http://latimesblogs.latimes.com/washington...p-poll-upd.html

Gallup poll update: Barack Obama and John McCain essentially dead even

We've paid a lot of attention to Gallup polls this week, in the wake of seemingly contradictory results by the most-famed brand name in gauging public opinion. By one Gallup measure, John McCain was up; Barack Obama had a solid lead in a different survey by the company and a narrower advantage among a third sample group.

Today, the Gallup daily tracking poll -- the rolling average of voter interviews conducted, in this case, on Tuesday, Wednesday and Thursday (correction: Monday, Tuesday and Wednesday) -- shows the race at almost a dead heat. Obama had a statistically insignificant one-percentage-point lead over McCain, 45% to 44%.

A week ago, in the midst of his much-heralded overseas trip, Obama began a spurt in the tracking polls -- on Sunday, he reached his peak with a nine-point margin, 49% to 40%. But since then, his edge has steadily declined.

Writes Gallup editor Frank Newport:

"The story of the election through the summer months has been a close race that simply does not seem to want to change. Obama has generally been in the lead, and it is significant that McCain has never held even a 1-point lead among registered voters in Gallup Poll Daily tracking since Obama clinched the Democratic nomination in early June. Still, the relative stability of the race, even in the aftermath of such a high-visibility event as Obama's foreign trip (coupled, of course, with the McCain campaign's vigorous efforts to defuse its impact) continues to suggest that it may be the conventions in late August and early September that will offer the next potential timeframe for significant and/or sustained change."

Perhaps, but the Ticket and others will be watching the track closely over the next couple of days to see if what may end up as the most-discussed ad of recent vintage -- the McCain camp's spot tying, improbably to many, Obama with Paris Hilton and Britney Spears -- has a clear effect on either candidate's standing.

------------------

For those who study politics and don't have a horse in the race...well, we are fascinated.

Yep, unbelieveable...then again it is believeable considering Americans voted GW in for a second term.

I totally agree. What were we thinking?

(edit add: Not us...but America as a whole.)

Polls are lying

Gallup was caught yesterday, thereby negating Gallup from all consideration

Anyhoo, they want us to think its close, so when they steal it there will be no uproar

That plus the fact these polls don't include cell phone usage, and all people under 50 now use cells and not landlines

So if you take out all the voters, that is what you get


HOWEVER- CNN said it was 51 to 42 Obama.

and Obama leads the electoral vote by OVER 100

300 to 192

dead even? Like bull

Well, according to you, Obama is not ready for the presidency....I imagine you'll be pleased if McCain wins the WH. After all, he's got all those "scars" to prove his worthiness for the presidency.

Imagine...or assume...what you like...it seems the forte of the "believer".

I'm getting ready on a personal basis, because I believe personal
responsibility will be the base during the new order. BWTF do I know?

Just an old man...being left behind in the New World Order. Tally-Ho!

Not that the polls even matter at this point, but I don't believe they are anywhere near dead even.

I believe what I see much more than the polls.

When it all comes down in November and people are faced with casting their ballot they are going to confront two different realities...

race and economics.

While race may effect the votes of some who "won't vote for no black man"... I believe more are going to look and say... "damned if I'm going to keep going down this same road for four more years".

Polls at this stage may be interesting, but polls won't mean anything until after Labor Day.

So it's vote for a black man or George Bush? I understand the campaign rhetoric...but don't buy it.



Damned newspaper men...they don't understand the campaign rhetoric. What's wrong with you?

He is NOTHING

just a figment of your imagination

Why support a crooked criminal?

Guess you don't care McCain bilked millions of poor regular people

Long as the elite got richer.
Either that or McCain was just plain stupid and more incompetent than Heck of a Job Brownie.
Hey, but he should pick that idiot HP lady who made something like 42 million in severance, while throwing all the jobs overseas and shafting the little guy
longst as she got rich...That's McCain's America. Rich get richer.

http://www.nytimes.com/2008/08/01/science/...html?ref=dining

Drugs Offer Promise of Fitness Without Effort
New York Times - 4 hours ago

Cheryl Senter/AP By NICHOLAS WADE

Can you enjoy the benefits of exercise without the pain of exertion? The answer may one day be yes - just take a pill that tricks the muscles into thinking they have been working out furiously.

Hey...this is election-year politics...all we have to do is swallow a pill!
We don't have to tighten belts, or suffer, just take the pill! THE NYT says so!

the gallup anyhow was proven to be fixed

Here is more realistic one OBAMA 51 MCCAIN 44 - Obama streaks over the 50% mark
http://blogs.usatoday.com/onpolitics/2008/...poll-obama.html
CNN poll: Obama up 7, McCain criticisms aren't sticking
A new CNN/Opinion Research Corporation poll today shows Democrat Barack Obama leading Republican John McCain 51%-44% among registered voters. CNN says that's similar to Obama's 5-percentage-point lead last month and shows his high-profile trip overseas did not shake up the race.

