Our Imperative In Asia
Christopher Flavin
January 25, 2006


Christopher Flavin is president of the Worldwatch Institute.

Last week, Condoleezza Rice announced that the State Department will expand its diplomatic presence in several countries, including China and India. The State Department would serve the American people best if it uses these transferred diplomats to work cooperatively with these nations to address two of our most pressing concerns: dependence on foreign oil and climate change.

According to our recently released report State of the World 2006 , the choices that China and India make in the next few years will lead the world either toward a future beset by growing ecological and political instability—or down a path based on efficient technologies and better stewardship of resources. Rising demand for energy, food and raw materials by 2.5 billion Chinese and Indians—four out of 10 of the world’s people—is already having ripple effects worldwide.

Meanwhile, record-shattering consumption in the United States and Europe leave little room for this projected Asian growth. In carbon dioxide emissions alone, the benchmark of fossil fuel use, U.S. per-capita emissions are six times the Chinese level and 20 times the Indian level. If China and India were to consume resources and produce pollution at the current U.S. per capita level, it would require two planet Earths just to sustain their two economies.

In 2005, China alone already used 26 percent of the world's steel, 32 percent of the rice and 47 percent of the cement. Though their per-capita resource consumption is still low, with their huge populations, China and India are joining the United States and Europe as ecological superpowers whose demands on the world's ecosystems will vastly outstrip those of other countries, according to State of the World . Both have just started to build what are slated to be two of the largest automobile industries in the world.

Recently, China and India have developed a voracious appetite for the resource with the greatest geopolitical significance: India’s use of oil has doubled since 1992, while China went from near self-sufficiency in the mid-1990s to be the world’s second-largest oil importer in 2004. Chinese and Indian oil companies are now seeking oil in countries such as Sudan and Venezuela. The specter of the Chinese and Indians now competing with the United States and Europe for access to some of the world’s poorest and least stable countries is hardly a blueprint for a peaceful world.

No doubt the recent announcement that China and India will collaborate on oil deals put a scare into Washington. But Washington should be just as concerned with falling behind the Chinese and Indians in developing alternatives to oil. In 2005, both nations’ governments committed to accelerating the development of new energy sources, propelled by new laws and growing investments. Already, China’s world-leading solar industry provides water heating for 35 million buildings. Both countries are positioned to leapfrog today’s industrial powers and become world leaders in sustainable energy and agriculture within a decade.

Washington would do well to follow Chinese authorities’ commitment to finding ways to decrease their country’s reliance on fossil fuels. The Chinese Ministry of Construction recently declared public transport a national priority and is promoting Bus Rapid Transit, an ingenious system that provides the speed of a subway with the affordability of a bus. And in 2004, China implemented automobile fuel economy standards based on European standards that are tougher than those in the United States. China’s commitment to energy efficiency is also reflected in its status as the world leader in producing and installing compact fluorescent light bulbs—and the government’s recent decision to send “energy police” to patrol shopping malls in order to crack down on excessive lighting and air conditioning.

The United States would be well-served to use its expanded diplomatic force in these nations to seek joint solutions to the pressing problem of fossil fuel dependency, as well as to work together to mitigate global climate change. All three countries must collaborate to ensure adequate energy supplies for all, even as they work together to move away from fossil fuels: It is clear that efforts by individual countries to lock up their own foreign oil supplies cannot protect any of them from the risk of disruption in a globally connected petroleum market.

The global community also needs to recognize the pivotal roles China and India will play in this century, and invite them to participate in international institutions accordingly. Prime Minister Tony Blair took a step in the right direction last year when he invited President Hu Jintao and Prime Minister Manmohan Singh to attend the G8 Gleneagles Summit last summer to discuss, among other things, climate change. These two countries should be invited to all such future summits—as full members. Their presence would not only add the perspective of two important rising powers, but of two countries that still grapple with issues common to many developing countries.

The rise of China and India is the wake-up call that should prompt people in the United States and around the world to take seriously the need for strong commitments to build sustainable economies. Viewing this dramatic shift in global geopolitics as an opportunity rather than a challenge holds the greatest prospect for ensuring a stable and peaceful 21st century.