http://www.atimes.com/atimes/Middle_East/HD29Ak03.html Iraq's choice: Revolution or nation-building
By Sami Moubayed
DAMASCUS - In the 1950s, the two competing giants of Arabic music, Abdul-Halim Hafez and Farid al-Atrash, would schedule their concerts on the same day and same hour, to see which radio stations would broadcast their performance in full-length and ignore the other. It seemed a reasonable way for them to test their popularity in the Arab world.
This week, quite unintentionally, a similar popularity concert occurred between Abu Musab al-Zarqawi, the leader of the al-Qaeda branch in Iraq, and Iraq's prime minister-designate, Jawad al-Maliki.
Zarqawi's speech, initially released through the Internet on April 21, was aired on Arabic satellite television within the same hour as Maliki's interview, the first since he was nominated prime minister on April 22. Both men were speaking from Iraq. One represented the state, the other spoke for the outlaws. Both were speaking about the future of Iraq. And both were addressing the Sunni community of Iraq, in dramatically different logic.
Without proper statistics, it is a sure guess that more people were listening to Zarqawi than Maliki. The 39-year-old rebel greatly overshadows the 56-year-old premier, because he is the younger speaker, speaking sentimental revolutionary language that many disgruntled Iraqi young people want to hear.
These young people are poor and angry - and they have arms, plenty of arms - that they can use against everyone and everything that threatens their interests, be it Maliki, the Iraqi Shi'ites, Iran or the United States.
In the back-to-back interviews, Maliki wore a neatly pressed Western suit, with an Iraqi flag decorating his office. Zarqawi was filmed from the wildness of the Iraqi desert, wearing a black outfit, bearded, and sitting next to a rifle. He clearly has gained much weight since the last pictures of him were released in 2004.
His 34-minute video was decorated with computer graphics, verses from the Holy Koran and a clip of Osama bin Laden praising the Iraqi insurgency, meant to raise the morale of the Iraqi fighters and strengthen Zarqawi's credentials as bin Laden's man in Iraq.
The video also showed a pair of rockets created by al-Qaeda - much to the horror of the world - called al-Qaeda I and al-Quds I. They were created, Zarqawi claimed, "to bomb enemy sites". The film came two days before triple terrorist attacks targeted a tourist resort in Egypt, killing 23 people.
These attacks, and Zarqawi's presence, are a clear reminder to the world that terrorism still lives, is still very strong, and is able to strike at any minute. To say the least, the terrorists are not losing the battle against the United States.
For months, Zarqawi has kept a low profile, especially since he claimed responsibility for the horrific bombings in Amman on November 9 in which 60 people were killed. The victims were 60 Sunnis, including Syrian director Mustapha al-Akkad, who had made a film in Hollywood about the true face of Islam.
Those attacks enflamed Muslim emotions and greatly damaged Zarqawi's popularity, even among his own jihadis, who claimed that it was the wrong attack on the wrong enemy, and that all it did was jeopardize his standing among Sunnis.
Since then, many even speculated that Zarqawi had been killed, although most terrorist operations in Iraq were attributed to his al-Qaeda branch. Some military analysts claimed that he had been badly wounded, while a few observers went as far as to say that Zarqawi did not even exist and had been created by the Americans as a legendary enemy to justify their massive security failures in Iraq.
Zarqawi surprised them all and showed the world that not only does he exist, but he is healthy and as defiant as ever. He seemed very confident - unlike the nervous and stiff Maliki - and, very simply, his words were more interesting than those of the prime minister's.
The reason is that while Maliki spoke about nation-building, Zarqawi was talking revolution. Maliki was telling the world that his country would not be able to confront the Sunni insurgents without the help of the Sunni community. He was telling the Sunni community to abandon Zarqawi and join him in the political process, promising them political reward.
Zarqawi, on the other hand, was ordering the Sunnis never to abandon their arms, saying, "Any government that will be established in Iraq today, whoever is in it, whether they are the rejecters [in reference to the Shi'ite Muslims] or the secular Zionist Kurds or the agents who are Sunnis in name, it will be a puppet government that will owe its allegiance to the Crusaders [in reference to the West and the United States]."
Zarqawi labeled Maliki's government as "a poisonous dagger in the hearts of the Islamic nation". He appealed to the Sunnis to fight the Americans in Iraq and the Shi'ite majority, who are accused of fueling sectarian violence after a terrorist attack targeted a holy Shi'ite shrine in Samarra in February. The Shi'ites took revenge on the Sunnis - without a shred of evidence - destroying Sunni mosques and killing Sunni leaders.
The Sunnis in turn cried foul, complaining that not only were they collectively punished because Saddam Hussein had been one of them, but they were being targeted and killed by Shi'ites, who want to create an Iran-style theocracy in Baghdad, ruled by the mullahs of Tehran.
All Shi'ite politicians, after all, had been harbored by Iran in the 1980s, or created by Iran to fight Saddam, such as Abdul Aziz al-Hakim, the leader the Supreme Council for the Islamic Revolution for Iraq (SCIRI). So was Ibrahim al-Jaafari, who withdrew his candidacy for premier. So was Maliki. That is what many believe in the Iraqi Sunni community.
