From Albany Project

New York State Senate Power Rankings - Week Four

Every week, I try to keep a theme alive throughout the power rankings. One week we had the Working Families Party endorsements and last week we focused on ActBlue pages. This week the theme is no doubt Joe Bruno's retirement.

One might wonder why Bruno's retirement is so important even with him gone. The fact he is gone speaks volumes. Bruno is the guy who was the face of the Republican Senate and asked a number of his fellow GOP senators not to pursue other opportunities (or not to retire) in order to preserve the GOP majority in the Senate. Now, with Bruno out of the picture, there are a lot of questions left unanswered. Who will follow in his footsteps? Will younger senators like Sen. Andrew Lanza pursue other opportunities? Will the GOP hold onto their majority with Bruno gone?

All of those questions will be answered as we move on. But for now, let's enjoy another week of the power rankings.

(1) James Seward ® versus Don Barber (D) (SD-51): Phillip met Barber earlier this week and had a lot of great things to say. Barber was in New York City for a fundraiser and received a great reception. I remember seeing Barber a few months ago at the DRC convention and he was impressive. It would appear he has only gotten better and he is enjoying a great wave of support. (Last week's ranking: 5th) Race Ranking: Leans Republican

(2) Caesar Trunzo ® versus Brian Foley/Jimmy Dahroug (D) (SD-3): Trunzo could be impacted by Bruno's retirement, as I talked about earlier this week. Trunzo is in his eighties and is one of the top candidates for retirement now that Bruno has stepped aside. On the Democratic side, Foley and Dahroug are on different sides of the marriage equality debate with Dahroug supporting it and Foley having "reservations" about the issue, citing religious reasons. This will be a tight primary battle. (Last week's ranking: 2nd) Race Ranking: Toss Up

(3) Frank Padavan ® versus James Gennaro (D) (SD-11): Padavan was the focus of protesters last week outside of his office regarding a foreclosure bill. Padavan's seat was one of the most vulnerable before Bruno's retirement and certainly a target. Gennaro was out this week calling for tax money to help Queens flooding issues. (Last week's ranking: 1st) Race Ranking: Toss Up

(4) Serf Maltese ® versus Joseph Addabbo/Albert Baldeo (D) (SD-15): It probably isn't likely that Maltese would retire, but Maltese will be turning 76 this year. There are other seats that are being targeted, but this is no doubt the one that Republicans are most in danger of losing. Now with Bruno gone, it will be much harder to defend this seat. Addabbo will be a serious challenger to Maltese and Baldeo, who narrowly lost to Maltese in 2006, will give it another whirl also. (Last week's ranking: 3rd) Race Ranking: Leans Democratic

(5) James Alesi ® versus David Nachbar (D) (SD-55): Nachbar came out with his ActBlue page this week and has already raised $7,010 from that page. He also teamed up with SD-56 Democratic candidate Rick Dollinger to criticize the Republican Senate for failing to deliver on important legislation like property taxes. Nachbar will be a formidable foe for Alesi. (Last week's ranking: 6th) Race Ranking: Toss Up

For rankings six through ten, come over the fold.

robert.harding :: New York State Senate Power Rankings - Week Four
(6) Joe Robach ® versus Rick Dollinger (D) (SD-56): Robach, thanks to the Bruno retirement, had to answer questions about his future. Robach confirmed he was going to seek reelection, despite the tide turning towards the Democrats. Dollinger joined Nachbar (see the fifth place race this week) in criticizing the Republican Senate for not getting critical legislation passed by the end of session. (Last week's ranking: 4th) Race Ranking: Toss Up
(7) DEMOCRATIC PRIMARY - Martin Connor versus Daniel Squadron (SD-25): Connor and Squadron ran into each other a couple of times this week. I'm not sure the Bruno retirement has any impact on this race except for the fact that Bruno's retirement brought the end to one of the key parts of the establishment in Albany. A primary win by Squadron would bring an end to Connor's tenure in Albany, which included a stint as minority leader. (Last week's ranking: 9th) Race Ranking: Safe Democratic (Leans to Connor)

(8) OPEN SEAT - Mike Ranzenhofer ® versus Michele Iannello/Joe Mesi/Dan Ward (D) (SD-61): You will have to go back some time ago when Ranzenhofer was holding a fundraiser and Joe Bruno showed up. That was seen as Bruno anointing Ranzenhofer as the Republican candidate in SD-61. This seat is one the Democrats can win anyway. Mesi will be embarking on an "Action For Western New York" tour to discuss jobs and economic development. Iannello and Mesi have been seen throughout the district at parades and canvassing. Dan Ward has been quiet, but is still in the race. (Last week's ranking: 7th) Race Ranking: Leans Democratic

(9) Kemp Hannon ® versus Kristen McElroy (D) (SD-6): Last week this was a race to watch. This week the race in SD-6 cracks the top ten. McElroy is being lined up with candidates like Brian Foley in SD-3 and joined David Nachbar (SD-55) and Rick Dollinger (SD-56) in coming out to call on their opponents to support certain legislation. McElroy seems to be worth the hype - at least for now. No signs regarding a possible Hannon retirment. He's only 62 (young for a GOP senator) but he has served in Albany for over 30 years (he served from 1977 to 1989 in the Assembly, then 1989 to present in the Senate). (Last week ranking: Race To Watch) Race Ranking: Leans Republican

(10) George Winner ® versus John Tonello (D) (SD-53): Winner's name was being tossed around as someone who would possibly retire from the Senate. That changed yesterday when he announced he would seek a third term. Tonello comes with an interesting approach. He preaches a nonpartisan style to governance. That could be exactly what wins in SD-53. (Last week's ranking: 8th) Race Ranking: Safe Republican

RACES TO WATCH
SD-9: Dean Skelos ® versus Roy Simon (D): I interviewed Simon earlier this week and will be posting that on Monday. Obviously, Skelos just received more power and more notoriety when he was promoted this week by his colleagues thanks to Bruno's retirement. But that might help Simon in his efforts.

SD-43: Joe Bruno's retirement creates an open seat in SD-43. There are challengers on both sides stepping up. On the Republican side, it looks like Assemblyman Roy McDonald will step up to the plate. On the Democratic side, Brian Premo was already running but may face a primary challenge from Joanne Yepsen, Val Keehn and Mike Russo.

SD-44: Hugh Farley ® versus Fred Goodman/B.K. Keramati (D): Farley's name is being mentioned as a possible retiree from the Senate thanks to Bruno's exit. If that happens, SD-44 becomes another interesting upstate seat that could be targeted.

SD-54: Michael Nozzolio ® versus Paloma Capanna (D): I didn't get a chance to meet Capanna, but I am still looking forward to that. She is an intriguing candidate. Nozzolio won't retire, but he will face his first reelection campaign ever when he and Capanna go head-to-head in November.

SD-59: REPUBLICAN PRIMARY - Dale Volker ® versus David DiPietro ®: This is an interesting primary. Volker is volatie, but apparently so is DiPietro. DiPietro was arraigned last night after being accused of harassing a woman by saying to her, "I want you to know what a big piece of sh-t you are." Two peas in a pod, it would appear.

That's the power rankings for this week. We will be back next week with a new theme and a new listing.