http://www.spacewar.com/reports/a060721192417.ba3phzmc.html

WAR REPORT
Air power shortcomings shadow Israel's next steps in Lebanon


by Jim Mannion
Washington (AFP) Jul 21, 2006
Israeli air power alone is capable of damaging Hezbollah but not defeating the Shiite militia, confronting Israel with a choice of a ground offensive in southern Lebanon or a diplomatic settlement, US military analysts said.
Israeli ground forces already have begun conducting "pinpoint" operations inside southern Lebanon, Israeli officials said, amid a buildup of forces near Israel's northern border that could signal a larger ground offensive.

Israeli Brigadier General Michael Herzog, a visiting military fellow at a Washington think tank, said Israel's objective in the south was to clear a kilometer wide strip along the rugged border.

Israel envisions the strip as the first layer of a buffer zone about 12 miles wide that would be occupied by Lebanese army and international forces, he said.

However, heavily armed Hezbollah fighters entrenched in heavily fortified bunkers in the difficult rugged terrain were putting up fierce resistance in the border area, he said.

"There is no Israeli intention of a wide-scale invasion of Lebanon on the scale of '82 or '78. But it's clear to me that Israel may require more forces to uproot Hezbollah," he said in an interview.

The risks of a ground offensive are not lost on the Israelis. They failed to pacify southern Lebanon in a bloody 18 year campaign that ended in 2000 with the withdrawal of Israeli forces and Hezbollah as the uncontested power in the south.

"If you're thinking about being decisive, in some sense it's got to be an appealing strategy," said Michael O'Hanlon, a military analyst at the Brookings Institution. "But it's a high risk roll of the dice."

James Corum, a military expert at the Army Command and General Staff College at Fort Leavenworth, Kansas, said he doubted the Israelis "would do anything more than send raiding teams and very short-term ground forces."

"And if ground forces do move, it would be for a very short period to basically destroy every piece of Hezbollah infrastructure within 20 miles of the border, within rocket range of Israel, and then withdraw fairly quickly," he told AFP.

Hezbollah has fired hundreds of rockets into Israel, killing 15 people, in the 10 days since its capture of two Israeli soldiers in a raid set off waves of retaliatory Israeli air strikes across Lebanon.

The Iranian-backed militia has reached deeper into Israel with longer range missiles than ever before, and it struck an Israeli naval vessel early in the conflict with an anti-ship missile believed to be of Iranian manufacture.

Israeli fighter jets responded by targeting missile launchers and other military targets -- bunkers, storage areas, communications sites, headquarters.

They have also bombed the Beirut International Airport, roads leading to Syria, and roads and bridges in southern Lebanon to interrupt the flow of supplies and missiles to Hezbollah and put pressure on the Lebanese government. Israeli warships clamped on a naval blockade.

Lebanese officials have said nearly 340 people have been killed in the air strikes.

Herzog estimated that 80 percent of the targets were military while the remaining 20 percent hit civilian infrastructure that the Israelis regarded as supporting or potentially supporting Hezbollah.

"The focus was, is on Hezbollah. Anything that can strengthen Hezbollah, enhance Hezbollah's capabilities, that will be targeted," he said.

But the attacks have not stopped Hezbollah missile launches from the south, underscoring the difficulty of taking out fleeting short-range missile launchers from the air.

Corum, author of "Air Power in Small Wars," published in 2003, said Hezbollah has proved to be "emminently resistant to being coerced by firepower."

"Any time you punished Hezbollah, killed some of their people, they had people lining up to volunteer to be suicide bombers," he said.

O'Hanlon estimates that past air campaigns suggests that Israel may succeed in reducing Hezbollah's military capability by a quarter through air strikes.

But the longer the air campaign goes on, the more Hezbollah is likely to benefit from international outcry over civilian casualties in air strikes captured by the world's media, he said.

The military gain is "not enough to warrant much more of something that already has probably gone too far in terms of Israel's strategic interests."

Corum, however, suggests that Israel is attempting to use air power to create conditions on the ground for a favorable political settlement.

"No, I don't think the Israelis think they can defeat Hezbollah," he said.

"However, if they knock out a major proportion of Hezbollah's military infrastructure, and damage them severely, it will be somewhat easier for the Lebanese to assert control.

"And it will also be a lot of easier for a much more serious peacekeeping force to come in and cover the southern border of Lebanon," he said.

http://www.spacewar.com/reports/Toll_Of_Is...Itself_999.html

WAR REPORT
Toll Of Israel Strategy Could Be War With Lebanon Itself

In the aftermath of Hezbollah's attacking and kidnapping of the Israeli soldiers across the border, Israel implemented a "shock and awe" strategy that blasted away every piece of infrastructure that the Lebanese painstakingly built over the past fifteen years.
By Nadim Matta
Stamford, Conn. (UPI) Jul 21, 2006
When Hezbollah embarked on its provocative incursion into Israel, most Lebanese (apart from ardent Shiite radicals) saw this incident for what it was: a reckless act aimed at advancing the interests of the Iranian and Syrian regimes, at great risk to both Lebanon and its people.
But the mood in Lebanon has drastically changed over the past few days. Very few now blame Hezbollah, or actively agree with calls for its disarmament (even though the majority of the population supported this goal prior to the recent events). And virtually no one would be pleased if the two Israeli soldiers were surrendered under the threat of Israel's continuation of its systematic destruction of Lebanon's infrastructure.

Understanding this radical transformation in mind-set can shed some light on the unintended -- yet tragically predictable -- consequences of U.S. policy in the Middle East.

What has happened in the span of a few days?

In the aftermath of Hezbollah's attacking and kidnapping of the Israeli soldiers across the border, Israel implemented a "shock and awe" strategy that blasted away every piece of infrastructure that the Lebanese painstakingly built over the past fifteen years. As the long-in-place agreement to restrict activities in southern Lebanon and northern Israel to military targets gave way to open warfare, Hezbollah also unleashed its deadly barrages of Katyusha rockets over northern Israel.

In a few infernal days, Israeli planes and warships managed to destroy the fruits of fifteen years of labour of ordinary Lebanese citizens determined to restore the country to a semblance of its pre-war level of development. Significantly, only three Hezbollah fighters were killed in the Israeli raids, while more than two hundred Lebanese civilians, including whole families, perished. It is equally sad that Israeli civilians were killed and wounded by Hezbollah rockets.

In what can only be viewed as an insult to the intelligence of informed citizens everywhere, U.S. President George W. Bush argued simply that Israel "has the right to defend itself." Luckily for Bush, Israel was able to articulate a more plausible explanation for its strategy: it was ensuring that Hezbollah will not smuggle the Israeli soldiers out of Lebanon, and it was cutting off Hezbollah's arms supply routes.

In reality, this explanation is not borne out by the facts on the ground. For example, Israeli jets bombed the highest bridge in the Middle East -- a few miles from my hometown on the main road between Beirut and Damascus -- disabling it and rendering it unusable for months to come. Curiously, the Israelis were not satisfied by disabling the bridge. They came back the next day and completely demolished the remainder of the structure -- as if to simply add tens of million of dollars to the eventual cost of repair. Israel also bombed power generating plants, cellular telephone towers, gas stations, foodstock warehouses and purely commercial targets. I am not a military expert, but none of these seem like relevant targets if the aim is to block Hezbollah from transporting the Israeli soldiers out of the country or to prevent it from receiving arms from Syria and Iran.

The more plausible rationale for the 'shock and awe' operation is to make the situation so painful for Lebanese civilians that they 'take responsibility' for the actions of one of their own, the Hezbollah militia. The argument goes as follows: if the cost is made high enough, citizens will pressure their government into doing what it has been struggling to do for months -- disarming Hezbollah. This strategy was beginning to work in the first day of the Israeli operation, as voices in the country began to be raised against Hezbollah and its reckless action. But as the intensity and the perniciousness of the Israeli bombing escalated, even the most moderate civilians in Lebanon experienced an emotional transformation into what can be likened to the revulsion of an innocent person being terrorized into submission by a vastly superior power. In an affront to human dignity and disregard for human life, Israel is inflicting severe pain and suffering on a huge number of civilians to incite them to do its bidding.

Hezbollah may be accused of doing the same in Israel (though with a much more limited capacity to inflict pain). But then we would expect a terrorist organisation to commit acts of terrorism. A state committing the same acts, magnified many times over, with the same intentions, must be condemned and ultimately prevented by the world community. Otherwise, we would be sending yet another message to people and nations who feel wronged yet do not have the means to win the fight against their aggressors: your only recourse is to equip yourself with whatever means necessary to deter your aggressors. It would be a return to the law of the jungle that the world can ill afford in this age of nuclear proliferation.

By failing to act on behalf of Lebanon and to call Israel to account for its actions, the U.S. is putting the world at greater risk, and it is setting back by decades the cause of peace in the region.

To understand the sense of injustice that people in Lebanon feel about their situation, consider this analogy: black rights activists, indignant at police brutality towards fellow blacks, kidnap a white police officer and retreat into their black neighborhood, demanding the release of detained black activists in exchange for the police officer. The state calls in the exclusively white national guardsmen who surround the neighbourhood and start firing mortars into it, destroying businesses and killing whole families. To drive their point home, the national guardsmen cut off the electricity and water supply of the neighbourhood, and announce to the inhabitants that they, the community, will be held responsible for the actions of their radical fringes, and will continue to be pounded by heavy artillery until they rise up against the activists among them. Would blacks in the neighborhood rise against their reckless brothers, or would this response by state authorities take their fury towards their white neighbors to new and irreversibly hostile levels?

To put things in perspective, Lebanese civilians are experiencing the same type of revulsion towards Israel that American citizens felt towards Osama bin Laden and al-Qaida after Sept. 11. But blame is also directed at the U.S. government for its political and moral support of Israel in this affair. And I am not talking here about Lebanese Shiite fanatics. I am talking about Jane and John Doe of Lebanon: your average Sunni, Christian, Shiite and Druze who may otherwise hold living in the United States as their greatest aspiration.

The Lebanese are feeling tremendous indignation at the injustice they are facing. Let us not allow this indignation to fester and turn into new seeds of hatred. The U.S. had best seize the moment, quickly and decisively, to demonstrate that it understands there is no lasting peace for Israel or Lebanon without some measure of justice and dignity for all parties involved.

(Nadim Matta is a management consultant and U.S. citizen of Lebanese origin. During the civil war in Lebanon, he worked for USAID and for Save the Children Federation in Beirut. He can be reached at nadim@rhsa.com.)


Source: United Press International

http://www.spacewar.com/reports/A_Notebook...ideast_999.html
WAR REPORT
A Notebook Of Discordant Reports From The Mideast

CIA Headquarters.
By Arnaud De Borchgrave
UPI International Editor
Washington (UPI) Jul 21, 2006
Congress was near unanimous in its hosannas for Israel's military campaign to uproot Hezbollah from Lebanon's body politic. Only Sen. Chuck Hagel (R-Neb) was nuanced in his support, questioning Israel's disproportionate response to the capture of three Israeli soldiers. The intelligence community's Middle Eastern experts -- both on active duty and in retirement -- were clearly on a different page.
The ones we queried either served in the region as CIA station chiefs or were responsible for Middle Eastern departments in one of the 16 agencies that make up the 100,000-strong intelligence community. Those still on active duty would only react to our question on condition their names be withheld.

