The outbreak of fighting between Russia and the former Soviet republic of Georgia was sudden but not surprising. Conflict has been brewing between Moscow and its tiny, pro-Western neighbor for months. The flashpoints are two breakaway Georgian provinces, Abkhazia and South Ossetia -- the latter being the scene of the latest fighting. The skirmishing and shelling around Georgian villages that prompted Georgian President Mikheil Saakashvili to launch an offensive against the South Ossetian capital, Tskhinvali, may or may not have been a deliberate Russian provocation, to which Russia's tank and air assault was the inevitable follow-up. Russian military probes, always denied b y Moscow, have been frequent in recent years. But certainly the deeper source of tension between the two countries is Russia's insistence on maintaining hegemony in the Caucasus. Georgia's democratically elected government has accepted US military and economic aid, supported the mission in Iraq and pursued NATO membership. Moscow will not tolerate such independence - even by a relatively poor country of just 4.6 million people.Georgia on the Brink - The Times editorial
Yesterday morning Mikhail Saakhashvili, the Georgian President, gave warning that, if reports of Russian armour entering his country were true, it would mean war. They were true. Tanks were crossing the international border from Russia into the breakaway Georgian province of South Ossietia as Mr Saakashvili spoke. He also promised a brief ceasefire to allow the evacuation of wounded civilians. Such ceasefires may come and go. The war may remain officially undeclared. But Russia and its most fervently pro-Western neighbour are now locked in open military conflict.War in the Caucasus - Wall Street Journal editorial
"War has started," Vladimir Putin said yesterday as Georgian and Russian forces fought over the breakaway Georgian region of South Ossetia. War is certainly what the two countries have seemed to want for some time, and the chances of avoiding a drawn-out conflict now are slim. It's unclear at this stage which side is more at fault for the current fighting. Georgia says it moved on the South Ossetian city of Tskhinvali yesterday after rebels there broke a cease-fire. But President Mikheil Saakashvili has long pledged to retake South Ossetia and another separatist area, Abkhazia, and may have underestimated Moscow's reaction. Within hours, Russian tanks crossed the border to bolster Russian "peacekeepers" who have been stirring up trouble in the two regions. Georgia says Russian airplanes bombed Tskhinvali, reversing some Georgian army gains there, as well as air fields in nonseparatist areas. The Georgian air force claims to have shot down at least five Russian planes. The biggest question now is whether Moscow will simply try to restore the previous status quo in South Ossetia - with Russia and the rebels controlling most of the territory - or go further and crush Georgia while deposing Mr. Saakashvili.The Bear Lashes Out - New York Post editorial
Both attacks probably were timed to coincide with the Summer Olympics in Beijing, whose lavish opening ceremonies yesterday diverted the world's attention. Tempting though it might be to dismiss the dispute as a purely regional affair, the fighting has the potential for grave international repercussions. The Caucasus region is a significant conduit of oil taken from the Caspian Sea - and any disruption of the oil flow almost certainly would halt the welcome recent fall in crude prices. That, in turn, could reverse the recent drop in prices at the gas pumps. Indeed, the signs are ominous: Russia yesterday charged that Georgia is undertaking "ethnic cleansing" in South Ossetia - a claim that Moscow could well use as a justification for a wider invasion. Georgia, in turn, is appealing for help from Washington - which yesterday stressed its support for "Georgia's territorial integrity."War Erupts in Georgia - The Economist
On its own, South Ossetia is unlikely to last long. It is a tiny territory run by Russia’s security forces and a small and nasty clique of local thugs who live off smuggling goods and pocketing Russian aid money. According to a Georgian television channel, some 70% of Tskhinvali had been taken by government forces by the end of Friday morning. It appears that Russia will get heavily involved - Russia's president, Dmitry Medvedev, says that he must protect Russian citizens there. The conflict could now quickly spiral into a war between Russian and Georgia, and engulf Abkhazia, a separatist region on the Black Sea coast in which Russia has much more strategic interest.S. Ossetia Bitterness Turns to Conflict - Steven Eke, BBC News
As heavy clashes are reported in South Ossetia, Russia and Georgia have swapped increasingly angry accusations. Georgia's President Mikhail Saakashvili has called upon his country to "mobilise" in the face of "a very blunt Russian aggression". Russian Foreign Minister Sergei Lavrov said Moscow had reports of "ethnic cleansing" in villages. Russian tanks have reportedly moved towards the capital of the region, which has been under heavy bombardment from Georgian forces. South Ossetia is a territory one-and-a-half times that of Luxembourg, with an estimated population of some 70,000 people. It is legally part of Georgia, since its self-proclaimed independence has been recognised by no other state, including Russia. Yet its people and their separatist leaders do not want to be part of the Georgian state, in any shape or form.Georgia's Fait Accompli Failed - Matthew Clements, The Times
Georgia’s main aim in its offensive in South Ossetia appears to have been a swift advance on the separatist capital Tskhinvali to seize Ossetian territory and achieve a fait accompli before Russia is able to respond. The timing may have been chosen to coincide with Vladimir Putin’s visit to Beijing for the Olympic Opening Ceremony. Given Mr Putin’s significant role in Russian foreign policy, Georgia may have hoped that his absence would slow down any Russian response. In the fighting so far, Georgia has used its superiority in artillery and air power to drive the poorly equipped Ossetian forces from villages near Tskhinvali. This has allowed it to surround the city and, barring a short ceasefire so civilians can withdraw, continue its assault.Georgia Power Play, and Big Gamble - Jim Heintz, Associated Press
