CDI Missile Defense Update #6
June 28, 2006
Center for Defense Information
www.cdi.org

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NB#1: A joint op-ed by CDI Research Analyst Victoria Samson and Center for Arms Control and Non-Proliferation Senior Military Fellow Lt. Gen. Robert Gard, U.S. Army, Ret., discusses the implausibility of the statement by U.S. Air Force Lt. Gen. Trey Obering, head of MDA, at a conference in late March that “We could certainly shoot down an incoming missile if we needed to.” In fact, in “The Growing Hubris Over Missile Defense Capabilities,” they argue that about the only thing missile defense can say it has is “an appalling amount of faith in itself.” They also ask, “Is this enough to warrant continuing the premature deployment of an insufficiently developed and tested GMD system to counter an unlikely threat when programs that deserve a higher priority are undefended?” The op-ed is available at http://www.cdi.org/program/document.cfm?Do..._page=index.cfm.

NB#2: CDI Senior Advisor Phil Coyle spoke to NPR’s Steve Inskeep on June 21, 2006, about the unlikelihood of shooting down a North Korean ICBM with the U.S. missile defense system and the problems the overall system faces. To hear the interview, go to http://www.npr.org/templates/story/story.php?storyId=5500091.

NB#3: CDI Research Analyst Victoria Samson was recently a guest blogger at ArmsControlWonk.com. She looked at the possibility of turning missile defense “on” to handle the recent news of North Korea’s possible impending Taepodong 2 test and spells out why the GMD system won’t provide any defense. Read her post at http://www.armscontrolwonk.com/1111/missil...res-nobody-home. Samson explained the context surrounding last week’s flight test intercept of the Aegis Ballistic Missile Defense system in an additional post, available at http://www.armscontrolwonk.com/1115/finall...od-news-for-mda.

NB#4: With all the talk about what the GMD system can do, it helps to take a step back and look at the flight test history. CDI has a flight test chart that indicates that the program has a long way to go in proving its reliability. The chart can be found at http://www.cdi.org/program/document.cfm?Do..._page=index.cfm.

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1. Missile defense has been turned “on”?
2. Money added for more missile defense testing
3. Obering “very confident” in missile defense
4. U.S. and Japan formalize missile defense cooperation
5. Japan approves U.S. Patriot missile deployment in Okinawa
6. Upgraded Aegis interceptor has successful flight test
7. U.S. pushing for Czech response on housing missile defense interceptors
8. Chief Pentagon buyer supports space-based missile defense
9. Weldon warns missile defense may bankroll other programs
10. GAO criticizes absence of operational cost estimates for missile defense
11. Canadian missile defense up for vote
12. NATO completes missile defense feasibility study
13. Raytheon team wins Israeli missile defense competition
14. MDA announces first successful flight test of revamped THAAD

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1. Missile defense has been turned “on”?
The Washington Times reported (June 20, 2006) that the United States activated its nascent missile defense system designed to protect the continental United States against an ICBM attack. This was in response to the news that North Korea may be preparing for a test of its Taepodong 2 missile. There are a lot of unknowns in this scenario: the range of the Taepodong 2, whether they’re intending a test (which would end the self-imposed long-range missile test moratorium North Korea put in place in 1999) of the missile or possibly launching a satellite, and what exactly it means to turn the missile defense system “on.” The Missile Defense Agency (MDA) has never stated what it would consider an operational missile defense system.

2. Money added for more missile defense testing
During its debate on the fiscal year (FY) 2007 defense authorization bill, the Senate voted 98-0 to increase funding for missile defense testing. The bill unexpectedly shifted $45 million in the budget for military personnel accounts to the Missile Defense Agency (MDA), and the MDA was urged to use the funds to conduct more “realistic flight testing” for the Ground-based Midcourse Defense (GMD) system. Of course, each GMD flight test costs roughly $100 million, so this money, while a step in the right direction, probably won’t go that far.
(Defense Daily, June 23, 2006)

