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<h3 class="sub-section">Editorials</h3> <h3 class="sub-section">Research and Analysis</h3>
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Pakistan Invades America --
"Without Permission"


By M. Junaid Levesque-Alam

American papers reported that under the new policy, the Pakistani military will no longer seek America's permission in killing Americans, but will inform American diplomats about these killings as a friendly gesture between close allies. Continue

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The American War Moves to Pakistan

Bush's War Widens Dangerously

By Tariq Ali

Why, has the U.S. decided to destabilize a crucial ally? Within Pakistan, some analysts argue that this is a carefully coordinated move to weaken the Pakistani state yet further by creating a crisis that extends way beyond the badlands on the frontier with Afghanistan. Continue

Washington Is Risking War with Pakistan

By Robert Baer

As Wall Street collapsed with a bang, almost no one noticed that we're on the brink of war with Pakistan. And, unfortunately, that's not too much of an exaggeration. Continue

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Bush Could Still Attack Iran

By Stefan Simanowitz

The US is massing the largest armada of warships in the Gulf since 2003. Two aircraft carrier task forces are already there and a third was dispatched on August 22. French and British warships and carrier groups are also reportedly on their way. Continue

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From Irgun to AIPAC:

Israel Lobby’s US Treasury Follies Hurt

By Grant F. Smith

According to the Jerusalem Post, the US Department of Treasury’s new Terrorism and Financial Intelligence (TFI) unit is going after the Islamic Republic of Iran Shipping Lines. - Trade with Iran and the rest of the Middle East is based on real comparative advantages. US workers, many facing home foreclosures due to junk mortgages, will be the unknowing victims of the latest US Treasury gambit. Continue

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Military Industrial Complex 2.0

Cubicle Mercenaries, Subcontracting Warriors, and Other Phenomena of a Privatizing Pentagon

By Frida Berrigan

In fiscal year 2005 (the last year for which full data is available), the Pentagon spent more contracting for services with private companies than on supplies and equipment -- including major weapons systems. Continue

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America Needs a Shadow Government

By Timothy V. Gatto

During the past two terms of this Presidency we have learned in-depth about signing statements, the “Unitary Presidency”, numerous Executive Orders that remain secret from the Congress, extraordinary “rendition”, and torture to include inflicting injuries on another human being “to the point of, but not exceeding organ failure”. We know of places such as Abu Graib, and Guantanamo and watched as our Army dropped white Phosphorus on innocent civilians in a city called Fallujah. Continue

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China threat? It's a blessing
China has not tried to manage its security among the motley collection of 21 states and territories that surround it, concentrating on butter before guns while pursuing its own economic buildup. In turn, the strong United States presence in the region, notably in Japan and South Korea, saves other Asian countries from worrying about managing China's growth. China's "threat" then is a positive; it is the reason for the peaceful development of the Asia-Pacific region. - Francesco Sisci (Sep 18, '08)

China, India resume Himalayan dance
After a year-long hiatus, and more than a quarter of a century of unfruitful discussions, border negotiations between India and China resume this week. The issue remains the "most important" in China-India ties and even booming trade cannot reduce its impact. - Pallavi Aiyar (Sep 18, '08)

Vested interests drive US's Pakistan policy
The George W Bush administration's decision to step up military operations inside Pakistan was more about institutional interests than strategy. The escalation ignores the fact that commando raids and missile strikes will not weaken the Taliban or al-Qaeda, and will certainly provoke reactions that could tilt the population further toward Islamic radicals. - Gareth Porter (Sep 18, '08)

Muqtada reinvents himself
Iraqi Shi'ite leader Muqtada al-Sadr has reorganized his militia, the Mahdi Army, into a "cultural and religious force". The move follows heavy pressure from Iran, which is trying to diminish Muqtada's influence in a way that will strengthen the Nuri al-Maliki government. Yet the transformation of the militia and Muqtada's deeper involvement in the clerical establishment is more likely to enhance his popularity and legitimacy as a political leader. (Sep 18, '08)

Vietnam weaves between US and China
Vietnamese Prime Minister Nguyen Tan Dung's visit to the United States was a signal that Vietnam now considers its old enemy to be a crucial partner on its path to development. By focusing on economic priorities, and forestalling the US's strategic advances, Hanoi has avoided provoking another former foe - China. - Anh Tran (Sep 18, '08)

Tinsel politics return in India
The birth of superstar-turned-politician Chiranjeevi's party has revived the trend of Bollywood icons taking center stage in Indian politics. His charismatic presence is expected to draw youngsters to polling booths, even though he lacks political experience and offers a vague platform. The implications do not bode well for the theory and practice of democracy. - Sreeram Chaulia (Sep 18, '08)

Japan gains in transition
Healthy competition to replace Prime Minister Yasuo Fukuda shows Japan is not in turmoil or in danger of entering a political vacuum. Indeed, the country is evolving as a vibrant democracy, with its weakened ruling party facing one of its few real challenges in more than 50 years. (Sep 18, '08)
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Chairman Lieberman’s “War on Terror”
By Chip Berlet | September 17, 2008
Sen. Joe Lieberman, the Independent Democrat from Connecticut and vigorous supporter of neoconservative-led advocacy efforts to push an expansive “war on terror” in the Middle East, has used his perch as chairman of the Senate Committee on Homeland Security to push hardline counterterrorism policies that undermine First Amendment rights for dissidents across the political spectrum—and could have potentially far-reaching implications for how the United States prosecutes the “war on terror.”
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Engaging Pakistan
Pakistan's newly elected president, Asif Ali Zardari, faces daunting challenges governing Pakistan that will impact the United States' efforts to neutralize the growing Taliban threat along its border with Afghanistan. Ashley J. Tellis stresses the necessity for U.S. policy to support rebalanced civil-military relations in Pakistan without alienating military leaders. | MORE >
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Steve Clemons: Previously Unknown Hagel Letter Warns Rice of Russia Collision In February 2008, Senator Chuck Hagel wrote to Secretary of State Condoleezza Rice, copied to Defense Secretary Robert Gates and National Security Advisor Stephen Hadley, warning that our policies with Kosovo, Serbia, and elsewhere in Europe could be brewing up a storm with Russia.

