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Snuffysmith
Senate Debates Profits Tax for Oil Companies The Senate is set to vote on whether to consider a windfall profits tax against the five largest U.S. oil companies and rescind $17 billion in tax breaks the companies expect to enjoy over the next decade. The Democrats' energy package also would: make oil and gas price gouging a federal crime, with stiff penalties of up to $5 million during a presidentially declared energy emergency; authorize the Justice Department to bring charges of price fixing against countries that belong to the OPEC oil cartel; and require traders to put up more collateral in the energy futures markets to curb speculation.

Oil Traders Face New Regulation businessweek.com — The dramatic surge in oil prices — including a $16-per-barrel jump in just two days — has left Washington regulators scrambling to exert new oversight on futures trading in oil and other commodities. The U.S. regulatory agency's abrupt shift toward more rigorous oversight in the past two weeks also represents a stark example of how the pinch from high gasoline prices has changed the political landscape and made energy traders prime suspects in congressional inquiries.

OPEC "Powerless" on Price guardian.co.uk — Oil remained close to last week's record high of over $139 a barrel today as Nigeria's oil minister warned that OPEC is powerless to prevent the unprecedented volatility in the market and dismissed calls for an emergency meeting of the oil producers' cartel. OPEC refuses to pump more oil to alleviate the situation, blaming factors beyond its control, including speculation and political tension.

HUD Mortgage Policy Fed The Crisis washingtonpost.com — In 2004, as regulators warned that subprime lenders were saddling borrowers with mortgages they could not afford, the U.S. Department of Housing and Urban Development helped fuel more of that risky lending. The agency required that Freddie Mac and Fannie Mae — two government-chartered mortgage finance firms — purchase far more "affordable" loans made to minority and low-income borrowers. HUD stuck with an outdated policy that allowed Freddie Mac and Fannie Mae to count billions of dollars they invested in subprime loans as a public good that would foster affordable housing. The agency neglected to examine whether borrowers could make the payments on the loans that Freddie and Fannie classified as affordable. From 2004 to 2006, the two purchased $434 billion in securities backed by subprime loans, creating a market for more such lending.

Fed Official Calls for More Regulation washingtonpost.com — A top Federal Reserve official called for sweeping new steps to strengthen government oversight of the financial system, offering the most extensive set of ideas yet from the central bank for how to try to prevent a recurrence of the financial crisis of the last 10 months. Timothy F. Geithner, president of the Federal Reserve Bank of New York and a key engineer of the central bank's response to the crisis, including the rescue of Bear Stearns, said large financial institutions need more capital to guard against the risk of an economic downturn.

Bernanki: Risk of U.S. Downturn 'Diminished' news.bbc.co.uk — The U.S. economy may have avoided a major decline, Federal Reserve Chairman Ben Bernanke has said. At a bankers' conference in Massachusetts, Bernanke said the risk of a substantial downturn had "diminished over the past month or so. He added that despite a recent rise in unemployment, which last month saw its biggest jump in 20 years, a series of reductions in interests rates in the last nine months combined with tax cuts had helped to offset the risks threatening the economy. Bernanke did say, however, that rising energy prices risked pushing up inflation.

Unemployment Pain to Continue money.cnn.com — Unemployment is likely to continue to rise as companies cut more jobs, according to a new index from the Conference Board's Employment Trends Index, which uses eight widely followed readings on employment and economic activity from both government and industry sources. The Conference Board said the decline in the index's May reading suggests that the labor market hasn't yet hit bottom. The organization has computed the index readings back 35 years and found that it accurately predicts all turns in the labor market accurately during that period.
Snuffysmith
ECONOMY
American Dream Unraveling
Today's America is no longer the land of economic optimism it was before the turn of the century. Most Americans feel that the American Dream has unraveled, and "their once steady march toward affluence has derailed." A new USA Today poll finds that 54 percent of those surveyed say "their standard of living is no better today than five years ago," while a recent CNN/Opinion Research poll showed that 78 percent of respondents believe the current state of the nation's economy is poor or very poor. Nineteen percent think the economy is somewhat good, a mere 3 percent say it is very good, and only 46 percent of respondents expect conditions to be somewhat good at this time next year. The Bush administration's economic stimulus package, meant to bolster consumer spending and kick start growth, has instead thus far been used by many Americans to pay off bills and debt, while small businesses and Wall Street are continuing to feel the strain from the weak dollar and inflationary trends.

CONSERVATIVE RESPONSE: President Bush and his key advisers appear to be living in a different America than the rest of us -- an America that is not plagued by stagnant wages, a credit crunch, and crises in both the housing market and the grocery store. Bush's view is that our economy is still "continuing to grow in the face of unprecedented challenges" because it is "large and it's open and flexible." Treasury Secretary Henry Paulson argued that "we are on the right path to resolving market disruptions." But it is the administration's assertion that the economy is improving, even as gas prices skyrocket and consumer spending plummets, remains the most out of touch. White House Press Secretary Dana Perino offered that America's economy has time to sit around waiting for things improve: "We would ask the Congress to act on the things we think would have an impact -- not necessarily an immediate impact, but an impact, nonetheless, so that the future of our economy can continue to grow."

