http://www.nytimes.com/2006/08/03/world/mi...059&partner=AOL

U.S. Generals See Growing Threat of Civil War in Iraq

By DAVID STOUT
Published: August 3, 2006
WASHINGTON, Aug. 3 — Two senior American military commanders said today that the wave of sectarian bloodshed in Iraq has heightened the danger that the country will slide into all-out civil war.

Forum: The Middle East “I believe that the sectarian violence is probably as bad as I’ve seen it, in Baghdad in particular, and that if not stopped, it is possible that Iraq could move towards civil war,” Gen. John Abizaid, the commander of United States forces in the Middle East, told the Senate Armed Services Committee.

A similarly sobering assessment was offered by Gen. Peter Pace, the chairman of the Joint Chiefs of Staff, who said he can envision the present situation “devolving to a civil war.”

“But that does not have to be a fact,” General Pace added. In the long run, he said, peace in Iraq depends not just on American forces helping the Iraqis secure their own country but on Iraqis of different heritages deciding that they “love their children more than they hate each other.”

General Abizaid, too, said he remained hopeful. “Am I optimistic whether or not Iraqi forces, with our support, with the backing of the Iraqi government, can present the slide to civil war?” he asked rhetorically. “My answer is yes, I’m optimistic that the slide can be prevented.”

But the tone of the hearing, coinciding as it did with the continuing carnage in Iraq and the Israeli conflict with the Hezbollah militia in Lebanon, was not one of optimism. Nothing in the testimony of the commanders, or in that of Defense Secretary Donald H. Rumsfeld, pointed to an early withdrawal of United States forces.

“We can persevere in Iraq, or we can withdraw prematurely, until they force us to make a stand nearer home,” said Mr. Rumsfeld, appearing before the panel after sharp criticism of his earlier intention not to go to Capitol Hill. “But make no mistake: they’re not going to give up whether we acquiesce in their immediate demands or not.”

Mr. Rumsfeld said, as he has many times before, that the possibility of pulling out some American troops depended on the judgment of ground commanders. He counseled patience, from the lawmakers and their constituents. “Americans didn’t cross oceans and settle a wilderness and build history’s greatest democracy only to run away from a bunch of murderers and extremists who try to kill everyone that they cannot convert, and to tear down what they could never build,” he said.

General Pace sounded the same theme: “Our enemy knows they cannot defeat us in battle. They do believe, however, that they can wear down our will as a nation.”

But the committee chairman, Senator John W. Warner, Republican of Virginia, signaled that political support for the conflict could be fraying. “I think we have to examine very carefully what Congress authorized the president to do in the context of a situation if we’re faced with all-out civil war and whether we have to come back to the Congress to get further indication of support,” Mr. Warner said.

When General Abizaid was asked about the prospects for reducing American forces in Iraq by the end of the year, he replied, “It’s possible, depending on how things go in Baghdad and how Prime Minister Maliki and his government grab a hold of the security situation.” The general said he was confident that the Iraqis understood that the United States military commitment to Iraq was not open-ended.

In any event, Mr. Rumsfeld said it was difficult to gauge the ideal number of troops the United States and its allies should have in Iraq. Too many troops, and the Iraqis would see them as occupiers, leading to more unrest. To few, and the violence could spiral out of control. “There’s no rulebook,” Mr. Rumsfeld said.

The valor and sacrifice of America’s sons and daughters serving in Iraq was praised by Senator Warner and the committee’s ranking Democrat, Senator Carl Levin of Michigan, along with other panel members.

But the session was full of sharp, and occasionally angry, exchanges. For instance, Senator Hillary Rodham Clinton, Democrat of New York, accused Mr. Rumsfeld of being inconsistent over the months in his assessment of the military situation.

“Senator, I don’t think that’s true,” Mr. Rumsfeld said, declaring that the senator would have “a dickens of a time” documenting her assertion that he had been overly optimistic in the past. But Senator Clinton did not back down, and she said she would introduce evidence of her assertion into the committee record.

And Senator John S. McCain, Republican of Arizona, who is a firm supporter of the campaign in Iraq, voiced concern about the effects of shifting of United States troops into Baghdad, thereby lessening troop strength elsewhere. “What I worry about is, we’re playing a game of whack-a-mole here,” the senator said.

Mr. McCain had pointed exchanges with both generals, who conceded that events had taken them by surprise.

“General Pace,” the senator said, you said there’s a possibility of the situation in Iraq evolving into civil war. Is that correct?”

“I did say that, yes, sir,” the general replied.

“Did you anticipate this situation a year ago?”

“No, sir.”

“Did you, General Abizaid?”

“I believe that a year ago it was clear to see that sectarian tensions were increasing,” General Abizaid said. “That they would be this high, no.”

The general gave a positive evaluation of the 275,000 members of the Iraqi police, border security and military forces who had completed training. “They are much improved, and they continue to improve every month,” he said.

