15% may be enough to run off to House
Posted 4/23/2006 10:54 PM ET
By William M. Welch, USA TODAY

SAN DIEGO — For a candidate who was nearly 30 percentage points behind his Democratic opponent, Republican Brian Bilbray figures his prospects are good.
In the unusual race to fill the seat of a disgraced and imprisoned congressman, Bilbray has gone from a distant second-place finisher in a crowded primary field to the candidate to beat in a June 6 runoff against Democrat Francine Busby.

"I just have to remind them who Brian is," says Bilbray, a former three-term member of the U.S. House.

The race in this Navy city and its affluent northern beaches has been closely watched by both parties in Washington for signs of how voters are feeling with control of Congress in the balance in November's elections.

With President Bush's approval ratings among the lowest of his tenure, gasoline topping $3 a gallon and U.S. troops still in Iraq, Democrats hope an upset here could signal the leading edge of an electoral wave.

"People who want to see change in this country are looking to this race," says Busby, 55, whose only other electoral experience is on a school board.

Bilbray won 15% of the vote in a special election this month for the seat of former congressman Randy "Duke" Cunningham, a Republican who was sent to prison for taking $2.4 million in bribes to steer Pentagon contracts. That 15% was enough to beat more than a dozen other Republican candidates. Democratic support gave Busby 44%. She was short of the 50%-plus-one needed to win the seat outright.

In the runoff, Republicans believe Bilbray has the advantage. Only 30% of the district's voters are registered as Democrats, and Bush won 55% of the vote here in 2004. The Republican candidates together got more than 53% of the vote in the open primary.

Allan Hoffenblum, publisher of California Target Book, a non-partisan state campaign analysis, says Republicans can't take the runoff for granted, but Busby will have a hard time finding a majority in the GOP-leaning district.

"Going from 44% to 51% is going to be extremely difficult, and everything has to break her way," Hoffenblum says. "She has to pick up voters who almost never vote Democratic."

Bilbray, 54, is a familiar face. He was elected to Congress three times from another district, representing southern San Diego, before losing to a Democrat in 2000. Since then he has been a registered lobbyist.

Republican strategists say they can rely on traditional voting patterns to prevail in the district. "Francine Busby pretty much hit her high-water mark," says Carl Forti, communications director for the National Republican Congressional Committee.

The district, former state Republican chairman Jon Fleischman says, "was drawn to elect a Republican."

"If Duke Cunningham's situation didn't exist, I would tell you no one could lose this seat if you're a Republican," he says.

National Democrats have tried to help Busby, hoping for a publicity bonanza if a Democrat can win in such a Republican stronghold. Senator and former presidential nominee John Kerry and House Democratic whip Steny Hoyer have been in the district to help her raise money, and the party has run ads and phone banks on her behalf.

Bill Burton, communications director of the Democratic Congressional Campaign Committee, says Busby "has already exceeded expectations."

Regardless of any potential electoral advantage, the vote could be complicated for the GOP. The runoff will determine who serves the remainder of Cunningham's term in the 50th Congressional District. But several of the Republicans whom Bilbray beat in the open primary will also be on the ballot June 6 in a separate race to decide the party's nominee in November's election for the seat's next full two-year term.

Businessman Eric Roach, a conservative Republican, spent $1.8 million of his own money in the primary and finished behind Bilbray by just over 1,000 votes. He is considering whether to remain in the race for the Republican nomination in November. He has been running ads on radio thanking supporters and telling them to stay tuned.

Fleischman says many conservatives want Roach to stay in the race for the two-year term. "What you have not seen is a coalescing behind Bilbray," he says. "Brian Bilbray clearly was not able to resonate with conservatives."

Amid all the political intrigue, the two candidates are hoping to focus voters on their own issues.

For Democrat Busby, the issue is Cunningham's brazen bribery, in which he demanded money and furniture from defense contractors. Revelations about Cunningham won the local newspaper, The San Diego Union-Tribune, a Pulitzer Prize last week. Democrats have tried to make Cunningham emblematic of what they call a "culture of corruption" under Republican rule in Washington.

"The only reason we're having this election is because of Cunningham and his corruption," Busby says. "Brian Bilbray is a lobbyist. I don't think a lobbyist can clean up the mess in Washington."

For Bilbray, the issue is illegal immigration, and he defends his lobbying work as advocacy for immigration reform, which is popular in this region near the border. He calls for building a wall along the border with Mexico and cracking down on employers who hire illegal immigrants.

Busby backs a bipartisan Senate bill that would create a guest-worker program, a feature also backed by bush. Bilbray is staking out a far tougher position and accuses the Bush administration of "criminal intent not to enforce the law" by permitting illegal immigration.

"I think the president ought to be investigated for not enforcing immigration laws on employers," Bilbray says.



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