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What Peak Oil Means to Every American
Declaring energy independence
by TOM UDALL | posted 02.02.06

In 1970, oil production within the United States
peaked -- reached its maximum production rate -- at
not much more than 10 million barrels of oil per
day. That means since 1970, oil production in this
country has been declining, and we now import 58
percent of the oil we use. The sheer scale of the
American appetite for petroleum is difficult to
grasp: Per capita, each of us consumes about 20
pounds of petroleum products each day.

With demand rising and production that we can
control falling, our dependence on imported oil has
become an economic, diplomatic and security
nightmare. We now send $25 million an hour abroad to
pay for foreign oil, and some of that money is
diverted to the same jihadi terrorists we are
spending additional billions to fight. For these and
other reasons, Rep. Roscoe Bartlett (R-Md.) and I
founded the Congressional Peak Oil Caucus in October
2005.

A crisis looms if we do not begin preparing for the
day when world oil production peaks. And that day is
coming, most likely within four to eight years. Peak
oil is a fact, not a theory, and the logic is
simple. World oil production has been increasing for
more than 140 years. But you have to discover oil
before you can produce it. Global discoveries peaked
40 years ago, so the production peak will
necessarily follow. Oil production in 33 of the 48
largest oil-producing nations in the world has
already peaked.

The world now consumes 84 million barrels of oil per
day, and it is true that there will be enough oil
produced this year and the next to meet global
demand. But thereafter, depletion is likely to gain
the upper hand as global production flattens and
begins to decline.

Peak oil does not mean we are running out of oil.
Indeed, at peak, society will recover and refine
more oil than ever before. But once oil production
begins to decline, prices are likely to rise
sharply, with some mainstream experts predicting a
doubling or tripling by 2015. What we are running
out of is cheap oil -- the $20 per barrel oil around
which we have designed our automobiles, our
subdivisions, the American way of life. Cheap oil,
in conjunction with Yankee ingenuity and the
entrepreneurial spirit, has been the wellspring for
our current prosperity.

When world oil production peaks at 88 or 90 or 94
million barrels a day, we will move from the era of
cheap oil to an era of more expensive oil. An
economy based on the availability of oil, as we've
known it, will no longer make sense. Looking ahead,
we need 10 to 15 years to develop and implement a
new energy policy before the shock of peak oil
arrives.

Oil provides 40 percent of the world's energy, and
some people argue that market forces will make
alternative fuels more competitive. This is wishful
thinking. None of the currently available
alternative sources of liquid fuels is anywhere near
ready to replace oil in the volumes we use it today.
Happy talk about hydrogen and other mythical elixirs
will not save the day. Solar, wind, and biofuels all
have significant potential but still represent far
less than 10 percent of our current energy portfolio
in the United States.

So what do we do? A few years ago, Vice President
Cheney said, "Conservation may be a sign of personal
virtue, but it is not a sufficient basis for a
sound, comprehensive energy policy." He could not be
more wrong. Our future prosperity now depends on a
rapid increase in energy conservation. Conserving
energy is patriotic; indeed, it's one of the most
patriotic things any of us can do.

The storm is gathering. There's a lot of work to do
and not much time to do it. We've got to replace 200
million vehicles with far more efficient ones. If we
are smart about this, we can rebuild Detroit, now
rapidly going broke, in the process. We've got to
own up to the fact that transporting goods and
people by rail is at least five times more efficient
than cars and trucks. Therefore, we must revive and
reinvest in our passenger and freight rail systems.
We must accelerate our deployment of wind and solar
power, while launching a massive, long-term
investment in advanced energy research.

President Kennedy challenged the nation to reach the
moon in less than a decade, and we did. If we are
serious about defending the nation and preserving
our prosperity, energy security and energy
conservation must be our new watchwords, our new
space program.

Rep. Tom Udall, D-N.M., is a senior member of the
House Resources Committee. His web site is
tomudall.house.gov.