Iraq Death Toll Rivals Rwanda Genocide, Cambodian Killing Fields

Joshua Holland, AlterNet

War on Iraq: A new study estimates that 1.2 million Iraqis have met violent deaths since Bush and Cheney chose to invade.

Who Is Michael Mukasey and Should He Be Attorney General?
Steve Benen: Among other things, he's a conservative Republican, playing an active role in Giuliani's nutty presidential campaign.


Election '08: Watch Out, Here Comes Alan Keyes
Pam Spaulding: The infamous nutcase says he's running for president to "save" the GOP and strengthen their allegiance to God.


Greenspan Slams Bush's Fiscal Policy, Several Years Too Late
Ian Welsh: Alan Greenspan's new book says nasty things about Bush, but that doesn't mean he's redeemed himself.

A rate cut with a shoeshine and a smile

The US Federal Reserve will cut the Fed Funds rate by 25 basis points on Tuesday. Anything less will see Fed chairman Ben Bernanke beset by a ravening horde of his true employers - the financial services industry and the upper- and middle-class American investors who will see their portfolios plummet. So Bernanke will present his phony sales pitch with a shoeshine and a smile, rather than die as an honorable salesman. - Julian Delasantellis (Sep 17, '07)

Either way, it could be an unkind cut
Whether the Fed lowers the Fed Funds rate depends on whether it sees 6% unemployment on the horizon. Yet a cut in short-term rates may do more harm than good by not helping to sustain a liquidity boom, yet fueling accelerated inflation; not to mention leading to a loss of confidence on the part of the market in the Fed's ability to manage a monetary and financial crisis. - Henry C K Liu (Sep 17, '07)


Perils of the debt-propelled economy
- Henry C K Liu (Sep 14, '02)

Growing need for US-Iran confidence steps
As Iran and the United States dish out the rhetoric with equal venom, the US is reframing the Iraq debate less in terms of Iraq's nation-building and more in terms of anti-terrorism and anti-Iran priorities. This dangerously increases the chances of flash points between the countries going off, prompting calls for an "incident-at-sea agreement" as one step toward restoring some confidence to the relationship. - Kaveh L Afrasiabi (Sep 17, '07)

INTERVIEW
Withdrawal is the solution to the mess
Tariq Ali, historian and filmmaker
The main beneficiary of the US-led "war on terror" has been Iran, says Tariq Ali. The Iranians, who regarded the Taliban in Afghanistan and Saddam Hussein in Iraq as enemies, kept silent over the US invasions of these countries. They had their own agenda, but Tehran's state interests are now clashing with those of the US. (Sep 17, '07)

COMMENT
The cowboy learns some finesse
Those who regarded George W Bush's early policy as manifesting America's diplomatic culture - or lack of it: calling Bush and the entire nation "cowboys" happened quite frequently in the foreign press - ignored the fact that Americans are extremely skillful diplomats. America's dealing with China is a good illustration. - Dmitry Shlapentokh (Sep 17, '07)

SPENGLER
It's easy for the Jews
to talk about life
Life as such is not that likable, yet the standard Jewish toast states, "To life!" The Jews' love of life is a product of the Covenant, which they see as having kept this tiny people alive despite the onslaught of empires, and later the enmity of the Jewish state's Muslim neighbors. In effect the Jews' - and the State of Israel's - success is a driver for Christian evangelism in the global South. (Sep 17, '07)

Mohamed ElBaradei of IAEA: The man at the center of the West's confrontation with Iran

Military Drills - False Flag Provocation, Attack On Iran?

Israeli Syrian Overflight was 'rehearsal' for attack on Iran

French FM Kouchner Warns: War with Iran

Iran slams French nuclear war warning

Iran's Ahmadinejad defiant amid nuclear warnings: Iranian president says Iran has mastered nuclear technology and will never yield in face of international pressure to halt enrichment

Bush setting America up for war with Iran

Enriched uranium fuel is ready to be shipped from Russia to Iran's first nuclear power plant: Iran's Foreign Minister

Defense Secretary Gates Insists: US favors diplomacy with Iran

US Defence Secretary Robert Gates rejected today former Federal Reserve chairman Alan Greenspan's statement the Iraq war "is largely about oil"

Bush signals beginning of the end in Iraq: Telling sceptical Americans the US military role there will stretch beyond his presidency

U.S. troop surge in Iraq ultimately ineffective

Iraq troop withdrawal was inevitable

Gates warns against Webb Iraq plan to force withdrawal earlier

Instability is the bane of Iraq

Ramadan television series makes light of morbid reality in Iraq

Iraq war, low expectations bedevil Senator McCain

Iraq Sunni insurgent leader: Iran more dangerous than US

Third 9/11 Jihadist Video Calls For Attacks on West

By Jeffrey Imm


Media reports state that a third 9/11 Jihadist video, reportedly by Al Qaeda, has been released via Islamist web sites today, calling for Jihadist terror acts on the West to be a daily occurrence and calling for "acts of mass extermination".
AKI and AFP have thus far provided the primary reporting on this new Al Qaeda video.

AKI reports that the new 26 minute video is entitled "The attacks in New York and Washington - reasons and motives".
AFP reports that the video "features a montage of images of the burning World Trade Center towers and scenes from Islamist training camps."

AFP reports that a voiceover on the video states:
"We must take Islamist terrorism to Western countries so that it becomes a normal part of life like natural disasters" and "n that way, we will have acts of mass extermination in which people will feel that their affluence also brings death... and we will have created a balance of deterrence between us and them".

AKI reports that the new video begins with a message from Abu Yahya al-Libi, the leader of al-Qaeda in Afghanistan. On the new video, Al-Libi is reported to praise the role of Al Qaeda in defending the principles of Islam

AKI reports that the new video includes a montage of audio and video footage of previous messages Osama bin Laden and Ayman al-Zawahiri on the rationale behind the 9/11 attacks. AFP reports that the video also includes a clip by Mustafa Abu Al-Yazid, also known as Sheikh Said, the group's commander in Afghanistan.

AKI reports that:
"[a] voice on the video also gives an account of the war in Chechnya, blames the West for having committed a mass extermination and calls for revenge for this action. Also included is footage of interviews carried out by the Arab satellite TV network, Al Jazeera, with university professors, Arab commentators and editor of the London-based al-Quds al-Arabi newspaper. The entire video describes various events that occured before the 9/11 attacks, in particular the conflict in Chechnya, and tries to explain the reasons behind the terror attacks."

AKI reports that the video ends with a speech by Abdullah Azzam. Abdullah Azzam, who died in 1989, was an inspiration to Osama Bin Laden and countless other Jihadists.

AKI reports that the new video does not the logo of al-Sahab, Al Qaeda's communications arm, but carries the new logo of "al-Tanzim". AFP reports: "A third release had been trailed by Al-Qaeda's media arm, As-Sahab. In the event the new video was issued in the name of Al-Tanzem, prompting suggestions the network has launched a new media arm."


[i]This posting will be updated as new information is released.

Sources:

September 17, 2007 -- AKI: Terrorism: Al-Qaeda releases third 9/11 video

September 17, 2007 -- AFP: Qaeda urges Islamic terror in West in third 9/11 video

September 17, 2007 -- Agenzia Giornalistica Italia -- Terror: Third Al Qaeda's video, attacks must be normal

April 16, 2002 - Slate: Abdullah Azzam - The godfather of jihad


September 17, 2007 01:00 PM Link

A Look at the Hamas (Muslim Brotherhood) Government

By Douglas Farah


Today's Washington Post carries a fascinating look at the way Hamas, the West Bank branch of the Muslim Brotherhood, runs its government.

The two trends that have made Islamist governments both accepted and disliked are clearly on display. The first thing the Hamas government seems to have done is get rid of the perpetual insecurity, crime and endemic corruption. This is a pattern repeated from Afghanistan to Somalia, and one that is often at the top of the list of priorities of civilian populations.

These actions, as they did elsewhere, buy an enormous amount of goodwill among the general public, and is a facet that is usually sorely lacking in U.S.-led efforts to win hearts and minds.

The second trend is the imposition of Islamist behavior. The article notes that "Gaza's streets have taken on an increasingly Islamic cast in recent months. The improved everyday security has brought people back to the markets, beaches and parks, many of them women wearing for the first time the full black gown, gloves and face covering favored by the most conservative Muslims." My full blog is here.

September 17, 2007 11:40 AM Link

Clinton and Obama on the Same Page as MoveOn.orgby Jed BabbinMichael Dukakis was stuck with Willie Horton. Hillary and Obama should be stuck with the "Betray Us" ad.

It’s Time to Draw the Line by Sen. John CornynThe now-infamous Moveon.org ad -- "General Petraeus or General Betray Us" -- marks a potential watershed in U.S. political discourse

Will Iraq's Blackwater Ban Raise Troop Levels in Baghdad? [b]By Rob Kall After a firefight, allegedly involving blackwater, which produced 8 civilian deaths and 14 wounded, Iraq has "withdrawn Blackwater's license to operate in Iraq. Will the ban have teeth? and, if thousands of blackwater security and mercenary workers have to leave, or can't work, will General Petraeus have to INCREASE troop deployments to Baghdad?[/b]

Pakistan Heading Towards Total Anarchy [b]By Muhammad Khurshid Pakistan has been succumbing to the pressure being built by the Taliban and terrorists. In other words, Pakistan has been losing the war on terrorism. But now the present leaders ruling the country have no other option, but eliminate terrorism. They have to finish off the terrorists, otherwise they will vanish.[/b]

Mumia Abu-Jamal: The 9-11 Moment As the ashes began to cool from the embers of what was once the World Trade Center, allies and enemies alike expressed solidarity with the U.S., and shed tears of sympathy. What a difference six years makes. What was once solidarity has cooled to bitter toleration, and barely disguised anger. Remember the so-called "Coalition of the Willing?"

The MoveOn.org Mess

Tom Bevan

Some notes on the MoveOn.org mess:

How big of a political blunder was MoveOn's ad? Even Frank Rich of the New York Times thinks the group went too far and - more importantly - that Hillary and Barack were stupid not to smack them down:

Americans are looking for leadership, somewhere, anywhere. At least one of the Democratic presidential contenders might have shown the guts to soundly slap the "General Betray-Us" headline on the ad placed by MoveOn.org in The Times, if only to deflate a counterproductive distraction.

Yesterday on Meet the Press, Chuck Todd described MoveOn.org this way:

MoveOn is sort of like this old friend of the Democratic Party. It's as if it's, you know, your, your teen - your - a friend of yours from high school, and you don't mind hanging out with them back in high school, and then they keep showing up at your parties, and they get a little drunk and obnoxious, but you'll still - you're afraid to criticize them because they know too much about you or something.

Meanwhile, John McCain made a bit of news by calling for MoveOn.org to be "thrown out of the country" (his campaign later qualified the Senator's comment saying he "expressed his outrage in words that did not convey his intended meaning.") Here is the video:

Finally, I was on Bruce DuMont's nationally-syndicated radio show, Beyond the Beltway, last night along with Dan Johnson-Weinberger, a "progressive" lobbyist who also happens to be a member of MoveOn.org. Dan started the show by defending the ad as "cute" and saying that he had no knowledge of General Petraeus' personal integrity and thought the General had exhibited "hack-like behavior" by "collaborating" with the hacks in the Bush administration. (view the first hour of the program here)

Later Dan said he thought it was "healthy" and "good" that Democrats were challenging General Petraeus and his report, and that it would be a display of "bad judgment" for either Hillary Clinton or Barack Obama to denounce or distance themselves from the MoveOn ad.

I relate all of this because it shows what an overinflated sense of confidence MoveOn and its members have about the current state of affairs. They see public opinion polls showing an unpopular president and frustration with the war and naturally assume those numbers mean a majority of the country shares their utter contempt for Bush and their willingness to use any tactic necessary - including disparaging a distinguished member of the military - as a means to end the war.

It's been a textbook case of political tone deafness, a gift to Republican presidential candidates, and an issue that will almost certainly come back to be a thorn in the side of Democratic nominee in the general election next year.

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Kolbert, Elizabeth. "The Lady Vanishes.(A Woman in Charge)(Book review). ." The New Yorker. 83.16 (June 11, 2007): 130. General Reference Center Gold. Gale. Montgomery County Public Library (MD). 17 Sept. 2007
<http://find.galegroup.com/itx/infomark.do?...version=1.0>;.

Full Text:COPYRIGHT 2007 All rights reserved. Reproduced by permission of The Condé Nast Publications Inc.
In August, 1995, Carolyn Huber, an aide to Bill and Hillary Clinton, was doing a little tidying up around the White House when, in the so-called book room, she noticed a sheaf of computer printouts lying on a table. Without looking at them too closely, Huber picked up the papers and shoved them, along with a stray coat hanger, into a box, which she then pushed underneath a table in her office. The printouts--and the coat hanger--sat there, undisturbed, for five months, until Huber finally got around to cleaning her office and discovered what a mess she had got into.

The printouts were old billing records from the Rose Law Firm. They detailed work that Hillary Clinton had performed in the nineteen-eighties for Madison Guaranty, a failing Arkansas savings and loan, and they had been subpoenaed back in 1994 as part of the Whitewater investigation. The records had been searched for but, investigators were told, were nowhere to be found. Huber realized that she needed to report the discovery of the documents right away. When she delivered the papers to the Clintons' lawyers, her hands were shaking.

As Carl Bernstein tells us in his new biography of Hillary, "A Woman in Charge" (Knopf; $27.95), the appearance of the billing records presented a challenge even to the First Lady's staunchest allies. The White House book room was off-limits to almost everyone except Huber, the Clintons, house guests, and Mrs. Clinton's grooming staff, and it was hard to imagine the First Lady's makeup assistant taking much interest in them. (When investigators examined the records later, they found Mrs. Clinton's fingerprints, literally, on them.) Hillary offered no explanation for what had happened--"I do not know how the billing records came to be found where they were found," she told reporters--but was nonetheless angry that so few in her party rallied to her defense. She questioned her aides, one of whom tried to explain the awkwardness of the situation.

"You know, we don't have answers for people," the aide said to her, according to Bernstein. "We can't tell them where these things were. We can't tell them why it took two years to find them." Clinton still didn't see the problem. "Yeah, but people should know that if I wanted to destroy these things I would have destroyed them," she said. "And they never would have been found."

There are two kinds of books about Clinton. The first tries to prove that she's really much worse than you think she is, the second that she's really no worse than you think she is. Bernstein has apparently mellowed since his Watergate days, and his book belongs squarely in the latter camp. Even as he chronicles one fabulous misstep after another, he describes the former First Lady as "well-intentioned" and "principled," motivated by deep religious faith and a passionate sense of caring. He characterizes the "so-called Whitewater matter" as "overblown almost from the moment the New York Times first wrote about it," and relates Clinton's various self-justifying comments--"If I wanted to destroy these things, I would have"--with no apparent irony.