3. Obering “very confident” in missile defense
Apparently the Ground-based Midcourse Defense (GMD) system’s lack of a successful intercept for four years has not discouraged the head of the Missile Defense Agency (MDA) from believing that the incomplete system could shoot down a North Korean missile. When asked by reporters about the possibility, Lt. Gen. Trey Obering responded, “From what I've seen from our testing from the last several years ... and what I know about the system and its capabilities, I'm very confident.” Despite this level of confidence, Obering would not confirm that the system had been turned “on,” but would only say that it had been shifted into an operational mode several times since the system was declared in 2004 to have reached a limited defensive capability.
(Reuters, June 23, 2006)

4. U.S. and Japan formalize missile defense cooperation
In the midst of all the concern about the possibility of a North Korean Taepodong 2 test flight, the United States and Japan announced on June 23, 2006, that they had finalized their plans for missile defense cooperation. With the signing of documents by U.S. Amb. Thomas Schieffer and Japanese Foreign Minister Taro Aso, the two countries agreed to cooperate on missile defense programs. This announcement, while well-timed, is nothing new: it simply marks the formalization of an agreement first announced last December where the two countries would split the cost of Japan obtaining Standard Missile (SM)-3 interceptors on Aegis destroyers and Patriot Advanced Capability (PAC)-3 interceptors.
(Philadelphia Inquirer, June 24, 2006; Financial Times (U.K.), June 24, 2006)

5. Japan approves U.S. Patriot missile deployment in Okinawa
Japan has approved the deployment of Patriot Advanced Capability (PAC-3) missile defense batteries at the U.S. Kaneda Air Base in Okinawa, Asia Pulse reported (May 22, 2006). Expected to begin during this fiscal year, U.S. PAC-3 deployments will run parallel with those of Japan’s Air Self-Defense Force, which plans to position them in its own bases starting with those in its Saitama and Shizuoka prefectures.

6. Upgraded Aegis interceptor has successful flight test
The upgraded version of the interceptor used for the Aegis Ballistic Missile Defense (Aegis BMD) system, the Standard Missile (SM)-3 Block 1A had a successful flight test on June 22, 2006. During Flight Test Maritime (FTM)-10, a medium-range target with a separating warhead was intercepted at an altitude of roughly 100 miles. It was launched from the USS Shiloh, instead of the USS Lake Erie, which had held that role in previous tests of the Aegis BMD system. FTM-10 marked the seventh intercept out of eight attempts for the overall sea-based system, and it also is notable as the first time another country’s ship – Japan’s Aegis destroyer Kirishima – participated in such an exercise. However, it appears that the Aegis’ Solid Divert and Attitude Control System was still not used in its most advanced mode: the last time it was, in June 2003, it caused the system’s only flight test failure to date.
(Agence France-Presse, June 23, 2006; PR Newswire, June 22, 2006; Missile Defense Agency News Release, June 22, 2006)

7. U.S. pushing for Czech response on housing missile defense interceptors
The United States and the Czech Republic are reportedly finishing up negotiations on the latter housing some interceptors for the U.S. Ground-based Midcourse Defense (GMD) system. According to the Czech Republic’s NATO Amb. Stefan Fule, discussions should wrap up soon with a decision on where, and within which countries, the anti-rocket umbrella should be sited. Being considered as possible places for the GMD interceptors are Dobris and Rapotice, two former Warsaw Pact bases that used to house Soviet S-200 Vega surface-to-air missiles. The United States has not officially asked the Czech Republic to place interceptors in these locations, as the United States apparently will only do so if it can be ensured a positive response. Hence, Washington is pushing for an answer by the end of September. Coming on the heels of an inconclusive election in the Czech Republic, a “yes” announcement could cause some domestic political disputes.
(Agence France-Presse, June 26, 2006)

8. Chief Pentagon buyer supports space-based missile defense
Kenneth Krieg, undersecretary of defense for acquisition, has come out in support of a space-based test bed that would attempt to become part of the layered U.S. missile defense system all while breaking a decades-long taboo against putting weapons in space. According to Krieg, “I'm supportive of creating a test bed…And then we'll see what we do with it afterwards.” The idea has been portrayed by the Missile Defense Agency (MDA) as merely a test bed, but critics point out that the Ft. Greely, Alaska, site – which is home to most of the agency’s deployed interceptors – also started out as a test bed. Following a common Pentagon tactic, Krieg downplayed the significance of the program, stating that it would merely increase the amount of options open to MDA, and that “increasing the number of options we have to choose from is generally a good idea.”
(Reuters, May 10, 2006)

