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Snuffysmith
CREDIT BUBBLE BULLETIN
Just the facts
A tough week for US stocks saw transports and utilities lead the Dow down more than 4% and the S&P 500 3%. Also heading down is the US housing market, with the median price of an existing home in California tumbling 35% in May from a year earlier. Amid an increasingly grim outlook, gold headed in the opposite direction.
Doug Noland looks at the previous week's events each Monday.

THE WEEK AHEAD
Snuffysmith
SPENGLER
How to stop the Great Crash of '08
The United States can still break out of its economic death spiral. Tax changes and higher interest rates are a start. And let overseas funds buy American banks. While investors are waiting for that to happen - it won't - they would do best to sit back and watch the horrors unfold.
Snuffysmith
THE MOGAMBO GURU
Funding the Bacchanalian excess
Ancient Romans knew all about excessive indulgence in life's pleasures, but where for the Romans death was preferable to abandoning a lifestyle they could no longer afford, today's gorgers at the government trough will elect politicians to continue the feast, regardless of the cost.
CREDIT BUBBLE BULLETIN
Just the facts
A tough week for US stocks saw transports and utilities lead the Dow down more than 4% and the S&P 500 3%. Also heading down is the US housing market, with the median price of an existing home in California tumbling 35% in May from a year earlier. Amid an increasingly grim outlook, gold headed in the opposite direction.
Doug Noland looks at the previous week's events each Monday. (Jun 30, '08)

THE WEEK AHEAD
Snuffysmith
A poisoned chalice
Senator Barack Obama is in celebratory mood as the White House appears within his and the Democratic Party's reach. Yet tackling and even resolving the US and global economic crisis over the next four years may cast any eventual victor of the presidential election and his winning party into political oblivion for the foreseeable future. - James Cumes

THE BEAR'S LAIR
Infrastructure's inefficiencies
Condemnation of the state of US infrastructure in the wake of recent flooding of the Mississippi River overlooks the political and financial obstacles facing big-spending projects. The problem is one of US economic structure, and it urgently needs to be solved.- Martin Hutchinson

Intervention will not
stop dollar's slide

The US Federal Reserve's optimism in regard to the inflation outlook masked a fear of a continued slide in the dollar, even if it raised rates. And with foreign currency reserves less than those of Poland, and allies with no reason to intervene on its behalf, the US Treasury has little to counter such a slide. - Peter Schiff
Snuffysmith
More bats and a bigger budget
US Treasury Secretary Henry Paulson's claim that "our nation has come to expect the Federal Reserve to step in to avert events that pose unacceptable systemic risk" is entirely, entirely wrong. It is supposed to protect the dollar - and has failed. So why give it more power? Do you smell corruption?
CREDIT BUBBLE BULLETIN
Just the facts
A tough week for US stocks saw transports and utilities lead the Dow down more than 4% and the S&P 500 3%. Also heading down is the US housing market, with the median price of an existing home in California tumbling 35% in May from a year earlier. Amid an increasingly grim outlook, gold headed in the opposite direction.
Doug Noland looks at the previous week's events each Monday. (Jun 30, '08)
Snuffysmith
The Fed Fiddles While Financial System Smolders - Steve Forbes, Forbes
Credit Crunch: Better Sharp than Drawn-Out - D. Wighton, Times of London
Lehman's Deals Leave Public in Dark - Jonathan Weil, Bloomberg
Bearish Battalions Invade World Markets - The Economist
The Economy? Words Fail Me. - Dana Milbank, Washington Post
Snuffysmith
THE MOGAMBO GURU
Inflation under the covers
Talk of nipping inflation in the bud is leaving things a little late. As measured in 1974, price inflation now is at 13%, which is to say in full flower and spreading its tendrils ever wider. As for the supposedly non-existent wage-price inflation - it's all around.
CREDIT BUBBLE BULLETIN
Just the facts
A tough week for US stocks saw transports and utilities lead the Dow down more than 4% and the S&P 500 3%. Also heading down is the US housing market, with the median price of an existing home in California tumbling 35% in May from a year earlier. Amid an increasingly grim outlook, gold headed in the opposite direction.
Snuffysmith
THE ROVING EYE
Big Oil's 'secret'
out of Iraq's closet

