FOUR MORE YEARS?: AS CIVILIAN CASUALTIES CLIMB, THE U.S. MAKES PLANS TO KEEP 140,000 TROOPS IN IRAQ UNTIL 2010. WILL THE PUBLIC IN EITHER COUNTRY PERMIT IT? - JUAN COLE (SALON, OCTOBER 12): Given what polls in Iraq are telling us about the unpopularity of U.S. troops in the country, given what public health experts are telling us about the inability of those troops to stem the growing tide of sectarian killings, and given the waning support for the whole Iraq enterprise among the American public, the rationale for keeping so many ground troops in Iraq has come increasingly into question.
http://www.salon.com/opinion/feature/2006/...vels/print.html

WHEN 'STAYING THE COURSE' MEANS DEFEAT: I. IRAQ - FRED BRANFMAN (HUFFINGTON POST, OCTOBER 12): Mr. Bush's policies of seeking to maintain high U.S. troop levels and continue war-making in Iraq are harming America's national security interests and helping those who wish to do us harm.
http://www.huffingtonpost.com/fred-branfma...html?view=print

CO-DEPENDENCY IN IRAQ - CHARLES PENA, (ANTIWAR.COM, OCTOBER 11): The Bush administration continues to insist that Iraq is the central front in the war on terrorism and that we must stay the course. Apparently, that's exactly what al-Qaeda wants. The only way to break the co-dependency is for the United States to exit Iraq.
http://www.antiwar.com/pena/?articleid=9831

BUSH CREATED A MESS IN IRAQ. HERE'S HOW TO CLEAN IT UP: IT'S TIME TO PULL OUR TROOPS OUT OF IRAQ - AND TO HOLD OUR LEADERS ACCOUNTABLE - HELENA COBBAN (CHRISTIAN SCIENCE MONITOR, OCTOBER 12/COMMON DREAMS): http://www.commondreams.org/views06/1012-23.htm

UK PRESENCE "WORSENING IRAQ SITUATION" - STEPHEN FIDLER, JAMES BLITZ, GUY DINMORE (FINANCIAL TIMES, OCTOBER 13): Britain's new army chief said UK forces should leave Iraq soon because they are making the security problem there worse.
http://www.ft.com/cms/s/a00ac3d8-5a4a-11db...00779e2340.html

BREAKING UP AIN'T HARD TO DO: JAMES BAKER PREPARES THE EXITS IN IRAQ - MICHAEL YOUNG (REASON, OCTOBER 12): Baker doesnt want to "cut and run," but there is an awful lot of cutting, and not a little hurried walking, in his thinking.
http://reason.com/hod/my101206.shtml

BEYOND THE COUP RUMORS, OPTIONS FOR IRAQ - DAVID IGNATIUS (WASHINGTON POST, OCTOBER 13): The best chance for a breakthrough that could stabilize Iraq would be part of a broader settlement of Middle East issues.
http://www.washingtonpost.com/wp-dyn/conte...1201669_pf.html

THE PRESIDENT'S IRAQ CHALLENGE -- AND OURS - EDITORIAL (WASHINGTON TIMES, OCTOBER 13): On Wednesday, President Bush delivered what in our view was the clearest and most specific presidential articulation of why the United States cannot cut and run from Iraq -- and what aid it would lend the terrorists if we did.
http://www.washtimes.com/functions/print.p...12-092911-9967r

RAJIV CHANDRASEKARAN REPLIES TO DAN SENOR - JUAN COLE (INFORMED COMMENT: THOUGHTS ON THE MIDDLE EAST, HISTORY, AND RELIGION, OCTOBER 12): "There were people at the State Department who wanted the same sort of open-ended occupation that Bremer favored, but there were plenty of others who wanted a shorter, more modest, Iraqi-led process that didn't involve handing the keys over to Chalabi and his ilk."
http://www.juancole.com/
(scroll down link for item)