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All change in the US's Afghan mission
The United States admits it needs to speed up progress in Afghanistan, which in the past seven years has accounted for a hefty chunk of the US$752 billion bill for the "war on terror". US military forays into Pakistan are one aspect of a "new strategy" that could see Americans taking direct control of counter-insurgency activities. More troops and more resources have also been demanded, even as the Taliban consolidate their positions around Kabul. - Syed Saleem Shahzad (Sep 19, '08)

Islamabad rides a terror tiger
The cost of success in hiding Pakistan's hand in terror operations in India is Islamabad's growing lack of control over the targets, scale and pace of attacks by its Islamist and criminal allies in that country. This is a new and very dangerous level of unpredictability. - Michael Scheuer (Sep 19, '08)

Iran plays the mediator
"Rogue state" Iran has embarked on a whirlwind of diplomacy across the Caucuses and troubled Central Asia. Tehran's momentum as a "main pillar of regional stability" is partly due to fears that regional tensions could affect its national security interests, and its determination to counter attempts to form a "Caucasus alliance" which would exclude it. - Kaveh L Afrasiabi (Sep 19, '08)

Ahmadinejad sets pulses racing
Many Iranians dread the prospect of President Mahmud Ahmadinejad again trotting out virulent anti-Israel rhetoric at the United Nations next week, preferring he use the platform to build bridges with the United States. Others relish the opportunity to give Ahmadinejad a special New York welcome. (Sep 19, '08)

Anwar throws down the gauntlet
Malaysia's opposition leader Anwar Ibrahim is demanding that Prime Minister Abdullah Badawi's administration subject itself to a confidence vote in parliament by Tuesday, claiming he has enough reformist lawmakers to topple the government. Abdullah has dismissed the challenge, and a major crackdown could follow. (Sep 19, '08)

The saga of the rebel princess
A 30-episode television series about the life of Princess Amal al-Atrash, better known by her stage name Asmahan, has been banned in her native Syria. But audiences in Saudi Arabia and Lebanon are transfixed by the unfolding saga of the Druze princess who rebelled against society and marriage to become one of the 20th century's most colorful, controversial and inspiring Arab women. - Sami Moubayed (Sep 19, '08)
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US at a turning point
The United States is in the middle of a national disaster that has moved well beyond a subprime crisis to one in which the position of the economy is in jeopardy and its way of economic life - tied fundamentally to the availability of cheap credit - is imperiled. - Max Fraad Wolff

The end of a gilded age
The United States government is staring into an abyss as the financial system collapses. Instead of dithering, it must direct investment capital out of speculative paper deals into productive channels matching society's material needs. For now, the rest of us have ringside seats, far too close to the action for comfort, as a gilded age ends.- Steve Fraser
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SPEAKING FREELY
Oil market collapse waiting to happen
An estimated US$260 billion was recently invested in oil markets, superimposed as an inverted pyramid of risk on a relatively tiny base, worth about $4 billion, of physical crude oil. The risk of market failure is considerable, and there is little that regulators can do. - Chris Cook (Sep 18, '08)

Gold: Why Asia was spot on
As the carnage on Wall Street intensified, the flight to safety this week started across the Pacific in the gold markets of Sydney and Hong Kong on Tuesday, before the gold price rocketed in the US market on Wednesday morning. Investors trying to spot a gold trend early would have been well served looking at the spot price in Asia, rather than waiting for guidance from New York. - R M Cutler (Sep 18, '08)

Vested interests drive US's Pakistan policy
The George W Bush administration's decision to step up military operations inside Pakistan was more about institutional interests than strategy. The escalation ignores the fact that commando raids and missile strikes will not weaken the Taliban or al-Qaeda, and will certainly provoke reactions that could tilt the population further toward Islamic radicals. - Gareth Porter (Sep 18, '08)

China, India resume Himalayan dance
After a year-long hiatus, and more than a quarter of a century of unfruitful discussions, border negotiations between India and China resume this week. The issue remains the "most important" in China-India ties and even booming trade cannot reduce its impact. - Pallavi Aiyar (Sep 18, '08)

Vietnam weaves between US and China

Vietnamese Prime Minister Nguyen Tan Dung's visit to the United States was a signal that Vietnam now considers its old enemy to be a crucial partner on its path to development. By focusing on economic priorities, and forestalling the US's strategic advances, Hanoi has avoided provoking another former foe - China. - Anh Tran (Sep 18, '08)

China's imploding US ally
AIG, one of the few US companies to be founded in China, grew there under the pathfinding leadership of Maurice R Greenberg, who came to be a key player in developing personal and political ties between the two countries. Now Greenberg looks on from the sidelines and scared Chinese AIG customers dump their personal policies. - Richard Komaiko and Chris Stewart (Sep 17, '08)
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CHAN AKYA
Waiter, there's a banker
in my soup

The Fed's timely courage at avoiding a Lehman bailout and pushing through an AIG takeover, allied with a decision to hold interest rates steady, may yet be seen as the steps that helped to stem the US's financial crisis. It certainly doesn't feel like a turning point, but that is the way emotions differ from fundamentals. (Sep 17, '08)

US pushes Pakistan towards the brink
The George W Bush administration's decision to widen its Afghan war into Pakistan - striking repeatedly in the "badlands" on the Afghan border - is a perilous undertaking. For Pakistan, there could be a catastrophic crisis within the army - already it has fired its first warning shots at American troops - and even a disintegration of the state. But maybe this is the plan. - Tariq Ali (Sep 17, '08)

ASIA HAND
A low expectation
premier for Thailand

The elevation of Somchai Wongsawat, former prime minister Thaksin Shinawatra's brother-in-law, to the premiership points to the growing weakness of the ruling People's Power Party and intra-party splits. With little political experience or influence, Somchai's tenure may be short-lived and Thailand's political troubles far from over. - Shawn W Crispin (Sep 17, '08)

A peek at Obama's Middle East vision
War with Iran will be avoided at all costs if the US is led by Barack Obama, says the Democratic presidential nominee's senior foreign policy advisor, Susan Rice. As a former assistant secretary of state for African affairs under president Bill Clinton, Rice has a grand vision for strengthening security in Iraq and the greater Middle East. (Sep 17, '08)