The Iraqi war's worst-kept secret saw daylight this week with a report on the role US government-led advisers played in drawing up contracts for Western oil companies to develop Iraqi oil fields. The big prize is still being pursued, as is the White House's other dream - a US$7.6 billion, 1,600-kilometer pipeline through Afghanistan. - Pepe Escobar

CHAN AKYA
The gullible
and the greedy

Cringe-worthy analysis by luminaries ranging from the Bank for International Settlements to the Indian finance minister shows fundamental misunderstanding of market mechanisms. Yet with so-called experts from investment banks and rating agencies found wanting in their basic responsibilities, other participants have plenty of leeway to mumble-swerve.

MARKET RAP
Down is a four-letter word
A common trend (downward) ran through Asia's markets this week, with a common undertone of increasing volatility, notably in Mumbai. Several key indexes are now nudging towards significant support levels, after which the precipice beckons.
R M Cutler runs his eye over the ups and downs in the week's markets.

COMMENT
West's loss of Gulf
funds East's gain

Moves by Western countries, including the United States and Germany, to restrict investments by the Gulf's sovereign wealth funds threaten to rebound to the benefit of Eastern economies.
Snuffysmith
OpEdNews

Original Content at http://www.opednews.com/articles/Fortis-Pr...-080629-98.html

July 2, 2008

Fortis Prediction of US Bank Meltdown a Net Hoax: The Making of an Urban Legend

By Paul Haughey

This article documents how an urban legend got started the weekend of June 28-29, 2008, how and why urban legends spread virally, and what you can do to spot them and stop them.

On Sunday, June 29, I received several forwarded articles alleging a large European banking conglomerate predicted a United States financial "meltdown" within coming weeks.

The forwarded story led me to a blog, not a news site, which alleged to provide a one paragraph abbreviation of the story, introduced by the statement "I was shocked to read the following, which was posted 4 hours ago...".

The article alleges that Fortis chairman, Maurice Lippens, expects 6,000 US banks to file for bankruptcy in coming weeks. It mentions that even large financial institutions, such as Citigroup and General Motors, will also be affected, and these events will start a complete financial meltdown in the United States.

STORY DOES NOT HOLD UP TO SCRUTINY


A quick internet search revealed the same abbreviated "article" -- only one paragraph long, with the exact same introductory statement -- has been posted on 269 other blogs and discussion boards. Most of these discussion boards allow anonymous posts, with no accountability required by the poster or author (such as the Sean Hannity fan site, the Ron Paul discussion board, etc). The story can also be found on Digg and other viral marketing and web ring sites, and I predict that you will probably see this many more times, on discussion boards or in emails, for months or years to come.

Most posts also claim that the original story was written in Dutch, and a few even contained a dead link to the alleged original story on Da Telegraaf, a Dutch news submission site. After searching the Da Telegraaf site, I was able to find the original story, which was submitted anonymously. It had no author, it sited no source, it came from no news syndicate (such as Reuters or Associated Press), and it was submitted to no news syndicates.

My first reaction to the story was that it contained all the elements of a net rumor or an urban legend, the kind my grandfather likes to forward to me: Bill Gates will give you $1,000 for forwarding his email; Obama isn't really a US citizen; undocumented Mexican laborers are going to get $1 trillion in free US health care but you are not; car jackers are going to steal your car by putting a flyer on your window; etc.

I next searched every legitimate news site I could think of, including press release sites, blogs or personal web sites by Fortis directors or employees, interviews, oral or written public statements, etc. I found no predictions of 6,000 bankruptcies.

THE REAL FORTIS STORY


Now, I am the first person to distrust mainstream news sources. And for years, I have said that the economic policies of the Bush administration are not sustainable, and we are headed towards a huge collapse. In fact, we are already seeing many elements of that collapse. However, this story appears to be nothing more than a net hoax, designed to inspire fear.