TALIBAN RISING - CHRISTIAN PARENTI (NATION, OCTOBER 12): The new pattern of political violence is seen as the "Iraqization" of the Afghan insurgency, which some fear could also lead to an Iraq-style meltdown or ethnically based fragmentation.
http://www.thenation.com/doc/20061030/parenti_video
PAID SUBSCRIPTION

AFGHANISTAN FIVE YEARS LATER: CHARTING THE RECONSTRUCTION -- A STATISTICAL EXAMINATION OF THE PROGRESS IN THE REBUILDING OF AFGHANISTAN SINCE THE TALIBAN'S FALL (CHRISTIAN SCIENCE MONITOR, OCTOBER 12)
http://www.csmonitor.com/2006/1012/p12s01-wosc.html

GIVE IRAN THE BOMB: IT MIGHT MAKE THE REGIME MORE PLIABLE - BORIS JOHNSON (DAILY TELEGRAPH, OCTOBER 10): Even the mullahs are not mad enough to take on a country -- Israel -- that could turn their desert into molten glass. (Boris Johnson is MP for Henley.)
http://www.telegraph.co.uk/opinion/main.jh...MC-new_12102006

HOW NOT TO HANDLE IRAN'S NUKE ASPIRATIONS: LEARNING FROM THE NORTH KOREA FOUL-UP - EHSAN AHRARI (ANTIWAR.COM, OCTOBER 12): The most significant lesson from the North Korean imbroglio is that the United States should take all diplomatic endeavors to soothe the legitimate security-related concerns and fears of the current Iranian government.
http://www.antiwar.com/orig/ahrari.php?articleid=9840

ARMITAGE KIM: HOW TO TALK TO A DICTATOR - DANIEL FREEDMAN (NATIONAL REVIEW, OCTOBER 12): The only good news is that North Korea and Iran don't yet have the means of firing a nuclear weapon. The bad news is that with every moment of inaction that threat becomes more likely.
http://article.nationalreview.com/?q=MjhjZ...DlhOGY5OTdjNTc=

MUTUALLY ASSURED DISRUPTION - DAVID FRUM (NEW YORK TIMES, OCTOBER 11): When negotiation fails, as it has failed in North Korea and is failing in Iran, rogue regimes must be made to suffer for their dangerous nuclear ambitions.
http://www.nytimes.com/2006/10/10/opinion/...agewanted=print

WHAT WILL STOP NORTH KOREA - CHARLES KRAUTHAMMER (WASHINGTON POST, OCTOBER 13): With North Korea there is no going back. But Iran is not there yet. One rogue country is tolerable because it can be held accountable. Two rogue countries guarantees undeterrable and therefore inevitable nuclear terrorism.
http://www.washingtonpost.com/wp-dyn/conte...1201668_pf.html

THE SQUEEZE ON NORTH KOREA - JIM HOAGLAND (WASHINGTON POST, OCTOBER 12): Treasury's sophisticated efforts to deny gangsters in North Korea and Iran access to global capital should not be abandoned because of the nuclear bluster from Pyongyang and Tehran.
http://www.washingtonpost.com/wp-dyn/conte...1101599_pf.html

A TNR ONLINE SYMPOSIUM: NUCLEAR NORTH KOREA - NEW REPUBLIC (OCTOBER 13): The Swan Song of Deterrence? by Peter Beinart; Lesser of Two Evils by J. Peter Scoblic; The Persian Menace by Lawrence F. Kaplan; Choose the Right Goals by Michael Levi.
http://www.tnr.com/docprint.mhtml?i=w06100...orthkorea101306

THE DEAR LEADER'S LITTLE NUKE: WAS NORTH KOREA'S LOW-YIELD TEST EXPLOSION REALLY A FAILURE? MAYBE NOT - MICHAEL GOLDFARB (WEEKLY STANDARD, OCTOBER 12): North Koreans could be on the cusp of producing a weapon with an explosive force that would be measured in megatons rather that kilotons.
http://www.weeklystandard.com/Content/Publ...6ksckh.asp?pg=1