Jeff Gerth and Don Van Natta, Jr.,'s "Her Way: The Hopes and Ambitions of Hillary Rodham Clinton" (Little, Brown; $29.99) is the other kind of Clinton book. Van Natta is a Times reporter and Gerth a former Times reporter. Indeed, it was Gerth who broke the "so-called Whitewater matter," back in 1992, and then, more than any other journalist, kept the story alive. The tantalizing promise of "Her Way," which is appearing simultaneously with "A Woman in Charge," is that there is still a book's worth of dirt about Hillary out there. But, thanks in part to Gerth's earlier diligence, this is a promise that's tough to make good on. Take the hitherto untold story of Lee Telega, a Cornell University extension employee who worked in Clinton's Washington office for six months, guiding the new senator on agricultural policy. Gerth and Van Natta go to great lengths to prove that Clinton's office never filed the required paperwork for Telega. The result? Apparently, Senator Clinton is guilty of receiving unauthorized dairy-farming advice.

"A Woman in Charge" and "Her Way" join what is, by now, a veritable library of Clinton biographies, including Donnie Radcliffe's "Hillary Rodham Clinton: A First Lady for Our Time," Gail Sheehy's "Hillary's Choice," David Brock's "The Seduction of Hillary Rodham," and Edward Klein's "The Truth About Hillary." The pace of publication has quickened recently, so that the book lists this spring and summer include at least five new Clinton volumes--six if you count the paperback that accompanies "The Hillary Clinton Voodoo Kit: Stick It to Her, Before She Sticks It to You!"

Just about every biography--and this includes the two latest entries--begins with a description of Clinton's formative years: her middle-class childhood in Park Ridge, Illinois; her stint as a Goldwater Girl in high school; her arrival, in thick glasses and bell-bottoms, at Wellesley College. Most then rush through her years at Yale Law School, a romantic interlude whose unromantic climax is seventeen years in Arkansas. There follows a discussion of the 1992 campaign, Hillary's critical role in saving Bill from Gennifer Flowers, and the requisite reflection on the complex nature of their marriage. Sympathetic and unsympathetic biographers alike tend to tell Clinton's more recent history as a sequence of spectacular humiliations--first Gennifer, then health care, then Monica--followed by even more spectacular recoveries: an office in the West Wing, a seat in the United States Senate, a shot at the Presidency. Along the way, they offer some never before disclosed documents or factoids. As the end approaches, they try to come up with an account of what matters to Hillary and what doesn't--an explanation of who she truly is. Then, in the very last pages, they acknowledge that the effort probably hasn't quite succeeded and that the reader is still feeling at sea. As the historian Gil Troy observes in his 2006 biography, "Hillary Rodham Clinton: Polarizing First Lady," the "literature regarding Hillary Rodham Clinton is vast but unsatisfying." Or, as Gerth and Van Natta put it at the close of their book, "So, who is the real Hillary?" So many pages, so little progress.

The repeated failure to get at the "real" Hillary can itself be variously interpreted. It can be taken as a reason to abandon the project or, alternatively, to rethink the question. On the face of it, one would be hard pressed to maintain that the public doesn't yet know enough of the relevant facts. By now, even those who have been only half paying attention possess more information--much of it intimate--about Hillary Clinton than they do about their neighbors, their co-workers, and, quite possibly, their parents. If many Americans, including many of Clinton's biographers, still feel that they don't know the real Hillary, then surely that must say something about who Hillary really is.

Consider the apparently simple but, it turns out, unanswerable question of her name. When she married Bill, at the age of twenty-seven, Clinton pointedly decided to remain Hillary Rodham. According to Bernstein, she had resolved to do this "as a young girl, even before the practice was encouraged by a nascent women's movement." He quotes Clinton telling a friend that the choice was a matter of principle: it affirmed that she would continue to be "a person in my own right." Seven years later, when Bill was in a tough campaign to regain the Arkansas governorship, Hillary changed her mind. Except, she insisted, it wasn't a change at all.

"I don't have to change my name," she declared. "I've been Mrs. Bill Clinton. I kept the professional name Hillary Rodham in my law practice, but now I'm going to be taking a leave of absence from the law firm to campaign full-time for Bill and I'll be Mrs. Bill Clinton." Hillary remained Mrs. Bill Clinton all the way up to the eve of her husband's Inauguration as President, at which point she suddenly began introducing herself as Hillary Rodham Clinton. This change, too, she insisted, wasn't one. "Hillary Rodham Clinton has been the First Lady's name all along, since 1982," her press secretary, Lisa Caputo, told the Times, in what was described as a tone of exasperation. "We're at a loss as to why people think this is something that we're just trying to change now." A few weeks ago, the Albany Times-Union reported that Clinton has now dropped "Rodham" from her Presidential-campaign literature, though it still appears on communications from her Senate office. Even the one apparent constant in this history--Hillary--turns out to be dodgy. During a 1995 trip to Nepal, Clinton said to reporters that she had been told that she was named after Sir Edmund Hillary, the first climber to reach the top of Mt. Everest. This is why, she explained, her name has two "l"s. But, since Clinton was born in 1947 and Edmund Hillary, a New Zealander, was unknown outside his own country until his summit, in 1953, the account, as many noted, was implausible. (Questioned about the tale during the 2006 Senate campaign, a Clinton aide called it a "sweet family story her mother shared to inspire greatness in her daughter.")

In a political culture like ours, where character supposedly is all, this sort of fuzziness is obviously a problem. And yet even here it's possible to look for an advantage. Clinton's Presidential campaign is explicitly premised on the idea that no one really knows her. The day before the formal announcement of her candidacy, on January 20th, Clinton told NPR's Steve Inskeep, "I may be the most famous person you know very little about." Two days after the announcement, she told NBC's Brian Williams, "I'm probably the most famous person you don't really know." The day after that, she told the "Today" show's Meredith Vieira, "I may be the most famous person you really don't know." Speaking to potential supporters in Cedar Rapids, Iowa, the following weekend, she said, "I may be the most famous woman you don't really know."

In the fifteen years since Hillary became First Lady, she has made news for almost everything she's done. (Her hair styles alone have probably generated more headlines than most congressmen.) Two episodes, however, stand out, because they were so consequential and, in different ways, so disastrous. "A Woman in Charge" is especially good on what's generally referred to as the health-care debacle; "Her Way" offers genuinely new insights into Clinton's vote on Iraq.

Bernstein makes several things clear about the health-care debacle, one of which is that it didn't have to happen. As he reports the story, the first critical misstep was Bill's. Many of the new President's advisers, including Lloyd Bentsen, the Treasury Secretary, and Donna Shalala, the Secretary of Health and Human Services, opposed the choice of Hillary to lead what was formally known as the President's Task Force on National Health Care Reform. They doubted her qualifications and advised the President to keep his distance. Shalala tells Bernstein that she warned the President, "You can't run a major policy like this out of the White House. You've got to have some insulation from it, in case it falls on its face." But he wouldn't--or couldn't--listen. As an anonymous deputy explains to Bernstein, it was a matter of politics in the most domestic sense. Hillary had "stood by him in the Gennifer Flowers mess. And he had to pay her back. This is what she wanted."

The next mistakes were Hillary's, and Bernstein documents them in rich detail. Clinton and the task force's staff coordinator, Ira Magaziner, assembled five hundred members for the group, then decided to organize them--if that's the right word--into thirty-four committees. Not surprisingly, work quickly fell behind schedule. The committees were required to meet under near-military conditions of secrecy: members were forbidden to photocopy documents under discussion or even bring pens and pencils to some sessions. Their meetings were closed to the press and, indeed, to all outsiders, an arrangement that was soon challenged--successfully--in court.

Clinton's biggest blunder, as Bernstein tells it, was to offend the very legislators whose support she needed most. At a retreat for Democratic senators in the spring of 1993, Clinton was asked whether it was realistic to pursue such an ambitious health-care program, given her husband's many other legislative initiatives. She responded that the Administration was prepared to "demonize" those who opposed the task force's recommendations.

"That was it for me in terms of Hillary Clinton," Senator Bill Bradley, of New Jersey, told Bernstein. "You don't tell members of the Senate you are going to demonize them. It was obviously so basic to who she is. The arrogance. The assumption that people with questions are enemies. The disdain. The hypocrisy."

When the task force finally finished its proposal, months after it had promised to do so, the bill was one thousand three hundred and twenty-four pages long and so complex that, Bernstein writes, "even Hillary's closest allies on the Hill could not fathom its contents." In the meantime, Clinton all but assured a poor reception for the bill by allowing it to be leaked to the Washington Post before formally briefing lawmakers. Still, there was hope for some kind of health-care reform. As the task force's plan was dying, key senators and congressmen of both parties proposed simpler alternatives. Had Clinton thrown her support behind any one of these, millions of Americans who lack health insurance might now be covered. But she refused.

"I find her to be among the most self-righteous people I've ever known in my life," Bob Boorstin, the task force's deputy for media relations, told Bernstein. "And it's her great flaw, it's what killed health care."

The Senate voted on the Iraq war resolution on October 11, 2002. On October 10th, Clinton delivered a speech on the Senate floor explaining her position. She called her vote "very difficult"--"This is probably the hardest decision I have ever had to make," she said--but she would "cast it with conviction," she added.

"The facts that have brought us to this fateful vote are not in doubt," she said. "Intelligence reports show that Saddam Hussein has worked to rebuild his chemical and biological weapons stock, his missile-delivery capability, and his nuclear program. He has also given aid, comfort, and sanctuary to terrorists, including Al Qaeda members." All these so-called facts, of course, turned out to be very much in doubt.

A great deal has been written about the intelligence gathered before the war and about the extent to which it was manipulated. It now seems clear that the White House presented to the public information that it knew, or at least should have known, to be false. But senators had access to information that the public never saw. Ten days before the vote authorizing the war, the Bush Administration delivered to Congress a classified, ninety-page report entitled "National Intelligence Estimate: Iraq's Continuing Programs for Weapons of Mass Destruction." The document, most of which to this day has not been released, detailed what was known and, just as important, what was not known about Saddam's capabilities. On the basis of the report and other information, Senator Bob Graham, of Florida, then the chairman of the Senate Intelligence Committee, decided that evidence of W.M.D.s in Iraq was weak. He repeatedly urged his colleagues to read the full report and not to rely on the unclassified--and highly selective--summary that the Administration had made public. (Graham was one of the twenty-three senators who ultimately voted against the war.)

Did Clinton take the trouble to read the intelligence estimate before casting her vote? All the evidence that Gerth and Van Natta review indicates that she didn't. Clinton would have had to go to a secure room in the Capitol to get access to the document. Meanwhile, as Gerth and Van Natta point out, her aides could not have seen the intelligence estimate, because they lacked the necessary security clearances. Her spokesperson recently told the Washington Post that Clinton was briefed on the report "multiple times" by several members of the Administration.

No one, except perhaps Clinton, can know whether reading the intelligence estimate would have influenced her decision to authorize the war. Gerth and Van Natta argue, plausibly, that her vote was all but predetermined by her need to appear "tough" and by her husband's 1998 bombing campaign against suspected W.M.D. sites in Iraq. They also argue, plausibly, that her failure to consult the report undermines recent statements she has made. At a candidates' forum in February, Clinton declared, "My vote was a sincere vote based on the facts and assurances that I had at that time." Also in February, she said, "If I had known then what we know now, there would never have been a vote and I never would have voted to give the President the authority." At a campaign stop in New Hampshire the same month, she pointedly refused to label her vote a mistake, saying, "The mistakes were made by this President, who misled this country and this Congress." But can you really be misled by a report you've never read?

Neither Bernstein nor Gerth and Van Natta talked to Clinton directly for their books. (Bernstein reports that when he started work on his book, in 1999, both Hillary and Bill indicated that they would be happy to speak to him; later, they changed their minds, on the ground that they didn't want to favor one book over all the others.) As a result, "A Woman in Charge" and "Her Way" are forced to fall back on Clinton's largely ghostwritten, highly sanitized account of her life, "Living History," published in 2003. Then again, Hillary being Hillary, it's not clear how much the authors would have gained by spending time with her.

I covered Mrs. Clinton sporadically from the day she began her first campaign for the Senate, on Daniel Patrick Moynihan's farm, through her early years in office. In that period, I saw her in dozens of settings--working the state fairgrounds in Syracuse, nodding attentively during her "listening tour," chatting with aides in Washington, signing books in Westchester County, taking a call from her husband on her cell phone. I also interviewed her a few times. When the subject was policy, she was always smart and engaged; when the topic was personal, it was like talking to someone through several layers of Plexiglas. Of course, I was trying to get at the "real" Hillary. (In the interest of full disclosure, I never even came close.)

History is full of politicians who have sacrificed other people to their ambitions. A willingness to do so might even be called a precondition of power. Clinton is unusual in that she seems, above all, to have sacrificed herself. Whether you follow her around for months or just read a book about her, you can't help admiring her extraordinary discipline. When her husband was accused of creating a "slush fund" to manage his extramarital affairs, she organized a legal team to protect him--that's the kind of person she is. (Bernstein reports that, in 1990, the team interviewed five women, in one case with Hillary in the room, to obtain statements from them that they had never had sex with Bill.) In January, 2000, I accompanied Clinton on a campaign swing through western New York. The first morning began with what was expected to be a friendly radio interview. Instead, the host asked Clinton whether she had ever slept with Vince Foster. No matter what else she did or said that day, it was clear that this story was going to dominate the news cycle. Her press secretary looked as if he wanted to vomit. But Clinton managed to smile and shake hands through the next ten hours of campaign events, as if the whole incident had never happened.

As soon as Clinton indicated that she was going to run for President, it was inevitable that books like Bernstein's and Gerth and Van Natta's would appear. It was also inevitable that, whether or not anything truly new was revealed, other journalists would use these volumes as an excuse to trot out their own favorite Clinton stories--the billing records, the name changes, the absurd extravaganza on the Moynihan farm, and, oh, have I mentioned "I've always been a Yankees fan"? The Clinton camp's official response to the books has been dismissive. "Is it possible to quote someone yawning?" the Senator's press secretary, Philippe Reines, said to the Washington Post. Perhaps Clinton is, at this point, hardened enough to be bored by the efforts of Bernstein et al. Or perhaps she is pained by them. It would be interesting to know what she really feels, and it is possible to argue that such information is relevant to the electorate. How a chief executive regards his (or her) mistakes is, after all, a matter of importance. (See President George W. Bush.) But, as "A Woman in Charge" and "Her Way" make clear, this is precisely the sort of question about Hillary that cannot be answered.