Fortis did in fact issue a press release last Friday, summarizing its efforts to raise capital over the last few weeks (1.5 billion euros) to protect itself against potential crash of hedge funds (particularly oil speculators). This is actually good news for most US consumers.

In early June, financial genius and progressive activist George Soros testified before Congress that oil prices have reached an artificial high of $140 per barrel. His opinion, and the opinion of experts throughout the industry, is that the price has been driven up artificially by futures market and other speculators, and just like the tech market correction/crash of the late 1990's, the oil market will soon correct itself down to the real price of $80-90 per barrel. This will most likely result in a price reduction at the pump, possibly a dollar per gallon or more.

Additionally, oil consumption has been slowing down over the past months, and for the first time in years, demand is lower than supply. Fortis's efforts have been simply to raise real money, to protect itself against artificially overpriced hedge funds.


THE ANATOMY OF AN URBAN LEGEND

Before my career in the nonprofit sector, I was trained as a researcher at the University of Kansas. Moreover, I earned a Master's Degree (with honors) in Religious Studies, where we were trained extensively in research methodology, including folklore, legends, and mythology. As I read this story, and look at the way it is spreading, I realize that though the delivery system (the internet) is relatively new, this story has many of the same elements as folklore and legends that are thousands of years old:

-It comes from a "reputable" source


Fortis is a company that most of us vaguely recognize as a world leader in the banking industry, but aren't quite sure what they do. In fact, all legends and folklore site experts or some slightly unknown reputable source (my friend's uncle is an engineer, this was written by a corporate insider, etc). Even the Gospel of Luke begins with a claim that the author has considered all the statements of eye witnesses, all the texts, and all other sources of information before writing his version of events.

-The expert is foreign (preferably European), and the original story is not in English


Not only was the source in Dutch, there were no English translations available, outside the one paragraph summary by the discussion board poster(s). This actually adds perceived credibility to the story. Americans tend to resent Europeans, yet trust their experts. We all seem to know, for example, that the Europeans have been driving hybrid cars and using solar and wind power for 30 years, yet this technology seems to be withheld from us.

This also begs additional question about the original poster(s) who coincidentally first noticed the story at the exact same time (4 hours ago): were all of these people bilingual Dutch-English readers? If not, how were they able to summarize the story for us, in the exact same manner? And lastly, English is the official business language in Western Europe - why would an international bank issue a press release in Dutch?

-It feeds on existing fears and insecurities


Most urban legends are based on economic fears, racial fears, fears or anxieties about technology or the future, fears or anxieties of gays or women, etc. It's not exactly a secret that most of us have been negatively affected by the slumping economy of the past 7 years, and by outrageous gas prices.

-A sense of awe and shock, and/or a secret story that was leaked


Ironically, urban legends feed on the notion that we are being hurt by misinformation or lack of information. This is a huge enticement to coerce many of us into action (or non-action). As psychologist John Bradshaw has said, many of us are still "stuck" in childhood anxieties, installed by our parents and guardians. Think about it: the most popular net rumors are the things that were the source of family secrets and anxiety when we were children: sex, gender issues, money, the future, etc. It is not difficult to manipulate people with more misinformation if you can find an unhealed nerve and touch on it.

-Sense of urgency


This story alleges that this story broke just 4 hours ago, and predicts the market will crash within weeks. This sense of urgency encourages us to read more, to share with friends, to sell all our stocks...to do something, anything, before checking out the facts.

-Details are vague and sketchy


I find it highly unlikely that a press release by a huge international firm like Fortis would make such a bold claim, even if it were true. Nonetheless, an authentic, savvy press release would include facts with details, names of banks and branches likely to be affected, etc. None of these elements were present in this story.

-It spread over the weekend


Be suspect of stories that "break" over the weekend. This is a trick used extensively by tricksters such as Karl Rove, because businesses typically cannot respond or react over the weekend, and news rooms are covering issues from previous week, not today's news.

If you look at the "whisper campaigns" started by Karl Rove in past election cycles, such as John McCain's "love child" rumor in the 2000 primaries, and the John Kerry swift boat and Navy medal rumors in 2004, they were all started over the weekend. They spread like wildfire on talk radio and over the internet, but candidates and mainstream news were not able to respond until the following week.