Jackie Chan takes on Timor's karate kids
Troubled East Timor has gained a nasty reputation for its martial arts gangs and graphic images of its young, drug-crazed kung fu masters are not easily forgotten. But when the gangs began to be linked to political riots and mass violence, something had to be done. The answer: bring in the legendary Jackie Chan for a face-off. (Sep 17, '08)

Crisis curdles China's booming dairy market
The biggest names in China's newly born dairy sector are reeling from a national crisis over chemically tainted baby milk that has left three infants dead and thousands hospitalized. One of the US$19 billion sector's biggest players, the partially New Zealand-owned Sanlu Group, is scrambling to recall products and fend off allegations that it covered up the scandal for months. - Kent Ewing (Sep 17, '08)

Big-bang report blasts Iran
The International Atomic Energy Agency's "serious concerns" and "outstanding questions" about Iran's nuclear program open the door for more sanctions against Tehran, or worse, a strike against its nuclear infrastructure. Lost in the scramble to condemn Iran is the fact that the agency has on previous occasions deemed these issues resolved, and even in its latest report ruled out any military diversion at Iran's facilities. - Kaveh L Afrasiabi (Sep 16, '08)
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<h3 class="sub-section">Editorials</h3> <h3 class="sub-section">Research and Analysis</h3>
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Chinese Banks Go Global: How Will Foreign Regulators Respond?

  • Chinese financial institutions like CDB, ICBC, Mingsheng Bank and insurance companies like Ping An are increasing overseas acquisitions taking stakes in Barclays, Standard Bank, Fortis and others. Chinese banks remain flush with cash following IPOs, bond issues, are eyeing foreign purchases to increase their expertise of investment banking, market share but may be wary of investing in global banks given losses from previous investments. They may now be seeking out M&A opportunities that are joint ventures
  • First round of Chinese bank M&A took place in mid-90s to 2005, and was focused on greater China. Since 2006, outward M&A has involved bigger deals and a broader range of target countries (Boston Consulting Group)
Click Here For Full Analysis

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Thirty Years of Peacemaking by Rami G. Khouri
Thirty years is a long time, and time enough to learn some useful lessons in the business of negotiating peace.
more...

Still Qadhafi After All These Years by Patrick Seale
For thirty-nine years, Colonel Muammar al-Qadhafi has ruled Libya. Now, rehabilitated by Western nations -- and oil corporations -- he has brought Libya back from pariah status. But has the Colonel himself changed?
more...

Why Has Al-Qaeda Lasted 20 Years? by Rami G. Khouri
Any militant movement that endures for 20 years and spurs dozens of smaller clones is not only a consequence of its own organizational prowess. It reflects the persistence of enabling conditions that breed militants and militancy.
more...

It’s All about Face by Peter Kwong and Dusanka Miscevic
As the Paralympics Games end in China this week, the seven year-long public relations campaign to the world comes to an end. Deemed an extraordinary success by the world, now the leaders face their domestic critics.
more...

The New World Geopolitical Order: End of Act I by Immanuel Wallerstein
Ignored in Georgia and under attack by its closest allies in Iraq, Afghanistan, and Pakistan, the United States is entering the realities of the post-Cold War world, in which it has to play by new rules.
more...

The Tragic Failure of Arab Moderates by Rami G. Khouri
The “Arab center” has shown little strength and influence -- as it has been “squeezed between George W. Bush and Osama bin Laden. But in its growing influence lies the future of whole and healthy Arab states.
more...

Zardari and Pakistan Face Formidable Problems by Patrick Seale
Perhaps the greatest difficulty for the new President is the same as for the old one: Zardari takes Musharraf’s unpopular place between his citizens and the Bush administration’s demands for its Afghan (and global) war on terror.
more...
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SUN WUKONG
China struggles to cap milk crisis

China's tainted milk crisis is spreading fast, with several countries refusing to accept Chinese dairy exports and the top official of the food safety watchdog forced to resign. Beijing has vowed tough action but such promises have been heard before and come too late for four dead infants and tens of thousands who have fallen ill. - Wu Zhong (Sep 23, '08)

Japanese steamed over tainted-rice scam
Japan's minister of agriculture has resigned over reports that imported rice contaminated with chemicals, pesticides, and carcinogenic mold was bought from the government and distributed to restaurants, hospitals, schools and stores. This is not the first time Japan's rice management has been questioned, and consumers are sticking complaints on the government. (Sep 23, '08)
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Business as usual for US arms sales
It is the season for weapons industry conferences in the United States, and business has never been better. The prize is a slice of the current half-trillion-dollar defense budget. Giants such as Lockheed Martin have their eyes on US$32 billion in contracts, while the Pentagon will offer about $34 billion in weapons to Iraq, Pakistan and Saudi Arabia. (Sep 23, '08)

Call for more balanced security budgets
Instead of throwing money at bolstering its military might, the United States could invest more in international diplomacy and homeland security, a group of experts, including retired generals and admirals, advises. Even Defense Secretary Robert Gates agrees. Canning costly programs to develop fanciful hi-tech weapons would be a start. - Jim Lobe (Sep 23, '08)
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A prisoner in 'pirate alley'
Despite increased attention from French commandos and the US and Indian navies, rocket-toting pirates run wild in the Gulf of Aden. Raking in tens of millions in ransom booty from companies operating ships in the vital oil route off the African coast, the pirates have made the waters their own, one victim tells Raja Murthy. (Sep 23, '08)

KEBABBLE
A pyrotechnical
Ramadan in Turkey

Once marked by the blast of cannons, the daily breaking of the fast during the holy Muslim month of Ramadan is now heralded in Turkey with the whiz and bang of cheap Chinese firecrackers. A growing national obsession with pyrotechnics and easily evaded fire precautions mean the new displays are more risky than the old artillery. - Fazile Zahir (Sep 23, '08)
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Paulson plan
throws oil on fire