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It Was Right To Dissolve the Iraqi Army: We broke America's terrible habit of ruling by proxy through military regimes. By: Christopher Hitchens http://www.slate.com/id/2174047/

Congress Hears Some, But Not All, of Jones Commission Report

Skeptics might call it a typical congressional hearing: it involved commissioners of a prestigious report who appear not to have read and fully understood it contents and members of Congress who invent evidence and pile onto it. It also showed an understanding of Iraqi sovereignty that some might find a little curious. Straus Military Reform Project Research Associate Valerie Reed describes the hearing in her latest report.



The House Armed Services Committee convened last Thursday afternoon to hear testimony on the Report of the Independent Commission on the Security Forces of Iraq. The Independent Commission (also called the Jones Commission) was established by Congress to assess the progress and capabilities of Iraq’s security forces; it was given a 120-day mandate, but the commission was able to complete its report in 90 days. The commission was made up of 20 retired senior military officials, chiefs of police, and a former deputy secretary of defense. Four members of the commission served as witnesses at the hearing: Chairman Gen. James Jones, USMC (ret.); Hon. John Hamre (former deputy secretary of defense); Gen. George Joulwan, USA (ret.); and former D.C. Police Chief Charles H. Ramsey.

Last week, many media outlets reported that the Jones Commission found the Iraqi Army was making significant progress toward handling internal security independently, but that sectarianism had bred corruption in the Shiite-dominated Ministry of the Interior. Because the National Police Force is under the Ministry of the Interior, this force has become weak and ineffective as an arm of law enforcement, and is often involved in sectarian violence. According to media reports, this led the commission to recommend disbanding and remaking the National Police Force.

The Department of Defense (DOD) rejected this recommendation, arguing that the National Police Force is improving and that disbanding it would create a dangerous security vacuum. Jones’s opening testimony confirmed the report’s recommendation to disband. However, when questioned by Rep. Joe Wilson, R-S.C. (who suggested that the media skewed the story), if the commission recommended disbanding the police, former D.C. Police Chief Charles Ramsey was adamant that disbandment was not recommended. Rather, he asserted that “redefining the mission” was proposed. Ramsey’s assertion could be interpreted as his effort to minimize the divergence between the DOD and the Jones Commission report, the facts notwithstanding.

It is very unclear why any discrepancy between the report’s contents and Ramsey’s testimony could exist as the report’s text is very clear; an excerpt from it reads:

The National Police have proven operationally ineffective. Sectarianism in its units undermines its ability to provide security; the force is not viable in its current form. The National Police should be disbanded and reorganized.

One possible explanation was offered by Rep. Carol Shea-Porter, D-N.H., who suggested that the George W. Bush administration had an influence on the commissioners. Shea-Porter cited a Los Angeles Times article as corroboration for her contention. However, when contacted, the Times’ Pentagon correspondent Julian Barnes stated that his article was “mis-referenced.” Moreover, Shea-Porter’s office did not respond to a request for a citation of any other article. Therefore, this line of argument cannot be confirmed.

Another possible but completely unconfirmed and theoretical explanation is that Ramsey’s comments were directed toward the development of the Iraqi Police Force, as opposed to the Iraqi National Police Force. In this case, there would be no discrepancy, as the commission did not recommend disbanding this organization. Concerning the Iraqi Police Service, the report states:

To be effective in combating the threats they face, including sectarian violence, the Iraqi Police Service must be better trained and equipped. The Commission believes that the Iraqi Police Service can improve rapidly should the Ministry of Interior become a more functional institution.

Republicans at the hearing seized on the incongruity, declaring it evidence that, according to Rep. John McHugh, R.-N.Y., some “imposters” in the media had undermined and skewed the report’s recommendations. They contended the media was to blame for giving an impression the report was more critical of Iraqi progress than it actually was.

However, the reality is that the media reports are substantiated by the actual contents of the Jones report and charges of the media’s skewing the story with a presumed agenda appear to be based on a failure on the part of the accusers to actually read the report or listen to Jones’ testimony.

To understand other issues addressed at the hearing, it is important to comprehend the overall mandate of the Jones Commission, which was to grade Iraqi security forces on their readiness to provide four things:

1. an ability to resume responsibility for maintaining the territorial integrity of Iraq;
2. the ability to deny international terrorists safe haven;
3. the ability to bring greater security to Iraq’s 18 provinces in the next 12-18 months; and
4. the ability to bring an end to sectarian violence and to achieve national reconciliation

The commission reported that though Iraqis are improving internal security missions (such as denying terrorists safe haven), they are not able to provide security against external threats. They can make progress on bringing greater security, but likely not for at least two more years. Also, the commission stressed that an end to sectarian violence can only be achieved if the Iraqi Central Government initiates actions to end to sectarianism. Overall, Iraq was assessed to have made “measurable, though uneven progress.”

Though the commission’s mandate was fairly limited in scope, and generally the witnesses declined to speculate about future policy, they did make some specific recommendations and prognostications. The commission reported there could potentially be a “strategic shift” in 2008. This shift could mean a reassessment of strategy and a larger level of troop reductions. Also, they proposed:

1. creating an Iraqi transition headquarters to track a broad spectrum of progress and goals;
2. transferring all 18 provinces to Iraqi provincial control (only seven provinces currently have political control); and
3. engaging a status-of-forces agreement with the Iraqis.

A status-of-forces agreement would define the legal status of U.S. personnel and property in Iraq, and would set forth rights and responsibilities for the United States and Iraq on issues such as civil and criminal jurisdiction, the wearing of uniforms, carrying of arms, and resolving damage claims. It would also allow U.S. military bases to fly both American and Iraqi flags, which would be of symbolic significance to the Iraqis.

Many members’ queries addressed the issues of troop reductions and withdrawal. Similar to the Government Accountability Office’s (GAO) Comptroller-General David Walker’s testimony, however, the commissioners steered clear of specifics, Hamre arguing, “Our charter was narrowly defined – we should stay at that.” There seemed to be some frustration from the members that both the GAO and the Jones Commission only regurgitated facts from their respective reports and did not offer strategic policy advice. However, though the commissioners would not give a time frame or reduction estimate, they agreed that the magnitude of U.S. troop commitment was essential for the present. Gen. Joulwan adamantly declared, “This is not May of ’75.” In other words, this is not the time to be formulating an immediate exit strategy, as occurred in Vietnam in 1975.

Joulwan also stressed the consequences on the international community if a stable Iraq is not achieved, and added, “We haven’t found anyone who wants us to leave soon.” Curiously, this is in direct contrast to a recent poll by ABC News and the BBC which reports that 65 percent of Iraqis say the surge is not working and 72 percent of Iraqis say that U.S. presence is making Iraq’s security worse.

Another theme of the Jones report, which echoed the GAO’s, was the necessity of political reconciliation. The commissioners asserted that this was an objective that must be achieved before any security goals can be met. Following this argument, Rep. Rick Larsen, D-Wash., speculated that “we’re asking the wrong question.” In other words, is the United States focusing on military strategies instead of facilitating essential political reform?

To the question of how to achieve that political progress, Rep. Walter B. Jones, R-N.C., inquired if the Iraqis understand “this cannot go on forever.” His concern was that U.S. protection was being used as a crutch to help Iraqis avoid making the necessary effort to solve their political and military problems. In response, Joulwan argued that more integration is evident, intelligence and security procedures are improving, and that the Iraqis understand the magnitude of American sacrifice.

Rep. Gene Taylor, D-Miss., also indicated a concern for the Iraqi government’s ability to function and make responsible decisions. His question addressed the commission’s recommendation that each province be given full political control. If this were to occur, would U.S. troops be safe and would they be able to conduct necessary operations? Jones testified that “trust is growing and improving,” and that if full provincial authority is granted to the Iraqis, U.S. troops would still not need Iraqi permission for their military operations. Jones pointed out that Afghanistan maintains political control and U.S. troops are able to operate there under only U.S. control. However, it does not seem that full political control would really exist if Iraqis are not recognized to possess the right to approve or disapprove U.S. military operations on Iraqi “sovereign” territory. This apparent contradiction was not further considered at the hearing.

Overall, the Jones Commission report was received favorably by both parties. Shea-Porter made an exception, declaring that humanitarian problems cited in the Jones report are “a great tragedy.” Some Republicans hinted that the Jones report was better crafted than the GAO report – Rep. Joe Wilson, R.-S.C., called it “refreshing,” because it lacked “accusations and recriminations.” In contrast, the GAO report was perceived by Democrats as confirmation of the Bush administration’s blunders. Members of both parties appeared to give the Jones report particular attention and regard, whereas the GAO report commanded regard only from the Democrats. Both the GAO and Jones Commission witnesses stressed the necessity of Congress attaining additional information to make its policy decisions, and suggested the Gen. David Petraeus-Amb. Ryan Crocker hearing as a valuable resource.


Relevant Links:

1. The Report of the Independent Commission on the Iraq Security Forces:
http://media.npr.org/documents/2007/sep/jonesreport.pdf

2. Chairman Ike Skelton’s Opening Statement:
http://armedservices.house.gov/apps/list/speech/armedsvc_dem/skeltonos090607b.shtml

3. New York Times, “A New Report on Iraq Lends Ammunition to Both Parties.” http://www.nytimes.com/2007/09/07/washington/07cong.html

4. Washington Post, “U.S. Military Rejects Calls to Disband Iraqi Police.”
http://www.washingtonpost.com/wp-dyn/content/article/2007/09/06/AR2007090601678.html?sub=new

5. Los Angeles Times, “Mixed Marks for Iraqi Security Forces.”
http://www.latimes.com/news/nationworld/iraq/complete/la-na-usiraq31aug31,1,7418571.story?ctrack=1&cset=true







Winslow T. Wheeler

Director

Straus Military Reform Project

Center for Defense Information

202 797-5271 in DC

301 840-8992 in MD

winslowwheeler@msn.com

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In his new book, the former Fed chairman admits Iraq was "largely about oil."

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Foreign Policy News and Commentary Update September 17, 2007
SINKING IN THE POLLS - KAREN P. HUGHES (WASHINGTON POST, SEPTEMBER 17): While it is good that many Muslims are recognizing that terrorist groups such as al-Qaeda are a common threat, many polls show that much remains to be done to improve foreign perceptions of the United States. http://www.washingtonpost.com/wp-dyn/conte...1600909_pf.html

WILL THE DEMOCRATS BETRAY US? - FRANK RICH (NEW YORK TIMES, SEPTEMBER 16): Karen Hughes, the Bush crony in charge of America's P.R. in the jihadists' world, recently held a press conference anointing Cal Ripken Jr. our international "special sports envoy." We are once more sleepwalking through history, fiddling while the Qaeda not in Iraq prepares to burn.
http://select.nytimes.com/2007/09/16/opini...agewanted=print

WHEN IS IT LIKE THE COLD WAR AND WHEN IS IT NOT - (MOUNTAINRUNNER, SEPTEMBER 14): "The failure of Rice and Hughes to know when the current struggle is and is not like the all hands struggle of the pre-detente Cold War created a failed media outreach strategy, a lame national strategy on public diplomacy, and not surprisingly fostered conferences sponsored by groups in the Defense community filling the void left by State's lack of leadership.'
http://mountainrunner.us/2007/09/when_is_i...cold_war_a.html

MUSIC SCHOLAR BARRED FROM U.S., BUT NO ONE WILL TELL HER WHY - NINA BERNSTEIN (NEW YORK TIMES, SEPTEMBER 17): Nalini Ghuman, an up-and-coming musicologist and expert on the British composer Edward Elgar, was stopped at the San Francisco airport in August last year and, without explanation, told that she was no longer allowed to enter the United States. Academic and civil liberties groups point to other foreign scholars who have been denied entry without explanation at an airport, or refused a visa when they applied. A pending lawsuit by the American Civil Liberties Union contends that the Bush administration is using heightened security measures to keep foreign scholars out on ideological grounds in violation of the First Amendment rights of American scholars to hear them.
http://www.nytimes.com/2007/09/17/nyregion...agewanted=print

THE NEXT WAR: IT'S ALWAYS LOOMING. BUT HAS OUR MILITARY LEARNED THE RIGHT LESSONS FROM THIS ONE TO FIGHT IT AND WIN? - WESLEY K. CLARK (WASHINGTON POST, SEPTEMBER 16): Now, in an age when losing hearts and minds can mean losing a war, we find ourselves struggling in Iraq and Afghanistan to impart the sort of cultural sensitivities that were second nature to an earlier generation of troops. For years, Congress has whacked away at military-education budgets, thereby driving gifted officers from the top-flight graduate schools where they could have honed their analytical skills and cultural awareness.
http://www.washingtonpost.com/wp-dyn/conte...1401973_pf.html

WHAT THEY'RE SAYING IN ANBAR PROVINCE - GARY LANGER (NEW YORK TIMES, SEPTEMBER 16): Al Qaeda, it should be said, is overwhelmingly 'almost unanimously' unpopular in Anbar, as it is in the rest of Iraq. But our enemies? enemies are not necessarily our friends. The United States, it turns out, is equally unpopular there.
http://www.nytimes.com/2007/09/16/opinion/...agewanted=print

SECTARIAN TOLL INCLUDES SCARS TO IRAQ PSYCHE - SABRINA TAVERNISE (NEW YORK TIMES, SEPTEMBER 17): Iraqis have continued to flee their homes throughout the American troop increase, which began early this year, and despite assurances that it is becoming safe to return, uncrossable lines have been left in Iraqi minds and neighborhoods.
http://www.nytimes.com/2007/09/17/world/mi...agewanted=print

IRAQIS SHOW COURAGE - JEFF EMANUEL (WASHINGTON TIMES, SEPTEMBER 17): The "surge" in Iraq, and the counterinsurgency strategy that the increase in forces was designed to support, have made far more gains in far less time than most who are actually familiar with the situation here ever expected. A large part of the reason for this is the people of Iraq, who have in many different ways displayed a level of bravery that we can only hope Americans, if put into the same situation, would ever dream of showing.
http://www.washingtontimes.com/apps/pbcs.d...mplate=printart

CROCKER BLASTS REFUGEE PROCESS: IRAQIS COULD WAIT 2 YEARS FOR ENTRY, AMBASSADOR SAYS - SPENCER S. HSU AND ROBIN WRIGHT (WASHINGTON POST, SEPTEMBER 17)
http://www.washingtonpost.com/wp-dyn/conte...1601698_pf.html

