Business Times - 20 Feb 2007


The Axis of Evil: now there is only one left

There is a possibility the North Korean model of a nuclear deal may be applied to Iran

By LEON HADAR
WASHINGTON CORRESPONDENT

DURING his State of the Union Address on Jan 29, 2002, US President George Bush named Iraq, North Korea and Iran as members of an 'Axis of Evil', accusing them of sponsoring terrorism and seeking weapons of mass destruction (WMD). The three Evils Ones 'threaten the peace of the world', Mr Bush declared. 'By seeking weapons of mass destruction, these regimes pose a grave and growing danger,' he said.

Indeed, Mr Bush and his foreign policy aides had made it clear after the address that they would consider taking pre-emptive military action against these three regimes - with Syria added occasionally to the list - to prevent them from acquiring WMDs and assisting terrorist groups. Moreover, they seemed to suggest that the anti-American orientation of these countries reflected the nature of their 'rogue regimes' and that Washington would probably have no choice but to achieve a 'regime change' in Baghdad, Pyongyang, Teheran (and Damascus) in order to protect its interests.

And the Bush administration had also stressed that if other government failed to support this strategy, then Washington would be forced to do the 'regime changes' on its own together with the occasional 'coalition of the willing'. The ousting of Saddam Hussein and the invasion of Iraq was seen as the first stage in the implementation of this pre-emptive, unilateral and militarised grand strategy.

Tough message

One Evil One was down and against the backdrop of the initial signs of military success (which lasted for a few weeks), the message from the (then) happy regime changers in Washington to the remaining two other - or three, if one added Syria to the list - Evil Ones was: 'The communists in Pyongyang and the ayatollahs better watch out. We're coming to get you guys!'

Well, as we know by now, Saddam didn't have either WMDs or ties to Osama bin Laden (never mind), and 'liberated' Iraq hasn't been transformed into a shining model of freedom in the Middle East, but the regime change in Baghdad did have one clear unintended (but not unforeseen) effect.

It taught Dear Leader Kim Jong Il and Supreme Leader Sayyid Ali Khamenei one important lesson: If you don't want to end up like Saddam, make sure that you have a nuclear weapon. It's called deterrence and it would ensure that even the most ambitious American neocon would think twice before trying to oust you.

And Surprise! Surprise! This is exactly what the North Koreans and the Iranians have been doing since the US invasion of Iraq in 2003. On Oct 9, 2006, North Korea announced that it had conducted its first nuclear test, and many intelligence and military analysts have suggested that North Korea has produced, or has the capability to produce, up to six or seven such nuclear bombs (although there are doubts that it has the systems necessary to deliver them).

At the same time, in 2004 Iran began resuming the processing of nuclear fuel as part of its plan to achieve self-sufficiency in nuclear power production, which most experts believe makes it possible for it to develop nuclear weapons. A year later it started converting raw uranium gas, a necessary step for enrichment and the development of nuclear power.

In a way, the recent agreement by North Korea to dismantle its nuclear weapons programme in exchange for fuel oil and international acceptance, including the hope of eventual recognition by the US, only helped to dramatise the failure of the Bush administration's Axis of Evil strategy.

In fact, Mr Bush's tough approach towards Mr Kim was evident before the Iraq War and 9/11, when the White House had sabotaged what remained from South Korea's then 'Sunshine Policy' towards the North and announced, despite opposition from then Secretary of State Colin Powell, that it would cease to pursue its predecessor's policy of engaging Pyongyang.

There is little doubt that if President Bush had continued pursuing President Bill Clinton's policy after coming to office he could probably have gotten the current deal years ago. Instead, under Mr Bush, Washington ended up choosing the worst of all possible worlds.

The Axis of Evil speech and the invasion of Iraq provided Pyongyang with incentives to continue enriching plutonium and accelerate its drive to develop nuclear weapons.

And by refusing to talk directly to North Korea, and demanding that the negotiations take place in a multilateral diplomatic setting - which is an irony, if one considers the extent to which the neocons have denigrated the words 'diplomacy' and 'multilateralism' - Washington only created obstacles in the way to reaching a deal which delivered to Pyongyang what it really wanted: The expectation of eventual recognition by the United States.

It's not surprising therefore that the more ardent neocons, including former US ambassador to the United Nations John Bolton, have been bashing the agreement with North Korea as a form of appeasement.

That brings us to the last remaining member of the Axis of Evil, Iran. What worries Mr Bolton and his ideological mates more than anything - and what encourages those who want to avoid a military confrontation between the Americans and the Iranians - is that the North Korean 'model' may eventually be applied to Iran.

President Bush could try to test Teheran's intentions by establishing a regional diplomatic setting and inviting Iran to negotiate with it as part of that grouping. It could provide Iran with incentives to give up or slow down its nuclear programme as part of a deal that includes the establishment of diplomatic ties between Washington and Teheran.

And it could take all these steps and offer such a deal to Iran now - and not later when it could prove to be too late and too little. So, let's hope Mr Bolton is right.

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