Senator Jack Reed, a Rhode Island Democrat who graduated from West Point and served in the Army for 12 years, said that under Mr. Rumsfeld’s tenure the Army had been stretched beyond its capacity, a situation he called “a stunning indictment of your leadership.”

“It think it’s an inaccurate statement,” Mr. Rumsfeld shot back, going on to say that the situation was more complicated than Mr. Reed had suggested.

Iraq Moving Toward Civil War, Top U.S. Commanders Say

By William Branigin and Mary Jordan

The top U.S. commander in the Middle East told a Senate panel today that the recent wave of sectarian violence in Iraq threatens to push the country toward an all-out civil war.

To view the entire article, go to http://www.washingtonpost.com/wp-dyn/conte...er=emailarticle

This morning I watched the whole hearing and McCain was the only R to focus on the problems now facing our military. The other R's when taking their turns, mostly did reparations, straightening the halo over the military that they genuflect to, noticeably done by Sessions, Chambliss and less so by Graham. And Warner even was so crass as to be the one providing responses, particulary noticeable when Sen Collins was at bat, she was better at trying to get a handle on the financial aspects and in fact some of the other D cmte members were insisting that the practice of supplemental emergency requests be abandoned and that the u&c practices should now be possible given the 40 months of this AUMF. Warner also dive-bombed a couple of the D's, if I remember correctly it was Sen Jack Reed and Sen Mark Dayton. The second round turn of questioning promised was reneged on.

I have heard CNN reporter twice on Situation Room giving her views on the hearing and none of the above insights of course get mentioned, instead the usual cherry-picking process occurred.

So if you want to get the flavor of what transpires on a different perception level, you need to tape and watch or see if video later available on C-SPan and not rely on the bits and pieces put together by broadcasters in their 2 minute impression or by print journalists heeding deadlines.


lenal

http://www.c-span.org/capitolspotlight/

Warner Suggests Congress Might Need to Take New Iraq War Vote August 3, 2006
by Congressional Quarterly

Congress might have to pass a new resolution authorizing the continuing use of U.S. military force in Iraq if a civil war erupts there, Senate Armed Services Chairman John W. Warner, R-Va., said today. Warner said U.S. forces have completed the main mission that Congress authorized them to perform — toppling Saddam Hussein. He said if a civil war erupts between Shiite and Sunni Muslims in Iraq, U.S. forces may be ill-trained to handle it and Congress might have to reconsider and potentially approve a new mission for the U.S. military. “I think we have to examine very carefully what Congress authorized the president to do in the context of a situation if we’re faced with an all-out civil war, and whether we have to come back to the Congress to get further indication of support,” he said. Military commanders testifying at the hearing gave senators little reassurance, as they said a civil war in Iraq was a real possibility.

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This remark by Warner - altho somewhat cryptic and almost delivered in an "aside" manner - seems to suggest a limitation on the C-I-C inherent executive powers, as viewed by the WH contingent.

Watch for further developments, and given that it was Warner, I have my antenna up for detecting movement on this.

This may be move to declare "V" and get the h*** out of the kitchen before it gets any hotter.

lenal

Generals Give Grim Report on Iraqi Strife

WASHINGTON-Top U.S. commanders tell senators that a troop
reduction this year is unlikely and that civil war is now possible
if violence isn't stemmed. By Julian E. Barnes.
http://email.latimes.com/cgi-bin1/DM/y/e6W...Io30G2B0HlAi0EC

http://news.bostonherald.com/editorial/vie...rticleid=151303

Generals above politics
By Boston Herald editorial staff
Friday, August 4, 2006

So top U.S. generals acknowledged yesterday that Iraq is close to civil war and congressional Democrats think they have their “gotcha” moment. How exactly does that exchange in Washington contribute to a more peaceful Iraq? The answer, obviously - it doesn’t.

Yes, it’s noteworthy when General John Abizaid, the top U.S. military commander in the Middle East, and Joint Chiefs Chairman Peter Pace acknowledge that sectarian violence in Iraq is as bad as it has ever been. Heck, even Defense Secretary Donald Rumsfeld gave up his staring contest with Congress long enough to attend the hearing and acknowledge violence is on the rise.

(Sort of tough to ignore, actually, when insurgents are detonating bombs on a Baghdad soccer field or kidnapping dozens of patrons at a Chamber of Commerce office at one time.)

But the encouraging news - and there was some, believe it or not - is that Abizaid and Pace also believe that civil war can be averted - provided the Iraqis want it to be so. In their best military-speak, both generals said civil war is possible - not probable.

“Shiite and Sunni are going to have to love their children more than they hate each other,” Pace said. “The weight of that must be on the Iraqi people and the Iraqi government.”

If Hillary Clinton & Co. want to use the candid testimony of the generals to further their political ends, so be it. We can only assume the generals will be busy working to avoid all-out civil war.