--------------------
Vital Nuclear Parts Missing
--------------------

Investigators worry that some components of a weapons factory ordered by Libya have fallen into the hands of another nation.

By Douglas Frantz
Times Staff Writer

April 22 2005

ZURICH, Switzerland; Critical components and specialized tools destined for Libya's nuclear weapons program disappeared before arrival in 2003 and international investigators now suspect that they were diverted to another country, according to court records and investigators.

The complete article can be viewed at:
http://www.latimes.com/news/nationworld/wo...0,7993491.story

NORTH KOREA'S PREPARATION FOR NUCLEAR ARMS TEST DETECTED
By Bill Gertz
THE WASHINGTON TIMES
-----------------------------------------------------------
U.S. intelligence agencies have detected activity at facilities in North Korea indicating Pyongyang may be preparing to conduct its first nuclear test in the near future, according to U.S. officials.

The Bush administration has made a private diplomatic appeal to the Chinese government to use its influence with the North Koreans to head off any test.

A North Korean nuclear test would bring the communist state into the exclusive club of nations that are declared nuclear powers.

Any test also would increase tensions in the region and possibly spur Japan or other nations to seek their own nuclear weapons.

The suspected test-related activity was detected by U.S. spy satellites in the past several days, said officials who spoke on the condition of anonymity. It was reported by the National Geospatial-Intelligence Agency, which is in charge of analyzing satellite photographs.

North Korea is believed to have underground facilities for its nuclear activities at several locations across the country.

One U.S. official familiar with the issue said the intelligence on test preparations is "ambiguous."

Other officials said the intelligence included indications related to testing activity that for other nuclear powers normally includes a site where a device is placed in a deep hole and the monitoring equipment is deployed nearby.

Little is known about North Korea's covert nuclear efforts, which triggered a crisis in October 2002 that led to the current stalled talks on the issue.

North Korea's known nuclear facilities include the Yongbyon complex, where a reactor recently was shut down in what officials think could be preparation for additional reprocessing of spent fuel into bomb-making material.

A second official said North Korea could be at the point of testing a nuclear device.

North Korea is believed to have enough nuclear fuel for one or two weapons and could have enough seed material for up to eight bombs, according to U.S. officials.

The second official said North Korea in recent weeks has declared openly that it has nuclear weapons and that "a test would be the next step."

White House National Security Council spokesman Frederick Jones declined to comment on the North Korean activity or the appeal to China. Mr. Jones said he could not discuss "our diplomatic conversations or intelligence matters."

In September, U.S. intelligence agencies detected a mushroom cloud in a remote region near North Korea's border with China that at first was thought to have been the result of a possible nuclear test.

It later was found to have been an unusual cloud formation, and no radiation was ever detected near the cloud from the U.S. sensors that monitor North Korea.

Those sensors include special "sniffer" equipment that can detect nuclear material in the atmosphere.

A CIA report made public in November said that North Korea threatened to "demonstrate" its nuclear weapons or to "transfer" weapons abroad.

The threat was made at the April 2003 talks and again in August 2003, the CIA report said.

Administration officials said the threat was first made by North Korean negotiator Li Gun during a meeting with James Kelly, assistant secretary of state for East Asia, during a closed-door meeting in Beijing.

Mr. Li told Mr. Kelly that the communist state would "export nuclear weapons, add to its current arsenal or test a nuclear device," according to an official familiar with the exchange.

• Sharon Behn contributed to this report.
(http://www.wpherald.com/storyview.php?StoryID=20050423-085832-6308r)
For more great articles, visit us at http://www.wpherald.com/

Copyright © 2005 News World Communications, Inc. All rights reserved.

http://www.japantimes.co.jp/cgi-bin/getart...n20050422f2.htm

Scientists, academics urge major nuclear powers to dispose of weapons

Bolton Nomination Appears in Serious Trouble Periódico 26

U.S. takes brakes off nuke arms race :

As hard as it might be to believe, the United States is embarked on a path that's bound to trigger yet another nuclear arms race. Yet few in this country seem to be paying attention.
http://www.madison.com/tct/opinion//index....d=37398&ntpid=0

http://snipurl.com/e8iw

Nations to Address Nuclear Treaty Issues
(Charles J. Hanley, Associated Press)
http://www.washingtonpost.com/wp-dyn/conte...5042300624.html

Saturday, April 23
Nuclear "haves" and "have-nots," at odds over the lingering hold of atomic weapons on the world, risk reaching little more than noisy deadlock at an upcoming conference reviewing the Nuclear Nonproliferation Treaty.

North Korea, Iran, a fear of nuclear terrorism, U.S. talk of new weapons--all give delegates from more than 180 treaty nations a host of issues to confront at a tense, troubled time internationally. A panel of U.N. experts warns of a "cascade" of nuclear proliferation if NPT controls erode further. But diplomats haven't even settled on an agenda yet, a week before the May 2-27 meeting in New York, chiefly because of differences between Washington and non-nuclear states.

The Bush administration wants to keep the focus on Iran, which it contends is cheating on the treaty and secretly planning to build nuclear arms. But many other governments want equal emphasis on speeding up what they see as the weapons states' slow pace toward nuclear disarmament, to which they are committed under the 1970 treaty.