-A slight basis in the truth


As I learned as a child when trying to manipulate my parents, all effective white lies have a little bit of truth in them. As I mentioned, Fortis did indeed issue a press release, and it did indeed predict a crash of a specific sector of the market. And, of course, Fortis is known for its financial savvy.

THE OBJECTIVE OF NET RUMORS


While nobody can speak with certainty about human motivation, we can look at common themes in these rumors, which gives us a glimpse at why they are started, and why people spread.

When in graduate school in the mid 1990's, I received an urban legend email about Hillary Clinton's involvement in a murderous Black Panther gang during her law school years. We knew the story was false, but I decided to assemble a research team to try to track down the original source of the story, which was in fact very similar to the Fortis story.

After a few days of research, my team was able to pinpoint the first time the net rumor was posted. One person, an alleged professor at a state university, authored and posted the story on roughly 50 web sites in one day, then let the rumors fly.

We decided to take it a step further, and try to find a real name to go along with the pen name. This is usually not possible, but since the author identified himself with a state university, we made dozens of phone calls to the university until we tracked down the author. The poster was a 40-something janitor at the state university (not a professor), a self-identified Rush Limbaugh fan, who was fired for exposing himself to female students. We subsequently learned that he had been banned from several web sites for posting nude photos of himself in discussion boards as well. *(We still have some of these nude photos - feel free to contact me and I'll share them, although I warn you, they are not pretty.)

We typically don't think of urban legends as a tool for right-wing, regressive thinkers. But in many cases, fear appears to be a central theme. The reader is encouraged to fear *everything*, even the most mundane of daily activities (i.e., a flyer on your window). Lack of fear will leave you susceptible to being ripped off, carjacked, murdered, etc.

Fear-based stories have been used throughout history to manipulate children, to keep people paralyzed from enacting social change, to prevent action and activism, and to prevent change. Fear of racial minorities, for example, keeps us divided and prevents us from uniting for change.

Fear also keeps us focused on protecting ourselves, our homes, our loved ones, our families...and takes our focus away from systemic problems, from the environment, from our larger communities, from our brothers and sisters in other parts of the world, and it certainly keeps us unaware of the ripple effects of our actions (and the actions of our country). For example, if we are preoccupied with fears of being carjacked at the gas station, we certainly do not have any time or energy to question the logic or ethics of our invasion and occupation of Iraq.

I have often said that while fear sells better, hope lasts longer. The lesson to be learned, of course, is to be weary of any information, regardless of the source, that tries to scare you into non-action. The world needs our hope and our activism. To quote the articulate George W Bush: "Fool me once, shame on ... shame on you. Fool me twice, shame on... if fooled... if you're fooled, you can't get fooled again."






Authors Website: http://BooksforthePlanet.org

Authors Bio: Paul Haughey is the director of Books for the Planet, a not for profit organization which supports literacy, the environment, and social responsibility through education and programs. Its programs promote reform and environmental practices in the publishing industry, and helps libraries, businesses, schools, publishers, and other organizations develop recycling programs for their books, literature, and other items. Books for the Planet has recycled over 1 million books, and has built libraries for underprivileged communites in the US and abroad. Its board of directors includes a varied and impressive array of experts from a variety of fields. Books for the Planet founder, Paul Haughey, is an educator, consultant, author, speaker, and has received numerous awards for his writings, speeches, leadership, and his environmental activism.
Back

