Weather blog: Latest from the forecasters Florida Today
Here are updates of forecasts and statements as Ernesto nears Florida. Check back frequently for new posts.
Local hurricane statement from NWS/MelbourneErnesto becomes a threat to east central Florida...
... New information...a Hurricane Watch has been extended north along the Atlantic Florida coast to New Smyrna Beach. An inland Hurricane Watch is also in effect for all east central Florida counties... except for Lake County where a tropical storm watch is in effect.
... Areas affected...this statement is for residents of east central Florida... including Martin... Saint Lucie... Okeechobee... Indian River... Brevard... Osceola... Orange... Seminole... Volusia... and lake counties.
... Watches/warnings...a Hurricane Watch is in effect along the Florida Atlantic coast from New Smyrna Beach southward... this affects Volusia... Brevard... Indian River... Saint Lucie... and Martin counties. Also... an inland Hurricane Watch is in effect for all east central Florida counties... except for Lake County where an inland Tropical Storm Warning is in effect.
... Storm information...at 11 am... the center of Tropical Storm Ernesto was located near latitude 20.3 north... longitude 75.7 west... or about 35 miles west northwest of Guantanamo Cuba. This is also about 475 miles southeast of Miami. Ernesto was moving toward the northwest near 10 mph... with this general motion expected to continue for the next 24 hours.
... Precautionary/preparedness actions...a Hurricane Watch means hurricane conditions are possible in the watch area within 36 hours. Based on experiences of the past two hurricane seasons... every home or business in east central Florida should have a comprehensive hurricane plan in place and be prepared to be self sufficient for 72 hours after a storm passes. There is much uncertainty in the future course and intensity of Ernesto. Now is the time to review hurricane plans and continue closely monitoring the progress of Ernesto. Be ready to implement your hurricane plans should warnings be issued by the National Weather Service for your County.
... Winds...although Ernesto is likely to experience some further weakening today as it moves over land... some strengthening is forecast as it moves north of Cuba out over the water once again later tonight. Hurricane force winds are forecast to overspread Martin and Saint Lucie counties by Wednesday at 55 to 75 mph... with locally higher gusts especially along the coast. Hurricane force winds of similar intensity are forecast to move north through the watch area Wednesday and Wednesday night. The potential for sustained hurricane force winds is highest along the coast... but inland counties are still at risk given the uncertainty in the track and with at least
a potential for hurricane force wind gusts.
... Storm surge and storm tide...the wind forecast results in strong onshore flow associated with the approach of Ernesto... with the potential for hurricane force winds to move out of South Florida increasing in Martin County first... then continuing northward toward Cape Canaveral. As a result... surge and tide waters may temporarily reach 4 to 5 feet bringing a moderate threat of coastal flooding to that area. North of Cape Canaveral... the threat is lower with the potential for surge and tide waters of 2 to 3 feet. Significant beach erosion is becoming a concern. Across Lake Okeechobee... the Current Lake level is 12.1 feet. On the current forecast track... a storm surge of 4 to 5 feet above Current Lake levels or a storm tide of 16 to 17 feet above mean sea level is possible. The surge would affect The Glades County shoreline Wednesday morning and gradually move along the South Shore of the lake from Moore Haven to Clewiston to Belle Glade as Ernesto moves north later on Wednesday. The surge would push toward the Eastern Shore from Belle Glade north to Port Mayaca once Ernesto is north of the lake Wednesday afternoon. If the center of Ernesto moves over the
lake the effect would be turbulent with high waves on top of the surge.
... Inland flooding...at this point... a Flood Watch has not been issued due to the uncertainty in track. Forecast rainfall amounts are expected to be around 4 to 8 inches... with locally higher amounts possible. Much will depend on the actual track of Ernesto according to the potential trajectory of its rainbands and precipitation core. However... at this point... the heaviest rain is expect closer to the coast. A Flood Watch will likely be issued for some areas of east central Florida by Tuesday morning.
