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Snuffysmith
- The Human Contribution To Atmosphere Circulation Changes
http://www.terradaily.com/reports/The_Huma...on_Changes.html

Virginia Key FL (SPX) May 05, 2006 - A new study published in this week's issue of Nature is the first to show that human activity is altering the circulation of the tropical atmosphere and ocean through global warming.

- Giant Ozone Hole May Be Forming Over Tibet
http://www.terradaily.com/reports/Giant_Oz...Over_Tibet.html

- Worries About The Ozone Layer Are Not Yet Over
http://www.terradaily.com/reports/Worries_...t_Yet_Over.html
Snuffysmith
- China, India Lead 15-Percent Rise In CO2 Emissions
http://www.terradaily.com/reports/China_In..._Emissions.html

United Nations (AFP) May 10, 2006 - Fast-growing China and India helped to drive up global greenhouse gas emissions by 15 percent over 1992-2002, fuelling the effects of climate change, the World Bank said Tuesday. In its annual "Little Green Data Book", the World Bank said industrialised nations led by the United States continue to be the worst offenders for emissions of carbon dioxide (CO2).
Snuffysmith
- Tibet Provides Passage For Chemicals To Reach The Stratosphere
http://www.spacemart.com/reports/Tibet_Pro...ratosphere.html

Pasadena CA (SPX) May 10, 2006 - ASA and university researchers have found that thunderstorms over Tibet provide a main pathway for water vapor and chemicals to travel from Earth’s lower atmosphere - where human activity directly affects atmospheric composition - to the stratosphere, where the protective ozone layer resides.
Snuffysmith
- Haze Is Heating Up The Arctic
http://www.terradaily.com/reports/Haze_Is_...The_Arctic.html

Salt Lake City (UPI) May 11, 2006 - U.S. scientists in Utah say they have found yet another contributing force to polar warming: haze. Arctic climate already is known to be particularly prone to global warming caused by greenhouse gases. Now, a University of Utah study finds the Arctic haze -- consisting of particulate pollution from midlatitude cities -- mixes with thin clouds, enabling them to become more efficient at trapping heat.
Snuffysmith
- Recent Hurricane Upsurge A Weak Link To Global Warming
http://www.terradaily.com/reports/Recent_H...al_Warming.html

Washington DC (SPX) May 11, 2006 - New research calls into question the linkage between major Atlantic hurricanes and global warming. That is one of the conclusions from a University of Virginia study to appear in the May 11, 2006 issue of the journal Geophysical Research Letters.
Snuffysmith
Climate Is Cited as Key to Extinctions

By Guy Gugliotta

New evidence from Canada and Alaska suggests that climate change, rather than human hunting, may have played the key role in a great die-off of mammoths, horses and other large North American mammals that began more than 10,000 years ago.

To view the entire article, go to http://www.washingtonpost.com/wp-dyn/conte...er=emailarticle
Snuffysmith
- Pollution, Greenhouse Gases And Climate Clash In South Asia
http://www.terradaily.com/reports/Pollutio...South_Asia.html

San Diego CA (SPX) May 12, 2006 - A new analysis by scientists at Scripps Institution of Oceanography at the University of California, San Diego, has produced surprising results showing how air pollution, global warming-producing greenhouse gases and natural fluctuations in the climate may have a range of significant consequences on the world's most populous region.
Snuffysmith
- Dragonfly Migration Resembles That Of Birds
http://www.terradaily.com/reports/Dragonfl...t_Of_Birds.html

Princeton NJ (SPX) May 16, 2006 - Scientists have discovered that migrating dragonflies and songbirds exhibit many of the same behaviors, suggesting the rules that govern such long-distance travel may be simpler and more ancient than was once thought.

- Contaminants May Cause Renal Lesions In Polar Bears
http://www.terradaily.com/reports/Contamin...olar_Bears.html

- Non-Coding RNAs Help Silence The Mammalian Transcription
http://www.terradaily.com/reports/Non_Codi...nscription.html

- Larval-Stage Organisms Effect Measurements Of Marine Biodiversity
http://www.terradaily.com/reports/Larval_S...odiversity.html
Snuffysmith
- Global Warming May Have Damaged Coral Reefs Forever
http://www.terradaily.com/reports/Global_W...fs_Forever.html

Newcastle Upon Tyne, UK (SPX) May 17, 2006 - Global warming has had a more devastating effect on some of the world's finest coral reefs than previously assumed, suggests the first report to show the long-term impact of sea temperature rise on reef coral and fish communities.


- Fabled Equatorial African Icecaps To Disappear
http://www.terradaily.com/reports/Fabled_E..._Disappear.html

Washington DC (SPX) May 17, 2006 - Fabled equatorial icecaps will disappear within two decades, because of global warming, a study British and Ugandan scientists has found. In a paper to be published 17 May in Geophysical Research Letters, they report results from the first survey in a decade of glaciers in the Rwenzori Mountains of East Africa.
Snuffysmith
- Photosynthetic Trends In Northern Circumpolar High Latitudes
http://www.terradaily.com/reports/Photosyn..._Latitudes.html

Falmouth MA (SPX) May 18, 2006 - Using time series analyses of a 22-year record of satellite observations across the northern circumpolar high latitudes, scientists at the Woods Hole Research Center are assessing trends in vegetation photosynthetic activity.


- The Risks Of Living In Low-Lying Coastal Areas
http://www.terradaily.com/reports/The_Risk...stal_Areas.html
Snuffysmith
- Anxious wait for feared volcano eruption in Indonesia
http://www.terradaily.com/reports/Anxious_..._Indonesia.html

Mount Merapi (AFP) May 17, 2006 - Searing heat clouds belched from Indonesia's Mount Merapi volcano Wednesday as scientists waited anxiously for a feared eruption that has forced thousands of villagers from their homes.


- SMS glitch mars testing of new tsunami warning system
http://www.terradaily.com/reports/SMS_glit...ing_system.html

Bangkok (AFP) May 17, 2006 - Delayed SMS messages in Thailand marred Wednesday's otherwise successful trial of a regional tsunami warning system by dozens of countries across the Pacific.


- DLR And EADS To Collaborate On New Earthsat Mission
http://www.spacedaily.com/reports/DLR_And_...at_Mission.html

Berlin, Germany (SPX) May 18, 2006 - The German Space Agency DLR and EADS Astrium announced Wednesday at the ILA-Airshow their intention to build a new radar satellite called TanDEM-X. TanDEM-X, scheduled for launch in 2009, along with the almost identical radar satellite TerraSAR-X, to be launched in autumn this year, will form a high-precision interferometer.
Snuffysmith
- Linking Climate Change Across Time Scales
http://www.terradaily.com/reports/Linking_...ime_Scales.html

Woods Hole MA (SPX) May 19, 2006 - What do month-to-month changes in temperature have to do with century-to-century changes in temperature? At first it might seem like not much.
Snuffysmith
Earth's Climate Warming Abruptly, Scientist Says

By Doug Struck

COLUMBUS, Ohio -- Earth's climate is undergoing an abrupt change, ending a cooler period that began with a swift "cold snap" in the tropics 5,200 years ago that coincided with the start of cities, the beginning of calendars and the biblical great flood, a leading expert on glaciers has concluded.

To view the entire article, go to http://www.washingtonpost.com/wp-dyn/conte...er=emailarticle
Snuffysmith
Global Warming's Real Inconvenient Truth

By Robert J. Samuelson

Global warming is an engineering problem, not a moral crusade. Until we solve the problem, it's hypocrisy to pretend we can stop global warming.

To view the entire article, go to http://www.washingtonpost.com/wp-dyn/conte...er=emailarticle
Snuffysmith
http://www.washingtonpost.com/wp-dyn/conte...6071001145.html

A Sorry Record
Washington Post Editorial
Waiting for breakthrough technologies is not the way to reduce greenhouse gases
Snuffysmith
Terra Daily Express - July 13, 2006
www.terradaily.com
24/7 Coverage Of Earth in the 21st Century

WATER WORLD

+ Heavy Fishing Blamed For Jellyfish Explosion Off Namibia

London (AFP) Jul 11, 2006
Scientists in Scotland on Tuesday blamed heavy fishing for an "explosion" in jellyfish in the Benguela Current that streams past Namibia in the South Atlantic Ocean.

AFRICA NEWS

+ Illicit Migrant Unites Africa-EU

Rabat, Morocco (UPI) Jul 12, 2006
How do you stop millions of jobless, hungry, frightened war-wary Africans from trekking north across the Sahara Desert into Morocco and from there hopefully to Europe; braving along the way modern day traders in human lives, treacherous seas they navigate aboard un-seaworthy death traps and tens of thousands of security personnel deployed with the sole purpose of stopping them?

CIVIL NUCLEAR

+ Environmentalists Arrested In Russia After Anti-Nuclear Protest

Saint-Petersburg, Russia (AFP) Jul 11, 2006
Thirteen environmental activists were arrested Tuesday in Russia after staging an anti-nuclear protest in Saint Petersburg, where leaders of G8 nations will debate energy policy at a weekend summit.

FROTH AND BUBBLE

+ Hong Kong Leader Seeks Public Help In Clearing Up Pollution

Hong Kong (AFP) Jul 10, 2006
Hong Kong's leader Donald Tsang Monday pledged to tackle the city's worsening air pollution and urged the public to do its bit in the clean-up. Tsang said the government had done much to clean up the air but acknowledged more needed to be done.

ENERGY TECH

+ Canada To Defend Its Oil And Uranium Exports At G8 Talks

Ottawa (AFP) Jul 07, 2006
Canada will look to defend its massive energy exports at a Group of Eight industrialized nations summit in St. Petersburg, Russia mid-July, officials said Friday. "The issue of energy, energy security, energy supply is very important to Canada," a senior official told reporters at a summit briefing in Ottawa.

SHAKE AND BLOW

+ Indonesia Downgrades Volcano Alert

Jakarta (AFP) Jul 12, 2006
Indonesian scientists on Wednesday fully downgraded the alert status of Mount Merapi from code red but warned residents to still stay away from the volcano's peak, an official said. "The alert status was downgraded in view of the decreasing activity," said an official at the volcanology office in Yogyakarta, the main city south of Merapi.

DISASTER MANAGEMENT

+ India And Pakistan Ink Aid Pact Nine Months After Killer Quake

New Delhi (AFP) Jul 11, 2006
India Tuesday approved a donation of 25 million dollars to buy building materials for Pakistani Kashmir nine months after a major earthquake killed 73,000 people there. The Indian foreign ministry said the assistance was part of a pledge made at an UN-sponsored donors' conference for the victims of the October 2005 earthquake which razed tens of thousands of homes in Pakistan.

+ Senate Votes to overhaul US Emergency Agency

WOOD PILE

+ WWF Warns Over Pulp Giant In Indonesia

Jakarta (AFP) Jul 11, 2006
Conservation group WWF said Tuesday that one of the world's largest paper and pulp companies was failing to live up to pledges to help protect some of Indonesia's most important remaining forests. A new WWF monitoring report showed that Asia Pulp and Paper (APP) was threatening crucial forests despite commitments made to its buyers.

FLORA AND FAUNA

+ Hot And Heavy Dinos Rules The Earth

Gainesville FL (SPX) Jul 13, 2006
If you think dinosaurs are hot today, just think back to about 110 million years ago when they really ran hot and heavy. One of the larger animals, a behemoth called Sauroposeidon proteles, weighed close to 120,000 pounds as an adult. Now, a new study led by the University of Florida suggests it may have had a body temperature close to 48 degrees Celsius.

+ One Dose of Radiation Causes 30 Percent Spongy Bone Loss
+ Trees Could Grow In Antarctica Within Century Says Scientist

GPS NEWS

+ Difficult Road Ahead For Russian Space Navigation

Moscow, Russia (RIA) Jul 13, 2006
The Russian satellite navigation system, which, as the name suggests, monitors ship and air traffic, is itself in need of effective state monitoring.

+ Next-Generation Tracking Will Change Supply Chain Management

CHIP TECH

+ Researchers Set Speed Record For Silicon-Based Chips

Atlanta GA (SPX) Jul 13, 2006
A research team from IBM and the Georgia Institute of Technology has demonstrated the first silicon-germanium transistor able to operate at frequencies above 500 GHz. Though the record performance was attained at extremely cold temperatures, the results suggest that the upper bound for performance in silicon-germanium devices may be higher than originally expected.

SPACEDAILY

+ Astronauts Test Shuttle Repair Material In Final Spacewalk

Houston, Texas (AFP) Jul 12, 2006
Two spacewalking Discovery astronauts on Wednesday tested shuttle repair material created after the Columbia disaster as part of NASA's efforts to prevent another tragedy. In the last of three spacewalks, astronauts Piers Sellers and Mike Fossum floated into Discovery's payload bay to paste a sealant on pre-damaged heat shield samples to test the material's performance in zero gravity.

+ Russia Launches Inflatable Test Satellite From Urals
+ Flying Over The Cloudy World
+ Mars Opportunity Rover Getting Closer to Victoria Crater
+ Cassini Spots Another New Tiny Saturn Moon
+ NASA To Study Plants To Help Astronauts Grow Food In Space
+ NASA Selects Consortium For Education Cooperative
+ VLT Catches Supernova Between Galaxies
+ Boeing Puts Aircraft Market At 2.6 Trillion Dollars
+ Rolls-Royce And Japanese Materials Institute To Develop Super Alloys

MILITARY COMMUNICATIONS

+ SpaceDev To Provide Antenna Mechanisms For MUOS Program

Poway CA (SPX) Jul 13, 2006
SpaceDev, subsidiary Starsys, Inc., was recently awarded a contract by Lockheed Martin to provide antenna pointing gimbals for the Mobile User Objective System (MUOS) program, which is under direction of the U.S. Navy. MUOS is a next-generation narrowband tactical satellite communications system designed to significantly improve ground communications for U.S. forces on the move.