Snuffysmith
CREDIT BUBBLE BULLETIN
Froth comes off latte economy
Starbucks' decision to close 600 stores and fire 12,000 employees is just the start of a restructuring of the US economy. The consequences of years of over-investment in consumption-based infrastructure and the hollowing out of manufacturing capacity will now become increasingly and painfully evident.
Doug Noland looks at the previous week's events each Monday.
Snuffysmith
THE MOGAMBO GURU
From the bad to the really sinister
The grim facts of what happened to retirement funds in the first half will soon be hitting letter-boxes around the US and elsewhere. And that will be the year's good news as even more sinister events, really sinister, are yet to unfold.
Snuffysmith
Iron grip
The George W Bush administration's decision to approve a Rio Tinto-BHP Billiton combination is a terrible public policy decision, further strengthening an oligopolistic mining market whose recent 85% hike in iron ore prices will likely fuel inflation and further undermine economic activity. - Thomas I Palley
Snuffysmith
How to stop the Great Crash of '08
Snuffysmith
TIPS Flunk Inflation Test as Gasoline, Groceries Overtake Government's CPI Treasury Inflation Protected Securities aren't living up to their name for bond investors who say they can't trust the way the U.S. government calculates the rising cost of consumer goods.

Profits in U.S. Probably Dropped on Credit Woes, Led by Citigroup, Merrill Profits at U.S. companies probably shrank for the fourth consecutive quarter, the longest losing streak since 2002, as Citibank Inc. and Merrill Lynch & Co. suffered more losses from the collapse of the mortgage market.

U.S. Stock-Index Futures Gain; Ford, General Motors, General Electric Rise U.S. stock-index futures rose as a drop in oil prices lifted automakers and share valuations in the Standard & Poor's 500 Index were at the cheapest since April.

Vacancies at Neighborhood Malls Increase to 13-Year High, Reis Study Shows Vacancies at U.S. neighborhood and community shopping centers rose in the second quarter to a 13- year high, while vacancies at larger, regional malls were at their highest level since 2002, research firm Reis Inc. said.

Snuffysmith
G-whatever,
China is here

The voice of Beijing will be heard at the Group of Eight gathering in Japan of the world's so-called leading countries, if only in side discussions. Yet the present and future size of its economy and growing role in world affairs make China's presence unavoidable, to the extent that the very relevance of the G-8 is open to doubt. - Francesco Sisci

THE BEAR'S LAIR
A tale of two downturns
Sliding home prices in Britain are just the start of a plunge into a recession that will be deeper than that facing the United States and which will prefigure the demise of Britain as a global financial center. As the positive parts of Margaret Thatcher's legacy disintegrate, her mistakes are returning to haunt the country in ever-more terrible form. - Martin Hutchinson

Greed and dogma
fertilize food crisis

Soaring food prices reflect the transformation of agriculture from a primarily local activity to a global business. When agricultural policy is made by international financial institutions with market fundamentalist policies and by big agribusiness whose primary concern is their own bottom line, it is a recipe for disaster.

Labor back in the picture
The length and scale of present energy price increases threaten to start altering the profitability and desirability of marginal production processes. That will increasingly force a rethink of the balance between capital and labor. - Max Fraad Wolff
Snuffysmith
THE MOGAMBO GURU
Purchasing power blown away
Anyone sold a retirement plan by some fancy-suited sharpie must be looking at share prices with horror, even as central bankers inflate currencies at ever-more alarming rates and blow away whatever value is remaining. Investment for the long term? Losers all!
CREDIT BUBBLE BULLETIN
Froth comes off latte economy
Starbucks' decision to close 600 stores and fire 12,000 employees is just the start of a restructuring of the US economy. The consequences of years of over-investment in consumption-based infrastructure and the hollowing out of manufacturing capacity will now become increasingly and painfully evident.
Snuffysmith
Pending U.S. Home Resales Fell 4.7% in May, More Than Economists Forecast Americans signed fewer contracts to buy previously owned homes in May for a third month in four, a sign house prices have yet to touch bottom.

Fed's Wall Street Lending May Keep It From Raising Interest Rate This Year The Federal Reserve may hold off on its first interest-rate increase since 2006 until policy makers judge that financial markets are stable enough to allow the central bank to withdraw its lending backstop for Wall Street.

G-8 Leaders Say Rising Oil, Commodity Prices Pose Risk to Global Economy Group of Eight leaders said rising oil and food costs pose a ``serious challenge'' to the global economy, indicating inflation has become their primary concern.

U.K. Faces `Serious' Recession Risks as Services Slow, Business Lobby Says Sales of services and manufactured goods in the U.K. fell in the second quarter, posing ``serious risks'' that the economy will tumble into a recession, the British Chambers of Commerce said.