BUSH GETS BUM RAP - YEARN HONG CHOI (WASHINGTON TIMES, OCTOBER 13): President Bush deserves credit for North Korea policy.
http://www.washtimes.com/functions/print.p...12-092914-7659r

JONAH GOLDBERG: WHEN MULTILATERALISM FALLS SHORT: NORTH KOREA BLUNDER PROVES THAT SOMETIMES, IT'S OK TO GO IT ALONE EVEN WHEN EVERYONE ELSE WANTS TO NEGOTIATE - JONAH GOLDBERG (LOS ANGELES TIMES, OCTOBER 13): "What worries me most about how the hard case of North Korea is making for bad precedent is that so many people see Pyongyang's intransigence as proof of the need for the whole international community to work together."
http://www.latimes.com/news/opinion/la-oe-...inion-rightrail

DPRK NUCLEAR DANGER - ANAND KUMAR (WASHINGTON TIMES, OCTOBER 13): If the international community is seriously interested in restraining North Korea, sooner or later it will have to think of some tough measures, or else the DPRK regime could go out of control.
http://www.washtimes.com/functions/print.p...12-092912-2468r

KOREAN TREMOR - OPINION (BALTIMORE SUN, OCTOBER 10): It's evident that the White House has done a great deal to push North Korea and Iran into their current positions but that doesn't make it any easier to go forward from here. Staking out as much common ground as possible with China would be a good way to start.
http://www.baltimoresun.com/news/opinion/b...inion-headlines

ONLY CHINA, NOT U.S., CAN REIN IN N. KOREA - PETER NAVARRO (CHICAGO TRIBUNE, OCTOBER 12)
http://www.chicagotribune.com/news/opinion...ncommentary-hed

CRASHING THE NUCLEAR CLUB - ANTHONY H. CORDESMAN (BOSTON GLOBE, AUGUST 11): The United States should work with its friends and allies to use every diplomatic option to roll back North Korea's nuclear and missile efforts. The United States should not abandon military options.
http://www.boston.com/news/globe/editorial...ar_club?mode=PF

SOLVING THE KOREAN STALEMATE, ONE STEP AT A TIME - JIMMY CARTER (NEW YORK TIMES, OCTOBER 11): What must be avoided is to leave a beleaguered nuclear nation convinced that it is permanently excluded from the international community, its existence threatened, its people suffering horrible deprivation and its hard-liners in total control of military and political policy. (Jimmy Carter, the 39th president, is the founder of the Carter Center and the winner of the 2002 Nobel Peace Prize.)
http://www.nytimes.com/2006/10/11/opinion/...agewanted=print

TALKING WITH THE MONSTERS - NICHOLAS D. KRISTOF (NEW YORK TIMES, OCTOBER 10): If theres one overriding lesson from North Korea's apparent nuclear test, its this: We need to negotiate directly even with hostile and brutal regimes.
http://select.nytimes.com/2006/10/10/opini...agewanted=print
PAID SUBSCRIPTION

PYONGYANG 1, BUSH 0 - JOHN FEFFER (ANTIWAR.COM, OCTOBER 11): It's time for the Bush administration to make up for a half-decade of failed policies by talking seriously with Pyongyang, both bilaterally and multilaterally.
http://www.antiwar.com/orig/feffer.php?articleid=9833

US NO-TALKS POLICY COMES UNDER FIRE: NORTH KOREA'S REPORTED NUCLEAR TEST HAS RENEWED CALLS FOR CHANGING DIPLOMATIC COURSE - HOWARD LAFRANCHI (CHRISTIAN SCIENCE MONITOR, OCTOBER 13)
http://www.csmonitor.com/2006/1013/p01s03-usfp.html

NORTH KOREA EXPOSES OUR PAPER ARSENAL - WILLIAM M. ARKIN (WASHINGTONPOST.COM, OCTOBER 12):. Don't the events in North Korea show that the public assumption of Bush contingency plans for everything is false and exaggerated?
http://blog.washingtonpost.com/earlywarnin...our_arsena.html