MAIN STREET'S PAIN: The White House seems blind to the realities of Main Street. Middle-class America is experiencing the faltering health of the American economy as costs of health care, housing, transportation, and childcare have been steadily rising above the rate of inflation. From a long-term perspective, public and private investment have remained at consistently low levels, yielding deflated confidence about the future of economic growth. With gas topping $4.00 per gallon, some Americans are spending more than 16 percent of their income on fuel. Soaring costs of food are pushing up grocery bills, prepared meals, school lunches, and even pet food. Over the past year, food prices have increased by 5 percent nationally, the highest annual increase in 20 years. The Labor Department reports that egg prices are up more than 30 percent, dairy prices have jumped 12 percent, and the price of baked goods has risen 9 percent. "The question now is the rate of the increase," says the USDA's Economic Research Service. The housing market is faring no better. With one out of 11 homes facing loan payment problems, "the economy is treading water, and the housing market is one of the undercurrents trying to pull it down," noted Stuart Hoffman, chief economist at PNC Financial Services Group. In the job market, "[t]he economy is now literally at stall speed." Over three million Americans are currently receiving unemployment benefits, and some who have managed to keep their jobs have taken paycuts on average of 10-15 percent. "I believe that we are already in a recession," said billionaire Warren Buffett. "Perhaps not in the sense as defined by economists. ... But people are already feeling the effects of a recession."

WALL STREET'S WORRIES: The Federal Reserve has voiced concern that problems on Wall Street may be getting deeper. Boston Federal Reserve President Eric Rosengren said yesterday that "there was no sign that wage costs were rising to meet higher food and gasoline prices." Dallas Federal Reserve President Richard Fisher worried that the weak U.S. dollar might create a "negative feedback loop" by cutting into growth and raising prices. "I think the inflationary impulses we have are beginning to dampen economic activity," he said. Donald Koln, the Federal Reserve Vice Chair, spelled out the problem's complexity: "Over the coming months, we expect banking institutions to continue to face deteriorating loan quality. House prices are still declining sharply in many localities and losses related to residential real estate -- including loans to builders and developers -- are bound to increase further. In addition, weak economic conditions could well extend problems to other segments of lending portfolios including consumer installment or credit card loans, as well as corporate loan portfolios."

Snuffysmith
Next up - the credit
default swap crisis
As the markets indicate receding concerns over the US subprime mortgage crisis and its follow-on effects, which have impacted global finance for the past year and more, another crisis is ready to emerge, this time in the US$62 trillion market for credit default swaps. - F William Engdahl

http://www.atimes.com/atimes/Global_Economy/JF12Dj03.html
Snuffysmith
Bernanke aggravates
trade deficit risks

US Federal Reserve Board chairman Ben Bernanke's comments suggesting central banks can act to resist an oil-price induced recession distract attention from the consequences of the growing US trade deficit and its causes. That is damaging the US economy and inflicting costs on the workforce. - Peter Morici
Snuffysmith
Paid-up crude ignorance
If oil company chief executives don't know why the price of oil is soaring and US Congressmen don't know, they should get out of their chairs and hand over their jobs to your's truly. Oil costs are rising so much because of irresponsible government spending and irresponsible creation of money by the Federal Reserve to feed that spending. Simple.
Snuffysmith
CREDIT BUBBLE BULLETIN
The cost of credit seizure
The US first-quarter economy was remarkably resilient amid extreme trauma in the credit market and a seized-up securitization market. Release of the US Federal Reserve Board's "flow of funds" credit report for the period helps to reveal the sources of credit that took up the slack. Some of the huge costs associated with propping up a bubble economy are now readily apparent.
Doug Noland looks at the previous week's events each Monday. (Jun 9, '08)

THE WEEK AHEAD
Snuffysmith
Global Confidence Declines as Central Banks Signal Higher Interest Rates Confidence in the global economy fell in June as central banks signaled interest rates may be heading higher, a survey of Bloomberg users on five continents showed.
Snuffysmith
Fed's Fisher Says Any Move to Increase Interest Rates Should Be `Gradual' Any move to increase interest rates to counter rising inflation pressures should be ``very deliberate'' and gradual, Federal Reserve Bank of Dallas President Richard Fisher said.

Bernanke Will `Strongly Resist' Any Surge in U.S. Inflation Expectations Federal Reserve Chairman Ben S. Bernanke said policy makers will ``strongly resist'' any surge in inflation expectations, delivering his clearest message yet the central bank is done lowering interest rates.

