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Pentagon Gives Gloomy Iraq Report

By ROBERT BURNS
The Associated Press
Friday, September 1, 2006; 2:52 PM



WASHINGTON -- Sectarian violence is spreading in Iraq and the security problems have become more complex than at any time since the U.S. invasion in 2003, the Pentagon said Friday.

In a notably gloomy report to Congress, the Pentagon said illegal militias have become more entrenched, especially in Baghdad neighborhoods where they are seen as providers of both security and basic social services.

The report described a rising tide of sectarian violence, fed in part by interference from neighboring Iran and Syria and driven by a "vocal minority" of religious extremists who oppose the idea of a democratic Iraq.

Death squads targeting mainly Iraqi civilians are a growing problem, heightening the risk of civil war, it said.

"Death squads and terrorists are locked in mutually reinforcing cycles of sectarian strife," the report said, adding that the Sunni-led insurgency "remains potent and viable" even as it is overshadowed by the sect-on-sect killing.

"Conditions that could lead to civil war exist in Iraq, specifically in and around Baghdad, and concern about civil war within the Iraqi civilian population has increased in recent months," the report said. It is the latest in a series of quarterly reports required by Congress to assess economic, political and security progress.

A growing number of members of Congress are calling for either a shift in the Bush administration's Iraq strategy or a timetable for beginning a substantial withdrawal of American forces. Although administration officials say progress is being made in Iraq, U.S. commanders have increased U.S. troop levels by about 13,000 over the past five weeks, to 140,000, mainly due to increased violence in the Baghdad area.

In response to the Pentagon's report Friday, the Senate's top Democrat, Harry Reid of Nevada, said it showed the Bush administration is "increasingly disconnected from the facts on the ground in Iraq."

"It is time for a new direction to end the war in Iraq, win the war on terror, and give the American people the real security they deserve," Reid said.

Col. Thomas Vail, commander of a 101st Airborne brigade operating in the mostly Shiite areas of eastern Baghdad, told reporters at the Pentagon on Friday that an intensified effort to root out insurgents and quell sectarian violence in the capital is bearing fruit, leading to a decrease in sectarian murders in recent days.

"They understand a big stick," he said, referring to a bigger U.S. and Iraqi force confronting militias and others responsible for violence like the barrage of coordinated attacks across eastern Baghdad that Iraqi police said killed at least 64 people and wounded more than 286 within a half hour Thursday.

Peter Rodman, the assistant secretary of defense for international security affairs, in a separate session with reporters, said that despite progress this summer in reviving the Iraqi economy, raising electricity production and increasing the number of trained Iraqi troops, the security conditions have deteriorated.

The report covered the period since the Iraqi government led by Prime Minister Nouri al-Malaki was seated May 20.

From that date through Aug. 11, the average number of attacks per week against Americans and Iraqis was 792, up 24 percent from the previous period of Feb. 11 to May 19. The 792 figure was the highest for any counting period since the war began. The previous high was 641 in the Feb. 11 to May 19 period.

"The last quarter, as you know has been rough," Rodman said. "The levels of violence are up and the sectarian quality of the violence is particularly acute and disturbing."

That assessment was tempered by a degree of optimism that the Iraqi government _ with support from U.S. troops _ will succeed in quelling the sectarian strife.

Optimism among ordinary Iraqis, however, has declined, the 63-page report said.

When asked if they believe "things will be better" in the future, the percentage of Iraqis responding positively has dropped over the past year _ whether they were asked to look ahead six months, one year or five years _ according to polling data cited in the report.

"The security situation is currently at its most complex state since the initiation of Operation Iraqi Freedom," the report said, using the U.S. military's name for the war that was launched in March 2003 to topple Saddam Hussein.

© 2006 The Associated Press

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America Is Losing Iraq: Is Anybody Watching?
Danny Schechter, Arab News

In the world of mainstream media, there is always something “breaking.” Who wants to hear about old news when there are so many new disasters to keep up with?

As a new hurricane threatens, the watch is on and reporters get out their storm gear. JonBenet is still getting massive coverage, and Tom Cruise is back in the news — always good for a story or three.