MODERN DAY POLITICAL ADVERTISING - JIM FEDAKO (LEWROCKWELL.COM, SEPTEMBER 15): Thursday in his Iraq speech, Bush played the role of Goebbels, doing his very best to keep a tiring nation in war. It was as choreographed as any scene from Triumph of the Will or speech given in the closing days of WWII; the repetition of the big lies, references to dangers home and abroad, the need for continued military interventions, and the absolute requirement that the true patriots remain steadfast.
http://www.lewrockwell.com/orig7/fedako4.html

DIVIDENDS OF MENDACITY: BUSH'S 'WAY FORWARD' - PIERRE TRISTAM (CANDIDE'S NOTEBOOKS, SEPTEMBER 14/COMMON DREAMS)
http://www.commondreams.org/archive/2007/09/14/3850/

ANNOTATE THIS... PRESIDENT BUSH'S SEPT 13 SPEECH TO THE NATION ON IRAQ - STEPHEN ZUNES AND ERIK LEAVER (FOREIGN POLICY IN FOCUS, SEPTEMBER 14)
http://www.fpif.org/fpiftxt/4545

BUSH'S WAR OF FALSE PRETENSES - DERRICK Z. JACKSON (BOSTON GLOBE, SEPTEMBER 15): We are 4 1/2 years into this war, and the Bush administration has not sorted out what we have done.
http://www.boston.com/news/globe/editorial...etenses?mode=PF

IT CAME FROM PLANET BUSH - DAN FROOMKIN (WASHINGTONPOST.COM, SEPTEMBER 14): The president can make things true simply by solemnly pronouncing them from the Oval Office. He can reach out to his critics just by saying he is doing so. And people believe him. But over here in the real world, things are different. Iraq is mostly ruled by armed gangs, not a central government. American troops are dying in the crossfire as the country continues to violently disintegrate along ethnic and sectarian lines. We're in it pretty much alone. There's no end in sight. And the real al Qaeda is regrouping in Pakistan.
http://www.washingtonpost.com/wp-dyn/conte...1401322_pf.html

A THOUSAND AMERICAN SOLDIERS CONDEMNED BY BUSH TO CERTAIN DEATH - RAY HANANIA (SOUTHWEST SIDE HERALD, SEPTEMBER 14/COMMON DREAMS): Bush has no strategy to win the Iraq War, but he outlined a clear plan to insure that it continues into the presidency of his successor and that when he leaves office, America will not be able to leave Iraq.
http://www.commondreams.org/archive/2007/09/14/3853/

BUSH PASSES THE BUCK EDITORIAL (BOSTON GLOBE, SEPTEMBER 15): Bush's talk about reducing troop levels only gradually, in sync with military success on the ground, has little relevance to the Sunni-Shi'ite struggle for dominance in Iraq or to Iran's deepening influence with Shi'ite parties and militias.
http://www.boston.com/news/globe/editorial...he_buck?mode=PF

SOMEBODY ELSE'S MESS - THOMAS L. FRIEDMAN (NEW YORK TIMES, SEPTEMBER 16): In his speech to the nation the president basically said that on the most important, indeed only, legacy issue left in his presidency, Iraq, there would be no change in policy ? that a substantial number of U.S. troops would remain in Iraq ?beyond my presidency.? Therefore, it will be up to his successor to end the war he started.
http://select.nytimes.com/2007/09/16/opini...agewanted=print

BRIT HUME AND THE BUSH ADMINISTRATION TAKE PROPAGANDA TO A NEW LEVEL - GLENN GREENWALD (SALON, SEPTEMBER 11): FOX News? Brit Humes? "interview" with General Petraeus took government propaganda to a whole new level, and really has to be seen to be believed (the full video is here).
http://www.salon.com/opinion/greenwald/200...view/index.html

THE ILLUSION OF PROGRESS IN IRAQ - JOE CONASON (TRUTHDIG, SEPTEMBER 14): Despite the big charts and the blustering fanfare highlighted by Fox News, neither Gen. David H. Petraeus nor Ambassador Ryan Crocker could convincingly claim that the American military escalation in Iraq is achieving its original goals.
http://www.truthdig.com/report/item/200709...iraqi_progress/

STATECRAFT: BUSH STILL DOESN'T GET IT - DENNIS ROSS (NEW REPUBLIC, SEPTEMBER 14): If the administration still lacks a political strategy and mechanism to connect the local areas with the center, then General Petraeus's report in March will either have to admit failure or come up with yet another set of new measures on which to evaluate the surge and to argue for more time.
http://www.tnr.com/docprint.mhtml?i=w070910&s=ross091407

PETRAEUS WAR PLAN IS DOUBTED: DATA SHOW IRAQI UNITS UNPREPARED - BRYAN BENDER AND FARAH STOCKMAN (BOSTON GLOBE, SEPTEMBER 16)
http://www.boston.com/news/nation/washingt...doubted?mode=PF

TOMORROW'S IRAQ EDITORIAL (CHICAGOTRIBUNE.COM, SEPTEMBER 16): Petraeus and Crocker spoke last week of finishing, not short-cutting, their mission. Petraeus' troops and Crocker's diplomats need to reach their short-term goals before the U.S. can contemplate any enduring security and political relationship with Iraq.
www.chicagotribune.com/news/opinion/chi-0916edit1sep16,0,2350070.story

OPERATION 'RETURN ON SUCCESS' ? EDITORS (NATIONAL REVIEW, SEPTEMBER 14): Bush finally has in place a strategy with a good chance of success and the right commander to carry it out.
http://article.nationalreview.com/?q=MmRiM...YjI5ZjlmYTZhMTU=

PETRAEUS MAKES THE CASE - DONALD LAMBRO (WASHINGTON TIMES, SEPTEMBER 17): There is no doubt Gen. David Petraeus won the politically charged slugfest on Capitol Hill last week when he called for withdrawal of 30,000 troops from Iraq between now and early next year. He won it on his case that, as bad as things are in Iraq, the troop surge of the last six months has made verifiable progress in key battlegrounds now cleansed of terrorists.
http://www.washingtontimes.com/apps/pbcs.d...mplate=printart

DECENCY GOES A.W.O.L. - SUZANNE FIELDS (WASHINGTON TIMES, SEPTEMBER 17): Pundits have compared the poisonous slander against Gen. Petraeus to Sen. Joseph McCarthy's smear of Gen. George C. Marshall in 1951. Where is that crusty old Boston lawyer Joseph Welch who famously demanded of Joe McCarthy: "Sir, have you no sense of decency?" Decency is an old-fashioned virtue fusing manners and morals, and it often seems to have gone AWOL in the modern world.
http://www.washingtontimes.com/apps/pbcs.d...mplate=printart

IRAQ ALTERNATIVE - ELTON GALLEGLY (WASHINGTON TIMES, SEPTEMBER 16): It is now time to seriously consider a plan that would lead to a decentralized Iraqi state of three semi-autonomous entities. (Elton Gallegly, California Republican, is a member of the U.S. House of Representatives.)
http://www.washingtontimes.com/apps/pbcs.d...mplate=printart

BEHIND THE ANBAR MYTH - PEPE ESCOBAR (ASIA TIMES, SEPTEMBER 14): The magic word "oil" mysteriously vanished from the whole drama performed this week in front of Congress. To get it, the answer is once again divide and rule -- let's have those Sunnis and Shi'ites tear each other to bits while we "stay the course" pretending to protect them from themselves while trying to protect "our" oil.
http://www.atimes.com/atimes/Middle_East/II14Ak04.html

IRAQ, DEEP IN YOUR BONES: A WAR THAT ISN'T REALLY A WAR, THE GREAT HUMILIATION THAT'S OURS FOREVER. IS THERE ANY UPSIDE? - MARK MORFORD (SF GATE, SEPTEMBER 14): Iraq is, was, and forever will be our very own massive strategic blunder, a failed land grab for position and power in a tinderbox region defined by furious instability and corruption and death.
http://www.sfgate.com/cgi-bin/article.cgi?...;type=printable

FROM HOPE TO FEAR IN IRAQ - JIM HOAGLAND (WASHINGTON POST, SEPTEMBER 16): As the dream that Iraq could serve as a model for democracy in the Arab world has died a bitter death, Iran has become the source of the president's darkest and most important nightmare. An inordinate fear of Iran has in fact paralyzed U.S. policy in Iraq since the overthrow of Saddam Hussein.
http://www.washingtonpost.com/wp-dyn/conte...1402049_pf.html

MEN AT WORK, CHILDREN AT PLAY: THE TELLING DIFFERENCE BETWEEN GENERAL PETRAEUS AND AMBASSADOR CROCKER, AND THEIR CONGRESSIONAL INQUISITORS - REDERICK W. KAGAN & WILLIAM KRISTOL (WEEKLY STANDARD, SEPTEMBER 24): 'Given the emphasis General Petraeus and Ambassador Crocker put on the damage done by outside actors, especially Iran, in fanning the violence in Iraq, we expect that the Bush administration will now turn its attention more directly to this critical problem.'
http://www.weeklystandard.com/Content/Publ...9umofv.asp?pg=1

COOLING THE CLASH WITH IRAN - DAVID IGNATIUS (NEW YORK TIMES, SEPTEMBER 16): The United States and Iran are playing a game of "chicken" in the Middle East. A collision would be ruinous for both. Each side needs to be careful to avoid miscalculation and to act in ways that avert a crackup.
http://www.washingtonpost.com/wp-dyn/conte...1402051_pf.html

THE OTHER MIDEAST CONFLICT EDITORIAL (BOSTON GLOBE, SEPTEMBER 16): Inevitably, debate about an endgame for the Iraq war has been dominating political discourse in the United States. But another fateful matter is looming: the November summit in Washington, at which Israelis, Palestinians, and leaders from Arab states will be encouraged to draw up principles to end the Israeli-Palestinian conflict.
http://www.boston.com/news/globe/editorial...onflict?mode=PF

POPPY PARADOX IN AFGHANISTAN - PAUL FISHSTEIN (BOSTON GLOBE, SEPTEMBER 16): An aggressive eradication-led approach, especially one involving chemical spraying, will exacerbate insecurity, hand the Taliban a golden propaganda opportunity, undermine both the Kabul government and its international supporters, and hurt most badly the poorest farmers and laborers. Afghanistan needs a greater active commitment to all of the elements of its National Drug Control Strategy, which is a combination of interdiction, public information, prosecution of known drug dealers, and development of the legal economy.
http://www.boston.com/news/globe/editorial...in_afghanistan/

INFLATING THE THREAT OF RADICAL ISLAM: NO, AMERICA IS NOT FIGHTING WW IV - STEVE CHAPMAN (CHICAGOTRIBUNE.COM, SEPTEMBER 16): Most Muslims are not terrorist sympathizers. A recent Gallup poll found that only 7 percent of the world's Muslims regard "the 9/11 attacks as completely justifiable and have an unfavorable view of the United States." Nor do many of them yearn to stamp out our freedoms. "When asked what they admire most about the West," reports Gallup, "Muslims frequently mention political freedom, liberty, fair judicial systems and freedom of speech."
www.chicagotribune.com/news/opinion/chi-oped0916chapmansep16,0,6299741.column

CONFEDERATION OF TERROR - PRAMIT PAL CHAUDHURI (WASHINGTONPOST.COM, SEPTEMBER 15): The "al Qaedaization" of the Taliban can be seen in their use of suicide bombing, human shields and bloodier kidnappings, practices abhorrent in traditional Pashtun culture.
http://www.washingtonpost.com/wp-dyn/conte...7091401980.html

A BULLY PULPIT - DAN K. THOMASSON (WASHINGTON TIMES, SEPTEMBER 16): Every time bin Laden?s propaganda machinery gears up, he is immediately awarded star status, with every word analyzed. Can you imagine the outcry that would have ensued had the translated ravings of Adolf Hitler been broadcast to the nation during World War II? Talk about aiding and abetting the goals of one's enemy.
http://www.washingtontimes.com/apps/pbcs.d...mplate=printart

THE GLOBAL REALIGNMENT: THE END OF A US-CENTRIC WORLD? - DETECTING EMERGING ISSUES (WASHINGTON POST, SEPTEMBER 17): In 2007, the US now longer guides the world...at least two others (Russia and China) exercise power more effectively than the US. In 2008 and beyond that number may well expand and many think this may actually stabilize the world.
http://www.secure-x-001.net/Secure-X.asp?D...mp;hidetop=true

NOT WITH A BANG BUT A WHIMPER:MCDONALD'S OPENS IN KREUZBERG - JOSH WARD (SPIEGEL INTERNATIONAL, SEPTEMBER 14): When McDonald's announced plans last May to open a franchise in Berlin's alternative neighborhood of Kreuzberg, some people thought the world was ending. But the streets were quiet for the restaurant's grand opening.
http://www.spiegel.de/international/german...,505817,00.html

http://www.newswithviews.com/baldwin/baldwin398.htm


September 14, 2007


Many conservatives (including Christian conservatives) seem to be jumping on the Fred Thompson bandwagon. As far as Republican presidential contenders go, the biggest loser of the Thompson surge is Mitt Romney. Many conservatives were supporting Romney only because they perceived him as being the best chance to beat Rudy Giuliani. A Hillary Clinton vs. Rudy Giuliani presidential election is a conservative's worst nightmare. Romney has the charm and money and is now saying the "right" things. Hence, he has enjoyed moderate support in the early goings of this campaign season. However, Romney's liberal track record is very disconcerting to conservatives. In their hearts, conservatives cannot trust Romney.

The entrance of Fred Thompson in the presidential race immediately took a toll on the Romney campaign. Romney's support is dropping like the temperature in northern Idaho in the wintertime. That trend will probably continue, as more conservatives catch the Thompson wave.

The problem is, Thompson is not a conservative. Worse still (for the GOP), Thompson cannot beat Hillary in a general election. Mark my words, if Fred Thompson is the Republican nominee next November, Hillary Clinton is your next president.

For that matter, I see only one Republican contender who might be able to beat Hillary in the 2008 general election: Ron Paul. Yes, you read it right. Ron Paul.

If Giuliani is the Republican nominee, conservative Christians will stay home or vote third party. (It is past time for conservative Christians to abandon the GOP, anyway. I encourage readers to check out the Constitution Party as a viable alternative.)

A Republican cannot win the White House without widespread support from evangelical Christians. And Giuliani will never have widespread support from evangelical Christians.

Newt Gingrich is toying with the idea of entering the race, but the truth is out about Newt. His infidelities, his membership in the Council on Foreign Relations (CFR), and his past betrayal of conservative principles precede him. Newt is damaged goods. He has little chance of obtaining the Republican nomination, and even if he did, he has no chance of beating Hillary. None. Zero. Zilch.