The barometer of Hezbollah's post-conflict influence will be the most relevant measure of the success or failure of the massively disproportionate Israeli military, in which the Bush administration has also invested so much of its rapidly dwindling political capital. So will Hezbollah emerge from the current crisis weaker, or stronger, than before hostilities began?

Graham Fuller, formerly Vice Chairman of the National Intelligence Council at the CIA, an accomplished Arabic scholar and historian, most recently author of the book "The Future of Political Islam": "Most of the U.S. thinks this crisis was started by Hamas and Hezbollah and that therefore those parties should be made to pay the price. A more objective reading of the situation would note U.S. and Israeli determination to strangle Hamas in the nest from day one, to starve it, humiliate it and, typically and expectedly, to drive its radical wing to undertake a guerrilla operation against Israel. So the region does not view this conflict as prompted by Hamas and Hezbollah, but rather as one made inevitable and justifiable by unrelenting and merciless pressure from the U.S. and Israel. I fear in the end this will be one more bloody chapter in this now widening struggle. In the interim, unseen to our eyes, the radical jihadis are making silent recruits every night through the flickering television images of yet new regional horrors. But sadly we will be seeing those recruits as they turn to action in weeks, months or even years from now.

Chuck Cogan, former Chief of the CIA's Near East Division, and station chief in several countries, now lecturing at Harvard: "The irony in all this is that Israel has an interest in a multicultural Lebanon and not an Islamist Lebanon, and the high hopes for the former are being dashed."

Ray Close, former CIA analyst for the Middle East: "Israeli actions in Lebanon are belligerently challenging the continued viability of the fragile coalition government that is struggling to achieve credibility and legitimacy at a critical period in Lebanon's history. Israeli actions are, even more importantly, threatening to revive the deep, sectarian divisions and inter-communal tensions that led to 15 years of tragic civil war (1975-90). American national interests will suffer more than Israel's if chaos results. Secondly, we Americans have other critical interests to worry about if we take a position that (continues to) support Israel's demand that Hezbollah must be totally defeated and disarmed (a futile objective in any case), and especially if Sheikh Hassan Nasrallah, the revered spiritual leader of Hezbollah, is physically harmed, the Shiite populations of Iraq and elsewhere in the Middle East will be inflamed -- greatly undermining American prospects of working cooperatively and constructively with the Shiite religious parties in Iraq that control the overwhelming political power in that country. Open confrontation of Hezbollah with the U.S., allied with Israel, will have a powerful impact on the Iranian people, as well."

Former CIA operative in the Middle East, now an analyst for the agency: "Even if the Israelis were again to occupy and hold a 20-mile defensive cordon sanitaire above Israel's northern border, then missiles of a 40 or 50 or 60-mile range, as the need demanded, would render that barrier obsolete and useless -- while Hezbollah guerrillas, using the other new set of super-weapons, the IED and the suicide bomber, would make Israelis just as vulnerable and just as miserable in that so-called 'protective zone' as they were during the 18 long years when they occupied the same swath of Lebanese territory the last time round. The same applies to Gaza. In 38 years, a large modern Israeli war machine, equipped with every high-tech weapon that modern military science can devise, has been unable to contain, much less defeat, a virulent and lethal resistance movement in tiny little Gaza.


Source: United Press International

http://www.spacewar.com/reports/German_Spi...ldiers_999.html

WAR REPORT
German Spies Working To Free Israeli Soldiers

German Chancellor Angela Merkel with US President George W. Bush. Photo courtesy of AFP. Berlin is hoping that a success in the BND/SWR mission could highly elevate the international standing of the German and Russian intelligence services.
By Stefan Nicola
UPI Germany Correspondent
Berlin (UPI) Jul 21, 2006
Germany is getting increasingly involved in the Middle East conflict, with reports the country's intelligence service is using contacts with Hezbollah and Hamas to try and free the kidnapped Israeli soldiers.
For several weeks, Germany's Federal Intelligence Service, or BND, in cooperation with Russian foreign intelligence service SWR, has used its channels in the Middle East in an effort to soothe tensions in the Israeli-Palestinian conflict, the Berliner Zeitung newspaper said Friday.

Government spokesman Ulrich Wilhelm Friday in Berlin did not want to give details on Germany's involvement.

"But since the release of the soldiers is one of the important preconditions for a solution to the current crisis... of course that's the goal one is working for," he said.

German Foreign Minister Frank-Walter Steinmeier and his Russian counterpart, Sergej Lavrov, on June 29 in Moscow discussed the kidnapping of Israeli soldier Cpl. Gilad Shalit, who had been taken to Gaza four days earlier.

When two more soldiers were abducted on July 12, Steinmeier and Lavrov in an evening telephone conversation agreed to expand intelligence cooperation to free the soldiers, the newspaper said.

German officials have been successful before: In 2004, BND head Ernst Uhlau, who at the time was the intelligence coordinator in Chancellor Gerhard Schroeder's office, managed a prisoner exchange between Hezbollah and Israel.

Israel at the time released hundreds of Arab prisoners in exchange for Hezbollah handing over a kidnapped Israeli businessman and the bodies of three soldiers.

Germany has been trusted for long in the region: In the 1980s, then Chancellor Helmut Kohl was asked to mediate in the quest for Ron Arad, who had been shot down over Lebanese territory. Arad, however, remains missing to this day.

A success in the BND/SWR mission could highly elevate the international standing of the German and Russian intelligence services. The BND could especially use some props, given that it is embattled by a parliamentary inquiry at home into its role in the war on terror, where it has been accused of using dubious methods.

There is no doubt Germany is getting involved: Steinmeier is expected to travel to the region soon, according to information from the foreign ministry. Some 3,300 Germans have been evacuated from Lebanon already, with more waiting to get out.

United Nations Secretary-General Kofi Annan and several international leaders had called for a U.N. force to stabilize the region during last weekend's Group of Eight summit in St. Petersburg.

On Friday, U.S. Secretary of State Condoleezza Rice was in New York to

meet with three U.N. envoys who recently returned from a Middle East mission to assess conditions there.

While supporting the idea of a U.N.-mandated force, Merkel has been quite cautious when it comes to German involvement. The Bundeswehr (Germany`s armed forces) already is a major contributor to the European Union`s mission in the Democratic Republic of the Congo, and is playing a leading role in Afghanistan, where it is part of the International Security Assistance Force.

The Bundeswehrverband, a German soldiers` interest group, however, had strongly protested against German involvement in the Congo, claiming its resources were overstretched and that Germany had no interests in the region.

German Defense Minister Franz Josef Jung said Friday that the first priority should be getting Israel and Hezbollah to agree to a cease-fire. The Bundeswehr is not keen on having to shoulder yet another mission, but observers say it will be hard to say no given burden of Germany`s history with Israel.

'How should Germany react, if everyone says `yes`?' Gert Weisskirchen, a foreign policy expert of the Social Democrats, asked in the Berliner Zeitung. 'Saying `no` then would really no longer be an option.'

Berthold Meyer, a Middle East expert at the Peace Research Institute Frankfurt, Friday told United Press International in a telephone interview that Germany, given its past, will likely not turn its back on such a mission.

'I understood the Bundeswehr`s reluctance to take part in the Congo mission,' Meyer said. 'But this is different. We have a moral responsibility with Israel and in the region. I can`t imagine that the Bundeswehrverband will protest in the same way.'

But the force will have to be assembled very quickly to contain the escalating violence. Reports surfaced Friday that Israel is preparing a ground offensive into Lebanon, a move that would undermine any further stabilization efforts before they even begin.

The U.N. Security Council would have to make a decision Friday or later this weekend so the EU Foreign Ministers could discuss the resolution Monday during their regular session.

If called upon to participate in such a mission, German lawmakers would have to agree in parliament to send soldiers to the Middle East, a step that could further slow down any progress.


Source: United Press International

http://www.spacewar.com/reports/a060723085342.up73aarm.html
Israel punches into Lebanon as civilians flee


by Jihad Siqlawi
Tyre, Lebanon (AFP) Jul 23, 2006
Israeli warplanes blitzed southern and eastern Lebanon on Sunday after troops in tanks and armoured cars punched across the border and seized a strategic village, intensifying the war on Hezbollah despite mounting concern over the plight of civilians.
Shiite guerrillas responded with a new hail of rocket fire on Israel's third city of Haifa that killed two people, while the UN reported fighting around the village of Marun Al-Ras taken over by Israeli forces on Saturday.

As the bloody conflict entered its 12th day, top diplomats from France, Germany and Britain were heading to the region ahead of a visit by US Secretary of State Condoleezza Rice, who rejects ceasefire calls as a "false promise."

In a wave of pre-dawn raids, fighter-bombers for the first time struck directly inside the main southern city of Sidon, where tens of thousands of Lebanese have sought refuge from the relentless Israeli offensive.

A three-storey building housing a Hezbollah religious centre was hit.

Israel also targeted Hezbollah's power base in Beirut's Shiite-dominated southern suburbs and struck factories, roads and bridges in air strikes in the eastern Baalbek region, killing one person.

Streams of people, many waving white flags, are making a desperate trek from southern Lebanon after Israel ordered them to leave their homes, raising fears of a largescale ground invasion.

More than 350 people have been killed in Israel's massive blitz against Lebanon which was launched after the capture of two soldiers by guerrillas from the Shiite Muslim group in a deadly border attack on July 12.

A total of 37 Israelis have died in the fighting.

As international efforts to end the conflict gathered pace, there was growing criticism of Israel's offensive, which has left Lebanon virtually cut off from the world, made hundreds of thousands refugees in their own country and destroyed billions of dollars of infrastructure.

"The whole thing has to stop. It's no natural disaster but a man-made crisis. This is a senseless war. It should never have started. It should never have been carried out like it is now," UN relief coordinator Jan Egeland said.

He was in Beirut Sunday to launch an appeal for millions of dollars in aid to help the half million civilians displaced by what the United Nations says has created a "catastrophic" humanitarian situation.

But the White House said Saturday it was keeping to its policy on backing Israel's right to self-defence, as Rice prepared Sunday to leave for the region where she is expected to hold talks with Israeli and Palestinian leaders.

"We are keeping to our adopted position. Israel has the right to defend herself," a White House spokesman told AFP.

The United States is also expediting an arms shipment of precision bombs to Israel from an arms deal struck last year.

Packed into tanks, bulldozers and armoured cars, Israeli troops cut across the border near the town of Avivim Saturday in what the army said was another "pinpoint operation" against Shiite Muslim guerrillas.

General Beni Gantz said Israeli air and ground forces "have more or less completed taking over the village of Marun Al-Ras," strategically located 911 meters (3,000 feet) above sea level.

A spokesman for the UN peacekeeping force in Lebanon said Israeli troops and tanks were inside the hotspot village and that there was fighting in the area, where five Israeli soldiers and several Hezbollah militiamen have been killed in recent days.

Israeli forces have been mounting regular incursions into Lebanon in addition to its massive air bombardment, calling up thousands of reservists and massing troops along its northern border.

Justice Minister Haim Ramon said the aim of the offensive was to keep Hezbollah -- which controls southern Lebanon in the absence of the regular Lebanese army -- at least 20 kilometres (13 miles) from the frontier.

"For Israel, there are no longer civilians in southern Lebanon," Ramon warned. "We want to uproot Hezbollah but in a prudent manner to prevent losses."

He said the current offensive would not match the magnitude of the 1982 invasion, which left about 20,000 people dead, traumatising Lebanon and plunging Israel also into a lethal quagmire.

On Saturday, Israel pounded television transmission stations and mobile telephone masts in raids across the country that left five dead, including a television station employee.