CYBER WARS

+ US State Department Fends Off Asian Hacker Attack

Washington(AFP) Jul 12, 2006
The US State Department said it was conducting a forensic probe Wednesday after hackers in East Asia tapped into computer systems at its Washington headquarters and diplomatic posts in the region.

RAY GUNS

+ NGC Develops Skyguard Laser Defense System For Local Defense

Redondo Beach CA (SPX) Jul 13, 2006
Northrop Grumman has developed the Skyguard laser-based air defense system for U.S. government agencies and allies that require near-term defense against short-range ballistic missiles, short- and long-range rockets, artillery shells, mortars, unmanned aerial vehicles and cruise missiles.

+ THAAD System Intercepts Live Missile Target
+ Armed Services Panel Chairman Vows To Boost BMD

NUKEWARS

+ Iran To Be Referred To Security Council

London (UPI) Jul 12, 2006
Iran is to be referred back to the United Nations Security Council following its failure to respond quickly enough to an incentive package aimed at defusing the current nuclear dispute, world powers announced Wednesday.

+ Oil Prices Rise As Iran Referred Back To UN Security Council
+ Iran Says Jailed French And German Nationals Risk New Charges
+ US Cool To China-Russia Resolution On North Korea
+ US Military Exercise Violates North Koreans Sovereignty
+ South Korea Presses North Korea Not To Fire More Missiles
+ Japan Says No Plans To Strike North Korea
Snuffysmith
http://www.opinionjournal.com/cc/?id=110008646




CROSS COUNTRY

Hurricane in the Hamptons
Long Island needs to be prepared for the inevitable.

BY NICOLE GELINAS
Thursday, July 13, 2006 12:01 a.m.

NEW YORK--Hurricanes bring obvious hazards like wind and water, but one of the obstacles preventing sensible hurricane preparation is a moral hazard. The evidence can be found here on the eastern tip of New York state.
Long Islanders aren't prepared for hurricanes--and they should be. True, Long Island isn't New Orleans. While it juts out right into the potential path of vicious Atlantic storms, chances are slim that a storm would deluge most of its 2.8 million residents with Katrina-style flooding, because the island's "spine" is mostly along high ground, according to meteorologist Mike Wiley, of the National Weather Service.

Even so, parts of Long Island do resemble the Mississippi coast, where nearly 400,000 residents saw their homes razed or damaged by last year's hurricane. Tens of thousands of eastern Long Islanders live in vulnerable coastal areas, where a major hurricane would trigger home-destroying storm surges. Even inland, such a storm--a category 2 or 3, say--would cause miles of wind damage, requiring billions of dollars in repairs and leaving many homes uninhabitable for weeks or months.

Sooner or later, a big storm hitting Long Island is inevitable. The current generation of Long Islanders, notes Mr. Wiley, has grown up in a placid weather cycle, thanks to cool ocean temperatures. But the oceans have been warming now for several years, fueling more intense storms. The category 3 hurricane that slammed into the island in 1938 preceded an earlier warming cycle; five storms, ranging from mild to moderate intensity, hit the island from the '50s through 1960. It's only a matter of time before one finds the path up the coast again--and these days, due to erosion and building, the island now has fewer natural barriers, such as sand dunes, to shield it from the worst damage.

Given the island's history and geography, coastal dwellers have no excuse for lack of preparation. But unprepared they are. Fewer than half of the nearly 40,000 residents of the vulnerable city of Long Beach carry federal flood insurance, necessary to rebuild water-damaged homes after a storm. Middle-class Freeport, where 40,000 people live, has flood-insurance coverage of only 20%, while tony Southampton has a coverage rate of 16%, as this newspaper recently reported.





The East End boasts lots of multimillion-dollar second homes, and many coastal residents have the resources to repair and rebuild. But many don't: In coastal Long Beach, for instance, the average family earns a solidly middle-class $57,000, and the average home is worth under $300,000.
New York state insurance commissioner Howard Mills has ranged all over Long Island recently, explaining to such homeowners what they must do, including checking insurance policies and, above all, urging them to buy the (inexpensive) federal flood insurance. But "there's no indication that people are buying," he tells me. Part of the complacency is human nature: People simply don't think bad things will happen to them.

But there's another reason: "It's hard to convince [homeowners] that they need insurance when they see the government will bail them out." The federal flood insurance itself, offering people coverage that the private market refuses to support, already encourages people to live in vulnerable areas by insulating them from the full market cost of that choice. But now, seeing what happened with Katrina, people will figure--correctly or incorrectly--that if a disaster is big enough, the feds will give them money anyway.

Mr. Mills, at least, deserves kudos for trying to emphasize that people are still responsible for themselves. And he also deserves credit for not calling for even more government intervention in the insurance markets, as some major insurers, citing heavily concentrated risk, jack up prices or pull back from offering even wind coverage on parts of Long Island.

In particular, Mr. Mills isn't advocating that New York follow Florida's example and offer vulnerable coastal residents windstorm insurance, paid for by the state, to cushion them from the risk-based insurance premiums private insurers demand. It's vital that New York avoid Florida's mistake: The latter's state insurance fund, after a decade's worth of hard storms, faced a $1.7 billion deficit this year, which it papered over with debt financing and an insurance levy that affects all homeowners, even those who live inland.





Worse, state-subsidized insurance has only encouraged heavy development along Florida's three vulnerable coastlines--development the free market would not support. And now, when Florida's insurance program tries minimally at this late date to protect taxpayers by making sensible changes, including its recent decision to stop covering builders' risk on new construction in the hardest hit areas, it meets a severe political backlash.
But in New York, Mr. Mills simply notes that "the free market has dealt with the risk of catastrophe" in the state "very well" and that insurers, since they require homeowners to take elementary steps to protect their property, may actually reduce potential storm damage.

Of course, the federal flood insurance badly needs reform. But until it's fixed, vulnerable Long Islanders should buy it and provide some protection for themselves.
Ms. Gelinas is a contributing editor to City Journal, from whose forthcoming issue this was adapted.


Copyright © 2006 Dow Jones & Company, Inc. All Rights Reserved.
Snuffysmith
From: http://www.maize-energy.blogspot.com/

Naomi Oreskes asks wrong climate question
By David Wojick

The first rule of surveys is "ask the right question," but Naomi Oreskes did not read the book. Oreskes did a survey of the scientific literature on climate change and claims to have found that the science is settled. She is wrong, because she asked the wrong question.

Her claim appears most recently in "Global Warming-Signed, Sealed and Delivered-Scientists agree: The Earth is warming, and human activities are the principal cause" by Naomi Oreskes, a history of science professor at the University of California San Diego, in an op ed in the Los Angeles Times, July 24, 2006 (http://www.latimes.com/news/opinion/la-oe-oreskes24jul24,0,823343.story?coll=la-opinion-rightrail).

This study is news, not because it is new -- it is two years old - but because it came up in a hearing of the House Energy and Commerce Committee. Some claim that the Oreskes study was refuted, citing the Wall Street Journal, and she fired back in the LA Times. Readers can go the LA Times piece for the gory details.

But here is what is wrong with the Orestes study. As a student of the history of science, she really doesn't understand very well how science actually functions.

She summarizes her findings as follows:

"Not a single paper in a large sample of peer-reviewed scientific journals between 1993 and 2003 refuted the consensus position, summarized by the National Academy of Sciences, that 'most of the observed warming of the last 50 years is likely to have been due to the increase in greenhouse gas concentrations.'"

The weasel word is "refute." As a serious student of the climate change debate, I agree that I have never seen a single paper that claimed to refute the theory of human induced warming. But suppose we ask the right question-are there any papers that cast doubt on the theory of human induced warming? The answer is sure, plenty, maybe most.

Orestes' refutation question shows a deep misunderstanding of the climate science debate. There is no single test, experiment or observation that is going to either refute or prove the human warming theory. But individual tests, experiments and observations are what get published in scientific papers. There is no killer scientific argument here, so no wonder Orestes did not find one.

Dos this mean there is any kind of consensus on the science? By no means. In fact, the debate has widened in recent years, as the number of alternative theories to human induced warming has grown. The science is diverging, not converging on a single explanation for the warming.

Presuming, of course, that there is any warming, which is still an active subject of research. Note too that the temperature record only shows warming in about 20 of the last 50 years, something else we are trying to explain. The $1.7 billion U.S. climate change research program is a catalog of alternative theories, arguments and counter arguments. It's not a consensus.

For example, and to return to Orestes' bungled literature survey, consider solar variability. Numerous papers report strong statistical correlations with various aspects of solar output and the earth's temperature record. Numerous papers explore how this solar variability might drive temperature. In short' this is a very active area of research.

But would any of these papers show up in Orestes' survey? No, because none of them claims to "refute" the human induced warming theory. They merely support the competing theory of solar variability as the cause of the warming. By the same token, there are no papers that refute the theory of solar variability. Climate science is not about refutation, it is about assembling a million tiny pieces of research to try to figure out the world's most complex system. The Orestes approach is mind-bogglingly naive.

If anyone wants to see some of the thousands of papers that Orestes missed, I recommend http://www.co2science.org. The subject index leads to an endless supply of plain language summaries of scientific papers that cast doubt on the theory of human induced warming, all sorted by topic. Maybe Orestes should have looked here before publishing her silly findings
----------------------------------------
--
David E. Wojick, Ph.D.
Climatechangedebate.org
The http://www.Climatechangedebate.org listserv provides intelligent (well not always) debate from all sides. Sign up today.
http://www.bydesign.com/powervision/resume.html provides my bio and client list.
Snuffysmith
http://www.alternet.org/envirohealth/41025/

Shortcut To Catastrophe

By George Monbiot, AlterNet. Posted September 1, 2006.


A prominent scientist's idea to re-engineer the atmosphere in order to cool the earth could be as dangerous as climate change. Tools
Challenging a Nobel laureate over a matter of science is not something you do lightly. I have hesitated and backed off, read and re-read his paper, but now I believe I can state with confidence that Paul Crutzen, winner of the 1995 prize for chemistry, has overlooked a critical scientific issue.

Crutzen is, as you would expect, a brilliant man. He was one of the atmospheric chemists who worked out how high-level ozone is formed and destroyed. He knows more than almost anyone about the impacts of pollutants in the atmosphere. This is what makes his omission so odd.

At the beginning of August, he published an essay in the journal Climatic Change. He argues that the world's response to climate change has so far been "grossly disappointing." Stabilizing carbon dioxide concentrations in the atmosphere, he asserts, requires a global reduction in emissions of between 60 and 80 percent. But at the moment "this looks like a pious wish." So, he proposes, we must start considering the alternatives, by which he means re-engineering the atmosphere in order to cool the earth.

He suggests we use either giant guns or balloons to inject sulphur into the stratosphere, 10 kilometers or more above the surface of the earth. Sulphur dioxide at that height turns into tiny particles -- or aerosols -- of sulphate. These reflect sunlight back into space, counteracting the warming caused by manmade climate change.

One of the crueller paradoxes of climate change is that it is being accelerated by reducing certain kinds of pollution. Filthy factories cause acid rain and ill health, but they also help to shield us from the sun, by filling the air with particles. As we have started to clean some of them up, we have exposed ourselves to more solar radiation. One model suggests that a complete removal of these pollutants from the atmosphere could increase the world's temperature by 0.8 degrees.

The virtue of Paul Crutzen's scheme is that sulphate particles released so far above the surface of the earth stay airborne for much longer than they do at lower altitudes. In order to compensate for a doubling of carbon dioxide concentrations (which could happen this century), he calculates that we would need to fire some 5 million tons of sulphur into the stratosphere every year. This corresponds to roughly 10% of the sulphate currently entering the atmosphere.

Crutzen recognises that there are problems. The sulphate particles would slightly reduce the thickness of the ozone layer. They would cause some whitening of the sky. Most dangerously, his scheme could be used by governments to help justify their failure to cut carbon emissions: if the atmosphere could one day be fixed by some heavy artillery and a few technicians, why bother to impose unpopular policies?

His paper has already caused plenty of controversy. Other scientists have pointed out that even if rising carbon dioxide levels did not cause global warming, they would still be an ecological disaster. For example, one study (PDF) shows that as the gas dissolves in seawater, by 2050 the oceans could become too acid for shells to form, obliterating much of the plankton on which the marine ecosystem depends.

In Crutzen's scheme, the carbon dioxide levels are not diminished. It would also be necessary to keep firing sulphur into the sky for hundreds of years. The scheme would be extremely expensive, so it is hard to imagine that governments would sustain it through all the economic and political crises likely to take place in that time. But what I find puzzling is this: that by far the most damaging impact of sulphate pollution hasn't even been mentioned -- by him or, as far as I can discover, any of his critics.

In 2002, the Journal of Climate published an astonishing proposition: that the great droughts which had devastated the Sahel region of Africa had been caused in part by sulphate pollution in Europe and North America. Our smoke, the paper suggested, was partly responsible for the famines which killed hundreds of thousands of people in the 1970s and 1980s.

