http://www.baltimorechronicle.com/112204MargieBurns.shtml

Did Bush Lose the Election?
by Margie Burns

As things stand right now, it seems unlikely that Mr. Bush won the election.
There are two major categories of problems. One affects the electoral vote. Release of the final exit polls conducted in all states shows a pattern that cannot be explained away. The exit polls were released (not to the general public) at 4:00 p.m. on Election Day by polling consultants Edison Media Research and Mitofsky International.

These are the genuine exit polls for all 50 states and the District of Columbia, taken before the outcome was known in any particular state. These are not the “exit polls” that organizations including CNN went back and retroactively changed after the election, making them conform more to vote tallies.

The exit poll results are laid out straightforwardly in a very clear list (tabulation). Compared to the vote tallies given the public, they seem amazing. Contrary to results in every election for the past twenty years, the variance between exit polls the published vote tally was more than two points--in other words a swing of 4% or 5% or more to Bush, in 33 of 51 jurisdictions. Regardless of which candidate won in those states, a big variance, always in the same direction, allegedly occurred in every single exit poll in all of them.

Exit polls from the next nine states down the list were also reversed by a smaller swing toward Bush in the published vote tally, including in the District of Columbia and Maryland. Thus, to sum up, a four-out-five-state swing to Bush is alleged in an election where every indication showed new voters, independent voters, and younger voters trending toward Kerry and/or away from Bush, and in an election where turnout increased, even though increased voter turnout generally favors the challenger against the incumbent.

Furthermore, this crucial swing occurred in all the close states: Colorado, Florida, Minnesota, New Hampshire, New Mexico, Ohio, Pennsylvania, Wisconsin and Iowa all allegedly had the same “red shift.” Most seemingly shifted more than two points, in other words a swing of 4% or 5%, regardless of the size or region of the state, or whether it went for Bush or Kerry.

A paper titled “The Unexplained Exit Poll Discrepancy” has been published by Dr. Steven F. Freeman, whose Ph.D. in organizational studies came from MIT and who holds professorships at the University of Pennsylvania and at an international MBA program founded by Harvard. According to Professor Freeman, the swing between exit poll and vote tally is an anomaly even if you take just the key battleground states of Pennsylvania, Ohio, and Florida. “The likelihood of any two of these statistical anomalies occurring together is on the order of one-in-a-million," he says. "The odds against all three occurring together are 250 million to one.”

Disclaimer: I distrust opinion polls and much other polling. I have long worried that incessant polling can weaken the individual’s reliance on his/her own judgment, can plant suggestions, can intimidate reporters, and can manipulate public acceptance of the unacceptable. Following this election, an opinion poll has already been published suggesting that most people are relieved that the outcome was clear.

All well and good, if it was clear. But the integrity of counting votes is essential to our nation’s survival as a democracy. Obsession about who is ahead before the election, the “horse race” question, is often silly. But after the election, the question of who won is fundamental. No other question is nearly as important.

Exit polls are not just polls. They are polls of people who actually showed up to vote, taken just after the voting, and weighted to take into account any preponderance of one group. Professor Freeman’s paper points out that exit polls are used to check and verify the validity of elections in countries including Germany and Mexico; when exit polls contradicted the claim that Eduard Shevardnadze had won election in the former Soviet country of Georgia, he was forced to resign under pressure from the US among others.

Immediate investigation is most urgent in four states that the swing from exit poll to published vote tally also swung from Kerry to Bush: Ohio, Florida, New Mexico, and Iowa. The many problems already reported from counties and precincts in all four states more than corroborate the suggestion raised by the exit poll tabulation. These four states also add up to 59 electoral votes, more than enough to have tilted the election outcome.

The Electoral College is not the whole story. Questions have arisen that affect the popular vote count even in “safe” states. Stay tuned.

Yes and the facts will continue to come out when all is said and done. Bush did lose, America lost the worst of all though................

How right you are!

Bush lost, Kerry Won

America lost to Bush and from Bush's leadership

And yet again:
Ukraine Opposition Leader Declares Victory
By ALEKSANDAR VASOVIC, Associated Press Writer
KIEV, Ukraine - Opposition leader Viktor Yushchenko declared victory in Ukraine's presidential election and took a symbolic oath of office Tuesday, warning that the country was on the verge of civil conflict. About 200,000 supporters gathered in the capital to protest alleged election fraud.