US Treasury Secretary Henry Paulson has made the unfolding financial crisis even more dangerous with his plan to create a trust to take on the liabilities of failing institutions. It could ignite the worst inflation in the US and reverse globalization to levels not seen since the Great Depression. - Hossein Askari and Noureddine Krichene

Marriott blast rips further
hole in Pakistan economy

The owner of Islamabad's Marriott has pledged to reopen the hotel, shattered in Saturday's weekend suicide blast, by the end of the year. Pakistan's fast-detiorating economy may take longer to recover from this latest savage blow. - Syed Fazl-e-Haider

The downside fans out
Asia's turbulent markets are establishing a pattern which, once broken, can be followed by a move to the upside from which the charts never look back. Unfortunately, the evidence points to a long wait for that event. - R M Cutler

THE BEAR'S LAIR
The wrong rescues
The US and UK governments have displayed an unerring talent for ignoring history with their most recent bailouts of financial companies. The wrong institutions have been saved and basically solid ones allowed to go to the wall. The consequences include high and unecessary bills for the taxpayer and, further ahead, the movement of financial activity to more competently run locations. - Martin Hutchinson
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New realities in the Strait of Hormuz
The closure of the Strait of Hormuz by mines or blockade has been "a reliable nightmare" for decades. A new analysis suggests Iran could not truly mine the strait, but neither could the United States respond without a great threat to the world economy. - David Isenberg (Sep 22, '08)

COMMENT
US at a turning point
The United States is in the middle of a national disaster that has moved well beyond a subprime crisis to one in which the position of the economy is in jeopardy and its way of economic life - tied fundamentally to the availability of cheap credit - is imperiled. - Max Fraad Wolff (Sep 19, '08)

What a buzz
A momentous week moved towards its conclusion with markets reacting like wasted druggies to the instant buzz of a US$200 billion injection into the global financial system, courtesy central banks. Hong Kong's Hang Seng Index surged nearly 10% on Friday, and even Shanghai snapped back to life as China's government did its bit by scrapping the tax on equity transactions. - R M Cutler (Sep 19, '08)

All change in the US's Afghan mission
The United States admits it needs to speed up progress in Afghanistan, which in the past seven years has accounted for a hefty chunk of the US$752 billion bill for the "war on terror". US military forays into Pakistan are one aspect of a "new strategy" that could see Americans taking direct control of counter-insurgency activities. More troops and more resources have also been demanded, even as the Taliban consolidate their positions around Kabul. - Syed Saleem Shahzad
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Time to Transform NATO - Des Browne & Imre Szekeres, Washington Times
Why Liberal Britain Loves Sarah Palin - Hasan Suroor, The Hindu
Labour Doesn't Trust the Voters - Daniel Finkelstein, Times of London
Israel's Slipping Democracy - Nir Eisikovits, Christian Science Monitor
The Scorching of Georgia - Michael J. Totten
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Tzipi Livni by Rami G. Khouri
Tzipi Livni takes the lead of the Israeli government. She finds herself, ironically, facing a people her father fought 60 years ago, who fight her government for precisely the same reasons. Can she overcome inertia and move the peacemaking process?
more...

Still Qadhafi After All These Years by Patrick Seale
For thirty-nine years, Colonel Muammar al-Qadhafi has ruled Libya. Now, rehabilitated by Western nations -- and oil corporations -- he has brought Libya back from pariah status. But has the Colonel himself changed?
more...

Thirty Years of Peacemaking by Rami G. Khouri
Thirty years is a long time, and time enough to learn some useful lessons in the business of negotiating peace.
more...

It’s All about Face by Peter Kwong and Dusanka Miscevic
As the Paralympics Games end in China this week, the seven year-long public relations campaign to the world comes to an end. Deemed an extraordinary success by the world, now the leaders face their domestic critics.
more...

Why Has Al-Qaeda Lasted 20 Years? by Rami G. Khouri
Any militant movement that endures for 20 years and spurs dozens of smaller clones is not only a consequence of its own organizational prowess. It reflects the persistence of enabling conditions that breed militants and militancy.
more...

The New World Geopolitical Order: End of Act I by Immanuel Wallerstein
Ignored in Georgia and under attack by its closest allies in Iraq, Afghanistan, and Pakistan, the United States is entering the realities of the post-Cold War world, in which it has to play by new rules.
more...

The Tragic Failure of Arab Moderates by Rami G. Khouri
The “Arab center” has shown little strength and influence -- as it has been “squeezed between George W. Bush and Osama bin Laden. But in its growing influence lies the future of whole and healthy Arab states.
more...
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Iran plays up its peacemaker role
In his speech before the United Nations General Assembly, Iranian President Mahmud Ahmadinejad called for free elections in Israel-occupied territories, blasted the West's "bullying" policies and reiterated Tehran's right to nuclear technology. At the same time, blending theology with diplomacy, Ahmadinejad positioned Iran as a conflict mediator. - Kaveh L Afrasiabi (Sep 24, '08)

Militants shake off Pakistan's grip
Pakistan's tribal areas are steadily falling to a creeping Taliban-led militancy. Military operations have proved ineffective, while the militants have rejected offers of ceasefires. Islamabad and the United States are now getting what they set in motion - "conflict escalation". - Syed Saleem Shahzad (Sep 24, '08)

Al-Qaeda uses Yemen as springboard
Al-Qaeda's recent attack on the US Embassy in Yemen is only a part of its operations in the region. The group is intensifying acts of piracy off the coasts of Yemen and Somalia in an effort to "control the seas and waterways". - Olivier Guitta (Sep 24, '08)

Shady deals in Iraq's arms bazaar
Clandestine gun suppliers, funded by the United States and Iraqi governments, have flooded Iraq with millions of weapons since 2003, many of which have ended up in the hands of insurgents, a new report says. And faulty or non-existent US government tracking systems have allowed companies with patchy records to remain in the lucrative business. (Sep 24, '08)

A reason to bring US troops home
The United States' strong military presence in Japan and South Korea is the result of Cold War commitments which are rapidly losing their relevance. The US bases cost billions of dollars in upkeep and generate no small measure of resentment. Yet withdrawing the troops and securing the US itself has occurred to almost no one in Washington. (Sep 24, '08)