Zarqawi was saying that the United States, Iran and their allies in Iraq were the real reasons for the plight of the Sunnis. He also criticized the Sunnis who have joined the political process since the December elections, saying that they were "agents" and the parliament into which they were elected was "a play".
The Sunni vice president of Iraq, Tarek al-Hashemi, responded to Zarqawi's accusations in a press conference, saying: "I say, yes, we are agents. We are agents for Islam, for the oppressed. We have to defend the future of our people."
Zarqawi responded with a drive-by shooting on Thursday, killing Hashemi's sister as she was leaving her home in Baghdad. Less than two weeks ago, his brother had also been gunned down by Zarqawi's men.
Zarqawi's words are appealing and strong to the young Sunni fighters who have been leading a rebellion against the post-Saddam order since 2003. Their anti-Shi'ite sentiment is being fueled by the attacks on Sunni politicians and places of worship, and the failure of consecutive Shi'ite governments in protecting them.
All they needed was a nudge to encourage them in what they were doing. Zarqawi gave them this, saying, "God Almighty has chosen you [the Sunnis] to conduct holy war in your lands and has opened the doors of paradise for you. So mujahideen, don't dare close those doors." He added, "They are slaughtering your children and shaming your women."
Maliki spoke a very different language, saying, "Our Sunni brothers, by their participation in a broad alliance, have begun to carry responsibilities in the political process." These responsibilities, he said, "will dry up" the sources of terrorism. Fighting the insurgency, he added, would be his government's priority, saying that he hoped to do so by creating "a white front" of Sunnis, Shi'ites and Kurds.
He said he would create a non-sectarian government, to ward off accusations made by observers claiming that he was "too Shi'ite". Meaning, he would give the Ministry of Interior and Defense to non-sectarian officials, unlike his predecessor and boss Jaafari, who had given the Interior to sectarian members of the SCIRI who used it to arrest, torture and settle old scores with the Sunnis.
This has been one of Jaafari's biggest blunders, accounting for much of the bad image he acquired among Sunnis - something Maliki clearly wants to avoid. The new prime minister then addressed the Sunnis directly by playing down fears that Iran was interfering in Iraqi affairs. He thanked neighboring countries such as Iran for sheltering the Iraqi opposition during Saddam's era, saying, "but this does not mean any country can meddle in our affairs". Gratitude did not mean security interference, he said.
In an earlier interview with CNN, Maliki had said that Iraqi security should be ready to take over responsibilities from the Americans and that the US Army should start to withdraw from Iraq in 18 months. Maliki also said his cabinet would be ready in 15 days, adding, "I call on the Iraqis in all of their different factions and ethnic groups to go back to what they were like in Iraq when the relationships were good between them and there was no prejudice based on their differences.
"Our country has many sects, religions and political trends. If the Iraqi people have chosen a system, whether it was Islamic or not, I will respect the people's will," Maliki said.
And by saying so, he was also steering clear of Jaafari, who was regarded as wanting to establish an Islamic regime in Iraq, particularly after his alliance with the rebel/cleric Muqtada al-Sadr. He also said, "The weapons must be in the hands of the state. Their presence in the hands of others [militias] will be the start of problems that will trigger a civil war." This was a clear reference to the weapons of Shi'ite militias such as the SCIRI's Badr Organization and Muqtada's Mehdi Army. Disarming them, it is believed, would please the Sunnis, who claim that they are the real threat against the Sunnis.
The release of the tape was Zarqawi's way of telling the world that he is still alive and still in command of the Iraqi insurgency. After all, the Americans have succeeded, in recent months, to lure some Sunnis into the political process, believing that once in government they will share responsibility in security and blame in chaos, putting the community's full weight on the Sunni insurgency to lay down its arms.
Zarqawi also slammed President George W Bush directly, condemning "the rotten democracy that you brought to Mesopotamia after you promised people hope and stability. All of that went away with the wind."
Meanwhile, as the two men were competing for the minds and hearts of the Iraqis, two Iraqis were killed in a bus bomb in Sadr City in Baghdad. Another four Iraqis, including an eight-year-old girl and her father, were murdered in a drive-by shooting in Baquba, northeast of Baghdad. Two others were killed in Kirkuk. Government workers went on strike in Ramadi to protest the killing of five Iraqis by the US Army. Ibrahim al-Hindawi, a judge who heads a court in Baghdad, was gunned down in the al-Amriyya in the Iraqi capital.
Six Iraqis were also murdered in Karbala. In Mahmoudiyya, south of Baghdad, gunmen killed a primary-school teacher named Salah Hasan Shummar, a scion of the leading Sunni tribe of Iraq that originates from Saudi Arabia and whose notable Ghazi al-Yawer had become interim president in 2004. The Ministry of Defense said that over the past seven days, 123 people had been killed by insurgent attacks and another 153 had been wounded. In all, the insurgency had carried out 469 attacks in the past week.