By reducing the size of the droplets in clouds, thereby making them more reflective, the sulphate particles lowered the temperature of the sea's surface in the northern hemisphere. The result was to shift the Intertropical Convergence Zone southwards. This zone is an area close to the equator in which moist air rises and condenses into rain. The Sahel, which covers countries such as Ethiopia, Sudan, Chad, Niger, Burkina Faso and Senegal, is at the northern limits of the zone. As the rain belt was pushed south, those countries dried up. As a result of the clean air acts, between 1970 and 1996 sulphur emissions in the US fell by 39%. This appears to have helped the North Atlantic to warm, allowing the rains to return to the Sahel in the 1990s.

Since then, several studies -- published in the Proceedings of the National Academy of Sciences, Geophysical Research Letters and the Journal of Geophysical Research -- have confirmed these findings. They show that the 40% reduction in rainfall in the Sahel -- which has "few if any parallels in the 20th century record anywhere on Earth" -- is explicable only when natural variations are assisted by sulphate aerosols.

We killed those people.

I cannot say whether or not Crutzen's scheme would have a similar outcome. It is true that he proposes to use less sulphur than the industrialized nations pumped into the atmosphere, but does this matter if the reflective effect is just as great?

Another paper I have read lists seven indirect impacts of aerosols on the climate system. Which, if any, will be dominant? What will their effects on rainfall be? Crutzen suggests that in order to keep the particles airborne for as long as possible they should be released "near the tropical upward branch of the stratospheric circulation system."

Does this mean that they will not be evenly distributed around the world? If so, will they shift weather systems around as our uneven patterns of pollution have done? I don't know the answers, but I am staggered by the fact that the questions are not even being asked.

I am not suggesting that they have been deliberately overlooked. It seems more likely that they have been forgotten for a familiar reason: that this disaster took place in Africa. Would we have neglected them if the famines had happened in Europe? The story of industrialization is like "The Picture of Dorian Gray." While the rich nations have enjoyed perennial youth, the cost of their debaucheries -- slavery, theft, colonialism, sulphur pollution, climate change -- is visited on another continent, where the forgotten picture becomes ever uglier.

The only responsible way to tackle climate change is to reduce the amount of climate-changing gases we emit. To make this possible, we must suppress the political and economic costs of the necessary cut. What is surely clear is that there is no uncomplicated shortcut. By re-engineering the planet's systems we could risk invoking as great a catastrophe as the one we are trying to prevent.

George Monbiot's newest book, Heat: How To Stop The Planet From Burning, is forthcoming from Penguin on Sept. 28. Read more of his writings at Monbiot.com. This article originally appeared in the Guardian.
Snuffysmith
HOT & COLD MEDIA SPIN CYCLE:

A CHALLENGE TO JOURNALISTS WHO COVER GLOBAL WARMING



SENATOR JAMES INHOFE

CHAIRMAN, SENATE ENVIRONMENT AND PUBLIC WORKS COMMITTEE



SENATE FLOOR SPEECH DELIVERED

MONDAY SEPTEMBER 25, 2006
Speech Web link: http://www.epw.senate.gov/speechitem.cfm?party=rep&id=263759

Press Release Web link: http://epw.senate.gov/pressitem.cfm?party=rep&id=263746

I am going to speak today about the most media-hyped environmental issue of all time, global warming. I have spoken more about global warming than any other politician in Washington today. My speech will be a bit different from the previous seven floor speeches, as I focus not only on the science, but on the media’s coverage of climate change.

Global Warming -- just that term evokes many members in this chamber, the media, Hollywood elites and our pop culture to nod their heads and fret about an impending climate disaster. As the senator who has spent more time educating about the actual facts about global warming, I want to address some of the recent media coverage of global warming and Hollywood’s involvement in the issue. And of course I will also discuss former Vice President Al Gore’s movie “An Inconvenient Truth.”

Since 1895, the media has alternated between global cooling and warming scares during four separate and sometimes overlapping time periods. From 1895 until the 1930’s the media pedaled a coming ice age.

From the late 1920’s until the 1960’s they warned of global warming. From the 1950’s until the 1970’s they warned us again of a coming ice age. This makes modern global warming the fourth estate’s fourth attempt to promote opposing climate change fears during the last 100 years.

Recently, advocates of alarmism have grown increasingly desperate to try to convince the public that global warming is the greatest moral issue of our generation. Just last week, the vice president of London’s Royal Society sent a chilling letter to the media encouraging them to stifle the voices of scientists skeptical of climate alarmism.

During the past year, the American people have been served up an unprecedented parade of environmental alarmism by the media and entertainment industry, which link every possible weather event to global warming. The year 2006 saw many major organs of the media dismiss any pretense of balance and objectivity on climate change coverage and instead crossed squarely into global warming advocacy.

SUMMARY OF LATEST DEVELOPMENTS OF MANMADE GLOBAL WARMING HOCKEY STICK

First, I would like to summarize some of the recent developments in the controversy over whether or not humans have created a climate catastrophe. One of the key aspects that the United Nations, environmental groups and the media have promoted as the “smoking gun” of proof of catastrophic global warming is the so-called ‘hockey stick’ temperature graph by climate scientist Michael Mann and his colleagues.

This graph purported to show that temperatures in the Northern Hemisphere remained relatively stable over 900 years, then spiked upward in the 20th century presumably due to human activity. Mann, who also co-publishes a global warming propaganda blog reportedly set up with the help of an environmental group, had his “Hockey Stick” come under severe scrutiny.

The “hockey stick” was completely and thoroughly broken once and for all in 2006. Several years ago, two Canadian researchers tore apart the statistical foundation for the hockey stick. In 2006, both the National Academy of Sciences and an independent researcher further refuted the foundation of the “hockey stick.” http://epw.senate.gov/pressitem.cfm?party=rep&id=257697

The National Academy of Sciences report reaffirmed the existence of the Medieval Warm Period from about 900 AD to 1300 AD and the Little Ice Age from about 1500 to 1850. Both of these periods occurred long before the invention of the SUV or human industrial activity could have possibly impacted the Earth’s climate. In fact, scientists believe the Earth was warmer than today during the Medieval Warm Period, when the Vikings grew crops in Greenland.

Climate alarmists have been attempting to erase the inconvenient Medieval Warm Period from the Earth’s climate history for at least a decade. David Deming, an assistant professor at the University of Oklahoma’s College of Geosciences, can testify first hand about this effort.

Dr. Deming was welcomed into the close-knit group of global warming believers after he published a paper in 1995 that noted some warming in the 20th century. Deming says he was subsequently contacted by a prominent global warming alarmist and told point blank “We have to get rid of the Medieval Warm Period.” When the “Hockey Stick” first appeared in 1998, it did just that.

END OF LITTLE ICE AGE MEANS WARMING

The media have missed the big pieces of the puzzle when it comes to the Earth’s temperatures and mankind’s carbon dioxide (C02) emissions. It is very simplistic to feign horror and say the one degree Fahrenheit temperature increase during the 20th century means we are all doomed. First of all, the one degree Fahrenheit rise coincided with the greatest advancement of living standards, life expectancy, food production and human health in the history of our planet. So it is hard to argue that the global warming we experienced in the 20th century was somehow negative or part of a catastrophic trend.

Second, what the climate alarmists and their advocates in the media have continued to ignore is the fact that the Little Ice Age, which resulted in harsh winters which froze New York Harbor and caused untold deaths, ended about 1850. So trying to prove man-made global warming by comparing the well-known fact that today's temperatures are warmer than during the Little Ice Age is akin to comparing summer to winter to show a catastrophic temperature trend.

In addition, something that the media almost never addresses are the holes in the theory that C02 has been the driving force in global warming.

Alarmists fail to adequately explain why temperatures began warming at the end of the Little Ice Age in about 1850, long before man-made CO2 emissions could have impacted the climate. Then about 1940, just as man-made CO2 emissions rose sharply, the temperatures began a decline that lasted until the 1970’s, prompting the media and many scientists to fear a coming ice age.

Let me repeat, temperatures got colder after C02 emissions exploded. If C02 is the driving force of global climate change, why do so many in the media ignore the many skeptical scientists who cite these rather obvious inconvenient truths?

SIXTY SCIENTISTS

My skeptical views on man-made catastrophic global warming have only strengthened as new science comes in. There have been recent findings in peer-reviewed literature over the last few years showing that the Antarctic is getting colder and the ice is growing and a new study in Geophysical Research Letters found that the sun was responsible for 50% of 20th century warming.

Recently, many scientists, including a leading member of the Russian Academy of Sciences, predicted long-term global cooling may be on the horizon due to a projected decrease in the sun’s output.

A letter sent to the Canadian Prime Minister on April 6 of this year by 60 prominent scientists who question the basis for climate alarmism, clearly explains the current state of scientific knowledge on global warming.

The 60 scientists wrote: http://www.canada.com/nationalpost/financi...be-4db87559d605

“If, back in the mid-1990s, we knew what we know today about climate, Kyoto would almost certainly not exist, because we would have concluded it was not necessary.”

The letter also noted:

“‘Climate change is real’ is a meaningless phrase used repeatedly by activists to convince the public that a climate catastrophe is looming and humanity is the cause. Neither of these fears is justified. Global climate changes occur all the time due to natural causes and the human impact still remains impossible to distinguish from this natural ‘noise.’”

COMPUTER MODELS THREATEN EARTH

One of the ways alarmists have pounded this mantra of “consensus” on global warming into our pop culture is through the use of computer models which project future calamity. But the science is simply not there to place so much faith in scary computer model scenarios which extrapolate the current and projected buildup of greenhouse gases in the atmosphere and conclude that the planet faces certain doom.

Dr. Vincent Gray, a research scientist and a 2001 reviewer with the UN’s Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC) has noted,

“The effects of aerosols, and their uncertainties, are such as to nullify completely the reliability of any of the climate models.”

Earlier this year, the director of the International Arctic Research Center in Fairbanks Alaska, testified to Congress that highly publicized climate models showing a disappearing Arctic were nothing more than “science fiction.”

In fact, after years of hearing about the computer generated scary scenarios about the future of our planet, I now believe that the greatest climate threat we face may be coming from alarmist computer models.

This threat is originating from the software installed on the hard drives of the publicity seeking climate modelers.

It is long past the time for us to separate climate change fact from hysteria.

KYOTO: ECONOMIC PAIN FOR NO CLIMATE GAIN

One final point on the science of climate change: I am approached by many in the media and others who ask, “What if you are wrong to doubt the dire global warming predictions? Will you be able to live with yourself for opposing the Kyoto Protocol?”

My answer is blunt. The history of the modern environmental movement is chock full of predictions of doom that never came true. We have all heard the dire predictions about the threat of overpopulation, resource scarcity, mass starvation, and the projected death of our oceans. None of these predictions came true, yet it never stopped the doomsayers from continuing to predict a dire environmental future.

The more the eco-doomsayers’ predictions fail, the more the eco-doomsayers predict.

These failed predictions are just one reason I respect the serious scientists out there today debunking the latest scaremongering on climate change. Scientists like MIT’s Richard Lindzen, former Colorado State climatologist Roger Pielke, Sr., the University of Alabama’s Roy Spencer and John Christy, Virginia State Climatologist Patrick Michaels, Colorado State University’s William Gray, atmospheric physicist S. Fred Singer, Willie Soon of the Harvard-Smithsonian Center for Astrophysics, Oregon State climatologist George Taylor and astrophysicist Sallie Baliunas, to name a few.

But more importantly, it is the global warming alarmists who should be asked the question -- “What if they are correct about man-made catastrophic global warming?” -- because they have come up with no meaningful solution to their supposed climate crisis in the two decades that they have been hyping this issue.

If the alarmists truly believe that man-made greenhouse gas emissions are dooming the planet, then they must face up to the fact that symbolism does not solve a supposed climate crisis.

The alarmists freely concede that the Kyoto Protocol, even if fully ratified and complied with, would not have any meaningful impact on global temperatures. And keep in mind that Kyoto is not even close to being complied with by many of the nations that ratified it, including 13 of the EU-15 nations that are not going to meet their emission reduction promises.

Many of the nations that ratified Kyoto are now realizing what I have been saying all along:

The Kyoto Protocol is a lot of economic pain for no climate gain.

Legislation that has been proposed in this chamber would have even less of a temperature effect than Kyoto’s undetectable impact. And more recently, global warming alarmists and the media have been praising California for taking action to limit C02. But here again: This costly feel-good California measure, which is actually far less severe than Kyoto, will have no impact on the climate -- only the economy.

Symbolism does not solve a climate crisis.

In addition, we now have many environmentalists and Hollywood celebrities, like Laurie David, who have been advocating measures like changing standard light bulbs in your home to fluorescents to help avert global warming. Changing to more energy-efficient light bulbs is a fine thing to do, but to somehow imply we can avert a climate disaster by these actions is absurd.

Once again, symbolism does not solve a climate crisis.

But this symbolism may be hiding a dark side. While greenhouse gas limiting proposals may cost the industrialized West trillions of dollars, it is the effect on the developing world’s poor that is being lost in this debate.

The Kyoto Protocol’s post 2012 agenda which mandates that the developing world be subjected to restrictions on greenhouse gases could have the potential to severely restrict development in regions of the world like Africa, Asia and South America -- where some of the Earth’s most energy-deprived people currently reside.

Expanding basic necessities like running water and electricity in the developing world are seen by many in the green movement as a threat to the planet’s health that must be avoided.

Energy poverty equals a life of back-breaking poverty and premature death.

If we allow scientifically unfounded fears of global warming to influence policy makers to restrict future energy production and the creation of basic infrastructure in the developing world -- billions of people will continue to suffer.

