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Snuffysmith

Holocaust Denial, American Style

Mark Weisbrot, AlterNet

War on Iraq: Institutionally unwilling to consider America's responsibility for the bloodbath, the traditional media have refused to acknowledge the massive number of Iraqis killed since the invasion.


Trying to Stop the Other Invasion of Iraq

Cam Sylvester, The Tyee

War on Iraq: Inside Turkey's risky anti-war movement.


How Will Pakistani Conflict Impact the World?

Paul Staniland, MIT Center for International Studies

ForeignPolicy: The conflicts on the Afghan border and within Musharraf's dictatorship could have a large rippling effect in neighboring countries and abroad.
Snuffysmith
17.11.07

How to Get Out?

THE ANNAPOLIS conference is a joke. Though not in the least funny.

Like quite a lot of political initiatives, this one too, according to
all the indications, started more or less by accident. George Bush was
due to make a speech. He was looking for a theme that would give it some
substance. Something that would divert attention away from his fiascos
in Iraq and Afghanistan. Something simple, optimistic, easy to swallow.

Somehow, the idea of a "meeting" of leaders to promote the
Israeli-Palestinian "process" came up. An international meeting is
always nice - it looks good on television, it provides plenty of
photo-opportunities, it radiates optimism. We meet, ergo we exist.

So Bush voiced the idea: a "meeting" for the promotion of peace between
Israel and the Palestinians.

Without any preceding strategic planning, any careful preparations,
anything much at all.

That's why Bush did not go into any details: no clear aim, no agenda, no
location, no date, no list of invitees. Just an ethereal meeting. This
fact by itself testifies to the lack of seriousness of the entire
enterprise.

This may shock people who have never seen close up how politics are
actually conducted. It is hard to accept the intolerable lightness with
which decisions are often made, the irresponsibility of leaders and the
arbitrary way important processes are set in motion.


FROM THE MOMENT this idea was launched, it could not be called back. The
President has spoken, the initiative starts on its way. As the saying
goes: One fool throws a stone into the water, a dozen wise men cannot
retrieve it.

Once the "meeting" had been announced, it became an important
enterprise. The experts of all parties started to work frantically on
the undefined event, each trying to steer it in the direction which
would benefit them the most.

- Bush and Condoleezza Rice want an impressive event, to prove that the
United States is vigorously promoting peace and democracy, and that they
can succeed where the great Henry Kissinger failed. Jimmy Carter failed
to turn the Israeli-Egyptian peace into an Israeli-Palestinian peace.
Bill Clinton failed at Camp David. If Bush succeeds where all his
illustrious predecessors have failed, won't that show who is the
greatest of them all?

- Ehud Olmert urgently needs a resounding political achievement in order
to blur the memory of his dismal failure in the Second Lebanon War and
to extricate himself from the dozen or so criminal investigations for
corruption that are pursuing him. His ambition knows no bounds: he wants
to be photographed shaking the hand of the King of Saudi Arabia. A feat
no Israeli prime minister before him has achieved.

- Mahmoud Abbas wants to show Hamas and the rebellious factions in his
own Fatah movement that he can succeed where the great Yasser Arafat
failed - to be accepted among the world's leaders as an equal partner.

This could, therefore, become a great, almost historic conference, if …


IF ALL these hopes were something more than pipedreams. None of them has
any substance. For one simple reason: no one of the three partners has
any capital at his disposal.

- Bush is bankrupt. In order to succeed at Annapolis, he would have to
exert intense pressure on Israel, to compel it to take the necessary
steps: agree to the establishment of a real Palestinian state, give up
East Jerusalem, restore the Green Line border (with some small swaps of
territory), find an agreed-upon compromise formula for the refugee issue.

But Bush is quite unable to exert the slightest pressure on Israel, even
if he wanted to. In the US, the election season has already begun, and
the two big parties are bulwarks standing in the way of any pressure on
Israel. The Jewish and Evangelistic lobbies, together with the neo-cons,
will not allow one critical word about Israel to be uttered unpunished.

- Olmert is in an even weaker position. His coalition still survives
only because there is no alternative in the present Knesset. It includes
elements that in any other country would be called fascist (For
historical reasons, Israelis don't like to use this term). He is
prevented by his partners from making any compromise, however tiny -
even if he wanted to reach an agreement.

This week, the Knesset adopted a bill that requires a two-thirds
majority for any change of the borders of Greater Jerusalem. This means
that Olmert cannot even give up one of the outlying Palestinian villages
that were annexed to Jerusalem in 1967. He is also prevented from even
approaching the 'core issues" of the conflict.

- Mahmoud Abbas cannot move away from the conditions laid down by Yasser
Arafat (the 3rd anniversary of whose death was commemorated this week).
If he strays from the straight and narrow, he will fall. He has already
lost the Gaza Strip, and can lose the West Bank, too. On the other side,
if he threatens violence, he will lose all he has got: the favor of Bush
and the cooperation of the Israeli security forces.

The three poker players are going to sit down together, pretending to
start the game, while none of them has a cent to put on the table.


THE MAJESTIC mountain seems to be getting smaller and smaller by the
minute. It's against the laws of nature: the closer we get to it, the
smaller it seems. What looked to many like a veritable Mt. Everest first
turned into an ordinary mountain, then into a hill, and now it hardly
looks like an anthill. And even that is shrinking, too.

First the participants were to deal with the "core issues". Then it was
announced that a weighty declaration of intentions was to be adopted.
Then a mere collection of empty phrases was proposed. Now even that is
in doubt.

Not one of the three leaders is still dreaming of an achievement. All
they hope for now is to minimize the damage - but how to get out of a
situation like this?

As usual, our side is the most creative at this task. After all, we are
experts in building roadblocks, walls and fences. This week, an obstacle
larger then the Great Wall of China appeared.

Ehud Olmert demanded that, before any negotiations, the Palestinians
"recognize Israel as a Jewish state". He was followed by his coalition
partner, the ultra-right Avigdor Liberman, who proposed staying away
from Annapolis altogether if the Palestinians do not fulfill this demand
in advance.

Let's examine this condition for a moment:

The Palestinians are not required to recognize the state of Israel.
After all, they have already done so in the Oslo agreement - in spite of
the fact that Israel has yet to recognize the right of the Palestinians
to a state of their own based on the Green Line borders.

No, the government of Israel demands much more: the Palestinians must
now recognize Israel as a "Jewish state".

Does the USA demand to be recognized as a "Christian" or "Anglo-Saxon
state"? Did Stalin demand that the US recognize the Soviet Union as a
"Communist state"? Does Poland demand to be recognized as a "Catholic
state", or Pakistan as an "Islamic state"? Is there any precedent at all
for a state to demand the recognition of its domestic regime?

The demand is ridiculous per se. But this can easily be shown by
analysis ad absurdum.

What is a "Jewish state"? That has never been spelled out. Is it a state
with a majority of Jewish citizens? Is it "the state of the Jewish
people" - meaning the Jews from Brooklyn, Paris and Moscow? Is it "a
state belonging to the Jewish religion" - and if so, does it belong to
secular Jews as well? Or perhaps it belongs only to Jews under the Law
of Return - i.e. those with a Jewish mother who have not converted to
another religion?

These questions have not been decided. Are the Palestinians required to
recognize something that is the subject of debate in Israel itself?

According to the official doctrine, Israel is a "Jewish and democratic
state". What should the Palestinians do if, according to democratic
principles, some day my opinion prevails and Israel becomes an "Israeli
state" that belongs to all its citizens - and to them alone? (After all,
the US belongs to all its citizens, including Hispanic-Americans,
African-Americans, not to mention "Native-Americans".)

The sting is, of course, that this formula is quite unacceptable to
Palestinians because it would hurt the million and a half Palestinians
who are Israeli citizens. The definition "Jewish state" turns them
automatically into - at best - second class citizens. If Mahmoud Abbas
and his colleagues were to accede to this demand, they would be sticking
a knife in the backs of their own relatives.

Olmert & Co. know this, of course. They are not posing this demand in
order to get it accepted. They pose it in order that it not be accepted.
By this ploy they hope to avoid any obligation to start meaningful
negotiations.

Moreover, according to the deceased Road Map, which all parties pretend
to accept, Israel must dismantle all settlements set up after March,
2000, and freeze all the others. Olmert is quite unable to do that. At
the same time, Mahmoud Abbas must destroy the "terror infrastructure".
Abbas can't do that either - as long as there is no independent
Palestinian state with an elected government.

I imagine Bush tossing and turning in his bed at night, cursing the
speechwriter who put this miserable sentence into his mouth. On their
way to heaven, his curses must be mingling with those of Olmert and Abbas.


WHEN THE leaders of the Jewish community in Palestine were about to sign
the Declaration of independence on May 14, 1948, the document was not
ready. Sitting in front of the cameras and history, they had to sign on
an empty page. I am afraid that something like that will happen in
Annapolis.

And then all of them will head back to their respective homes, heaving a
heartfelt sigh of relief.

Snuffysmith
Baghdad feels like a military base."

--Kareem Sadi Haadi, a Sunni civil engineer; cited in Sudarsan Raghavan,
'Returnees Find a Capital Transformed: Security Is Better, But Freedoms Are
Tempered by Fear' (Washington Post, November 23)
http://www.washingtonpost.com/wp-dyn/conte...2201568_pf.html

'[B]ases, rather than colonies, have long been the American way of empire.'