"The Israelis are looking to destroy sound and image in Lebanon -- the last weapons this country has -- after bombarding infrastructure," Telecommunications Minister Marwan Hamadeh said.

Britain's junior foreign office minister Kim Howells made London's most unequivocal criticism yet of Israel's offensive, in stark contrast to the line taken by Washington and his own prime minister.

"These are not surgical strikes. It's very difficult to understand the kind of military tactics that are being used," Howells said during a visit to Beirut.

"If they are chasing Hezbollah, then go for Hezbollah. You don't go for the entire Lebanese nation," he said. "I very much hope that the Americans understand what's happening to Lebanon -- the destruction of the infrastructure, the death of so many children and so many people."

Israel said it opened a 50-mile-long and five-mile-wide (80-kilometre by eight-kilometre) safe passage to Beirut for ships and aircraft, a humanitarian corridor to allow aid to the Lebanese.

Israel's air and sea blockade put Lebanon's only international airport out of action, and the bombing of houses, roads, bridges, factories, warehouses and trucks created scenes reminiscent of the 1975-1990 civil war.

But US President George W. Bush maintained his backing for Israel's campaign as Rice prepared travel to the region in search of what she described as a long-term solution.

"I believe sovereign nations have the right to defend their people from terrorist attack, and to take the necessary action to prevent those attacks," Bush said in his weekly radio address.

Underlining the repercussions of the conflict on the whole region, he said Syria was "a primary sponsor" of Hezbollah and has given the militia Iranian-made weapons.

Syrian Deputy Foreign Minister Faisal Mukdad said Damascus is ready to open a "dialogue" with the United States to resolve the crisis.

Meanwhile thousands of people around the world on Saturday bashed drums, brandished placards and chanted slogans to demand an end to Israel's offensive.

Foreign governments also continued to evacuate their citizens, mainly to the neighbouring island of Cyprus which is battling to find temporary accommodation and flights for the estimated 70,000 evacuees at the height of its holiday season.

Israel is also pressing on with its offensive on the Gaza Strip, where at least 106 people have been killed in two weeks. It aims to retrieve a soldier snatched by Palestinian militants and to stop rocket fire.

NEW CONFLICT IN MIDEAST CONFOUNDS U.S., ISRAEL - DAVID WOOD (BALTIMORE SUN, JULY 23): One of the Army's rising stars, Lt. Gen. David H. Petraeus, who heads the Army's Combined Arms Center at Fort Leavenworth, Kan., has pushed hard for the Army to develop what he calls "non-kinetic" skills, meaning those that don't involve firepower: language skills, cultural awareness, the ability to negotiate among warlords or to organize schools, health clinics and defense militias in small towns in Afghanistan, for example.
http://www.baltimoresun.com/news/nationwor...ack=1&cset=true

HEZBOLLAH GAMBLES ON HOLDING SHI'ITE HEARTS AND MINDS - THANASSIS CAMBANIS (BOSTON GLOBE, JULY 23)
http://www.boston.com/news/world/middleeas...d_minds?mode=PF

FEARS OF INCREASING HEZBOLLAH'S POPULARITY: AS THE ISRAELI MILITARY CAMPAIGN CONTINUES, THE LEBANESE POPULATION'S SUFFERING GROWS -- AND ITS STANCE TOWARDS HEZBOLLAH BECOMES MORE COMPLEX. AS SOME PARTS OF THE COUNTRY RALLY AROUND THE ISLAMIC MILITANTS, OTHERS IN LEBANON BLAME THE TERRORISTS FOR THEIR CURRENT WOES - ULRIKE PUTZ (SPIEGEL, JULY 20)
http://service.spiegel.de/cache/internatio...,427754,00.html

A FIRST STEP BACK FROM THE BRINK OP ED CONTRIBUTORS (NEW YORK TIMES, JULY 22): With chaos threatening to engulf Lebanon, the need to resolve the conflict in the Middle East has rarely seemed so urgent. The Op-Ed editors went to seven experts with experience in the region, asking each of them what should be the first step toward defusing the crisis.
http://www.nytimes.com/2006/07/22/opinion/...%2fContributors

CONDI'S MIDEAST MISSION: AN OPENING TO DISARM HEZBOLLAH AND ISOLATE IRAN ? EDITORIAL (OPINION JOURNAL FROM THE WALL STREET JOURNAL EDITORIAL PAGE, JULY 24): After some initial uncertainty, and mixed messages from the State Department, the Bush Administration now seems properly focused on exploiting the clash between Hezbollah and Israel as a strategic opening.
http://www.opinionjournal.com/editorial/fe...ml?id=110008695

TIME FOR REAL DIPLOMACY: VIEWPOINT: FORMER NATIONAL SECURITY ADVISER ZBIGNIEW BRZEZINSKI ARGUES THAT SECRETARY RICE MUST STAY IN THE REGION AS LONG AS IT TAKES - AND TALK TO EVERYONE - ZBIGNIEW BRZEZINSKI (TIME, JULY 23)
http://www.time.com/time/nation/article/0,...1218021,00.html

BACK INTO HISTORY: THE MIDDLE EAST CRISIS IS GIVING BUSH A SECOND CHANCE TO BE A PEACEMAKER - MIKE ALLEN (TIME, JULY 23): By sending Rice to the region, the White House is gambling that Arab governments fear the Hizballah militants more than they resent the Israelis.
http://www.time.com/time/magazine/article/...1218059,00.html

. . . . DEADLINE PERILS - ARIEL COHEN (WASHINGTON TIMES, JULY 24): The United States should not impose any deadline that would press Israel to cease its fire.
http://www.washtimes.com/functions/print.p...23-093641-6456r

TEHRAN, HEZBOLLAH AND A 'CEASEFIRE' EDITORIAL (WASHINGTON TIMES, JULY 24): The Bush administration needs to continue to fend off ill-considered plans to bring the Israeli operation in Lebanon to a premature conclusion.
http://www.washtimes.com/functions/print.p...23-093643-9501r

WEAK HORSES: MOST LIBERALS (AND THE ODD CONSERVATIVE) DON'T WANT TO FIGHT--BUSH DOES - WILLIAM KRISTOL (WEEKLY STANDARD, JULY 21): Bush, Blair, and the Post editors understand that the right policy is to stand behind Israel, and to support that nation in defeating terror --for its own sake, and on behalf of liberal civilization. They understand that we are at war with an axis of jihadist-terrorist organizations and the states that sponsor them.
http://www.weeklystandard.com/Content/Publ...12/468osmmx.asp

A STRANGE WAR: ISRAEL IS AT LAST BEING GIVEN AN OPPORTUNITY TO UNLOAD ON JIHADISTS - VICTOR DAVIS HANSON (NATIONAL REVIEW, JULY 21): If the United States really cares about human life and future peace, then we should talk ad nauseam about ?restraint? and ?proportionality? while privately assuring Israel the leeway to smash both Hamas and Hezbollah -- and humiliate Syria and Iran, who may well come off very poorly from their longed-for but bizarre war.
http://article.nationalreview.com/?q=MmE1O...DQ2N2ZmMjQ5MmM=

LETTING ISRAEL BE ISRAEL: BUSH'S CONSISTENT APPROACH TO WAR AND PEACE IN THE MIDDLE EAST - FRED BARNES (WEEKLY STANDARD, JULY 21)
http://www.weeklystandard.com/Content/Publ...12/477gtigo.asp

NATIONAL INTERESTS: ENDING THE MIDDLE EAST CONFLICT PREMATURELY WOULD BE A MISTAKE - CLIFFORD D. MAY (NATIONAL REVIEW, JULY 21): Hezbollah?s defeat would represent a setback for Syria, Iran and the global Militant Islamist movement that is waging war against the U.S. and other free nations.
http://article.nationalreview.com/?q=OGM0Y...MTM3ZTViMWM0NGQ

MODERNISM VS. FUNDAMENTALISM: BACKING FOR ISRAEL REVEALS TRUE NATURE OF CLASH IN LEBANON - AMOTZ ASA-EL (SAN FRANCISCO CHRONICLE, JULY 23): The free world must understand that defeating Hezbollah in particular, and fundamentalism in general, will take not only military resolve and diplomatic acrobatics, but also financial initiative and ideological conviction.
http://www.sfgate.com/cgi-bin/article.cgi?...&type=printable

ONWARD CAUTIOUS SOLDIERS - DAVID BROOKS (NEW YORK TIMES, JULY 23): We can't just let reckless tyrannies dominate the Middle East on the supposed grounds the region is not yet ready for freedom.
http://select.nytimes.com/2006/07/23/opini...agewanted=print
PAID SUBSCRIPTION

ARMAGEDDON -- I WANT FALWELL IN MY FOXHOLE: AT THE END OF THE DAY -- OR AT THE END OF DAYS -- ISRAEL HAS PLENTY OF TIME FOR ANYBODY WHO WANTS TO HELP THE JEWS - ZEV CHAFETS (LOS ANGELES TIMES, JULY 23): For millions of American evangelical voters, living right includes supporting Israel.
http://www.latimes.com/news/opinion/la-op-...inion-rightrail

HEZBOLLAH IS HERE - MICHELLE MALKIN (WASHINGTON TIMES, JULY 22): The Jew-hating terrorists of Hezbollah who call themselves the "party of God" are already in America, plotting attacks, raising money, slipping through the cracks.
http://www.washtimes.com/functions/print.p...21-090022-1236r

HEZBOLLAH'S APOCALYPSE NOW - AMAL SAAD-GHORAYEB (WASHINGTON POST, JULY 23): Hezbollah's face-off with Israel is not only a defensive war of survival (in response to the declared Israeli and U.S. objective of eliminating the organization), but also an attempt to shatter the myth of Israeli invincibility (which explains why Israel also views this conflict in existential terms).
http://www.washingtonpost.com/wp-dyn/conte...2101363_pf.html

FIND A BETTER WAY - BOB HERBERT (NEW YORK TIMES, JULY 24): The United States should have whispered into Israel?s ear, the message being: ?The carnage has to cease. We?ll find a better way.?
http://select.nytimes.com/2006/07/24/opini...2fBob%20Herbert
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STRENGTHENING MILITANTS, MARGINALIZING MODERATES IN THE MIDDLE EAST - BILL SCHER (HUFFINGTON POST, JULY 23): Truly befuddling is why the Bush administration did not use its leverage with the Israeli government to shore up Hamas pragmatists.
http://www.huffingtonpost.com/bill-scher/s...html?view=print

BUNKERED DOWN FOR A WAR OF ATTRITION - SAMI MOUBAYED (ASIA TIMES, JULY 22): The international community does not seem in a hurry to end the war. Spearheaded by the Americans (with the notable exceptions of Italy, Russia and France), countries have sided with Israel in its war on Hezbollah.
http://atimes.com/atimes/Middle_East/HG22Ak01.html

ISRAEL?S CRIMINAL ACCOMPLICE - PAUL CRAIG ROBERTS (COUNTERPUNCH, JULY 24): There never was any doubt of the Bush Regime?s complicity in Israel?s naked aggression against the Lebanese civilian population.
http://www.counterpunch.org/Roberts07242006.html

A PERILOUS EXCURSION INTO THE DISTANT PAST, STARTING SEVEN WHOLE WEEKS AGO: HEZBOLLAH, HAMAS AND ISRAEL: EVERYTHING YOU NEED TO KNOW - ALEXANDER COCKBURN (COUNTERPUNCH, JULY 21): Forcing the US to pressure Israel to settle the basic problem takes political courage, and virtually no US politician is prepared to buck the Israel lobby, however many families in Lebanon and Gaza may be sacrificed on the altar of such cowardice.
http://www.counterpunch.org/Cockburn07212006.html