The poll, billed as the first to be taken since Obama got home Saturday, was conducted Sunday through Tuesday. It included interviews with 1,041 adults, of whom 914 were registered voters. The margin of error for both groups was plus or minus 3 percentage points.

------------------


for those that don't know math, if someone is over 50%, then the other person can't be tied.
d'uh.
Guess we all can't be raw number people.
Others like to believe the tooth fairy still exists.

d'oh.

Sometimes in a society as complex as ours, personal responsibility isn't enough...the government needs to step in and lend a helping hand.

These are the two real issues that many will be facing... not everyone... but many.

There will be many who vote for McCain simply because he's not black. McCain is basically BushCo status quo as far as policies and plans are concerned. Sure he has other personal attributes which will draw votes, but people are faced with a basic continuation of BushCo policies in McCain... and imho most people are not going to want 4 more years of the same old same old. So... the key with many on the fence voters will be the issues of race vs economics come election day. Will the very substantial block of racist voters decide that the need for change outweighs their racial bias... or not. Just the way I see it playing out.

I think we'll see race being made into more of an issue as time goes by and the election draws near. After all Rove is in the background now... huh ? Does anyone actually believe that they won't try to play race to their benefit ? The only thing is whether they can pull it off while trying to deflect it to make it appear that they are trying to not make it an issue. We're already seeing it take shape now.

Now all we need is a pill that tricks the mind into believing we've put in a full day of work and another pill to trick the employer's mind into believing it.

In politics its real easy to see who is winning. The one who is going negitive is the one who is loosing. BTY when I viewed McCain's negitive ads I just laughed. He is not doing it very well. Obama will win PA by around 8%. I think voters have made up their minds at least in PA.

I just bought 4 more hi-caps for my Glock, and a 1000 rounds of .45 ACP.
Batten down the hatches boys and girls, we're in for a bumpy ride. It's bunker mode time...
One of these two wannabees is gonna run the show!

He NEEDS Hillary on the ticket! There are still 18 million reasons why. No one else can get that many people to the polls.

Even including the questionable validity of Gallup's polling, as of 07/30/08 the average of all major polls still show Obama ahead:

You know what guys, this may make sense or not. I will lead you down a very quick
trip on memory lane. I remember being on the 2004 Kerry Forum. The racing polls
this way and that drove some of us nuts. I remember it well. So, I don't care what
the polls say. If you remember they went every way but loose during the last
election, which had even less emotion then this one. (As if that would be possible.)

I prefer Real Clear Politics to Pollster...
8/1/08 3:24 a.m.

http://www.realclearpolitics.com/

Election 2008 Obama McCain Spread
RCP National Average 46.8 43.9 Obama +2.9

Battleground States Obama McCain Spread
Colorado 47.0 45.3 Obama +1.7
Virginia 47.3 46.3 Obama +1.0
Missouri 45.0 47.5 McCain +2.5
Michigan 46.3 42.0 Obama +4.3
Ohio 46.0 45.5 Obama +0.5
Florida 45.5 46.0 McCain +0.5

I'd agree, if you want to say one is ahead...it's Obama...
but talk about thin...I lean to "dead even"...because of undecideds.

mnt is also correct, polls will meander...but us politco-junkies jus can't hep it.

she is OUT OUT OUT OUT OUT OUT OUT OUT OUT of the running

THANK GOD -FOR THAT!!!!

Didn't you see my thread earlier today?

Hillary is giving the Keynote on Tuesday of the convention
MEANING SHE AIN'T GIVING THE VP SPEECH MONDAY!!!!


YEEEEEEEEEEEEEEEEEEEEEEEEEEEEEEEEEEEEEEEEEEHAWWWWWWWWWWWWWWWWWWWWWWWWWWWWWWWWWWW
WWWWWWWWWWWWWWWWWWWW

Now Hillary can't party like its 1999!

(cue the music...Ding Dong...................................the..........................(from the wizard of oz)................................

Kerry won with over 320 electoral votes

Don't you remember?

It was stolen!

if they is going to steal it, they will. Doesn't matter who is running.

The polls are a fraud so people don't get too out of whack when they steal it a 3rd time

(see many prior threads)

McCain has now moved past Obama as the candidate most likely to get my vote (behind Barr). Wonder why?

pretty stupid reason to base your future on me(though my ego is getting inflated, I have power????).

BTW- those polls that show it closer than it is, do not individually poll for Bob Barr the former elephant....

when theys do, Obama leads by double digits.

Groovy, eh?

