U.S. House race watched for shift to Democrats

Tue Jun 6, 2006 10:12 AM ET
By John Whitesides, Political Correspondent

WASHINGTON, June 6 (Reuters) - A hard-fought U.S. House election in California is being closely watched for signs of a political shift away from President George W. Bush's Republican party in November's congressional election.

Among the contests in a busy day of voting in eight states on Tuesday, Democrat Francine Busby and Republican Brian Bilbray are running hard in a special election in a conservative district north of San Diego to replace former Republican congressman Randy Cunningham, who is now in prison for taking bribes.

With congressional Republicans and Bush slumping in the polls, the California race could provide clues to voter sentiment in November when all 435 seats in the House of Representatives, as well as 33 Senate seats and 36 governorships, will be up for grabs.

Montana, Alabama, Iowa, New Jersey, Mississippi, New Mexico and South Dakota also hold primaries to select candidates for the November elections. Among the key races, Montana Democrats choose a challenger to embattled Republican Sen. Conrad Burns, California Democrats pick a rival for Republican Gov. Arnold Schwarzenegger and both parties choose a nominee for governor in Alabama.

In November, Democrats must pick up 15 House seats and six Senate seats to regain control in each chamber, giving them the power to set the legislative agenda and more effectively challenge Bush.

A win in the California House race would be a huge first step for Democrats, who have been encouraged by Busby's showing in a district that normally favors Republicans.

Both parties have poured millions of dollars into what has become a rough campaign, and Republicans launched a radio ad to capitalize on comments on immigration by Busby.

While talking to a mostly Hispanic audience at a senior center last Thursday, Busby said: "You don't need papers for voting, you don't need to be a registered voter to help."

Busby later said she misspoke but Bilbray and Republicans said she was encouraging illegal immigrants to help her.

An independent candidate, William Griffith, could siphon votes from Bilbray, a former congressman who has been accused by conservatives of being too moderate on social issues.

The winner of the special election will serve only to the end of Cunningham's term and must run again in November. 

This is a bellweather race. If Busby wins in a 70% Repub district, it will be a thunder clap heard all the way to DC

Just finished voting here in LA. My district uses the "Inkavote" dot system. Works just fine. I was on the lookout for any electronic voting machines. Didn't see any. Voted for Debra Bowen for Sec. of State who has pledged to ban Diebold and all Paperless voting systems from CA. I also voted for Phil Angelides for Gov. and Jerry Brown for Attorney General.

Just finished voting here in LA. My district uses the "Inkavote" dot system. Works just fine. I was on the lookout for any electronic voting machines. Didn't see any. Voted for Debra Bowen for Sec. of State who has pledged to ban Diebold and all Paperless voting systems from CA. I also voted for Phil Angelides for Gov. and Jerry Brown for Attorney General.

Early returns (absentee) for Busby's race via DKOS

CA-50: Results
by kos
Tue Jun 06, 2006 at 08:29:44 PM PDT
Christine Pelosi at Trail Mix:
57 of 500 Precincts  11.4 Percent

Bilbray ®  20,448  50.60

Busby (D)    17,329  42.88
These are the absentee ballots.
http://www.dailykos.com/story/2006/6/6/232944/9273

New Results as of 10:13 (0 / 0)
Francine is gaining

Bilbray:  21,602

busby:  18,560

The first ballots counted are absentee, which generally are more conservative voters, as someone may have stated already.

Brian Bilbray-Rep 50284 49.64%

Francine Busby-Dem 45649 45.06%

W-Griffth-Ind 3790 3.74%

Paul King-Lib 1584 1.56%

(CNSNews.com) - The Republican Party is congratulating Brian Bilbray on his victory in California's special congressional election.

With most of the vote counted, Bilbray led Democrat Francine Bilbray by about 5 points -- 49.5-45 percent, according to Wednesday morning press reports.

"In a hard fought campaign, Brian's commitment to fiscal discipline in the nation's capitol, border security and immigration reform, and his dedication to protecting children from predators were the difference in the race," said RNC Chairman Ken Mehlman.

"Voters in California's 50th Congressional District rejected the Democrats' agenda to raise taxes, grow government, and play politics with our national security."

Mehlman said that as a former member of Congress (Bilbray served three terms before losing his seat in 2000), Bilbray will be able to go to work for his constituents the moment he's sworn in. "His experience will make him an early and powerful advocate for greater fiscal restraint and more effective border security," Mehlman said.

Bilbray, who campaigned for stricter immigration controls (and against the Senate's "earned citizenship" immigration bill), will fill the seat vacated by convicted felon Randy "Duke" Cunningham.