Chinese fear online mobs
While Beijing keeps a tight grip on Internet news and political discussion, it has done little to prevent online defamation and invasions of personal privacy. The result has been "human flesh search engines" - Internet manhunts that seek and expose the personal details of those seen as violating public morals. Now, a landmark case, brought by a hounded philanderer whose wife committed suicide, will decide if the cyber vigilantes have gone too far. - Owen Fletcher (Sep 24, '08)
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China's leaders brace for battle with regions
China's leaders preparing for a key meeting of the Communist Party's Central Committee may face the nightmare they fear most - a disgruntled middle class, hit by falling property and share prices, joining disadvantaged peasants and migrant workers in venting their grievances. - Willy Lam

Russia's Gazprom, navy in an
American knight's move

As the United States mocked Russia's display of its deep-sea capabilities, the visit of Russian warships to South America and the Caribbean coinciding with energy giant Gazprom's deals in the area mark a growing presence on the US backyard. - John Helmer

Palestine: From
bad to wretched

The state of the Palestinian economy is deteriorating to almost unimaginable depths. Adding to the tragedy for its people, yet offering hope, is that the disaster is mostly man-made, thus reversible. - Ramzy Baroud

SPEAKING FREELY
US on reverse socialism path
US Treasury Secretary Henry Paulson's proposed US$700 billion financial rescue plan leaves more questions than answers - not least, whether that sum is sufficient. Certainly, by using taxes on the middle class to bail out the rich, corrupt and incompetent on Wall Street, his plan marks a gross erosion of the social contract. - Ronald Solberg
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The lonely death of Cycle Maung Maung

Being an ardent supporter of Myanmar's military regime brought its perks - and a nickname - for Cycle Maung Maung; a mobile phone, permission to drive a motorcycle in Yangon, things beyond the reach of his neighbors. It also put him in the front lines when the junta and its supporters bloodily suppressed the monk-led uprising of one year ago, and earned him a lot of bad karma. Those who knew Maung say it was karma that killed him. - Norman Robespierre (Sep 24, '08)
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The lonely death of Cycle Maung Maung

Being an ardent supporter of Myanmar's military regime brought its perks - and a nickname - for Cycle Maung Maung; a mobile phone, permission to drive a motorcycle in Yangon, things beyond the reach of his neighbors. It also put him in the front lines when the junta and its supporters bloodily suppressed the monk-led uprising of one year ago, and earned him a lot of bad karma. Those who knew Maung say it was karma that killed him. - Norman Robespierre (Sep 24, '08)

Iran plays up its peacemaker role
In his speech before the United Nations General Assembly, Iranian President Mahmud Ahmadinejad called for free elections in Israel-occupied territories, blasted the West's "bullying" policies and reiterated Tehran's right to nuclear technology. At the same time, blending theology with diplomacy, Ahmadinejad positioned Iran as a conflict mediator. - Kaveh L Afrasiabi (Sep 24, '08)

Militants shake off Pakistan's grip
Pakistan's tribal areas are steadily falling to a creeping Taliban-led militancy. Military operations have proved ineffective, while the militants have rejected offers of ceasefires. Islamabad and the United States are now getting what they set in motion - "conflict escalation". - Syed Saleem Shahzad (Sep 24, '08)

Al-Qaeda uses Yemen as springboard
Al-Qaeda's recent attack on the US Embassy in Yemen is only a part of its operations in the region. The group is intensifying acts of piracy off the coasts of Yemen and Somalia in an effort to "control the seas and waterways". - Olivier Guitta (Sep 24, '08)

Shady deals in Iraq's arms bazaar
Clandestine gun suppliers, funded by the United States and Iraqi governments, have flooded Iraq with millions of weapons since 2003, many of which have ended up in the hands of insurgents, a new report says. And faulty or non-existent US government tracking systems have allowed companies with patchy records to remain in the lucrative business. (Sep 24, '08)

A reason to bring US troops home
The United States' strong military presence in Japan and South Korea is the result of Cold War commitments which are rapidly losing their relevance. The US bases cost billions of dollars in upkeep and generate no small measure of resentment. Yet withdrawing the troops and securing the US itself has occurred to almost no one in Washington. (Sep 24, '08)

Chinese fear online mobs
While Beijing keeps a tight grip on Internet news and political discussion, it has done little to prevent online defamation and invasions of personal privacy. The result has been "human flesh search engines" - Internet manhunts that seek and expose the personal details of those seen as violating public morals. Now, a landmark case, brought by a hounded philanderer whose wife committed suicide, will decide if the cyber vigilantes have gone too far. - Owen Fletcher (Sep 24, '08)



Paulson plan throws oil on fire
US Treasury Secretary Henry Paulson has made the unfolding financial crisis even more dangerous with his plan to create a trust to take on the liabilities of failing institutions. It could ignite the worst inflation in the US and reverse globalization to levels not seen since the Great Depression. - Hossein Askari and Noureddine Krichene (Sep 23, '08)

THE BEAR'S LAIR
The wrong rescues
The US and UK governments have displayed an unerring talent for ignoring history with their most recent bailouts of financial companies. The wrong institutions have been saved and basically solid ones allowed to go to the wall. The consequences include high and unecessary bills for the taxpayer and, further ahead, the movement of financial activity to more competently run locations. - Martin Hutchinson
(Sep 23, '08)
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Damascus fears deviation on peace road

As Israeli premier-in-waiting Tzipi Livni battles to form a government, Syria is preparing for the possibility she will call off the indirect talks with Damascus. The Syrians remember Golda Meir, Israel's first women prime minister, for her role in the October War of 1973. And when Syria is worried, it heads for countries such as Russia, and organizations like Hamas in Palestine. - Sami Moubayed (Sep 25, '08)
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COMMENT
Saving the UN from itself
A despairing mood of inaction and even paralysis grips the United Nations in the face of the world's multiple economic and other problems. There are many root causes for this atrophy, chief among them the UN's penchant for chasing unrealistic goals. A leaner, smarter UN is what is needed. - Kaveh L Afrasiabi (Sep 25, '08)

