As the war in Iraq approaches its thirty-sixth month, several salient facts are becoming clearer to me.
First, and this is no great revelation, BushCo has not told the American people one single word of truth since 9/11. There were no WMDs; the Niger Documents were forgeries; the Iraqi people did not throw flowers at our troops (they threw IADs); we are not bringing democracy to Iraq; when we leave (and the only question is when, not whether) there will be a regional civil war. Osama is still in his cave; the 9/11 report is a travesty; our ports let in 11 million containers a year, only 5% of which are inspected; the so-called "war on terror" is just a fear device designed to let BushCo take away our rights at home and kill innocent people abroad.
Second, until September of 2000 when Saddam Hussein declared his intention to accept Euros as payment for his oil under the Oil for Food Program, the US Dollar was the exclusive currency for oil payments, a deal worked out in secret by Kissinger in 1974. Seventy percent of the world's business is transacted in US Dollars. Countries hold ourDdollars as "reserve currency because they need it for international dealings AND FOR OIL. America can literally print money and exchange it for hard goods made in China or Korea or India, and they will take those Dollars because they MUST HAVE THEM TO BUY OIL. The entire global economy is based on US Dollars, and BushCo cannot afford to let the Euro horn in as a reserve currency at the expense of the dollar. Oh yes, in May of 2003, after Saddam's ouster, BushCo cancelled Iraq's Euro deal and reverted to using Dollars for oil payments.
Third, by invading Iraq and creating chaos, BushCo took about 7% of the world's oil supply off the market, doubling its price in just a few months. Suddenly, the world needed even more Dollars to pay for the same amount of oil.
Fourth, even though the past 20 years have seen an enormous decline in American jobs - the high-paying ones in manufacturing, and the modest-paying ones in service and support, we are still living high on the hog. What has changed during that time is that we now pay Asians dollars that we print (for 2.3 cents per $100 bill) for DVD players, apparel, cars, iPods, you name it. The Asians, in turn, invest those dollars in Wall Street, keeping the Dow high and mortgage rates low.
Nice work if you can get it, eh?
THIS IS NOT A SUSTAINABLE BUSINESS MODEL. IT CANNOT GO ON FOREVER.
One day, the Asians will decide it is time for THEM to live the good life, buy a car, a house, a DVD player, some nice clothes. And they will put fewer and fewer dollars into Wall Street. And our interest rates will rise, and the stock market will decline (along with everybody's 401k retirement money). This is inevitable. It will happen.
But it will happen even sooner if the Euro horns in on the Dollar as the world's reserve currency. They can print 100 Euro notes just as cheaply.
Fifth, during the late 90s, Saddam made deals with France, Russia, China, India, and a dozen other countries (but not the US or UK) to develop 70% of Iraqi oilfields. Those deals are now cancelled by BushCo. They have been replaced by PSAs (Production Sharing Agreements) with US and UK oil giants. They cannot be cancelled, even in an international court. And BushCo has built 14 state-of-the-art airbases in Iraq to make sure that nobody interferes with those new contracts.
Sixth, Iran is opening its Oil Exchange (Bourse) on March 21, 2006. Not only will they sell Iranian oil for Euros, they will TRADE OIL FUTURES FOR EUROS. This is very subtle, but very important. ANYBODY FROM ANY COUNTRY WHO WANTS TO TRADE OIL FUTURES IN EUROS WILL BE WELCOME TO DO SO. This means that countries that used to keep billions of US Dollars on hand (parked in US T-bills) for future oil purchases can now use Euros instead. THE IRAN OIL BOURSE WILL MAKE THE EURO A DE FACTO WORLD RESERVE CURRENCY. BushCo will not let this happen. BushCo will bomb Iran, using the nuclear issue (another WMD bogeyman). Any one wanna bet? And when an errant cruise missile goes into the Bourse, that will be the end of the PetroEuro market. You can expect Iran to torpedo a few tankers in the Strait of Hormuz, where 25% of the world's oil passes. That should raise the price to $200 a barrel, maybe higher. Great- BushCo can print more Dollars!
I propose that BushCo doesn't care a fig for the 27 million Iraqis who are about to suffer terribly in the coming civil war which BushCo made inevitable. When it comes, BushCo will pull out many of the Coalition Forces, send some to the 14 airbases, and watch from the sidelines while the slaughter goes on. And when it finally ends, years from now, then the oil will start to flow.
Call me a cynic, but in a twisted way, BushCo has gotten the job done. We have maintained our standard of living through continued dollar hegemony, even though hundreds of millions of human beings will toil harder while we live on borrowed (printed) money; BushCo has made sure that Iraq's oilfields (they are the last of the "easy, cheap oilfields" on the planet) will be developed by US and UK companies with sales solely in Dollars.
So why am I not popping the cork on a $200 bottle of Champagne?
Because this is not an America I am proud of. Is this what we have to do to keep our standard of living? Trade "counterfeit" currency for real goods, while making nothing of value ourselves? Living on the backs of others? Sounds like a return to the days of slavery on the plantation to me.
I believe that if Bush had not taken office in 2001 (with the emphasis on "taken"), the US, along with the EU, Japan, China, Korea, India, and other "industrial and post-industrial" nations would have gotten together and said, "Hey, the world needs oil, and 60% of it is in the middle east. Let's work a deal out where everybody benefits. Let's use a "basket-of-currencies" approach for oil so that hard-working people don't have to take our dollars because they have to."
They should take US Dollars because they WANT to - because we have some technology they want to buy from us. That is the way it should have come down. Not by force, which is BushCo's way.
Okay, I'll take my meds now. But it sure seems a shame that we Americans, the beacon of the free world, resorted to invading a country that never attacked us nor presented any real threat to us, simply to secure the oil and keep out the Euro.