DISASTER IN THE MAKING - CHARLEY REESE (ANTIWAR.COM, JULY 23): You can observe three important things simultaneously in the Middle East: One, Israel's total disregard for the lives and property of the Arab people; two, the effectiveness of the Israeli propaganda machine; and three, the utterly craven support for Israel by the U.S. government.
http://www.antiwar.com/reese/?articleid=9385

WHY ISRAELI BOMBING MIGHT NOT BE ENOUGH TO WIPE OUT HEZBOLLAH IT ALSO MIGHT LEAD TO BACKLASH AMONG LEBANESE - DAVID BIALE (SAN FRANCISCO CHRONICLE, JULY 23): Pinned down in Iraq, the American Army cannot attend to the real enemies in the Middle East region. And American diplomacy can no longer play its traditional role as "honest broker."
http://www.sfgate.com/cgi-bin/article.cgi?...&type=printable

SPANISH LESSONS FOR ISRAEL - NICHOLAS D. KRISTOF (NEW YORK TIMES, JULY 23): Israel is likely to kill enough Lebanese to outrage the world, increase anti-Israeli and anti-American attitudes, nurture a new generation of anti-Israeli guerrillas, and help hard-liners throughout the region and beyond.
http://select.nytimes.com/2006/07/23/opini...agewanted=print
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DARK STAIN OF CONFLICT WILL SPREAD, LINGER - ANTHONY H. CORDESMAN (BALTIMORE SUN, JULY 21, 2006): The regional effects will be deeply negative. Israel will have U.S. support, but images of Israeli attacks on Lebanon will further alienate Arabs and Muslims throughout the world.
http://www.baltimoresun.com/news/opinion/o...-oped-headlines

ISRAEL'S DISPROPORTIONATE VIOLENCE NO SURPRISE - JONATHAN COOK (ANTIWAR.COM, JULY 23): If the US allows itself to be handcuffed to Israel's even more extreme version of the "war on terror," the consequences will be dire not just for the Palestinians or the region, but for all of us.
http://www.antiwar.com/orig/cook.php?articleid=9390

BUSH ADMINISTRATION HAS MADE U.S. A POWERLESS PLAYER IN MIDDLE EAST - TRUDY RUBIN (BALTIMORE SUN, JULY 21): Preoccupied with Iraq, the United States pretty much bowed out of efforts to restart the Mideast peace process.
http://www.baltimoresun.com/news/opinion/o...-oped-headlines

WE HAVE TO TALK TO BAD GUYS - JOHN MCLAUGHLIN (WASHINGTON POST, JULY 23): Although the fighting in the Middle East is still raging, it is not too soon to start drawing lessons from these tragic events, among them that that even superpowers have to talk to bad guys and that there are no unilateral solutions to today's international problems.
http://www.washingtonpost.com/wp-dyn/conte...2101399_pf.html

LEBANON: BLACK & WHITE AND DEAD ALL OVER - LAWRENCE PINTAK (COMMON DREAMS, JULY 23): The Middle East is a messy place and the 'bad guys' are part of the equation. America's penchant for quick-fixes and simplistic bromides don?t work there. Iraq should have taught us that.
http://www.commondreams.org/views06/0723-21.htm

CONDI'S FLYING DUTCHMAN - MAUREEN DOWD (NEW YORK TIMES, JULY 22): Like her boss, Rice does not show any sign of tension over the fact that all of their schemes to democratize the Middle East ended up creating more fundamentalism, extremism, terrorism and anti-Americanism. Lebanon represents the shipwreck of our Middle East policy.
http://select.nytimes.com/2006/07/22/opini...fMaureen%20Dowd
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THE SHAME OF BEING AN AMERICAN - PAUL CRAIG ROBERTS (ANTIWAR.COM, JULY 23): Democracy is permitted only if it produces the results Bush and Israel want.
http://www.antiwar.com/roberts/?articleid=9381

POWER PLOY: WHY THREE ARAB REGIMES ARE PUBLICLY ALIGNING THEMSELVES AGAINST HEZBOLLAH AND IRAN - MARC LYNCH (AMERICAN PROSPECT, JULY 20): The quiet death of democracy promotion could be a tremendous hidden cost of the current crisis Lebanon crisis.
http://www.prospect.org/web/page.ww?sectio...articleId=11746

BALLOTS AND BULLETS - NOAH FELDMAN (NEW YORK TIMES, JULY 21): We are in the world of asymmetry, of democratically legitimated militias and armed bands that fight wars with powerful states. Democracy can no longer be seen as an end in itself, and the fate of peoples lies in their own hands.
http://www.nytimes.com/2006/07/21/magazine...agewanted=print

ARMAGEDDON -- BUSH'S MIDDLE EAST DEMOCRACY FLOP: THE U.S. HAS ALIENATED POTENTIAL ALLIES AND UNDERMINED ITS OWN STATED GOALS - ANATOL LIEVEN (LOS ANGELES TIMES, JULY 23): Now that the U.S. dream of combining democratization of the region with submission to Washington's policies is dead, the U.S. too is faced with a stark choice: seek genuine compromise with key regional actors, or be prepared to fight repeated wars.
http://www.latimes.com/news/opinion/commen...omment-opinions

THE 'DECIDER' HAS RULES, ALL OF THEM ARE BIG, 'YO' - ROGER COHEN (NEW YORK TIMES, JULY 22): Among the 20 cardinal rules of the American president: Always push freedom and democracy, especially in the Middle East, and even when the newest democracies are being bombed by your ally; Never stray from the war on terror as paradigm; Israel is always right, or about right, or near enough right, or at least more right than its enemies.
http://select.nytimes.com/iht/2006/07/22/w...agewanted=print
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Rice vetoes ‘temporary solutions' Ynetnews
US secretary of state arrives in Israel as part of effort to diplomatically resolve Israel-Hizbullah crisis. ‘Goal of Hizbullah is to set the world aflame and we will not let them succeed,’ Rice proclaims.
US Secretary of State Condoleezza Rice vetoed temporary solutions to the Israel-Lebanon crisis during a Monday evening meeting with Foreign Minister Tzipi Livni. "Any peace is going to have to be based on enduring principles and not on temporary solutions," Rice said shortly after arriving in Israel Monday night. Rice flew to Israel immediately following a round of diplomatic meetings in Beirut with Lebanese Premier Fouad Siniora. She stressed that in advancing a solution to the crisis the international community needed to be guided by UN resolution 1559, which stipulates the disarmament of Hizbullah and the redeployment of Lebanese forces along the southern border."The free world is facing a threat, the goal of Hןzbullah is to set the world aflame and we will not let them succeed," she said. "This is a difficult time for the Israeli people, it is a difficult time for the Lebanese people, it is a difficult time for the Palestinian people." Rice expressed concern from the humanitarian situation in Lebanon. No one wants to see innocent civilians killed under the current conditions in Lebanon, she said, noting that she planned to discuss the issue further in the framework of her Israeli visit.

Livni: We know why we're fighting
Foreign Minister Tzipi Livni also highlighted UN resolution 1559: “The international community and the free world led by the United States are acting out of a common understanding not merely of the causes of the crisis, but also of the method of solving it – based on UN Security Council resolution 1559 and the G8’s decisions.” “The kidnapped soldiers must be released. Hizbullah must be disarmed and the Lebanese government’s sovereignty must be enforced across the state. I want to be clear – there is not conflict between Israel and the citizens of Lebanon. But Israel has no greater duty than its duty towards its citizens," Livni said. "In my opinion, this is a moment of truth not only for Israel and the Lebanese government, but for the entire international community which must act to enforce its decisions and force the Lebanese government to confront Hizbullah and commit to the decisions made, for the sake of all of our futures,” she added. The foreign minister used the opportunity to address the Israeli nation with words of encouragement: “I want to turn to the families of the captive soldiers, to IDF troops, to families sitting in bomb shelters and those who left their homes – we know why we are fighting." "I know we are experiencing frustration in the face of the pictures publicized around the world; we feel we aren’t understood sufficiently, but the whole world understands that Israel was attacked and the problem needs to be solved from its foundations," she concluded.

Ceasefire in itself not main goal
At the conclusion of the meeting, the two agreed that a ceasefire with Lebanon in itself was not their main goal. Livni’s office stated that the aim of the meeting was to discuss solutions for after the fighting ends, in the framework of UN resolution 1559. Rice asked Israel to contribute to solving the humanitarian crisis in Lebanon and to evacuating foreign nationals stranded in the war-torn country. Rice and Livni agreed to reconvene Tuesday for further discussions.
By Ronny Sofer
Rice finally sets out in search of ceasefire formula Guardian Unlimited
US pledges humanitarian aid for Lebanon ABC Online
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UN launches Lebanese aid appeal BBC News
The UN has launched a $150m (£81m) aid appeal for strife-torn Lebanon and the US has announced its own $30m package to ease the suffering of civilians.The UN's top humanitarian official, Jan Egeland, said the money was needed to help feed and shelter about 800,000 civilians caught up in the conflict. The moves came as US Secretary of State Condoleezza Rice flew to Lebanon and Israel to discuss the regional crisis. Some 380 Lebanese and up to 40 Israelis have died in 13 days of conflict. The Israeli offensive began after Hezbollah captured two Israeli soldiers in a cross-border raid on 12 July. In fresh violence on Monday:

• Israeli forces pushed north from the captured village of Maroun al-Ras in south Lebanon and fierce clashes were reported around Bint Jbeil. Two Israeli soldiers were killed and more than 10 were injured in the border fighting
• An Israeli helicopter crashed in northern Israel, killing two pilots. An army spokeswoman blamed technical problems, but Hezbollah reportedly claimed it had been shot down
• More Hezbollah rockets struck Haifa and other northern Israeli towns, wounding at least four people, Israel said.

'Awful thing'
Jan Egeland made the UN appeal during a visit to Beirut. He said the money was needed to help aid organisations cover needs of displaced people for three months.About $24m was on behalf on Unicef for children who have been displaced inside Lebanon or who have fled to Syria. Mr Egeland said he was asking the Israelis for safe passage for aid ships to enter the northern port of Tripoli and the southern port of Tyre. US President George W Bush on Monday ordered helicopters and ships to Lebanon to provide humanitarian aid.White House spokesman Tony Snow said that supplies would start arriving on Tuesday. "It is a move that is designed in recognition of the fact that innocent men, women and children are being hurt," he said. "And that is an awful thing." Mr Snow said the US was also working with Israeli and Lebanese officials to open up humanitarian corridors in Lebanon. The EU has already pledged $12.6m in aid while on Monday the UK increased its pledge to £5m.

Pre-conditions
Amid the aid moves, the diplomatic effort was also being stepped up. Ms Rice flew to Beirut on an unannounced trip which her officials said was to show support for Lebanon's government. She met Prime Minister Fouad Siniora and said she was "deeply concerned about the Lebanese people and what they are enduring".