Fed, Banks Agree on Credit-Swap Changes to Reduce Risk of Market Collapse Regulators and banks agreed to changes aimed at easing the risk of a collapse in the $62 trillion market for credit-default swaps.

Snuffysmith
Global Inflation's Bite Worsens - WSJ ($) (06/11/2008 05:35 AM)

Concerns on Economy Are Shifting to Inflation - NY Times (06/11/2008 05:40 AM)
Snuffysmith
CHAN AKYA
Lehman and the liars
A fresh crisis at a US investment bank brings to the fore a similar phalanx of deceit and consequences in other corners of the financial markets, ranging from yields on US Treasury bonds to the price of donkeys in Turkey. At the heart of all these events is the unraveling of convenient lies.

MARKET RAP
Mayhem all round
The causes were varied, from fiscal tightening by the Chinese government to tumbling shipping rates hurting shippers in Japan and South Korea. The results were similar - tumbling share prices from Seoul to Mumbai, Hong Kong to Singapore.
R M Cutler runs his eye over the ups and downs in the week's markets.
Snuffysmith
THE MOGAMBO GURU
Investing
made simple

As most "investors" in the stock and bond markets get back less buying power than they invested, thanks to dollar depreciation, investment choice is utterly simple. And it is even simpler when you know that precious metals are the only asset class that moves opposite to stocks and bonds. Or put another way - every cloud has a silver lining.
CREDIT BUBBLE BULLETIN
The cost of credit seizure
The US first-quarter economy was remarkably resilient amid extreme trauma in the credit market and a seized-up securitization market. Release of the US Federal Reserve Board's "flow of funds" credit report for the period helps to reveal the sources of credit that took up the slack. Some of the huge costs associated with propping up a bubble economy are now readily apparent.
Doug Noland looks at the previous week's events each Monday. (Jun 9, '08)

THE WEEK AHEAD
Snuffysmith
Good Times Left Lehman Unprepared for the Bad - Floyd Norris, NY Times
Lehman’s Challenge - Editorial, Financial Times
Oil Prices On A Slippery Slope To Disaster - Carl Mortished, Times of London
Do the Right Thing - Start Drilling - Victor Davis Hanson, RCP
Europe Pulling Euro Down - Nikolaus Piper, New York Sun
Snuffysmith

Tightening a Belt with No Notches Left
by Nicole Colson / June 14th, 2008

Clip coupons. Stop eating at restaurants. Grow a vegetable garden. Learn to do without.

Everywhere you look, the mainstream media–finally waking up to the economic reality facing millions of poor and working-class Americans–are suddenly full of “helpful” suggestions for those feeling the squeeze of rising food prices.

But are platitudes about how best to tighten our belts the answer?

Food inflation is at its worst in more than 17 years today, with prices having risen nearly 5 percent in the past year. The price of staple products is climbing event faster–milk and dried beans are up more than 17 percent; …

(Full article …)
Why is Capitalism Failing Us?
by Doug Page / June 14th, 2008

Our critical human needs are not being met by our capitalist economy that is now pervasive throughout the planet. We humans do not have adequate medical care. A very large percentage of us humans cannot get enough food at a price we can afford, so that millions are dying and millions of others are malnourished. We are spending billions on foreign wars, while billions of people are hungry. It seems obvious that so long as our economic engine is fueled by greed for short term profit, and that the profiteers from this economic engine control our government, …

(Full article …)
Snuffysmith

You Know Something’s Happening: But Do You Know What It Is, Mr. Jones?
by Joseph Danison / June 14th, 2008

Philadelphia Sheriff, John Green, “Doesn’t Do Foreclosures, to Lender’s Dismay”, reports Michael Phillips in the Wall Street Journal on 6/6. There were about 1,000 properties a month in Philadelphia County coming up for sheriff’s auction earlier this year, until March, that is, when Sheriff Green declined to do the court’s dirty work of enforcing these financial contracts.

It should be noted that the county sheriff is the only elected law enforcement office in the land, and therefore not strictly a mercenary gun-for-hire, as federal law enforcement tends to be. …

(Full article …)
Snuffysmith
Re: Chairman's Corner - Tuesday, June 03, 2008
Title: Storing Wealth in Privacy No Longer an Option
Author: Jim Sinclair
A PRIVACY NOTICE

Dear Friends,

What happens in Great Britain happens in the U.S.A. and vice versa. The action reported below erases what semblance of privacy any of us have left.

Think about shares of high quality foreign precious metals companies trading on non-U.S. exchanges. Think about how savvy many Jewish people were in Nazi Germany about protecting their wealth. It was certainly NOT in Swiss banks.

It was done through the purchase of non-German securities registered in their name. They soon disposed of their certificates and later - if in fact they or their families survived the war - picked up or had the shares re-issued.