--Tom Engelhardt, ?A Permanent Military Empire? (Nation, June 8, 2007)
http://www.thenation.com/doc/20070625/engelhardt
Snuffysmith
http://thinkprogress.org/2007/11/23/perle-iraq-wrong/

<h2 class="title">Richard Perle: ‘I Don’t Believe I Was Wrong’ About Iraq</h2> Appearing on BBC’s Hardtalk with Stephen Sackur this weekend, Iraq war architect Richard Perle attempted, on the one hand, to distance himself from the failures of the Iraq war, and on the other hand, to claim it was a fantastic success.

“I’m not happy about the way events have unfolded in Iraq,” Perle began. But when asked whether he felt a “sense of personal responsibility” for what has happened in the aftermath of the invasion, Perle said “I certainly don’t consider myself responsible” for the disastrous post-war occupation of Iraq.

Asked whether he was wrong on Iraq, Perle gave this response:

Well, I don’t believe I was wrong. Let me be very clear about that. What I think happened is that a successful invasion was turned into an unsuccessful occupation. I didn’t favor the occupation strategy. I think the occupation was a mistake.

Perle also defended his pre-war claim that regime change in Iraq would bring about “dancing in the streets.” “Essentially,” there was, said Perle. “The Iraqis actually tend to shoot weapons in the air rather than dance in the streets,” he observed. “But we were regarded as liberators at the beginning.” Watch it:

Before the war, Perle advocated simply bombing and leaving Iraq. “We do not have to go into Baghdad,” he said in Oct. 2002 on NBC. “We do not have to engage in door-to-door, street-to-street fighting.”

But once the war began, Perle specifically endorsed the Paul Bremer-led occupation of Iraq. And repeatedly claimed it was producing good results. Appearing on Fox News on April 7, 2004, Perle said, “We’re making so much progress with most Iraqis that those who feel threatened by the progress are more devoted and more energetic than ever to try to destroy the progress we’re making.”

Snuffysmith
The general has no uniform

Pakistani leader Pervez Musharraf is poised to be sworn in as a civilian president after eight years as a military ruler. In that time, especially in the past months, he has been the United States' loyal servant in the region's "war on terror". In following the agenda of the Bush administration, though, Musharraf is losing not only his uniform, he is losing his hold on the country. - Syed Saleem Shahzad (Nov 21, '07)

Bin Laden talks of victory, not defeat
Osama bin Laden's latest message to the people of Iraq has been widely interpreted as an attempt to rally al-Qaeda's fading forces. The opposite is true; bin Laden is already thinking ahead to victory, and warning all Iraqi mujahideen - Sunni and Shi'ite - that the hardest task is yet to come: the creation of an Islamist state in Iraq. - Michael Scheuer (Nov 21, '07)

Maliki thrown a political lifeline
The expected return after a walkout of the leading Sunni group, the Iraqi Accordance Front, to Nuri al-Maliki's government signals a remarkable change in fortunes for the prime minister, who for months has appeared on his way out. Pressure from Saudi Arabia and Jordan has helped the Front change its mind, as well as fear of other Sunni groups. - Sami Moubayed (Nov 21, '07)

Fears grow of post-'surge' woes
In terms of violence in Iraq, the troop "surge" is working. Most people agree with that. Where they disagree is on its long-term effects, which some argue has made the long-term goal of the policy - national reconciliation - more unlikely than ever. - Jim Lobe (Nov 21, '07)
Snuffysmith
Eyes back on Fed for emergency rate cut
The US Federal Reserve can't seem to make up its mind whether America's economy is in trouble or not, while everyone else knows that a recession is touch and go. If the housing "adjustment" turns into a rout, it will be too late for the Fed to cut interest rates enough to save the economy from a bad episode of stagflation. - Peter Morici
Snuffysmith

Surprise, Surprise: Yet More Evidence that the Majority of Foreign Fighters in Iraq Come from Saudi Arabia

By Evan Kohlmann


Almost since the beginning of the Sunni insurgency in Iraq in late 2003, there has been an ongoing public debate about the significance and origins of foreign-born jihadists who have traveled to Iraq intent upon joining Al-Qaida and killing Americans and Muslim "apostates". Despite a veritable avalanche of evidence suggesting that these foreign fighters have had a disproportionate role in destabilizing Iraq and that a large cross-section (if not outright majority) of these fighters are coming from Saudi Arabia, a host of journalists and experts have wasted no effort in downplaying their impact. Regular readers of the Counterterrorism Blog will recall Jonathan Finer's article in the Washington Post, similar pieces published in the Christian Science Monitor, and a litany of commentary from Tony Cordesman (based almost entirely upon facts spoon-fed to him by Saudi intelligence and paid Saudi lobbyists).

Yet, now, it seems that the evidence of the involvement of Saudi Al-Qaida recruits in the Iraqi insurgency has become so plainly obvious that even the New York Times has taken note. In an article published this week, Times writer Richard Oppel cites statistics derived from a "trove of documents and computers discovered in September, when American forces raided a tent camp in the desert near Sinjar, close to the Syrian border", featuring a "collection of biographical sketches that listed hometowns and other details for more than 700 fighters brought into Iraq since August 2006." According to the Times article, at least 305 of those biographies--or 41%--were of fighters from Saudi Arabia: "Among the Saudi fighters described in the materials, 45 had come from Riyadh, 38 from Mecca, 20 from Buraidah and the surrounding area, 15 from Jawf and Sakakah, 13 from Jidda, and 12 from Medina." Compare this to Tony Cordesman's suggestion in his 2005 report on the Iraqi insurgency that Saudi nationals represent only 12% of the total number of foreign fighters. Quite obviously, Cordesman's estimate was way, way too low.

I should add that the latest evidence cited in the New York Times is hardly an incredible revelation. Other independent researchers--such as Reuven Paz and myself--who rely primarily on information obtained directly from insurgent groups--have long pointed to Saudi Arabia as the main source of Al-Qaida's recruits in Iraq. The evidence is almost unmistakable--in the form of countless video recordings, photographs, interviews, and written testimonials. Our motivation for reporting these facts has not been political or financial, but out of a genuine concern that one of America's closest allies in the Middle East has been nearly as unhelpful in Iraq (wittingly or unwittingly) as the regimes who have been routinely painted as America's most troublesome regional adversaries, namely Syria and Iran. Indeed, as noted by the New York Times piece, "whatever aid Iran provides to militias inside Iraq does not seem to extend to supplying actual combatants: only 11 Iranians are in American detention, United States officials say." I rarely find myself in agreement with Juan Cole on the issue of foreign fighters in Iraq, but even I can admit that he makes a fair argument when he points out: "Which country is providing a lot of foreign suicide bombers? US ally Saudi Arabia. Has any general or Bush administration official called a press conference to denounce Saudi Arabia? No. Has Joe Lieberman threatened it with a war? No. Everything is being blamed on Iran... regardless of the facts."

On a related note, I've been asked to write a piece about Iraq's foreign fighters for a new monthly publication produced by West Point's Combating Terrorism Center and slated to debut in January. I'm really looking forward to this opportunity, because I intend to publish for the first time some of the actual conversations I have had with the friends and families of Saudi foreign fighters who were killed while fighting alongside Al-Qaida in Iraq over the past four years. I would advise those who have been so quick to dismiss these fighters as "insignificant" (or even an outright "myth") to speak with these individuals first before jumping to more hasty conclusions.

November 23, 2007 07:45 PM Link
Snuffysmith
VIKRAM AMAR AND ALAN BROWNSTEIN The Eleven-Million-Dollar Judgment Against the Westboro Baptist Church For Protesting At a Funeral: Did It Violate the First Amendment? U.C. Davis professors Vikram Amar, a FindLaw columnist, and Alan Brownstein, a FindLaw guest columnist, discuss the controversial recent verdict against a church group that protested at the funeral of a soldier who died in Iraq; the group claimed that American soldiers are dying as punishment for Americans' tolerance for homosexuality. The soldier's father successfully sued on claims of invasion of privacy and intentional infliction of emotional distress, receiving almost $3 million in compensatory damages and $8 million in punitive damages from a jury. Should the jury verdict be reversed on the ground that it violates the First Amendment? Amar and Brownstein debate the possibility that to carve out a First Amendment exception for cases like this one may have broader ramifications for other, more sympathetic kinds of protests.
Snuffysmith

Preventing the Impending War on Iran - by Prof. Marjorie Cohn - 2007-11-23

The Financial Tsunami: Sub-Prime Mortgage Debt is but the Tip of the Iceberg- by F. William Engdahl - 2007-11-23


Manufacturing Consent for World War III- by Michael Barker - 2007-11-22


Radioactive Ammunition Fired in Middle East May Claim More Lives Than Hiroshima and Nagasaki

- by Sherwood Ross - 2007-11-22
Law and Resistance: The Republic in Crisis and the People’s Response- by Prof. Francis A. Boyle - 2007-11-22

Dollar Crash: The Real Challenge For OPEC - by Muriel Mirak-Weissbach - 2007-11-22


Iraq's Laboratory of Repression- by Robert Parry - 2007-11-22
Snuffysmith
Pentagon Insider has dire warning
by Dr. Daniel Ellsberg
Global Research, November 19, 2007 American Free Press
Email this article to a friend Print this article
Daniel Ellsberg, the former Defense Department analyst who leaked the secret Pentagon Papers history of the Vietnam War, offered insights into the looming attack on Iran and the loss of liberty in the United States at a recent American University symposium. What follow are his comments from that speech. They have been edited only for space.