Last week my committee heard testimony from Danish statistician Bjorn Lomborg, who was once a committed left-wing environmentalist until he realized that so much of what that movement preached was based on bad science. Lomborg wrote a book called “The Skeptical Environmentalist” and has organized some of the world’s top Nobel Laureates to form the 2004 “Copenhagen Consensus” which ranked the world’s most pressing problems. http://www.copenhagenconsensus.com/Default.aspx?ID=158

And guess what?

They placed global warming at the bottom of the list in terms of our planet’s priorities. The “Copenhagen Consensus” found that the most important priorities of our planet included: combating disease, stopping malaria, securing clean water, and building infrastructure to help lift the developing nations out of poverty.

I have made many trips to Africa, and once you see the devastating poverty that has a grip on that continent, you quickly realize that fears about global warming are severely misguided.

I firmly believe that when the history of our era is written, future generations will look back with puzzlement and wonder why we spent so much time and effort on global warming fears and pointless solutions like the Kyoto Protocol.

French President Jacques Chirac provided the key clue as to why so many in the international community still revere the Kyoto Protocol, who in 2000 said Kyoto represents “the first component of an authentic global governance.”

Furthermore, if your goal is to limit C02 emissions, the only effective way to go about it is the use of cleaner, more efficient technologies that will meet the energy demands of this century and beyond.

The Bush administration and my Environment and Public Works Committee have been engaged in these efforts as we work to expand nuclear power and promote the Asia-Pacific Partnership. This partnership stresses the sharing of new technology among member nations including three of the world’s top 10 emitters -- China, India and North Korea -- all of whom are exempt from Kyoto.



MEDIA COVERAGE OF CLIMATE CHANGE:

Many in the media, as I noted earlier, have taken it upon themselves to drop all pretense of balance on global warming and instead become committed advocates for the issue.

Here is a quote from Newsweek magazine:

“There are ominous signs that the Earth’s weather patterns have begun to change dramatically and that these changes may portend a drastic decline in food production– with serious political implications for just about every nation on Earth.”

A headline in the New York Times reads: “Climate Changes Endanger World’s Food Output.”

Here is a quote from Time Magazine:

“As they review the bizarre and unpredictable weather pattern of the past several years, a growing number of scientists are beginning to suspect that many seemingly contradictory meteorological fluctuations are actually part of a global climatic upheaval.”

All of this sounds very ominous. That is, until you realize that the three quotes I just read were from articles in 1975 editions of Newsweek Magazine and The New York Times, and Time Magazine in 1974. http://time-proxy.yaga.com/time/archive/pr...,944914,00.html They weren’t referring to global warming; they were warning of a coming ice age.

Let me repeat, all three of those quotes were published in the 1970’s and warned of a coming ice age.

In addition to global cooling fears, Time Magazine has also reported on global warming. Here is an example:

“[Those] who claim that winters were harder when they were boys are quite right… weathermen have no doubt that the world at least for the time being is growing warmer.”

Before you think that this is just another example of the media promoting Vice President Gore’s movie, you need to know that the quote I just read you from Time Magazine was not a recent quote; it was from January 2, 1939.

Yes, in 1939. Nine years before Vice President Gore was born and over three decades before Time Magazine began hyping a coming ice age and almost five decades before they returned to hyping global warming.

Time Magazine in 1951 pointed to receding permafrost in Russia as proof that the planet was warming.

In 1952, the New York Times noted that the “trump card” of global warming “has been the melting glaciers.”

BUT MEDIA COULD NOT DECIDE BETWEEN WARMING OR COOLING SCARES

There are many more examples of the media and scientists flip-flopping between warming and cooling scares.

Here is a quote form the New York Times reporting on fears of an approaching ice age.

“Geologists Think the World May be Frozen Up Again.”

That sentence appeared over 100 years ago in the February 24, 1895 edition of the New York Times. Let me repeat. 1895, not 1995.

A front page article in the October 7, 1912 New York Times, just a few months after the Titanic struck an iceberg and sank, declared that a prominent professor “Warns Us of an Encroaching Ice Age.”

The very same day in 1912, the Los Angeles Times ran an article warning that the “Human race will have to fight for its existence against cold.”

An August 10, 1923 Washington Post article declared: “Ice Age Coming Here.”

By the 1930’s, the media took a break from reporting on the coming ice age and instead switched gears to promoting global warming:

“America in Longest Warm Spell Since 1776; Temperature Line Records a 25-year Rise” stated an article in the New York Times on March 27, 1933.

The media of yesteryear was also not above injecting large amounts of fear and alarmism into their climate articles.

An August 9, 1923 front page article in the Chicago Tribune declared:

“Scientist Says Arctic Ice Will Wipe Out Canada.”

The article quoted a Yale University professor who predicted that large parts of Europe and Asia would be “wiped out” and Switzerland would be “entirely obliterated.”

A December 29, 1974 New York Times article on global cooling reported that climatologists believed “the facts of the present climate change are such that the most optimistic experts would assign near certainty to major crop failure in a decade.”

The article also warned that unless government officials reacted to the coming catastrophe, “mass deaths by starvation and probably in anarchy and violence” would result. In 1975, the New York Times reported that “A major cooling [was] widely considered to be inevitable.”

These past predictions of doom have a familiar ring, don’t they? They sound strikingly similar to our modern media promotion of former Vice president’s brand of climate alarmism.

After more than a century of alternating between global cooling and warming, one would think that this media history would serve a cautionary tale for today’s voices in the media and scientific community who are promoting yet another round of eco-doom.

Much of the 100-year media history on climate change that I have documented here today can be found in a publication titled “Fire and Ice” from the Business and Media Institute. http://www.businessandmedia.org/specialrep..._timeswarns.asp

MEDIA COVERAGE IN 2006

Which raises the question: Has this embarrassing 100-year documented legacy of coverage on what turned out to be trendy climate science theories made the media more skeptical of today’s sensational promoters of global warming?

You be the judge.

On February 19th of this year, CBS News’s “60 Minutes” produced a segment on the North Pole. The segment was a completely one-sided report, alleging rapid and unprecedented melting at the polar cap. http://www.cbsnews.com/stories/2006/02/16/...in1323169.shtml It even featured correspondent Scott Pelley claiming that the ice in Greenland was melting so fast, that he barely got off an ice-berg before it collapsed into the water.

“60 Minutes” failed to inform its viewers that a 2005 study by a scientist named Ola Johannessen and his colleagues showing that the interior of Greenland is gaining ice and mass and that according to scientists, the Arctic was warmer in the 1930’s than today.

On March 19th of this year “60 Minutes” profiled NASA scientist and alarmist James Hansen, who was once again making allegations of being censored by the Bush administration. http://www.cbsnews.com/stories/2006/03/17/...in1415985.shtml In this segment, objectivity and balance were again tossed aside in favor of a one-sided glowing profile of Hansen.

The “60 Minutes” segment made no mention of Hansen’s partisan ties to former Democrat Vice President Al Gore or Hansen’s receiving of a grant of a quarter of a million dollars from the left-wing Heinz Foundation run by Teresa Heinz Kerry. There was also no mention of Hansen’s subsequent endorsement of her husband John Kerry for President in 2004.

Many in the media dwell on any industry support given to so-called climate skeptics, but the same media completely fail to note Hansen’s huge grant from the left-wing Heinz Foundation.

The foundation’s money originated from the Heinz family ketchup fortune. So it appears that the media makes a distinction between oil money and ketchup money.

“60 Minutes” also did not inform viewers that Hansen appeared to concede in a 2003 issue of Natural Science that the use of “extreme scenarios" to dramatize climate change “may have been appropriate at one time” to drive the public's attention to the issue. http://naturalscience.com/ns/articles/01-16/ns_jeh6.html

Why would “60 Minutes” ignore the basic tenets of journalism, which call for objectivity and balance in sourcing, and do such one-sided segments?

The answer was provided by correspondent Scott Pelley. Pelley told the CBS News website that he justified excluding scientists skeptical of global warming alarmism from his segments because he considers skeptics to be the equivalent of “Holocaust deniers.” http://www.cbsnews.com/blogs/2006/03/22/pu...ry1431768.shtml

This year also saw a New York Times reporter write a children’s book entitled” The North Pole Was Here.” The author of the book, New York Times reporter Andrew Revkin, wrote that it may someday be “easier to sail to than stand on” the North Pole in summer. So here we have a very prominent environmental reporter for the New York Times who is promoting aspects of global warming alarmism in a book aimed at children.

TIME MAGAZINE HYPES ALARMISM

In April of this year, Time Magazine devoted an issue to global warming alarmism titled “Be Worried, Be Very Worried.” http://www.time.com/time/covers/0,16641,20060403,00.html This is the same Time Magazine which first warned of a coming ice age in 1920’s before switching to warning about global warming in the 1930’s before switching yet again to promoting the 1970’s coming ice age scare.

The April 3, 2006 global warming special report of Time Magazine was a prime example of the media’s shortcomings, as the magazine cited partisan left-wing environmental groups with a vested financial interest in hyping alarmism.

Headlines blared:

“More and More Land is Being Devastated by Drought”

“Earth at the Tipping Point”

“The Climate is Crashing,”

Time Magazine did not make the slightest attempt to balance its reporting with any views with scientists skeptical of this alleged climate apocalypse.

I don’t have journalism training, but I dare say calling a bunch of environmental groups with an obvious fund-raising agenda and asking them to make wild speculations on how bad global warming might become, is nothing more than advocacy for their left-wing causes. It is a violation of basic journalistic standards.

To his credit, New York Times reporter Revkin saw fit to criticize Time Magazine for its embarrassing coverage of climate science. http://orient.bowdoin.edu/orient/article.p...§ion=1&id=7

So in the end, Time’s cover story title of “Be Worried, Be Very Worried,” appears to have been apt. The American people should be worried --- very worried -- of such shoddy journalism.

AL GORE INCONVIENIENT TRUTH

In May, our nation was exposed to perhaps one of the slickest science propaganda films of all time: former Vice President Gore’s “An Inconvenient Truth.” In addition to having the backing of Paramount Pictures to market this film, Gore had the full backing of the media, and leading the cheerleading charge was none other than the Associated Press.

On June 27, the Associated Press ran an article by Seth Borenstein that boldly declared “Scientists give two thumbs up to Gore's movie.” The article quoted only five scientists praising Gore’s science, despite AP’s having contacted over 100 scientists. http://www.usatoday.com/weather/news/2006-...h-reviews_x.htm

The fact that over 80% of the scientists contacted by the AP had not even seen the movie or that many scientists have harshly criticized the science presented by Gore did not dissuade the news outlet one bit from its mission to promote Gore’s brand of climate alarmism. http://epw.senate.gov/pressitem.cfm?party=rep&id=257909

I am almost at a loss as to how to begin to address the series of errors, misleading science and unfounded speculation that appear in the former Vice President’s film

Here is what Richard Lindzen, a meteorologist from MIT has written about “An Inconvenient Truth.”

“A general characteristic of Mr. Gore's approach is to ignore the fact that the earth and its climate are dynamic; they are always changing even without any external forcing. To treat all change as something to fear is bad enough; to do so in order to exploit that fear is much worse.” http://www.opinionjournal.com/extra/?id=110008597

What follows is a very brief summary of the science that the former Vice President promotes in either a wrong or misleading way:

· He promoted the now debunked “hockey stick” temperature chart in an attempt to prove man’s overwhelming impact on the climate

· He attempted to minimize the significance of Medieval Warm period and the Little Ice Age

· He insisted on a link between increased hurricane activity and global warming that most scientists believe does not exist.

· He asserted that today’s Arctic is experiencing unprecedented warmth while ignoring that temperatures in the 1930’s were as warm or warmer

· He claimed the Antarctic was warming and losing ice but failed to note, that is only true of a small region and the vast bulk has been cooling and gaining ice.

· He hyped unfounded fears that Greenland’s ice is in danger of disappearing

· He erroneously claimed that ice cap on Mt. Kilimanjaro is disappearing due to global warming, even while the region cools and researchers blame the ice loss on local land-use practices

· He made assertions of massive future sea level rise that is way out side of any supposed scientific “consensus” and is not supported in even the most alarmist literature.

· He incorrectly implied that a Peruvian glacier's retreat is due to global warming, while ignoring the fact that the region has been cooling since the 1930s and other glaciers in South America are advancing

· He blamed global warming for water loss in Africa's Lake Chad, despite NASA scientists concluding that local population and grazing factors are the more likely culprits

· He inaccurately claimed polar bears are drowning in significant numbers due to melting ice when in fact they are thriving

· He completely failed to inform viewers that the 48 scientists who accused President Bush of distorting science were part of a political advocacy group set up to support Democrat Presidential candidate John Kerry in 2004

Now that was just a brief sampling of some of the errors presented in “An Inconvenient Truth.” Imagine how long the list would have been if I had actually seen the movie -- there would not be enough time to deliver this speech today.



TOM BROKAW

Following the promotion of “An Inconvenient Truth,” the press did not miss a beat in their role as advocates for global warming fears.

ABC News put forth its best effort to secure its standing as an advocate for climate alarmism when the network put out a call for people to submit their anecdotal global warming horror stories in June for use in a future news segment. http://abcnews.go.com/International/story?...TC-RSSFeeds0312

In July, the Discovery Channel presented a documentary on global warming narrated by former NBC anchor Tom Brokaw. The program presented only those views of scientists promoting the idea that humans are destroying the Earth’s climate. http://epw.senate.gov/fact.cfm?party=rep&id=258659

You don’t have to take my word for the program’s overwhelming bias; a Bloomberg News TV review noted “You'll find more dissent at a North Korean political rally than in this program” because of its lack of scientific objectivity.