The opposition will conduct "a campaign of civil disobedience" and "a nonviolent struggle for recognition of the true results of the election."

The Election Commission's announcement that the Kremlin-backed Yanukovych was ahead of the Western-leaning Yushchenko has galvanized anger among many of the former Soviet republic's 48 million people. Official results, with more than 99.48 percent of precincts counted, showed Yanukovych leading with 49.39 percent to his challenger's 46.71 percent. But several exit polls had found Yushchenko the winner.

The European Union (news - web sites) called for an urgent review of the results, and Senator Richard Lugar, chairman of the U.S. Senate's Foreign Relations Committee, spoke of "a concerted and forceful program of election-day fraud and abuse."

Amazing, a Republican senator making a comment about election fraud overseas! Time to look in our own backyard, senator.

http://story.news.yahoo.com/news?tmpl=stor...raine_elections

So now bring in the foreign countries to force the USA to COMPLY to their own election standards!!!! :o :o :o :o

when exit polls contradicted the claim that Eduard Shevardnadze had won election in the former Soviet country of Georgia, he was forced to resign under pressure from the US among others.


Sounds like a great idea to me. Does this only apply to foriegn elections? Is this another example of double standards? Sad

Maybe it would apply if we all took to the streets about this. Maybe it would apply if the Dems appealed to other democracies (the ones that are still speaking to us) around the world. But most everyone is afraid of the consequences of opposing the US government.

Wouldn't it be nice if Senator Lugar paid attention to the election in his own country? If they suspect election fraud in the Ukraine because the exit polls were off, they darn well better suspect election fraud in this country because our exit polls were off to the point of being impossibilities.

Yes, it would be nice.

Yes Bush lost.

That editorial touches on exactly what keeps nagging at my gut......... EVERYthing tilted to Bush. Every time the exit polls were wrong, it was in Bush's favor. Every time we find a "technical error" in a voting machine, it tilted to Bush. Every time there were extra votes, they went to Bush. AND, perhaps more troubling, the tilt extended past this election. We seem to have a national trend whereby EVERY FLIPPEN TIME there is an unexpected shift in voting results, it is ALWAYS in favor of the Republican candidate.

No one is this "lucky". And the results of this election were like something straight out of the Freepier's dreams. They got pratically everything they wanted.......... but that is not the way real life works. It's always a mixed bag result.

I'm sorry, but no one is that "lucky" and it stopped passing the smell test ages ago.

I agree. If it were a real technical problem with the machines, you'd think that it would have favored Kerry about as often as it favored Bush. But I haven't heard of one instance where irregularities ended up favoring Kerry. Not even once. And that is just about an impossibility, unless the vote was specifically rigged to favor Bush.

If it were that easy.

1. I posted a suggestion here about a 3-4 days ago that we should hold candlelight vigils at sunset on 11/22 to honor the memory of John Kennedy. There were no replies.

2. I did the same to a Massachusetts democrats discussion group (75 members), there was no interest.

Are we too busy watching football and other mundane activities?

The Balitmore Chronicle is a left wing rag. Look at this editorial.

http://baltimorechronicle.com/092704Editorial.shtml

The really interesting thing will be to see what happens if it's proven that Bush lost. If a recount in Ohio (or Florida) shows that Kerry actually won, will Bush do the right thing and step down? (Pause for explosive fit of laughter) What will the press do? Will there be a public outcry for Bush to leave office so that Kerry can take over? I know what the GOP will do -- they'll claim it would harm the country to change leadership in such times of turmoil and ... better luck next time.

Referring to the suspicious red shift: "The odds against all three occurring together are 250 million to one.”

It's not luck...you right!

I think many are thinking along these same lines. I've read this suggestion in several places. I just suggested a few minutes ago on another thread that we cancel our cable and boycott mainstream media. We REALLY SHOULD BE DOING SOMETHING!!!

snip from the editorial
How? Simple as this: Recognizing that the citizens of this nation will have gotten into this fix because they have been mis-informed, mal-informed, and non-informed by our mainstream media and their repugnant "celebrity pundits," everyone should immediately cancel all subscriptions to cable and satellite TV and to major newspapers, while at the same time subscribing to independent US media sources that we believe have served us well. For news for the duration, we will turn to these independent sources plus the Internet and the foreign press