http://www.swingstateproject.com/elections...lections_house/

Saturday, April 08, 2006
CA-50: New Datamar Poll
Posted by DavidNYC
Datamar (PDF) has a new poll out on CA-50 ("high-propensity" registered voters, March 22-24 in parens):
Francine Busby (D): 39 (36)
Eric Roach ®: 17.5 (11.2)
Brian Bilbray ®: 16.4 (11.7)
Howard Kaloogian: 9.5 (10.6)
Bill Morrow: 6.8 (4.8)
Alan Uke: 4.3 (3)
Other: 6.3 (18)
(MoE: ±3.03%)

A few important things:

1) Datamar uses an automated call system. Some times this methodology works well (SurveyUSA) and sometimes it doesn't (Rasmussen). The verdict is still out on Datamar.

2) The sample is skewed very Republican: 55R-33D-9I. Voter registration in the district is 44R-30D. The district voted 55-44 for Bush. What's more, with half of all absentee ballots sent in, the current breakdown so far is 46R-37D-14I. (I have those numbers directly from the campaign.) So basically, I ain't buyin' a 22-point GOP advantage.

3) Perhaps most importantly, the NRCC would not parachute in with an emergency $360,000 ad buy if they thought Busby was going to get 39% on Tuesday. The only reason to hit the panic button this early is if you think Busby can wrap it all up with 50% in round one. The guys at the NRCC aren't idiots - remember how they bailed Jean Schmidt's ass out at the last minute? This time, though, we've got a stronger candidate, a former Congressman in jail and the national wind at our backs.

Francine's campaign is now all about GOTV. If you're anywhere near the San Diego area at all, please consider volunteering. We may just have a chance to drive a serious nail into the GOP coffin right here.

UPDATE: Chris makes a good observation. When you multiply candidate preference (as expressed in the SUSA and Datamar polls) by the partisan breakdown of the absentee ballots, Busby clocks in at 44%. However (and this is a big however), Republicans generally seem to do better at turning out the early vote. This happened in both the CA-48 special and the TX-28 primary. (Okay, technically Cuellar wasn't a Republican. But I still think the analogy holds.) So Busby may indeed get closer to 50%. Bowers is thinking 47%, but I'm not making any predictions.

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Here's some good news about Busby

50th Congressional District – Special Election
District takes its first step to fill seat


Cunningham post is at stake today
By Dani Dodge
UNION-TRIBUNE STAFF WRITER
April 11, 2006

They have gone through shock, denial and anger. Now people betrayed by Randy “Duke” Cunningham's corruption in the 50th Congressional District will have the opportunity for true acceptance: voting for someone to replace him.

Today, voters from Clairement Mesa and La Jolla north to Carlsbad and Escondido will go to the polls to choose from among 18 candidates who want to represent them in Congress. The seat opened up after Cunningham pleaded guilty in November to taking $2.4 million in bribes from defense contractors and resigned.

Many candidates decided to run in the special election out of outrage over Cunningham's deceit, as well as the rare opportunity to run in a district without an incumbent. On the ballot are 14 Republicans, two Democrats, one Libertarian and one independent.

Many candidates finished the campaign by walking door-to-door and making phone calls urging people to vote. Political scientists predict a light turnout because the congressional race is the only issue on the ballot. That means a small number of votes could make the difference between going to Congress and staying home.

If a candidate wins a majority of the votes, he or she will complete the last eight months of Cunningham's term. If no one gets a majority, each party's top vote-getter will meet in a runoff June 6. Complicating matters, that's the date of the statewide primary election and the ballot will also include the nominating contests for the next full term in the 50th district. Many of the same people on today's ballot will be on the primary election ballot.

Among the leading candidates are Cardiff school board member Francine Busby, a Democrat, and several Republicans: lobbyist and former Rep. Brian Bilbray, former Del Mar Mayor Richard Earnest, businessman Bill Hauf, former Assemblyman Howard Kaloogian, state Sen. Bill Morrow, businessman Eric Roach and businessman Alan Uke.

As of yesterday, the county's elections office had received about half of the 112,000 absentee ballots issued to voters. In typical elections, about 80 percent to 90 percent are returned. Registrar of Voters Mikel Haas wasn't willing to make a turnout prediction based on the absentee ballot returns. He said many of those voters may plan to drop off the ballots at polling places.

“It wasn't a complicated ballot,” Haas said, “but it was a complicated choice.”





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Dani Dodge: (760) 476-8242; dani.dodge@uniontrib.com

Find this article at:
http://www.signonsandiego.com/news/politic...-1m11elect.html 

Brian Bilbray won the most votes of the Republicans running against Busby.  Bilbray is a moderate Republican, has been active on border issues for a long time, and is not the worst person who could have come out ahead of the Republican pack.  He only got 15% of the vote, but Republicans are convinced that they will retain this seat.

Beamer, that's your district, isn't it?

Busby ended up with 44%- which is not bad considering how Republican it is...

Maybe she can do better than Hackett!