This started out to be a brief comment, but turned into a brain dump. To summarize, we won't require any form of draft as long as the world situation remains as stable as it is today. W would turn out to be an even bigger fool than I think he is if he goes looking for more trouble in Iran or North Korea, given that we are already stretched thin with our present actions. As long as he thinks he has the luxury to wage one or two wars simultaneously, we can manage with top-notch volunteers. But if anyone, such as North Korea, gets nastier and starts making noises like they want to sell nukes to Osama's followers, we would eventually be faced with a need to put more people in uniform. So here's my rant.
I'm looking for the big picture viewpoint, the view from the International Space Station.
I agree with dsmo (post #3) that this would not be a propitious moment for the President to push the Selective Service button (thanks, ARMYDAD Bobby, for your encyclopedic info, as always).
And Marine and flydangler (#12 and #13) are right about the professional soldiers not wanting draftees among the troops. The ideal unit for the pros is composed of motivated, educated, intelligent men and women -- the cream of the crop.
These assumptions hold true, as long as the current geo-political situation remains relatively stable. But we are stretched thin at the moment, militarily and financially. If given the luxury to fight or two wars at a time, we could manage it. But if something else erupts before we're finished in Iraq and Afghanistan, we're in trouble. Iran? Syria? North Korea? The world's most populous Muslim country,
Indonesia? We could borrow money, but we would need to put more citizens in uniform.
How would this administration react to a new "hot spot"? If we call the shots, we'll avoid biting off more than we think we can chew. They may be dumb, but they're not stupid. We need to understand W's peoples' motives in Iraq. Iraq is a conundrum, a puzzle. It appears to me that somebody in the current administration has a definite agenda -- it's just difficult to discern what it is.
Because so much about Iraq doesn't make sense, we must conclude either that W and his people are fools and inept -- or that they are carefully concealing their real agenda.
The only people who are fooled by the "war on terrorism" explanation are the slack-jawed "conservative" true-believers, who enthusiastically lap up whatever foul-smelling porridge W spoons out to us. The war in Iraq must be an effective recruiting poster for those inclined to want to kill Americans. It must be easier to sign up anti-American fighters with a real live war going on, compared to the usual simmering hatred they try to use to motivate people to leave their lives behind and rise up to strike out against Americans. There are those who say that Iraq is like a honeypot, and we are attracting the flies to one place so that we can kill them efficiently. To them I say that for every one we kill, two more will be motivated to replace their fallen brethren.
The oil explanation has some compelling arguments. But we could have relaxed our relationship with Saddam and paid cash for all the oil they could deliver to us. The problems with that are that we ultimately wouldn't control it, so we couldn't rely on it; and we would be supplying Saddam with billions of dollars that he could turn around and use against us. So the Big Oil representatives in W's clique would prefer to buy Iraqi oil from a friendly government, instead of a hostile government. But the "blood for oil" argument is a tough sell, so it needs to be sugar-coated with palatable ideas like "winning the war on terrorism" and "delivering freedom to the Iraqi people".
As for delivering freedom to the Iraqi people, it would be so much more believeable if the Iraqi people had started a revolution, and we stepped in to help them. Our American Revolution provides a limited analogy. We started it, and then we persuaded the French to help us. Imagine what it would have been like if the French had come here to fight the British on our soil, to free us from the oppression of King George. The analogy breaks down because the French and the British were old enemies, and it would have been plausible for them to fight on our soil -- but their supply lines would have been drawn thin crossing the vast ocean, and it probably would not have been a battle ground they would have chosen, all else being equal. As it was, we struggled to raise and fund an army, and to persuade farmers and ordinary citizens, busy with their lives, to abandon their families and their fields and to risk their lives for the cause of freedom. The French agreed to assist our already considerable effort. We knew some highly motivated soldiers in South Vietnam -- but there weren't nearly enough. There are doubtless highly motivated people in Iraq -- but we don't hear about them. We're handing them the gift of freedom -- but they seem unsure about what to do with it. If freedom is our motivation (imagine Jon Lovitz as the pathological liar, saying "weapons of mass destruction, no, um, freedom, yeah, freedom, that's it, that's the ticket") then our approach is ill-considered or wrong-headed, or stupid. And are we waging a propaganda war on the ground in Iraq? We don't see much evidence of it on the news. How are we doing on winning the hearts and minds of the people? My impression is that we are making a mess of that on a regular basis, killing way too many friendlies, and generally messing up peoples' lives.