This invasion of safety deposit boxes in Great Britain is quite a serious event and throws a major spanner into any hope for bullion safe deposits with a guarantee of privacy.

Sincerely,

Jim Sinclair

Safety deposit box raids yield £1bn of drugs, cash and guns
By Richard Edwards, Crime Correspondent
Last updated: 11:27 PM BST 02/06/2008


Police have seized a potential £1 billion "treasure trove" of cash, drugs and guns in an unprecedented raid on concrete vaults holding 7,000 safety deposit boxes.

Scotland Yard believe the operation may unlock clues to every layer of serious crime in Britain - including murders, shootings, drug trafficking, fraud and paedophile gangs.

Metropolitan Police Assistant Commissioner John Yates said: "Each box will be treated as a crime scene in its own right."

More than 300 officers and staff were involved in simultaneous raids at three depots in London's Park Lane, Hampstead and Edgware. Officers have secured the concrete and steel vaults and will take several weeks to remove each box, using angle grinders, to a secret location where they will be prized open with diamond-tipped drills.

It is believed that a top tier of criminal masterminds may have rented out "the majority" of the boxes.

The safe-keeping company - Safe Deposit Centres Ltd - has been operating for more than 20 years.

Two directors of the firm have been arrested.

They are Jacqueline Swan, 44, who was arrested at the Mayfair address, and Leslie Sieff, 60, who was detained in Hampstead. A third director, Milton Woolf, 52, is believed to be abroad. Both men are from South Africa originally but have been residents in the UK since the 1980s.

Although the operation is being treated as a money laundering investigation senior officers admitted that there was a potential to uncover a massive range of "ill-gotten gains" stored at the depots, including expensive jewellery, computer data, stolen artworks and sculptures.

Some of the boxes are only A4-sized, while others are "walk-in" vaults.


more...
Snuffysmith
THE MOGAMBO GURU
A phantom increase in income
It's all about money - and lies. Like the US Commerce Department claiming that incomes have gone up 0.2%, including rebates it hasn't even sent out yet. Or banks and securities firms failing to acknowledge at least US$35 billion of additional writedowns included in their balance sheets. Lies, lies, lies!!!
Snuffysmith
CREDIT BUBBLE BULLETIN
Stage II predicaments
The US Federal Reserve's aggressive "reflation" is being stopped dead as higher market yields force another round of speculative de-leveraging in the mortgage credit market. Yet a bullish consensus, encouraged in no small part by Fed chairman Ben Bernanke, is developing that the worst of the crisis is behind us. It is not.
Doug Noland looks at the previous week's events each Monday.

THE WEEK AHEAD
Snuffysmith
Inflation in Europe Accelerates More Than Estimated to Highest in 16 Years European inflation accelerated to the highest in 16 years last month as food and energy costs soared, intensifying what finance ministers from the world's richest nations said is becoming a ``more complicated'' dilemma.

Paulson, Darling Face `Stagflation' Risk as Commodities Rise, Growth Slows Finance ministers from the world's richest nations face another week of inflation headlines after signaling concern that the global economy risks a dose of stagflation as commodity prices soar.

Snuffysmith
Corn Climbs to Record as Midwest Floods Threaten U.S. Crops; Soybeans Gain Corn climbed to a record near $8 a bushel as storms pounded crops in the U.S., the largest producer and exporter, and caused what may be the worst flooding in the Midwest since 1993.

Bear Market in Treasuries Worsens as Yields Fail to Keep Up With Inflation The bear market for U.S. government bonds that began three months ago is just getting started.