Brokaw also presented climate alarmist James Hansen to viewers as unbiased, failing to note his quarter million dollar grant form the partisan Heinz Foundation or his endorsement of Democrat Presidential nominee John Kerry in 2004 and his role promoting former Vice President Gore’s Hollywood movie.

Brokaw, however, did find time to impugn the motives of scientists skeptical of climate alarmism when he featured paid environmental partisan Michael Oppenhimer of the group Environmental Defense accusing skeptics of being bought out by the fossil fuel interests.



The fact remains that political campaign funding by environmental groups to promote climate and environmental alarmism dwarfs spending by the fossil fuel industry by a three-to-one ratio. Environmental special interests, through their 527s, spent over $19 million compared to the $7 million that Oil and Gas spent through PACs in the 2004 election cycle.



I am reminded of a question the media often asks me about how much I have received in campaign contributions from the fossil fuel industry.

My unapologetic answer is ‘Not Enough,’ -- especially when you consider the millions partisan environmental groups pour into political campaigns.



ENGINEERED ‘CONSENSUS”

Continuing with our media analysis: On July 24, 2006 The Los Angeles Times featured an op-ed by Naomi Oreskes, a social scientist at the University of California San Diego and the author of a 2004 Science Magazine study. Oreskes insisted that a review of 928 scientific papers showed there was 100% consensus that global warming was not caused by natural climate variations. This study was also featured in former Vice President Gore’s “An Inconvenient Truth,”
http://epw.senate.gov/fact.cfm?party=rep&id=259323

However, the analysis in Science Magazine excluded nearly 11,000 studies or more than 90 percent of the papers dealing with global warming, according to a critique by British social scientist Benny Peiser.

Peiser also pointed out that less than two percent of the climate studies in the survey actually endorsed the so-called “consensus view” that human activity is driving global warming and some of the studies actually opposed that view.

But despite this manufactured “consensus,” the media continued to ignore any attempt to question the orthodoxy of climate alarmism.

As the dog days of August rolled in, the American people were once again hit with more hot hype regarding global warming, this time from The New York Times op-ed pages. A columnist penned an August 3rd column filled with so many inaccuracies it is a wonder the editor of the Times saw fit to publish it.

For instance, Bob Herbert’s column made dubious claims about polar bears, the snows of Kilimanjaro and he attempted to link this past summer’s heat wave in the U.S. to global warming – something even alarmist James Hansen does not support. http://epw.senate.gov/fact.cfm?party=rep&id=261382

POLAR BEARS LOOK TIRED?

Finally, a September 15, 2006 Reuters News article claimed that polar bears in the Arctic are threatened with extinction by global warming. The article by correspondent Alister Doyle, quoted a visitor to the Arctic who claims he saw two distressed polar bears. According to the Reuters article, the man noted that “one of [the polar bears] looked to be dead and the other one looked to be exhausted."

The article did not state the bears were actually dead or exhausted, rather that they “looked” that way.

Have we really arrived at the point where major news outlets in the U.S. are reduced to analyzing whether or not polar bears in the Arctic appear restful?

How does reporting like this get approved for publication by the editors at Reuters?

What happened to covering the hard science of this issue?

What was missing from this Reuters news article was the fact that according to biologists who study the animals, polar bears are doing quite well. Biologist Dr. Mitchell Taylor from the Arctic government of Nunavut, a territory of Canada, refuted these claims in May when he noted that

“Of the 13 populations of polar bears in Canada, 11 are stable or increasing in number. They are not going extinct, or even appear to be affected at present.” http://www.thestar.com/NASApp/cs/ContentSe...id=970599119419

Sadly, it appears that reporting anecdotes and hearsay as fact, has now replaced the basic tenets of journalism for many media outlets.

ALARMISM HAS LED TO SKEPTICISM

It is an inconvenient truth that so far, 2006 has been a year in which major segments of the media have given up on any quest for journalistic balance, fairness and objectivity when it comes to climate change. The global warming alarmists and their friends in the media have attempted to smear scientists who dare question the premise of man-made catastrophic global warming, and as a result some scientists have seen their reputations and research funding dry up.

The media has so relentlessly promoted global warming fears that a British group called the Institute for Public Policy Research – and this from a left leaning group – issued a report in 2006 accusing media outlets of engaging in what they termed “climate porn” in order to attract the public’s attention.

Bob Carter, a Paleoclimate geologist from James Cook University in Australia has described how the media promotes climate fear:



“Each such alarmist article is larded with words such as ‘if’, ‘might’, ‘could’, ‘probably’, ‘perhaps’, ‘expected’, ‘projected’ or ‘modeled’ - and many involve such deep dreaming, or ignorance of scientific facts and principles, that they are akin to nonsense,” professor Carter concluded in an op-ed in April of this year. http://www.telegraph.co.uk/opinion/main.jh...09/ixworld.html

Another example of this relentless hype is the reporting on the seemingly endless number of global warming impact studies which do not even address whether global warming is going to happen. They merely project the impact of potential temperature increases.

The media endlessly hypes studies that purportedly show that global warming could increase mosquito populations, malaria, West Nile Virus, heat waves and hurricanes, threaten the oceans, damage coral reefs, boost poison ivy growth, damage vineyards, and global food crops, to name just a few of the global warming linked calamities.

Oddly, according to the media reports, warmer temperatures almost never seem to have any positive effects on plant or animal life or food production.

Fortunately, the media’s addiction to so-called ‘climate porn’ has failed to seduce many Americans.

According to a July Pew Research Center Poll, the American public is split about evenly between those who say global warming is due to human activity versus those who believe it’s from natural factors or not happening at all. This is down from 85 percent just a year ago.

In addition, an August Los Angeles Times/Bloomberg poll found that most Americans do not attribute the cause of recent severe weather events to global warming, and the portion of Americans who believe global warming is naturally occurring is on the rise.

Yes -- it appears that alarmism has led to skepticism.

The American people know when their intelligence is being insulted. They know when they are being used and when they are being duped by the hysterical left.

The American people deserve better -- much better -- from our fourth estate. We have a right to expect accuracy and objectivity on climate change coverage. We have a right to expect balance in sourcing and fair analysis from reporters who cover the issue.



Above all, the media must roll back this mantra that there is scientific “consensus” of impending climatic doom as an excuse to ignore recent science. After all, there was a so-called scientific “consensus” that there were nine planets in our solar system until Pluto was recently demoted.

Breaking the cycles of media hysteria will not be easy since hysteria sells -- it’s very profitable. But I want to challenge the news media to reverse course and report on the objective science of climate change, to stop ignoring legitimate voices this scientific debate and to stop acting as a vehicle for unsubstantiated hype.
Snuffysmith
From Monsters and Critics.com

UK News
British report says climate change threatens world growth (Roundup)
By DPA
Oct 30, 2006, 19:00 GMT

http://news.monstersandcritics.com/uk/printer_1216209.php

London - The social and economic impact of global warming could shrink the world economy by 20 per cent in decades to come unless immediate and international action is taken now to face the challenge, a report published in Britain Monday warned.


The review, compiled for the British government by Nicholas Stern, former chief economist at the World Bank, urges that one per cent of global gross domestic product (GDP) must be spent immediately to tackle climate change.

'The evidence shows that ignoring climate change will eventually damage economic growth,' the report stated.

'We can pay one per cent more for what we buy now,' Stern explained the key message of his report. 'We can grow and be green.'

But delaying internationally-coordinated action by even a decade would lead the world into 'dangerous territory.'

It would risk economic and social upheaval on a scale comparable to the 'great wars and the economic depression of the first half of the 20th century,' Stern warned.

The review estimates that the dangers of unabated climate change would be equivalent to at least five per cent of GDP each year.

But taking further scientific evidence into account, the review estimates that the dangers could be equivalent to 20 per cent of GDP or more.

Costs to the economy are estimated at 3.68 trillion pounds (6.95 trillion dollars) by 2050, which is equivalent to 20 per cent of the world's wealth.

Without action, droughts, floods and rising sea levels would mean that up to 200 million people could be displaced and become refugees.

British Prime Minister Tony Blair, who attended publication of the report in London Monday, said the scientific evidence presented by Stern was 'overwhelming and in its consequences disastrous.'

'It is not in doubt that if the science is right, the consequences for our planet are literally disastrous,' said the prime minister.

'This is not set to happen in a science fiction future but in our lifetime,' Blair warned.

According to Stern, climate change represents the 'greatest and widest-ranging market failure ever seen.'

Among measures suggested in the report are carbon pricing through taxation 'so that people are faced with the full social costs of their actions.'

It also advocated a greater global use of technology policy in the fight against global warming and said that barriers to energy efficiency should be removed.

It was also announced Monday that Gordon Brown, Britain's Chancellor of the Exchequer, has recruited former US vice president Al Gore as an environment adviser.

Brown confirmed that the British government will table a Climate Change Bill next month that will commit it in law to the target of cutting Britain's CO2 emissions by 60 per cent by 2050.

Brown also announced that Britain is entering into an international partnership with countries including Brazil, Papua New Guinea and Costa Rica to provide resources for sustainable forestry to preserve the rainforests.

He said that Britain was also working with China and India on clean coal technology which would allow those countries to develop economically in a less environmentally damaging way.

Blair acknowledged during questions that Britain could not halt climate change on its own, but needed the support of countries such as the US, China and India.

But he said he was optimistic that attitudes were changing. 'I believe the international climate has shifted. I think people are now prepared to recognize that there needs to be co-operative international effort,' Blair said.
Snuffysmith
Times Online October 30, 2006

http://business.timesonline.co.uk/article/...2428781,00.html


Global warming report calls for immediate action
By Elsa McLaren



Hundreds of millions of people could suffer from hunger, water shortages and coastal flooding as the world gets warmer, according to a major report published today on the likely economic impacts of climate change.

Sir Nicholas Stern, the former chief economist at the World Bank, said at the launch of the 700-page report that it made good economic sense to tackle global warming now before irreversible damage is done to the planet and the costs mount.

The report - hailed by Tony Blair as the most important report on the future ever published by his Government - puts the cost of tackling global warming now at just 1 per cent of global GDP a year.

"That is manageable," Sir Nicholas said of that figure. "We can grow and be green."

But if nothing is done to reduce carbon emissions, the report predicted, the eventual cost would be a minimum of 5 per cent of economic activity and could rise as high as 20 per cent, costing the world as much as $3.68 trillion.

The report, commissioned by Gordon Brown, the Chancellor, comes in stark contrast to the Bush Administration's wait-and-see approach on global warming.

The Government hopes to use the Stern Review on the Economics of Climate Change to bring the United States, and India and China, on board an international agreement to succeed the Kyoto Protocol. Discussions on a post-Kyoto deal will resume at UN talks in Nairobi on November 6.

Mr Brown also confirmed today that Al Gore, the former US Vice-President who is now a leading campaigner against global warming, would act as an adviser to the Government on climate change.

Apart from its economic impacts, the Stern report also warns of the devastating effect that that uncontrolled climate change would have on the world’s population.

Failure to act could see 200 million people permanently displaced if the world’s temperature rises by 3C (5.4F) from pre-industrial levels.

Rising sea levels from melting glaciers and ice sheets could flood the homes of hundreds of millions of people each year with a warming of 3C-4C. And between 15 and 40 per cent of species could face extinction if the world’s temperatures rose by just 2C.

The report concludes that all countries will face global warming but those hardest hit will be poorer nations, many of which already struggle to produce enough crops to feed the population. The most serious and widespread consequences will be in Sub-Saharan Africa where millions more will die from malnutrition, diarrhoea, malaria and dengue fever, unless effective control measures are in place.

Sir Nicholas said: "The task is urgent. Delaying action even by a decade or two will take us into dangerous territory. We must not let this window of opportunity close.

"Government, businesses and individuals all need to work together to respond to the challenge. Strong, deliberate policy choices by governments are essential to motivate change."

Sir Nicholas admitted that the cost of reducing carbon emissions would ultimately fall to consumers who would pay more for carbon intensive goods or services, like cars or electricity. But he said that the extra costs would be "manageable".

The report highlighted the devastating effect that deforestation has on climate change, which it says contributes more to global emissions each year than transport industries. It also recommended that spending on research and development double to £10.5 billion and that more resources are given to poor countries to help them compete.

The Chancellor today set out proposals for a new European-wide target to reduce emissions by 30 per cent by 2020, and by at least 60 per cent by 2050. Mr Brown said he hoped it would eventually to be extended worldwide.

Speaking at the launch of the report, the Prime Minister said that failure to act now would be "disastrous" for the planet and the damage would be "irreversible".

He said: "There is nothing more serious, more urgent, more demanding of leadership - here, of course, but most importantly in the global community.

Mr Blair said that the report "demolished the last remaining argument for inaction in the face of climate change". He added: "Should we fail to rise to this challenge I don’t believe we will be able to explain ourselves to future generations that we have let down."

The climate report was widely welcomed by charities and businesses. Charlie Kronick of Greenpeace said it was "the final piece in the jigsaw" and that "everybody has to back action to slash emissions, regardless of party or ideology." The Confederation for British Industry said that the review was a "powerful argument for collective action by the nations of the world".
Snuffysmith
Stern report: the key points
http://politics.guardian.co.uk/green/story...1935209,00.html

Hilary Osborne
Monday October 30, 2006
Guardian Unlimited


The dangers
· All countries will be affected by climate change, but the poorest countries will suffer earliest and most.

· Average temperatures could rise by 5C from pre-industrial levels if climate change goes unchecked.