Let me simplify . . . and not just to be rhetorical: A coup has occurred. I woke up the other day realizing, coming out of sleep, that a coup has occurred. It’s not just a question that a coup lies ahead with the next 9-11. That’s the next coup that completes the first.

The last five years have seen a steady assault on every fundamental of our Constitution . . . what the rest of the world looked at for the last 200 years as a model and experiment to the rest of the world—in checks and balances, limited government, Bill of Rights, individual rights protected from majority infringement by the Congress, an independent judiciary, the possibility of impeachment.

There have been violations of these principles by many presidents before. Most of the specific things that Bush has done in the way of illegal surveillance and other matters were done under my boss Lyndon Johnson in the Vietnam War: the use of CIA, FBI, NSA against Americans.

All these violations were impeachable had they been found out at the time but in nearly every case the violations were not found out until [the president was] out of office so we didn’t have the exact challenge that we have today.

That was true with the first term of Nixon and certainly of Johnson, Kennedy and others. They were impeachable. They weren’t found out in time. But I think it was not their intention, in the crisis situations that they felt justified their actions, to change our form of government.

It is increasingly clear with each new book and each new leak that comes out, that Richard Cheney and his now chief of staff David Addington have had precisely that in mind since at least the early 1970s. Not just since 1992, not since 2001, but [they] have believed in executive government, single-branch government under an executive president—elected or not—with unrestrained powers. They did not believe in restraint.

When I say this, I’m not saying they are traitors. I don’t think they have in mind allegiance to some foreign power or have a desire to help a foreign power. I believe they have in their own minds a love of this country and what they think is best for this country—but what they think is best is directly and consciously at odds with what the Founders of this country [and the Framers of the Constitution] thought.

They believe we need a different kind of government now, an executive government essentially, rule by decree, which is what we’re getting with ‘signing statements.’

Signing statements are talked about as line-item vetoes which is one [way] of describing them which are unconstitutional in themselves, but in other ways are just saying the president says: ‘I decide what I enforce. I decide what the law is. I legislate.’

It’s [the same] with the military commissions, courts that are under the entire control of the executive branch, essentially of the president—a concentration of legislative, judicial, and executive powers in one branch, which is precisely what the founders meant to avert, and tried to avert and did avert to the best of their ability in the Constitution.”

Now I’m appealing to that as a crisis right now not just because it is a break in tradition but because I believe in my heart and from my experience that on this point the Founders had it right. It’s not just ‘our way of doing things’— it was a crucial perception on the corruption of power to anybody, including Americans.

On procedures and institutions that might possibly keep that power under control because the alternative was what we have just seen, wars like Vietnam, wars like Iraq, wars like the one coming.

That brings me to the second point. This executive branch, under specifically Bush and Cheney, despite opposition [even] from most of the rest of the branch, even of the cabinet, clearly intends a war against Iran, which, even by imperialist standards, [violates] standards in other words which were accepted not only by nearly everyone in the executive branch but most of the leaders in Congress.

The interests of the empire, the need for hegemony, our right to control and our need to control the oil of the Middle East and many other places. That is consensual in our establishment. …

But even by those standards, an attack on Iran is insane. And I say that quietly, I don’t mean it to be heard as rhetoric. Of course it’s not only aggression and a violation of international law, a supreme international crime, but it is by imperial standards, insane in terms of the consequences.

Does that make it impossible? No, it obviously doesn’t; it doesn’t even make it unlikely.

That is because two things come together that with the acceptance for various reasons of the Congress—Democrats and Republicans—and the public and the media, we have freed the White House — the president and the vice president—from virtually any restraint by Congress, courts, media, public, whatever.

And on the other hand, the people who have this unrestrained power are crazy. Not entirely, but they have crazy beliefs.

And the question is what then, can we do about this?

We are heading toward an insane operation. It is not certain. [But it] is likely.… I want to try to be realistic myself here, to encourage us to do what we must do, what is needed to be done with the full recognition of the reality. Nothing is impossible.

What I’m talking about in the way of a police state, in the way of an attack on Iran, is not certain. Nothing is certain, actually. However, I think it is probable, more likely than not, that in the next 15, 16 months of this administration we will see an attack on Iran. Probably. Whatever we do.

And . . . we will not succeed in moving Congress, probably, and Congress probably will not stop the president from doing this. And that’s where we’re heading. That’s a very ugly, ugly prospect.

However, I think it’s up to us to work to increase that small, perhaps—anyway not large—possibility and probability to avert this within the next 15 months, aside from the effort that we have to make for the rest of our lives.

Getting back the constitutional government and improving it will take a long time. And I think if we don’t get started now, it won’t be started under the next administration.

Getting out of Iraq will take a long time. Averting Iran and averting a further coup in the face of a 9-11, another attack, is for right now, it can’t be put off. It will take a kind of political and moral courage of which we have seen very little.

We have a really unusual concentration here and in this audience, of people who have in fact changed their lives, changed their position, lost their friends to a large extent, risked and experienced being called terrible names, ‘traitor,’ ‘weak on terrorism’—names that politicians will do anything to avoid being called.

How do we get more people in the government and in the public at large to change their lives now in a crisis in a critical way? How do we get Nancy Pelosi and Harry Reid for example? What kinds of pressures, what kinds of influences can be brought to bear to get Congress to do their jobs? It isn’t just doing their jobs. Getting them to obey their oaths of office.

I took an oath many times, an oath of office as a Marine lieutenant, as an official in the Defense Department, as an official in the State Department as a Foreign Service officer. A number of times I took an oath of office which is the same oath of office taken by every member of Congress and every official in the United States and every officer in the armed services.

And that oath is not to a commander in chief, which is not [even] mentioned. It is not to a Fuehrer. It is not even to superior officers. The oath is precisely to protect and uphold the Constitution of the United States.

Now that is an oath I violated every day for years in the Defense Department without realizing it when I kept my mouth shut when I knew the public was being lied into a war as they were lied into Iraq, as they are being lied into war in Iran.

I knew that I had the documents that proved it, and I did not put it out then. I was not obeying my oath, which I eventually came to do.

I’ve often said that Lt. Ehren Watada—who still faces trial for refusing to obey orders to deploy to Iraq which he correctly perceives to be an unconstitutional and aggressive war—is the single officer in the United States armed services who is taking seriously [the matter of] upholding his oath.

The president is clearly violating that oath, of course. [All the personnel] under him who understand what is going on — and there are myriad — are violating their oaths. And that’s the standard that I think we should be asking of people.

On the Democratic side, on the political side, I think we should be demanding of our Democratic leaders in the House and Senate—and frankly of the Republicans —that it is not their highest single absolute priority to be reelected or to maintain a Democratic majority so that Pelosi can still be speaker of the House and Reid can be in the Senate, or to increase that majority.

I’m not going to say that for politicians they should ignore that, or that they should do something else entirely, or that they should not worry about that. Of course that will be and should be a major concern of theirs, but they’re acting like it’s their sole concern. Which is business as usual. “We have a majority, let’s not lose it, let’s keep it. Let’s keep those chairmanships.”

Exactly what have those chairmanships done for us to save the Constitution in the last couple of years?

I am shocked by the Republicans today that I read [about] in The Washington Post who threatened a filibuster if we … get back habeas corpus. The ruling out of habeas corpus with the help of the Democrats did not get us back to George the First it got us back to before King John 700 years ago in terms of counter-revolution.

I think we’ve got to somehow get home to them [in Congress] that this is the time for them to uphold the oath, to preserve the Constitution, which is worth struggling for in part because it’s only with the power that the Constitution gives Congress responding to the public, only with that can we protect the world from madmen in power in the White House who intend an attack on Iran.

And the current generation of American generals and others who realize that this will be a catastrophe have not shown themselves —they might be people who in their past lives risked their bodies and their lives in Vietnam or elsewhere, like [Colin] Powell, and would not risk their career or their relations with the president to the slightest degree.

That has to change. And it’s the example of people like those up here who somehow brought home to our representatives that they as humans and as citizens have the power to do likewise and find in themselves the courage to protect this country and protect the world. Thank you.”