The only Republican with the potential to pull an upset victory over Clinton is Ron Paul. He is extremely popular among constitutionalists, independents, and many Christians (including me). He is doing very well in fundraising and on the Internet. And if Paul's message was given a fair hearing, evangelical Christians and traditional conservatives would come to support him.

The only reason that some conservative Christians do not already support Ron Paul is because they, themselves, do not understand constitutional government. Years of Republican chicanery and compromise have taken a toll on conservatives to the point that many of them don't understand truth when they see it. However, this could change. The more people learn about Ron Paul and constitutional government, the more they like him and it.

On the other hand, the more people learn about Fred Thompson, the more they will dislike him. As with Gingrich, Thompson is a member of the sinister cabal, the CFR, whose principle purpose for existence seems to be the construction of one-world government and the destruction of U.S. independence and sovereignty. This means Thompson will do nothing to stop illegal immigration. [Read]

He will do nothing to stand in the way of the emerging North American Union, and the NAFTA Superhighway, and he will continue the push for globalization.

In addition, Fred Thompson is the personification of a Washington insider-lobbyist. Thompson was a lobbyist for twenty years before being elected to the U.S. Senate. He represented organizations like the Tennessee Savings and Loan Association and deposed Haitian President Aristide. He continued lobbying after he left the Senate, including representing a British insurance company that wants to limit payments to the families of those who died from asbestos exposure. In fact, Thompson's presidential campaign is literally overflowing with advisors and donors who are lobbyists, former lobbyists or employees of lobbying firms. [Read] If Thompson was elected President, he would be the country's first Lobbyist-in-Chief.

On the life issue, Fred Thompson's record is clearly pro-choice. In 1991 and 1992, Thompson was a paid lobbyist for the pro-abortion organization, National Family Planning and Reproductive Health Association. He also lobbied against the Republican Party's pro-life plank. According to Terry Jeffrey, "[W]hen Fred Thompson was in the United States Senate, both times he ran for the Senate he ran as a pro-choice candidate."

One of the Religious Right's most respected leaders, Richard Viguerie, recently said this about Fred Thompson: "Fred Thompson's record may appear to be 'conservative,' but only by comparison with Rudy Giuliani, John McCain, or Mitt Romney, and a Less-of-a-Big Government Republican is still a Big Government Republican. And given his lack of conservative leadership as a Senator, it would be a grave mistake to expect conservative leadership from him as President."

However, there is another glaring (and I mean glaring) reason why any Republican presidential contender outside Ron Paul will not defeat Hillary next November: every other Republican presidential contender supports the Iraq war. That means every one of them (except Ron Paul) is completely out of touch with over two-thirds of the American electorate. And the longer our troops keep dying in Iraq, the more out of touch the GOP will become with a vast majority of the American people.

President Bush has already made it clear that he intends for American troops to remain in Iraq for years--if not decades--to come. And it also seems clear that the GOP presidential candidates (except Ron Paul) plan to follow Bush's madness.

Republicans need to wake up to reality: people are sick of George Bush, and they are sick of the Iraq war. Good grief! In less time than our troops have been in Iraq, our men and women in uniform defeated the combined forces of Germany, Japan, and Italy during World War II. In Iraq, we have not been able to secure the city of Baghdad.

When America's top military commander in Iraq, General David Petraeus, was asked if all the efforts in Iraq--including the latest surge--make America safer, his answer was an astounding, "I don't know." That is an incredible statement. After more than four years of combat in a country approximately the size of Texas, more than one-half trillion dollars in cost, and the sacrifice of thousands of American lives, our top military commander cannot honestly say that America is any safer. Yet, Bush says we are "winning," and he wants our troops to stay in Iraq indefinitely.

I dare say that by the time November 2008 rolls around, support for the Iraq war could be so low that the Republican Party may be lucky to even be competitive in the national elections, no matter who their candidate is (unless it is Ron Paul). This is because every single one of the other GOP presidential contenders (including Fred Thompson) is on record as supporting a continuing U.S. occupation of Iraq. In addition, most of them are on record as supporting an expansion of the war into other parts of the Middle East. (Interestingly enough, however, none of them wants to discuss--much less threaten--the real sponsors of terrorism: Russia and China.)

That Fred Thompson is surging to the position of Republican presidential frontrunner means that conservatives are desperate. Unfortunately, they do not seem to be desperate enough to look at their own erroneous policies. Neither are they willing to look at the recipe for their own recovery: principled, constitutional government.

I already hear the fat lady warming up.





Dr. Baldwin is the host of a lively, hard-hitting syndicated radio talk show on the Genesis Communications Network called, "Chuck Baldwin Live" This is a daily, one hour long call-in show in which Dr. Baldwin addresses current event topics from a conservative Christian point of view. Pastor Baldwin writes weekly articles on the internet http://www.ChuckBaldwinLive.com and newspapers.

[email="chuck@chuckbaldwinlive.com"]
[/email]

DETECTING EMERGING ISSUES
9/17/2007 7:14:11 P.M. As it tracks and analyzes thought and actions across the world, the Global Power Barometer (GPB) frequently catches sight of issues that will impact global politics. These are the issues that likely will move the icons in coming weeks. We'll share our peeks at the future as they pass certain momentum thresholds. In future days we'll categorize the "Emerging Issues" and provide snippets about the progress of significant trends. For now, here's what we're presently watching:




The Global Realignment: The end of a US-centric world?

• [/size] [size="2"]The media has recently caught on to the fact that US influence is in steep decline but still under the mainstream radar is the extent to which other players such as Russia, China, Iran, Venezuela are stepping into the vacuum. The US is still the military superpower but it's already sharing the global influence stage with emerging powers who can move global events as well or better.
  
  A dramatic global realignment appears to be in progress (and quickening) as the result of several factors:
  
  
  • The loss of US influence as a result of the Iraq war
  • A view across the globe resulting from Abu Ghraib and range of missteps that the US has lost the moral high ground it had enjoyed for decades
  • A feeling among global leaders that the US is without a coherent foreign policy strategy...a belief that has started feeding on itself and has emboldened US adversaries
  • China's rise, its smooth diplomatic technique, its re-alignment with Russia and its aggressive, clever drive to form new alliances with nations extending from Asia and Africa to South America
  • Russia's recent rise combined with Russian President Putin's domestic popularity and his reputation for effectively standing up to the West
  • The rise of non-aligned nations emboldened by the inability of the US to effectively use the extraordinary power it possesses
  • A view among key global leaders that the US will be bogged down in Iraq for many years (a view heightened by significantly by President Bush's September 13 Iraq speech), thus distracted and unable to respond effectively to key political moves by the range of international players
  • A recognition by the international community that the Bush Administration not only hasn't been able to deal effectively with non-state actors (e.g. terror groups like Al Qaeda) but they are holding their own or starting to win
  
  
  As a result of these and other factors, the world, from the top tier players to fringe nations to isolated political movements and ideologies, has recognized that a giant vacuum in global power has formed...and they've been moving to take advantage of it with no resistance from an essentially powerless US foreign policy establishment. Russia and China have beaten the US in forming critical energy alliances in Central Asia, in the Caucasus, in Africa and even in South America. At the recent APEC Summit, China was the 800 pound gorilla and President Bush was relegated to "also there" status. In 2007, the US now longer guides the world...at least two others (Russia and China) exercise power more effectively than the US. In 2008 and beyond that number may well expand and many think this may actually stabilize the world.

The Coming Energy Wars

• Supply and demand are easy to understand but these most traditional of influences over energy prices will be just part of the picture in late 2007 and 2008.Everyone knows that energy costs have skyrocketed over the past two years as the result of, among other factors, increased demand by the growing economies of India and China. But supply and demand are no longer the only factors impacting energy price and security. The foreign policies of energy producing nations, nationalization of energy fields, increasing inaccessibility of international oil and gas reserves to highly efficient US energy companies, the growing use of long-term energy contracts and control of pipelines will impact future energy availability and costs. That was clear with Europe last winter. Global Thought leaders are looking at how the following will impact energy prices and security: 1) Whether Russia will continue to be less than efficient in its internal energy development program and ineptly use the energy weapon (e.g., access to its vast energy resources and the resources of Central Asia) by threatening energy cut-offs to influence regional politics such as the bids by Georgia and the Ukraine for NATO membership; 2) whether the throwback (to the 70�s) trend of using long-term contracts to lock up energy supplies will put upward pressure on energy costs; 3) whether nations with nationalized oil and gas fields will increasingly limit access to their energy reserves by the more efficient major energy companies; 4) whether nations like Turkey and former Central Asian Soviet republics will increasingly make critical pipeline decisions with a view of quashing competition. Beyond this, many global analysts believe China�s no-questions-asked approach to the partners it chooses could give it a significant advantage, particularly in Africa and Iran. The one certainty is that the global trends in all these areas will put increasing pressure on supplies and security of energy resources for the US and Europe.

Latin America and the Rise of the Anti-American Left

• In 1823, US President James Monroe issued the Monroe Doctrine, naming all of the Western Hemisphere, and particularly Latin America under the United States' sphere of influence. Nearly 200 years later, the Monroe Doctrine looks like it could crumbleIn 2005-2006, Latin American politics have been veering to the left with the electoral victories of Evo Morales in Bolivia, Daniel Ortega in Nicaragua, and Rafael Correa in Ecuador (and a near victory by Andres Manuel Lopez Obrador in Mexico). These new leftist leaders add to current leftist regimes in Argentina, Brazil and Cuba. Perhaps the most outspoken of the leftist leaders is US opponent Hugo Chavez in Venezuela, who was just reelected by a 23% margin. These nations will pose a growing challenge to US interests in Latin America, as they seek to align themselves elsewhere. Already, Chavez has been making loud and brash statements on the world stage, pledging allegiance to Iran, denouncing President Bush and the United States at the United Nations, and signing trade pacts with China. Mercosur, the regional trade agreement instituted to promote free trade throughout South America (similar to NAFTA), is gaining supporters and seeks to give Latin America the same economic clout that the US and EU have. Furthermore, many Latin American nations are members of the Non-Aligned Movement (NAM), which seeks to provide viable alternatives to American and European hegemony. As Chinese investments in Venezuelan oil, in the reconstruction of the Panama Canal, and in mines grows in the region, watch for more independent action and less concord with the United States.

The Ascendant Tiger: China's journey to the top

• Well-planned, innovative, quiet strategies on the diplomatic, economic, educational and military fronts are helping China build its power more quickly and effectively than any other global entity.China is building a sphere of influence that extends from Asia and Africa to South America. From the way it negotiates natural resource contracts to its new foreign aid strategies to its new military alliances, China is usurping power from its neighbors, the US and Europe. Global Thought believes China's economic growth and its evolving relationships with Russia, India, Pakistan and potentially Iran, along with its quickly growing influence on non-aligned nations combined with the vacuum being created by the decline in US influence could well make it a power to match or exceed the US global political power far sooner than anyone has thought. Chinese investment may in fact resurrect oil production in Iran�Global Thought believes it is conceivable that China could end up the winner in Iraq also. Indeed, China at present is more than matching US power as is obvious by its daily GPB positioning relative to the US. Because many Global Thought leaders believe the US has no strategy to counter China's rise, watch for China to stay to the positive side of the US icon from some time to come.

Armageddon Watch: The new arms race

• Iran offers to share nuclear technology with its Gulf neighbors and Russia looks to assist Brazil and Argentina with nuclear development...plower plants not bombs but how far is the jump to weaponry?A global arms race has begun. The lesson from Iraq, that a country shouldn't bluff about having WMDs, is spreading. North Korea and Iran are just the first to be making practical use of that lesson. The head of the IAEA, Mohamed El Baradei, estimates that about 40 countries could develop nuclear weapons. The concern of thought leaders is not, however, that the US or Russia will be challenged. A big worry is that nuclear weapons will fall into the hands of non-state ideological, religious or political movements where retaliation is impossible (e.g., no one knows who is responsible and/or where they live) or there is no deterent (e.g., the perpetrators believe in Armageddon and welcome retaliation on their hapless and perhaps unknowing host). Most frighteningly, the goal of some of these players (e.g., al Qaeda) may specifically be to foment war among two or more nation states (not where they live) and create a power vacuum in which they can advance their own global objectives (bin Laden's WTC attack very effectively drew the US into stirring the Middle East pot, giving Islamists an opportunity to gain power they could never have created themselves). The next most significant concern of Global Thought is regional war among nations possessing the bomb (e.g., Israel/Iran, India/Pakistan). Thought leaders by a wide margin believe the shattering of the Nuclear Non-proliferation Treaty, diminishing global stability and the activist foreign policy of the US over the last 6 years have inched the nuclear genie further out of the bottle. In recent days, Iran's neighbors (e.g., Saudi Arabia) have heated up their talk about beginning nuclear programs. Iran cleverly has now offered to share nuclear technology within the region. Whether Israeli PM Olmert intentionally let his tongue slip about Israel's nukes (as a subtle threat) or did it unintentionally, the race appears to be heating up.

The Next War?

• A growing number of writers and analysts, as well as political leaders, are talking about a wider war (or wars) brewing in the Middle East.There is more than a little talk of a wider Middle East conflict even as the US is attempting to exit Iraq and Israel has reached a temporary cease-fire with the Palestinians. Syrian leader, Bashir al-Assad warned recently that Israel could attack Syria (which some interpret as an invitation). Various writers have speculated that Iran's President Mahmoud Ahmadinejad might have adopted Osama bin Laden's strategy of drawing the US into further stirring the Middle East pot, a move some believe would work to the advantage both of Iran and Islamists. Jordan�s King Abdullah has warned that in 2007 three civil wars could erupt in the Middle East (among the Palestinians, Lebanon, Iraq). Israeli Prime Minister Ehud Olmert has started the Israeli Defense Forces on a course of preparing for the possibility of war with Iran. Some conservatives in the US are saying that the problem with Iraq is that the US didn't expand the battlefield far enough (to include Iran and even Saudi Arabia). And, of course, Islamists are on a roll. Right now, it's perhaps all speculation but with at least 2 US strike groups in the area, Iraq in turmoil, Iran moving ahead with its nuclear program, and several nations (not to mention political movements) on a hair trigger, the old saying that "Daggers drawn tend to draw blood" needs to be considered. Emerging Issues will watch as the situation unfolds.

The Lighthouse
“Enlightening Ideas for Public Policy”
Volume 9, Issue 38: September 17, 2007

In this week’s issue:

1) The Fallacy of Going to War for Oil
2) Dirty Bombs or Wasteful Spending?
3) Musharraf and the West
4) Nature Posts Higgs’s Insights on Peer Review

The Fallacy of Going to War for Oil

Commenting on a statement in his new book that the Iraq War “is largely about oil,” Federal Reserve Chairman Alan Greenspan claims that before the war he told the White House that toppling Saddam Hussein was essential for securing world oil supplies. Greenspan’s view, however, represents a common misunderstanding refuted by Independent Institute Research Fellow David R. Henderson, author of the new Independent Policy Report, “Do We Need to Go to War for Oil?”