And this is the week of the Katrina anniversary and every news organization in America is doing specials and recycling footage.

But there is one word missing, and that word is, class?

Iraq!

Watch the Katrina specials and see how many references there are to the Louisiana and Mississippi National Guards bringing “freedom” to Iraq when they should have been helping with relief and rescue in their hometowns.

How many references will there be to the costs of the war compared to the costs of the monies allocated to reconstruction but not yet sent or spent?

One recent report placed the costs of the war at $1.75 billion per week. The cost of Iraq war calculator is set to reach $318.5 billion on Sept. 30, 2006. With the skyrocketing costs of the war in Iraq, worldwide military spending soared.

Wouldn’t you think that that alone would have our news media all over the story?

If you think that, think again.

Flashback to March 2003 and remember the 24-hour war-a-thon with round-the-clock coverage and all the war all the time. Remember all the “experts” who told us how we were going to “go in and get it over with.” Remember President Bush’s “Mission Accomplished” speech. It felt so great to be American when we seemed to be winning.

And then look at most of our news reporting today. What do you see just three short years later?

Iraq has been reduced to a litany of bloody incidents and body counts. For many, it is both boring and hard to follow, and so they tune out. Sunnis, Shiites, Kurds, terrorists, insurgents, private militias? Whatever happened to “us” and “them?” No wonder that when the JonBenet Ramsey story resurfaced the TV channels flocked to it like flies to a flame. When I worked for network TV, we had a term for stories we lost interest in. We would say, “Been there, done that!”

In the nation’s newsrooms, the triage has begun — with Iraq sounding more and more like something that happened long ago. Get ready for more History Channel specials and somber retrospectives that help us to believe that we can be forgiven for thinking of the Iraq war in the past tense.

Besides, covering Iraq is so dangerous.

Few reporters want to take so many risks for so little “face time” on TV. And there are hardly any “positive” stories to report — even though the conservative media keep beating the bushes for them. Their latest ploy, now that Zarqawi and Al-Qaeda are supposedly out of action, is to blame it all on Iran. In that way, they take the US off the hook and start getting us ready for the next war.

Meanwhile, the death count rises with the Iraqi summer heat.

To read this whole sordid story in gripping black and white, check out Sheldon Rampton and John Stauber’s new book “The Best War Ever.” It is filled with facts but reads like fiction because it’s hard to believe that Americans have put with this abysmal, disastrous failure. All the flag waving and 9/11 cheerleading can’t put this tragic Humpty Dumpty together again.

And part of the reason is that much of our media has been asleep at the switch, still taking President Bush’s and Defense Secretary Rumsfeld’s pronouncements at face value. Rumsfeld visited Baghdad last month and, with a straight face, talked about the “great progress” made since last year. How many times can that broken, out-of-tune record be played?

Thankfully, it’s been several months since Vice President Cheney has re-declared that the insurgency is in its “last throes,” and it appears that “winning the hearts and minds of ordinary Iraqis” has been dropped from the official Whitehouse list of talking points.

Isn’t time for the networks to pull the plug on presidential press conferences and Bushian blather like they have on political party conventions? If there was ever a case for admitting the emperor has no clothes, this is it. Who in the press corps(e) will have the courage to turn their backs on the Rumsfeld Comedy Hour once and for all?

Now there are some media outlets beginning to draw these lessons and tell the truth.

The NY Times which shamefully did so much to sell the war is now returning to its senses with more stories than can no longer be suppressed of setbacks in the field and corruption at home.

But even it seems more caught up with “perception” and image” stories than connecting the dots about demoralized and ineffective military effort and the continuing erosion of US influence and “progress” in a country devolving into a civil war US policies contributed to — without accountability.

Many Democrats are starting to hammer at the incompetence of those fighting the war without being willing to admit that the whole pre-emptive adventure is as flawed as the Vietnam War before it.

So here we are in the last week of the summer of ‘06. Much of America is on vacation along with the news media that seems to have withdrawn from Iraq before the government has the guts to.

Now is the time for all good news consumers to come to the aid of their media and demand coverage and courage to stop the bloodletting and save what’s left of our national honor. We need to find the news that is there to be found and keep the Iraq war issue alive.