THE ROVING EYE
A bailout and a new world
While the US is trying to implement its US$700 billion financial bail-out plan, French President Nicolas Sarkozy talks of "rebuilding" capitalism. In the corridors of the United Nations, there is talk of another kind of rebuilding, of a new multipolar world that would get rid of imperialism and colonialism. Call it the revenge of the developing world. - Pepe Escobar (Sep 25, '08)

Anwar plays a waiting game in Malaysia
Malaysian opposition leader Anwar Ibrahim has missed two self-imposed deadlines to topple the government of Prime Minister Abdullah Badawi. Now he has taken a different approach, waiting for the disunited ruling party to do the "dirty" business for him. - Anil Netto (Sep 25, '08)

Iran keeps China in a chokehold
Heavily dependent on Persian Gulf energy imports, China takes seriously Iran's threats to block the crucial oil chokepoint of the Strait of Hormuz, which bristles with Chinese-made anti-ship cruise missiles, attack craft and mines. To prevent a crisis, Beijing prefers to satisfy Tehran's claims and demands by political and diplomatic means. (Sep 25, '08)

A dangerous obsession
Neo-conservatives and former Israeli diplomats are said to be behind the distribution of millions of copies of the controversial, allegedly Islamaphobic movie Obsession in swing states in the United States ahead of November's presidential elections. Now federal authorities have been asked to investigate the "hate propaganda" campaign. (Sep 25, '08)

Aso has dragons to slay
Japan's new Prime Minister Taro Aso needs more than a disarming smile to overcome the dubious legacy of his predecessors and steer his ruling party through elections. If he does win, Aso requires a large enough mandate to avoid political gridlock, mend relations with China and restore the flagging economy - all while avoiding talk of his family's war past. (Sep 25, '08)
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CHINA'S DOLLAR MILLSTONE
History of monetary imperialism
Given US dollar hegenomy, China and Japan have little choice but to invest their export earnings in US Treasuries or other dollar-denominated assets. In consequence, China now lends to the US more than double the vast sums Washington lent to war-torn Europe in 1947 under the Marshall Plan. And the US is anything but war-torn. - Henry C K Liu
This is the third part of a continuing series.
Part 1: Breaking free from dollar hegemony
Part 2: Developing China with sovereign credit
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There is some effort underway to obfuscate what Kissinger said at the
meeting of the five former US Secretaries of State.

Kissinger said:
"I am in favor of negotiating with Iran."

Kissinger said:
"I do not believe that we can make conditions for the opening of negotiations."

The CNN transcript is here:
http://transcripts.cnn.com/TRANSCRIPTS/0809/20/se.01.html

--
Robert Naiman
Just Foreign Policy
www.justforeignpolicy.org
naiman@justforeignpolicy.org

Ambassador Pickering on Iran Talks and Multinational Enrichment
http://youtube.com/watch?v=kGZFrFxVg8A
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<h3 class="sub-section">Editorials</h3> <h3 class="sub-section">Research and Analysis</h3>
Snuffysmith
The fight goes on, militants tell Pakistan

The Taliban have officially rejected a Saudi Arabian-British backdoor initiative for Islamabad to strike peace deals with militants in Pakistan. The Taliban realize the aim is to separate them from al-Qaeda, and are having none of it. So the battle in the tribal areas continues apace, with the militants now attracting vital support from across the border in Afghanistan, as well as from previously pro-Pakistan tribal chiefs. - Syed Saleem Shahzad (Sep 30, '08)

Why the US is losing in Afghanistan
Most of the literature on the cost of the wars in Iraq and Afghanistan and the "war on terror" focuses on the burden these conflicts place on the US federal budget. This is a very real issue, but it deflects attention from another key point: in Afghanistan, the US has consistently failed to provide the financial and military resources necessary to win the war. - Anthony H Cordesman (Sep 30, '08)

Bush had no plan to catch Bin Laden
The United States missed the opportunity to catch Osama bin Laden in Afghanistan in 2001, new evidence reveals, because Washington was obsessed with starting the Iraq War and failed to allocate enough troops to the task. The blunder was allegedly compounded by a decision to turn down an offer of 60,000 Pakistani troops. - Gareth Porter (Sep 30, '08)
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Syria back on the terror map
The main suspects behind Monday's car bombing in the Lebanese city of Tripoli and a similar attack at the weekend in Damascus are Sunni extremists bent on destabilizing the region and seeking revenge for Syria's longstanding ties to jihadi elements. For Syria, "Black Saturday" marks a return to the dark days of its confrontation with the Muslim Brotherhood in the 1980s. - Sami Moubayed (Sep 30, '08)

Myanmar on the cyber-offensive
As opposition activists and underground journalists become more tech savvy, the Myanmar junta becomes more determined to counter the outflow of information and silence its critics abroad. The regime's cyber warfare specialists are receiving plenty of foreign assistance in upgrading their dissent-quashing capabilities. - Brian McCartan (Sep 30, '08)

SUN WUKONG
Carrying the can for
China's tragedies

China's swift punishment of officials linked to the tainted-milk scandal and a recent mining catastrophe may signal a new era of accountability for its leadership. But with the system still vague, and disgraced officials often swiftly re-appointed, the concept seems unlikely to fly. - Wu Zhong (Sep 30, '08)

KEBABBLE
Are Turkey's women
too posh to push?