· Warming of 3 or 4C will result in many millions more people being flooded. By the middle of the century 200 million may be permanently displaced due to rising sea levels, heavier floods and drought.

· Warming of 4C or more is likely to seriously affect global food production.

· Warming of 2C could leave 15-40% species facing extinction.
· Before the industrial revolution level of greenhouse gases in the atmosphere was 280 parts per million (ppm) CO2 equivalent (CO2e); the current level is 430ppm CO2e. The level should be limited to 450-550ppm CO2.

· Anything higher would substantially increase risks of very harmful impacts. Anything lower would impose very high adjustment costs in the near term and might not even be feasible.

· Deforestation is responsible for more emissions than the transport sector.

· Climate change is the greatest and widest-ranging market failure ever seen.

Recommended actions

· Three elements of policy are required for an effective response: carbon pricing, technology policy and energy efficiency.

· Carbon pricing, through taxation, emissions trading or regulation, will show people the full social costs of their actions. The aim should be a global carbon price across countries and sectors.

· Emissions trading schemes, like that operating across the EU, should be expanded and linked.

· Technology policy should drive the large-scale development and use of a range of low-carbon and high-efficiency products.

· Globally, support for energy research and development should at least double; support for the deployment of low-carbon technologies should be increased my up to five times.

· International product standards could be introduced.

· Large-scale international pilot programmes to explore the best ways to curb deforestation should be started very quickly.

· Climate change should be fully integrated into development policy, and rich countries should honour pledges to increase support through overseas development assistance.

· International funding should support improved regional information on climate change impacts.

· International funding should go into researching new crop varieties that will be more resilient to drought and flood.

Economic impacts

· The benefits of strong, early action considerably outweigh the costs.

· Unabated climate change could cost the world at least 5% of GDP each year; if more dramatic predictions come to pass, the cost could be more than 20% of GDP.

· The cost of reducing emissions could be limited to around 1% of global GDP; people could be charged more for carbon-intensive goods.

· Each tonne of CO2 we emit causes damages worth at least $85, but emissions can be cut at a cost of less than $25 a tonne.

· Shifting the world onto a low-carbon path could eventually benefit the economy by $2.5 trillion a year.

· By 2050, markets for low-carbon technologies could be worth at least $500bn.

· What we do now can have only a limited effect on the climate over the next 40 or 50 years, but what we do in the next 10-20 years can have a profound effect on the climate in the second half of this century.
Snuffysmith
http://www.hm-treasury.gov.uk/newsroom_and...ss_stern_06.cfm

Publication of the Stern Review on the Economics of Climate change
The most comprehensive review ever carried out on the economics of climate change was published today.

The Review, which reports to the Prime Minister and Chancellor, was commissioned by the Chancellor in July last year. It has been carried out by Sir Nicholas Stern, Head of the Government Economic Service and former World Bank Chief Economist.

Sir Nicholas said today:

“The conclusion of the Review is essentially optimistic. There is still time to avoid the worst impacts of climate change, if we act now and act internationally. Governments, businesses and individuals all need to work together to respond to the challenge. Strong, deliberate policy choices by governments are essential to motivate change.

But the task is urgent. Delaying action, even by a decade or two, will take us into dangerous territory. We must not let this window of opportunity close.”

The first half of the Review focuses on the impacts and risks arising from uncontrolled climate change, and on the costs and opportunities associated with action to tackle it. A sound understanding of the economics of risk is critical here. The Review emphasises that economic models over timescales of centuries do not offer precise forecasts – but they are an important way to illustrate the scale of effects we might see.

The Review finds that all countries will be affected by climate change, but it is the poorest countries that will suffer earliest and most. Unabated climate change risks raising average temperatures by over 5°C from pre-industrial levels. Such changes would transform the physical geography of our planet, as well as the human geography – how and where we live our lives.

Adding up the costs of a narrow range of the effects, based on the assessment of the science carried out by the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change in 2001, the Review calculates that the dangers of unabated climate change would be equivalent to at least 5% of GDP each year.

The Review goes on to consider more recent scientific evidence (for example, of the risks that greenhouse gases will be released naturally as the permafrost melts), the economic effects on human life and the environment, and approaches to modelling that ensure the impacts that affect poor people are weighted appropriately. Taking these together, the Review estimates that the dangers could be equivalent to 20% of GDP or more.

In contrast, the costs of action to reduce greenhouse gas emissions to avoid the worst impacts of climate change can be limited to around 1% of global GDP each year. People would pay a little more for carbon-intensive goods, but our economies could continue to grow strongly.

If we take no action to control emissions, each tonne of CO2 that we emit now is causing damage worth at least $85 – but these costs are not included when investors and consumers make decisions about how to spend their money.

Emerging schemes that allow people to trade reductions in CO2 have demonstrated that there are many opportunities to cut emissions for less than $25 a tonne. In other words, reducing emissions will make us better off. According to one measure, the benefits over time of actions to shift the world onto a low-carbon path could be in the order of $2.5 trillion each year.

The shift to a low-carbon economy will also bring huge opportunities. Markets for low-carbon technologies will be worth at least $500bn, and perhaps much more, by 2050 if the world acts on the scale required.

Tackling climate change is the pro-growth strategy; ignoring it will ultimately undermine economic growth.

The Review looks at what this analysis means for the level of ambition of global action. It concludes that the levels of greenhouse gases in the atmosphere should be limited to somewhere within the range 450 - 550ppm CO2e (CO2 equivalent).

Anything higher would substantially increase risks of very harmful impacts but would only reduce the expected costs of mitigation by comparatively little. Anything lower would impose very high adjustment costs in the near term and might not even be feasible, not least because of past delays in taking strong action.

The second half of the Review examines the national and international policy challenges of moving to a low-carbon global economy.

Climate change is the greatest market failure the world has seen. Three elements of policy are required for an effective response.

The first is carbon pricing, through taxation, emissions trading or regulation, so that people are faced with the full social costs of their actions. The aim should be to build a common global carbon price across countries and sectors.

The second is technology policy, to drive the development and deployment at scale of a range of low-carbon and high-efficiency products. And the third is action to remove barriers to energy efficiency, and to inform, educate and persuade individuals about what they can do to respond to climate change. Fostering a shared understanding of the nature of climate change, and its consequences, is critical in shaping behaviour, as well as in underpinning both national and international action.

Effective action requires a global policy response, guided by a common international understanding of the long-term goals for climate policy and strong frameworks for co-operation. Key elements of future international frameworks should include:

Emissions trading:

Expanding and linking the growing number of emissions trading schemes around the world is a powerful way to promote cost-effective reductions in emissions and to bring forward action in developing countries.

Strong targets in rich countries could drive flows amounting to tens of billions of dollars each year to support the transition to low-carbon development paths.

Technology co-operation:

Informal co-ordination as well as formal agreements can boost the effectiveness of investments in innovation around the world.

Globally, support for energy research and development should at least double, and support for the deployment of low-carbon technologies should increase up to five-fold.

International co-operation on product standards is a powerful way to boost energy efficiency.

Action to reduce deforestation:

The loss of natural forests around the world contributes more to global emissions each year than the transport sector. Curbing deforestation is a highly cost-effective way to reduce emissions; large-scale international pilot programmes to explore the best ways to do this should get underway very quickly.
Adaptation:

The poorest countries are most vulnerable to climate change. It is essential that climate change be fully integrated into development policy, and that rich countries honour their pledges to increase support through overseas development assistance.

International funding should also support improved regional information on climate change impacts, and research into new crop varieties that will be more resilient to drought and flood.
Notes for editors

Pre-industrial levels of greenhouse gases in the atmosphere were 280ppm CO2 equivalent (CO2e). The current concentration is 430ppm CO2e.

The Review examined evidence from many different economic models of the impacts of climate change and of the costs and benefits of mitigation. One model, PAGE2002, was used to illustrate the results from considering new scientific evidence and a wider range of impacts. This model was chosen because it specifically allows for a rigorous statistical treatment of risk and uncertainty.

The Stern Review can be downloaded at www.sternreview.org.uk. Background on the Review, including the terms of reference and responses to the Call for Evidence, can also be found here.

Sir Nicholas Stern is Head of the Government Economic Service, and Adviser to the UK Government on the Economics of Climate Change and Development. He is a former Chief Economist of the World Bank.
For media enquiries, please call 020 7270 6280, or email sterninvites@hm-treasury.gsi.gov.uk.
Snuffysmith
Faces In The News
Blair: Climate Change Will Cripple World GDP
Parmy Olson, 10.30.06, 12:29 PM ET
http://www.forbes.com/2006/10/30/blair-cli...an01_print.html
London -
With just a few months left in office, Prime Minister Tony Blair of Britain is, for better or worse, going to leave us all with some food for thought.

On Monday one of the British government's top economic advisers published a 700-page report attempting to quantify the economic cost of climate change. It was, Blair said, "the most important report on the future which I have received since becoming prime minister."

In a word, the report by former World Bank Chief Economist Sir Nicholas Stern, suggests that global warming could shrink the world's economy by up to 20%, costing it more than either of the 20th century's world wars or the Depression.

But taking action now would cost a mere 1% of global gross domestic product. "We can't wait the five years it took to negotiate Kyoto - we simply don't have the time," Blair said.

Commissioned in July 2005 by Chancellor of the Exchequer and Blair's heir-in-waiting Gordon Brown, the Stern Review is said to be the most comprehensive study ever carried out on the economics of climate change.

The first half focuses on the impacts and risks arising from global warming and the costs of tackling it. Based on the assessment carried out by the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change in 2001, Stern calculated that the dangers of climate change would be equivalent to at least 5% of world GDP each year for the next two centuries and the cost could run to 20%.

The second half of the review looks at the national and international policies including carbon pricing, taxation, and the development of high-efficiency products.

Tony Blair said the report would form the context for discussion on the subject at next year's summit meeting among the Group of 8 industrial countries in Germany.

He is also passing on the implementation of the review's recommendations -- which include the establishment of a global market to trade carbon emissions permits -- to Brown.

The chancellor will apparently go on to propose expanding the EU's carbon trading market to include California, Australia and Japan.
Snuffysmith
ANALYSIS-Climate change appeal fails to silence sceptics
30 Oct 2006 18:10:18 GMT
Source: Reuters

http://www.alertnet.org/thenews/newsdesk/L3059564.htm

By Gerard Wynn

LONDON, Oct 30 (Reuters) - The high-profile launch of the biggest-ever study of the costs of climate change failed to dispel doubts over whether the world will heed its stark call for action to tackle global warming.

British Prime Minister Tony Blair welcomed the U.K.-backed report as "the most important report on the future published by this government", and his finance minister Gordon Brown said it meant environmental policy was now economic policy.

The report's author, former World Bank chief economist Nicholas Stern, argued that urgent action on climate change now would save some $2.5 trillion compared with doing nothing, and would help avert possible economic and planetary catastrophe.

The weighty report provides ammunition for Blair's drive to persuade the United States, as well as fast-growing developing nations China and India, to sign up to a new global framework to curb greenhouse gas emissions.

The report is also meant to galvanise industry to invest in "green" energy and make people see the sense of taxes to limit the use of emissions-producing fossil fuels.

"It's about creating carbon markets, creating a price incentive to cut back on carbon, about promoting research and development, about encouraging energy efficiency," Stern said.

"Above all it's international, it's getting countries to move together," he told Reuters after delivering the 580-page report to Blair and Brown.

One thing on which all analysts, policy makers, investors and lobbyists seemed to agree was this need for global action.

British Foreign Secretary Margaret Beckett will brief ambassadors in London on Stern's report while Stern himself will visit the United States and other countries to talk to academics, government officials and environmental groups.

"Unless you have an international framework which has not just Europe, but America and China and India in it then there will be a limit to the degree to which your company is going to get fully behind this," said Blair.

The world does not have a good record on curbing greenhouse gases. The United States, the world's biggest emitter, in 2001 pulled out of the Kyoto Protocol, the only world-wide policy on climate change.

"The U.S. government has produced an abundance of economic analysis on the issue of climate change," Kristen Hellmer, spokeswoman for the White House Council on Environmental Quality, said. "The Stern report is another contribution to that effort."

"The fact is there's a very, very deep body of scepticism and resistance...not only in the United States although that's perhaps the focal point," said Michael Grubb, chief economist at Britain's Carbon Trust, a group which spearheads Britain's drive to a low-carbon economy.

CREDIBILITY

While Washington's full support for Stern's findings was always uncertain, some of its implications will sit uneasily even with the European Union.

It calls for action to keep greenhouse gases at a level in the atmosphere -- up to 550 parts per million -- which the EU has in the past rejected as too high, saying it risks dangerous climate change which it defines as an average 2 degrees Celsius global warming.

"(550 ppm) offers at most a one in six chance of respecting the 2 degrees target," the European Commission said last year.

"Limiting the temperature rise to 2 degrees would very probably require greenhouse gas concentrations to be stabilised at much lower levels," it said.

The report by Stern, the British government's chief economist, earned a sceptical response from some fellow economists.

At the core of the report was the message that urgent action now would cost up to 20 times less than doing nothing.

"Telling people that this (action on global warming) will cost quite a trivial sum is giving the wrong kind of direction," said Dieter Helm, an economics fellow at New College, Oxford. "I think 1 percent of GDP is probably quite low."

Others were unimpressed by Stern's cost estimate of doing nothing.

"It assumes that society will never get used to higher temperatures, changed rainfall patterns, or higher sea levels. This is a rather dim view of human ingenuity," said Richard Tol, senior research officer at Ireland's Economic and Social Research Institute.