• Mid-East crisis map
• Press focus on Rice
• Leaders' quotes

But she also said there was no place for "terrorist groups" like Hezbollah to attack from Lebanese territory. Ms Rice also met Shia parliament speaker Nabih Berri, who is said to have lines of communication with Syria and Hezbollah. According to Lebanese government sources, Ms Rice made the release of the two Israeli soldiers and the withdrawal of Hezbollah forces from the border the pre-conditions for any ceasefire. She has flown on to Israel for talks with Prime Minister Ehud Olmert and other officials. On Monday night Mr Rice met Israeli Foreign Minister Tzipi Livni, who said that Hezbollah wanted to set the region in flames. UN Secretary General Kofi Annan said on Monday it was important that talks in Rome on Wednesday of Western and Middle Eastern ministerial powers succeeded.

Rice Seeks 'Durable Solution' to Mideast Conflict

By Scott Wilson, Robin Wright and Fred Barbash

JERUSALEM, July 25 -- As Hezbollah rockets fell on the Israeli city of Haifa Tuesday, U.S. Secretary of State Condoleezza Rice completed her talks with Israeli and Palestinian officials, rebuffing Palestinian calls for an immediate cease-fire in the Lebanese conflict and insisting instead on a...

To view the entire article, go to http://www.washingtonpost.com/wp-dyn/conte...er=emailarticle

It’s Time for a New Middle East, Rice Says BET
Secretary of State Condoleezza Rice met with Israeli Prime Minister Euhud Olmert Tuesday morning saying that any plans for a cease fire must include provisions for long-term peace. “It is time for a new Middle East. t is time to say to those who do not want a different kind of Middle East that we will prevail, they will not,” Rice said at news conference in Israel. As Israeli ground forces make tactical strikes into Lebanon against Hezbollah targets, Rice continues to resist Arab calls for an immediate ceasefire, ABC News reported. "We of course urgently want also to end the violence so that innocent people can return to a free life," Rice said. "We need to do that, of course, in a way that is enduring." Rice said in order to do that, a strong peacekeeping force will need to be in place. But until that can be done, she said the U.S. refuses to stand in Israel's way, ABC News reported. "We will not hesitate to take the most severe measures against those who are aiming thousands of rockets and missiles against innocent civilians for one purpose – to kill them," Olmert said at a news conference Tuesday morning. Senior Israeli officials said that military operation is going more slowly than they expected and they expect to step up operations in the next couple of days, the Associated Press reported. One of the goals is to take more Hezbollah hostages so they have bargaining room in future negotiations with Israel.

The Little Victims
Meanwhile, the fighting is taking its toll on both sides of the border. To help ease some of the pain, the United States is rushing $30 million in emergency aid to the Middle East. But there are some victims, suffering in untold numbers, which are caught up in the crossfire and have absolutely nothing to do with the ongoing fight -- the children born in it. Children make up one-third of the population in Lebanon. Many children have had to find comfort playing in bomb shelters under daily threats by Hezbollah missiles. In south Beirut, the parking garage of a mall was turned in a makeshift playground as well as home to thousands of people, AP reported. Children on both sides of the border have expressed their frustration with the ongoing fighting through drawings, videos, in which one Israeli girl posted a video on You Tube to show people what her life is like everyday, and questions. "Why America is giving Israel Army the bombs to kill us," one child in Beirut asked an ABC News reporter. The way they see it, Israel and America are trying to kill them, ABC News reported. "I don't want us to die," a 10-year-old girl in Beirut said. There are more than 600,000 people that are displaced. Half of them are children.
Israel Targets Hezbollah, Bombs Beirut ABC News
Israelis seal off Hezbollah stronghold China Daily
Monsters and Critics.com - RadioFreeEurope/RadioLiberty - Globe and Mail - [url=http://blogs.usatoday.com/ondeadline/2006/07/mideast_crisis__2.html]USA Today - all 3,259 related »

Lebanon: UN launches $149 million three-month emergency appeal UN News Centre
The United Nations today launched a $149 million humanitarian appeal for Lebanon covering the next three months and focusing on food, health care, logistics, water and sanitation, protection and common services for an estimated 800,000 people affected by the worsening conflict. “The aid community can help save lives in this region,” said Jan Egeland, UN Under-Secretary-General for Humanitarian Affairs and Emergency Relief Coordinator, who is seeing the situation first-hand in Lebanon before travelling on later today to Israel and the occupied Palestinian territories. “More supplies are on their way – but we need safe access so that we can get the aid to those who need it most,” he stressed, echoing earlier calls that humanitarian workers and supplies be allowed for those most in need in the conflict. Two weeks of fighting between the Israeli Defence Force (IDF) and Lebanese group Hezbollah have killed over 350 people and wounded more than 1,500 inside Lebanon, while in Israel over 34 people have been killed and 200 wounded, the Office for the Coordination of Humanitarian Affairs (OCHA) said today. Approximately 800,000 people have been affected by the conflict, some of these are internally displaced, and the humanitarian situation is particularly acute in the south of Lebanon, OCHA added, a point highlighted by Margareta Wahlström, Assistant Secretary-General for Humanitarian Affairs and Deputy Emergency Coordinator, speaking about the appeal in New York. Ms. Wahlström said the appeal would be revised if needed because estimates of the amount of aid required were difficult to make because of the access problems. She criticized all sides in the conflict for violating humanitarian law by not doing more to prevent civilian casualties. “The extremely vulnerable situation of the civilian population I think is very evident to all of us. It’s clear that all parties to this conflict are in violation of international humanitarian law by not taking due care to prevent the civilians from being injured and being caught in the middle of this conflict.” The UN Children’s Fund (UNICEF) said it was asking for almost $24 million out of the total appeal to provide rapid support for displaced or refugee children and families who are in urgent need of medical care and other essentials. “Many of those who have been uprooted in the violence are children,” said Ann Veneman, UNICEF Executive Director. “They may have witnessed the death or injury of loved ones and many are suffering acute distress. “Children face the immediate danger of disease and will be impacted by the loss of hospitals, health clinics and schools.” UNICEF has already provided $1.2 million for medical supplies and other immediate assistance, with the first charter flight leaving for the region last Saturday with 38 tonnes of supplies. For its part, the UN refugee agency has asked for almost $19 million for its work aimed at helping 150,000 vulnerable displaced people in Lebanon and neighbouring countries. “The plight of the displaced in Lebanon is growing more difficult by the hour and it’s crucial that we get the humanitarian pipeline flowing now,” said UN High Commissioner for Refugees (UNHCR) António Guterres. “UNHCR is trucking some 40 trailers loaded with over 500 tonnes of aid supplies from our regional warehouse in Jordan to Syria. It’s frustrating that we can’t deliver this aid, particularly when there are thousands of uprooted civilians just a few hours away in Lebanon who desperately need it.” In addition to pre-positioning tonnes of relief supplies, UNHCR has sent a 19-member emergency response team comprising humanitarian specialists who will augment the agency’s staff in Syria and Lebanon. The World Health Organization (WHO), which is coordinating the UN’s health action in this crisis in collaboration with Lebanon’s Ministry of Health, is appealing for $32.4 million. “As more people are displaced and as more infrastructure is destroyed, the health needs will grow. International concern for the people caught in this conflict is high. Funding from the international community for health will save lives and reduce suffering,” said Dr Ala’ Din Alwan, the WHO Director-General’s Representative for Health Action in Crises. WHO, whose partners include UNICEF, the UN Population Fund (UNFPA) and the UN Relief and Works Agency for Palestine Refugees in the Near East (UNRWA), said that among other things the funds will help increase support for the health ministry in coordinating the humanitarian response, setting up mobile health care units and putting in place urgent immunization campaigns for internally displaced persons (IDPs). “Urgent action is needed to protect the health and well-being of women, children and other innocent civilians,” said UNFPA Executive Director Thoraya Ahmed Obaid, whose Agency has asked for just over $6 million. “The widespread destruction of public infrastructure and services is dangerous for everyone, but especially for pregnant women, the injured and others who may need medical care to survive.”

So if I post and endless stream of articles it is not spam? this could get very interesting.

I will have to think about this challenge.

Israel suggests NATO as peacekeeping force MSNBC
Leaders diverge from U.N. force that has failed to bring peace in regionAs world leaders scramble to secure a cease-fire in Lebanon, a crucial question arises: Who will ensure the peace? Israel has suggested it prefers a NATO-led coalition — not the traditional U.N. peacekeeping force that has tried but failed to bring peace to Lebanon the last three decades. But the alliance’s member states are already stretched in missions elsewhere, including full-scale combat in Afghanistan. Precedents in Kosovo and Bosnia also raise questions about the ability of a NATO-led force to impose its will. And cobbling together a coalition would be difficult, especially considering the traumatic history of peacekeeping in Lebanon: American and French troops stepped into a bloody quagmire when they joined a multinational force there in 1982. There are also competing initiatives, including a proposal Tuesday by European Union security and foreign affairs chief Javier Solana for a new kind of international force that would include troops from Europe, Turkey and Arab states. NATO officials insist it’s premature to discuss a NATO role — an idea first aired by Israeli Defense Minister Amir Peretz on Saturday and which Washington has indicated it would support — until the current round of diplomacy runs its course. “No request has been made to NATO,” alliance spokesman James Appathurai said Tuesday. “The international community is still discussing ... the possibility of a force, its mandate, and the duration of the mission. All these issues remain open.”

Turkey may have major role
Still, momentum is building to end the fighting, and there is broad sympathy for Israel’s demand that Hezbollah not be allowed to return to its border. But few believe the weak Lebanese government can achieve this as Israel demands, and the U.N. force that has been in Lebanon since 1978 is discredited. That leaves many turning to NATO. One NATO country that may have troops available for a mission in Lebanon is Turkey. As the only Muslim member of the alliance, Turkey might have considerable clout if it were persuaded to lead a multinational force — helping to deflect the perception that troops are being sent in solely to defend Israel’s interests against Hezbollah.

http://www.wane.com/Global/story.asp?S=5193508&nav=0RYb
Saudis issue warning

RIYADH, Saudi Arabia Saudi Arabia's King Abdullah is issuing an appeal to the world to stop Israeli attacks on Lebanon.

In a statement read on television, Abdullah said the Mideast could be plunged into war if peace efforts fail.

A royal court statement says the king has pledged one and a-half ( billion dollars to Lebanon -- half-a-( billion for the country's reconstruction and the remainder for Lebanon's central bank to support the economy.

While Abdullah calls the Israeli military "brutal," Hezbollah also has not been spared Arab criticism. Saudi Arabia, Egypt, Jordan and Kuwait have rebuked Hezbollah for the fighting in Lebanon.

Copyright 2006 Associated Press. All rights reserved. This material may not be published, broadcast, rewritten, or redistributed.

