannot quote whole books, so if you could simply find a way of doing a short version, that would be great).

ML): Democracy is a political system in which the people choose their own leaders and the rules by which they are governed. So yes, America is a democratic political system.

RS): What if the state and corporate interests privatize the "choosing" of leaders, thereby making it impossible for anyone to really know the truth of who was chosen? Take the last election, both here and in my former stomping ground in Ukraine. In the latter, the exit polls differed so drastically from the results that the people took to the streets and American leaders agreed with them. Here in the US, where the mathematical anomalies were seen across the nation and the exit polls vs. the actual results were so differing, what happened?

ML): I don't know about the Ukraine, probably it was a stolen election. Here, some folks went nuts over early exit polls when they shouldn't have. At AEI our polling people all said, categorically, nobody should pay any attention to them.

Fascism is a single-party dictatorship in which the dictator determines the rules and imposes them on the people, using mass mobilization as the basic method of inspiring loyalty.

That is the main difference between fascism and communism; communist regimes do not try to engage the masses in political activity.

Pre-emptive war, Iran, and WMD

RS): What do you make of the administration's policy to use, preemptively, biological, chemical, and nuclear weapons?

ML): Nothing, since it hasn't happened and I haven't heard it advocated. The so-called doctrine of preemptive war is very old and the essence of common sense, since the alternative is to tell your enemies they will always have the first shot. No one running on that platform would ever win an election.

RS): It was just released by the administration. Read here.

ML): You've misread the grammar: it does not say Bush wants to use WMDs, it says we should take preemptive action against enemies who have WMD.

RS): I never said "wants to", I simply asked what you thought of the policy. In any case, can he or should he? Whether he wants to or not is not really the point, the mechanism is the point and that mechanism is lethal.

On Jews, Muslims, and the Strategy of Tension

RS): Do you think that the West has abused the rift between the Muslims and Jews by playing both sides against each other in order to create a permanent strategy of tension? If so, what do you cite as the latest example?

ML): I don't think that "the West" has played Jews and Muslims against one another. A lot of contemporary Muslim anti-Semitism came from the West, specifically from the Nazis, so in that sense one can argue that European anti-Semitism was successfully transplanted into parts of the Muslim world.

RS): America and Europe fully support the Saudi regime, which does not recognize Israel's right to exist and which funds many of the terrorist activities we see playing out, while at the same time supporting Israel. America and Europe turns a blind eye to Pakistan and its role in literally creating a nuclear Middle East, but then wants to attack Iran for purchasing centrifuge blueprints on the grounds that Iran's not-remotely operational nuke program is threatening Israel. Halliburton has offices in Tehran and works to help Iran with its not- remotely operational nuclear program, but Dick Cheney rattles the saber using Israel's survival as the reason.

I could go on and on really, everything from arming the PLO while at the same time arming Israel, to the right leaning politics of blaming American support for Israel as the reason for the attacks of September 11th.

There is something very wrong with this picture, is there not?

ML): Indeed. It seems impossible for some of our policy makers to recognize that some countries are simultaneously friends and enemies. In the Dubai debate, for example, the administration kept saying "but they are our friends, look at all the good things they have done." True enough. But they are also friends of Iran, and they have done good things for the mullahs, too, from weapons smuggling to money laundering. And they're part of the boycott of Israel.

Ditto for Pakistan and Saudi Arabia, both have helped and hurt us. Both are profoundly corrupt, as Dubai. Both would behave better if we were clearer and more forceful about the things we don't like. I mean, how can we call the Saudis our friends when they fund and operate the world-wide network of radical jihadi mosques and schools that breeds the next generation of Islamic terrorists?

If we end up bombing Iran it will demonstrate a terrible failure of American policy. We should have worked for non-violent regime change years ago. And here the reactionary left has a big share of the blame, having reflexively supported the mullahs all these years.

RS): Is there any chance for a sensible bipartisan foreign policy in the United States?