"The Stern Review can therefore be dismissed as alarmist and incompetent."

(Additional reporting by Deborah Zabarenko in Washington)
Snuffysmith
Global Warming's Real Inconvenient Truth

By Robert J. Samuelson
Wednesday, July 5, 2006; Page A13

http://www.washingtonpost.com/wp-dyn/conte...errer=delicious

"Global warming may or may not be the great environmental crisis of the next century, but -- regardless of whether it is or isn't -- we won't do much about it. We will (I am sure) argue ferociously over it and may even, as a nation, make some fairly solemn-sounding commitments to avoid it. But the more dramatic and meaningful these commitments seem, the less likely they are to be observed. Little will be done. . . . Global warming promises to become a gushing source of national hypocrisy.''

Well, so it has. In three decades of columns, I've never quoted myself at length, but here it's necessary. Al Gore calls global warming an "inconvenient truth," as if merely recognizing it could put us on a path to a solution. That's an illusion. The real truth is that we don't know enough to relieve global warming, and -- barring major technological breakthroughs -- we can't do much about it. This was obvious nine years ago; it's still obvious. Let me explain.

From 2003 to 2050, the world's population is projected to grow from 6.4 billion people to 9.1 billion, a 42 percent increase. If energy use per person and technology remain the same, total energy use and greenhouse gas emissions (mainly, carbon dioxide) will be 42 percent higher in 2050. But that's too low, because societies that grow richer use more energy. Unless we condemn the world's poor to their present poverty -- and freeze everyone else's living standards -- we need economic growth. With modest growth, energy use and greenhouse emissions more than double by 2050.

Just keeping annual greenhouse gas emissions constant means that the world must somehow offset these huge increases. There are two ways: Improve energy efficiency, or shift to energy sources with lower (or no) greenhouse emissions. Intuitively, you sense this is tough. China, for example, builds about one coal-fired power plant a week. Now a new report from the International Energy Agency in Paris shows all the difficulties (the population, economic growth and energy projections cited above come from the report).

The IEA report assumes that existing technologies are rapidly improved and deployed. Vehicle fuel efficiency increases by 40 percent. In electricity generation, the share for coal (the fuel with the most greenhouse gases) shrinks from about 40 percent to about 25 percent -- and much carbon dioxide is captured before going into the atmosphere. Little is captured today. Nuclear energy increases. So do "renewables" (wind, solar, biomass, geothermal); their share of global electricity output rises from 2 percent now to about 15 percent.

Some of these changes seem heroic. They would require tough government regulation, continued technological gains and public acceptance of higher fuel prices. Never mind. Having postulated a crash energy diet, the IEA simulates five scenarios with differing rates of technological change. In each, greenhouse emissions in 2050 are higher than today. The increases vary from 6 percent to 27 percent.

Since 1800 there's been modest global warming. I'm unqualified to judge between those scientists (the majority) who blame man-made greenhouse gases and those (a small minority) who finger natural variations in the global weather system. But if the majority are correct, the IEA report indicates we're now powerless. We can't end annual greenhouse emissions, and once in the atmosphere, the gases seem to linger for decades. So concentration levels rise. They're the villains; they presumably trap the world's heat. They're already about 36 percent higher than in 1800. Even with its program, the IEA says another 45 percent rise may be unavoidable. How much warming this might create is uncertain; so are the consequences.

I draw two conclusions -- one political, one practical.

No government will adopt the draconian restrictions on economic growth and personal freedom (limits on electricity usage, driving and travel) that might curb global warming. Still, politicians want to show they're "doing something." The result is grandstanding. Consider the Kyoto Protocol. It allowed countries that joined to castigate those that didn't. But it hasn't reduced carbon dioxide emissions (up about 25 percent since 1990), and many signatories didn't adopt tough enough policies to hit their 2008-2012 targets. By some estimates, Europe may overshoot by 15 percent and Japan by 25 percent.

Ambitious U.S. politicians also practice this self-serving hypocrisy. Gov. Arnold Schwarzenegger has a global warming program. Gore counts 221 cities that have "ratified" Kyoto. Some pledge to curb their greenhouse emissions. None of these programs will reduce global warming. They're public relations exercises and -- if they impose costs -- are undesirable. (Note: on national security grounds, I favor taxing oil, but the global warming effect would be trivial.) The practical conclusion is that if global warming is a potential calamity, the only salvation is new technology. I once received an e-mail from an engineer. Thorium, he said. I had never heard of thorium. It is, he argued, a nuclear fuel that is more plentiful and safer than uranium without waste disposal problems. It's an exit from the global warming trap. After reading many articles, I gave up trying to decide whether he is correct. But his larger point is correct: Only an aggressive research and development program might find ways of breaking our dependence on fossil fuels or dealing with it. Perhaps some system could purge the atmosphere of surplus greenhouse gases?

The trouble with the global warming debate is that it has become a moral crusade when it's really an engineering problem. The inconvenient truth is that if we don't solve the engineering problem, we're helpless.
Snuffysmith
October 31, 2006
Op-Ed Columnist
Scandal Below the Surface
By NICHOLAS D. KRISTOF

NEW YORK TIMES

The crucial issue this year is Iraq, and the most important issue this decade may be the risk that nuclear proliferation results in the incineration of Wall Street by terrorists. Both topics are spurring useful debate this campaign season.

But one of the more important issues this century is generating no serious discussion on the campaign trail. And, in place of a drumroll, let’s look at the chemistry experiment in which we’re all taking part.

If you think of the earth’s surface as a great beaker, then it’s filled mostly with ocean water. It is slightly alkaline, and that’s what creates a hospitable home for fish, coral reefs and plankton — and indirectly, higher up the food chain, for us.

But scientists have discovered that the carbon dioxide we’re spewing into the air doesn’t just heat up the atmosphere and lead to rising seas. Much of that carbon is absorbed by the oceans, and there it produces carbonic acid — the same stuff found in soda pop.

That makes oceans a bit more acidic, impairing the ability of certain shellfish to produce shells, which, like coral reefs, are made of calcium carbonate. A recent article in Scientific American explained the indignity of being a dissolving mollusk in an acidic ocean: “Drop a piece of chalk (calcium carbonate) into a glass of vinegar (a mild acid) if you need a demonstration of the general worry: the chalk will begin dissolving immediately.”

The more acidic waters may spell the end, at least in higher latitudes, of some of the tiniest variations of shellfish — certain plankton and tiny snails called pteropods. This would disrupt the food chain, possibly killing off many whales and fish, and rippling up all the way to humans.

We stand, so to speak, on the shoulders of plankton.

“There have been a couple of very big events in geological history where the carbon cycle changed dramatically,” said Scott Doney, senior scientist at the Woods Hole Oceanographic Institution in Massachusetts. One was an abrupt warming that took place 55 million years ago in conjunction with acidification of the oceans and mass extinctions. Most scientists don’t believe we’re headed toward a man-made variant on that episode — not yet, at any rate. But many worry that we’re hurtling into unknown dangers.

“Whether in 20 years or 100 years, I think marine ecosystems are going to be dramatically different by the end of this century, and that’ll lead to extinction events,” Mr. Doney added.

“This is the only habitable planet we have,” he said. “The damage we do is going to be felt by all the generations to come.”

So that should be one of the great political issues for this century — the vandalism we’re committing to our planet because of our refusal to curb greenhouse gases. Yet the subject is barely debated in this campaign.

Changes in ocean chemistry are only one among many damaging consequences of carbon emissions. Evidence is also growing about the more familiar dangers: melting glaciers, changing rainfall patterns, rising seas and more powerful hurricanes.

Last year, the World Health Organization released a study indicating that climate change results in an extra 150,000 deaths and five million sicknesses each year, by causing the spread of malaria, diarrhea, malnutrition and other ailments.

A report prepared for the British government and published yesterday, the Stern Review on the Economics of Climate Change, warned that inaction “could create risks of major disruption to economic and social activity, on a scale similar to those associated with the great wars and the economic depression of the first half of the 20th century.”

If emissions are not curbed, climate change will cut 5 percent to 20 percent of global G.D.P. each year, declared the mammoth report. “In contrast,” it said, “the costs of action — reducing greenhouse gas emissions to avoid the worst impacts of climate change — can be limited to around 1 percent of global G.D.P. each year.” Some analysts put the costs of action higher, but most agree that it makes sense to invest far more in alternative energy sources, both to wean ourselves of oil and to reduce the strain on our planet.

We know what is needed: a carbon tax or cap-and-trade system, a post-Kyoto accord on emissions cutbacks, and major research on alternative energy sources. But as The Times’s Andrew Revkin noted yesterday, spending on energy research and development has fallen by more than half, after inflation, since 1979.

Melting glaciers and corroding pteropods aren’t as sensational as a Congressional page scandal, or as urgent as the Iraq war. But they are just as scandalous. We have no responsibility greater than as stewards of our planet, and we’re blowing it.
Snuffysmith
October 30, 2006
British Government Report Calls for Broad Effort on Climate Issues
By ANDREW C. REVKIN

NEW YORK TIMES

A report commissioned by the British government and scheduled for release Monday calls for substantial international cooperation to combat global warming and doubling public spending on research into low-carbon technologies.

The main findings of the 16-month study, led by Sir Nicholas Stern, the chief of Britain’s economic service, were described over the weekend in several British news reports. The Reuters news agency quoted the report’s 27-page summary as saying, “The evidence gathered by the review leads to a simple conclusion: the benefits of strong, early action considerably outweigh the costs.”

The report, prepared for Tony Blair, the prime minister, and Gordon Brown, the finance minister, has been heavily promoted by Britain and environmental groups as one of the most authoritative reviews of climate costs, although some economists and energy experts at anti-regulatory research groups saw it as understating the cost of an accelerated transition away from the fossil fuels that provide nearly 90 percent of the world’s energy today.

The report, called the Stern Review on the Economics of Climate Change, will be published online at www.sternreview.org.uk.

If emissions are not cut and temperatures rise as many scientists project, the Reuters agency quoted the report as saying that, among various impacts, melting glaciers would threaten one sixth of the world population by raising sea levels and drying up river sources.

The Observer, a British newspaper, reported that the study cited a figure of £3.68 trillion (the equivalent of $6.98 trillion) as the cost to society of failing to start blunting global warming within a decade.

“Our actions over the coming few decades could create risks of major disruption to economic and social activity, later in this century and in the next, on a scale similar to those associated with the great wars and the economic depression of the first half of the 20th century,” the report said, according to Reuters.

The study estimated that the cost of cutting emissions in 2050 to 60 percent to 80 percent below 1990 levels would be about 1 percent of total global economic activity by then, Reuters and The Observer said. If emissions cannot be cut to those levels, the cost from climatic impacts could be 5 to 20 times higher, The Observer cited the study as saying.

The study, according to the news reports, said that progress would best be accomplished by doubling global investment in research on climate-friendly energy technologies and placing a rising cost on further emissions of the greenhouse gases, led by carbon dioxide, to propel the shift toward non-polluting options.

The news reports on the study are consistent with presentations by Sir Nicholas, including a speech last January at Oxford University.

Other recent estimates of the eventual annual costs of stabilizing concentrations of greenhouse gases over the 21st century have ranged from 1 percent of global gross domestic product to 16 percent by around 2100, not counting any savings from averted damage.

By comparison, the world is currently spending just over $1 trillion a year, or about 2.5 percent of global gross global domestic product, on defense, according to a yearly survey by the Stockholm International Peace Research Institute. (Military spending in the United States is about 3.7 percent of gross domestic product.)

“This confirms what we’ve seen for a long time,” said Kert Davies, a climate-policy coordinator for Greenpeace. “The longer we take to act, the greater the costs will be.”

Jerry Taylor, an expert on energy and climate policy at the Cato Institute, a libertarian research group in Washington, said the wide range of cost estimates for cutting emissions “basically tells you we’re guessing.”

Overall, he said, he put more faith in academic analyses than one produced at a government’s request, particularly at a time when the public appears eager to see signs of action on the issue.

The release of the 700-page report, which was 16 months in the making, will come one week before the start of the latest round of talks on the Kyoto Protocol, the first international pact requiring cuts in heat-trapping emissions.

The United States has not ratified the Kyoto pact but is a party to the voluntary treaty that preceded it, which requires all signatories to seek to avoid a dangerous buildup of greenhouse gases.

The Kyoto Protocol, an addendum to the original treaty, requires three dozen participating industrialized countries to cut their combined emissions 5 percent below 1990 levels between 2008 and 2012.

At the moment, many of the three dozen industrialized countries bound by the pact are not on track to meet targets. And there are few indications of a shift toward accepting binding restrictions in the United States, the world’s biggest emitter of greenhouse gases, or China and India, which are projected to be the dominant source of emissions in a couple of decades.
Snuffysmith
October 30, 2006
The Energy Challenge
Budgets Falling in Race to Fight Global Warming
By ANDREW C. REVKIN
NEW YORK TIMES

http://www.nytimes.com/2006/10/30/business...agewanted=print

DENVER — Cheers fit for a revival meeting swept a hotel ballroom as 1,800 entrepreneurs and experts watched a PowerPoint presentation of the most promising technologies for limiting global warming: solar power, wind, ethanol and other farmed fuels, energy-efficient buildings and fuel-sipping cars.

“Houston,” Charles F. Kutscher, chairman of the Solar 2006 conference, concluded in a twist on the line from Apollo 13, “we have a solution.”