US supports lasting but not urgent ceasefire: Rice Xinhua
US Secretary of State Condoleezza Rice, who is on a visit to the Palestinian territories, said on Tuesday that the US administration supports a lasting ceasefire in the Middle East but not an urgent one. Rice made the remarks during a brief joint news conference with Palestinian President Mahmoud Abbas after nearly two-hour meeting at Abbas' office in the West Bank city of Ramallah. She urged all parties concerned to find a suitable way to a ceasefire to end the security deterioration in the region, but she underscored that the ceasefire must be reached in a way that secures the sovereignty of Lebanon and implementation of the UN Resolution 1959. She also voiced concerns over what is happening on Palestine, Lebanon and Israel, saying that "the Palestinian people and civilians of Lebanon and Israel are innocent." Rice said that the U.S. and the Palestinian National Authority(PNA) had a joint vision to create two states for the Israelis and the Palestinians. Rice arrived in Ramallah on Tuesday after she wrapped up her visits in Lebanon and Israel. For his part, Abbas promised to exert efforts to secure the release of the captive Israeli soldier, who has been held hostage by Palestinian militants since June 25. However, he reminded Israel and the world to consider the suffering of 10,000 Palestinian families which have sons jailed in Israel. Israel has launched a large-scale offensive into the Gaza Strip in the wake of the capture of Israeli soldier Gilad Shalit by three Palestinian militant groups on June 25 in a cross-border raid against an Israeli army base southeast of the Gaza-Israel border. The militant groups conditioned the return of the captive soldier on the release of Palestinian junior and women prisoners jailed in Israel, which was rejected by the Israeli government. Not long after the seizure of Israeli soldier by the Palestinian militant groups, Lebanese Shiite group Hezbollah also captured two Israeli soldiers in a cross-border raid on July 12. Lebanon has been targeted by Israeli military offensive since then. Enditem
Israel Wants Lebanon Buffer Zone, Peacekeepers NPR
Rice to Lebanon: Just Give Israel More Time Washington Post
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DEBKAfile: Middle East war rhetoric escalates sharply with Rice’s exit from region

July 25, 2006, 8:57 PM (GMT+02:00)


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DEBKAfile: Middle East war rhetoric escalates sharply with Rice’s exit from region

July 25, 2006, 8:57 PM (GMT+02:00)

Not surprisingly, the most extreme statement came from Iran: A Middle East storm is brewing and will strike violently, said the radical Iranian president Mahmoud Ahmadinejad. “The use of force in Lebanon could trigger a hurricane.”

He spoke after Riyadh released an official statement from King Abdullah asserting: “If the peace option fails because of Israeli arrogance, there will be no option but a war in the region.” The Saudi king was uncharacteristically unrestrained in his speech after seeing the US secretary come and go without allaying the Lebanese crisis.

At around the same time as the statement from Riyadh, huge explosions struck Hizballah targets in South Beirut for the first time since US Secretary of State Condoleezza Rice landed in the Middle East for talks in Beirut, Jerusalem and Ramallah. Israeli positions along the Lebanese border also came under heavy Hizballah mortar fire on Tuesday afternoon, coinciding with an Israeli air bombardment of Hizballah rocket sites in Tyre. The IDF began closing some strategic roads to the Lebanese border to civilian traffic.

Hopes had been entertained In Cairo and Riyadh that the visiting US secretary would voice some sort of reproof for Israel’s extensive military action in Lebanon and apply the brakes in her private talks with Ehud Olmert. Instead, no sooner had she departed when Israeli defense minister Amir Peretz announced that Israel is clearing a security zone in South Lebanon that will remain under IDF fire control unless a multinational force assumes responsibility.

Given the enormous, time-consuming difficulties facing the assembly of such a force, his statement was taken as the first avowal of Israel’s intentions beyond the military operation. The term “security zone” was uttered for the first time since the Hizballah attack of July 12 sparked the current crisis.

Privately, the pro-Western rulers in Riyadh, Cairo and Amman were cheering Israel’s offensive in the hope of its crippling the extremist Shiite Hizballah and dealing Tehran its comeuppance. But Peretz’s statement gave Arab rulers the pretext for ignoring the fact that Israel was defending itself against attack and reviving their age-old accusations of Israeli ambitions to seize Arab lands with American support.

It was rumored in Cairo that Egyptian president Hosni Mubarak plans to visit Syrian president Bashar Asad in Damascus this week to discuss the Lebanese crisis.
Copyright 2000-2006 DEBKAfile. All Rights Reserved.


Not surprisingly, the most extreme statement came from Iran: A Middle East storm is brewing and will strike violently, said the radical Iranian president Mahmoud Ahmadinejad. “The use of force in Lebanon could trigger a hurricane.”

He spoke after Riyadh released an official statement from King Abdullah asserting: “If the peace option fails because of Israeli arrogance, there will be no option but a war in the region.” The Saudi king was uncharacteristically unrestrained in his speech after seeing the US secretary come and go without allaying the Lebanese crisis.

At around the same time as the statement from Riyadh, huge explosions struck Hizballah targets in South Beirut for the first time since US Secretary of State Condoleezza Rice landed in the Middle East for talks in Beirut, Jerusalem and Ramallah. Israeli positions along the Lebanese border also came under heavy Hizballah mortar fire on Tuesday afternoon, coinciding with an Israeli air bombardment of Hizballah rocket sites in Tyre. The IDF began closing some strategic roads to the Lebanese border to civilian traffic.

Hopes had been entertained In Cairo and Riyadh that the visiting US secretary would voice some sort of reproof for Israel’s extensive military action in Lebanon and apply the brakes in her private talks with Ehud Olmert. Instead, no sooner had she departed when Israeli defense minister Amir Peretz announced that Israel is clearing a security zone in South Lebanon that will remain under IDF fire control unless a multinational force assumes responsibility.

Given the enormous, time-consuming difficulties facing the assembly of such a force, his statement was taken as the first avowal of Israel’s intentions beyond the military operation. The term “security zone” was uttered for the first time since the Hizballah attack of July 12 sparked the current crisis.

Privately, the pro-Western rulers in Riyadh, Cairo and Amman were cheering Israel’s offensive in the hope of its crippling the extremist Shiite Hizballah and dealing Tehran its comeuppance. But Peretz’s statement gave Arab rulers the pretext for ignoring the fact that Israel was defending itself against attack and reviving their age-old accusations of Israeli ambitions to seize Arab lands with American support.

It was rumored in Cairo that Egyptian president Hosni Mubarak plans to visit Syrian president Bashar Asad in Damascus this week to discuss the Lebanese crisis.

Copyright 2000-2006 DEBKAfile. All Rights Reserved.

http://www.debka.com/article.php?aid=1188
Washington Expected an IDF Grand Slam to Dispose of Hizballah

DEBKAfile Special Report

July 23, 2006, 6:22 PM (GMT+02:00)


US officials are not yet saying so out loud, but in private and “on condition of anonymity,” White House circles are signaling disappointment.

It arises from the expectation that the Israeli Defense Forces, the most effective Middle East army, would dispose of Hassan Nasrallah and his Hizballah in a few days, presenting the Bush administration and Sunni Muslim Arab rulers with a dearly hoped-for smash victory against Islamic fundamentalist terrorists. Now, after 12 days of Israeli air, sea and ground assaults, it is beginning to look as though it will take a long, sustained effort to break Hizballah.

Therefore, US secretary of state Condoleezza Rice is coming to the Middle East Monday, July 24, brandishing a whip in the form of an implied deadline. She will assess the situation at close hand, talk to allies in Rome Wednesday and go back to Washington after setting a date to return in the week beginning July 30.

A really quick, crushing victory over the Hizballah could be achieved by the landing of American forces in northern Lebanon – at the invitation of the Beirut government. Nasrallah’s forces could then be strangled between US forces and the Israeli army coming up from the south.

But this is not on the cards for the simple reason that America is willing to fight in Lebanon to the last Israeli soldier, just as Iran is ready to fight to the last Hizballah combatant. Israel must beware of being hustled into taking imprudent steps by the proxy contest between the Washington and Tehran. Israel and its armed forces must pursue their own national agenda which is to cripple the Hizballah and inflict a defeat on Tehran, both of whom are sworn to destroy the Jewish state. It is necessary for Israeli commanders to proceed cautiously and set a pace that is commensurate with their military capabilities. Their best fighting men must not be place needlessly in harm’s way and Lebanese civilian casualties have to be avoided as far as possible in a situation in which Hizballah stores its men and weapons in domestic cellars, kitchens and banana groves. Above all, Israel must beware of being drawn into tailoring its arduous and dangerous campaign to the pressures of Washington’s disappointment. After four years in Iraq, US forces know the score and understand the challenges besetting Israel.

On Day Twelve of the war, Israel faces two major tactical difficulties:

1. The enemy the IDF is pursuing is not a regular army which moves divisions around, but a small militia of 4,000 hardened, highly trained jihadist guerrillas, who have reduced their offensive against Israel to two simple tactics: shooting rockets at population centers and lying in wait for a chance to take Israeli troops unawares.

It therefore behooves Israeli forces, which Saturday, July 22, launched a large-scale offensive to sanitize South Lebanon, to beat Hizballah at the game of catching the opposition unawares. There is no doubt that the Israeli army is badly in need of a success – and not only to impress the Americans. Israel’s home front, though solidly behind its servicemen, needs to be assured that the war is on course and will be fought “until the job is finished.” This is the mantra heard up and down Israel, most insistently from the one-third of the population taking the punishment of lives lost or disrupted and homes destroyed by daily rocket attacks, with very little complaint.

This assurance is beginning to wear thin as the Hizballah rocket blitz intensifies day by day. Saturday, they shot a record 160 rockets at dozens of towns and communities. Sunday, July 23, the ball bearings packed in the Katyusha warheads punched hundreds of holes in a car and a workshop, killing two men on the spot. Sirens were heard for the first time in Binyamina, Zichron Yaacov and Kfar Ada, 70 km from the Lebanese border and the deepest south yet. The buildings of Israel’s third largest city, Haifa, and many other towns of northern Israel, are severely battered and bear the scars of blasts which scatter the metal balls designed to maximize human injuries.

The week’s grace that Rice appears to be granting the Israeli government and armed forces for bringing the war to a successful conclusion is also a boon for Tehran, Syria and Hizballlah. It gives them time to engineer a nasty surprise to greet the US secretary’s second visit, hitting Israel at the very moment that the diplomats weigh in to start the process for ending hostilities. Israel will then be told to hold back on reprisals. This dead-end maneuver will be painfully familiar to the many peacemakers who tried their luck with the Palestinians, notably Condoleezza Rice’s predecessor, Colon Powell.

While Syrian officials angle for direct talks with the United States and call for a ceasefire, Damascus is preparing to step into the war. Damascus is preparing to step into the war. Syrian information minister Mohsein Bilal warned Sunday, July 23, that Syria will join the conflict if Israeli ground forces in Lebanon approach the Syrian border. But Bashar Assad also prefers to hide behind the back of a proxy. The ruling Syrian Baath suddenly “discovered” Sunday a new organization called the “Front for the Liberation of Golan,” claiming it launched its first attack last Thursday, July 20, on an Israeli army post. It was said to have killed 8 Israeli soldiers and taken two hostages to be held in Syria against the release of Golan Druzes in Israeli jails. The tale is made of whole cloth, but it is a straw that shows which way the wind is blowing in Damascus.

Neither Damascus nor Tehran – and certainly not the Hizballah - have any intention of leaving the diplomatic initiative in the hands of the US secretary of state. They will do their utmost to stay one step ahead of any American-led steps and keep Israeli forces from running away with a victory. The way events are going now, both the Americans and Israelis will soon be confronted with the necessity to cut both Syria and Iran down to size.

Diary: Rice's Mid-East mission BBC News
US Secretary of State Condoleezza Rice is on a mission to the Middle East to seek a "lasting solution" to the crisis between Israel and Lebanon. She is meeting regional leaders in Beirut and Jerusalem before heading to Rome later in the week. Our correspondent is following her trip.