Daniel Ellsberg is a frequent contributor to Global Research. Global Research Articles by Daniel Ellsberg
Snuffysmith
It’s the Tribes, Stupid! – Robert Kaplan, The Atlantic
Don't Dismiss Arab Public Sentiment - Rami Khouri, Daily Star
The War in WashingtonChicago Tribune editorial
How Goes the War? – Paul Greenberg, Washington Times
Benching Iraq Benchmarks – Charles Krauthammer, National Review
Through Iraq’s Cloud Cover – Victor Davis Hanson, Washington Times
Thinking Beyond Annapolis Peace Conference? – New York Times editorial
Feint Hopes for Middle East PeaceLondon Daily Telegraph editorial
Making this Mideast Summit Worthwhile - Los Angeles Times editorial
Annapolis: Low Expectations for PeacePittsburgh Post-Gazette editorial
A Separate Peace with SyriaBoston Globe editorial
Middle East Peace Remains Elusive - Shlomo Ben-Ami, Daily Star
America Holds Key to Mideast Peace - Anatol Lieven, Financial Times
Careful Wishing on Pakistan - Viola Herms Drath, Washington Times
Looking Toward Zimbabwe’s Future – Michelle Gavin, Washington Post
The Colombia Comeback – Rich Lowry, National Review
Venezuela's Path to Self-Destruction - William Ratliff, Los Angeles Times
Brown Must Think Again About MilitaryLondon Times editorial
Defence Underfunded for Years – Charles Guthrie, London Daily Telegraph
Let Gaddafi Pitch His TentLondon Times editorial
A World without Nukes - Inderfurth and Riedel, Boston Globe
Railroading a Journalist in Iraq – Tom Curley, Washington Post

Snuffysmith
A Great Stage that Should Not be Missed by Rami G. Khouri
The Bush administration's Annapolis conference is turning into a confused and imprecise summit. Therefore, the Arab world should respond to it with clarity and confidence.
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China's Billionaire Bubble by Peter Kwong
There are dozens of new billionaires in China. But they are riding a severe stock market bubble -- as are the savings and investments of millions of the new Chinese middle class. Disaster awaits.
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What Does Putin Want? by Immanuel Wallerstein
Vladimir Putin criticizes the United States for the abuses of its unipolar geopolitics, and he warns Europe of a "cold war"-like European re-militarization. But ultimately, he is relying on global economic changes that will bring multipolarity to the world.
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Snuffysmith
A Plan to Attack Iran Swiftly and From Above

By Paul Koring

A bombing campaign has been in the works for months - a blistering air war that would last anywhere from one day to two weeks. Continue

UN Official says Israel's Siege of Gaza Breeds Extremism and Human Suffering

By Donald Macintyre in Jerusalem

A senior United Nations official has issued an unprecedented appeal to British MPs to use their influence to try to alleviate the impact of "indiscriminate" and "illegal" Israeli sanctions in Gaza which display "profound inhumanity" and are "serving the agenda of extremists". Continue

Gaza's Reality

Video Runtime 5 minutes

Would you be able to live like this? Click to view

Annapolis: How to Get Out?

By Uri Avnery.
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THE ANNAPOLIS conference is a joke. Though not in the least funny. Continue

Land of Broken Dreams

By Eugene Robinson

The American self-image is suffused with the golden glow of opportunity. We think of the United States as a land of unlimited possibility, not so much a classless society, but as a place where class is mutable—a place where brains, energy and ambition are what counts, not the circumstances of one’s birth. But three important new studies suggest that Horatio Alger doesn’t live here anymore. Continue

Snuffysmith

The Turbulent Winds of the Annapolis Conference
A Voyage Through Middle East Capitals Reveals the Suppressed Truths

by Dan Lieberman / November 24th, 2007

Discussing the proposed Annapolis Conference, in face-to-face talks with the prime ministers, foreign ministers and non-government officials (NGOs) of Israel, Palestinian Authority, Jordan, Syria and Lebanon, revealed how far we are from achieving peace in the Middle East and how far Annapolis is from the Earth that others walk upon. As part of a delegation of six intrepid fact finders, supported by the Council for the National Interest (CNI), a Washington based NGO that labors intensively to determine paths towards Middle East peace, I found a hopeful wind that moved Israeli and Palestinian to portray optimism. This hopeful wind slowly reduced in force in Jordan, quickly diminished when meeting Syrian vice-presidents and turned to an ill wind in meetings with the Lebanese president, prime minister and foreign minister in the second week of November. (Full article …)

Snuffysmith

Executions Not Leading to Reconciliation
by Ali al-Fadhily / November 24th, 2007

BAGHDAD, Nov 22 (IPS) - The executions of former regime officials are creating greater division, rather than reconciliation, among Iraqis. (Full article …)

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Darfurism, Uganda and the U.S. War in Africa
The Spectre of Continental Genocide

by Keith Harmon Snow / November 24th, 2007

President Bush met with Uganda’s President-for-life Yoweri Museveni in the White House on October 30, 2007. Meanwhile, a broad swath of Africa is engulfed in interrelated genocides and covert operations involving both the U.S. and Uganda, there is a growing demand to probe the accounts of “Save Darfur” to find out how the tens of millions collected are being spent due to allegations of arms-deals and bribery, and the “Save Darfur” movement has become the false flag action of the West, supported by most everyone, people who know little or nothing about what it is they are supporting. (Full article …)

Snuffysmith

The Bad Karma of Imperialism

Killing the Buddha in Pakistan's Swat Valley
By GARY LEUPP

The Swat District in Pakistan's Northwestern Frontier Province, dominated by the Swat Valley, watered by the River Swat, surrounded by snow-capped mountains rising as high as 20,000 feet, has been compared to Switzerland in its breathtaking beauty. Only 684 square miles in area (two-thirds the size of Rhode Island), with a population of 1.5 million, it has little commercial agriculture or industry but is rich in history as well as natural scenery. Until recently, it has been a mecca for the archeologist and for the tourist. Both are drawn largely by the presence of Buddhist artifacts, including great Buddhas carved into the mountainside, similar to those crafted 1500 years ago in Bamiyan, Afghanistan.

Conquered by Alexander the Greek and his Macedonians in the 320s BCE, this region became part of the Mauryan Empire. Emperor Ashoka in the mid-third century BCE promoted the spread of Buddhism here, and in the second century BCE the local Greek King Menander may have been a convert. (The Questions of Menander---supposedly a conversation between the king and a Buddhist monk---is unique among ancient Buddhist texts in its dialogue form, characteristic of Greek philosophical texts, and may have actually been composed originally in Greek.) Later the Kushan Empire centering on the Gandhara region encouraged the emergence of an Indo-Greek Buddhist style of sculpture. The Swat Valley was at the cutting edge of one of the most extraordinary syntheses in art history: Buddhist content and classical realistic western sculpture. The Buddha, earlier represented symbolically (as a footprint), came to be depicted as a Greek deity or king, standing or seated in meditation.

This, for example, is the 23-foot high Buddha of Jenanabad, one of the finest examples of Gandharan art, as it appeared until recently.

Here's how it has looked since October 8.



Remember how the Taliban destroyed the giant Buddhas of Bamiyan, in Afghanistan, in March 2001? Well, this Buddha in Swat was attacked twice last September by forces led by a local cleric named Maulana Fazlullah, who heads the "Movement for the Enforcement of Islamic Law," aligned with the Taliban. On October 8, the Pakistani Talibs succeeded in obliterating its face with dynamite. This was not widely reported in the U.S. press, perhaps because it would have so dramatically demonstrated how Taliban influence far from waning has spread outside Afghanistan, and is even leading some Pakistanis to attack their national treasures.

The Buddhist law of karma states that willed actions have inevitable consequences. Evil actions produce more evil. There is a strange karma at work nowadays, making everything worse everywhere in Southwest Asia. George Bush invaded Afghanistan in 2001, to capture Osama bin Laden "dead or alive," crush al-Qaeda and topple the Taliban regime. He in fact failed to capture bin Laden, and U.S. intelligence reports conclude that al-Qaeda is stronger now than in 2001. Meanwhile the Taliban relying on new recruits controls large swathes of Afghanistan, kills "Coalition" soldiers in record numbers (218 so far this year, including 111 Americans, compared with 191 including 98 Americans in 2006), and expands operations in Pakistan. The Taliban is rooted in the Pashtun tribes who straddle Afghanistan and Pakistan and have little use for the border. They are linked by a common language (Pashto) and culture centering around the Pashtunwali or traditional code of conduct (preceding even the arrival of Islam, which is to say dating at least to the Buddhist period) which more than any other value emphasizes hospitality to visitors (melmastia).

Perhaps the Bush administration didn't consider this when it drove al-Qaeda and the Taliban across the border during the Battle of Tora Bora in December 2001, or when in March 2002 Bush told a White House press conference in March 2002, "I truly am not that concerned about" bin Laden. Since March of this year administration officials have been voicing mounting alarm over Taliban and al-Qaeda gains in the border area, even speaking ominously about possible U.S. attacks on Pakistani soil. These statements have produced immediate denunciations from the Pakistani Foreign Ministry, partly no doubt to assure the public that the unpopular regime opposes an U.S. attack, and partly to dissuade Washington from attacks that would exacerbate the current anti-American sentiment in the country. This has risen precipitously in recent years.

The Pashtuns of the Northwestern Frontier provinces, including those of Swat, have plainly extended hospitality and provided sanctuary to many on the U.S. wanted list, probably including Mullah Mohammed Omar and Osama bin Laden. As the Taliban resurges in Afghanistan, it abets its progress, placing Pakistan's dictator Gen. Pervez Musharraf in a terrible bind. He has deployed troops unfamiliar with the region to attack local Taliban supporters, at Washington's insistence, but they have fared poorly and his efforts have only produced more local support for the Islamists and more opposition to his government. According to the New York Times, the U.S. Army's Special Operations Command plans to" train and equip the Pakistani Frontier Corps, a paramilitary force that has about 85,000 members coming mostly from border tribes" and to recruit Pakistani tribal leaders to fight al-Qaeda and the Taliban. But how will they do this in a region where bin Laden is even more highly admired than in Pakistan as a whole, where his approval rating as of September was 46 percent, compared with 38 percent for Musharraf and 9 percent for Bush?