Last year, only 59% of Turkey's new mothers gave birth naturally. The rest chose the more costly but relatively more sanitized option of a Caesarean section: Turkey's moms are allowing technology and terror to override an intuitive experience. - Fazile Zahir (Sep 30, '08)
Snuffysmith
US Intervention

Avoiding the Choices of 1914 and 1938 - Boston Globe opinion

Proliferation of Nuclear Weapons

The Fragility of the Global Nuclear Order - Boston Globe opinion

Homeland Defense

To Make Sea Traffic Transparent - Washington Times opinion

Islam

Speaking Truth to Islam - Daily Telegraph editorial

US Congress

Bringing an End to ‘Libel Tourism’ - New York Times editorial

US Department of Defense

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DISPATCHES FROM AMERICA
How forgotten Iraq may elect the president
The centerpiece of the United States presidential race may turn on an almost forgotten war in a forgotten country - Iraq, a tinderbox that could explode at any moment. The war is causing two powerful riptides just below the surface of American politics. There is Democrat Senator Barack Obama's war, the realistic disaster that most Americans have now accepted, and Republican Senator John McCain's war, the symbolic success story that so many Americans still wish was the reality. - Ira Chernus (Oct 1, '08)

The cost of boots on the ground in Iraq
The 190,000 contractors in Iraq and neighboring countries, from cooks to truck drivers, have cost US taxpayers US$100 billion from the start of the war through the end of 2008, a new US government study says. Yet while it costs half a million dollars per year to maintain a Blackwater professional armed guard, it costs exactly the same to keep one sergeant in combat in Iraq.
(Oct 1, '08)

Iran fears nuclear witchhunt
The cash-strapped International Atomic Energy Agency's flip-flops on Iran, now saying it cannot confirm the absence of a clandestine nuclear program, raise concerns that the United Nations' nuclear watchdog is under pressure from the West to tighten the screws on Tehran. At the same time, the longer the nuclear crisis continues, the less isolated Tehran becomes internationally. - Kaveh L Afrasiabi (Oct 1, '08)

Sinophobia smolders in Malaysia
A ruling party official in Malaysia has been suspended after an anti-Chinese tirade in which he described ethnic Chinese Malaysians as devious "squatters" undeserving of equal rights. Such racism has a long and tragic history in Southeast Asia, but Malaysia's punitive reaction to the remarks may signal a new era of multiculturalism. - Hui Yew-Foong (Oct 1, '08)

Syria's unlikely shepherd
The United States may be easing its stance towards Syria, an ally of Iran still listed by the US as a sponsor of terror, with talk of a "potential thaw" following recent talks. Damascus has appealed for Washington's help in its burgeoning peace process with Israel, while Saturday's deadly car-bombing in Damascus highlights the need for coordinated counter-terrorism efforts. - Jim Lobe (Oct 1, '08)

Bad tidings in Iraqi Kurdistan
A volatile situation has developed in northern Iraq, where Baghdad's decision to launch "Operation Good Tidings", a military offensive to grasp control of Kurdish-controlled territories, has turned Kurds against the government. Mindful of old wounds, autonomous Kurdistan sees the deployment as a test of its power and promises to match each Iraqi brigade with two of its own.
(Oct 1, '08)

Japan adrift in the Indian Ocean
For the second time in a year, the question of whether or not to extend Japan's Indian Ocean commitment in the US-led war in Afghanistan may decide the fate of the Japanese cabinet. Prime Minister Taro Aso is caught between public opposition to Japan's militarization and unrelenting pressure from Washington to "shoulder its responsibilities". Chasing pirates may be a better option. (Oct 1, '08)
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Chinese doubts weigh on commodities
Concern over the state of the global economy was weighing on commodity prices even before US legislators rejected Treasury Secretary Henry Paulson's financial sector bailout plan. The impact of declining Chinese economic growth is also having an impact that is set to intensify. - R M Cutler

CHINA'S DOLLAR MILLSTONE
Gold, manipulation
and domination

For China, the world's biggest creditor nation, to allow successful national development it must cease having its currency a derivative of the US dollar and stop relying on a US-dollar denominated trade surplus to finance domestic development. The historic role of gold and its manipulation tells it as much. - Henry C K Liu
This is the fourth part of a continuing series.
Part 1: Breaking free from dollar hegemony
Part 2: Developing China with sovereign credit
Part 3: History of monetary imperialism

China eases open bonds door
A market for commercial corporate bonds may be emerging in China, which would greatly increase the opportunities for companies to raise cash without recourse to bank loans or share issues. Even so, serious obstacles to the development of capital markets remain. - Pieter Bottelier
Snuffysmith
Bush had no plan to catch Bin Laden
The United States missed the opportunity to catch Osama bin Laden in Afghanistan in 2001, new evidence reveals, because Washington was obsessed with starting the Iraq War and failed to allocate enough troops to the task. The blunder was allegedly compounded by a decision to turn down an offer of 60,000 Pakistani troops. - Gareth Porter (Sep 30, '08)

The fight goes on, militants tell Pakistan
The Taliban have officially rejected a Saudi Arabian-British backdoor initiative for Islamabad to strike peace deals with militants in Pakistan. The Taliban realize the aim is to separate them from al-Qaeda, and are having none of it. So the battle in the tribal areas continues apace, with the militants now attracting vital support from across the border in Afghanistan, as well as from previously pro-Pakistan tribal chiefs. - Syed Saleem Shahzad (Sep 30, '08)

Why the US is losing in Afghanistan
Most of the literature on the cost of the wars in Iraq and Afghanistan and the "war on terror" focuses on the burden these conflicts place on the US federal budget. This is a very real issue, but it deflects attention from another key point: in Afghanistan, the US has consistently failed to provide the financial and military resources necessary to win the war. - Anthony H Cordesman (Sep 30, '08)

Danger - Ben and Henry at work
United States Fed chairman Ben Bernanke and Treasury Secretary Henry Paulson have failed to cope with the US's financial crisis, and their bailout plan was inequitable, morally unacceptable, in total contradiction to sound banking principles, dangerously inflationary and potentially highly disruptive for the long-term health of the economy. - Hossein Askari and Noureddine Krichene (Sep 30, '08)

The cost of 'no government'
Americans for six successive congressional elections voted into power the anti-government Republican Party. The bills for "getting the government off our backs" - including its crucial regulatory function - are now coming in. - Julian Delasantellis (Sep 30, '08)
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EU Takes the Diplomatic Lead on Georgia
Analysis by Zoltán Dujisin (Inter Press Service)

The European Union, driven by pragmatic concerns over energy supplies and a desire to avoid a new Cold War, has split dramatically with the United States over the best way to encourage peace between Georgia and Russia. Read full story.
http://www.rightweb.irc-online.org/rw/4953.html
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US Congress Revives Spectre of 1930s - Gerard Baker, The Australian
No Need to Fear North Korea's Collapse - J. Bolton & N. Eberstadt, WSJ
Russian Liberals Need to Come to Grips - Boris Kapustin, Moscow Times
The Great Crash of China - Brian Klein, Far Eastern Economic Review
Murder Capitals of the World - Foreign Policy
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From Losing to Winning in Afghanistan - Michael O'Hanlon and Andrew Shearer, Washington Times opinion