WEST MUST TAKE ACTION TO STOP RUSSIA'S SLIDE - SVANTE E. CORNELL (BALTIMORE SUN, OCTPOBER 12): The West must first realize that the 15-year-old policy of appeasing Russia and seeking to integrate it has failed.
http://www.baltimoresun.com/news/opinion/o...-oped-headlines

PROTECTING OTHER ANNAS IN RUSSIA - MONITOR'S VIEW (CHRISTIAN SCIENCE MONITOR, OCTOBER 13): Russia's dwindling human rights and other activists need support.
http://www.csmonitor.com/2006/1013/p08s02-comv.html

THE PRICE OF RUSSIA'S 'DICTATORSHIP OF LAW' - ETHAN S. BURGER (CHRISTIAN SCIENCE MONITOR, OCTOBER 12): For Russia to attract both domestic and foreign investors, its legal and corporate governance must become more transparent and accountable.
http://www.csmonitor.com/2006/1012/p09s01-coop.html

A FUNDAMENTAL RIGHT IN DANGER - SCOT LEHIGH (BOSTON GLOBE, OCTOBER 12): By voting to deny detainees the right to mount a vigorous challenge to their detention, Congress has betrayed our precious legal heritage and set a troubling precedent that could someday come back to hurt our own soldiers.
http://www.boston.com/news/globe/editorial..._danger?mode=PF

A SPLENDID ACHIEVEMENT: GEORGE BUSH SHOULD BE CONGRATULATED - HE HAS SURELY EARNED THE RIGHT TO JOIN THE RANKS OF DESPOTS - TERRY JONES (GUARDIAN OCTOBER 10): "Dear President Bush ... It is with great pleasure that we in the World League of Despots note that you have now appropriated to yourself all the powers of arbitrary arrest and torture that Saddam once enjoyed. You are now one of us. Congratulations!"
http://www.guardian.co.uk/comment/story/0,,1891457,00.html

DO WE HAVE A STRATEGY IN THE WAR?: YES, AND A MULTIFACETED ONE, AT THAT - VICTOR DAVIS HANSON (NATIONAL REVIEW, OCTOBER 12): The uncertainty is not whether the United States has a sound strategy in this long struggle against savage enemies of the Dark Ages -- we have many wise ones -- but rather whether we still have the will or the desire to see the war through to the bitter end.
http://article.nationalreview.com/?q=ZDIxN...zRhNjY0YzY5ZWU=

MAN CHARGED WITH TREASON IN TERROR WAR: CALIF. NATIVE SEEN IN PROPAGANDA TAPES FOR AL QAEDA - DAN EGGEN (BOSTON GLOBE, OCTOBER 12): A California native who has appeared in Al Qaeda propaganda videos has been indicted for treason, making him the first American to be charged with that crime in a half-century, the Justice Department announced yesterday.
http://www.boston.com/news/nation/articles...ror_war?mode=PF

AMERICANS LOVE TORTURE - BILL MAHER (HUFFINGTON POST, OCTOBER 12): How can you expect a nation to abide by the Geneva Conventions when 80 percent of our teenagers spend their idle hours playing ultra-gory video games?
http://www.huffingtonpost.com/bill-maher/a...re_b_31525.html

Israeli occupation forces kill 22 Palestinians in 48 hours:

An Israeli air raid on the occupied Gaza Strip killed two Palestinian militants Saturday as the Jewish state showed no let-up in its pounding of the territory that has seen 22 people killed in barely 48 hours.
http://www.thenews.com.pk/update_detail.asp?id=11253

Number of children killed by Israeli occupation troops doubles:

The number of Palestinian children who have already been killed this year in the West Bank and Gaza Strip, almost double the number for the whole of 2005, according to the United Nations Children's Fund
http://tinyurl.com/yedqhp

Hamas warn against coup attempts during rise in Israeli violence:

The Hamas movement has confirmed that the Israeli escalation is part of the plan aimed at bypassing the Palestinian election results which brought the movement to power.
http://tinyurl.com/ybhw5u

Hamas: US working to topple our gov't:

Group officials enraged over report that Americans will transfer USD 42 million to Fatah in order to strengthen movement. 'Financing aimed at overturning results of democratic elections in Palestinian Authority
http://www.ynetnews.com/articles/0,7340,L-3314752,00.html

UK NGOs call for Israel arms embargo:

A London based non-governmental organization, The Campaign Against Arms Trade (CAAT), has launched a campaign calling for an arms embargo on Israel, accusing the British government of "complicity in the occupation."
http://tinyurl.com/ybwzke

Israel war crime charge roils Canada politics:

Leading candidate to head Canada's opposition Liberal Party says Israel committed war crime when it bombarded Lebanese village of Qana in July
http://www.ynetnews.com/articles/0,7340,L-3314655,00.html

Iran should also face sanctions, Israel says :

Israel's ambassador to the United Nations urged the Security Council on Sunday to take tough measures against Iran for its nuclear program in the wake of North Korea's declaring it had tested a nuclear bomb.
http://www.iht.com/articles/2006/10/15/news/sanctions.php


Olmert: Iranian nukes likely to end up in Hizbullah's hands:

Prime Minister Ehud Olmert said Sunday that Iran poses a strategic threat to Israel.
http://www.ynetnews.com/articles/0,7340,L-3315144,00.html

"Why Not Let Them Hate Us as long as They Fear Us?" http://www.mepc.org/whats/whynot.asp

"From Mao to Now" http://www.sais-jhu.edu/pubaffairs/media_e...eman_101106.pdf

Scott Ritter on "Target Iran

The Truth About the White House’s Plans for Regime Change”
Audio interview

Former UN Weapons Inspector Scott Ritter: “The path that the United States is currently embarked on regarding Iran is a path that will inevitably lead to war. Such a course of action will make even the historical mistake we made in Iraq pale by comparison.”

Click to listen
http://www.informationclearinghouse.info/article15312.htm

===
Voting against nuclear war with Iran

By Jorge Hirsch

The outcome of the November election is likely to determine whether or not the US goes to war with Iran before President Bush leaves office. For multiple reasons recounted below such war will with very high probability include the US use of tactical nuclear weapons. In casting or not casting a vote in November, each of us will contribute to determine events of potential consequences immensely larger than local taxes, illegal immigration or even the Iraq war.
http://www.informationclearinghouse.info/article15318.htm

===
America Moves Toward War with Iran

By William R. Polk

After careful study of recent moves and statements by the Bush Administration, I have concluded that there is at least a 10% chance of an American attack on Iran before the November 7 Congressional elections and about a 90% chance before the administration’s end in 2008.
http://www.informationclearinghouse.info/article15313.htm

CRITICS OF PARTITIONING IRAQ ERR AT GREAT PERIL, ELAND ARGUES

With the mid-term U.S. elections looming next month, it's practically a given that the bi-partisan Iraq Study Group, headed by former Secretary of State James Baker, will not recommend that Iraq be decentralized and partitioned in order to avert a complete meltdown along ethnic and sectarian lines. This is extremely disheartening. Because Kurds, Shiites, and Sunnis fear a strong central government, radical decentralization is "the only viable solution remaining for Iraq," writes Independent Institute Senior Fellow Ivan Eland in his latest op-ed.

Whereas each group fears that a central government would become an engine of oppression, U.S. critics of decentralizing and partitioning fear it might encourage the opposite. But those criticisms are unfounded, according to Eland.

"Many opponents of decentralization or partition use the example of the civil war during the break up of Yugoslavia," Eland continues. "Yet that is not the only model. Czechoslovakia and most of the Soviet Union broke up peacefully. Even in the case of Yugoslavia, when Slovenia, Croatia, and Bosnia separated from Yugoslavia, if the Serbs in those states had been allowed to affiliate with Serbia, a civil war might have been avoided."