Snuffysmith
DAVID HALE
The Fed, the Dollar and Wider Price Concerns ft.com — The Fed can no longer carry the full burden for containing the housing slump. The White House and Congress must intervene with new policies to prevent a further upsurge in defaults and loan losses, or they may have to consider legislation mandating the government to assist in the recapitalization of the U.S. banking system with public money for the first time since the 1930s. If Congress does not want to be forced to rescue U.S. banks in 2009, it must stabilize the housing market in 2008. The dollar will only recover when housing does. MIKE LILLIS
What Happened to Housing? washingtonindependent.com — It took just days for Congress and the White House to agree on a tax rebate strategy. By contrast, the housing crisis is far more complex — and far more contentious — relegating progress to a crawl. The delicate negotiations could mean that federal help for struggling homeowners won't arrive until late in the year — too late for tens of thousands of families facing foreclosure.
Snuffysmith
Unfolding Financial Meltdown on Wall Street - by Dr. Ellen Brown - 2008-06-15 What’s The Difference Between Lehman Brothers & Bear Stearns? Lehman’s CEO Sits On the Board Of The NY Fed
Snuffysmith
Fed actions risk deeper crisis
US Federal Reserve chairman Ben Bernanke's need for lower interest rates to stimulate the US economy conflict with the Treasury's need for a strong dollar to deal with runaway oil prices. The Fed should recognize that its actions are misguided. The potential harm of a sustained weak dollar can make the credit crisis look like a minor storm. - Henry C K Liu
Snuffysmith
THE BEAR'S LAIR
The murder of US manufacturing
The air of inevitability shrouding the long decline of manufacturing in the US - epitomized by GE's decision to sell its appliances business - masks the cause of its death. Bad management and misplaced investment resulted in blue-collar jobs leaking away, not cheap foreign labor - Martin Hutchinson
Snuffysmith
THE MOGAMBO GURU
Silver a salve for miserable times
Misery inflation is climbing along with money prices, unemployment and data-massaging. The good news is that intelligent investing might be on the increase too, if demand for silver eagles and other hoardable joys is a measure.
Snuffysmith
CREDIT BUBBLE BULLETIN
Stage II predicaments
The US Federal Reserve's aggressive "reflation" is being stopped dead as higher market yields force another round of speculative de-leveraging in the mortgage credit market. Yet a bullish consensus, encouraged in no small part by Fed chairman Ben Bernanke, is developing that the worst of the crisis is behind us. It is not. (Jun 16, '08)
Snuffysmith
MARKET RAP
Mayhem all round
The causes were varied, from fiscal tightening by the Chinese government to tumbling shipping rates hurting shippers in Japan and South Korea. The results were similar - tumbling share prices from Seoul to Mumbai, Hong Kong to Singapore. (Jun 13, '08)
R M Cutler runs his eye over the ups and downs in the week's markets.
Snuffysmith
Time is up for Friedman
The loss of the wage-bargaining powers of workers in the United States since the 1970s means the US Federal Reserve's low interest-rate policy does not carry the threat of driving up inflation. That reality means it is time at last to discard Milton Friedman's theory on unemployment and rewrite economic textbooks to fit the facts. - Thomas I Palley
Snuffysmith
THE MOGAMBO GURU
Numbers, greed without limit
The arrival of quadrillions in derivatives mathematics means US$10 million is being bet for every private sector worker in the US! That's scary enough to distract anyone from the ugly silver tricks being operated by banks.
CREDIT BUBBLE BULLETIN
Stage II predicaments
The US Federal Reserve's aggressive "reflation" is being stopped dead as higher market yields force another round of speculative de-leveraging in the mortgage credit market. Yet a bullish consensus, encouraged in no small part by Fed chairman Ben Bernanke, is developing that the worst of the crisis is behind us. It is not. (Jun 16, '08)
Doug Noland looks at the previous week's events each Monday.

THE WEEK AHEAD

MARKET RAP
Mayhem all round
The causes were varied, from fiscal tightening by the Chinese government to tumbling shipping rates hurting shippers in Japan and South Korea. The results were similar - tumbling share prices from Seoul to Mumbai, Hong Kong to Singapore. (Jun 13, '08)
Snuffysmith
Dangers - Danger Period 2008 and 2009

By Chris Laird
Jun 19 2008 10:08AM

www.prudentsquirrel.com

Over the years, I have used gold market behavior to track economic and political trends. The overall effect was a good take on gold markets and on currencies, which was the intent from the beginning.

We have some rather ominous conclusions about the Summer and Fall of 2008. They are economic as well as geopolitical. The actual gold focus becomes more of a point of reference, as it reacts to events that seem to be readying to occur. In addition, we foresee some rather scary trends for the entire world, going into 09. We are not going to cover all of this in this article, but to give a basic overview.

First of all, let’s list some of these dangers and danger periods that we foresee coming.

  • The US and Israel are getting ready to do something about the newly militant Iran. The nuclear debate is only one dimension of that issue. Another is the threat that Iran is becoming too big a bully to the other more moderate Mid East nations, and not just Israel.
  • There is a very large unease again building in the world financial markets. Not only is the credit crisis not really improving (new estimates out now that financial institutions are looking at $1.3 trillion of losses) but world financial markets are actually way down over the last year. Many Asian markets and also many US stocks are down 30% and more. A building unease is accumulating that can only lead to another real big world financial sell off, lasting probably up to a month, before any settling comes in after a month long bout of central bank firefighting efforts.
  • Rising inflation is unsettling financial markets, as it is unsettling the US and EU central banks. A serious friction has developed that the ECB is not coordinating efforts with the US Fed, as the ECB fights inflation, and the Fed focuses on preventing a total world financial meltdown. So far, these efforts are rather contrary to each other. The dissention is unsettling financial markets.
  • Intolerably high energy and food prices. Disastrous floods in the US Mid West grain belts are going to lead to a world food crisis in 09. We have only seen hints of this in 08. World inflation will be seriously increased in the entire world as a result. The Chinese are particularly vulnerable to this issue.
There are more dimensions to this but well stop there.