Go vote for someone who will ban abortion, and stop gay marriage and civil unions. Be my guest.

Obama will win Texas without your vote and 450 electoral votes.

btw- memo to myself

during the convention-
no need to watch Tuesday, unless I need a real sleep inducer.

Hmmmmm...keynote speaker...at the Democratic Convention...
does that mean she'll get the nomination in 2012?

I agree exactly with your assessment, magic. I was on that forum as well......just not quite as active as many others. I was there and it was definitely "muy loco" as it has been here.

If someone chooses to refer to polls, though, it's unwise to refer to only one, especially in light of the Gallup controversy. That's why I like Pollster.com. It considers all reputable polls. It's not a decision-maker for me by any stretch, but it's a good way to see the big picture.

If data of this type is a determining factor for some, the whole must equal the sum of its parts. An individual poll just won't get it.....

It is time for old people like us to quit whining and start thinking about the future, even the part that doesn't include us, because it will include our children and grandchildren.

Nostalgia is for the old folks home, not the voting booth.

That is what I "believe".

Is there a pill that makes people think?

Because you think McCain would be good for this country's future? Naah! Why make a decision based on something so trivial?

Sorry for the sarcasm, but if you are using Graham as a reason to decide anything...

I guess you do have power Graham. Who woulda thunk it? And look at the people who are giving you this power!

Vitamin pills might help sluggish brains.....

Just think if a couple of let's say petty sorelosers vote against what I say, that means there are millions out there who have changed their mind to AGREE with what I say, being that almost no one is
a petty soreloser.

being that I am just an average Joe common person, who's views are 100% right on the money 90% of the time, and have no agenda or professional basis in it (like others).

So if the couple of petty sorelosers say that (though in the end, if we were flies on the walls of their voting machine, betcha they will vote for Obama anyhow), the odds would be 99 to 1 Obama
(and he only needs 270 out of that.)

One reason to not be impressed by polls nationwide is, it is the electoral vote that counts, not the popular vote
Who knows the % of people in each state tallies.

That is why the electoral vote website showing about 300 to 198 lead by Obama means state by state, which is how they count.
For all we know, as proven by the phony Gallup polls, maybe next Gallup will only ask those who like McCain what their vote is.
Or maybe Gallup will remove all black voters, on the guise that the repubs are trying hard to disenfranchise all of them.

So maybe come November, we shall have only McCain fans be allowed to vote.
The levers won't work at all for Obama.

and McCain is stooped (even lower) to run King Kong type racist/sexist ads (the blondes and the dark black man).

Because some people can't move beyond what doesn't matter... like the posts on a forum or what one person's supporters or another's detractors might say... or beyond the below surface grudges they hold...

and because some would rather feel the pain and try to ease it by "getting even" in their mind when they are only hurting their own cause.

Emotion is a strange thing and that thin line between love and hate blurs rationality.

That's really reading a lot into something. I just don't like Obama. Period.

Just reading your posts...

You know,
I am still sadly inept with guns. I somehow inherited quite a few case loads of shells and heads, as well as the table to assemble shotgun and regular bullets. I learned how to make the bullets, I just haven't learned how to shoot.

I am considering selling it though.
------
As for here. I wouldn't count McCain out yet. I can't always believe what I see either, as I was shell shocked for weeks after Bush won re-election. I just couldn't believe that it could happen. So no, at this time, anything can still happen. In truth, I don't really mind who wins much now. I dislike them both, and either of them will be constrained by the mess left behind by this administration. I believe Obama's policies will do better, if he actually goes through with it. I just find him to have a penchant of taking too much credit for other's works and would distance himself from things that would make him look bad, even if it is the right thing to do.

At one point, McCain was better at sticking to his principles, but the past few years has made him tractable to the influences that he railed against before. It is a shame. Still, I think he would stick to his principles closer than Obama would to his, however, he can be honestly mistaken, which is what I see there. He is not free from controversy and scandal either. I know of Keating five among others, so I still don't see myself having a good choice.

I am stuck with the Democrat at this time. Especially due to fiscal policies. However, he does worry me still as his foreign policy still sounds interventionist. It may be a different method, but that needs to be expanded upon.

Its McCain's poicies that I dislike. He leans toward occuping Iraq for 100 years. And of course BOMB BOMB IRAN. How could anyone consider voting for this man?

I agree...although I'm amazed at my own transformation. I will swear on a stack of
bibles, or whatever, that following his speech at the convention in 2004, I would have
backed him even more then I did Kerry.

It hasn't happened. I will not be called names, any names because of it. I know
they are not true. It is not race, being liberal, Wright or Resko...It is something
else. If I ever figure it out, I will give you all my opinion. It is there.