"Partitioning: The Way Out of Iraq," by Ivan Eland (10/9/06)
http://www.independent.org/newsroom/article.asp?id=1829

"La partición: la salida de Irak"
http://www.elindependent.org/articulos/article.asp?id=1829

The Way Out of Iraq: Decentralizing the Iraqi Government," by Ivan Eland http://www.independent.org/store/policy_re...etail.asp?id=16

PUTTING "DEFENSE" BACK INTO U.S. DEFENSE POLICY, by Ivan Eland http://www.independent.org/store/book_detail.asp?bookID=19

THE EMPIRE HAS NO CLOTHES: U.S. Foreign Policy Exposed http://www.independent.org/store/book_detail.asp?bookID=54

Center on Peace & Liberty (Ivan Eland, director)
http://www.independent.org/research/copal/

PRIORITIZING THE AL QAEDA THREAT

Secretary of State Condoleeza Rice last week denounced the assertion, made in Bob Woodward's STATE OF DENIAL, that in July 2001, she practically turned a deaf ear to CIA Director George Tenet's warning about an impending al Qaeda attack.

But whether or not the Bush administration worked harder than the Clinton administration to avert the 9/11 terrorist attack is beside the point, because neither one had made al Qaeda the highest national security priority, according to Charles Pena, senior fellow at the Independent Institute's Center on Peace & Liberty. More importantly, in the post-9/11 environment, the United States must still make neutralizing al Qaeda its top objective, Pena argues in his latest op-ed.

"While we should expect a superpower to be able to walk and chew gum at the same time, by definition it is not possible to devote 100 percent attention to more than one thing at a time," writes Pena. "If the al Qaeda threat demands our nearly undivided attention, the United States cannot afford dalliances that do not contribute to the goal of destroying al Qaeda.... Therefore, instead of Iraq, the focus of what we have come to call the war on terrorism must be on al Qaeda, which is a terrorist organization that has morphed into a network of networks and is representative of a radical Islamic ideology that is seeping through the Muslim world."

"He Said, She Said," by Charles Pena (10/4/06) http://www.independent.org/newsroom/article.asp?id=1828

"El dijo, ella dijo"
http://www.elindependent.org/articulos/article.asp?id=1828

"Are We Safer?" by Charles Pena (9/13/06)
http://www.independent.org/newsroom/article.asp?id=1815

"¿Estamos más seguros?"
http://www.elindependent.org/articulos/article.asp?id=1815

"THE REALITY AND LEGACY OF THE IRAQ WAR" -- Forum with Mark Danner and Ivan Eland (Oakland, Calif., 10/17/06)
http://www.independent.org/events/detail.asp?eventID=122

According to a highly classified National Intelligence Estimate report co-authored by sixteen U.S. intelligence agencies, the Iraq conflict "is cultivating supporters for the global jihadist movement." The report concludes that the U.S. invasion and occupation of Iraq has fueled a new generation of Islamic radicalism and the threat of terrorism has increased since 9/11.

But fanning the flames of global jihad may be only one of several legacies of the Iraq War. Regional stability, oil security, and American geopolitical power may also be heavily affected for years or decades to come.

What exactly is going on in Iraq, and what are its long-term implications? What will it take for Iraq to become a stable nation? How much does this depend on U.S. policies? How will the outcome in Iraq affect oil prices and the U.S. economy? How will it change relations between the United States and its allies and rivals? What affect is the Iraq war having on domestic politics throughout the Muslim world? Is Iran next?

On Tuesday, Oct. 17, Mark Danner and Ivan Eland will address these and related questions at the Independent Policy Forum, "The Reality and Legacy of the Iraq War." This event will be held at the Independent Institute Conference Center, Oakland, Calif. at 6:30 p.m.

SPEAKERS:

-- MARK DANNER is Professor of Journalism at the University of California at Berkeley and Henry R. Luce Professor of Human Rights and Journalism at Bard College as well as the author of THE SECRET WAY TO WAR: The Downing Street Memo and the Iraq War's Buried History, and TORTURE AND TRUTH: America, Abu Ghraib, and the War on Terror, both published by The New York Review of Books.