The 2005 NPT Conference in Crisis: Risks and Opportunities
(Rebecca Johnson, Disarmament Diplomacy)
http://www.acronym.org.uk/dd/dd79/79npt.htm

April/May 2005
The Seventh Review Conference of the States Parties to the Treaty on the Non-Proliferation of Nuclear Weapons (NPT) will be held in New York, May 2-27. Predictions are generally pessimistic, with suggestions that the outcome will either be an anodyne document based on the lowest common denominator of what the United States can be persuaded not to veto (i.e. with no endorsement of the CTBT, verifiable fissile materials treaty or the 'thirteen steps' on nuclear disarmament and nonproliferation agreed by the 2000 Review Conference); or that the conference will be divisive and bad-tempered, and will fail to adopt any agreements whatsoever.

Such analyses tends to miss the major point: what is at stake is not the fate of a document or conference, but the future of international security. So instead of panicking about the 'crisis', we need to focus on the risks and responsibilities facing the international community and be prepared to find creative and flexible mechanisms for getting at least some useful agreements through.

There are five key challenges confronting the nuclear nonproliferation regime:

apparent ease of withdrawal from the treaty;
institutional weaknesses for implementing the treaty and ensuring compliance;
nuclear doctrine and disarmament;
the relationship between the nuclear fuel cycle and acquisition of nuclear weapons; and
safety and security of weapons, materials, technology and facilities.

Signs Stir Concern North Korea Might Test Nuclear Bomb
(Glenn Kessler, Washington Post)
http://www.washingtonpost.com/wp-dyn/conte...5042201655.html

Saturday, April 23
U.S. officials are increasingly concerned that North Korea may be preparing its first test of a nuclear weapon, though they warn that the information is sketchy and not definitive.

A top U.S. diplomat, Assistant Secretary of State Christopher R. Hill, flew to the region yesterday to consult over the weekend with officials in Beijing, Tokyo and Seoul about the signs that a test may be in the works. Officials especially want China, North Korea's main patron, to use its leverage with Pyongyang to stop it from conducting a test.

One U.S. official said the concern about Pyongyang's intentions was heightened by signs of increased activity at missile sites and other places that could be used for underground tests. U.S. spy satellites observed the activity, but it is extremely difficult to interpret, as the mistakes regarding alleged weapons of mass destruction in Iraq demonstrated.

N. Korea to 'Bolster' A-weapons
(Choe Sang-Hun, International Herald Tribune)
http://www.iht.com/articles/2005/04/24/news/korea.php

Monday, April 25
North Korea's military said Sunday that it would steadily bolster its nuclear arsenal, a warning that comes amid rising concerns that the country might take provocative steps, such as glean more plutonium from its nuclear power plant or even conduct a nuclear test, while six-nation talks on defusing the crisis were stalled.

Vice Marshal Kim Yong Chun, a member of the North Korean National Defense Commission, said, using the abbreviation for the Democratic People's Republic of Korea: "The army and the people of the DPRK will never remain a passive onlooker to the U.S. moves to isolate and stifle the DPRK, but will steadily bolster its nuclear deterrent for self-defense to cope with the enemies' reckless moves for military aggression."

Kim accused the United States of causing international efforts for a diplomatic settlement to collapse. He made his comments in a speech marking the 73rd anniversary of North Korea's 1.2 million-strong military, the world's fifth largest. His remarks were carried by the North's official press agency, KCNA.

Report Finds No Evidence Syria Hid Iraqi Arms
(Dana Priest, Washington Post)
http://www.washingtonpost.com/wp-dyn/conte...5042501554.html

Tuesday, April 26
U.S. investigators hunting for weapons of mass destruction in Iraq have found no evidence that such material was moved to Syria for safekeeping before the war, according to a final report of the investigation released yesterday.

Although Syria helped Iraq evade U.N.-imposed sanctions by shipping military and other products across its borders, the investigators "found no senior policy, program, or intelligence officials who admitted any direct knowledge of such movement of WMD." Because of the insular nature of Saddam Hussein's government, however, the investigators were "unable to rule out unofficial movement of limited WMD-related materials."

The Iraq Survey Group's main findings -- that Hussein's Iraq did not possess chemical and biological weapons and had only aspirations for a nuclear program -- were made public in October in an interim report covering nearly 1,000 pages. Yesterday's final report, published on the Government Printing Office's Web site ( http://www.gpo.gov ), incorporated those pages with minor editing and included 92 pages of addenda that tied up loose ends on Syria and other topics.

Uranium Work Will Resume, Iran Vows
(Ali Akbar Dareini, Associated Press)
http://www.philly.com/mld/inquirer/news/nation/11480706.htm

Monday, April 25
Iran will resume uranium enrichment regardless of the outcome of its negotiations with three European powers over its nuclear program, a Foreign Ministry spokesman said yesterday.

Speaking to reporters five days before Iran was to resume nuclear talks with France, Britain and Germany, Hamid Reza Asefi said the Europeans appeared to be serious in seeking an agreement with Iran. But he added that any settlement had to respect Iran's right, as a signatory to the Nuclear Non-Proliferation Treaty, to enrich uranium.

The Europeans have been offering economic incentives in the hope that Iran will turn its temporary suspension of uranium-enrichment activities into a permanent freeze.