Then there is the question of nuclear weapons. Iran and North Korea have nukes. Excuse me, "weapons of mass destruction". If we were really concerned about nukes, we would start by buying, stealing, or otherwise neutralizing every last stray nuclear weapon in the former Soviet Union. Are we addressing that? Not according to what I've heard. The terrorists are not waging a military-style war against us -- that would be virtually impossible. The nature of terrorism is to strike unexpectedly, to get our attention and make us do things we will regret later. It would only take one big strike to throw us into turmoil -- perhaps something like the movie "The Sum of All Fears", where a lost Israeli nuke is smuggled into one of our ports on a container ship and detonated in Baltimore. (Why Baltimore? A few more miles down the Balto-Wash Parkway, and they could have devastated DC.)
Do we know what the terrorists have in mind for us? Almost certainly not. W would like us to think that we have been attack-free since 9/11 because we have effectively defended ourselves. But do we know what they have in mind for us? They waited 8 years between strikes on WTC. I doubt that W knows what those who hate us have in mind for us.
On an obligation to serve: I think the Boomers among us would agree that most of us grew up in the late 40s and 50s and 60s with the idea that each of us has an obligation to serve, to preserve liberty and defend the Constitution, to pay a debt to those who served before us and who ensured that we could enjoy the lives we are living today. It seems that the kids today don't have that same sense of obligation to serve that we had. For example, at dinner this past Friday evening, our daughter's 24-yo boyfriend loudly and repeatedly asserted that "There is no way they will bring back the draft". I tried to get him to address the question of whether or not he felt any obligation to serve, but he remained silent. I think he has not thought it through, or has never been challenged on that point before.
An involuntary call-up would be costly, both politically and financially. But it may become necessary, or at least the President could be persuaded that it is necessary (dumbass that he is).
One of the things that bothers me most about Iraq is that while we are losing people there, here at home we have no sense of being on a war footing, we have no sense of shared sacrifice. Most of us go about our daily lives here as if there is nothing going on there in Iraq. I do a "gut check" periodically, and the war in Iraq barely exists for me, the terrorist threat seems vague, the "war on terror" seems more like "the war against people who are mad at us in Iraq", which serves no discernible purpose, and which is bleeding real blood and borrowed money.
The return of the draft would get us all involved. That's why I think it would be a good thing. Citizen soldiers are a healthy component of our standing military. That point is not really addressed by sending the Guard and Reserves into combat -- they are all volunteers. As I said more than once on John Kerry's forum, it's far easier for W to stage an adventure like Iraq with professionals, compared to what it would be like to send draftees from many many homes across our land to a war that only makes sense to those ignorant of history, particularly in Vietnam. I believe Charles Rangel and -- Senator Hollings? -- share that vision, that the return of the draft would put the brakes on whimsical adventurism on the part of the stupid W administration. Is it any more tragic to send draftees to certain death in an optional war, than it is to send our best professionals to certain death in an optional war? I say no. It shouldn't happen to anybody. It's one thing to defend our home. It's quite another to fight on the other side of the world for dubious or unclear reasons. The CiC has an advantage over the troops -- they will do what they are told to do without question. If they stop and think about why they are fighting in Iraq, I'd bet they would come up with the same answer many of us came up with in Vietnam -- they are fighting for each other, and if W had not sent them there, it never would have occurred to any of them to go there and do that. I'm confident they spend very little time thinking about why they are there -- what I thought about was getting through this day.
I met many civilians, as well as soldiers, in Vietnam who made me see their plight, and who gave me a glimmer of why it made sense for us to be there. But I have struggled ever since then to reconcile being the "policeman of the world". Could W send draftees to be the policeman of the world? Tough sell. He wants volunteers, and he wants no other problems to pop up while we're stuck in Iraq.