25 JULY: IMAGE PROBLEM
We're getting a clearer sense of Condeleeza Rice's long-term objectives in the crisis. Before she left Washington she likened the violence to "the birth pangs of a new Middle East". Perhaps an unfortunate choice of words given the suffering. But today, meeting Israeli Prime Minister Ehud Olmert, she once again talked of creating a "new Middle East".It's the reason why Washington is so reluctant to criticise Israel's military operations. The Bush administration see the Israeli offensive on Hezbollah in the context of its two main foreign policy goals - winning the war on terror and spreading democracy. Others would argue that fighting a war on terror only recruits more terrorists and spreads resentment rather than encouraging democracy to flourish. But this argument does not seem to "compute" with the US administration. Condeleezza Rice no doubt has a very difficult task trying to resolve this crisis. But there's a woman travelling with her who - some would argue - has an even tougher assigment. Karen Hughes is the US Under Secretary of State for Public Diplomacy. It's probably the world's most challenging PR job. If Karl Rove is Bush's brain - Karen Hughes is his heart. She was the one who helped the president reach out to all those "soccer moms" in his political rise from Texas. It's hard to say that she's made much of an impact yet - opinion polls around the world suggest that America still has a huge image problem. It's also difficult to see her precise role here. She is of course totally eclipsed by the presence of Condi Rice. We're now off to Ramallah with Rice. She wants to give her support to the embattled Palestinian President Mahhmood Abbas. Not sure if it will help him in his current difficulties though.

24 JULY: INDELIBLE STAINS
My colleagues who were travelling with Condi Rice in Beirut have just arrived at our hotel in Jerusalem. I'm naturally jealous, though - they all bear indelible stains of helicopter hydraulic oil on their light coloured summer clothes. Apparently it sprayed over everyone - including the secretary of state - as they were on their way back to Cyprus. Colleagues who have threadbare, dated clothes are annoyed. Imagine how she feels with her thousand-dollar suits. The state department seems to have been sparing with details on the surprise Lebanon visit. There was no press conference with Condi - no interviews - basically no information from the meetings that she had - other than to deny what everyone else seems to be reporting that some of them went badly. In fact there's a lock-down mentality. No press conference with Lebanon's prime minister, no media availability with Israel's foreign minister other than a few bland opening remarks and no opportunity to question Rice after she meets Israeli Prime Minister Ehud Olmert. The more difficult the mission - the less they want to talk. We're hoping for someone to brief tonight - it could be a long wait.

24 JULY: AIMS AND OBJECTIVES
This is not quite the trip Condoleezza Rice had been planning. Before the crisis in Lebanon she had been due this week to visit Japan, China, South Korea, Malaysia and Vietnam. All those stops - bar Malaysia - have now been cancelled. The focus of that visit would have been North Korea and its long-range missiles. So Condi has now just had to switch from one crisis to another. Madeleine Albright - the former Secretary of State - calls it the "perfect storm" of foreign policy: dark clouds closing in on Washington from every direction. But I met an American friend at the airport who did not view it in such cataclysmic terms. In fact he thought the crisis in Lebanon was playing out quite well for President George W Bush. This friend is a lawyer, not a journalist, so he is probably less influenced by what the media say. He thought the violence provided an opportunity to reshape the Middle East - very much in line with the administration's viewpoint, in fact. And I can't help wondering whether this war will actually help Mr Bush and the Republican party come the mid-term elections. It certainly takes Iraq off the front pages - and reminds voters that it's not just America fighting the "war on terror". But it's still too soon to judge its political effects.

Convoy
I've travelled ahead of Ms Rice to Jerusalem and will join her "bubble" when she arrives. I can't say I miss the food on Air Force Two, or being stuffed in cramped conditions in her plane alongside my fellow reporters. But then there is the access. She normally comes to the back of the plane to talk and answer a few questions. Once she even appeared from her cabin to sing "Happy Birthday" to a colleague. But in truth what I miss most is avoiding the queues at immigration and speeding through the streets in her convoy with a police escort. There can be few better ways of getting to your destination quickly.
By Jonathan Beale, BBC News State Department correspondent

http://www.cdi.org/program/document.cfm?Do...ge=../index.cfm
July 19, 2006

Israel’s Missile Defense Systems: MIA

Despite being inundated with volleys from Hezbollah – at writing, estimates range from 700 to 1,500 missiles and rockets launched at Israel in the past week – Israel’s two missile defense systems have been silent. Neither its Arrow system (co-developed with the United States) nor its version of the Patriot has been used in this conflict, largely because they are not designed to handle the kind of threat that Hezbollah represents. Hezbollah is shooting projectiles that have ranges mostly around 10 miles, while the missile defense systems are geared toward shooting down missiles that range from a couple hundred to roughly 1,000 miles.

Israel has a two-tiered missile defense system. The first, the Arrow Weapon System, is to intercept ballistic missiles in their final phase of flight. It would do so by shooting the U.S.-developed Arrow II interceptor at a threat. Once the Israel-developed Green Pine Fire Control Radar, Citron Tree Fire Control Center, and Hazel Nut Tree Launcher Center have sent the interceptor near the target, the Arrow II would blow up, with the hope that the fragments from the blast would either destroy the target or knock it sufficiently off course so that it would no longer remain a threat. There are two Arrow batteries deployed. One covers the center of Israel from its position in Palmahim, while the other in Ein Shemer is supposed to defend Israel’s northern territory. The Arrow systems do not move around very quickly and it is uncertain how much defense the two Arrow batteries would be able to provide to the southern part of the country.

Israel also has an early version of the U.S. Patriot missile defense system. The Patriot Advanced Capability (PAC)-2 is designed to defend against ballistic missile targets in their terminal phase as well; also, it would provide defense via a blast-fragmentation warhead (as opposed to the United States’ more advanced version, the PAC-3, which uses kinetic energy from a direct hit to provide a defense). The Patriot differs from the Arrow in that it aims at targets which are at lower altitudes.

The main reason why neither missile defense system has been used is because they are not designed to intercept short-range rockets. It is estimated that of the 13,000 or so rockets and missiles in Hezbollah’s arsenal, 11,000 of them are of the Katyusha type. These rockets have a short range – maybe up to nine miles or so – and a small warhead of roughly 40 pounds. Based on vintage Soviet technology, these rockets can be rolled out of a hiding place, shot, and rolled back in before any detection can be made. Their flight is over in seconds, making tracking difficult, much less shooting anything down. A system would have to be in exactly the right place to detect the missile once it is launched, then the defensive system would have to make a nearly instantaneous decision to respond, after which the interceptor would have to get to the target quickly enough to destroy it. It is an exceedingly difficult proposition when the flight times are as short as those launched by Hezbollah.

Hezbollah is thought to have received help from Iran on its weapon arsenal. Indeed, it has surprised the Israelis with what look to Iranian-origin Fajr 3’s, which can take a 200-pound warhead up to 25 miles, and Fajr 5’s, which can send a 385-pound warhead up to 45 miles. There were reports that Israel destroyed a launcher for a Zelzal missile in Beirut, thought to range 65 to 120 miles.

The biggest jump in Hezbollah’s capabilities was revealed when it targeted and hit an Israeli warship with a radar-seeking cruise missile. This level of technical prowess had been heretofore unknown by Hezbollah. On July 14, two missiles were launched at Israel’s Hanit, which was stationed roughly 10 miles off the coast of Lebanon. The first missile (C-801/802 Chinese “Silkworm” cruise missile) apparently was deliberately sent high so that the ship would deploy its defenses, allowing a second low-flying cruise missile, probably a C-701 TV guided missile, to come in unnoticed and make a direct hit. One Israeli soldier was killed in the attack. Furthermore, the first missile locked onto an Egyptian vessel about 30 miles off the shore of Lebanon and hit it, apparently following its radar after it flew over the Hanit.

This attack is reminiscent of 2003’s Operation Iraqi Freedom, where the Iraqi military jury-rigged several old Chinese Silkworms to fly over land against unsuspecting U.S. military bases.

Both of these instances underline a very important distinction: the missile defenses Israel has deployed at present, and that the United States had fielded at the time, were designed to detect, track, and intercept ballistic missiles. Ballistic missiles fly very different trajectories than cruise missiles. The latter fly more erratically, are lower to the ground, and are overall more difficult to track. Cruise missiles bring an entirely different level of threat to the situation.

Also, the Patriot and the Arrow tracking systems tend to get overloaded when there are too many air-borne targets to follow. Given that Hezbollah is sending up volleys of missiles and rockets, and that the Israeli air force has sent many of its aircraft on bombing raids against Lebanese territory, this air picture is extremely complicated and challenging for any system to pick out appropriate air-borne targets.

Finally, despite Israel’s two-tiered missile defense system, it is missing the capability to defend against short-range missiles. According to Uzi Rubin, the founder of the Arrow, it is not optimized for threats with ranges below 125 miles or so. In May, the Israeli government awarded a contract to a Raytheon/Rafael team to provide a defense against missiles with ranges of 24 to 155 miles. This new short-range ballistic missile defense system, which would use a direct intercept to destroy its targets, is supposed to also defend against cruise missiles. However, it is still in the very early planning stages, with its development continuing through 2010. In the meantime, Israel can defend itself the old-fashioned way: through conventional attacks on ground targets thought to be associated with Hezbollah or diplomatic forays.

# # #



Author(s): Victoria Samson

Day-by-day: Lebanon crisis - week two BBC News
A day-by-day look at how the conflict involving Israel and Lebanon is unfolding in its second week.

Day-by-day: Week one

TUESDAY 25 JULY
US Secretary of State Condoleezza Rice continues her diplomatic tour of the region, meeting separately with Palestinian President Mahmoud Abbas and Israeli PM Ehud Olmert.Mr Abbas calls for an immediate truce but Mr Olmert says there will be no let-up in army operations. Ms Rice calls for peace across the region. Israel seals off Bint Jbeil, a Hezbollah stronghold in Lebanon and carries out heavy shelling. Hezbollah guerrillas continue to fire Katyusha rockets. In Israel a 15-year-old Arab-Israeli is killed in the northern village of Maghar and an elderly man dies of a heart attack as he tries to take shelter from rockets fired into Haifa. In Lebanon the coastal city of Tyre experiences further Israeli bombardment. Further north, seven members of one family, including two children, are killed in an overnight air strike in the town of Nabatiyeh.

• Israelis accused of 'human shields' tactic
• The travails of escaping Lebanon

MONDAY 24 JULY
US Secretary of State Condoleezza Rice arrives in the Middle East, making a surprise stop in Beirut for talks with Lebanon's Prime Minister Fouad Siniora.Ms Rice reportedly makes the release of the two Israeli soldiers and the withdrawal of Hezbollah forces from the border the pre-conditions for any ceasefire. She later moves on to Israel. The UN launches an appeal for $150m in aid and the US pledges a $30m aid package to begin on Tuesday. UK PM Tony Blair says the situation in Lebanon is "a catastrophe", while UN Secretary General Kofi Annan says international ministerial talks in Rome on Wednesday must not fail. Meanwhile, there is fierce fighting in southern Lebanon around Bint Jbeil. An Israeli helicopter crashes in northern Israel, with two pilots killed. Hezbollah claims it shot the helicopter down; Israel disputes this. Air strikes continue on both sides.