Links of Interest:
Bipartisan House Resolution (H. Con. Res. 133) on the Nuclear Nonproliferation Treaty (NPT),
109th Congress, 1st Session, Stating the policy of the Congress concerning actions to support the Treaty on the Non-Proliferation of Nuclear Weapons (NPT) on the occasion of the Seventh NPT Review Conference, 14 April 2005

NPT Briefing Book,
Center for Nonproliferation Studies, Monterrey Institute of International Studies, April 2005 Edition

Carnegie News:

Deadly Arsenals II: The second edition of Carnegie's proliferation atlas, Deadly Arsenals: Nuclear, Biological and Chemical Threats, will be available for purchase this July. The second edition is substantially revised and updated with new chapters on Iran, Iraq, North Korea, Libya and others. The original 2002 book was selected as a CHOICE Outstanding Academic Title in 2003 as a "best of the best in published scholarship." The study is widely used in university graduate and undergraduate courses and is a staple on experts' bookshelves. For additional information, please email cdutto@carnegieendowment.org.

TAIWAN NEEDS WEAPONS TO COUNTER CHINA BUILDUP
By Bill Gertz
THE WASHINGTON TIMES
-----------------------------------------------------------
Taiwan urgently needs to buy submarines, missile defenses and patrol aircraft to counter the growing threat posed by China's rapid buildup of military forces, a former Pentagon China specialist says.

Retired Air Force Lt. Col. Mark Stokes, until recently one of the top China policy-makers at the Pentagon, said the Chinese arms buildup is "extremely serious and growing more serious by the day."

"Since 1999, the People's Republic of China has embarked on a concentrated and aggressive campaign to diversify its options in order to force Taiwan's political and military capitulation in an increasingly brief period of time," Col. Stokes said.

Col. Stokes, currently a defense consultant living in Taiwan, provided his remarks to The Washington Times in an e-mail message after they first appeared in the Taipei Times.

Col. Stokes said Taiwan needs to buy the eight diesel electric submarines the United States offered several years ago, along with Patriot PAC-3 missile defense systems and P-3 maritime patrol aircraft.

The submarines are needed to thwart China's strategy of conducting a massive first strike on Taiwan at the outset of a conflict.

"China has a relatively weak anti-submarine warfare [ASW] capability, and submarines provide an asymmetrical means to put the [People's Liberation Army's] surface assets at risk," Col. Stokes said, noting that the submarines could thwart China's growing submarine force.

The overview by the former official comes as Taiwan is considering passage of a special $18 billion budget for new arms.

It also comes as Lian Chan, chairman of the nation's opposition Kuomintang, or KMT political party, is set to make the first visit to China by a KMT leader since 1949, when the Chinese nationalist forces fled the mainland during a civil war.

The KMT in the past has opposed passage of the special arms budget.

Col. Stokes said the U.S. response to a Chinese attack on Taiwan will depend in part on how willing Taiwan is to defend itself.

Taiwan once was able to resist a mainland attack for months or weeks, but now has only days to survive, he said.

"This is why Taiwan needs to invest in a force that can sustain itself long enough for the United States to come to its aid," he said.

"No one should expect the United States to enthusiastically risk the lives of its own young sailors, airmen, soldiers and marines to defend a Taiwan that is not willing to take the steps necessary to provide for a strong defense," Col. Stokes said.

If a crisis happens in five or 10 years and Taiwan is not ready, then "future historians are very likely to place part of the blame on a KMT leadership that sacrificed long-term interests for short-term political gains," he said.

Col. Stokes said that while submarines and patrol aircraft are needed, buying missile defenses should be the top priority.

China has an estimated 750 short-range missiles within range of Taiwan, according to defense officials.

(http://www.wpherald.com/storyview.php?StoryID=20050426-113512-6435r)
Copyright © 2005 News World Communications, Inc. All rights reserved.

New gaps in controlling the spread of nuclear arms
Moves in N. Korea and developing countries coincide with global review
of a nuclear treaty. By Howard LaFranchi
http://www.csmonitor.com/2005/0427/p01s04-usfp.html?s=hns

Nuclear Deterrence

FOR ANYONE hoping the Senate will step back from the nuclear brink on judicial nominations, talk of compromise this week by prominent senators is encouraging. The details remain fuzzy; they also vary depending on which senator is talking. In the past few days, Democratic leader Harry M. Reid (Nev.)...

To view the entire article, go to http://www.washingtonpost.com/wp-dyn/conte...er=emailarticle

http://www.wpherald.com/storyview.php?Stor...27-015324-9645r

Britain rules out strike on Iran

A Critical Conference
(Testimony to the Subcommittee on International Terrorism and Nonproliferation by Joseph Cirincione)
http://www.carnegieendowment.org/publicati...a=view&id=16830

Thursday, April 28
The danger today is that many nations see American support for the NPT waning. They sense antipathy, even hostility, towards the treaty and an unwillingness to consider their views. If the NPT Review Conference ends in disagreement, if it fails to produce a consensus document, many nations will see this as a sign that the regime is unraveling. They may begin to hedge their bets. Nations with ample technological ability to develop nuclear weapons may be reconsidering their political decisions not to do so. India, Pakistan and Israel—the three nuclear weapon states outside the NPT—may become more resistant to coming into conformity with nonproliferation norms and security procedures. This conference will also play a critical role in resolving the crisis with Iran.