His opponent, who campaigned against the alleged Republican culture of corruption, has insisted all along that regardless of the outcome, she has shown the nation that a Democrat can make a strong showing in what's considered a "safe" Republican district.

Some political analysts cast the Bilbray-Busby battle as a referendum on the nation's Republican-led government -- and a harbinger of what may happen to Republicans in the midterm elections, as they are forced to fight for previously "safe" seats.

A pro-growth, free enterprise group called Bilbray's win a a victory for free-market economic policies.

Very Close --- Not so disapointing. 
CLOSE !!! 

That ought to shake some of them Republicans Up !!!

Just finished voting here in LA. My district uses the "Inkavote" dot system. Works just fine. I was on the lookout for any electronic voting machines. Didn't see any. Voted for Debra Bowen for Sec. of State who has pledged to ban Diebold and all Paperless voting systems from CA. I also voted for Phil Angelides for Gov. and Jerry Brown for Attorney General.

Bilbray edges out Busby

U.S. Rep. 50th Count:100%
Brian Bilbray  49.33%
Francine Busby  45.46%


Rep. Filner beats Democratic rival in latest rematch
By Philip J. LaVelle and Dani Dodge
UNION-TRIBUNE STAFF WRITERS



2:12 a.m. June 7, 2006
Associated Press

Brian Bilbray, right, Republican candidate in the 50th congressional district, is congratulated by supporters at an Election Night party.

Republican Brian Bilbray beat Democrat Francine Busby early Wednesday in a close race to replace imprisoned former Rep. Randy “Duke” Cunningham in the 50th Congressional District, a contest seen as a gauge of voter attitudes for the national midterm elections.

In another closely watched race, Rep. Bob Filner easily defeated Assemblyman Juan Vargas in the 51st Congressional District Democratic primary. It was their third face-off in what has become a long and bitter rivalry.

Bilbray made a late-night victory statement to a cheering crowd.

“With almost 80 percent of the precincts reporting, I think that we're going back to Washington,” he said.

Busby's campaign said she would make a statement later Wednesday morning.

Bilbray said earlier in an interview that he believed his long focus on illegal immigration would pay off in the race against Busby, a Cardiff school board member.

“It's been ignored for too long,” said Bilbray, a former congressman-turned-lobbyist. “It's been a simmering problem that's come to a head.”

Bilbray also said that running in a heavily Republican district was an advantage, to a degree. “It can also be a big negative, because people were really hurt by Mr. Cunningham. But it was one man's mistake, and we have to remember that,” he said.

“I don't think anyone should be writing the epitaph for the Republican Party based on what's happened tonight.”

Filner said he expected to have the edge because of “25 years of effective representation. My opponent had nothing positive to say.”

Vargas could not be reached for comment last night.

The winner in the 50th District will go to Washington and complete the last six months of Cunningham's term, but the campaign will continue. Bilbray and Busby seem certain to face off again in November.

The structure of Tuesday's ballot underscored the unusual nature of the election. In addition to the special-election runoff, voters in the 50th cast ballots in the primary for the next two-year term. Busby and Bilbray led their parties in this race, and only Bilbray had nominal opposition because most candidates on the primary ballot agreed not to campaign.

Aside from Filner, none of San Diego County congressional incumbents faced primary opposition and all are expected to cruise to victory in November: Republican Darrell Issa of Vista in the 49th District, Republican Duncan Hunter of Alpine in the 52nd District and Democrat Susan Davis in the 53rd District.

Issa has no Democratic opponent. Hunter will be challenged by Democrat John Rinaldi. Davis will face Republican John Woodrum.

Blake L. Miles won the Republican nomination in Filner's heavily Democratic 51st District.

While Filner and Vargas waged one of the nations's toughest primary campaigns, the Bilbray-Busby race attracted national attention because of the Cunningham scandal and the conventional wisdom that the outcome could foreshadow the midterm elections, when the Democrats hope to win back the House.

In November, a tearful Cunningham, once a brash, swaggering Navy fighter ace in the Vietnam War, resigned his seat after pleading guilty in San Diego federal court to conspiracy and tax evasion for taking more than $2.4 million in bribes from defense contractors. He was sentenced to eight years and four months in federal prison.

Gov. Arnold Schwarzenegger set a special election to fill the seat, which was held April 11. The district – a political subdivision including some of the city of San Diego's northern communities plus much of suburban North County – is heavily Republican.

Eighteen candidates were on the April ballot, including 14 Republicans. No candidate won a majority, so the top voter-getters of each party moved to yesterday's runoff. Bilbray is a political veteran whose career was spent in the South Bay, as mayor of Imperial Beach, as a county supervisor and then as a member of Congress from 1995 to 2001.