Hold the applause. For all the enthusiasm about alternatives to coal and oil, the challenge of limiting emissions of carbon dioxide, which traps heat, will be immense in a world likely to add 2.5 billion people by midcentury, a host of other experts say. Moreover, most of those people will live in countries like China and India, which are just beginning to enjoy an electrified, air-conditioned mobile society.

The challenge is all the more daunting because research into energy technologies by both government and industry has not been rising, but rather falling.

In the United States, annual federal spending for all energy research and development — not just the research aimed at climate-friendly technologies — is less than half what it was a quarter-century ago. It has sunk to $3 billion a year in the current budget from an inflation-adjusted peak of $7.7 billion in 1979, according to several different studies.

Britain, for one, has sounded a loud alarm about the need for prompt action on the climate issue, including more research. [A report commissioned by the British government and scheduled to be released today calls for spending to be doubled worldwide on research into low-carbon technologies; without it, the report says, coastal flooding and a shortage of drinking water could turn 200 million people into refugees.]

President Bush has sought an increase to $4.2 billion for 2007, but that would still be a small fraction of what most climate and energy experts say would be needed.

Federal spending on medical research, by contrast, has nearly quadrupled, to $28 billion annually, since 1979. Military research has increased 260 percent, and at more than $75 billion a year is 20 times the amount spent on energy research.

Internationally, government energy research trends are little different from those in the United States. Japan is the only economic power that increased research spending in recent decades, with growth focused on efficiency and solar technology, according to the International Energy Agency.

In the private sector, studies show that energy companies have a long tradition of eschewing long-term technology quests because of the lack of short-term payoffs.

Still, more than four dozen scientists, economists, engineers and entrepreneurs interviewed by The New York Times said that unless the search for abundant non-polluting energy sources and systems became far more aggressive, the world would probably face dangerous warming and international strife as nations with growing energy demands compete for increasingly inadequate resources.

Most of these experts also say existing energy alternatives and improvements in energy efficiency are simply not enough.

“We cannot come close to stabilizing temperatures” unless humans, by the end of the century, stop adding more CO2 to the atmosphere than it can absorb, said W. David Montgomery of Charles River Associates, a consulting group, “and that will be an economic impossibility without a major R.& D. investment.”

A sustained push is needed not just to refine, test and deploy known low-carbon technologies, but also to find “energy technologies that don’t have a name yet,” said James A. Edmonds, a chief scientist at the Joint Global Change Research Institute of the University of Maryland and the Energy Department.

At the same time, many energy experts and economists agree on another daunting point: To make any resulting “alternative” energy options the new norm will require attaching a significant cost to the carbon emissions from coal, oil and gas.

“A price incentive stirs people to look at a thousand different things,’ ” said Henry D. Jacoby, a climate and energy expert at the Massachusetts Institute of Technology.

For now, a carbon cap or tax is opposed by President Bush, most American lawmakers and many industries. And there are scant signs of consensus on a long-term successor to the Kyoto Protocol, the first treaty obligating participating industrial countries to cut warming emissions. (The United States has not ratified the pact.)

The next round of talks on Kyoto and an underlying voluntary treaty will take place next month in Nairobi, Kenya.

Environmental campaigners, focused on promptly establishing binding limits on emissions of heat-trapping gases, have tended to play down the need for big investments seeking energy breakthroughs. At the end of “An Inconvenient Truth,” former Vice President Al Gore’s documentary film on climate change, he concluded: “We already know everything we need to know to effectively address this problem.”

While applauding Mr. Gore’s enthusiasm, many energy experts said this stance was counterproductive because there was no way, given global growth in energy demand, that existing technology could avert a doubling or more of atmospheric concentrations of carbon dioxide in this century.

Mr. Gore has since adjusted his stance, saying existing technology is sufficient to start on the path to a stable climate.

Other researchers say the chances of success are so low, unless something breaks the societal impasse, that any technology quest should also include work on increasing the resilience to climate extremes — through actions like developing more drought-tolerant crops — as well as last-ditch climate fixes, like testing ways to block some incoming sunlight to counter warming.

Without big reductions in emissions, the midrange projections of most scenarios envision a rise of 4 degrees or so in this century, four times the warming in the last 100 years. That could, among other effects, produce a disruptive mix of intensified flooding and withering droughts in the world’s prime agricultural regions.

Sir Nicholas Stern, the chief of Britain’s economic service and author of the new government report on climate options, has summarized the cumulative nature of the threat succinctly: “The sting is in the tail.”

The Carbon Dioxide Problem

Many factors intersect to make the prompt addressing of global warming very difficult, experts say.

A central hurdle is that carbon dioxide accumulates in the atmosphere like unpaid credit card debt as long as emissions exceed the rate at which the gas is naturally removed from the atmosphere by the oceans and plants. But the technologies producing the emissions evolve slowly.

A typical new coal-fired power plant, one of the largest sources of emissions, is expected to operate for many decades. About one large coal-burning plant is being commissioned a week, mostly in China.

“We’ve got a $12 trillion capital investment in the world energy economy and a turnover time of 30 to 40 years,” said John P. Holdren, a physicist and climate expert at Harvard University and president of the American Association for the Advancement of Science. “If you want it to look different in 30 or 40 years, you’d better start now.”

Many experts say this means the only way to affordably speed the transition to low-emissions energy is with advances in technologies at all stages of maturity.

Examples include:

¶ Substantially improving the efficiency and cost of solar panels;

¶ Conducting full-scale tests of systems for capturing carbon dioxide from power plants and pumping it underground;

¶ Seeking efficient ways to generate fuels from crops;

¶ Finding new ways to store vast amounts of energy harvested intermittently from the wind and sun.

Carbon dioxide levels will stabilize only if each generation persists in developing and deploying alternatives to unfettered fossil-fuel emissions, said Robert H. Socolow, a physicist and co-director of a Princeton “carbon mitigation initiative” created with $20 million from BP and Ford Motor.

The most immediate gains could come simply by increasing energy efficiency. If efficiency gains in transportation, buildings, power transmission and other areas were doubled from the longstanding rate of 1 percent per year to 2 percent, Dr. Holdren wrote in the M.I.T. journal Innovations earlier this year, that could hold the amount of new nonpolluting energy required by 2100 to the amount derived from fossil fuels in 2000 —a huge challenge, but not impossible.

Another area requiring immediate intensified work, Dr. Holdren and other experts say, is large-scale demonstration of systems for capturing carbon dioxide from coal burning before too many old-style plants are built.

All of the components for capturing carbon dioxide and disposing of it underground are already in use, particularly in oil fields, where pressurized carbon dioxide is used to drive the last dregs of oil from the ground.

In this area, said David Keith, an energy expert at the University of Calgary, “We just need to build the damn things on a billion-dollar scale.”

In the United States, the biggest effort along these lines is the 285-megawatt Futuregen power plant planned by the Energy Department, along with private and international partners, that was announced in 2003 by President Bush and is scheduled to be built in either Illinois or Texas by 2012. James L. Connaughton, the chairman of the White House Council on Environmental Quality, said the Bush administration was making this a high priority.

“We share the view that a significantly more aggressive agenda on carbon capture and storage and zero-pollution coal is necessary,” he said, adding that the administration has raised annual spending on storage options “from essentially zero to over $70 million.”

Europe is pursuing a suite of such plants, including one in China, but also well behind the necessary pace, several experts said.

Even within the Energy Department, some experts are voicing frustration over the pace of such programs. “What I don’t like about Futuregen,” said Dr. Kutscher, an engineer at the National Renewable Energy Laboratory in Golden, Colo., “is the word ‘future’ in there.”

Beyond a Holding Action

No matter what happens in the next decade or so, many experts say, the second and probably hardest phase of stabilizing the level of carbon dioxide will fall to the generation of engineers and entrepreneurs now in diapers, and the one after that. And those innovators will not have much to build on without greatly increased investment now in basic research.

There is plenty of ferment. Current research ranges from work on algae strains that can turn sunlight into hydrogen fuel to the inkjet-style printing of photovoltaic cells — a technique that could greatly cut solar-energy costs if it worked on a large scale. One company is promoting high-flying kite-like windmills to harvest the boundless energy in the jet stream.

But all of the small-scale experimentation will never move into the energy marketplace without a much bigger push not only for research and development, but for the lesser-known steps known as demonstration and deployment.

In this arena, there is a vital role for government spending, many experts agree, particularly on “enabling technologies” — innovations that would never be pursued by private industry because they mainly amount to a public good, not a potential source of profit, said Christopher Green, an economist at McGill University.

Examples include refining ways to securely handle radioactive waste from nuclear reactors; testing repositories for carbon dioxide captured at power plants; and, perhaps more important, improving the electricity grid so that it can manage large flows from intermittent sources like windmills and solar panels.

“Without storage possibilities on a large scale,” Mr. Green said, “solar and wind will be relegated to niche status.”

While private investors and entrepreneurs are jumping into alternative energy projects, they cannot be counted on to solve such problems, economists say, because even the most aggressive venture capitalists want a big payback within five years.

Many scientists say the only real long-term prospect for significantly substituting for fossil fuels is a breakthrough in harvesting solar power. This has been understood since the days of Thomas Edison. In a conversation with Henry Ford and the tire tycoon Harvey Firestone in 1931, shortly before Edison died, he said: “I’d put my money on the sun and solar energy. What a source of power! I hope we don’t have to wait until oil and coal run out before we tackle that.”

California, following models set in Japan and Germany, is trying to help solar energy with various incentives.

But such initiatives mainly pull existing technologies into the market, experts say, and do little to propel private research toward the next big advances.

The Role of Leadership

At the federal level, the Bush administration was criticized by Republican and Democratic lawmakers at several recent hearings on climate change.

Mr. Connaughton, the lead White House official on the environment, said most critics are not aware of how much has been done.

“This administration has developed the most sophisticated and carefully considered strategic plan for advancing the technologies that are a necessary part of the climate solution,” he said. He added that the administration must weigh tradeoffs with other pressing demands like health care.

Since 2001, when Mr. Bush abandoned a campaign pledge to limit carbon dioxide from power plants, he has said that too little is known about specific dangers of global warming to justify hard targets or mandatory curbs for the gas.

He has also asserted that any solution will lie less in regulation than in innovation.

“My answer to the energy question also is an answer to how you deal with the greenhouse-gas issue, and that is new technologies will change how we live,” he said in May.

But critics, including some Republican lawmakers, now say that mounting evidence for risks — including findings that administration officials have tried to suppress of late — justifies prompt, more aggressive action to pay for or spur research and speed the movement of climate-friendly energy options into the marketplace.

Martin I. Hoffert, an emeritus professor of physics at New York University, said that what was needed was for a leader to articulate the energy challenge as President John F. Kennedy made his case for the mission to the moon. President Kennedy said they were imperative, “not because they are easy, but because they are hard.”

In a report on competitiveness and research released last year, the National Academies, the country’s top science advisory body, urged the government to substantially expand spending on long-term basic research, particularly on energy.

The report, titled “Rising Above the Gathering Storm,” recommended that the Energy Department create a research-financing body similar to the 48-year-old Defense Advanced Research Projects Agency, or Darpa, to make grants and attack a variety of energy questions, including climate change.

Darpa, created after the Soviet Union launched Sputnik in 1957, was set up outside the sway of Congress to provide advances in areas like weapons, surveillance and defensive systems. But it also produced technologies like the Internet and the global positioning system for navigation.

Mr. Connaughton said it would be premature to conclude that a new agency was needed for energy innovation.

But many experts, from oil-industry officials to ecologists, agree that the status quo for energy research will not suffice.

The benefits of an intensified energy quest would go far beyond cutting the risks of dangerous climate change, said Roger H. Bezdek, an economist at Management Information Systems, a consulting group.

The world economy, he said, is facing two simultaneous energy challenges beyond global warming: the end of relatively cheap and easy oil, and the explosive demand for fuel in developing countries.

Advanced research should be diversified like an investment portfolio, he said. “The big payoff comes from a small number of very large winners,” he said. “Unfortunately, we cannot pick the winners in advance.”

Ultimately, a big increase in government spending on basic energy research will happen only if scientists can persuade the public and politicians that it is an essential hedge against potential calamity.

That may be the biggest hurdle of all, given the unfamiliar nature of the slowly building problem — the antithesis of epochal events like Pearl Harbor, Sputnik and 9/11 that triggered sweeping enterprises.

“We’re good at rushing in with white hats,” said Bobi Garrett, associate director of planning and technology management at the National Renewable Energy Laboratory. “This is not a problem where you can do that.”
Indianhead
http://www.gao.gov/highlights/d10546thigh.pdf


March 18, 2010
CLIMATE CHANGE
Preliminary Observations on Geoengineering Science, Federal Efforts, and Governance Issues

What GAO Found

Substantial uncertainties remain on the efficacy and potential environmental impacts of proposed geoengineering approaches, because geoengineering research and field experiments to date have been limited. GAO’s review of relevant studies and interviews with experts to date found that relatively few modeling studies for SRM approaches have been published, and only limited small-scale testing—primarily of carbon storage activities relevant to CDR approaches—have been performed. Consequently, the experts GAO spoke with stated that a sustained effort of coordinated and cooperative research would be needed to determine whether proposed geoengineering approaches would be effective at a scale necessary to reduce temperatures and to attempt to anticipate and respond to potential unintended consequences—including the political, ethical, and economic issues surrounding the use of certain approaches. Specifically, just as the effects of climate change in general are expected to vary by region, so would the effects of certain large-scale geoengineering efforts, therefore, potentially creating relative winners and losers and thus sowing the seeds of future conflict.
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I see...so we reflect a bunch of sunlight, or reduce
CO2...and we might start a war? Wonderful.
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