Citing the growing security threat, Musharraf declared a state of emergency and suspended the Pakistani constitution November 3, prompting an all-around political crisis in a nuclear-armed close ally of the U.S. He had apparently planned to do this in August but was dissuaded by Washington. Now he is taking a big risk. He may fall, and the Islamist iconoclasts or their backers in the Pakistani military could move into a power vacuum, as Islamists gained control over Iran following the overthrow of the hated Shah. Or power might pass to Benazir Bhutto who would, like Musharraf, need to steer a careful course between cooperating with the U.S. in its "war on terror," and posing as a nationalist and defender of moderate Islam. In the face of near-universal hatred for the Bush administration in Pakistan, and suspicions that its war is in fact against Islam in general, the prospect for a Taliban seizure of power in parts of Pakistan is very real. The Bush administration, unable to control the events it has triggered, is in a state of consternation.

How did this happen? What are the causes and effects behind the Talibanization of the frontier? One can either trace the bad karma forwards or backwards. If we do the former, we might start with the first big U.S. intervention into Southwest Asian history: the CIA-orchestrated overthrow of the democratically elected government of Mohammed Mossadegh in Iran in 1953. (Having nationalized the country's oil industry, he was falsely declared a "Communist" by U.S. politicians and media.) But let's proceed backwards towards that point.

The al-Qaeda and Taliban presence in Pakistan stem from the U.S. invasion of Afghanistan.

The U.S. invasion of Afghanistan stemmed from the al-Qaeda 9-11 attacks on the U.S.

The al-Qaeda 9-11 attacks stemmed from the establishment of U.S. bases in Saudi Arabia (more than any other cause).

The establishment of U.S. bases in Saudi Arabia, which were never accepted by the Saudi people but seen as a travesty in the land of the holy sites of Mecca and Medina, stemmed from the U.S. decision to go to war with Iraq in 1990.
The first President Bush's decision to go to war with Iraq and destroy its military stemmed from Saddam Hussein's invasion of Kuwait.


That invasion of Kuwait stemmed mainly from quarrels between Iraq and Kuwait concerning Iraq's debt to the latter.

Iraq's debt to Kuwait stemmed from its heavy borrowing from its neighbor during the Iran-Iraq war of the 1980s, and Kuwait's refusal (backed by the U.S.) to forgive the debt after the war.

That war stemmed from Saddam's supposition that Iran was weak, and that Iraq could adjust the border between the two countries by military force.

Saddam's optimism stemmed in part from his two meetings during the war with Donald Rumsfeld, who offered and provided him with U.S. military assistance.
U.S. desire to assist Saddam stemmed from the policy objective of overthrowing the Iranian government.


This objective stemmed from the overthrow of the pro-U.S. Shah in 1979 and the emergence of an anti-U.S. Islamist regime.

The acquisition of power by the Islamist regime stemmed from the hatred of the Shah, who had been overthrown in 1979 in the most genuine, mass-based revolutionary upheaval in the history of the Muslim world.

The Shah's return to the throne 26 years earlier stemmed from a U.S. imperialist calculus that he would be the best man to look after U.S. interests in the Gulf region.

This is of course a simplified backwards-looking chronology. It leaves out a lot, including the deep background fact that the whole map of the Middle East was drawn up by British and French colonialists after World War I. (This is why Kuwait is separate from Iraq, why Kurdistan never became a state, why Lebanon's Christians wield disproportionate political power, etc.) Some might of course blame me for laying out a "blame America first" perspective covering the period from the CIA coup in Iran, but what government deserves more blame for the current crises from Lebanon to Pakistan? I might add that the very existence of al-Qaeda and the Taliban stem from the U.S. effort throughout the 1980s into the 90s to mobilize Islamists for a jihad against the Soviets and their allies in Afghanistan. The conscious deployment of jihadis versus secularist "communists" during the late Cold War era led directly to the emergence of such groups. The Afghan resistance lionized by Reagan was not by and large progressive in any sense; it opposed the education of girls, the establishment of clinics, land reform, curbs on clerics' powers, lifting of Islamic dress regulations. It was filled with religious fanatics as opposed to American as Soviet meddling in their affairs. After the Soviets were driven from Afghanistan, many wound up attacking the U.S. This is what the CIA calls "blowback." It's the bad karma of imperialism.

But back to the Swat Valley and its Buddhist heritage. Mullah Fazlulah, whose "Movement for the Enforcement of Islamic Law" dates back to the early 1990s, reportedly now has some 4,500 militants under his influence. He inveighs against UNESCO-administered polio inoculations, CD shops, and girls' schools, and apparently spearheads the effort to erase Swat's non-Muslim past. Anyone advocating U.S. strikes against Pakistan (a number of neocons have done so over the last nine months) will mention all these things in order to emphasize the enemy's caveman otherness. But we should ask such people: Why are the Mullah Fazlulahs on a roll right now? What is the cause, what is the effect?

Why do these religious fanatics want to target priceless, irreplaceable Buddhist art? Why have some Muslims in this region, who have lived contentedly in the shadow of these images for many centuries, only within recent years started blowing them up? (The last effort to destroy them was in the seventeenth century, during the reign of the uncommonly intolerant Moghul Emperor Aurangzeb.) According to Peshawar Museum archeologist Zainul Wahab, "the militants say [the statues] are 'symbols of evil.'" The Swat Islamists are aware that the Qur'an forbids the depiction of the human or animal forms in religious art (although some "miniature paintings" showing these in books has been allowed, notably in Shiite Persia) as a safeguard against idolatry. (See Qur'an 6:74, 14:35, 22:30, etc.) But why these actions, now?

The Bamiyan episode may hold some clues. In July 1999, Mullah Omar actually ordered that the Buddhas be preserved. They were not being used as objects of worship (there being no Buddhists in Afghanistan in centuries). Moreoever, "The government considers the Bamyan statues as an example of a potential major source of income for Afghanistan from international visitors. The Taliban states that Bamyan shall not be destroyed but protected." But in March 2001 a new decree called for the destruction of all such images. Mullah Omar explained to a Pakistani journalist in April 2004, "I did not want to destroy the Bamiyan Buddha. In fact, some foreigners came to me and said they would like to conduct the repair work of the Bamiyan Buddha that had been slightly damaged due to rains. This shocked me. I thought, these callous people have no regard for thousands of living human beings - the Afghans who are dying of hunger, but they are so concerned about non-living objects like the Buddha. This was extremely deplorable. That is why I ordered its destruction. Had they come for humanitarian work, I would have never ordered the Buddhas' destruction."

It sounds entirely illogical. The westerners, Omar reasons, were more concerned with saving a statue than with saving people in a country at war for sixteen years, vying with Ethiopia as the world's most impoverished state---and so the Bamiyan Buddhas must be destroyed. Totally irrational. But it indicates a connection between extreme Islamist actions and global power structures. Omar would not agree with this interpretation of recent history, but the fact is the Soviet Union, taken by surprise by the leftist coup in 1978 in Afghanistan but determined thereafter to support a secular, progressive modern regime, sent in troops in 1979 to protect that regime from backward Islamists like Omar. And the U.S. threw its weight enthusiastically behind the jihadis, half the CIA money flowing to the notorious warlord Gulbuddin Hekmatyar now targeted for assassination. In 1993 the Northern Alliance warlords (principally Tajiks and Uzbeks) captured the capital, castrated and hung the last secular ruler who had taken refuge at the UN compound, proclaimed victory over anti-Islamic forces and set about constructing their new order. They fell into infighting among themselves and Hekmatyar, a Pashtun at one point named Prime Minister, laid siege to Kabul. The chaos ended in 1996 when the Taliban, supported by Pakistani military intelligence, took the capital and imposed the draconian regime deposed in the U.S. attack five years later.

In the interim---between 1993 and 2001---the U.S. basically ignored Afghanistan. Washington had relished the opportunity to (as President Jimmy Carter's national security advisor Zbigniew Brzezinsky put it) "bleed the Soviets, the way they bled us in Vietnam." But once the Soviets were gone, the U.S. lost interest. It recognized the new Northern Alliance-dominated government, but provided little aid. Its principal interests in Afghanistan were "drugs and thugs" -- discouragement of opium production, and containment of mujahadeen who having ousted the Soviets were now venting hostility towards their former infidel allies. After the Taliban took power in 1996, the oil firm UNOCAL through its representative Zalmay Khalilzad hosted Taliban officials in the U.S. to discuss pipeline construction. Colin Powell negotiated an aid package specifically for opium eradication. But while U.S. allies Pakistan, Saudi Arabia and Oman recognized the Taliban and sent some aid, the U.S. and the west in general did little to alleviate hunger in Afghanistan. Hence, perhaps, the mullah's indignation.