-- IVAN ELAND is Senior Fellow and Director of the Center on Peace and Liberty at The Independent Institute and author of, THE EMPIRE HAS NO CLOTHES: U.S. Foreign Policy Exposed, published by The Independent Institute, 2004.

WHEN:
Tuesday, October 17, 2006
Reception and book signing: 6:30 p.m.
Program: 7:00 p.m.

WHERE:
The Independent Institute Conference Center
100 Swan Way
Oakland, CA 94621-1428
For a map and directions, see
http://www.independent.org/aboutus/map.asp

TICKETS: $15 per person ($10 for Independent Institute Members). Special Offer: Admission and a copy of THE EMPIRE HAS NO CLOTHES: $35 ($30 for members). Reserve tickets by calling (510) 632-1366 or ordering online at
http://www.independent.org/events/detail.asp?eventID=122
Praise for THE EMPIRE HAS NO CLOTHES: U.S. Foreign Policy Exposed, by Ivan Eland:

"I can honestly say I found THE EMPIRE HAS NO CLOTHES to be factually well grounded and extremely well thought out. The logic is sound as is the scholarship from my perspective. The Independent Institute should be commended for its role is supporting neutral research which is driven neither by the politics of the left or the right."
--RINALDO S. BRUTOCO, President, The World Business Academy

"In THE EMPIRE HAS NO CLOTHES, Dr. Eland shows that the concept of empire is wholly contrary to the principles of liberals and conservatives alike and makes a mockery of the Founding Fathers' vision for a free republic."
--RON PAUL, U.S. Congressman

For information about THE EMPIRE HAS NO CLOTHES, see
http://www.independent.org/publications/bo...y.asp?bookID=58

IRAQI PRIME MINISTER UNWILLING TO DISARM MILITIAS

Sectarian violence in Iraq appears to be moving from bad to worse. Although a bloody bus bombing dominated the Iraqi news headlines this week, the most revealing indicator of future violence comes from the Iraqi government's top leadership: Iraqi Prime Minister Nouri al-Maliki, a Shi'a, has refused to begin to dismantle the Shi'ite militias that have infiltrated government security forces, just as he has refused to help the U.S. campaign against the Mahdi Army in Sadr City.

The United States may not be able to stop the growing sectarian violence in Iraq, but it can probably temper it, according to Ivan Eland, director of the Independent Institute's Center on Peace & Liberty. Rather than continue to occupy the country and thereby train Shi'ite militia members that have infiltrated government forces, the United States should announce a date for removing troops from that country, Eland argues in his latest op-ed.

"That action would force the Shi'ite-Kurd dominated government to give the Sunnis some incentives for ending their insurgency and agreeing to a decentralization of Iraqi governance," Eland writes. "A rapid U.S. withdrawal would halt the training of Shi'ite forces for an expanded civil war and foil al-Maliki's plan to win it. Also, by threatening to remove U.S. backing from a government dominated by the Shi'a and Kurds, the U.S. would put pressure on those groups to reach a decentralization settlement that shared either oil revenues or oil wells with the Sunnis."

"The U.S. Should Stop Training Forces for the Expanding Iraqi Civil War," by Ivan Eland (10/16/06)
http://www.independent.org/newsroom/article.asp?id=1833

"Los Estados Unidos deberían dejar de entrenar fuerzas para la creciente guerra civil iraquí"
http://www.elindependent.org/articulos/article.asp?id=1833

Also see, "The Reality and Legacy of the Iraq War" -- Featuring Ivan Eland and Mark Danner (Independent Institute Conference Center, Oakland, Calif., 10/17/06)
http://www.independent.org/events/detail.asp?eventID=122

The Way Out of Iraq: Decentralizing the Iraqi Government," by Ivan Eland
http://www.independent.org/store/policy_re...etail.asp?id=16

Center on Peace & Liberty (Ivan Eland, director)
http://www.independent.org/research/copal/

MEXICO BORDER WALL HURTS U.S. ALLIES

Most American politicians who support erecting a 700-mile-long fence across the U.S.-Mexico border know it won't keep illegal aliens out of the United States, but they support so that their constituents will see them as "doing something." That's what Mexican President-elect Felipe Calderon told Senior Fellow Alvaro Vargas Llosa last week. One thing that U.S politicians fail to appreciate, however, is that the wall weakens the hand of U.S. allies in Latin America, according to Vargas Llosa.