Snuffysmith
Credits in a
swirl of insanity

From dumb to pure moronic, things can hardly get more stupid than proposals to give tax credits to folk in the US who cannot afford to buy homes to buy homes. So they spend the money, get it back, spend the money, get it back - all to save the banks that should not have lent it in the first place! Utterly freaking mad!!
CREDIT BUBBLE BULLETIN
Froth comes off latte economy
Starbucks' decision to close 600 stores and fire 12,000 employees is just the start of a restructuring of the US economy. The consequences of years of over-investment in consumption-based infrastructure and the hollowing out of manufacturing capacity will now become increasingly and painfully evident.
Snuffysmith
Bernanke Moves to Extend Powers Associated Press Bernanke outlined sweeping measures designed to shore up mortgage lending. The proposals may give the central bank broader authority and extend its emergency credit facility program for Wall Street banks. (Text of speech) 8:56 a.m. • Paulson Touts Covered BondsDimon Says Serious Issues RemainThe Morning Brief: Fed's Evolving Role Raises Eyebrows
Snuffysmith
Stocks pull back in early trading as oil rebounds - AP (07/09/2008 08:55 AM) Crude gains ground as Iran test-fires missile - Market Watch from Dow Jones (07/09/2008 08:06 AM) Treasuries Decline as Trichet Says Inflation Risks Intensified - Bloomberg (07/09/2008 08:07 AM) Gold Advances in London as Crude Trades Higher, Dollar Weakens - Bloomberg (07/09/2008 08:06 AM)
Snuffysmith
Bernanke Floats Bigger Fed Role - WSJ ($) (07/09/2008 05:46 AM)
Fed ready to extend bank aid
- FT ($) (07/08/2008 08:38 PM)
Fed Sees Turmoil Persisting Deep Into Next Year
- NY Times (07/09/2008 05:26 AM)
Heavy credit card use boosts consumer borrowing in May
- Chicago Tribune (07/09/2008 05:38 AM)
Consumer Spending Slide Killing Madison Avenue - N.Y. Post (07/09/2008 05:44 AM)
Weak economy forces festivals to rethink, cancel - Chicago Tribune (07/09/2008 05:40 AM)
Snuffysmith
US hopes of housing recovery subside - FT ($) (07/08/2008 08:46 PM)
Hedge Funds Fell 0.75%, Worst First-Half Performance - Bloomberg (07/09/2008 05:21 AM)
SEC Says Debt-Rating Firms Sacrificed Quality for Profit - WSJ ($) (07/09/2008 05:50 AM)
Study Finds Flawed Practices at Ratings Firms - NY Times (07/09/2008 05:27 AM)
Federal regulators prepare to tighten mortgage rules
- LA Times (07/09/2008 05:37 AM)
Snuffysmith
From The Bad To The Really Sinister

By The Mogambo Guru

The Plunge Protection Team (composed of the US Federal Reserve, the Treasury and bank insiders) tried to drive the stock markets up on Monday, June 30 - to make those account statements look not quite as bad, and, hopefully, prevent people from dumping all of their stock and bond holdings in a desperate attempt to save something before the whole idiotic, fiat-currency, unlimited-fractional-banking thing just collapses. Continue

Snuffysmith
Foreclosures Rose 53% in June, Bank Seizures Triple: U.S. foreclosure filings rose 53 percent in June from a year earlier and bank repossessions rose the most on record as deteriorating property values and higher rates on adjustable mortgages forced more people to give up their homes.

Fannie, Freddie `Insolvent' After Losses, Poole Says : Fannie Mae shares tumbled 13 percent yesterday in New York to the lowest level in almost 14 years.

Crisis wipes $1 trillion from financial stocks: U.S. financial companies have lost more than $1 trillion in value this year, and yet another decline on Monday shows concerns aren't going away soon.

Bernanke, Paulson outline strategy to make working class pay for Wall Street crisis: In speeches delivered Tuesday, Federal Reserve Board Chairman Ben Bernanke and Treasury Secretary Henry Paulson outlined the ruthless class policy being carried out to place the burden for the financial and housing crisis on the backs of working people.