Outcomes

The results of these economic and political pressures are likely to be:

  • A significant risk (well over 50%, meaning more likely than not) of serious world stock and financial problems over the Summer. This makes a much higher risk of a real world financial and stock meltdown exceeding a 20% drop going into the Fall.
  • We have an expectation that Israel is going to act as soon as this Summer, but by Jan 09 roughly, to do something significant to stem the Iranian nuclear problem. Israel has repeatedly stated publicly in the past that they will never tolerate a radical Islamic nation to achieve the nuclear bomb. We believe them.
  • Friction between the US Fed and the ECB over inflation policy destabilizes the markets and make a real financial panic much more likely. It is not clear the central banks will be able to pull off another ‘Bear Stearns’ type emergency bailout fast enough if there is a new huge financial meltdown emerging. So far, those efforts have succeeded in part, but all this means is one that more bullet has been dodged. How many times can they do that?
  • A likelihood of political turmoil in many nations over the food situation. For example, Argentina is in the middle of an incredible battle between farmers and the government’s policies to tax/tariff agricultural exports. The months long battle between farmers and truckers who are paralyzing their economy and a totally unrelenting government may lead to a revolution there. Other nations such as Egypt, China, and India tried to reduce budget busting food and energy subsidies but had to pull back on subsidy reductions due to widespread riots.
  • China is exhibit number one in vulnerability to a food and energy shortage. There is one thing above all that China fears, that is a big viral insurrection involving the 800 million disenfranchised rural peasants. The rising food and energy prices worldwide are hammering the world’s poorest, who already spend over 50% of their $2 a day income on food. The rising food and energy prices are causing worldwide riots as of now, in many disparate places, from the richer EU region, to poor Asia, to India, to South America. 09 does not look good in this respect.
  • The prospects of the world having a record grain harvest in 2008 are rapidly diminishing. Although it’s stated that China may have record harvests this year, the US, the world’s biggest grain exporter, is seeing widespread damage to its grain crops. Without the US ability to continue huge grain exports into 09, the world will face new grain export restrictions by many other grain exporters. This will lead to a real world food crisis into 09. There is no bigger factor that will lead to world destabilization than food shortages.
  • The commodity markets will continue to drive prices up, and big investment funds will continue to pump billions into these markets, making prices shoot higher. There will be a big controversy over financial gains in energy and food commodities into 09.
  • A new US president will likely be tested by some military related threat. That is a typical cycle, and it’s coming in 09 as well.
Some serious doubts about the EU and the Euro

The list of dangers goes on, but we also see some risk that the Euro will lose credibility if there is continued strife over EU political organization. In addition, the weaker South EU nations are in a big controversy with the stronger North (Germany) over the direction of inflation fighting. The weaker EU economies cannot tolerate a strong Euro, while Germany staunchly resists inflationary policies. We foresee some kind of break between the two factions going into 09.

A very curious story came out this week about Germans shunning non German EU Euro notes, trading out the ones from the weaker southern nation EU mints, based on the two letter mint codes on the note serial numbers. That can lead to retaliation by the other country’s people, and is a very viral thing that could spread rapidly and severely harm the credibility of the Euro.

Crash risk in Summer/Fall 08

Overall, we believe that this Summer will lead to moderate market turmoil, followed by severe market turmoil in the Fall and Winter 08 as market sentiments deteriorate. It does not help that the Royal Bank of Scotland just issued a world market crash alert this week. Nor does it help that Morgan just put out a report that there is a big risk of a financial ‘catastrophic event’ due to the ECB fighting the Fed regarding interest rates and monetary policy…

“We see striking similarities between the transatlantic tensions that built up in the early 1990s and those that are accumulating again today. The outcome of the 1992 deadlock was a major currency crisis and a recession in Europe," said a report by Morgan Stanley's European experts…” –Morgan

The PrudentSquirrel Newsletter is our financial and gold commentary. We have been tracking these issues for all of 2008 for subscribers. We will continue closely monitoring these issues this Summer, and rest of the year, in the weekly subscriber newsletter and with subscriber alerts.

I had one potential subscriber ask me if the newsletter has much more content than these public articles, ie, if it was worth subscribing. The answer is that the public articles have less than 10% of our research and conclusions that subscribers see, not to mention the subscriber email alerts of important breaking financial news. We have anticipated many significant market moves in the last year, such as imminent drops in world stock markets within days of them happening, and big swings in the gold markets within days of them occurring. We have also made a number of good calls on big currency swings, such as with the USD, the Euro and the Yen.

We invite you to stop by our site and have a look.