After losing his seat to Susan Davis, he became a lobbyist, spending some of his time working for FAIR, an anti-illegal-immigration group. Bilbray moved to his mother's Carlsbad home last year, shortly after Cunningham's troubles were revealed.

Busby is an 18-year Cardiff resident and has served on the Cardiff school board since 2000. She ran against Cunningham in 2004, and after losing by a wide margin, immediately started campaigning for 2006.

This year's race pitted a Democrat against a Republican seen by many in his own party as too liberal on social issues, including abortion rights, which he supports. There were nasty TV attack ads financed by both Republican and Democratic national parties and visits by high-profile party leaders.

Despite a substantial Republican voter-registration advantage – 44 Republican, 30 percent Democrat and 22 percent independent – polls suggested a dead heat.

Busby focused her campaign on ethics and the “culture of corruption” in Washington – a popular theme among Democratic congressional candidates this year.

But immigration become the defining issue, reflecting its standing atop public opinion surveys in California.

Busby supports the U.S. Senate's immigration bill, which calls for a comprehensive approach to immigration, including a path to citizenship for illegal immigrants along with enforcement measures.

That bill is pushed by Sen. John McCain, R-Ariz., which led to an awkward situation for Bilbray, who has said the bill would lead to “amnesty.” McCain and others dispute that characterization and McCain canceled a scheduled appearance at a Bilbray fundraiser last week, though he said he continued to support the Republican candidate.

Bilbray supports the harder-line House immigration bill, focused exclusively on enforcement, and has said he favors building a fence from the Pacific Ocean to the Gulf of Mexico.

Late last week, Busby found herself doing damage control for a verbal blunder – telling a Spanish-speaker at a meeting of mostly Latinos that “You don't need papers for voting.” Republicans seized on her comments, and she later said she flubbed her words and did not mean to advocate illegal immigrants voting, but that she wanted to say people not registered to vote could help her campaign.

By Monday, the GOP had launched a radio ad that said, “That's right. Francine Busby says you don't need papers to vote.”

In the 51st Congressional District, it was Round Three between Filner and Vargas, who faced each other in 1992 and 1996.

Both candidates were in relative agreement on the issues, and the contest was marked more by personal attacks than policy discussion.

Each candidate argued that he would be the better representative for the district, with a particular focus on Latinos, who make up about 40 percent of the registered voters in the heavily Democratic district. The 51st includes the South Bay and all of Imperial County.

Vargas, a former San Diego City Council member being forced from the Assembly by term limits, hit Filner for paying his wife more than $505,000 in campaign money over the years to be his fundraiser. Filner said the practice is legal.

Vargas describes himself as a moderate-to-conservative Democrat.

Filner criticized Vargas as being out of step with Democratic Party orthodoxy.

He also attacked Vargas for taking more than $335,000 in contributions from the insurance industry and voting with the industry over consumers, particularly on bills favored by victims of San Diego's 2003 wildfires. Vargas is chairman of the Assembly Insurance Committee.



--------------------------------------------------------------------------------

Staff writers Lori Weisberg and Caitlin Rother contributed to this story, and an Associated Press report was used in compiling it.
 
Find this article at:
http://www.signonsandiego.com/news/politic...52-7n7duke.html 

"In a hard fought campaign, Brian's commitment to fiscal discipline in the nation's capitol, border security and immigration reform, and his dedication to protecting children from predators were the difference in the race," said RNC Chairman Ken Mehlman.

"Voters in California's 50th Congressional District rejected the Democrats' agenda to raise taxes, grow government, and play politics with our national security."

Mehlman said that as a former member of Congress (Bilbray served three terms before losing his seat in 2000), Bilbray will be able to go to work for his constituents the moment he's sworn in. "His experience will make him an early and powerful advocate for greater fiscal restraint and more effective border security," Mehlman said.

Bilbray, who campaigned for stricter immigration controls (and against the Senate's "earned citizenship" immigration bill), will fill the seat vacated by convicted felon Randy "Duke" Cunningham.

His opponent, who campaigned against the alleged Republican culture of corruption, has insisted all along that regardless of the outcome, she has shown the nation that a Democrat can make a strong showing in what's considered a "safe" Republican district.

Some political analysts cast the Bilbray-Busby battle as a referendum on the nation's Republican-led government -- and a harbinger of what may happen to Republicans in the midterm elections, as they are forced to fight for previously "safe" seats.

A pro-growth, free enterprise group called Bilbray's win a a victory for free-market economic policies.

Two words......immigration issue

Two words......immigration issue

They are so relentless ( and unfortunately successful) with wedge issues it does two things.

1 it wins them elections

2. It makes trying to discuss issues on their merits a joke anywhere near an election

They will forget about immigration issue for a year after election until they can trot it out again.