Snuffysmith
CHAN AKYA
And now, for Fannie and Freddie
The US government, faced with a possible failure of mortgage guarantors Fannie Mae and Freddie Mac, is looking to once again prop up defunct institutions instead of giving up the ghost on such entities. The markets may welcome such efforts, but the implications for the ultimate credit quality of the government are negative.

MARKET RAP
Bounces and tightropes
Several of Asia's most important exchanges are flirting with key resistance levels, positions that could stretch nerves in the period ahead, given the falls that threaten.
Snuffysmith
Jaws close in
on Bernanke

The plunge of US home-loan agencies Fannie Mae and Freddie Mac into the arms of a government-funded rescue may have killed the likelihood of an interest rate increase in the near future. That would mean the death of US Federal Reserve chairman Ben Bernanke's credibility as an inflation fighter. - Julian Delasantellis

THE BEAR'S LAIR
Financial collapse edges closer
Some sort of life-support system will almost certainly be instituted to pull Fannie Mae and Freddie Mac out of their Bear Stearns-like death spiral. That will not necessarily prevent a financial meltdown of the US financial system. Such a total collapse is a contingency that should now be planned for. - Martin Hutchinson
Snuffysmith
THE MOGAMBO GURU
Retirement cash put to work
Hauling money out of your retirement funds prematurely is a never, never thing to do. Unless you look at the falling returns on those funds, look at the declining dollar, look at inflation, look at the price of gold and do the sums. Getting your hands on that cash now may be the best decision you could make.
CREDIT BUBBLE BULLETIN
Just the facts
The latest twist in the US housing-finance crisis saw the government pledging support for Fannie Mae and Freddie Mac after their shares tumbled, with derivatives traders treating the mortgage guarantors, ranked Aaa by credit-rating companies, as if they are rated five levels lower. (Jul 14, '08)
Snuffysmith
MARKET RAP
Bounces and tightropes
Several of Asia's most important exchanges are flirting with key resistance levels, positions that could stretch nerves in the period ahead, given the falls that threaten. (Jul 11, '08)
Snuffysmith
CHAN AKYA
And now, for
Fannie and Freddie

The US government, faced with a possible failure of mortgage guarantors Fannie Mae and Freddie Mac, is looking to once again prop up defunct institutions instead of giving up the ghost on such entities. The markets may welcome such efforts, but the implications for the ultimate credit quality of the government are negative. (Jul 11, '08)
Snuffysmith
The Perils of Henry Paulson - Vincent Reinhart, Washington Post

End the Mortgage Duopoly - Gerald O'Driscoll, Wall Street Journal

The Future of Fannie and Freddie - Editorial, New York Times

The Saga of Fannie and Freddie - Larry Kudlow, RealClearPolitics

Fannie Mae and Freddie Mac on Trial - Gerard Baker, Times of London

The Bailout Will Be a Bargain - Daniel Gross, Slate

U.S. Economic Discontent Well Founded - Irwin Stelzer, Weekly Standard

The Depressive Realism Economy - Arnold Kling, The American

GE Can't Shake Off Its Financial Stigma - David Pauly, Bloomberg

Slim Pickins from T. Boone - Editorial, Investor's Business Daily

The CPI Understates True Inflation - John Tamny, RealClearMarkets

Don't Forget Government Failure - Brian Wesbury, FT Portfolios
Snuffysmith
How Far Will Housing Prices Fall? - Mark Vitner, Wachovia
Fannie/Freddie: A Sad Day for Taxpayers - Chris Ciovacco, Ciavocco Cap.
A Nuanced Inflation Shock - S. Jen & L. Bindelli, Morgan Stanley
Fannie/Freddie and the 2% Equity Solution - John Hussman, Hussman
Snuffysmith
Is The Fed’s Mission Becoming Too Big? - Real Time Economics

Citi + BoA Losses = Rest of U.S. Banking's Value - Infectious Greed

When Will the I.P.O. Drought End? - DealBook

The Perils of Fannie and Freddie, Part II - Economics Unbound
Snuffysmith
How Far Will Housing Prices Fall? - Mark Vitner, Wachovia

Fannie/Freddie: A Sad Day for Taxpayers - Chris Ciovacco, Ciavocco Cap.