— News dissector Danny Schechter edits Mediachannel.org. He wrote “When News Lies” about Iraq media coverage (Newsdissector.org/store.htm.) This article comes from The Smirking Chimp. Comments to dissector@mediachannel.org

http://www.defensenews.com/story.php?F=2075096&C=america

Posted 09/01/06 11:49Print this story Pentagon: Conditions for Civil War Exist in Iraq

By WILL DUNHAM, REUTERS


Conditions that could lead to a civil war exist in Iraq, the Pentagon said in a new report on Sept. 1, as the "core conflict" has changed into one pitting Sunni Muslims against Shi’ites, with the Sunni Arab insurgency overshadowed.
The Pentagon’s congressionally-mandated report provided a sober assessment of the situation in Iraq over the past three months, saying attacks increased by 15 percent over the prior three months and casualties among Iraqis surged 51 percent.
"Conditions that could lead to civil war exist in Iraq," the report stated, adding that concern about civil war has increased within the Iraqi civilian population.
"Nevertheless, the current violence is not a civil war, and movement toward a civil war can be prevented," added the report, which said the security environment was at its most complex state since the U.S.-led invasion in March 2003 that toppled President Saddam Hussein.
Rising sectarian fighting between minority Sunnis, who controlled Iraq under Saddam, and the majority Shiites, who are ascending in power after decades of oppression, defines the emerging nature of violence in Iraq, the report stated.
The release of the report comes as the Bush administration pursues a campaign to bolster sagging U.S. public support, with Defense Secretary Donald Rumsfeld and others attacking critics two months before U.S. congressional elections.

Growing doubts in U.S. about military strategy
Doubts about the war on terrorism are growing. Most people worry that the cost in blood and money may be too high, and they don't think al-Qaida kingpin Osama bin Laden will ever be caught, an AP-Ipsos poll found.
http://www.msnbc.msn.com/id/14618513/from/ET/

Pentagon Issues Grim Iraq Report

WASHINGTON-"Conditions that could lead to civil war exist,"
military analysts tell Congress. Military and civilian deaths now
exceed 3,000 a month. By Julian E. Barnes.
http://email.latimes.com/cgi-bin1/DM/y/e7r...Io30G2B0HpgZ0EE

http://news.yahoo.com/s/afp/20060901/pl_afp/usiraqpolitics

Iraq on brink of civil war: Pentagon report Fri Sep 1, 6:31 PM ET



WASHINGTON (AFP) - The conflict in Iraq has all the makings of a civil war, which can nonetheless be avoided, according to a US Defense Department report.

"Conditions that could lead to civil war exist in Iraq. Nevertheless, the current violence is not a civil war, and movement toward civil war can be prevented," said the quarterly Pentagon report to Congress.

"Concern about civil war within the Iraqi civilian population and among some defense analysts has increased in recent months.

"The security situation is currently at its most complex state since the initiation of Operation Iraq Freedom," the report said.

In the past three months, "the average number of weekly attacks increased 15 percent over the previous reporting-period average, and Iraqi casualties increased by 51 percent compared to the previous quarter," it said, noting most of the violence occurred in Baghdad.

Release of the report on Iraq, where 138,000 US troops are fighting, comes as the administration of President George W. Bush launches a new spin campaign to put a better face on the increasingly unpopular war before November legislative elections.

Bush recently raised the stakes of the ideological war over Iraq and flatly refused to withdraw, likening the war in Iraq to the battle against Nazism and and fascism.

"We're not leaving so long as I'm the president. That would be a huge mistake," said the president, whose job approval ratings have sunk partly because of the war.

Vice President Dick Cheney, Defense Secretary Donald Rumsfeld, and US Secretary of State Condoleezza Rice have already fired the campaign's opening salvos, giving speeches accusing Bush's critics of failing to understand the terrorist threat to the United States.

Reaction from opposition Democrats was quick.

"The Pentagons new report today indicates that President Bush, Vice President Cheney and Secretary Rumsfelds speeches are increasingly disconnected from the facts on the ground in Iraq," Senate Democratic Leader Harry Reid said in a statement.