Behind the hostilities in South Ossetia are two nations that have long been spoiling for a fight, with Russia eager to show it's boss in the region and US-backed Georgia determined to prove it can stand up to its huge neighbor. With Vladimir Putin in Beijing for the Olympic opening ceremony and the world's attention fixed on China, Georgia may have been betting it could pounce on an opportunity to quickly wrest control of its breakaway province. But the gamble may backfire: Washington hasn't endorsed Georgia's power play, and Moscow's counteroffensive has brought the two sides into a fight it will be hard for Georgia, a former Soviet state, to win. The conflict has great strategic importance because it pits one of Washington's staunchest allies in the war on terror against Russia, a re-emerging superpower with vast energy reserves that is showing growing eagerness to assert its will on the international stage.Failed Gamble on Russia Not Fighting - O'Flynn and Fletcher, The Times
It looks, in retrospect, like a ruse that went badly wrong. After days of heavy skirmishing between Georgian troops and Russian-backed separatist militias in the breakaway republic of South Ossetia, Mikhail Saakashvili, the Georgian President, went on television on Thursday evening to announce that he had ordered an immediate unilateral ceasefire. Just hours later his troops began an all-out offensive with tanks and rockets to “restore constitutional order” to a region that won de facto independence in a vicious civil war that subsided in 1992. From that moment events began to spiral out of control.Taunting the Bear - James Traub, New York Times
The hostilities between Russia and Georgia that erupted on Friday over the breakaway province of South Ossetia look, in retrospect, almost absurdly over-determined. For years, the Russians have claimed that Georgia’s president, Mikheil Saakashvili, has been preparing to retake the disputed regions of South Ossetia and Abkhazia, and have warned that they would use force to block such a bid. Mr. Saakashvili, for his part, describes today’s Russia as a belligerent power ruthlessly pressing at its borders, implacably hostile to democratic neighbors like Georgia and Ukraine. He has thrown in his lot with the West, and has campaigned ardently for membership in NATO. Vladimir V. Putin, Russia’s former president and current prime minister, has said Russia could never accept a NATO presence in the Caucasus.Why this Conflict Matters to the West - Richard Beeston, The Times
It would be a serious mistake for the international community to regard the dramatic escalation of violence in Georgia as just another flare-up in the Caucasus. The names of the flashpoints may be unfamiliar, the territory remote and the dispute parochial, but the battle under way will have important repercussions beyond the region. The outcome of the struggle will determine the course of Russia’s relations with its neighbours, will shape Dmitri Medvedev’s presidency, could alter the relationship between the Kremlin and the West and crucially could decide the fate of Caspian basin energy supplies. Quite what triggered the Georgian offensive, on the day that the world was supposed to gather in peace for the start of the Beijing Olympics, is not yet clear.Raping Georgia - Ralph Peters, New York Post
As I write, Russian tanks grind into a brave and isolated democratic state. Assuming that the world's attention would focus on Beijing, Moscow stage-managed an elaborate act of aggression against Georgia. But the world has changed since Soviet tanks rolled unchallenged into Afghanistan at Christmastime 29 years ago. Global communications now spotlight aggression instantly. Yesterday, the world didn't watch the Olympic opening ceremonies (the Chinese must be furious at the Russians). Instead, we saw images of Soviet - sorry, I meant Russian - aircraft pounding Georgian territory as Russian armor rolled over the Caucasus Mountains. The Kremlin is determined to break Georgia's will - and keep the feisty republic out of NATO.How Georgia Fell into its Enemies' Trap - Edward Lucas, The Times
When is a victory not a victory? When it dents your country's image, scares your allies and gets you into an unwinnable war with a hugely stronger opponent. That is the bleak outlook for Georgia this weekend, after what initially looked like a quick military win against the separatist regime in South Ossetia. Georgia's attack followed weeks of escalating provocations, including hours of heavy shelling by the Russian-backed breakaway province and signs of large-scale Russian reinforcement. Thanks to American military aid, Georgia's 18,000-strong armed forces are the best-trained and equipped fighting force in the Caucasus. But it is one thing for them to defeat the raggle-taggle militia of a tinpot place like South Ossetia (population 70,000). It is another for a country of less than five million people to take on Russia (population 142 million). Now the Kremlin is reacting strongly.World's Rising Powers Strut Their Stuff - Anne Applebaum, Washington Post
For the best possible illustration of why Islamic terrorism may one day be considered the least of our problems, look no further than the BBC's split-screen coverage of Friday's Olympic Opening ceremonies. On one side, fireworks sparkled and thousands of exotically dressed Chinese dancers bent their bodies into the shape of doves, the cosmos and so on. On the other side, grey Russian tanks were shown rolling into South Ossetia, a rebel province of Georgia. The effect was striking: Two of the world's rising powers were strutting their stuff. The difference, of course, is that one event has been rehearsed for years, while the other, if not a total surprise, was not actually scheduled to take place this week. And that, too, is significant: The Chinese challenge to Western power has been a long time coming, and it is in a certain sense predictable. As a rule, the Chinese do not make sudden moves and do not try to provoke crises. Russia, by contrast, is an unpredictable power, which makes responding to Moscow more difficult. In fact, Russian politics have become so utterly opaque that it is not easy to say why this particular "frozen" conflict has escalated now. Russian sources said yesterday that Georgia had launched an invasion of South Ossetia, aiming to pacify the breakaway region. Georgia, meanwhile, said that its troops entered the South Ossetian "capital" in response to escalating attacks, which have been intensifying for a week -- and have been taking place for years, really -- as well as the Russian aerial bombardment of Georgian territory.
The Georgian push into the breakaway region of South Ossetia was not intended to hold it, but to destroy it, ending secession by liquidating its people. The Russian response has put a halt to that, and then some. If a ceasefire follows soon, Georgians and Russians might be able to agree that the unpopular President Mikheil Saakashvili bears responsibility for the war. This will place the United States and France at severe odds. - John Helmer 
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ANDREW BACEVICH