“Many people believe that foreign oil producers who export large quantities of oil can compel U.S. consumers to line up for gasoline,” writes Henderson. “While this belief became popular in the 1970s after OPEC reduced supply, it is false.” Only American-imposed price controls can have this effect, he argues in the 24-page paper.

The world market for oil acts like the game of musical chairs in which the number of chairs equals the number of players, Henderson explains. If, for example, the ruler of an oil-exporting country in the Middle East maintains output but cuts exports to the United States by 753,000 barrels a day, he must find a new buyer for that oil. The new buyer would in turn simply free up its former supplier’s product, making it available to the United States, with the increased cost to Americans of only about $1 per person per year.

“The only way a foreign oil producer can harm Americans is by cutting output, but that producer will then harm itself and also harm all other oil users, not just U.S. consumers,” Henderson continues. “This harm is likely to be well under 0.5 percent of U.S. gross domestic product (GDP).”

“Do We Need to Go to War for Oil?” by David R. Henderson (Independent Policy Report, 9/07)

Also see:

A New Oil Crisis? Not So Fast, by David Isenberg (Asia Times, 8/9/07)

“Troop Withdrawal: Looking Beyond Iraq,” featuring Ivan Eland, Leon T. Hadar, David R. Henderson, Charles Pena (Washington, DC, 9/21/07)

Dirty Bombs or Wasteful Spending?

Using funds from the Department of Homeland Security, the Los Angeles Police Department recently purchased seven radiation-detection devices designed to help locate a “dirty bomb”—six hand-held devices and one designed for use in a helicopter. But because the devices have only an 800-foot detection radius, they will be of little use in protecting the 468-square-mile city from a dirty bomb, according to Independent Institute Senior Fellow Charles Peña.

The devices are also likely to detect a large number of “false positives,” according to Peña, because radioactive materials are used routinely in hospitals, research, and industry, and are found in common products such as fertilizers, ceramics, bananas, kitty litter, and smoke detectors. Fortunately, the dirty bomb threat to Los Angles is probably overstated, according to Peña.

“There are only two known cases—in Russia and Chechnya—of attempted terrorism using a radiological dispersion device,” writes Peña. Dirty bombs have been rare because they are relatively hard to construct and use. Furthermore, “the actual physical damage caused by a dirty bomb would likely be no more than if were a conventional bomb using the same amount of explosives,” writes Peña. One wonders whether Homeland Security and the LAPD have their priorities in order.

“Getting Them Before They Get Us,” by Charles V. Peña (9/17/07) Spanish Translation (forthcoming)

More by Charles Pena

“Troop Withdrawal: Looking Beyond Iraq,” featuring Ivan Eland, Leon T. Hadar, David R. Henderson, Charles Pena (Washington, DC, 9/21/07)

Musharraf and the West

In his latest column, Independent Institute Senior Fellow Alvaro Vargas Llosa takes Western governments to task for supporting General Pervez Musharraf “to lead the cause against Islamic fundamentalism in a region central to that struggle.” Musharraf, in fact, has had the opposite effect: His heavy repression of opposing political groups, such as the Pakistan People’s Party and the Muslim League, has rid the country of the few means it had to dilute radical fundamentalism.

“For the umpteenth time in history, a military ruler who promised to bring order has generated worse disorders than those he set out to correct,” writes Vargas Llosa. “Leaders in Washington, London and other Western nations have now belatedly realized that dictatorship was not the solution to the problems that had been incubated during Pakistan’s democratic period. They should have known better.”

Not only has western support for Pakistan’s military rule undermined the development of strong democratic institutions, it has also increased suspicion about Western motives in the war on terrorism. “It will not be easy for a future civilian government in Islamabad to sell to the Pakistani public the idea that the liberal democracies of the West are their friends,” concludes Vargas Llosa.

“Pakistan’s Thug,” by Alvaro Vargas Llosa (9//07) Spanish Translation

Liberty for Latin America: How to Undo Five Hundred Years of State Oppression, by Alvaro Vargas Llosa

The Che Guevara Myth, by Alvaro Vargas Llosa

Center on Global Prosperity (Alvaro Vargas Llosa, Director)

Visit our Spanish-language website.

Visit our Spanish-language blog.

Nature Posts Higgs’s Insights on Peer Review

Independent Institute Senior Fellow Robert Higgs’s insights about peer review have found its way to a web log of one of world’s leading scientific magazines. Nature’s “Peer to Peer” blog examines the referring process for scientific articles submitted to the esteemed periodical, as well as on broader issues related to peer review.

“The peer-review process is not, contrary to popular belief, a nearly flawless system of Olympian scrutiny,” writes Higgs. “Any editor of a peer-reviewed journal who desires to reject or accept a submission can easily do so by choosing appropriate referees. Unfortunately, personal vendettas, ideological conflicts, professional jealousies, methodological disagreements, sheer self-promotion and irresponsibility are as much part of the scientific world as any other.”

After explaining why a peer-reviewed “scientific consensus” cannot be assumed to be free of bias, Higgs advises an attitude of caveat emptor. “Good rules of thumb for the non-scientist might be the following: government-funded research that is used to justify that government’s policy should be suspect, whether or not it’s peer-reviewed; and the research of scientists who appear at press conferences in the company of politicians or activists whose agendas they are there to support should be suspect, whether or not the work upholds the consensus opinion.”

“Peer Review and the Scientific Consensus,” by Robert Higgs (Nature, 9/17/07).

Also see:

“Peer Review, Publication in Top Journals, Scientific Consensus, and So Forth,” by Robert Higgs (5/7/07) Spanish Translation

More by Robert Higgs

THE LIGHTHOUSE, edited by Carl P. Close, is made possible by the generous contributions of supporters of the Independent Institute. If you enjoy THE LIGHTHOUSE, please consider making a donation to the Independent Institute.

THE LIGHTHOUSE
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Military intervention in Iran would have "catastrophic" consequences: Moscow
e9 = new Object(); e9.size = "160x600,120x600"; e9.noAd = 1; MOSCOW, Sept 18 (AFP) Sep 18, 2007
Any US military intervention in Iran would be a "political error" that would have "catastrophic" consequences, Russian deputy foreign minister Alexander Losyukov said in an interview published Tuesday."Generally speaking, bombings of Iran would be a bad move that would end with catastrophic consequences," he told the daily Vremya Novosti.

Losyukov expressed the hope that there would not be an escalation of tension in the region, at least before the end of a summit of Caspian Sea countries due to be held in Tehran on October 16.

"I don't know if the Americans will bomb during the Caspian summit. I think they will refrain, otherwise they would have serious problems," he said in reply to a question.

"We are convinced that there is no military solution to the Iranian problem. It's impossible. Besides, it is quite clear that there is no military solution to the Iraq problem either. But in the case of Iran everything could be even more complicated," he said.

At the same time, Losyukov did not rule out an eventual evacuation of the Russian experts working on construction of a nuclear plant at Bushehr.

"As the situation in Iran is difficult, we have plans to evacuate our experts. They are drawn up and could be used," the deputy minister said, adding the hope that this would not be necessary.

The use of force would only "worsen the situation in the Middle East" and "bring a very negative reaction from the Muslim world."

"Of course I cannot know what is being thought in the United States," Losyukov said, but their military intervention in Iran "would be a big diplomatic and political error."

French Prime Minister Francois Fillon said Monday tensions with Iran are now "extreme", heightening a diplomatic storm caused by Foreign Minister Bernard Kouchner's warning on Sunday that the world should prepare for a possible conflict over Iran's alleged work on a nuclear weapon.

US Energy Secretary Samuel Bodman said Monday the United States remains "determined to use diplomacy" to resolve the Iranian nuclear crisis.

"We have said all along the United States government position has been that we are determined to use diplomacy to resolve this matter," Bodman told reporters at a meeting in Vienna of the International Atomic Energy Agency (IAEA).

"I am hopeful that Iran will comply with the UN Security Council resolutions and we continue to press them to do this. That is ultimately the answer to all of this," Bodman said, referring to the UN's imposing two rounds of sanctions to get Iran to stop enriching uranium, which can be used to make atom bombs.

US Defense Secretary Robert Gates had said Sunday in Washington that the United States will stick to diplomatic and economic pressure to force Iran to halt its nuclear drive, but "all options are on the table."

Iran denies Western allegations it seeks atomic weapons, saying its nuclear drive is aimed at providing electricity for a growing population whose fossil fuels will one day run out.

All rights reserved. © 2005 Agence France-Presse. Sections of the information displayed on this page (dispatches, photographs, logos) are protected by intellectual property rights owned by Agence France-Presse. As a consequence, you may not copy, reproduce, modify, transmit, publish, display or in any way commercially exploit any of the content of this section without the prior written consent of Agence France-Presse.

'War' talk heightens Iran nuclear dispute
e9 = new Object(); e9.size = "160x600,120x600"; e9.noAd = 1; PARIS, Sept 17 (AFP) Sep 17, 2007
France followed up a warning that the Iran nuclear crisis could lead to war by calling on Monday for European sanctions against Tehran.French Prime Minister Francois Fillon said tensions with Iran are now "extreme", heightening a diplomatic storm caused by Foreign Minister Bernard Kouchner's warning on Sunday that the world should prepare for a possible conflict over Iran's alleged work on a nuclear weapon.

The comments infuriated Iranian leaders who accused France of stoking tensions. International Atomic Energy Agency chief Mohamed ElBaradei called the war talk "hype".

While French leaders said they would prefer a negotiated settlement, they also launched a proposal to establish European sanctions against Iran, outside of those already implemented by the United Nations.

The five permanent members of the UN Security Council plus Germany are to discuss new UN sanctions on Iran, which has rejected demands to stop enriching uranium.

Kouchner met his Dutch counterpart Maxime Verhagen in Paris and said European countries should prepare their own non-UN sanctions.

"These would be European sanctions that each country, individually, must put in place with its own banking, commercial and industrial system. The English and the Germans are interested in talking about this. We will try to find a common European position," Kouchner said.

Britain, France and Germany have led European efforts, with US backing, to try to persuade Iran to end its nuclear efforts in exchange for a package of economic and diplomatic measures.

Verhagen said that if the Security Council did not agree more sanctions, the Dutch government would be willing "to apply European Union sanctions in common with the United States sanctions."

On Sunday, Kouchner warned that "we have to prepare for the worst, and the worst is war." If Tehran possessed an atomic weapon, it would be a "real danger for the whole world," he said in an interview.

Speaking Monday, the French prime minister said: "The Iranians must understand that tension has reached an extreme point... in the relationship between Iran and its neighbours."

France has taken a more aggressive line since President Nicolas Sarkozy came to power in May. Many analysts say Paris is now moving very close to US policy.

Some of France's own European neighbours reacted nervously to Kouchner's strident tones, with Austrian Foreign Minister Ursula Plassnik criticising his "martial rhetoric".

"I am for continued work towards a negotiated solution," she said in Vienna where the French campaign has cast a shadow over the International Atomic Energy Agency (IAEA) conference in Vienna where Iran is top of the agenda.

Italy's Foreign Minister Massimo D'Alema said, "I think new wars are not the solution to the problem and that they could create new tragedies and new dangers."

Iran insists its nuclear work is peaceful and Vice President Reza Aghazadeh, who is also head of Iran's Atomic Energy Organisation (AEOI), warned the West against seeking a confrontation.

Western countries "have always chosen the path of confrontation instead of the path of understanding and cordial relations toward the great nation of Iran," he told the UN meeting in Vienna.

"The great nation of Iran has recorded your discriminatory behavior and performance in its memory and will not forget," Aghazadeh said.

In Tehran, foreign ministry spokesman Mohammad Ali Hosseini said in a statement: "It seems that the French foreign minister has forgotten the policy of the European Union" with his war warning.

"The use of such words creates tensions and is contrary to the cultural history and civilisation of France," he added.

The IAEA director general also said that force should not be used yet to resolve the Iranian nuclear crisis.

"We need always to remember that use of force could only be resorted to when ... every other option has been exhausted. I don't think we are at all there," ElBaradei told reporters on the sidelines of the conference, at which he expressed regret at Iran's refusal to fall in line with UN resolutions.

Without mentioning the French comments, he said "a lot of hype" had been raised about the Iran case.

All rights reserved. © 2005 Agence France-Presse. Sections of the information displayed on this page (dispatches, photographs, logos) are protected by intellectual property rights owned by Agence France-Presse. As a consequence, you may not copy, reproduce, modify, transmit, publish, display or in any way commercially exploit any of the content of this section without the prior written consent of Agence France-Presse.

Open Letter to a Democratic President by Richard Bulliet
January 21, 2009, Dear (Sir or Madam): May history remember your term in office as the greatest political turn-around in American history. Now to Iraq...
more...

Three Cultures, Three Views of Terror by Rami G. Khouri
A trip from Beirut to Boston, by way of London, reveals three different views of the global crisis of terrorism. In the case of the United States, a refusal to address reality is aiding the global terrorists' causes.
more...

Attacking Iran on the Agenda? by Immanuel Wallerstein
Those groups desirous of and promoting a U.S. attack on Iran are essentially two: Dick Cheney and friends, and Israel's rightwing government and friends. Given their reasons for such an attack -- and the arguments of those against it -- would it be "rational"? No.
more...

Six Years After 9/11 by Rami G. Khouri
Arabs, Israelis, Iranians and Americans, above all, must find a way to jointly examine the whole cycle of relationships, conditions and policies that have bound them together in an increasingly violent sequence of events.
more...

September 11, 2007
Reading the General Petraeus report on the Iraq debacle reminded me of nothing so much as Jack Nicholson in A Few Good Men yelling, "You can't handle the truth!"

The report goes to great lengths to paint a picture of progress in Iraq, but the truth is a far different story. As the New York Times and the Washington Post have reported, the declining number of deaths in Iraq that Petraeus cites depends on a few accounting tricks: like not counting a death as an assassination if you're shot in the front of the head, and not counting deaths by car bombs.

So, what are we really doing in Iraq?

We're building and maintaining permanent military bases from which our military will ensure a near-monopoly of the world's second-largest oil reserve. All this... for a small cadre of corporate fatheads, including the top members of Bush, Inc. The American taxpayer will be burdened with footing the bill for security in Iraq ($2 billion PER DAY!) to provide stable working conditions for Exxon-Mobil, Shell, Halliburton, not to mention the dozens of corporations feeding off the military spend bosom.

