Annual Missile Defense Costs to Nearly Double by 2016
Costs could reach $18 billion per year, says CBO
WASHINGTON - November 7 - In a new report by the Congressional Budget Office (CBO) that looks at military spending between now and 2024, total investment costs for missile defense are expected to hit their highest point in 2016: $15 billion ($18 billion, if cost risk is included). This peak in spending is three years later than the CBO had anticipated when doing its projection in October 2005, largely due to delays in a few of the programs.
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CDI Senior Advisor Philip Coyle served as Director of Operational Test and Evaluation for the Office of the Secretary of Defense from 1994-2001, and is available to reporters to answer questions regarding the new CBO report.
He can be reached by phone at 916-393-2951 or by e-mail: martha.krebs@att.net.
Victoria Samson , CDI’s missile defense analyst, is also available to the press for comments and interviews.
She can be reached by phone at 210-455-7838 or by e-mail: vsamson@cdi.org.
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The cost projection considers the various elements of the overall ballistic missile defense (BMD) system separately. For the Ground-based Midcourse Defense (GMD) system, it predicts, “Deployment of that expanded GMD system would be completed in about 2013, with procurement of spare interceptors to continue to 2017, at a total cost of roughly $18 billion over the 2007-2017 period.” For the Aegis BMD system, CBO predicts it will start to buy new versions of its Standard Missile (SM)-3 interceptor “in 2013, and reach $1 billion per year over the period spanning 2015 to 2019.” For the Space Tracking and Surveillance System (STSS), “MDA would begin to field a five-satellite constellation in 2014, with a second spiral beginning in 2017 that would increase the constellation to a total of nine satellites. CBO projects a total procurement cost (including launch costs) for the two spirals of about $7 billion. Assuming a six-year lifespan, replacement of the original satellites would start in 2020.”
Its cost projections for the boost phase elements are interesting. The Kinetic Energy Interceptor (KEI) and Airborne Laser (ABL) have been plumped as being possible alternatives. However, CBO points out that KEI is also being floated for replacement for midcourse/terminal interceptors. Furthermore, “current MDA documents describe KEI as a ‘complement’ to the ABL. For the purposes of this projection, CBO has assumed that both ABL and KEI will be fully developed and fielded; actual costs could be reduced if MDA should decide to terminate one of the programs.” KEI has a land-based flight test of its booster planned for 2008, with intercepts attempted in 2012 and deployment in 2014. The ABL's shoot-down test has been pushed back a year, to 2009. CBO assumes that MDA will buy a second ABL plane in 2012, then the Air Force will start in 2015 purchasing seven additional aircraft, "consistent with previous plans formulated by both MDA and the Air Force."
As for the Space Test Bed, a research component for space-based interceptors, is planned by MDA to cost the agency $500 million annually starting 2008. CBO assumes that an operational space-based interceptor system will be developed and would be available in about 2017.
Finally, annual funding for terminal phase systems – the Terminal High Altitude Area Defense (THAAD) system, the Patriot Advanced Capability-3 (PAC-3) system, and the Medium Extended Air Defense System (MEADS) – would run about $2 billion annually through 2024.
According to CDI Research Analyst Victoria Samson, “This insistence on following the scatter-shot approach for missile defense -- spending money on every single aspect with the hope of eventually weeding out programs -- is actually having the opposite effect. Weapon systems, once they have funding and political backers, become entrenched and their cancellation becomes nigh impossible. Instead, if MDA is serious about establishing a working missile defense system, it would do better to focus its time, money, and effort.”
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About Philip Coyle:
Coyle is a senior advisor for the World Security Institute’s Center for Defense Information. He is a recognized expert on U.S. and worldwide military research, development and testing, on operational military matters, and on national security policy and defense spending, including defense acquisition reform and defense procurement. Coyle also has extensive background in missile defense, in military space systems, and in high-technology weapons, such as high power lasers and other directed-energy weapons. From his many years at Lawrence Livermore National Laboratory, Coyle also has considerable experience in nuclear weapons research, development, and testing, and nuclear weapons effects, including EMP.
From Sept. 29, 1994, through Jan. 20, 2001, Coyle was assistant secretary of defense and director, Operational Test and Evaluation, in the Department of Defense, and is the longest serving director in the 20-year history of the office. In this capacity, he was the principal advisor to the secretary of defense on test and evaluation at DOD.
About Victoria Samson:
Victoria Samson joined the Center for Defense Information staff in November 2001. Her areas of interest include missile defense, nuclear reductions, and emerging weapons technologies. Samson, the author of numerous op-eds, analytical pieces, journal articles, and electronic updates on missile defense and space security matters, provides an objective assessment of U.S. policy. Prior to coming to CDI, Samson was the senior policy associate at the Coalition to Reduce Nuclear Dangers, a consortium of arms control groups in the Washington, D.C., area. She previously worked as a subcontractor on war-gaming scenarios for the Missile Defense Agency's Directorate of Intelligence. Samson has an M.A. in international relations from the Johns Hopkins School of Advanced International Studies. She also holds a B.A. in political science with a specialization in international relations from UCLA.
About the Center for Defense Information (CDI):
The Center for Defense Information (CDI) provides expert analysis on various components of U.S. national security, international security and defense policy. CDI promotes wide-ranging discussion and debate on security issues such as nuclear weapons, space security, missile defense, small arms and military transformation.
Since 1972, CDI has produced research and publications such as the acclaimed Defense Monitor, numerous books and monographs, and engaging conferences. To ensure the ability to provide objective analysis, CDI accepts no U.S. government or defense industry funding.
To encourage the intellectual freedom of the staff, CDI does not hold policy positions.
CDI is part of the World Security Institute, whose divisions include the Center for Defense Information, International Media, the Pulitzer Center on Crisis Reporting, Azimuth Media and International Programs with offices in Brussels, Cairo and Moscow, and projects in China.
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