... Tornadoes...historically speaking... the scenario associated with Ernesto prompts a moderate tornado threat mainly with the outer rainbands that rotate onshore. The greater threat will be in vicinity of the coast. The tornadoes are expected to be short-lived and likely the first hazard to arrive into the area.
... Marine...a Hurricane Watch is in effect for the east central Florida coastal waters north to New Smyrna Beach. Tropical storm conditions are possible as early as Tuesday night from Jupiter Inlet to Cocoa Beach... spreading northward into Wednesday north of Cocoa. Then... hurricane conditions are possible into Wednesday continuing Wednesday night and exiting the area Thursday morning. Mariners should stay abreast of the progress of Ernesto and be prepared to move to safe Harbor well in advance.
Tropical storm force winds expected Wednesday morningThe Brevard County Emergency Management unit is expected rough conditions to start Wednesday morning and continue until Wednesday night or Thursday morning. Here is part of the press release: Based on the current forecast track, Brevard County is expecting tropical storm force winds at 10:30 a.m. on Wednesday, and hurricane force winds at 4:30 p.m. Wednesday, with winds subsiding at midnight Wednesday night/Thursday morning. The Emergency Operations Center is currently at a Level 2 activation and is monitoring the storm situation. Residents are advised to review their family communications and evacuation plans, and to finalize their hurricane preparedness kits, making sure they have water, non-perishable food, batteries, flashlights and medical supplies to sustain them for 72 hours. They are also encouraged to begin clearing their property of lawn furniture, garbage cans, and other items that could potentially become hazards when picked up by the wind. This is not the time to trim trees and place yard waste at the curb for pickup.
Inland hurricane watch issued for areaThe National Weather Service has issued an inland hurricane watch for east-central Florida, which includes Brevard County. Here is the text of a portion of the statement: The National Weather Service in Melbourne has issued an inland hurricane watch, which is in effect through Wednesday evening, as the center of Ernesto approaches east central Florida. Sustained tropical storm force winds, 40 mph or greater, are forecast to spread northward across the region late Tuesday nightand early Wednesday morning. The strongest winds are expected during the day Wednesday, when hurricane force winds arepossible, especially across the coastal counties. Due to theforecast track being close to the Atlantic coast, winds farther inland may not be quite as strong. An inland hurricane watch is issued when a landfalling hurricaneis expected to spread hurricane force winds, 74 mph or greater, well inland during the next 24 to 36 hours.
Here is the long-range forecast for ErnestoThe storm was about 620 miles south-southeast of Melbourne early this afternoon. Current long-range forecasts have Ernesto as strong tropical storm Tuesday night as it approaches the Florida Keys. Ernesto is forecast to make landfall south of Miami on Wednesday morning. The storm is predicted to move north-northeast up the peninsula, passing near West Palm Beach as a Category 1 hurricane with sustained winds of 80 mph around 8 a.m. Wednesday. Then the center of Ernesto is forecast to move just east of Brevard County on Wednesday afternoon. At that point, the center will be over the Atlantic Ocean, the latest long-range forecast showed.
Latest forecast discussion from the National Hurricane CenterHere are some highlights from the forecast discussion: Some more weakening is likely before the center moves back over water to the north of Cuba. Once the center emerges over water, re-strengthening is likely in a favorable upper-level environment of weak northeasterly shear. The official intensity forecast is generally above the SHIPS guidance and close to the latest GFDL forecast...and calls for a category 1 hurricane approaching southeastern Florida. However it should be noted that there is limited skill in forecasting tropical cyclone intensity. A small upper-level low to the north-northwest of Ernesto may be imparting some northward component to the tropical cyclone's motion. Dynamical models indicate that the upper low will move westward and weaken. This should result in a leftward bend of the track in the near term. Global models indicate that the mid-tropospheric high pressure system over the southeastern United States will shift east-southeastward during the next couple of days as a trough moves in from the northwest. This would result in a northward turn of Ernesto. The official forecast track has been nudged just slightly eastward from the previous one...in good agreement with the current consensus of the dynamical track models.
By DAVID LARIMER
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