Putting PSI into Perspective
(Carnegie Analysis, Joseph Cirincione and Joshua Williams)
http://www.carnegieendowment.org/npp/publi...a=view&id=16827

Wednesday, April 27
The Proliferation Security Initiative (PSI) is a good program that has been puffed up out of proportion. It has become an issue in recent weeks because of the controversial nomination of John Bolton, one of PSI’s most ardent supporters, to be U.S. ambassador to the UN. Now is a good time to clarify its achievements, shortcomings, and potential. PSI provides needed cooperation for interdicting the illegal transfers of nuclear, biological, and chemical weapons-related technology. It is particularly useful for stopping large, observable shipments, such as a boatload of centrifuges, but does little to catch small but deadly transfers, like a suitcase of plutonium. It is restricted, moreover, by its limited geographic reach and legal scope.

'Bunker Buster' Casualty Risk Cited
(Ann Scott Tyson, Washington Post)
http://www.washingtonpost.com/wp-dyn/conte...5042702098.html

Thursday, April 28
Earth-penetrating nuclear bombs would be capable of destroying military targets deep underground, but not without inflicting "massive casualties at ground level," according to a congressionally mandated study released yesterday.

The study's findings reflect a growing scientific consensus that even relatively small nuclear "bunker-buster" weapons -- under study by the Bush administration but strongly opposed by some members of Congress and arms-control advocates -- could not be used without a high cost in human life. Such a bomb could cause more than a million deaths, depending on the yield, the report said.

"You can use a much smaller weapon if you use an earth penetrator, maybe 20 times smaller, but you will kill a lot of people, because it puts out a huge amount of radioactive debris," said John F. Ahearne, chairman of the Committee on the Effects of Nuclear Earth-Penetrator and Other Weapons of the National Research Council, which produced the report.

US Wants to Sell Israel ‘Bunker-buster’ Bombs
(Demetri Sevastopulo, Financial Times)
http://news.ft.com/cms/s/facbfdde-b6ac-11d...000e2511c8.html

Wednesday, April 27
The Bush administration has proposed providing Israel with 100 “bunker-buster” bombs capable of destroying underground targets, a move seen as sending a message to Iran to halt its nuclear programme.

The Pentagon on Tuesday notified Congress of the possible sale of 5,000lb GBU-28 bombs, developed during the 1991 Gulf war to destroy Saddam Hussein's hardened command centres. Congress has 30 days to object. Any deal would be the first sale of the Lockheed Martin-built munition to a foreign country.

The 2005 NPT Review Conference: Can It Meet the Nuclear Challenge?
(Jean du Preez, Arms Control Today)
http://www.armscontrol.org/act/2005_04/duPreez.asp

April 2005
When the NPT states-parties meet in New York in May at the 2005 Review Conference, they will be confronted with the most difficult challenges the NPT has ever faced. Tackling these problems requires that states-parties, individually and collectively, muster the political will to implement all their obligations under the treaty. The review conference can play an important role in this process by turning the spotlight on today’s nonproliferation and disarmament challenges and identifying collective and national responses to deal with them.

It is important that they do so in earnest and not seek to fix the cracks in the NPT’s armor through carefully scripted and often watered-down consensus language for the sake of a “successful outcome” or final document. Failure to focus on and resolve these tough issues, even though doing so may require difficult decisions and hard compromises, runs the risks of making the NPT irrelevant and leading to the eventual downfall of the regime. Yet, if judged by preparatory discussions, there seems to be a sense of complacency among many states-parties to confront these challenges head on.

U.S. Envoy Says 6-Way Talks Still Best for N.Korea
(Linda Sieg, Reuters)
http://www.washingtonpost.com/wp-dyn/conte...5042800009.html

Thursday, April 28
Washington still believes six-nation talks are the best way to solve the North Korean nuclear crisis, the top U.S. diplomat on the matter said on Thursday, steering clear of speculation that a deadline was looming for Pyongyang to return to the table.

U.S. Assistant Secretary of State Christopher Hill declined to say whether he thought the stalled multilateral talks would resume before the end of June, when a full year will have passed since the last round of inconclusive discussions.

"We cannot have a situation where a country like North Korea is developing nuclear weapons," he said. "We believe the six-party process is the best way to solve this." Hill arrived in Tokyo from Beijing on Wednesday on a whirlwind tour of the region aimed at finding a way to bring North Korea back to stalled talks on its nuclear arms programs.

Carnegie News:
On April 28, 2005, Carnegie Director for Non-Proliferation Joseph Cirincione testified before the U.S. House of Representatives Committee on International Relations, Subcommittee on International Terrorism and Nonproliferation. His testimony, "A Critical Conference," was part of the hearing on "Previewing the Nuclear Nonproliferation Treaty."

Surprise Testimony On Arms in N. Korea

By Bradley Graham and Glenn Kessler

The Pentagon's top military intelligence officer said yesterday that North Korea has the ability to arm a missile with a nuclear device, stunning senators he was addressing and prompting attempts by other defense and intelligence officials later to play down the remarks.

To view the entire article, go to http://www.washingtonpost.com/wp-dyn/conte...er=emailarticle

--------------------
N. Korea Can Arm Missile, U.S. Aide Says
--------------------

Top U.S. official surprises a hearing by saying Pyongyang can arm a missile with a nuclear device, but others contradict him.