9. Weldon warns missile defense may bankroll other programs
Rep. Curt Weldon, R-Penn., a senior member of the House Armed Services Committee, suggested on May 25, 2006, that missile defense may face funding cuts as defense budgets contract and Congress seeks programs to trim. “As this squeeze continues, missile defense is going to end up – by many people – to be the bill payer, and you've got to understand that,” Weldon said at a National Defense University Foundation breakfast forum. With over $11 billion requested for missile defense funding in the fiscal year 2007 budget request, the program increasingly competes with personnel costs, foreign operations, and other weapon systems.
(Aerospace Daily & Defense Report, May 26, 2006)

10. GAO criticizes absence of operational cost estimates for missile defense
The Government Accountability Office (GAO) released a report on May 31, 2006, that brought the Missile Defense Agency (MDA) to task for still not having any specified operational costs for its missile defense programs, nor having solidified the conditions under which they could be used. As such, the GAO recommended that MDA follow the same reporting rules that the rest of the Pentagon has to do and create standards and costs for the missile defense systems. The report, “Defense Management: Actions needed to improve operational planning and visibility of costs for ballistic missile defense,” GAO Report GAO-06-473, can be found at http://www.cdi.org/program/issue/document....D=6&issueID=224.
(Fairbanks Daily News-Miner, June 1, 2006)

11. Canadian missile defense up for vote
On May 12, 2006, Canadian Prime Minister Stephen Harper motioned for a free vote in the House of Commons over Canada’s participation in a NATO ballistic missile defense program. Announced a week after NATO released a feasibility study on missile defense, the free vote on Canada’s participation is an extension of Harper’s earlier parliamentary success at renewing and deepening NORAD defense partnership with the United States. Although missile defense is a divisive issue in Canadian politics and Harper’s initiative is not expected to succeed, some speculate he may exploit this as a wedge issue to strengthen his own hand while pushing rival parties apart.
(UPI, May 19, 2006)

12. NATO completes missile defense feasibility study
On May 10, 2006, an international consortium of defense contractors presented its final report of the NATO Missile Defense Feasibility Study to the alliance’s North Atlantic Council. Ten-thousand pages and four years in the making, the study concludes that Europe requires an expansive missile defense program to counter a growing ballistic missile threat from rogue nations, such as those emanating from Iran, Syria, and North Korea. Proposed are multiple sensor systems to track enemy missiles and a variety of interceptor platforms to neutralize them in all stages of flight. This study follows a 2004 NATO feasibility assessment of an Active Layered Ballistic Missile Defense (ALTBMD) for deployed force protection, to which end NATO will award a systems engineering and integration contract by year’s end.
(Defense Daily, May 11, 2006; Washington Times, May 11, 2006)

13. Raytheon team wins Israeli missile defense competition
Raytheon and Israel’s RAFAEL won an Israeli contract to produce an inexpensive anti-missile system to guard against short-range ballistic missile (SRBM) threats. The two firms came out ahead of rivals Boeing and Israel Aircraft Industries, whose team has created the Arrow missile defense system. The Raytheon/RAFAEL system features “hit-to-kill” interceptors that are supposed to be lethal against missiles with ranges of 40 to 250 kilometers. It differs from the Arrow system, which uses a blast-fragmentation warhead whose lethality relies on vicinity to its target.
(Defense Daily, May 22, 2006)

14. MDA announces first successful flight test of revamped THAAD
The U.S. Missile Defense Agency (MDA) announced “All planned test objectives were achieved,” in a May 11, 2006, integrated flight test of the Terminal High Altitude Area Defense (THAAD) ballistic missile defense system in White Sands, NM. The first test since November 2005, it was also the first to include all elements of the revamped weapon system, including the radar, fire control, mobile-launcher, and missile. Its target, however, was virtual. The next test, in a couple of months, will be a seeker characterization flight and will use an actual target. The November 2005 test, this test, and the next test will all use the same flight trajectory. Overall, MDA is planning three more flight tests at White Sands by the end of the year, which will include a seeker characterization flight, an intercept attempt, and low endo-atmospheric maneuvering with no target. Next year, the program will move to the Pacific Missile Range Facility (PMRF) on Kauai, HI, for the final 10 flight tests.
(Defense Daily, May 12, 2006)