These numbers and Zarqawi's call to arms against both Americans and Shi'ites are the two major problems Maliki has to face if he succeeds in creating a government, as promised, within 15 days. It is too early to judge whether his assuring statements will do the trick with the Sunni community, which still sees Maliki, because he is Jaafari's right-hand man, as a sectarian politician who will advance only the interests of the Shi'ites.
If he does succeed in gaining everybody's confidence, he still has the hard task of cabinet distribution. Kurdish parliamentarian Mahmud Othman said the Kurds expected six out of the 30 posts in the Maliki government. This would include that of Foreign Affairs, which is currently occupied by Hoshyar Zebari, a Kurd. If not, he added, the Kurds wanted the Ministry of Oil and Finance, claiming that they were not interested in Defense or Interior. The National Accordance Front, a leading Sunni bloc in parliament, said it was "still premature to talk about ministries".
For their part, the Americans are endorsing Maliki's quest to create a cabinet, even more so after Zarqawi's latest remarks, because he is speaking a tolerant language that Washington wants to hear.
Bush's National Security Adviser Stephen Hadley appeared on CBS and replied, when asked whether Maliki would succeed, "The important thing is that the Iraqis think so. He was their choice. He's talked about the importance of disarming militias so he's saying the right things."
US Ambassador to Iraq Zalmay Khalilzad said that "his reputation is as someone who is independent of Iran". Khalilzad, after all, played an important role in bringing Jaafari down, accusing him of wanting to give the ministries of Interior and Defense to sectarian officials and threatening that if this happened, the United States would have to re-evaluate its financial, military and security assistance to Iraq.
The US ambassador added that Maliki saw himself as an Arab nationalist, not just as a Shi'ite politician or a representative of the Shi'ite community. Haytham al-Husayni, a leading member of the Iran-backed SCIRI, also showed optimism when discussing Maliki's cabinet. His friends are describing him as courageous and as a man who sticks to his views.
The only contradictory statement, which shatters much of the flattering talk revolving around Maliki, was made by Khudayr Taher, a US-based Shi'ite writer who has known Maliki since their days in exile in Syria in the 1980s.
Taher wrote an editorial in Arabic saying that he used to meet Maliki at the local library in Syria, where he would be doing research for his master's degree in Arabic literature, pointing out: "I do not claim that we were friends." Taher said Maliki had "modest general knowledge ... he will be a puppet in the hands of Jaafari, Hakim, the Kurds and Sunnis". He added that Maliki "does not believe in democracy because of his ideological commitments" in al-Da'wa Party, claiming that political Islam and democracy do not meet for someone like Maliki.
In a private discussion held when both men were in Syria, Maliki told Taher: "We declare our acceptance of democracy, but in reality, we are tricking them [the Americans] in order to topple Saddam and come to power." Taher writes: "I swear to God that this is exactly what he said!"
Taher adds that Maliki does not believe in the equality of women and will refuse to give any cabinet posts to Iraqi women, unless those imposed by the Kurds. He wraps up by saying that Maliki is anti-American, and has expressed his anti-American views to friends and in private discourse. He predicts that if Maliki succeeds in creating a cabinet, "it will not last long and will collapse after a few months".
The Iraqi prime minister will have a difficult time indeed warding off the accusations of someone like Khudayr Taher, pleasing the Americans while courting the Iranians, and winning the confidence of the Sunnis.
For now, he is on good terms with Washington, but if he is unable to break with Muqtada, the Americans will quickly abandon him. His remarks about disarming the militias, which unless specified also include Sadr's Mehdi Army, mean that he is not too keen about maintaining his friendship with Muqtada. If he loses it, however, how strong will his influence remain within the leading Shi'ite bloc, the United Iraqi Alliance (UIA)?
He is traditionally not on good terms with the SCIRI, although Da'wa and the SCIRI have cooperated in the past for common Shi'ite interests. They remain competitors for leadership in the Shi'ite community. They also have different agendas for the Shi'ites, with Da'wa wanting to establish an Iran-style theocracy that is independent of Iran, while the SCIRI wants to steer Iraq completely in the direction of Tehran.
And if he manages to abandon Muqtada and ally himself instead with the SCIRI (whose leaders had wanted the post of premier for themselves), would this drag the "independent" prime minister in the direction of Iran?
After all, how can he be allied to the SCIRI and not work with the Iranians? And if he does, how would the Americans react? Finally, will he be able to overshadow Zarqawi in the months to come, and get the Sunni insurgency to lay down its arms?
Many questions are still floating in Iraq and none of them can be answered until Maliki begins his job as prime minister. The only fact of today is that Zarqawi will give Maliki - and any future Shi'ite prime minister of Iraq - a great headache.
Sami Moubayed is a Syrian political analyst. He is the author of Steel & Silk: Men and Women Who Shaped Syria 1900-2000 (Cune Press 2005).
(Copyright 2006 Asia Times Online Ltd. All rights reserved. Please contact us about sales, syndication and republishing .)