By Greg Miller and Mark Mazzetti
Times Staff Writers

April 29 2005

WASHINGTON; The head of the Defense Intelligence Agency testified Thursday that North Korea now has the ability to arm a missile with a nuclear device, marking the first time a U.S. intelligence official has publicly said Pyongyang has crossed that critical technological threshold.

The complete article can be viewed at:
http://www.latimes.com/news/printedition/f...lines-frontpage

--------------------
U.S. Downplays Remarks on N. Korea's Arms Ability
--------------------

Officials say the head of the Defense Intelligence Agency may have overstated Pyongyang's nuclear missile progress.

By Greg Miller and Mark Mazzetti
Times Staff Writers

April 30 2005

WASHINGTON; Although intelligence analysts are increasingly concerned that North Korea may be able to arm a missile with a nuclear warhead, U.S. spy agencies have not obtained evidence confirming that Pyongyang has developed that capability, intelligence officials and weapons proliferation experts said Friday.

The complete article can be viewed at:
http://www.latimes.com/news/nationworld/wo...0,2283779.story

N.Korea May Carry Out Nuclear Test by June - Kyodo

TOKYO (Reuters) - The United States has warned theInternational Atomic Energy Agency that North Korea has been
preparing to carry out an underground nuclear test since March
and could go ahead as early as June, Kyodo news agency said on
Saturday.

To view the entire article, go to http://www.washingtonpost.com/wp-dyn/conte...er=emailarticle

http://www.voanews.com/english/Iran-May-Re...-Talks-Fail.cfm

Iran May Resume Nuclear Work as Talks Fail

http://www.voanews.com/english/Report-Nort...Be-Imminent.cfm

Report: North Korean Nuclear Test May Be Imminent

http://www.voanews.com/english/2005-04-28-voa37.cfm

North Korea's Nuclear Ambitions Challenge International Community

--------------------
Iran Likely to Restart Enrichment
--------------------

From Associated Press

May 1 2005

TEHRAN; Iran said Saturday that it was likely to resume activities related to uranium enrichment within a week, a process it had halted last year to build confidence in talks with European countries and avoid referral to the United Nations Security Council for possible sanctions.

The complete article can be viewed at:
http://www.latimes.com/news/nationworld/wo...headlines-world

http://www.nytimes.com/2005/05/01/internat...059&partner=AOL

Threats by Iran and North Korea Shadow Talks on Nuclear Arms

Draft U.S. paper allows commanders to seek preemptive nuke strikes:

The paper says in allowing combatant commanders in the Pacific and other theaters to maintain an option of preemptive strikes against "rogue" states and terrorists and "request presidential approval for use of nuclear weapons" under set conditions.
http://www.informationclearinghouse.info/article8718.htm

http://snipurl.com/elj0

Iran Plans Defense of Nuclear Program

By Dafna Linzer

Iran is planning to mount a staunch defense of its nuclear energy program at an international conference beginning today and will insist on rights to the same technology afforded to all members of the Nuclear Non-Proliferation Treaty (NPT), a senior Iranian official said in an interview yesterday.

To view the entire article, go to http://www.washingtonpost.com/wp-dyn/conte...er=emailarticle

US wants to focus on Iran and North Korea, but world wants to talk about US and other nuclear powers.

http://csmonitor.com/2005/0502/dailyUpdate.html

http://www.atimes.com/atimes/Front_Page/GE03Aa01.html

Nuclear Nonproliferation Treaty is a crock
Bhaskar Dasgupta

http://www.wpherald.com/storyview.php?Stor...02-102605-4742r

Annan warns of nuclear proliferation

--------------------
Global Nuclear Meeting Opens
--------------------

By CHARLES J. HANLEY
AP Special Correspondent

May 2 2005, 10:58 PM PDT

UNITED NATIONS -- The voice was soft, calm, familiar. But the scenario Kofi Annan sketched out was chilling.

The complete article can be viewed at:
http://www.latimes.com/news/nationworld/wo...opinternational

http://www.antiwar.com/eland/

Bush Administration Bluster Exacerbates Nuclear Proliferation
Ivan Eland

http://news.independent.co.uk/world/americ...sp?story=635171

Outdated nuclear treaty is a threat to us all, warns Annan

http://www.antiwar.com/ips/rizvi.php?articleid=5819

Bunker-busting nukes could devastate civilians
NewScientist.com

THE PROGRESS REPORT

by Christy Harvey, Judd Legum and Jonathan Baskin with Nico Pitney and Mipe Okunseinde

May 3, 2005

NATIONAL SECURITY
The Other Nuclear Option

This month, for the first time in five years, representatives from 189 countries will meet at the United Nations to review the Nuclear Non-Proliferation Treaty (NPT), the world's bedrock arms control agreement. It is the first opportunity the world has had to formally discuss the NPT since the September 11 terrorist attacks, and since A.Q. Khan's frightening global black market in nuclear technology was exposed. It comes in the midst of severely heightened tensions over nuclear programs in North Korea and Iran, and a "crisis of confidence" in global nonproliferation efforts. "We are approaching a point at which the erosion of the nonproliferation regime could become irreversible and result in a cascade of proliferation," U.N. Secretary-General Kofi Annan's high-level panel recently advised. Not gloomy enough for you? Short of a serious turnaround, the meetings will be a failure. "If we could get out of this conference without a major blow-up we would be doing well," says Matt Martin of the British American Security Information Council. How did we get to this point, and where are we headed? The blow-by-blow follows.