But this White House clearly believes you can't handle the truth.

Well, those of us in the energy world can handle it, and here it is: because the U.S. could not tolerate the possibility that the second-largest oil bonanza on Earth might be held beyond our reach by a dictator who hated us.

The fact is, the U.S. uses fully one-quarter of the world's oil, but we possess only about two percent of its reserves, and we rely on imports for about 60% of our consumption.

Meanwhile, Peak Oil is either just behind us, or nearly upon us...

Without guaranteed access to Iraq's oil, we absolutely could not maintain our military and economic dominance of the world. Vice President Cheney has known this, even spoken publicly about it, for many years. And why else would he have convened a meeting of Big Oil representatives within his first month in the White House to pore over maps of Iraq's oil fields, as if that were the top priority of the administration?

We at EnergyAndCapital.com have prepared a full report, called "The Truth about Oil," and we're happy to share these truths with you.

To get our new report, simply sign up for the free Energy and Capital e-Letter, a daily advisory on the fast-moving realities in the energy and oil sector, written and edited by energy and natural resources investing expert Chris Nelder.




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MoveOn vs. Rudy: Hillary Gets It Right, Elizabeth Edwards Gets It Wrong
Jane Hamsher: Hillary seizes the opportunity to pivot and attack -- forcing Rudy into embracing George Bush and his horribly unpopular war.


Blackwater Banned From Iraq, But They Probably Won't Leave
Larry Johnson: There are some Iraqis who genuinely want to run their own country. But we are not about to give them the keys to the car.

The Iran Attack and Aftermath
“Whoopie! We’re All Gonna Die!”

by Gary Leupp / September 17th, 2007

“Yes. We’re going to hit Iran, big time. Whatever political discussions that are going on is window dressing and perhaps even a red herring. I see what’s going on below deck here in the hangars and weapons bays. And I have a sick feeling about how it’s all going to turn out.” (Full article …)

“Human Beings of Another People”
Neo-Zionist Babble in Babel

by J.A. Miller / September 17th, 2007

People always send me articles by Uri Avnery. I never ever post them. Never was a fan — and I didn’t admire his war years [in Lebanon] on behalf of the Israel occupation forces…Avnery reproduces generalizations from The Arab Mind — almost word-for-word. (Full article …)

Coming Attractions: “The Constitution Was Getting Pretty Ratty Anyway”
by Mark Drolette / September 17th, 2007

The scene: Late one night at a listening post, deep in the bowels of the Department of Homeland Security. Two agents, a veteran and a rookie, huddle over a wiretap monitor. (Full article …)

It Didn’t Start with Iraq
A Review of the film War Made Easy

by Robert Jensen / September 15th, 2007

When George Bush began trying to justify the occupation of Iraq by invoking the “lessons” of Vietnam, I had the urge to send him a copy of the new documentary War Made Easy featuring Norman Solomon. That’s hardly surprising — no doubt we’ve all had the occasional desire to try to educate our president. (Full article …)

All Things Fed
Robert Kuttner
September 17, 2007 | web only
Daily commentary on the financial meltdown and the demonstrated failure of right-wing economics.Today: Will Bernanke deliver a big interest rate cut? Why is Greenspan criticizing Bush's tax cuts now? And is big business really seeking regulation?

Monday, September 17, 2007

Jacob Hornberger’s Blog [Blog Archives]


Greenspan’s Criticism of Bush
by Jacob G. Hornberger

In his new book, Federal Reserve Chairman Alan Greenspan makes the same point we have been making for years about President Bush’s out-of-control federal spending. Greenspan, who describes himself as a “lifelong libertarian Republican,” said that Bush’s out-of-control federal spending was “a major mistake.”

Moreover, Greenspan said that congressional Republicans had “swapped principle for power. They ended up with neither. They deserved to lose,” making the same points that we made here at FFF almost a year ago. (See “They Deserved to Lose,” November 2006, by Jacob G. Hornberger.)

Meanwhile, in an interview to be published in the German magazine Sterns this week, Greenspan says that it is possible that the Euro could replace the dollar as the reserve currency of choice.

For his part, Bush expressed surprise over Greenspan’s criticisms. He says that the federal spending was necessary as part of the “war on terror,” which presumable includes his attack on Iraq, a country whose citizenry and government had nothing to do with terrorism against the U.S. until Bush invaded and occupied it.

At least Greenspan has put Bush in a position of acknowledging that U.S. foreign policy is a primary factor behind the out-of-control federal spending. When Bush refers to his “war on terror,” he’s really talking about the importance of maintaining the big government, pro-empire foreign policy of the U.S. government, a policy that includes billions of dollars spent on foreign aid, for foreign military bases, on the military-industrial complex, on the U.S. military, and on the invasion and occupation of Iraq.

My hunch is that while most Americans still do not realize all the adverse implications of out-of-control federal spending, they’re going to yet find out the costs of their government’s serving as the world’s international policeman, invader, interloper, welfare provider, intervener, and meddler. Let’s just hope that Americans recognize the cause of the problem rather than try to blame it on “unseen forces” or, even worse, on “the failure of free enterprise.” They will then be able to make an intelligent choice on whether the continuation of a pro-empire, pro-interventionist foreign policy is worth it, at least in terms of monetary costs.

No doubt conservatives will be campaigning in the upcoming 2008 elections in favor of their old mantra “free enterprise, private property, fiscal responsibility, and limited government.” What a crock, as Greenspan correctly suggests.

Mr. Hornberger is founder and president of The Future of Freedom Foundation.

Donald Boudreaux's’s Blog [Blog Archives]
Your report "Years of Global Growth Raise Inflation Worries" (June 6) is confused and confusing. It's incorrect to say that "global growth is fueling inflation rather than restraining it."...

Sheldon Richman’s Blog
George II and his war cheerleaders insist that U.S. troops must remain in Iraq for as far as the eye can see if a genocidal bloodbath is to be averted. Very interesting in light of this from Sidney Blumenthal of Salon.com...

Jim Bovard’s Blog
Ron Paul Folks at DC Antiwar Protest.

Do Americans Owe Service to the Nation?
by Sheldon Richman

<li>Ike Was Right and We Are Becoming What We Despise (Video)
by Robert Scheer

<li>Whatever Happened to "Uncle Sam Wants You"?
by Michael Nolan

<li>Pro-Democracy Killing in Iraq
by Jacob G. Hornberger

<li>How We're Restoring the Republic with Truth and Fearlessness
by Karen Kwiatkowski

<li>Conservative Hypocrisy
by Sheldon Richman

Bush Administration War Plans directed against Iran - by Michel Chossudovsky - 2007-09-16 The Pentagon is "taking steps to ensure military confrontation with Iran" because diplomatic initiatives have allegedly failed to reach a solution.

VIDEO: Fox News: It's Good for Wall Street to Bomb Iran? - 2007-09-17

Losing Both Wars: Scott Horton Interviews Michael Scheuer: Antiwar Radio:: "Really, it is the American political establishment that is marching to al Qaeda’s beat"

IAEA chief: Talk about war against Iran contra-constructive : Mohamed ElBaradei, director general of the International Atomic Energy Agency (IAEA), called on the international community Monday to settle Iran's nuclear issues through negotiation, stressing that talk about possible war against Iran was "contra-constructive".

US Iran report branded dishonest : The UN nuclear watchdog has protested to the US government over a report on Iran's nuclear programme, calling it "erroneous" and "misleading".

Russia says "disaster" a military strike on Iran : Russia said on Monday that a military strike against Iran would lead to a "disaster" and would damage the already deteriorating situation in the Middle East.

Run on UK bank continues: Northern Rock 'shredded' as savers withdraw £9,600 a second: THE future for troubled bank Northern Rock was looking increasingly desperate last night after it emerged that customers had withdrawn more than £2 billion in savings since Friday.

Ripple effect could be national omen : To understand how the housing bust may ripple through the broader American economy, look beyond the countless for-sale signs that dot this middle-class city. Instead, stop by Boater's Landing, where salespeople sit idle, hoping someone will once again want to buy a boat.

On two U.S. coasts, renters squeezed by lack of affordable housing : This isn't how Simon and Jennifer Morris envisioned married life - sharing a charity-subsidized suite with four other hard-up families, abiding by a curfew and other rules that make them feel they are back in high school.

U.S. feels the sting of rising joblessness: Working folks across America hear the news that the economy shed jobs last month and start to worry about their own. Businesses become more cautious about planning and hiring, even if their particular company or industry is seeing robust demand.

E*Trade Cuts Earnings Estimate by 25%, Citing Mortgage Losses : E*Trade Financial Corp., the online brokerage that also underwrites mortgages, cut its estimate of 2007 earnings per share by at least 25 percent, partly on costs to exit the wholesale lending business

UNITED STATES: Can the Fed contain recession risk?

The Federal Reserve will tomorrow determine how monetary policy should respond to recent financial market turmoil. Tightening credit conditions appear to have exacerbated gathering macroeconomic risks to growth. Markets are focused on whether Fed Chairman Ben Bernanke, facing the first major crisis of his tenure, can contain credit contagion. Sagging employment growth gives Bernanke adequate cover to ease monetary policy. However, slumping house prices could still broadly weaken consumer spending. If this occurs, the Fed will be forced to slash interest rates by 100-150 basis points -- setting the stage for a new business cycle in late 2008.

Success in al-Anbar: Can it be sustained?
ASK THIS
Middle East expert Wayne White writes that our new bottom-up alliances have great potential – as long as we don’t overstay our welcome. But they also may be setting the stage for a supercharged civil war.

The Story That Never Was: The "Silencing" of the B-52 "Whistleblowers"

It seems like somebody is throwing misinformation out to the Progressive community either to discredit us or to have us chase phony stories around that in effect, waste our time. I recently received information, and I see that many of us did, about the supposedly "dead" soldiers that helped to "out" the story on that B-52 that carried nuclear weapons from Minot AFB to Barksdale AFB. I heard about it from an e-mail that was sent by a good friend. Since I had just been burned by the "Amero" coin story in which I received information that the Denver mint had begun making "Amero's", I was suspicious and asked my friend to check his sources. Sure enough, my friend wrote that he had been duped again. The worst part of this saga is that he traced the story back to the same source that had released misinformation on the Amero!

My source that I believe would rather be left nameless traced the original story that he got to another source. He actually called that source to find out where he got that information and it traced back to Hal Turner. The original article that wrote about the so-called "deaths" was on the Military Times website. Since Michael Hoffman wrote the article I called him today. Mr. Hoffman was very forthcoming and told me that he had two sources that told him about the story, and when he investigated it, he found that the two servicemen that perished, but that they had no connection whatsoever with the bomb-laden B-52.

Mr. Hoffman also told me that he had received e-mail from Hal Turner about the article and he had advised Mr. Turner to remove the article from his website on the premise that he was disseminating fraudulent information. Apparently Hal Turner cares nothing for the truth as you can see here: http://www.halturnershow.com/index.html and that the story is still on his website.

I have read a few articles, one here at Opednews.com that still maintain that the soldiers that turned the information over to the Military Times have been silenced…permanently. This is pure misinformation and Hal Turner along with all that jumped on this story should have checked their sources more thoroughly. This could have been a counter intelligence program designed to make anyone repeating this story look ridiculous. This isn't an isolated case. People that write articles should be very careful to check their sources, if at least two impeccable sources can't verify a story, that story should remain out of print until a second source has been verified.

That's the way I see it.Labels: B 52 Story, Hal Turner, Minot AFB

posted by Timothy V. Gatto @ 4:37 PM

Is the Federal Government Legitimate?
It originated in an illegal coup, says Laurence M. Vance.

Ron 'Veto' Paul
Kevin Southwick on his presidency.

What’s the Canadian medical system like, anyway?
COMMENTARY
Canada might as well be on the other side of the moon for as much as the U.S. press tells us about its health care system. Morton Mintz says he could find only one in-depth article on it, and that was published in 1992. (First in a series)

<h2 class="date-header">Tuesday, September 18, 2007</h2> <h3 class="post-title"> Right-Zionists try to Silence Walt at the University of Montana </h3>

Richard Drake, chair of the History Department at the University of Montana, describes what it is like to invite Stephen Walt, a respected political scientist at Harvard University and author of a best-selling book on the Israel lobby, to lecture on campus. The techniques of smearing and pressure politics deployed against his appearance can only be described as a form of Zionist-fascism (whether deriving from Christian Zionists or Jewish ones), which is a much more potent danger to open intellectual inquiry in the United States than is usually realized.

At Walt's own university, Harvard, there have been a number of disinvitees-- academics asked to speak and who then saw the invitation withdrawn, apparently on grounds of disagreeing with Alan Dershowitz.

See also Elliot Colla's article at the Chronicle of Higher Education on how the Likudnik "David Project" and a Hillel Center rabbi attempted to interfere with the holding of a conference on threats to academic freedom, held at Brown University last May!

I hope academics all around the country will step up to thwart this dangerous attempt at silencing views not approved by the Right-Zionists (i.e. people who would vote for Bibi Netanyahu if they lived in Israel, and who think they have the right to decide who the chair of the history department at the University of Montana should be and who that chair can invite to speak on campus).

Some of the policing of thought, of course, is by Right-Zionists against liberal Jews, a form of anti-Semitism that seeks to brand other Jews as unpatriotic. Tony Karon argues that this ploy is running out of steam.

Norman Finkelstein reflects on his recent travails and seems suprisingly optimistic (essentially agreeing with Karon). (For our Committee on Academic Freedom letter on the Finkelstein denial of tenure, see this link.)

And see George Bisharat's Op-ed in the Baltimore Sun: "Two hundred thousand Palestinian children began school in the Gaza Strip this month without a full complement of textbooks. Why? Because Israel, which maintains a stranglehold over this small strip of land along the Mediterranean even after withdrawing its settlers from there in 2005, considers paper, ink and binding materials not to be "fundamental humanitarian needs."

Gaza is the worst outcome of Western colonialism anywhere in the world outside the Belgian Congo.

posted by Juan Cole @ 9/18/2007 01:09:00 AM 0 comments

<h2 class="date-header">Monday, September 17, 2007</h2> <h3 class="post-title"> Greenspan: War about Oil;
Bloody Sunday in Iraq </h3>

<a href="http://www.latimes.com/news/printedition/asection/la-na-oil17sep17,1,553323.story?coll=la-news-a_section">Alan Greenspan confirms that he urged the Bush administration to take out Saddam on grounds of petroleum security for the US, and says one official told him, 'unfortunately we can't talk about oil.' Long-time readers know that I think restructuring the architecture of US energy security was among the major motives for the Iraq War. This thesis does not contradict the Mearsheimer-Walt theory that the Israel lobby and Israeli security formed a major impetus to the war, since US and Israeli interests in energy security overlap. It is just circumstantial, but I see a nexus in the American Enterprise Institute of Exxon-Mobil money and former officials and Neoconservative intellectuals, both with the ear of Dick Cheney.