A Nuanced Inflation Shock - S. Jen & L. Bindelli, Morgan Stanley

Fannie/Freddie and the 2% Equity Solution - John Hussman, Hussman
Snuffysmith
The Saga of Fannie and Freddie - Larry Kudlow, RealClearPolitics

Mortgage Scandal a Bipartisan Affair - Froma Harrop, Providence Journal

Economic Discontent is Well Founded - Irwin Stelzer, Weekly Standard
Snuffysmith
The Next Great Deflation? Phill Gramm got it right, says William Greider, or rather half-right. We don’t have an entire nation of whiners, but we do have a very vocal group of them. And they get what they want. To wit, our money.

It is Wall Street — the financial titans and big-money bankers, the most important investors and worldwide creditors who are scared witless by events. These folks are in full-flight panic and screaming for mercy from Washington. Their cries were answered by the massive federal bailout of Fannie Mae and Freddy Mac, the endangered mortgage companies. When the monied interests whined, they made themselves heard by dumping the stocks of these two quasi-public private corporations, threatening to collapse the two financial firms like the investor “run” that wiped out Bear Stearns in March. The real distress of the banks and brokerages and major investors is that they cannot unload the rotten mortgage securities packaged by Fannie Mae and banks sold worldwide. Wall Street’s preferred solution: dump the bad paper on the rest of us, the unwitting American taxpayers.

Greider is the go-to guy on the social impact of economic events, and particularly on the Fed. His magnificent book Secrets of the Temple: How the Federal Reserve Runs the Country is typically accurate and detailed, yet oriented to the big picture and philosophically consistent. He knows what he’s going for, he doesn’t lose track and wander about, and he’s solid on the details along the way.

Though by no means without hope, Greider doesn’t seem to be optimistic about the near term for the American economy. A good deal of the problem comes from the coöperative relationship between the Democrats and Republicans, leaving no one to advocate for the people against Wall Street.

We are witnessing a momentous event — the great deflation of Wall Street — and it is far from over. The crash of IndyMac is just the beginning. More banks will fail, so will many more debtors. The crisis has the potential to transform American politics because, first it destroys a generation of ideological bromides about free markets, and, second, because it makes visible the ugly power realities of our deformed democracy. Democrats and Republicans are bipartisan in this crisis because they have colluded all along over thirty years in creating the unregulated financial system and mammoth mega-banks that produced the phony valuations and deceitful assurances. The federal government protects the most powerful interests from the consequences of their plundering. It prescribes “market justice” for everyone else.
Deflation is a word that doesn’t get used in conversation very often, so it can sound abstract. But it’s not. Discussing the Fed’s attempts to calm the panic, Greider says:




…Read on
Snuffysmith
The next big wave is breaking
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Hauling money out of your retirement funds prematurely is a never, never thing to do. Unless you look at the falling returns on those funds, look at the declining dollar, look at inflation, look at the price of gold and do the sums. Getting your hands on that cash now may be the best decision you could make. (Jul 15, '08)

Jaws close in on Bernanke
The plunge of US home-loan agencies Fannie Mae and Freddie Mac into the arms of a government-funded rescue may have killed the likelihood of an interest rate increase in the near future. That would mean the death of US Federal Reserve chairman Ben Bernanke's credibility as an inflation fighter. - Julian Delasantellis (Jul 15,
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US inflation in biggest monthly jump since 1982
US consumer prices rose by 1.1% in June, the biggest monthly jump since 1982, as food and energy continued to raise the cost of living for many Americans, justifying deep concern about inflation among policymakers
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Status Report on the Collapse of the U.S. Economy- by Richard C. Cook - 2008-07-16
Snuffysmith
The Financial Tsunami: The Next Big Wave is Breaking Fannie Mae, Freddie Mac and US Mortgage Debt- by F. William Engdahl - 2008-07-15
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