• Lebanese open homes for refugees

Desperate Lebanese try to leave Tyre

SUNDAY 23 JULY
Israeli strikes hit southern Beirut, the Bekaa valley, Tyre, and - for the first time - Sidon, a southern port city full of refugees from the surrounding countryside. There are no confirmed reports on the number of Lebanese casualties. A volley of Hezbollah rockets hits the northern Israeli city of Haifa, killing two people and injuring 15. The UN's emergency relief co-ordinator, Jan Egeland, is shocked by the ruins he finds as he tours southern districts of Beirut. He says the large scale of the destruction, and its indiscriminate nature, renders it a violation of humanitarian law. Israeli Defence Minister Amir Peretz says Israel would agree to the proposed deployment of a multi-national force in southern Lebanon and suggested it should be led by Nato. Envoys from France and Britain also hold talks in Israel to look for ways to resolve the crisis. US Secretary of State Condoleezza Rice is expected in the region.
The aftermath of bombing in a Beirut suburb

SATURDAY 22 JULY
The Israeli army continues ground incursions into southern Lebanon. It says it has gained control of the village of Maroun al-Ras after several days of fighting and warns civilians in 14 specific villages to leave. Troops continue to line up along Israel's northern border, but Israel says it is not planning a full-scale ground invasion. Humanitarian concerns mount as thousands of Lebanese try to flee southern Lebanon. The UN pushes for secure routes for civilians to escape and much-needed aid to be delivered. Israel targets Lebanese phone and television masts in air strikes, while Hezbollah fires dozens of rockets into Israel. The death toll rises to at least 350 Lebanese and 34 Israelis.

• Perilous escape for south Lebanese

Civilians flee southern Lebanon

FRIDAY 21 JULY
Israel masses soldiers and tanks on the Lebanese border, called up thousands of reserves, drops leaflets on parts of southern Lebanon urging residents to leave. It maintains its bombardment of the country, hitting more than 40 targets, mainly in southern Beirut. Lebanese Prime Minister Fouad Siniora says the offensive is now no longer against Hezbollah, but against Lebanon. The evacuation of foreign nationals continues, with thousands more expected to arrive in Cyprus.

• No refuge from bombs

Britons evacuated onboard HMS Bulwark

THURSDAY 20 JULY
UN Secretary-General Kofi Annan calls for a ceasefire and stresses the need to let aid into the region. Israeli Prime Minister Ehud Olmert agrees to allow aid into Lebanon. Heavy fighting erupts between Israeli troops and Hezbollah militants inside Lebanon's border. Two Israeli soldiers and a number of Hezbollah fighters are killed, according to the Israeli army. Israel continues its bombing of Lebanon, carrying out 80 air strikes. Hezbollah's leader Hassan Nasrallah appears on television, saying Israel has not dented its capabilities. The Israeli army says that Hezbollah has fired 30 rockets into northern Israel during the day, but they do not cause any casualties. The death toll reaches at least 306 people in Lebanon and 31 in Israel. Evacuations continue, with many nations sending both military ships and chartered vessels to remove their citizens from danger. Forty US marines come ashore to help around 1,000 US citizens in Lebanon - the first presence of US troops in the country since Hezbollah militants blew up a marine barracks in Beirut in 1983, killing 241 personnel. But Cyprus, which is taking many of the evacuees, says it cannot cope with the influx and appeals to the European Commission for additional planes to fly people to their home countries.

• Stranded in the war zone
• Divided loyalties of Lebanon
• Q&A: Mid-East war crimes?Annan calls for ceasefire
  
  WEDNESDAY 19 JULY
  As Israeli forces bomb Lebanon for an eighth day, Lebanese Prime Minister Fouad Siniora appeals for an immediate end to the Israeli attacks on his country, saying more than 300 people had been killed by the Israeli air raids so far, with 1,000 wounded and 500,000 displaced. Meanwhile, Israeli strikes hit Hezbollah positions in Beirut, as well as targets in southern and eastern parts of the country. The military says its aircraft dropped 23 tonnes of explosives in an evening raid on a bunker in south Beirut where senior Hezbollah leaders, possibly including Sheikh Hassan Nasrallah, were hiding. But Hezbollah denies any of its "leaders or personnel" were killed and says the Israeli raid hit a mosque under construction rather than a bunker. More than 60 civilians are killed in raids - 12 in the southern village of Srifa, near Tyre, six in the southern town of Nabatiyeh, and many more elsewhere in the south as well as Baalbek in the east. Israeli troops cross into southern Lebanon to carry out what the army called "restricted pinpoint attacks". Two Israeli soldiers die in clashes with Hezbollah fighters inside Lebanon. Rockets fired from Lebanon strike the northern Israeli city of Haifa, and kill two children in the Israeli Arab city of Nazareth. They are the first Arab Israelis to die in the rocket attacks. Thousands of people continue to flee Lebanon. A British warship arrives in Cyprus, carrying the first 180 UK citizens. A Norwegian ferry takes hundreds of Norwegians, Swedes and Americans to Cyprus, while a US-chartered ship docks in Beirut to evacuate US and Australian citizens. After meeting Israeli Foreign Minister Tzipi Livni, the EU's foreign policy chief, Javier Solana, says he has seen the suffering of Lebanese civilians and it is nothing to do with the battle against Hezbollah - it was "disproportionate". But Ms Livni says the Israeli military response is proportionate to the threat posed by Hezbollah to the entire region.[list]
• Fleeing in the line of fire
• Tolerant Haifa tested
• UK evacuation plan

Devastation in Tyre

Air strikes kills 7 civilians :

Israeli troops sealed off a Hezbollah stronghold and warplanes killed six people in a market city in southern Lebanon on Tuesday, while Beirut was pounded by new air strikes. Guerrillas fired rockets at northern Israel, killing a girl
http://tinyurl.com/mkxxb


Two IDF soldiers killed in battle for Bint Jbail :

An Israel ":Defense Forces" officer and a soldier were killed and 14 soldiers were wounded, two of them seriously, in a battle yesterday with Hezbollah in the town of Bint Jbail, in the central sector in South Lebanon.
http://www.haaretz.com/hasen/spages/742250.html


Israel used cluster grenades on civilians:

A US-based human rights group has accused Israel of using artillery-fired cluster grenades against a Lebanese village last week during its assault against Hezbollah.
http://tinyurl.com/oydmp


Full HRW Report: Israeli Cluster Munitions Hit Civilians in Lebanon -

Israel Must Not Use Indiscriminate Weapons
http://hrw.org/english/docs/2006/07/24/isrlpa13798.htm


MK Bishara: IDF attacks 'like a nuclear bomb on Lebanon':

Knesset member Azmi Bishara (Balad) has accused Israel of such massive use of force in the conflict with Hizbullah that "it's like a nuclear bomb falling on Lebanon - the whole country is destroyed."
http://tinyurl.com/myp6v


Latest Pictures From Lebanon

- - WARNING -

Graphic images depicting the reality and horror of Israel's Invasion and destruction of Lebanon.
http://www.informationclearinghouse.info/article14186.htm


US keen on giving Israel time in Lebanon:

According to a well-worn script that Israel has grown accustomed to over the years, the arrival of the US secretary of state during wartime means an end to Israeli military advances. But this time the script is different.
http://tinyurl.com/q5kke


Israel occupy portion of Lebanon :

Israel says it will keep control over an area in southern Lebanon until an international force can be deployed.
http://news.bbc.co.uk/2/hi/middle_east/5214046.stm


Hezbollah proves its mettle:

Hezbollah’s war with Israel, so far, has been a rare military accomplishment in the history of the Middle East conflict, analysts say. But they doubt whether the Islamist militia can endure sustained and intensive warfare.
http://tinyurl.com/rmm59


U.S. plan for Lebanon likely to fail, Arab analysts:

"I think it's preposterous. From the beginning this is a plan that cannot be achieved," former Egyptian foreign minister Ahmed Maher told Reuters.
http://www.alertnet.org/thenews/newsdesk/L24687078.htm


Military Intelligence Chief: Syrian army now at its highest state of alert :

Yadlin emphasized that "neither Syria nor Israel are interested in a military clash but the situation is explosive and the events may potentially be incorrectly interpreted. This could entangle Syria up in a battle against us."
http://www.haaretz.com/hasen/spages/742628.html


Saudi king warns of Middle East war:

In a statement read out on state television on Tuesday, King Abdullah said, "If the option of peace fails as a result of Israeli arrogance, then the only option remaining will be war, and God alone knows what the region would witness in a conflict that would spare no one."
http://tinyurl.com/qe9fl


U.S. Turns to Arab Dictators to Contain Hezbollah:

The United States is using authoritarian Arab leaders, who fear that Iran could export its revolutionary political model to their disgruntled populations and are concerned about Washington's reprisal against them a la Saddam Hussein in Iraq
http://www.informationclearinghouse.info/article14185.htm


Hamas PM slams Rice's 'new Middle East' concept :

Palestinian Prime Minister Ismail Haniya said the US view of a new Middle East was one that began with "destroying Lebanon" and with killing the maximum number of Palestinians.
http://www.informationclearinghouse.info/article14183.htm


Seven Palestinians, including two children, killed in the Gaza Strip on Monday :

A 5-year old child was killed and three members of her family were injured in Beit Lahia in the northern part of the Gaza Strip. In a separate incident, a child and his grandmother were killed; three residents were injured in the northern part of the Gaza Strip.
http://tinyurl.com/mvd4f


UN official accuses Israel of excessive force in Gaza :

UN humanitarian coordinator Jan Egeland today criticised Israel's strike last month on the sole power plant in impoverished Gaza as a "clear" example of disproportionate use of force.
http://tinyurl.com/n2vja


Israelis accused of 'human shields' tactic :

According to the Israeli human rights group, B'tselem, six civilians including two minors were subjected to the illegal tactic during an invasion into the town of Beit Hanoun last week.
http://news.bbc.co.uk/2/hi/middle_east/5212870.stm


Leave your home, we are going to demolish it:

Without warning, the telephone or cellular phone rings in a Palestinian home. The caller is an Israeli intelligence officer who speaks weak Arabic. He speaks little and has only specific words to say, "We are from the Israeli Defence Force. Leave the house - we will destroy it in half an hour."
http://www.maannews.net/en/index.php?opr=S...=Print&ID=13669


A Must Listen BBC Radio Documentary:

A Date With Bevin:

Jewish insurgents, who had long been fighting a bloody insurgency campaign against British troops in Palestine, were about to take their war to London.
http://www.informationclearinghouse.info/article14188.htm

SECRETARY-GENERAL SHOCKED BY COORDINATED ISRAELI ATTACK ON UNITED NATIONS OBSERVER POST IN LEBANON, WHICH KILLED TWo PEACEKEEPERS Department of Public Information • News and Media Division • New York - Secretary-General - United Nations
The following statement by UN Secretary-General Kofi Annan was issued today in Rome: I am shocked and deeply distressed by the apparently deliberate targeting by Israeli Defense Forces of a United Nations observer post in southern Lebanon that has killed two United Nations military observers, with two more feared dead. This coordinated artillery and aerial attack on a long established and clearly marked United Nations post at Khiyam occurred despite personal assurances given to me by Prime Minister Ehud Olmert that United Nations positions would be spared Israeli fire. Furthermore, General Alain Pelligrini, the United Nations Force Commander in south Lebanon, had been in repeated contact with Israeli officers throughout the day on Tuesday, stressing the need to protect that particular United Nations position from attack. I call on the Government of Israel to conduct a full investigation into this very disturbing incident, and demand that any further attack on United Nations positions and personnel must stop. The names and nationalities of those killed are being withheld pending notification of their families. I extend sincere condolences to the families of our fallen peacekeepers.

Israeli PM regrets UN deaths Toronto Star
BEIRUT — Hezbollah guerrillas exchanged heavy fire with Israeli troops attempting to capture a southern Lebanese town on Wednesday, causing several Israeli casualties. The fighting came a day after an Israeli air strike killed four United Nations observers, including one Canadian, in a border outpost. In a phone call to UN Secretary General Kofi Annan, Israeli Prime Minister Ehud Olmert expressed "deep regre