A lot of violence was reported around in Iraq on Sunday in the wire services. It is worth going and looking at the Reuters and McClatchy roundups, just so that one is not lulled into thinking that the security situation is all cleared up. This is still a no man's land, with guerrilla hijacking vehicles with people still in them (a child was kidnapped this way in Kirkuk), with bombs and mortars going off, and with vicious firefights between private armies, all with overtones of a set of creeping ethnic civil wars. Although some reports talked of 30 killed, I count many nearly twice that, and of course only a fraction of deaths are reported.

McClatchy reports significant violence in Iraq on Sunday.

' - 5 civilians killed and 22 injured in a café in the centre of the town of Tuz Khurmatu, to the south of Kirkuk as a suicide bomber wearing an explosive vest detonated himself at 11:15 this morning. The suicide bomber was riding a bicycle and detonated as he reached the café; the numbers given are a primary estimation. The explosion also caused the destruction of nearby houses and shops. . .

Security personnel of a Convoy Escort Team of a Private Security Company [working for the US State Department] opened fire, killing 9 civilians and injuring 15 in Nisoor Sq, central Baghdad, at 12:30 this afternoon, said Iraqi Police. . .

Reuters reports more civil war violence in Iraq for Sunday. I see patterns here. There were two major attacks in Diyala northeast of Baghdad, one killing 14 and wounding 7, and the kidnapping of 8 persons in an ambulance hijacking in the provincial capital. In the Sunni Arab center of Samarra there was a mortar attack with casualties. There were several major bombings in Sunni Arab parts of Baghdad itself, and two district council members were assassinated, surely a sign that someone is attempting to displace municipal leaders. Some sort of major altercation broke out between a US private security company and guerrillas in the capital. In the north, there were bombings in Kirkuk, Tuz Khurmato and Tal Afar, and a Kurdish fundamentalist preacher was killed in largely Sunni Arab Mosul. Underneath these details, you can see the slow war for control of Baghdad between Shiite Arab and Sunni Arab guerrillas unfold, with the US forces largely irrelevant to it (the Shiites are winning the capital). You can see Sunni-Shiite or Sunni-Sunni violence an hour and a half northeast of the capital in Diyala province. Then in the north the ethnic battle for Kirkuk and its hinterlands continues. You can see ethnic and political violence in the north, with Kurds killed in four cities, probably by guerrillas of other ethnicities. Details:

' MUQDADIYA - Suspected al Qaeda in Iraq militants killed 14 people and wounded seven in the predominantly Sunni Arab town of Muqdadiya [Diyala Province], 90 km (50 miles) north of Baghdad, police said. . .

BAQUBA - Gunmen hijacked an ambulance carrying eight people in the city of Baquba [Diyala], 65 km (40 miles) north[east] of Baghdad, police said. . .

BAGHDAD - Twelve bodies were found in various parts of Baghdad in the past 24 hours, police said. . .

BAGHDAD - A car bomb killed five people and wounded six in Mansour district in western Baghdad, police said. A separate roadside bomb killed one person and wounded two, also in Mansour, police said. .

BAGHDAD - A roadside bomb killed one person and wounded three in al-Harthiya district of western Baghdad, police said.

BAGHDAD - Gunmen killed a member of the Municipality of Bayaa district of southern Baghdad, police said.

BAGHDAD - Gunmen killed a member of the Municipality of Doura district of southern Baghdad, a hospital source said. . .

BAGHDAD - A roadside bomb killed one person and wounded two near al-Shaab National Stadium in central Baghdad, police said. . . .

KIRKUK - A roadside bomb exploded near the convoy of a member of the Kurdistan Democratic Party (PDK), wounding a guard and a pedestrian in the city of Kirkuk, police said. . .

MOSUL - A Sunni mosque preacher who belonged to the Kurdish Islamic Union was shot dead in northwestern Mosul, 390 km (240 miles) north of Baghdad, police said.

[Tal Afar] - At least two policemen were wounded by a roadside bomb in the centre of the town of Tal Afar, 420 km (260 miles) northwest of Baghdad, police said.

SAMARRA - Several mortar rounds landed in a residential district, killing two people, including a child, and wounded four on Saturday night in the city of Samarra, 100 km (60 miles) north of Baghdad, police said. . .

NEAR HILLA - Shi'ite militias attacked a Shi'ite tribe, killing two men and wounding three in a town near the city of Hilla, 100 km (60 miles) south of Baghdad, police said. . .

At the Global Affairs group blog: Farideh Farhi on willingness to compromise on Iran's part and Gershon Shafir on Israeli PM Olmert's unwillingness to compromise and Mahmoud Abbas's fatal weakness.

At the Napoleon's Egypt blog: an account of the naval defeat inflicted on the French by the British.Labels: Iraq

posted by Juan Cole @ 9/17/2007 06:16:00 AM

Washington Accuses and Threatens, Tehran Reacts
Threat and accusations against Iran have been so common that for long-standing Iran observers like me it is a bit difficult to get all riled up over them. But even according to Iran standards, this has been an intense couple of weeks. The Petraeus/ Crocker show was full of references to the "unhelpful" and even "malign" role played by Iran in Iraq, and, presumably running out of other reasons that sound convincing, the need to contain Iran seems to have emerged as the major (and latest) reason for the continued American presence in Iraq. In the words of George Bush, "Iran would benefit from the chaos and would be encouraged in its efforts to gain nuclear weapons and dominate the region."

Stories abound too that the Bush administration is seriously considering military strikes against Iran; stories I might add that, according to the New York Times report by Helen Cooper, "the Bush administration officials have pointedly not tried to stem." Even an Israeli air strike in Syria last week led to speculation that Israel, in alliance with the United States, was really trying to send a message to Iran that it could strike Iranian nuclear facilities if it chose to, leading George Perkovich of the vice president for studies at the Carnegie Endowment for International Peace, to say, "If I were the Iranians, what I'd be freaked out about is that the other Arab states didn't protest. The Arab world non-reaction is a signal to Iran that Arabs aren't happy with Iran's power and influence, so if the Israelis want to go and intimidate and violate the airspace of another Arab state that's an ally of Iran, the other Arab states aren't going to do anything."

Freaking out may be what George Perkovich and many others would like the Iranian leadership to be doing in the hope that the fear of a military attack will convince them to back down on the nuclear issue. But a reading of the Iranian press suggests anything but freaking out. In fact, I have found it quite interesting that various leaders in Iran have not only publicly reacted to what is going on in Washington swiftly but also, despite clear disagreements on a variety of other issues, rather calmly and in unison.

The gist of the message coming out of Iran is the following:

1. Iran is making serious efforts to resolve its issues with the international community and, more importantly, if it is allowed with the US.

2. Regarding the nuclear issue, this means an agreement to resolve the outstanding issues regarding Iran's past activities and, upon their resolution through an IAEA-directed process, to maintain a sufficiently intrusive and IAEA-acceptable inspection regime allowing the IAEA to continue to verify that no nuclear material has been diverted to a weapons program.

3. Regarding Iraq, this means offer of help to improve the security situation, in addition to the continuous economic and political support Iran has given every government of Iraq since the American invasion. According to Ali Larijani, Iran's chief nuclear negotiatior, "Iran does not want a speedy withdrawal of the Amercian forces. They have to devise a time table with Nuri al-Maliki's government. No matter what Iraq is an occupied country and this is a heavy burden for the people of Iraq and the United States must figure out a way to resolve this issue and we are ready for any help."

4. But Iran is making these efforts, and sending all sorts of messages regarding the need to talk and reach a compromise on a variety of issues that concern both countries, understanding very well that the Bush administration may be in no mood for talks or compromise as it tries to find a scapegoat for its failures in the Middle East. Again, in the words of Ali Larijani, "Iran is an important county with which [the Americans] can have constructive interaction. In my view, because of the problems they are faced with in Iraq, Lebanon, Palestine, and Afghanistan, the Americans are suffering from strategic incoherence."

5. The awareness of this "strategic incoherence" or perhaps worries about the actions of what the former president Ali Akbar Hashemi Rafsanjani says may be a "wounded tiger," has also meant that Iran is preparing itself for the possibility of direct military attacks by the United States. In the words of the new head of IRGC, Mohammad Ali (Aziz) Jafari, "The enemies have intensified the tune of threats but they should know that… Sepah, in addition to high capability in military dimensions, has informational superiority over the enemies and high missile capabilities which are of great defensive help… Asymmetrical warfare is a kind of war that we utilized during the sacred defense since during the imposed war there were great inequalities between us and the enemy. But the inequality was not to the extent that we can call the battles of sacred defense asymmetrical war. But since the material and technological capabilities of [the current] enemy is higher relative to us, we need to move in the direction of appropriate policies and defensive approaches, the example of which is asymmetrical war. An objective example of this type of war can be seen in the 33-day Lebanon war."

In short, from the Iranian perspective the issue at hand seems to be how to capitalize on the American foreign policy disaster in Iraq in ways that would lead to the American acceptance of the Islamic Republic "as is" and also a a significant and worthy player in the region while simultaneously pursuing policies that would best neutralize the possibility of American attack and increased pressures against Iran.

Just to give a flavor of the Iranian mindset, this is what Ali Larijani said on September 6:

The current conditions are very sensitive. We have to assess these conditions correctly and know their point of focus. The current conditions are valued as much by us as the victory of the Americans for global management and unilateralism is valued by them.

Speaking to the Assembly of Experts, this is what Larijani said on September 4,

In the past two months both the framework for the resolution of issues with the Agency has been devised and, with the initiative of a European country, a preliminary plan for political understanding in the nuclear negotiations was prepared. Under these conditions Iran has shown its goodwill for the resolution of the nuclear issue and the realization of the commitment of the opposing party means paving the way for the natural progression of the dossier in the Agency. This message needs a hearing ear. If America wants a dialogue of the deaf, a non-hearing status is [something that] all can achieve.

It is noteworthy that references to "deaf/non-hearing" or "irrational" Americans are now commonly used by Iranian officials. On August 31st, Mahmoud Ahmadinejad said,

Their behavior has become childish. They are unable to solve any of the problems of the Middle East because the have a wrong point of view. Wait for a few months and under pressure the government of Iraq will also face failure. I guess then they will say that we want to dismiss the people of Iraq! Anyone who wants to give them advice, [is seen] as wanting to push them further into quagmire. I am surprised why they do not understand….. Is there no reason in their government? Are their advisors self-interested or ignorant?

On September 9, Larijani gives further clues about the extent to which Tehran feels it has extended its hand in trying to find a resolution to the problem:

Iran has taken a positive step based on good will. …The nuclear discussion regarding Iran over which they maneuvered a lot was that Iran had problems in the past which it did not clarify and secondly that the speed with which Iran was pursuing enrichment did not allow for inspections. [With the new understanding with Solana] we have resolved both of these problems… I previously told Solana and ElBaradei that we will take a positive step and in return you have to clarify the atmosphere. It is not supposed to be [a situation in which] one smiles and the other frowns… This is a test for us. We have taken an important step and if the behavior of the other side is not appropriate we will behave in a different way.

Then, regarding the possibility of a third sanctions resolution and military action, Larijani goes on to say,

Rationally we have to take into account all possibilities…..If the Americans welcome military confrontation then this will be the last nail on the coffin of neoconservatives. This is not a region from which they can reap attractive takeaways… [Increased military threats] are nothing new and in the past few years they have their highs and lows. The situation in Iraq has shaped conditions for them in such a way they are forced to talk this way in order to save face. These dreadful roars are more like a flight trumpet than a call for action. We cannot prevent anyone from speaking. We do not consider such an action rational but if they did it we will give commensurate response. Their act will be harmful for the whole region.

The message that the current Iranian leadership seems to be giving the United States is that, having tried and failed to use other countries as buffer to resolve the nuclear issue and counter the American antagonism towards the existence of the Islamic republic, they are now using the direct and I think a much riskier strategy of looking "eye to eye."

By attempting to decouple the issue of enrichment and outstanding issues and agreeing to work on the latter with the IAEA, Iran is also signaling that it is able and willing to devise strategies intended to limit the damage the United States can cause.

Ironically, the case for what I think should be considered a "moderated" hard-line position was best made on September 7th by Ali Akbar Hashemi Rafsanjani, now the head of both Expediency Council and Council of Experts and a man who is perhaps the best symbol of Islamic Iran's determination to survive and thrive under the most difficult of circumstances: I say ironically because Hashemi Rafsanjani is often described as the leader of the moderate/pragmatic wing of Iran's foreign policy establishment:

The nuclear issue is still a very important issue. This oppressive dossier through which resolutions have been issued at the Agency and Security Council against the aggrieved Iran is still very important… Recently the Agency – of course if it really has good will – has begun an appropriate move … of course even in this act it is not yet clear what they are after. It is not acceptable by the United States, France, and many other Western country and they say ElBaradei should not have done this and we should go the route of Security Council. I tell them, do not repeat your mistakes so much. …Learn from the acts you committed in the world after September 11…They invaded a few countries in the name of the idea of axis of evil and in the name of terrorism….and in their minds surrounded Iran. Of course it became clear that they are not capable of taking care of countries such as Afghanistan and began to rely on NATO, of course giving a bad name to NATO too… The plan for the Greater Middle East has failed. The besieging of Iran has had the opposite result and today the United States is besieged, asking help from us… From this tribune I warn those sitting in the White House and members of Congress and tell them to let go of in your heads this way of confronting Islam, Muslims and Islamic revolutionary forces. If there is a way, it is only the path of talks which God willing is still open. Of course we ourselves should also give attention and when we are faced with a wounded tiger we have to be vigilant and face this big issue of the region and the world with reason, vigilance, and poise.

Hashemi Rafsanjani's words, given on the occasion of his election as the head of the Assembly of Experts, seems to be a signal that the Iranian leadership has mustered the political will to offer yet another compromise; a compromise that can be build on what Iran considers to be certain shared regional interests with the United States but must allow Iran to come out of the confrontation with the US in ways that are acceptable within the broad outlines of Iran's contentious politics.

But, watching its messages and hints go "unheard" by the "deaf," the Iranian leadership is rational enough to realize that those terms may not be acceptable to the Bush administration; hence the Iranian messages that preparation have been under way for the kind of fight it feels it might have to fight but certainly prefers not to.

Posted by Farideh Farhi