Christopher Laird
Editor-in-Chief
www.PrudentSquirrel.com


Snuffysmith
Asset-price Inflation is Giving Way to Debt Deflation

The Game is Over. There Won't Be a Rebound

By Mike Whitney

Bernanke is merely being polite in not rubbing the faces of European and Asian governments in the fact that unless they are willing to make a structural break and change the world monetary system radically, they will remain powerless to avoid giving the United States a free ride – including a free ride for its military spending and war in the Near East. Continue

Snuffysmith
China steel pipes
in US cross hairs

The US International Trade Commission's decision to back tariffs of up to 700% on Chinese-made circular steel pipes establishes the firm precedent that US companies harmed by Chinese subsidies can seek countervailing tariffs to offset China's mercantilist advantage. It also has implications for the US presidential race. - Peter Navarro

CREDIT BUBBLE BULLETIN
Good inflation?
Students of the sordid history of inflation know well the inevitable pleas for "just a little bit more" inflation. Pimco managing director Paul McCulley and other inflationists do not recognize that inflationism is a road to ruin. This road has become all too visible.
Doug Noland looks at the previous week's events each Monday.

THE WEEK AHEAD

The Fed unreserved
The US Treasury secretary's wish to give the Federal Reserve new powers to oversee the financial services industry ignores the central bank's history over the past 50 years and the grim consequences for the average US citizen. The move is tantamount to giving the fox complete autonomy to guard the henhouse. - Peter Schiff
Snuffysmith
THE MOGAMBO GURU
Too much for a fiat currency
US central bank chief Ben Bernanke was stretching more than a point by claiming higher oil prices were driving up the risk of inflation, but rectifying the Federal Reserve's absence of moral commitment to maintaining the value of money is not a solution. The constitution had it right all along - no fiat currency. Oil as a monetary base will do, but gold is less messy.
Snuffysmith
US regulator
needs regulation

The present financial crisis has been attributed to growing complexity and innovation in the financial system. But when lenders take higher risks due to high liquidity and low interest rates, the blame should fall on the central bank. Failure to bring the US Federal Reserve Bank into the realm of orthodox, transparent and fully stable banking practices will have a cost that is immeasurable. - Hossein Askari and Noureddine Krichene

THE BEAR'S LAIR
A new model for nastiness
Economists seeking parallels with the darkening crisis in the United States and other countries turn to the inflation-hit 1970s and depression-struck 1930s for comparison. Neither is apt. The likelihood is for a global downturn combining both, along with the geopolitical hazards that emerged from the Great Depression. Not an appealing prospect. - Martin Hutchinson

SPEAKING FREELY
Are they really oil wars?
A widely cited factor behind recent United States wars of choice is oil, opponents of the conflicts citing, conflictingly, both Washington's desire for cheap fuel and Big Oil's wish for high prices and profits. Even as speculators and the Peak Oil theory are thrown into the mix of explanations behind recent record prices, it is evident such views fall short of reality. - Ismael Hossein-zadeh
Snuffysmith
Untouched water
It is a no-brainer: spend US$11 billion a year to meet global water requirements and get back $84 billion while helping 20% of the world's people access potable water, and preventing up to 2 million children dying annually from water-related illnesses.Yet the US presidential candidates ignore the chance to change the course of history.

THE MOGAMBO GURU
Inflation in spades
The latest US producer price index data were enough to make blood run cold, if it wasn't already frozen in fear at the thought of stagnant wages, government spending out of control and record debts of every kind. And if you thought we looked doomed, now we are also technically bankrupt. But we still have a choice.
Snuffysmith
Mike Whitney
Gas Price Gouging: Don't Blame the Saudis
Snuffysmith
Citigroup to Cut 10% of Investment Banking Jobs The New York bank has suffered $15 billion in losses over the past two quarters,is likely to rack up billions of dollars in additional write-downs in the second quarter, this week will dismiss thousands of investment-banking employees world-wide as part of a plan to cut the roughly 65,000-employee group by 10%. Across Wall Street, banks are adjusting as they deal with drop-offs in everything from mergers to public offerings.

Snuffysmith
U.S. Consumer Confidence Drops to 16-Year Low on Fuel Prices, Housing Woes Confidence among Americans dropped to the lowest level in 16 years and house prices fell the most on record, raising the risk that consumers will cut back on purchases after spending their tax rebates.

Wall Street Banks Should Avoid `Dependence' on Fed, Treasury's Ryan Says The U.S. Securities and Exchange Commission, responding to losses on top-rated mortgage securities, will push investment funds to rely on criteria such as an asset's liquidity and risk instead of credit rankings.

Greenspan Says `Crisis' in Worldwide Financial Market May Extend Into 2009 Former Federal Reserve Chairman Alan Greenspan said the credit seizure that has roiled the securities industry since August may persist into next year even as the Fed has reduced the instability of financial markets.