He no doubt thinks the west doesn't have its priorities right. But is his thinking about art so distant from that of the architects of the Iraq War, who failed to protect the Baghdad Museum from looters, calling the looting "creative chaos"? Or the U.S. military whose vehicles have crushed artifacts in Babylon dating back to the time of King Nebuchadnezzar II? Or the U.S. troops who used the ninth-century Malwiya Minaret in Samarra as a lookout and sniper post, drawing a bomb attack that damaged its top tier? I don't sense that preservation of culture looms large among the priorities of the Bush administration; it's concerned with conquest, not art and religion. The Pakistani state meanwhile ostensibly seeks to preserve the Buddhist images of Swat. But as a police official at the police station closest to the Buddha of Jenanabad put it, "Due to the precarious law and order situation in the area we are confined to the police station and could not go to the place." The state is spread thin and its top priority is to protect itself.

So other Buddhist sites in Swat, including the Butkara stupa and Takht-i-Bahi Buddhist monastery ruins, remain under threat, at the mercy not only of religious fanaticism but the absence of a state apparatus preoccupied elsewhere. Both of these problems are aggravated by the U.S. invasion of the region. The current wave of Islamist violence was unleashed by U.S. imperialism, itself born out of capitalist competition between states dating way back to the nineteenth century. That's when the major western powers, having carved up China into concessions and colonized the Pacific, divided Africa and Southeast Asia. Russia and Britain vied for control of Afghanistan, with Britain ultimately winning control over its foreign affairs. But the British imperialists were unable to obtain colonial control of Afghanistan despite two bloody wars for that purpose (1839-42 and 1878-80). In May 1919 the Afghan khan Amanullah attacked British forces, who responded with the first aerial bombardment (on Kabul) in Afghanistan's history. Fighting ended inconclusively with an agreement in which Britain acknowledged Afghanistan's self-determination in its foreign relations. (That was just after revolutionary Russia had established relations with the country.)

In 1857, Friedrich Engels described the First Anglo-Afghan War as an "attempt of the British to set up a prince of their own making in Afghanistan" that was doomed due to the Afghans' "indomitable hatred of rule, and their love of independence." This I submit is an issue larger than any kind of religiosity. People don't like being invaded. They don't like it when their close kin across an artificial border created by imperialist mapmakers are invaded. The Pashtuns of the Swat Valley are angered by the toppling of the Taliban, and no doubt by U.S. support for Musharraf and by the U.S. invasion of Iraq. And if they are like Muslims throughout the Middle East, they turn to Islamic extremism in part due to frustration with poverty and lack of economic opportunity. These are the results of imperialist globalization; the Swat Valley is rich in minerals and has significant agricultural potential but the state has not promoted all-round development, relying instead on tourism. Outrage at military strikes, the growing civilian death toll in Afghanistan, and the lack of jobs and income in Swat combines with religious passion to attract young men into pro-Taliban groups. Now these groups are defying neocon plans for the region, rebelling against the Pakistani state, and attacking Buddhist images. But these Pashtun assaults are only the proximate cause of the Jenanabad Buddha's defacement. The deeper karmic causes lie, in time and space, far outside the beautiful Swat Valley.

Gary Leupp is Professor of History at Tufts University, and Adjunct Professor of Comparative Religion. He is the author of Servants, Shophands and Laborers in in the Cities of Tokugawa Japan; Male Colors: The Construction of Homosexuality in Tokugawa Japan; and Interracial Intimacy in Japan: Western Men and Japanese Women, 1543-1900. He is also a contributor to CounterPunch's merciless chronicle of the wars on Iraq, Afghanistan and Yugoslavia, Imperial Crusades.

He can be reached at: gleupp@granite.tufts.edu
Snuffysmith
Harnessing Doubt & Need: Rice Could Pull Off Something Big in Annapolis

Next Tuesday, a gaggle of nations will meet for one day in the Maryland City of Annapolis to discuss what it will take to generate a comprehensive solution to the Israel-Palestine standoff.

The Baltimore Sun caught my comment that in 1786 the Annapolis Convention was a mess. The various states of the Confederated States of America were trying to hammer out trade arrangements, and they were getting nowhere. Alexander Hamilton's own colleagues from New York abandoned him at the Convention leaving New York without a vote -- and yet amidst the low expectations and the overall bungling of the conference -- James Madison and Hamilton convinced delegates to exceed their authority and call for a federal convention the following year in Philadelphia. That meeting birthed the Constitution and the establishment of the United States.

I doubt that the Palestine-Israel summit, which shares so many characteristics of the 1786 Convention, can achieve a point of definitive and comprehensive success next week. However, Secretary Rice and President Bush seem ready to gamble what is left of their prestige on this venture.

Failure will hurt the US as well as the other parties involved as it will confirm in the minds of many around the world that America is no longer a superpower in the way it once was. If it fails in this, it will telegraph to many that we cannot achieve the objectives we set out for ourselves.

Doubt, cynicism, and low expectations about the 1786 Annapolis Convention are part of what helped generate the successful environment that it was for hatching the all important Philadelphia Federal Convention.

If Condoleezza Rice can harness doubt as well as the imperative of doing something to resolve this situation, this meeting next Tuesday could be historic.

-- Steve Clemons

09:49 AM | Permalink
Snuffysmith
Live on C-Span Tuesday Morning 10 am EST: The Annapolis Summit: What (Not) to Expect?

Inside sources tell me that the Annapolis Peace Summit to address Israel/Palestine issues will be officially announced tomorrow, and the date will be November 27.

The selection of Annapolis as the site for the upcoming Israel/Palestine Peace Summit makes some sense if one were serious about creating a new reality in the Middle East.

It was in Annapolis in September 1786 that Alexander Hamilton and James Madison teamed up and convinced the state delegates to exceed their designated authority and to approve a Federal Convention in Philadelphia the following year. Amidst dramatically low expectations and much bungling, the critical seeds were planted that led to the creation of a new federal Constitution and a democratic United States of America.

Logic has led me to the low expectations camp as we approach a Middle East summit this month in Annapolis -- but I'm willing to be duped if Secretary Rice can manage something that will lead to a reversal of the "we tried everything we could but the Palestinians were corrupt, self-dealing, and weren't ready" narrative.

My minimum threshold for success this round is that railroad track get set that can be sustained over the next 12 months and picked up immediately by the next administration. By the way, my already low expectations will be dashed if any military engagement with Iran occurs because we will then further "lose the Arab street" in any hot conflict -- and solving the Palestinian problem will not get us back to even with the Arab world, whereas without a conflict with Iran -- we may get back just a bit into the black.

As part of a bipartisan effort to encourage the administration in constructive directions, I have worked with Daniel Levy of the New America Foundation and Century Foundation; Robert Malley of the International Crisis Group, and Henry Siegman of the US/Middle East Project to generate and promulgate a letter signed by a diverse set of wise foreign policy players.

Tomorrow, Tuesday, we will be re-releasing a letter already signed and release last month by Brent Scowcroft, Zbigniew Brzezinski, Carla Hills, Nancy Kassebaum Baker, Paul Volcker, Ted Sorensen, Thomas Pickering, and Lee Hamilton.

We have a lot more signatories including:

Former US AID Deputy Administrator HARRIET "HATTIE" BABBITT, former USIA Chief JOSEPH DUFFEY, former US Senator GARY HART, former US Senator LINCOLN CHAFEE, RAND Corporation Board Member and New America Foundation/American Strategy Program Chair RITA HAUSER, former Assistant Secretary of State JAMES DOBBINS, former State Department Policy Planning Director MORTON HALPERIN. . . former Deputy Ambassador to the UN WILLIAM VAN DEN HEUVEL, former Israel Foreign Minister SCHLOMO BEN-AMI, former US Senator BIRCH BAYH, former Congressman and Corning CEO AMO HOUGHTON Jr., former National Intelligence Council Chairman ROBERT HUTCHINGS, former Assistant Secretary of Defense LAWRENCE KORB, former American Political Science Association President and Columbia University professor ROBERT JERVIS. . .

Kings College Terrorism Chair and New America Foundation Senior Fellow ANATOL LIEVEN, former National Security Agency Director Lt. General WILLIAM ODOM, Committee for the Republic President WILLIAM NITZE, Brookings Visiting Senior Fellow DIANA VILLIERS NEGROPONTE, Former CIA Deputy Director JOHN McLAUGHLIN, former US Ambassador JOHN MALOTT, former EU Commissioner for Foreign Relations CHRISTOPHER PATTEN, former National Intelligence Officer for the Near East PAUL PILLAR. . .

former US Senator LARRY PRESSLER, former US Ambassador FELIX ROHATYN, MIT Center for International Studies Director RICHARD SAMUELS, retired Marine Corps General JOHN J. "JACK" SHEEHAN, Princeton University Woodrow Wilson School Dean ANNE-MARIE SLAUGHTER, Former Congressman STEPHEN SOLARZ, former First USA Bank CEO and Adagio Partners CEO RICHARD VAGUE, Former US Senator and UN Foundation President TIMOTHY WIRTH, and former US Ambassador and AIG Vice Chairman FRANK WISNER. . .

