ELECTION NOTEBOOK
Poll: Iraq, sex scandal halt GOP momentum
Site says Foley seat likely to switch to Democrats
By William L. Watts, MarketWatch
Last Update: 12:40 PM ET Oct 4, 2006


WASHINGTON (MarketWatch) -- A House sex scandal and a renewed focus on the Bush administration's handling of the Iraq war has halted a rebound by Republicans hoping to keep control of the House and Senate in the Nov. 7 midterm elections, according to Wall Street Journal/NBC News poll released late Tuesday.
The survey of 805 registered voters found that by a margin of 41% to 18%, recent news developments have made Americans less favorable toward continued GOP control of Congress. Respondents, by a 34% to 23% margin, said that they were more favorably inclined to Democratic control. Bush's job-approval rating, which had ticked up earlier this month to 42%, fell back slightly to 39%, the survey added, a decline within the survey's margin of error of plus or minus 3.5 percentage points.
Democrats hold a 9 percentage-point edge over Republicans on the question of who should control Congress -- 48% to 39%. That's unchanged from early September. Democrats need to make a net gain of 15 seats to take control of the House, while a net pickup of six seats is required to achieve a Senate majority.
The Journal said the poll indicates that momentum enjoyed by Republicans as a result of Bush's decision in early September to emphasize national-security issues has ground to a halt. See story on WSJ.com (subscription required).
The survey was conducted Sept. 30 to Oct. 2, as headlines were dominated by news about former Florida Republican Rep. Mark Foley's sexually explicit computer messages to teenage boys who had served as congressional pages, as well as by concerns about Iraq stemming from a National Intelligence Estimate and from details of the handling of the war in "State of Denial" -- a new book by journalist Bob Woodward. The survey didn't specifically ask voters about the Foley matter or new assessments of the war.
The survey found 45% of voters said that it is time to give a new person a chance rather than re-elect their incumbent member of Congress, while 38% opted to keep their current lawmaker. Voters were split on that question in early September.
Site: Democrat challenger likely to win Foley seat
Foley's re-election was once seen as almost a sure thing for Republicans, but the South-Central Florida district is now seen as likely to send Democratic challenger Tim Mahoney to Congress this fall, according to CQPolitics.com, a Web site that tracks and rates congressional races.
The site had classified the race as "Safe Republican," but then switched to "No Clear Favorite" after Foley resigned. Amid the ongoing furor over the House Republican leadership's handling of inappropriate e-mails and sexually explicit Internet messages allegedly sent by Foley to former pages, CQPolitics.com switched its rating again Monday night to "Leans Democratic."
Republicans have chosen Joe Negron, a state legislator, to replace Foley as the candidate -- but under Florida election law, Foley's name remains on the ballot. Any votes for Foley will go to Negron.
Nevertheless, many voters are likely to be unwilling to cast that vote even if they are aware that the votes would accrue to Negron, CQPolitics.com wrote.
House Majority Leader John Boehner of Ohio, the House's second-ranking Republican, concurred.
"To vote for this candidate, you have to vote for Mark Foley," Boehner told conservative radio talk-show host Sean Hannity on Monday. "How many people are going to hold their nose to do that?"
But Negron isn't giving up. "I certainly respect [Boehner's] opinion, but I strongly disagree and so does Gov. Jeb Bush [R-Fla.], who carried this district by 60%.
"Just because Mark Foley has engaged in reprehensible conduct does not mean there will be a coronation for the Democratic candidate," Negron told the Hill, a newspaper that covers Congress.
William L. Watts covers Congress and politics for MarketWatch.