Snuffysmith
THE MOGAMBO GURU
Economic egomaniacs
With the US Federal Reserve creating money at a cancerous rate and total US government taxation consuming half of all incomes, how can a country with so many schools and universities be so brain-dead as to believe such idiocy is even possible? That is something for those well-educated to think about as they lose their jobs.
CREDIT BUBBLE BULLETIN
Good inflation?
Students of the sordid history of inflation know well the inevitable pleas for "just a little bit more" inflation. Pimco managing director Paul McCulley and other inflationists do not recognize that inflationism is a road to ruin. This road has become all too visible. (Jun 23, '08)
Doug Noland looks at the previous week's events each Monday.

THE WEEK AHEAD
Snuffysmith
Bernanke's words strike false note
US Federal Reserve chief Ben Bernanke on Tuesday sounded chirpy on growth, gave a nod to inflationary concerns - and kept interest rates steady. The markets, awake to the overwhelmingly grim data on jobs, prices and even bank stocks, don't think he means a single word he says. Next time, he'll have to come through with some action. - Julian Delasantellis

Cheerleaders turn
backs on reality

American investors are beginning to understand that the United States faces stagflation, recession and financial inflation at the same time. Yet as the markets have the threat of major declines, don't look for any TV pundits to tell you this. They are too busy shaking their pom-poms. - John Browne

Oil speculators leave
giveaway footprint

The role of speculators in the present oil-price spike, denied by some economists, is nevertheless identifiable. Implementing regulations to curb that role will be an uphill struggle, given conventional economic wisdom, but some unilateral populist action is possible. - Thomas I Palley
Snuffysmith
Economics to scare the kids
Even our children can quickly understand the horrific manner in which the US Federal Reserve has abused its position and wrecked the economy by churning out too much money. Understating inflation is only part of it. You hear those screams?
CREDIT BUBBLE BULLETIN
Good inflation?
Students of the sordid history of inflation know well the inevitable pleas for "just a little bit more" inflation. Pimco managing director Paul McCulley and other inflationists do not recognize that inflationism is a road to ruin. This road has become all too visible. (Jun 23, '08)
Snuffysmith
Fed Keeps Benchmark Rate at 2%, Ending Most Aggressive Easing Since 1980s The Federal Reserve kept its benchmark rate at 2 percent and warned that faster inflation may accompany some strengthening of the economy.

Bernanke's Inflation Cure Loses Potency as Higher Oil Boosts Import Costs What's good news for U.S. businesses may turn out to be bad news for Federal Reserve Chairman Ben S. Bernanke's fight against inflation.

Snuffysmith
It's Gonna Take More Than Just the Fedby Doug FabianToday's Fed decision was widely expected, but what was more important to most market watchers, including myself, was the Fed's verbiage on inflation. In its statement, the Fed cited increasing inflationary pressures caused by rising oil and other commodity prices. The central bank also said that the rate cuts it already has made should help lead to improved economic growth ahead...

Six Ways in Which the World is Different from the Way You Think It Is by Nicholas A. VardyAs I follow economic developments across the globe, I am always on the lookout for novel insights that buck conventional wisdom. And I continue to be astonished at how some of the leading minds across a wide range of fields not only buy into but feed the media's current agenda and spin on the issues of the day. The facts are only a mouse click away.

The "Bear"-er of Bad Newsby Doug FabianThe report by the bank's research team also warned that the S&P 500 index was likely to fall by more than 300 points to around 1,050 by September as "all the chickens come home to roost" from the excesses of the global boom. And you thought that I was bearish!
Snuffysmith
MARKET RAP
Friday morning massacre
Things could be worse in Asian markets - and it looks like they will be after the impact of the overnight plunge on Wall Street shuddered through the region, dislodging any semblance of calm seen in the preceding days.
R M Cutler runs his eye over the ups and downs in the week's markets.
Snuffysmith
Love and hate
We love inflation as it drives up prices for assets like stocks and hate it as goodies we also love are driven out of reach. That means more aggro from the kids and the rest of our nearest and dearest who want to get their grubby hands on our wallets.
Snuffysmith
We Can't Legislate Away Market Losses - Vikram Pandit, Wall St. Journal
Why Congress Believes in Oil 'Speculation' - Paul Krugman, NY Times
Detroit's Carmakers Seem to Be Imploding - Healey & Carty, USA Today
Conrad Black's Legal Tragedy Is Over - Raymond de Souza, National Post
Microsoft and the Meaning of Bill Gates - The Economist
Snuffysmith
Does The Housing Bubble Have To Pop? - D. Baker & R. Kuttner, Am Prospect
The Slow Motion Recession Re-visited - John Mauldin, Frontline Thoughts
Phil Gramm: The Return of Dr. No - Stephen Moore, Wall Street Journal
An Anti-Stagflation Strategy: Move Back Home - Tim Harford, FT
America's Infrastructure: The Cracks Are Showing - The Economist
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