ML): Only if we stop demonizing and dehumanizing our opponents. We can't keep on Borking each other, describing one another in ugly caricatures, and refusing to think through what are, after all, often very difficult issues. That means one has to have respect for the facts. I don't believe it's possible for people to call me the names I've been called if they have actually read what I have written, and at least some of it comes from people who have simply accepted hateful stereotypes of "neocons."

There are some concrete things we can do that might improve the situation. One thing is to give victims of libel a better chance to be "made whole" in court. I'm all for rough-and-tumble debate, as you've seen. But I think that when people accuse me of actions that never took place, I should be able to take them to trial, demonstrate my innocence, and collect damages.

RS): I know you are pursuing legal action against the Italian publication La Republica.

ML): …I think that might encourage people to be more careful with their accusations, and correct the record when they are exposed, or, to give them the benefit of the doubt, when they discover they have been misled. I have made mistakes in print, and I try to correct them. I am grateful to readers who correct me. I don't find that attitude among my attackers, on both political poles. Do you?

RS): I don't know in your specific case what has been said and by whom exactly. I do know in my case I have been described as having reported something I had never reported, and that straw man is then used to discount other works of mine.

ML): We badly need to change certain aspects of our behavior, and the main one is to stop trying to criminalize policy disagreements. I have fairly low expectations of human nature, so I am not surprised when people make mistakes. But when that happens, the important thing for all of us is to advance understanding, not liquidate the idiot who did it (there is a long line of similar idiots waiting for that job, after all). So even if you think that Bush has done everything wrong, your response should be to list the errors and suggest better alternatives, not to call him names or clamor for impeachment, which will only make the administration dig in deeper and make any change far less likely.

RS): The whole issue with this administration is not that they made mistakes, because as you say all people and groups of people make mistakes. The issue is really twofold: The administration will not listen to suggestions to begin with, then when things go badly, they won't correct the course they are on based on still more suggestions. We just discussed above the promotion of the very people who keep failing, failure upwards as it were. I think impeachment is not only a proper legal course when there is at best criminal negligence (lack of accountability, manipulation of pre-war intelligence, etc.) and maybe even worse, but it is ethically the thing that must be done in an actual democracy when the leadership violates domestic and international law and abuses its power. The time has passed to push for change with this administration or to make still more suggestions. That has been tried and rebuffed over and over. There is too much death, distrust, abuse of power, abuse of basic human rights, for us to now say that we should all have a group hug – not if we want to call this a democracy.

ML): If crimes have indeed been committed, they should be prosecuted and punished, but that's not what I'm talking about. I'm talking about policy disagreements that are transformed into prosecutions.

RS): Violating Geneva is not a policy disagreement, it is a crime.
theglobalchinese
UN Council deadlocked on issuing Iran statement Yahoo! NEWS
The U.N. Security Council ran into new obstacles on Tuesday in trying to issue a statement on reining in Iran's nuclear ambitions after Russia insisted on deleting key parts of the text. A closed-door meeting among all 15 council members scheduled for Tuesday was delayed until later in the week while diplomats talk in small groups, U.S. Ambassador John Bolton said. Members last week thought a deal was close. "The impact on the negotiations which we are trying to do here was not as positive as we would have wished," British Ambassador Emyr Jones Parry said. "That is the basic problem." Council members have mulled a reaction to Iran's nuclear program, which the West believes is a cover for bomb making, since receiving a dossier from the International Atomic Energy Agency in Vienna on March 8. Russia, supported by China, has been wary of action by the Security Council, which can impose sanctions, fearing threats might escalate and prompt Iran to cut all contact with the IAEA, the U.N. nuclear watchdog. On the statement, Russia wants about half the text deleted, China said. A statement requires agreement from all 15 Security Council members while a resolution needs nine votes in favor and no veto from any of the permanent members -- the United States, Britain, France, Russia and China. The Western powers could turn the statement, drafted by France and Britain, into a resolution and dare Russia and China to take what would be a serious step and veto a text on Iran. Asked about a resolution, Britain's Jones Parry said everything was on the table "if it produces a satisfactory outcome, sends the right message to the government in Tehran." "I think what France and I both feel is that if this text is to be amended further, it should be amended in order to come to an agreed conclusion. And if there is no prospect of an agreed conclusion we won't be amending the text," Jones Parry said. Moscow would like to cut a provision that weapons of mass destruction constitute "a threat to international peace and security" because it could lead to a action under Chapter 7 of the U.N. Charter, which makes demands mandatory and can lead to sanctions or even military action, China said. "The Russian argument is that it has the implication of leading to Chapter 7 actions," China's U.N. ambassador Wang Guangya said. "I believe that the Russian concern has its logic," Wang said when asked if China agreed. Russia also wants a brief statement that does not reiterate all demands from the IAEA's 35-nation board, such as suspending all uranium enrichment activities. Instead it wants only to point to the number of the IAEA resolution, Wang said.

