SPECIAL ANNOUNCEMENT: Online registration is now closed for the Carnegie International Nonproliferation Conference: Tomorrow’s Solutions taking place from June 25 - 26, 2007 in Washington, DC. ON-SITE REGISTRATION IS STILL AVAILABLE and begins at 8:00 am on Monday, June 25 and 7:30 am on Tuesday, June 26.

[b]Click here for the final agenda.[/b]

Iran’s Nuclear Program: Between Denial and Despair
(Pierre Goldschmidt, Carnegie Analysis)

Friday, June 15
This week in Vienna the International Atomic Energy Agency (IAEA) Board of Governors discussed the deterioration of “the Agency's level of knowledge of certain aspects of Iran's nuclear related activities.” Contributing to this concern, Iran has unilaterally suspended its agreement to provide the IAEA with early design information for new facilities, and it has denied the IAEA access (for design verification) to the heavy water research reactor under construction at Arak. Notwithstanding these developments, the Board refrained from making a clear statement that Iran’s actions were in breach of its safeguards agreement yet again. Why? Is the Board of Governor’s silence on this issue for some obscure legal reason or because it is an inconvenient truth?

“An inconvenient truth”?

In his film on climate change “An Inconvenient Truth,” Al Gore remarks that quite often the same people who initially denied that there is any proof that the greenhouse effect is due to human activities, now say that global warming is inevitable and that it is too late to take corrective actions. A similar attitude is being adopted by some people with regard to the Iranian nuclear program. On the one hand they claim that all the incriminating indications gathered so far by the IAEA, Iran’s lack of cooperation with the Agency, and its refusal to comply with UN Security Council resolutions do not prove that Iran intends to manufacture nuclear weapons; on the other hand they say that it is in any case impossible to stop Iran in its quest to master the processes that are needed to fabricate and deliver nuclear devices.


Nonproliferation Program Website CarnegieEndowment.org Iran Resources South Asia Resources Korea Resources China Resources Bush Administration Debates Iran Policy
(Global Security Newswire)

Monday, June 18
Iran’s persistent push to build a uranium enrichment plant has fueled a strategy debate within the Bush administration, in which hard-line officials aligned with Vice President Dick Cheney have been pushing the possibility of conducting military strikes against Iranian facilities, the New York Times reported Saturday.

State Department officials have countered the Cheney camp with support for the European Union-led diplomatic effort to curb Iran’s nuclear activities by offering economic and energy incentives, according to the Times.

In a recent White House meeting, Undersecretary of State Nicholas Burns estimated that the EU efforts to negotiate could drag on through President George W. Bush’s entire term, an assessment that has encouraged some administration conservatives to seek more direct action.

“Regime change or the use of force are the only available options to prevent Iran from getting a nuclear weapons capability, if they want it,” said former U.N. Ambassador John Bolton, who reflects the views of administration insiders.

Such views, however, have been undermined by U.S. mistakes in assessing Iraq’s prewar WMD capabilities combined with the difficulty in managing Iraq after the invasion, the Times reported.



Saudi King Calls for Peaceful Resolution of Iran Nuke Issue
(Kuwait Times)

Tuesday, June 19
Saudi King Abdullah called for a peaceful resolution of the Iranian nuclear standoff and upheld Tehran's right to civilian use of nuclear energy in an interview published yesterday in Spain. "A nuclear program in the region is an extra weight on her shoulders," the king told El Pais in an interview published as he opened a week-long European tour. "Our position is primarily reflected in our support for non-proliferation of nuclear weapons and in work for a peaceful resolution of the Iranian issue, well away from the tension and nervousness which dominate the current language" of the parties concerned, the king said.