Rice University James Baker Institute Director and Former US Ambassador to Syria EDWARD DJEREJIAN, former Middle East Road Map Director Ambassador JOHN S. WOLF, Nixon Center President and National Interest Publisher DIMITRI K. SIMES, Lehman Brothers Managing Director (and Teddy Roosevelt great-grandson) THEODORE ROOSEVELT IV -- among others.

I am attaching the latest version of the letter here now in pdf form. It may have a new name or two added tomorrow.

This is a pretty amazing list actually as far as lists go -- and the full roster is even more impressive.

In addition to the release of this letter, the New America Foundation and International Crisis Group are hosting an event that C-Span will air titled "The Annapolis Summit: What (Not) to Expect."

The event takes place at the New America Foundation Tuesday 10 am - 11:30 am and will feature:

Ghaith Al-Omari Lead Palestinian Drafter, Geneva Initiative; Former International Policy Director and Advisor to the President, Palestinian Authority; Senior Research Associate, American Strategy Program, New America Foundation

Robert Malley

Former Senior Advisor to President Clinton on Middle East Policy Affairs Director, Middle East and North Africa Program, International Crisis Group

Daniel Levy

Lead Israel Drafter, Geneva Initiative; Former Israel Government Negotiator and Senior Advisor to the Prime Minister in numerous peace talks; Senior Fellow & Director, Middle East Policy Initiative, New America Foundation; Senior Fellow, The Century Foundation; Publisher, Prospects for Peace

Steve Clemons

Senior Fellow & Director, American Strategy Program, New America Foundation and Publisher, The Washington Note

Should be a very interesting session that I think will be worth watching for any signs that Annapolis may have something in the water that will help the Summit beat the low expectations most have for the meeting.

-- Steve Clemons

11:21 AM | Permalink
Snuffysmith
Report and Retort: A Weak America is an Unsafe America by Jim Talent Ted Galen Carpenter thinks it’s time Washington started reducing the Pentagon’s budget and scaling down the military’s role in the world. Former U.S. Senator Jim Talent responds, arguing that a wide range of foreign policies, no matter their ideological roots, depend upon American strength.
Snuffysmith
Thoughts on the Annapolis Conference by Dennis Ross In an excerpt from the November/December issue of The National Interest, Ambassador Ross gives his take on the critical issues surrounding the upcoming Middle East Conference in Annapolis. What does Condoleezza Rice have to do to make the meeting a success?
Snuffysmith
Cassandra’s Conundrum by Joseph Cirincione

11.01.2007

In the previous issue of The National Interest, John Mueller argued that the threats from nuclear proliferation, nuclear terrorism and nuclear war are exaggerated. Joseph Cirincione responds.

FIRST, LET me agree with one of John Mueller’s main points: The dangers to our national security are very often hyped, and this alarmism produces undesirable consequences. And it is not just venal politicians and ideologues who participate in this threat exaggeration, but otherwise well-intentioned reporters and, yes, experts. This was pointed out to me not by a journalist, but by a man who pretends to be a journalist: Jon Stewart. Interviewing me on his Daily Show shortly after the hyped-up scare of Jose Padilla’s alleged “dirty bomb” plot in 2002, he asked about my role in the media coverage. “For a guy like you”, he said, “is this like when you see the weatherman and a hurricane is coming, and the weatherman never really gets to be at the top of the news, but in a hurricane, he is. And he’s got his big rain slicker on and saying, ‘It’s a devastating event!’”

He was right. That is exactly what it is like for dozens of experts put in front of the cameras and microphones and asked to play their role in the frenzy of “Crisis with Iran”, “Showdown with Iraq”, “America in the Crosshairs” or whatever title, music and drama can convince the viewer not to flip the channel. We try to give just the facts, but it is hard not to get caught up in the moment or to provide a sound bite that will be used absent any qualifiers. Couple this media tendency with an administration’s inherent dominance and ability to frame any national-security debate, and Mueller is right to be very worried about the use of fear to manipulate even the informed public.

In the prelude to the Iraq War, we saw a considerable amount of threat-mongering. Now, some of the same people who claimed we had to invade that nation or risk nuclear weapons in the hands of an Iraqi dictator are trying to convince us that we must continue to occupy that nation or risk nuclear weapons in the hands of Iranian dictators. As Mueller points out, some want to go further, attacking Iran directly. His arguments about the futility of a military answer to the Iranian program are on point, particularly the negative lessons of Osirak.



Just Because You’re Paranoid. . . .

MUELLER GOES too far, however. His major thesis—“the obsessive quest to control nuclear proliferation . . . has been substantially counterproductive and has often inflicted dire costs”—is not correct. I wish it were true that we had an “obsessive quest.” I wish we truly did make the number one threat to our national security our number one national-security priority. But we do not. Non-proliferation is a political and budgetary afterthought: an occasional speech, an occasional presidential finding and about $2 billion per year total on all our non-proliferation and counter-proliferation programs—about what we spend in Iraq every week.

Let me be clear: Nuclear proliferation is a real danger. George Bush and John Kerry were correct when they agreed in a 2004 debate that it is the number one threat to America. The threat comes in four flavors. Most serious is nuclear terrorism. As terrible as another 9/11 attack would be, a nuclear 9/11 would destroy an entire city, kill hundreds of thousands, wreck the economy and change the political life of the nation, perhaps permanently. Our number one priority must be to make sure any further terrorist attack is non-nuclear.

Second is the danger from existing arsenals. There are still 26,000 nuclear weapons in the world, enough to destroy the planet several times over. Even a small regional war in South Asia using one hundred weapons would trigger a nuclear winter that could devastate food crops around the world. Accidental or unauthorized use is a real risk. Consider the September flight of a B-52 with six nuclear weapons that the crew didn’t know they had. If the most sophisticated command-and-control mechanism in the world fails to stop the unauthorized possession of the equivalent of sixty Hiroshimas, what is going on in other nations?

Third is the risk of new nuclear nations. I agree with Mueller that the danger here is not that Iran or North Korea would use a nuclear bomb against America or their neighbors. Deterrence is alive and well; they know what would happen next. Nor is it that these states would intentionally give a weapon they worked so hard to make to a terrorist group they could not control. Rather it is the risk of what could happen in the neighborhood: a nuclear reaction chain where states feel they must match each other’s nuclear capability. Just such a reaction is underway already in the Middle East, as over a dozen Muslim nations suddenly declared interest in starting nuclear-power programs. This is not about energy; it is a nuclear hedge against Iran. It could lead to a Middle East with not one nuclear-weapons state, Israel, but four or five. That is a recipe for nuclear war.

Finally, there is the risk of the collapse of the entire non-proliferation regime. Kennedy was right to worry about ten, fifteen or twenty nuclear nations. He did not make this number up. It was based on a 1958 NPT that warned that while there were then only three nuclear nations (the United States, the USSR and the United Kingdom), “within the next decade a large number of individual countries could produce at least a few nominal-yield weapons.” Indeed, several nations already had programs underway. Subsequent NPTs confirmed the proliferation danger and the linkage to existing arsenals. Other nations’ decisions on proceeding with programs, the intelligence agencies concluded, were linked to “further progress in disarmament—aimed at effective controls and reduction of stockpiles.” Kennedy negotiated a limited nuclear test ban and began the process to get the Nuclear Non-Proliferation Treaty completed by Lyndon Johnson and ratified by Richard Nixon. This bipartisan dam held back the nuclear wave; its abandonment by the current administration risks a return to the 1950s nuclear free-for-all.



Cassandra Was Right

JUST BECAUSE some of the predicted nuclear catastrophes did not occur does not mean that those warning of them were wrong. Jon Stewart shared Mueller’s skepticism. “For all the scenarios that we have concocted, nothing has ever really happened”, he said. I told him what I tell Mueller: This is not because the dangers were not real; it is because leaders took action to prevent them. As a result, there are fewer countries with weapons or programs now than there were in the 1960s, ‘70s or ‘80s. More countries have given up nuclear weapons or programs in the past twenty years than have tried to acquire them. Negotiated treaties have cut in half the number of nuclear bombs from Cold War levels. And most of the 183 non-nuclear nations that have signed the NPT believe what the treaty says: No one should have nuclear weapons. Over 66 percent of the American public agrees, according to an Associated Press poll.

For any president who understands this widespread anti-nuclear desire, the programs to denuclearize are already in place. They could be reactivated or accelerated to effectively eradicate nuclear terrorism, shrink global arsenals, stop new nuclear nations and rebuild the nuclear levees. It just takes vision, honesty and the courage to put our money where our threats are. And it wouldn’t hurt to have less hype and more factual analysis.



Joseph Cirincione is the author of Bomb Scare: The History and Future of Nuclear Weapons (Columbia University Press, 2007) and the director of Nuclear Policy at the Center for American Progress.

Click here to read the other responses in the Apocalypse When? forum on nuclear proliferation.