BOLTON'S LEGACY: A principle reason nuclear proliferation efforts have gone awry is the disturbing incompetence of John Bolton, who was in charge of nonproliferation efforts for the Bush administration. Instead of leading the charge, Bolton consistently undermined efforts in North Korea, Libya and Iran. (Instead of getting fired for his incompetence, Bolton has been nominated by Bush to be ambassador to the United Nations.) Even now, given the opportunity to strengthen U.S. efforts, President Bush is "sending only midlevel officials to the opening of the conference in New York." According to Ambassador Robert Grey, former U.S. Representative to the Conference on Disarmament, his administration has put in little of the diplomatic legwork shown by previous administrations. "I don't know if I've seen things much worse in the field I'm working in," Grey said last month.

WHERE WE WERE: The Non-Proliferation Treaty was built on a simple bargain: the non-nuclear weapons states agreed to forego nuclear weapons in exchange for a commitment on the part of the nuclear weapons states to end their arms race and engage in "good faith" negotiations to achieve nuclear disarmament. With a few notable exceptions, the non-nuclear weapons states have kept their end of the bargain. On the other hand, the nuclear weapons states have shown scant inclination to fulfill their disarmament commitments. Yet both sides of the bargain are critical. "Preventing nuclear proliferation cannot be guaranteed without nuclear disarmament, and nuclear disarmament cannot succeed without preventing nuclear proliferation." And the treaty has worked. "In the 1960s, before the NPT, there were some 23 nations that either had nuclear weapons, had nuclear programs to develop such weapons, or were considering such programs.... Today, counting North Korea and possibly Iran, there are only 10 such countries. We have half the danger that we faced in the 1960s." There are fewer countries in the world with nuclear weapons, fewer countries in the world considering nuclear weapons, and half the number of nuclear weapons in the world as there was 20 years ago. (Center for American Progress Fellow Larry Korb charges in the Boston Globe that in today's climate, it's time to stop wasting money on nuclear bombs.)

WHERE WE ARE NOW: Though vital to global non-proliferation efforts, the NPT has some serious flaws. Currently, countries can acquire technologies that bring them to the very brink of nuclear weapons capability without explicitly violating the treaty, and can then leave the treaty without penalty. Far more stringent limits must be placed on the spread of nuclear technology, as A.Q. Khan's dealings showed. And these improvements must be made immediately. As Joseph Cirincione, director for Non-Proliferation at the Carnegie Endowment, has pointed out, "We are at a nuclear tipping point. The decisions we make over the next couple of years will decide whether that progress continues or whether a new dangerous way of proliferation is launched upon the world.... And if we mishandle this conference, if we don't seize this opportunity at this conference, you could puncture an unrepairable hole in the proliferation balloon." So why are this month's meetings expected to go so poorly?

NUCLEAR POLICY IN SHAMBLES: During last year's presidential debate, President Bush stated that nuclear proliferation was the greatest threat to U.S. national security. Yet today, the administration's nuclear policy is alarmingly incoherent and in shambles. North Korea, which declared its withdrawal from the treaty in 2003 and claims to have built nuclear bombs, said this weekend it was giving up negotiating over its weapons program with a Bush-led United States. Iran, meanwhile, said it will probably restart operations this week related to its disputed uranium enrichment program. The administration's answer? "Keep doing the same thing, only louder," when what's really needed is a serious strategy. Last year, Rep. Dave Hobson (R-OH), chairman of a House Appropriations subcommittee, rejected the administration's plan for nuclear "bunker buster" bombs and asked instead, "What is the administration's overall plan?" John Hamre, president of the Center for Strategic and International Studies, recently noted that "he has yet to get an answer that makes any sense."

NEW NUKES: Meanwhile, the Bush administration is failing to uphold its end of the NPT bargain, developing a new generation of nuclear weapons. On Wednesday, Defense Secretary Donald Rumsfeld pressed Congress to fund research into the "bunker buster" nuclear bomb that was dropped from the budget last year. Despite new reports showing the weapon "could not go deep enough to eliminate fallout" and could kill "from a few hundred to more than a million," Sec. Rumsfeld told senators that further development of the program "makes all the sense in the world." The Bush administration is also actively undermining the Comprehensive Test Ban Treaty -- "the administration's 2005 budget refers for the first time to a list of test scenarios" for nuclear weapons.

IRAQ
'Significant Risk'

In his press conference last week, President Bush was asked if the toll the war in Iraq was taking on the U.S. military would make it difficult to respond to any new global threats. Bush answered: "The person to ask that to, the person I ask that to, at least, is to the Chairman of the Joint Chiefs, my top military advisor. I say, do you feel that we've limited our capacity to deal with other problems because of our troop levels in Iraq? And the answer is, no, he doesn't feel we're limited. He feels like we've got plenty of capacity." Chairman of the Joint Chiefs of Staff Gen. Richard B. Myers, in fact, was asked that question yesterday in his analysis of the Pentagon's ability to deal with new enemies. His response was quite different from the president's. Myers acknowledged the wars in Iraq and Afghanistan had strained the capability of U.S. forces and stressed the military "to a point where it is at higher risk of less swiftly and easily defeating potential foes."

