Thursday, June 01, 2006
CA-50: Wah Wah Wah... Wipeout!
Posted by James L.
San Diego professor of Political Science Carl Luna, writing for the S.D. Union-Tribune, has a great breakdown on why surfer-turned-lobbyist-turned-Congressional candidate Brian Bilbray is facing a gnarly nightmare at the polls next Tuesday. Read it; it's a fun article, but for those without the time, here's the SparkNotes version of Bilbray's bind:
1) He was bruised by a divisive, expensive, and crowded primary.
2) His career as a lobbyist has only left him all the more vulnerable to anti-corruption broadsides.
3) Busby's lack of meaningful primary opposition has allowed her to pursue a message of competence, moderation and good governance over anything particularly ideological, while Bilbray has been caught-up in the Republican primary crowd's rush to out-right each other.
4) He has the charisma of "Nixon in a speedo".
5) His defeated conservative primary opponents have not rallied around him, and instead are STILL challenging Bilbray on the June 6 primary ballot--hurting Bilbray's appeal among conservatives.
6) His hard-right tack on immigration may end up pleasing no one--it will turn off moderates while leaving conservatives unconvinced.
7) He's tainted by horrid approval numbers for the President and the Republican Congress.
8) The NRCC's campaign ads which allege that Busby is "soft on pedophiles" have the potential for significant backlash votes.
9) In the last week of the campaign, Dick Cheney--not exactly the popular, cuddly face of the Republican Party--enthusiastically (I use the term loosely) stumped for Bilbray while John McCain, still the hero to moderate and independent Republicans, sapped Bilbray's momentum by boycotting a scheduled fundraiser after he started to slap around Busby for supporting McCain's immigration plan. This isn't the way you make friends and influence people, bro.
But for all his woes, Luna's convinced that the McCain snub will really be Bilbray's undoing:
Bottom line. Bilbray’s being jilted at the fund raising alter by that darling of the middle (or, is it the darling of the muddled?) John “Man For All Seasons, Audiences, People and Voters” McCain may well prove to have been the final pounder of Bilbray’s political surfing hopes. McCain’s boycott is a blazing sign to moderates and independents that Bilbray just ain’t their dude.
Up through last week my bet was Bilbray by 2%. Given the way things are breaking, I now have to go Busby by a nose. Or, in surferese, by a toe on the nose.
It'll be a tight one, but it looks increasingly possible that Francine Busby can pull this one off.
(Thanks to Predictor for the tip.)
PS: Busby really seems to be hitching her wagon to Sen. McCain in order to innoculate herself against Bilbray's attacks, as seen in her ad entitled "It's Not Amnesty". A brilliant strategy in a ruby red district or unnerving McCain-boosting? Both, maybe.
UPDATE: Dailykos diarist dengre has an excellent diary up detailing the links between Brian Bilbray and Jack Abramoff.
Posted at 12:05 AM in 2006 Elections - House, California | Comments (1) | TrackBack (0) | Other Blogs Linking to This Post
Tuesday, May 30, 2006
CA-50: "Maverick" John McCain Cancels Bilbray Fundraiser
Posted by James L.
From the Associated Press, comes word of "maverick" Sen. John McCain sticking fast to his ideals and not being pushed around by his extremist peers in the Republican Party:
Arizona Sen. John McCain on Tuesday canceled an appearance for a Republican congressional candidate who has attacked his opponent for supporting McCain's immigration bill.
McCain, R-Ariz., was scheduled to speak Wednesday at a breakfast fundraiser for Brian Bilbray, who is locked in a close runoff race with Democrat Francine Busby for the San Diego-area seat left vacant by disgraced former Rep. Randy "Duke" Cunningham. The event was expected to raise at least $65,000.
So Bilbray smacks Busby for supporting one of McCain's policies. That's surely enough for our favorite straight-talking "maverick" to stay true to his principles and rescind his endorsement of Bilbray, right? Right? Erm, maybe not:
In an e-mail sent to the Bilbray campaign, McCain spokesman Craig Goldman acknowledged that McCain and Bilbray "disagree on some of the issues related to immigration reform." He said McCain did not want his appearance to distract from Bilbray's campaign.
The e-mail reiterated McCain's endorsement of Bilbray, and said the senator's Straight Talk America political action committee would make the maximum allowable contribution of $5,000 to Bilbray's campaign. Goldman did not return phone and e-mail messages left seeking comment.
Pathetic. But oh well; at least it's one more momentum-sapping headline for Brian Bilbray.
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