... As Gen. Petraeus sets his sights now on the broader Central Command region, and US presidential candidates together with Secretary of Defense Robert Gates assert the need for more international forces in Afghanistan, it is becoming safe to assume that the international presence in Afghanistan will further strengthen over the coming months, perhaps from its current total of some 62,000 troops to 75,000 or more. There is talk, not surprisingly, of a "surge" for Afghanistan, and hope that we can soon accomplish there what has begun to take root in Iraq.
But we must avoid viewing the situation entirely in this light. Combined Iraqi and international forces numbered 600,000 or more personnel in the crucial months of the surge. In Afghanistan, the current figure is less than 200,000 and will grow only modestly in coming months - for a country even larger and more populous than Iraq. Afghanistan does not have the economic resources, or the historical track record of operating as a strong and cohesive polity, that Iraq enjoys. And for all the trouble Syria and Iran have caused in Iraq, by shipping in weaponry and tolerating the flow of al Qaeda fighters into the country, they have never represented the kind of sanctuary for main insurgent groups that Pakistan's tribal regions provide in regard to Afghanistan.
As such, it is difficult to spell out a convincing strategy for turning things around in Afghanistan. Almost surely, we will not find a silver bullet strategy as we did in Iraq; the first goal will be to arrest the deterioration of the situation, and only thereafter to turn the momentum in favor of the Afghan people and government as well as the international community. We need to do what is possible across four main fronts, and then hope that over time small positive developments within each strengthen and reinforce each...
More at The Washington Times.

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Balance and Modesty in America's Military Posture - Judah Grunstein, World Politics Review blog

Matthew E. Valkovic and Brian M. Burton pen a Small Wars Journal op-ed that pushes back a bit against Andrew Bacevich's recent Atlantic piece on the Army's internal "COIN vs. Conventional" doctrinal debates. You have to gather some momentum in order to influence an institution as massive and resistant to change as the US Army, especially in the immediate aftermath of the violently imposed transformation of the Rumsfeld era. Add the immediacy, very eloquently expressed by Abu Muqawama, of watching your fellow soldiers die and I think the conviction of the COIN "crusaders," as Bacevich characterizes them, becomes very understandable.
Now that the COIN approach has won its bona fides in Iraq, a consensus -- and it strikes me as a reasonable one -- is emerging, expressed by Bob Gates in the speech I flagged yesterday, and echoed by Valkovic and Burton. According to that consensus, we need COIN because that's what we're doing at the moment, and it's very likely we'll be called on to do it in the future. That doesn't mean we'll abandon our conventional capacity, which is why Gates, Valkovic and Burton, emphasize balance. But it makes no sense to lose the war you're fighting in order to win one you might fight in the future.
More at World Politics Review.

Re Not Fighting the Current War - Jules Crittenden, Forward Movement blog

Never mind the last one. Boston University Prof. Andrew Bacevich says he’s worried about the next one, but his big problem is with the current one. Bacevich decries the US Army’s new counterinsurgency focus, suggesting that it reduces conventional capabilities, and that Bush War-driven practical needs are pre-empting a traditional chain-of-command policy process. Like much of what he has written lately, while it may in fact touch on some serious concerns, it veers quickly into the ridiculous...
It’s not so much that we are faced with two significant counterinsurgencies … and the prospect that others will demand our attention … and that we are compelled to fight them. It’s that training our forces to do so will perpetuate a Bush doctrine of imperial domination...
At Small Wars Journal, Bacevich is very deftly answered on the merits of his argument, or lack thereof, by a lieutenant and a think-tank policy wonk...
More at Forward Movement.

Reconstruction and Stabilization Corps to be Enacted - Matt Armstrong, MountainRunner blog

Military operations may neutralize immediate kinetic threats and strategic communications may make promises, but enduring change comes from systemic overhauls that stabilize unstable regions. Security, humanitarian relief, governance, economic stabilization, and development are critical for stability and denial of sanctuary for violent extremism, terrorism, and insurgency. These are the real propaganda of deeds but without competent and comprehensive action in these areas, military and diplomatic actions are simply a waste of time, money, and life.
Bullets and bombs represent short-term tactical responses to a much larger strategic dilemma. Any text worth reading on insurgency or counterinsurgency recognizes and emphasizes the operational and strategic center of gravity is the people. Failing to address grinding poverty and disillusionment in regions creates fertile breeding grounds for extremists, terrorists, and insurgents to attack the national interests of the United States.
More at MountainRunner.

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Afghanistan is going to require one of the most complicated exercises in statecraft undertaken by the United States in years. The next US President must grasp both Pakistani and Indian motivations in Afghanistan, for these regional dynamics drive the "proxy invasion" that is undermining the coalition’s efforts there. A sound regional approach should lead the United States to re-evaluate blank-check security assistance to Pakistan; increase investment in non-military aspects of the US-Pakistan relationship; and actively try to build confidence between New Delhi, Islamabad, and Kabul.

--Vikram Singh and Nathaniel Fick - Small Wars Journal

Like Gentile, Bacevich offers much criticism but no alternative solution for America’s current predicament. He says the United States must retain “strategic choice.” We agree: maintaining a variety of capabilities, both military and civilian, to operate across a range of strategic environments is essential to preserve US national security. But what of Iraq and Afghanistan today? Is America supposed to simply turn its back on those countries and act like the past seven years never happened? Is the Army supposed to go back to preparing only for the conventional wars it wants to fight rather than the irregular ones it actually is fighting? We humbly submit that the answer is no.

--Matthew Valkovic and Brian Burton - Small Wars Journal

I know Gates is hot to leave, but I hope he gets extended exchange time with Obama's people and hopefully with the man himself. He has done a magnificent job of trying to set the Defense Department on the best and most logical path going forward, and if the next SECDEF doesn't keep up that course, I will be sorely disappointed.
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