IRAQ House Of Cards Last month, when Gen. David Petraeus
handed command of coalition forces in Iraq to Gen. Ray Odierno, the new top U.S. commander announced that while "Iraq is now a different country from the one" he first saw, the "
gains are fragile and reversible." Odierno's sentiments were reflected earlier this month when the Pentagon released a report detailing how violence had continued to decline over the summer. At the same time, the report warned of "
several problems that could rekindle violence among competing groups and upset the recent progress on security." These concerns include the reintegration of "the nearly 100,000 predominantly Sunni volunteer fighters known as the Sons of Iraq into the army, police or other jobs," continued "Iranian influence in funding, training and arming militias," and expected sectarian tensions ahead of provincial elections. Other "
flash points that could lead to violence" include "friction between Arabs and Kurds" over Kurdish control of areas in Northern Iraq and disputes over "how to divide its oil revenue among the different regions." A
recent spate of
bombings have underscored the fact that "Iraq is on a knife's edge between war and peace." After five bomb attacks struck Baghdad late last month, the New York Times reported that the incidents "
reinforced fears among a growing number of residents that the security situation in Baghdad was deteriorating." "The surge has set up
a political house of cards," wrote
Brian Katulis,
Marc Lynch,
Peter Juul recently for the Center for American Progress. "The United States needs to rebalance its overall national security approach by stepping outside of the trenches of intra-Iraqi disputes over power and putting the focus back on its core national security interests."
SONS OF IRAQ: Last Wednesday, the Shi'ite-led Iraqi government took command of
the first wave of 54,000 members of the Sons of Iraq as part of "a U.S.-backed effort to ease sectarian mistrust and offer Sunnis a stronger stake in the country's future." But the transition from U.S. control to Iraqi control is rife with tension. "Some leaders of the Sons of Iraq feel that the transition represents a betrayal by the U.S. The government of Prime Minister Nouri Maliki also
questioned the Sunni fighters' loyalty to Iraqi forces and whether it can provide jobs and training for all of them," the Los Angeles Times reported last week. "
US officers are nervous that the government will not keep its word when the first salaries are due early November" and "some US units have reportedly set aside cash to pay the SOI for a few months, just in case." Before the handover of authority, Wahab al-Zubaie, a spokesman for one of the Sunni groups, told the Associated Press "that
security could deteriorate if Sunni fighters are sidelined." Some Sunnis "
draw comparisons between the dissolution of the Sons of Iraq and the disbanding of the Iraqi army," which was "a
key strategic blunder that gave a massive boost to the insurgency." American leaders like Petraeus reject this comparison.
PROVINCIAL ELECTIONS: On Friday, Iraq's presidency council approved "
a long-delayed law that will allow most of the country to hold provincial elections early next year." The Iraqi parliament "approved the law unanimously on Sept. 24 following months of deadlock" after they "
agreed to set aside the divisive issues of power-sharing in an oil-rich northern region and the representation of minorities." Before the presidency council approved the law, the U.N. special representative to Iraq, Staffan de Mistura,
criticized the parliament for scrapping the "key clause that would have guaranteed seats for Christians and other minorities." De Mistura urged that the provision "be reinstated into the legislation as soon as possible." A staff aide to one of Iraq's vice presidents told McClatchy that the presidency council will
ask parliament to reinstate the provision, which is
supported by Prime Minister Nouri al-Maliki. Though the "elections law is seen as
a key step toward bringing underrepresented groups back into Iraqi politics," Lynch says the elections will not be a "magic bullet that's going to solve all the problems." "It's going to reshuffle the deck in terms of who's in and who's out, but
I don't think it's going to be a magic bullet that is suddenly going to resolve all the political problems in Iraq," Lynch told the Council on Foreign Relations. "The problems run deep."
ABOVE PRE-SURGE TROOP LEVELS: During the vice presidential debate last Thursday, Alaska Gov. Sarah Palin ® declared that "with the surge that has worked we're now
down to pre-surge numbers in Iraq." Palin's claim about current troop levels in Iraq is not true. As ABC News noted in a fact-check of the debate, "the number of troops on the ground is still higher and the number of combat brigades is the same as at the start of the surge in January 2007, according to Pentagon figures. Iraq troop levels before the surge were at 133,500. While U.S. troop levels in Iraq have been in the 142,000 range recently,
today they are at around 150,000 because of an ongoing troop rotation." The day after the debate, Palin was
given an opportunity by Fox News's Carl Cameron to correct her false claim. But Palin "did not apologize
nor did she retract her assertion that U.S. forces in Iraq are at pre-surge levels." Palin's running mate, Sen. John McCain (R-AZ), made a similar misstatement in May, saying that "
we have drawn down to pre-surge levels." Like Palin, McCain refused to admit that he made mistake. Instead, McCain subtly changed his language to say "we are
drawing back down from the surge."