"Even the Pentagon acknowledges Iraq is tipping into civil war," he said.

Pentagon: Conditions exist for civil war in Iraq
Conditions that could lead to a civil war exist in Iraq, reflecting the "most complex" security challenges since the U.S. invasion in 2003, the Pentagon said Friday in a report to Congress.
http://www.msnbc.msn.com/id/14622992/from/ET/

http://news.yahoo.com/s/ap/20060902/ap_on_...i_ea/iraq_kurds

Kurdistan president replaces Iraqi flag Fri Sep 1, 9:25 PM ET

SULAIMANIYAH, Iraq - Kurdistan president Massoud Barzani has ordered the Iraqi national flag to be replaced with the Kurdish one in his northern autonomous region in what appeared to be another move toward more self-rule in the north, local officials said Friday.

The order was issued Thursday and applies to the Kurdish region, said Beshraw Ahmed, a spokesman for the Sulaimaniyah municipality.

According to Azad Jundiyanim, a member of President Jalal Talabani's Patriotic Union of Kurdistan in Sulaimaniyah, Barzani issued a formal message asking for the Iraqi flag to be lowered. The message was also broadcast on Kurdish radio.

Iraq's northern Kurdish region has slowly been gaining more autonomy since the 2003 U.S.-led invasion of Iraq.

On May 7, its parliament in the northern city of Irbil unified the Kurdish region's two long-standing administrations, one headed by Barzani's Kurdistan Democratic Party and the other by Talabani's Patriotic Union of Kurdistan.

Kurds had until then enjoyed self-rule in three provinces of the north but under the separate administrations.

Sunni Arabs fear that Kurds are pushing for secession under the nation's new federal system, a step which, if imitated by the Shiite majority in the oil-rich south, would leave Sunnis with little more than date groves and sand.

The Kurdish region had been out of Saddam Hussein's control since the 1991 Gulf War, when the Kurds set up their autonomous region under the protection of U.S. and British warplanes. After the U.S.-led invasion, Kurdistan was the only region that did not witness major changes.

Iraq's new constitution recognizes Kurdish self-rule and provides a legal mechanism for other areas to govern themselves but within the Iraqi state

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Iraqi Casualties Increase by 1,000 a Month
By Julian E. Barnes
Times Staff Writer

2:24 PM PDT, September 1, 2006

WASHINGTON — In a dismal assessment, the Pentagon reported to Congress today that the number of attacks and civilian deaths in Iraq have risen sharply in recent months — with casualties increasing by 1,000 a month — as sectarian violence has engulfed larger areas of the country.

The quarterly report, based on new government figures, shows that the number of attacks in Iraq over the last four months increased 15% and the number of Iraqi casualties grew by 51%. In the last three months, the report says, the number of deaths and injuries increased by 1,000 people a month over the previous quarter — to more than 3,000 each month.

Over a longer time horizon, the spike is even more grim. The number of weekly attacks has increased from just over 400 in the spring of 2004 to nearly 800 during recent weeks. And the number of daily casualties has increased from just under 30 a day in 2004 to more than 110 a day in recent weeks.

"Extremists seeking to stoke ethno-sectarian strife have increasingly focused their efforts on civilians, inciting a cycle of retribution killings and driving civilian casualties to new highs," the report says.

The report says that Iraq is not in a civil war, but acknowledged that Iraqi civilians are increasingly worried about such a conflict. It reports that Iraqis are optimistic about the future, but cautions that the positive outlook is eroding. Stopping the ethnic and sectarian violence is the "most pressing immediate goal" of the American military and Iraqi government, it says.

The report comes amid a new effort by President Bush and his administration to shore up sagging public support for the Iraq war in advance of the fall elections, but may do little to help the president's case. Administration officials have tried to portray Iraq as the front line in the war on terrorism and have described the effort as part of a larger struggle against Islamic extremists. However, by putting hard numbers to the perception that Iraq is increasingly chaotic, the new Pentagon report stands to further undermine support for the administration's strategy in Iraq.

