"... The common idea that Bush and his bosses want to use another 9/11 type terrorist attack to drum up support for further military action in the middle east is probably half-right at this point and was at some point in the past closer to completely correct; for all their apparent bumbling in the foreign policy sector the faction bush is public head of is pretty astute on domestic politics -- I'd argue that when they get the tone wrong domestically it's because of a need to humor their base and not very often because they make a misjudgment -- and the domestic mood right now, I think, is such that a major terrorist attack on American soil would likely backfire, or is likely enough to backfire to make it too risky a strategy to take. Thus, I strongly doubt we'll see a staged terror attack in the states anytime soon unless things are far far far too desperate for the bushites behind the scenes.
If we have another terror attack on American soil sometime soon, odds are it won't be of 9/11 scale and it will be at least in part authentic islamic terrorism, although it may be augmented by malevolent elements -- the bush cabal, again, or someone higher up than that -- to ensure its success and psychological impact; given the narrow tightrope between an obviously catastrophic -- and probably staged -- attack and a smaller but possibly unconvincing authentic terror attack I'm inclined to think the political minds in DC will not attempt the former and will not be overly motivated to LIHOP the latter.
On the other hand, the window of opportunity to broaden the campaign in the middle east is fading pretty quick: Iran will have nukes soon (a good thing in my mind, ceteris paribus, but that's another day's topic), the worse the situation in Iraq and now Afghanistan becomes the mroe additional troops will be needed just to hold onto the territory, making it all the more difficult to accumulate the surplus forces needed to mount any kind of ground war, etc...and if we actually start pulling out of Iraq and/or Afghanistan the cost of redeploying to the middle east post-withdrawal will be prohibitive. On top of all that our financial position is precarious and likely only to make it all the more difficult to fund an Iran adventure the longer we wait. So, although I'm skeptical that the red button is going to be pushed and another major attack made or let to happen, on the other hand the geopolitical situation looks like now or close to now is the very tail end of the time when further middle-east geopolitical goals could be accomplished, so who knows...
I suspect the likely candidate for a staged catastrophic attack would be 'just' nukes, probably taking out a few 'expendable' cities instead of major ones (ie, not new york). Cities on my shortlist include Phoenix, AZ, Las Vegas, any number of middle-american mid-sized towns (although those are harder to throw a backstory on than the former two), some of the larger cities in Texas, maybe San Diego or its satellites. A nuke attack would once again get us some global sympathy, change the international political dynamic, and alleviate the complex americans have vis-a-vis being the only nation thus far to use nukes aggressively, which would pave the way any number of unconventional weapons to be used in subsequent wars.
A biological terrorist attack is highly unlikely as a staged event because it's too messy; as an authentic event it's more likely, but I doubt the stuff terrorists have access to will be sufficiently virulent to do much actual damage, although the psychological damage could be large.
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As for the biological stuff, though, the likely explanation is something like this: if you wanted, say, to survive the apocalypse and come out on top, what you'd need to do is first survive the apocalypse, and second topple all challengers. In the event of a major catastrophe -- geophysical changes, global nuclear war, whathave you -- the odds are damn good that there will be an appreciable number of survivors, and the 'elite' survivors will be outnumbered pretty badly by normal survivors...so as long as you're holed up in some underground city waiting for the radioactivity to go down a bit you may as well release a ton of some horrible plague into the outside world to cut down on undesired survivors.
For this purpose biological weapons are damn near perfect, and so I'm guessing they're mostly intended to be used by the elite should 'the game come to an end' to make absolutely sure that it's the elite who survive...keep in mind that most of the elite probably have bunkers and stuff all set up -- after all that was the prudent thing to do throughout the cold war years, and a lot of the elderly elite sorts probably are more paranoid in that way than we are -- so all bets are off as to how much time + money they've put into their little secured retreats.
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A bit of a ramble I'm afraid, but the short summary:
- manufactured terror probably nukes on expendable cities for which convenient explanations of how the nukes arrived on-site can be made
- authentic terror much less catastrophic but possibly biological, more likely a rash of domestic suicide bombings or some such
- neither very likely because the domestic political situation makes it hard to say if the required political effect will be achieved, but the global geopolitical situation may demand one or the other happens
-- biological terrorism on a massive scale likely reserved for the elites to take out any possible competitors when the "expletive deleted" truly hits the fan, and is unlikely to be employed prior to such time due to the general uncontrollability of biological agents."
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The whole enchilada (original blog and other responses, and Jeff's reply) can be found here: http://rigorousintuition.blogspot.com/2005...is-calling.html .
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Your own thoughts are invited below.