King Abdullah showed sympathy for Tehran's stance in opining that "all countries have a right to peaceful use of nuclear energy in accord with the norms of the International Atomic energy Agency (IAEA)." But he added, in a thinly-veiled reference to Israel, that "the criterion be applied to all countries in the region without exception." Abdullah said he was "greatly concerned" by the situation in the Middle East. "My fears are similar to those of all reasonable people: That the pursuit of all these conflicts produces a flare-up which does not limit itself to the region but takes on a global dimension," he declared.



House Backs Nuclear Fuel Bank
(Associated Press)

Monday, June 18
The House on Monday approved a $50 million fund to create an international nuclear fuel bank, an idea aimed at negating Iran's argument that it needs its own nuclear fuel program.

The bill, passed by voice vote, gives the president authority to make voluntary contributions to the International Atomic Energy Agency to set up the bank that would guarantee reactor fuel to qualifying countries.

Countries seeking to purchase from the reserve would have to meet IAEA safeguards and refrain from operating uranium enrichment or spent-fuel reprocessing facilities.

"This bill is a dramatic step forward in the epic struggle to contain the spread of nuclear arms around the globe," said House Foreign Affairs Committee Chairman Tom Lantos, D-Calif., adding that it would "expose the subterfuge that we know Iran is perpetrating in order to further its nuclear weapons pursuit."



N Korea Invites UN to Nuclear Shutdown
(Song Jung-a and Demetri Sevastopulo, Financial Times)

Sunday, June 17
North Korea has invited UN nuclear inspectors to discuss shutting down its Yongbyon nuclear reactor, in the first step towards implementing an international agreement aimed at disarming the communist state.

Pyongyang made the move when it became clear that it would soon receive $25m in previously frozen funds that had been a major obstacle to implementing the nuclear deal reached in February at six-party talks between the US, China, Russia, Japan and the two Koreas.

The announcement sets the stage for a test of whether North Korea intends to move forward on the February agreement. President George W. Bush had reportedly become impatient that his team were having so much difficulty arranging the transfer of the money.

“This is a good step and we all want to move forward with our obligations at a good speed,” said Gordon Johndroe, spokesman for the White House national security council.

The International Atomic Energy Agency is set to announce on Monday that it is sending a team of inspectors to North Korea to confirm that the Yongbyon reactor is shut down.



India Softens Missile Power for US
(CNN-IBN)

Tuesday, June 19
India has put its programme to develop inter-continental ballistic missiles (ICBM) on hold and has capped it to a maximum range of 5,000 km for now.

The country declared in April that it has the capacity to develop ICBMs—a requirement for recognition as a nuclear weapons power. Sources in the Defence Research and Development Organisation (DRDO) told CNN IBN that the government has given instructions to stop development work on the ICBM, which has a range of more than 5,500 km.

Capping missile capability at 5,000 km sends a message that India is not targeting anything beyond Asia. Sources correlated this move with the Indo-US talks on the civilian nuclear deal being poised delicately. Strategic experts slammed the government for capping the programme.

The Defence Ministry did not deny CNN-IBN’s report and in a vaguely worded statement its spokesperson said: "There are no instructions from the Government to DRDO scientists. The missile development programme is going on as per the requirements of the Centre."

The Indo US nuclear deal would give India de facto recognition as a nuclear weapons power. But there is a clear sense of unease in Washington over India's growing missile power. And India is sending a placatory message that its missile programme is for its immediate security requirements alone.



'No Move to Cap Long-Range Missiles'
(Hindu)

Tuesday, June 19
The Government on Monday made it clear that there was no move to cap the range and reach of the country’s surface-to-surface missiles.

“There are no instructions from the Government to defence scientists on missile development programme,” a Defence Ministry spokesman said here, reacting to reports that India had decided to cap the range of long-range missiles to only 5,000 km distance.

“The missile programme is going on as per security requirements of the country,” he said.






Click here [or visit http://www.carnegieendowment.org/resources...?fa=newsletters] to go to the Newsletter signup page to subscribe or unsubscribe. For questions and comments, please contact proliferationnews@carnegieendowment.org.