The violence in Iraq, according to the report, cannot be attributed to a unified or organized insurgency. Instead, violence is the result of a complex interplay between international terrorists, local insurgents, sectarian death squads, organized militias and criminal groups. The armed militias and other sectarian groups are contesting integrated neighborhoods in a bid to expand their area of influence, the report says.

"This is a pretty sober report," said Peter Rodman, the assistant secretary of Defense for international security. "The last quarter has been rough. The level of violence is up. And the sectarian quality of the violence is particularly acute and disturbing."

In arguing that Iraq is not yet in a full-scale civil war, Defense officials pointed out that Iraqi security forces remain loyal to the central government and that no rival government has emerged.

"History tells us in many cases you do not realize it until it is staring you in the face, but there are important things that have not happened," said Rear Adm. William Sullivan, the vice director for strategic plans and policy on the Pentagon's joint staff. "The sectarian violence is worrisome We are not blind to the possibility that this could continue down the wrong path."

Sullivan said he believed that despite the rise in killings, the U.S. was still making progress.

"The violence has increased, but it is primarily Iraqi-on-Iraqi violence," he said.

Although military officials in Iraq repeatedly have emphasized that the majority of recent violence is concentrated in Baghdad, the new report also says that violence has increased in Diyala, Mosul and Kirkuk. The sectarian violence that has enveloped Baghdad, the report says, is now spreading to those cities.

"Any spread of sectarian violence is cause for concern," Sullivan said.

The report says part of the reason for the increased violence is that the attacks on civilians have driven people to "endorse extremist actions on their behalf" — lending their support to the insurgent and militia groups in order to provide security for their neighborhoods. That dynamic is undermining the government's reconciliation efforts and ability to provide security.

According to the report, Muqtada Sadr's Al Mahdi army militia has achieved a "measure of tolerance" from Iraq's new government. But the report says that violence between the Al Madhi army and the Iraqi army is frequent, and says the militia receives support from Iran.

One key indicator of full-scale violence identified in previous Pentagon reports is the number of forced displacements of people and households. Although the U.S. military has been skeptical about reports of large numbers of displaced people in the past, the report quotes a U.N. estimate that 137,862 people have been pushed out of their homes since the Samarra mosque bombing in February.

The mosque bombing is widely seen as setting off the current cycle of sectarian violence. Sunnis allied with Abu Musab Zarqawi, the terrorist leader slain in June in a U.S. attack, were blamed for destroying the mosque, a holy site for Shiites in a largely Sunni city.

The report is optimistic about the new plan to increase security by promoting economic growth, but provides no numbers about the results of the renewed security initiative that began in earnest last month.

Rodman cited as a positive development the report's finding that the Iraqi security forces continue to grow in size and training, with the number of areas in which Iraqi army battalions have taken the lead in providing security expanding between October 2005 and August 2006. He said the number of Iraqi army battalions has increased from 23 in October 2005 to 85 today.

Also, major changes in the nation's police system are underway to address problems and deficiencies. The number of police battalions has decreased from 6 to 2. Last month, military officials said they had been forced to dissolve some national police battalions because they were loyal to militias, not to the central government. The report says public confidence in the national police has decreased and the program is being reformed.

"Unprofessional and, at times, criminal behavior has been attributed to certain units in the national police," the report says.

In its last report to Congress in May, Pentagon officials expressed hope that rapid political progress would earn confidence from Iraqis and blunt the increase in violence. However, delays in forming a new government under Prime Minister Nouri Maliki have quickly undermined those hopes.

Rodman said had the Iraqi government been able to form more quickly after the December election, the sectarian violence that rose from the Samarra mosque bombing might have been dampened.

The delay in forming a government really hurt, it was a partial vacuum," he said.

"For years people like Zarqawi have been aiming at this, trying to foment civil war," Rodman said. "In Samarra they hit pay dirt, in a sense. The system has been shaken by it."

The report notes that the violence has not subsided since the killing of Zarqawi in June. Rodman said although the U.S. has inflicted serious blows on his organization, Al Qaeda in Iraq, the group's role was not decisive.

"The nature of the conflict has changed," Rodman said. "And maybe Zarqawi's legacy was the Samarra bombing, the effects of which have lived after him."

Copyright 2006 Los Angeles Times