NEXT STEPS?
Senior officials from the five permanent council members and Germany met on Monday to discuss future action but came to no agreement, diplomats said. Before the meeting, Britain had floated the possibility of tougher Security Council measures against Tehran in exchange for a package of incentives, which had been offered by the Europeans earlier in talks that collapsed, diplomats said. Russia, Wang said, informally floated its own proposals -- talks with Iran, the IAEA's director general Mohamed ElBaradei and the six countries, similar to talks on North Korea, which are not part of Security Council measures. But he said neither the British proposals nor the Russian ones were discussed at the meeting. "They (the Russians) argued for two tracks. "On one hand you put pressure, on the other hand show a way out of this," Wang said without elaborating. Under a November 2004 agreement with Britain, France and Germany, negotiators for the European Union, Iran agreed to freeze any uranium conversion, enrichment and reprocessing activities in return for economic and political rewards. That deal broke down last year and Iran restarted uranium conversion in August.
By Evelyn Leopold
Snuffysmith
March 21, 2006
Iran's Leader Approves Talks With U.S. on Iraq
By THE ASSOCIATED PRESS
Filed at 6:00 p.m. ET

TEHRAN, Iran (AP) -- Supreme leader Ayatollah Ali Khamenei said Tuesday that he approves of talks between U.S. and Iranian officials on Iraq, but warned that the United States must not try to ''bully'' Iran.

It was the first confirmation that Khamenei, who holds final say on all state matters in Iran, is in favor of the talks.

His comments came hours after President Bush spoke in favor of such a meeting, saying American officials would show Iran ''what's right or wrong in their activities inside of Iraq.''

Khamenei said that ''if the Iranian officials can make the U.S. understand some issues about Iraq, there is no problem with the negotiations.''

''But if the talks mean opening a venue for bullying and imposition by the deceitful party (the Americans), then it will be forbidden,'' he said in a speech in the northeastern city of Mashhad, aired on state television.

Both the United States and Iran have said the talks will focus solely on stabilizing Iraq and not deal with the heated issue of Iran's nuclear program. No time or place has yet been set for talks, though the U.S. ambassador to Iraq, Zalmay Khalilzad, who is to head the U.S. side, has proposed holding them in Baghdad.

Last week, a top Iranian official -- Ali Larijani, the secretary of the Supreme National Security Council -- announced that Tehran was willing to enter talks with the United States. Khamenei voiced his approval Tuesday after some hard-liners in Iran's clerical government came out against any contacts with the United States.

Iran has considerable influence with Shiite political parties who dominate Iraq's parliament, and U.S. Secretary of State Condoleezza Rice has said U.S.-Iranian talks on Iraq could be ''useful.''

Bush on Tuesday told reporters that he had instructed Khalilzad to make Iran understand that ''attempts to spread sectarian violence or to maybe move parts that could be used for (improvised explosive devices) is unacceptable to the United States.''

The Bush administration has accused Iran's elite Revolutionary Guard of smuggling bomb-making parts across the border into Iraq, though Gen. Peter Pace, chairman of the Joints Chiefs of Staff, acknowledged last week he has no evidence Iran's government is sponsoring such activity. Bomb attacks have mainly been carried out by Sunni insurgents attacking the Shiite-led Iraqi government.

Also in Tuesday's speech, Khamenei dismissed the threat of U.N. Security Council action over Iran's nuclear program, saying Tehran would reject any measures it considers against its interests.



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