For starters, the wall makes the campaign of pro-American Nicaraguan presidential candidate Eduardo Montealegre more challenging. The wall also makes it difficult for El Salvador's leaders to get credit for enacting policies the United States supported, such as signing the Central American Free Trade Agreement, enacting free-market reforms that reduced the poverty rate to 35 percent over the past decade, and sending troops to Iraq to support U.S. efforts. Now El Salvadoreans feel forgotten by the United States.

The rationale behind the wall is a myth that no one really believes, according to Vargas Llosa. U.S. legislators know that "the average immigrant, over the course of a lifetime, will pay $80,000 more than he or she will get in government services," writes Vargas Llosa. But rather than educate the public, they have succumbed to political urges. "Everyone agrees that members of Congress responsible for the Secure Fence Act have scant faith in their own creature."

See "The Other Side of the Wall," by Alvaro Vargas Llosa (10/11/06) http://www.independent.org/newsroom/article.asp?id=1830

"El otro lado del muro"
http://www.elindependent.org/articulos/article.asp?id=1830

LIBERTY FOR LATIN AMERICA: How to Undo Five Hundred Years of State Oppression, by Alvaro Vargas Llosa
http://www.independent.org/store/book_detail.asp?bookID=55

THE CHE GUEVARA MYTH, by Alvaro Vargas Llosa
http://www.independent.org/store/book_detail.asp?bookID=61

Center on Global Prosperity (Alvaro Vargas Llosa, director)
http://www.independent.org/research/cogp/

El Independent: El Blog del Centro Para la Prosperidad Global de The Independent Institute
http://independent.typepad.com

BUSH KEEPS REVISING WAR JUSTIFICATION - TOM RAUM, ASSOCIATED PRESS (SANTA FE NEW MEXICAN, NM, OCTOBER 16): For a while last summer, Bush depicted the war as one against "Islamic fascism," borrowing a phrase from conservative commentators. The "fascism" phrase abruptly disappeared from Bush's speeches, reportedly after he was talked out of it by Secretary of State Condoleezza Rice and Karen Hughes, a longtime Bush confidante now with the State Department.
http://www.freenewmexican.com/news/50715.html

REMEMBER WHEN "W" STOOD FOR WOMEN? CALLING MAVIS LENO... - DEANNE STILLMAN (HUFFINGTON POLST, OCTOBER 9): The Taliban-like crews in Iraq are sending women back to the Stone Age. What must Laura Bush think? And Karen Hughes, who campaigned for Bush in 04, using the "W stands for women" line to appeal to soccer moms?
http://www.huffingtonpost.com/deanne-still...-f_b_31347.html

A CONVERSATION WITH JOHN KERRY - INTERVIEW BY BOB WOODWARD (WASHINGTON POST, OCTOBER 15): Kerry: "What are we up against? What is this all about? Did these guys just attack us because this is part of Osama bin Laden's strategy for a greater caliphate in the Middle East, or are they attacking us for other reasons? ... And it seems to me that the transformational aspects of it require a much more massive kind of public diplomacy, global cooperation on religious issues as well as on economic issues and human rights and other issues, as it did the barrel of a gun."
http://www.washingtonpost.com/wp-dyn/conte...1301393_pf.html

AXIS OF OIL: WITH OIL AS THEIR WEAPON, AN EMERGING CABAL OF NATIONS THREATENS AMERICA - JOSHUA KURLANTZICK (DALLAS MORNING NEWS, OCTOBER 15): The United States needs to use public diplomacy to undermine the legitimacy of autocratic regimes.
http://www.dallasnews.com/sharedcontent/dw...n1.3e87e61.html


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