Snuffysmith


Al-Qaeda Urges Iraq’s Insurgents to Consolidate Victory Over America


Nov. 20, 2007 - By Michael Scheuer (from Terrorism Focus, November 20) - Nearly a month since Osama bin Laden published his message to “our people in Iraq,” it is worth taking a look at what bin Laden really said versus what the media, Western leaders and some prematurely mirthful pundits claim he said (IntelCenter, October 23). In the most obvious sense, bin Laden’s October 23 statement is a post-Iraq war statement and a further development of Ayman al-Zawahiri’s 2005 message to Abu Musab al-Zarqawi (www.dni.gov, July 9, 2005). From al-Qaeda’s perspective the war is over and Islam has won; Washington’s announcement last week that it intends to begin the withdrawal of 3,000 troops, as well as Congress’s recess without renewing war funding, will bolster this perception. Bin Laden’s message is, however, a warning to all Iraqi mujahideen—Sunni and Shiite—that the hardest task is yet to come: namely, the creation of an Islamist state in Iraq. Bin Laden’s October 23 message builds on the July 2005 letter from al-Zawahiri to al-Zarqawi. At that time, al-Zawahiri told al-Zarqawi that the mujahideen had beaten the U.S.-led coalition and urged him to prepare for U.S. withdrawal, which might, he added, be “precipitous.” Bin Laden’s October message mirrors al-Zawahiri’s in concluding that the U.S. coalition has been beaten, and in stating that the only unknown is the precise moment of its withdrawal. There is nothing in bin Laden’s statement that criticizes the mujahideen for not fighting well—indeed, he refers to “magnificent victories” that make Americans “prisoners of their bases and the Green Zone”—much less anything that suggests they are losing. “The world has stood stunned, amazed, delighted and wonder struck” over the Iraqi mujahideen’s effectiveness and perseverance, the al-Qaeda chief said.
FULL STORY

Snuffysmith
*A Great Stage that Should Not be Missed
*by Rami G. Khouri
Released: 21 Nov 2007


NEW YORK -- There is something unconvincing, even insincere, about the
tentative steps and gestures being made by the parties trying to arrange
the meeting in Annapolis, Maryland next week to re-launch
Palestinian-Israeli peace talks. It is hard to generate any real
anticipation from a process in which the principal Israeli and
Palestinian parties are politically weak, the American hosts are
imprecise and hesitant, the desired supporting Arab state actors are
playing hard to get, and the agenda is as clear as mushroom soup.

Those are all reasons why the Arabs who are invited to go to Annapolis
should accept the invitation without reservations, go with enthusiasm
and confidence, and use the gathering as a stage to demonstrate the Arab
will for a fair and negotiated peace. If Annapolis is a confused and
murky process, the Arab world should respond to it with clarity and
confidence.

Nowhere in the Annapolis process is there any decisiveness or
conviction, any real sign of a burning desire the make concessions,
compromises, or genuine peace. The whole process smacks of American
self-serving expediency, rather than an honest mediator's sincerity.
Washington seems to be trying to compensate for the heavy price it has
paid in the world for three policies in recent years: ignoring the
Arab-Israel issue for the first 6 years of the Bush administrations,
attacking Iraq and setting off a series of negative consequences in the
region, and throwing its weight around by applying or threatening
sanctions against governments it does not like.

The United States now finds itself in the unenviable position of being
criticized all around the world, widely seen as a destructive power, and
yet not feared. It has lost much of its capacity both to deter and to
cajole other countries. The sudden 180-degree turn on getting involved
in Arab-Israeli peace-making is unconvincing precisely because it is so
sudden, severe and out of character -- almost maniacal in its intensity.

Nothing new can be seen in the preparations for the Annapolis meeting.
The principals are still dancing around the same old dynamics that have
already failed several times in recent years -- releasing some prisoners
in Israeli jails, pledging to freeze Israeli settlement expansion,
promoting Palestinian security forces and economic opportunity, and
other such stalwarts and regulars of the post-Oslo attempt to make peace.

Israel has thrown in the new demand that Palestinians formally
acknowledge Israel as "a Jewish state," which complicates matters even
further and makes agreement less likely. About 20 percent of Israeli
citizens are Palestinian Muslim and Christian Arabs, and their status in
"a Jewish state" would be unclear, as would the rights of Palestinian
refugees to a redress of grievance under existing UN resolutions that
say they have the right to return and/or to compensation.

Both sides are still trying to formulate statements on issues they have
grappled with before, but are likely to come up with wording so vague
that it is meaningless in practical terms. Annapolis is looking more and
more like a jamboree of words, symbols, statements and photo
opportunities that simultaneously camouflage but emphasize the
fundamental discord in Arab-Israeli relations.

The Israelis will not acknowledge Palestinian rights to a viable state
and a fair resolution of refugee rights, and the Palestinians in turn
will not recognize Israel as "a Jewish state."

Most of what is going on is not new, and we are all dancing because the
Americans suddenly decided to strike up the band. Therefore we in the
Arab world have nothing to lose, and much to gain, by turning Annapolis
around and making it an opportunity. The Palestinians and Arabs,
including Saudis and Syrians, should announce that they are delighted to
go to Annapolis if invited because they see it as a moral obligation and
constructive political endeavor to explore any possible means of moving
towards a negotiated resolution of the Arab-Israeli conflict.

We should go to Annapolis and use it as a powerful stage from which to
speak to the whole world, including the Israeli people who will be
watching closely. We should use it principally as a venue where we could
articulate clearly our desire to negotiate a permanent peace, based on
the 2002 Arab peace plan, and expose once again the vacuous and
insincere nature of the Israeli and American positions. Or, if the
Israelis-Americans are in fact sincere and committed to genuine
peace-making through negotiations based on UN resolutions, then they can
make that clear for their part, and we can move to our shared goal of a
fair, permanent, legitimate peace accord.

Annapolis is not a serious peace-making endeavor, but it is a
spectacular stage that the Arabs can use to challenge Israel, the United
States, and the world to make peace sincerely, rather than through the
stealth, evasion, and imprecision that defines the current mist-filled
road to the gathering.


/Rami G. Khouri is an internationally syndicated columnist, the director
of the Issam Fares Institute at the American University of Beirut,
editor-at-large of the Beirut-based/ Daily Star/, and co-laureate of the
2006 Pax Christi International Peace Award./

Copyright ©2007 Rami G. Khouri / Agence Global

Snuffysmith
http://www.nybooks.com/

Annapolis*: The Cost of Failure


By Henry Siegman <http://www.nybooks.com/authors/7175 >*

/Editor's note: In its November 8, 2007 issue, /The New York Review/
published "Failure Risks Devastating Consequences
<http://www.nybooks.com/articles/20750 >," a letter to President Bush by
Zbigniew Brzezinski, Lee H. Hamilton, Brent Scowcroft, Paul Volcker, and
other former Washington officials from both parties, calling for urgent
action toward a comprehensive Middle East peace settlement at the
Annapolis conference. In response, many readers sent questions to Henry
Siegman, the president of the US/Middle East Project, which was a
co-sponsor of the letter. In this nybooks.com <http://nybooks.com>
special feature, Mr. Siegman addresses some of those questions and
provides his own analysis of what is at stake at the conference./

------------------------------
------------------------------------------

One of the first on-line responses to the publication of the letter to
President George W. Bush and Secretary of State Condoleezza Rice was a
simple, straightforward question: "What is in it for Israel?" The "it"
referred to guidelines the letter proposed for an agreement that would
end Israel's occupation of the territories the IDF overran forty years
ago in a conflict—as Israelis were reminded by the celebrated author
David Grossman when he addressed a recent commemoration of Prime
Minister Yitzhak Rabin's assassination—that is now in its 100th year.

What is in it for Israel should be self-evident, but now that three new
Israeli generations have been born having no memory of Israel without
settlements, it no longer is; for too many, the occupation—and the
spiral of Israeli-Palestinian violence that has come with it—is a given,
the natural order of things.

An agreement that leads to the end of an occupation that with the best
of intentions humiliates and brutalizes an entire nation should be more
than enough of a reason to go for it. The subjugation and permanent
dispossession of millions of people is surely not the vocation of
Judaism, nor is it an acceptable condition for a Jewish national revival.

The argument against an Israeli agreement with President Mahmoud Abbas
and his Prime Minister Salam Fayyad is that they are too weak and
unpopular to implement an accord that would require them to put an end
to the violence of Palestinian rejectionist groups. Indeed, it is
pointed out that the fact that most of the violence in the West Bank
continues to come from the al-Aqsa Martyrs Brigades, a faction that
belongs to Abbas's Fatah, underlines the limits of Abbas and Fayyad's
authority and their capacity to establish the rule of law in the
territories.

That Abbas has been unable to control violence is true enough, but it is
nevertheless a disingenuous argument. Abbas's weakness is the result of
Israeli policies—primarily the relentless expansion of Israeli
settlements on Palestinian territory that continues even as Prime
Minister Ehud Olmert speaks about removing settlements—that have
convinced most Palestinians that Israel has no intention of returning to
the pre-1967 border and allowing the establishment of a viable
Palestinian state. An Israeli policy that seriously rewarded Abbas for
his moderation—such as a significant release of Palestinian prisoners,
instead of several hundred out of the over 10,000 prisoners being held
by Israel; the removal of physical obstructions and checkpoints that
have strangled Palestinian economic and social life; the dismantlement
of outposts and a freeze on further construction in the settlements, as
required by the Roadmap—would turn Abbas and Fayyad into strong leaders
overnight. But Olmert has until now only offered token "gestures," and
Palestinians have been given no reason to believe that a change in
Israeli policy will occur even when the Palestinians choose l