ONGOING CHALLENGE: Last week, Myers admitted the insurgency in Iraq was attacking 50 or 60 times a day in Iraq, back up to violence levels similar to a year ago. (The New York Times describes the new bloodshed as "a surge in insurgent mayhem.") Since last Thursday, when Iraqi lawmakers approved their new Cabinet, about 150 Iraqis and U.S. soldiers have been killed. The unrelenting carnage is taking its toll on U.S. support for President Bush's management of the conflict. According to a new ABC News/Washington Post poll, only 42 percent of Americans approve of how President Bush is handling the war in Iraq. Fifty-six percent disapprove.

ARMOR SHORTAGE: Myers's report also said that while the United States still could win any new wars, there would be higher casualties and more strain on equipment. Equipment shortages have deadly consequences for troops. A quarter of all American deaths in Iraq and Afghanistan -- 400 lives -- were in unarmored vehicles. Last month, the nonpartisan Government Accountability Office reported, "bureaucratic delays within the Army had delayed release of funds" to purchase armor for vehicles. The New York Times last week profiled the experiences of marines from Company E, a unit which lost more than one-third of its 185 troops during a six-month stint in Ramadi, Iraq, last year due in large part to "a lack of armor but also by a shortage of men and planning that further hampered their efforts in battle, destroyed morale and ruined the careers of some of their fiercest warriors."

RECRUITMENT SHORTAGE: The Army is already showing signs of strain, announcing yesterday that it missed its recruiting goals for the third straight month. Recruiters "nationwide obtained less than 60 percent of the April goal of 6,600 new recruits into the active-duty force." Today the Army is 10 percent below its year-to-date target. The Marines also report missing their recruiting goals for the fourth month in a row, bringing them 2 percent shy of their year-to-date target. The Army Reserve has also missed its recruiting targets for the past four months.

QUALITY SHORTAGE: Recruiting for an increasingly unpopular war is a difficult task. According to the New York Times, the ongoing strain on the military has led to a new problem: Army recruiters who are pressured to break the rules. Some recruiters have been busted for squelching mental health and police records. There have been cases of falsified documents, cheat sheets "slipped to applicants before the military's aptitude test." In one case, Army recruiters helped a high school student purchase chemicals to cleanse traces of pot and mushrooms from his system so he could fake out the drug test. Nearly one in five of all recruiters has been caught committing "recruitment improprieties" in 2004; some Army officials say that number is even higher, as for every transgression that is found "at least two more are never discovered." One recruiter said that "one in every three people he had enlisted had a problem that needed concealing, or a waiver." A reason the problem is so widespread: many of the rule breakers are never disciplined. Last year, only three out of every 10 recruiters caught cheating were relieved of duty. Playing fast and loose with qualification rules has serious consequences for the American military, however; many recruiters admit doubts about the quality of some of the soldiers who are destined for the front lines of battle.

WHAT TO DO: In its new report "For Soldier and Country: Saving the All-Volunteer Army," the Center for American Progress outlines what needs to be done to shore up the country's troop levels. First, the Pentagon should add at least 86,000 soldiers to the Army, to "allow the army to add two peacekeeping and stabilization divisions to the force, double the size of the Special Forces, and add more military police, civil affairs personnel, and engineers to the active component." Second, it's crucial to amend backdoor draft policies by "reducing the military service obligation to four years of active service and modifying stop loss so that no solider is extended more than once." Third, the White House must improve pay and benefits for troops and for their families. And finally, it's time to repeal the unworkable "don't ask, don't tell" policy, which is counterproductive to vital military readiness. (Want to help? Tell Congress to expand U.S. ground forces.)

Don't Panic
(Carnegie Analysis, Joseph Cirincione)
http://www.carnegieendowment.org/npp/publi...a=view&id=16840

Friday, April 29
Vice Admiral Lowell Jacoby, Director of the Defense Intelligence Agency, made waves with his Senate testimony April 28, stating that North Korea "has the ability" to both put a nuclear warhead on a missile and deliver a missile all the way to the United States. Senator Hillary Clinton (D-NY), who had conducted the exchange with Jacoby, then put out a press release that led many observers to conclude that North Korea could therefore hit the United States with a nuclear weapon. This is not the case.

North Korea does not have a missile that can hit the United States. This is a theoretical capability, not an operational one. Nor is there any evidence, at least in open sources or leaked classified ones, that North Korea can make a nuclear warhead small enough to fit on a long-range missile. It is also unknown whether any North Korean missile armed with a nuclear warhead would work effectively. Administration officials have since said that the Admiral misspoke, that there was no change in the intelligence assessment, and that "North Korea is still some years away from being able to put nuclear warheads on long-range missiles." We agree.

The NPT at 35: A Crisis of Compliance or a Crisis of Confidence?
(Joshua Williams and Jon B. Wolfsthal, UNA-USA Policy Brief)
http://www.carnegieendowment.org/files/UNA_Policy_Brief.pdf

Friday, April 29
The international system to prevent the spread of nuclear weapons is based on a basic premise: increasing the number of countries in possession of nuclear weapons will directly increase the risk that such weapons will be used. Thus, the vast majority of countries in the world—over 180 of them—have pledged not to acquire nuclear weapons and to allow inspections to ensure their nuclear assets are used only for peaceful purposes. This regime, which also includes five acknowledged nuclear weapon states, is further premised on the pledge that those five countries will work to lower the nuclear threat and that they are unequivocally committed to nuclear disarmament. Thus, the regime, and the treaty at its heart—the Treaty on the Non-Proliferation of Nuclear Weapons (NPT)—rests on three equally important pillars: nonproliferation, disarmament, and the right to peacefully use nuclear technology.

It's Called Nonproliferation
(George Perkovich and Henry Sokolski, Wall Street Journal - Opinion)
http://online.wsj.com/article/0,,SB1114742...%5Fcommentaries.

Friday, April 29
Iran's Foreign Minister Kamal Kharrazi has just stated in no uncertain terms that if today's talks with France, Britain and Germany fail, there will be "no choice but to restart" his country's uranium-enrichment program. The Iranian people, he says, "believe it is their inalienable right to have access to this technology for peaceful purposes."

In February, Hassan Rohani, Iran's national security council secretary, offered to open up Iran's enrichment plants to even more intrusive inspections than those now currently allowed. If this was not acceptable, he suggested that Iran would be willing merely to run a pilot enrichment plant that he claimed would be too small to make even one bomb's worth of highly enriched uranium. He even offered to allow the U.S. to buy up to one-half of Iran's entire nuclear program to build confidence that Iran's program would only be used for peaceful purposes.

These offers are beguiling. They are also bad. The reasons why, though, are likely to remain obscure so long as our diplomats continue to agree with Mr. Kharrazi that all states that are not in violation of the Nuclear Nonproliferation Treaty have a right to make nuclear fuel and that such activity can be monitored to prevent quick diversions to make bombs. In fact, there is no such right and nuclear fuel-making of the sort Iran is planning to engage in still cannot be safeguarded in any meaningful way.

Neighbors Play Down Threat of N.Korea Missile Test
(Jack Kim and Masayuki Kitano, Reuters)
http://www.reuters.com/newsArticle.jhtml?t...storyID=8357436

Monday, May 2
North Korea's suspected missile test at the weekend was not a major worry for the region since it appeared to be a short-range weapon incapable of carrying a nuclear warhead, officials said on Monday. But the test would strain efforts to restart talks on Pyongyang's nuclear programs, they said.

North Korea test-launched what appeared to be a short-range missile into the Sea of Japan on Sunday, U.S. officials said. The test came as Washington officials indicated Pyongyang may be headed toward a nuclear test.

"Is this the kind of missile that can carry a nuclear warhead? Not really," a South Korean government official said on condition of anonymity, referring to Sunday's test.

UN Chief Kofi Annan Warns of Nuclear Catastrophe
(Mark Turner and Guy Dinmore, Financial Times - UK)
http://news.ft.com/cms/s/1102359a-bb3b-11d...000e2511c8.html

Monday, May 2
An international conference on the future of the Nuclear Non-Proliferation treaty opened on Monday with demands from the US and its allies that Iran and North Korea give up and dismantle nuclear programmes that could be adapted to deliver weapons.

Accusing Iran and North Korea--which the US has accused of forming an “axis of evil” - of being in breach of the 1970 treaty, the US delegation reiterated proposals by George W. Bush, US president, for closing NPT “loopholes”.

Kofi Annan, UN secretary-general, warned the 188 parties to the treaty that a nuclear catastrophe would have global consequences. But he also reminded the five nuclear-armed states that are signatories of their duty to make progress in reducing their arsenals.

A Tough Road in Curbing Spread of Nuclear Arms
(Howard LaFranchi, Christian Science Monitor)
http://www.csmonitor.com/2005/0503/p02s02-usgn.html

Tuesday, May 3
First comes the shouting and then, supposedly, the negotiating. As representatives of 189 nations gather in New York to try to stop the spread of nuclear weapons, the world's nuclear haves and have nots are ratcheting up threats accompanying a month-long review of the Nuclear Non-Proliferation Treaty (NPT).

The conference at the United Nations in New York is supposed to come up with new ways of plugging holes in what officials say is an increasingly leaky pipeline of nuclear materials that threaten to spread weapons to new countries.

But finding common ground won't be easy. The United States is seeking to use the conference to focus global attention on the misdeeds of Iran and North Korea. Other countries, especially developing ones, are asserting a right to nuclear energy and pinning any NPT weakness on the nuclear powers for failures on promised disarmament. "The mood is depressed and pessimistic," says Joseph Cirincione, director of the nonproliferation project at the Carnegie Endowment for International Peace in Washington.

Toward a Nuclear Strategy
(John J. Hamre, Washington Post - Opinion)
http://www.washingtonpost.com/wp-dyn/conte...5050100833.html

Monday, May 2
America is sleepwalking through history, armed with nuclear weapons. The Cold War left us with a massive inventory of weapons we no longer need, an infrastructure we can no longer use or maintain, and no thought of where our future lies. A shrinking community of nuclear experts holds on to a massive and aging inventory as a security blanket for a future they cannot define. That same community now advocates the development of a weapon (the so-called Robust Nuclear Earth Penetrator, or RNEP) that commands no conviction from either the military or the broad policy community. In short, we are nowhere.

Last year Congress, led by Rep. Dave Hobson (R-Ohio), chairman of a House Appropriations subcommittee, rejected the administration's plan for RNEP. Hobson rightly asked, "What is the administration's overall plan?" and he has yet to get an answer that makes any sense. The plan he seeks is not some micro-agenda for testing components of a new design but rather a comprehensive plan for keeping America a credible nuclear power in the future. We have now gone a decade without one.