I think I represent the average voter more then many on the forum here. I am telling
you this with real honesty. I love politics and issues, but am not close to being
as knowledgeable as many here.

There is some kind of intangible, can't quite put into words thing about it with me, too. I had a thread last week in which I explained how a very good friend of mine just said Obama is "creepy." That's about as close as I can come to it.

Creepy though is a good description of Evan Bayh...one look at him and I puke. He gives me the shivers, him and his skeletons. Something about Evan Bayh...although I do know what it is.
And I did not much like John Edwards, and lookie at what he has done... now they find he is paying the girl $15grand a month to keep her quiet...creepy
I was right on the money on him.

btw...I think I am the one who is most average here...so I dispute mtmmagic's claiming the title. Maybe its an east coast average/west coast average like who is better
Frankie Valli or Brian Wilson? Seasons or the Boys? Depends where you live.
Most average voter? Me or MtnMagic? I would bet I would win the vote, but not on this board at this time, as mostly only rightwing or moderates people are here now.So the deck would be
stacked.

Anyone who don't know the difference instantly are the same as those who voted for Bush in 2000 and said there was no difference between BushClinton & Gore.

There may be no difference between Dem party and REpub party...but there was 360degree diff. between the immorral Bushies and Clintonites, and Al Gore.

(edited to change spelling of the word his in the first line...had it spelled hiss, and gees, I love Alger Hiss, a true hero of America...to put him next to slime like Bayh...sorry Mr. Hiss(who I proudly met years ago, maybe best person ever met who was famous). A true, true, hero and patriot. America needs more people willing to do what is necessary like Mr. Hiss did.

wow- it's a small world...my thinking of Hero Alger Hiss got me to re-look at his wiki, and its interesting this passage...
We all know he was framed...and look how they framed him

SHADES OF DAN RATHER...AND THE CBS MEMO...Can one say HOLY SPIT BATMAN??? Holy Mother freakin' spit... Gottsa to pass this on (and did)...

"
Remanufactured typewriter theory
At both trials, FBI typewriter experts testified that the Baltimore documents in Chambers's possession matched samples of typing done by Priscilla Hiss on the Hiss's home typewriter in the 1930s. The Woodstock typewriter that had been owned by the Hisses at this time was presented as evidence by the defense in the trials. The defense investigators had tracked down what they believed was the family's old typewriter on their own, hoping that examination of the actual machine would point up flaws in the FBI's matching of documents. This proved not to be the case, as tests with the typewriter only seemed to confirm the FBI's analysis.

Since the trials, several apparent discrepancies have been noted in the typewriter evidence presented by the prosecution. This includes expert testimony that the typewriter presented in evidence (as Exhibit #UUU) was not the same one that produced earlier typing samples from the Hiss household,[31] expert testimony that Priscilla Hiss was not the typist of the Baltimore documents,[32] testimony by former Woodstock executives that the serial number of the Exhibit #UUU typewriter was inconsistent with the year when the Hiss typewriter was originally purchased,[33] and expert testimony that the exhibit #UUU typewriter had been tampered with in a way not consistent with professional repair work.[34] These points and others have led some Hiss defenders to theorize that the Baltimore documents were forgeries, created by first remanufacturing a typewriter to match existing samples of typed papers from the Hiss household, then using this typewriter to type the Baltimore documents. According to this theory, the remanufactured typewriter was then planted where Hiss's defense investigators would find it, and it became trial exhibit #UUU. As noted above, such "forgery by typewriter" was entirely possible for trained technicians, though this was not generally known at the time of trials.

Others have counter-argued that if the Baltimore documents were forgeries, it would be an unnecessary risk to arrange for the remanufactured typewriter to be found and introduced as evidence at the trials. The link between the Hiss's typewriter and the Baltimore documents was testified to on the basis of matching the documents to old typing samples, so the actual typewriter wasn't needed. Professor Irving Younger wrote, "To leave the counterfeit Woodstock lying about for the defense to pick up and examine would serve only to expose the whole scheme to the risk of discovery—and for no reason."[35]

In a 1976 memoir, former White House counsel John Dean alleged that President Nixon's chief counsel Charles Colson told him that Nixon had admitted in a conversation that HUAC had in fact fabricated a typewriter, saying, "We built one on the Hiss case."[36] However, Colson subsequently denied the statement.[37]"

Hope you are right. PA is an important state


McCain exaggerates. The US will only be in Iraq for 50 years. And nobody is going to bomb Iran, just rattle sabers.

(Current Obama-McCain match-up)
Gallup Tracking 07/30 - 08/01 2692 RV 44 44 Tie
Rasmussen Tracking 07/30 - 08/01 3000 LV 47 46 Obama +1.0

Senator Obama still has a comfortable lead in electorial college
predictions...but still not enough to close the deal. It's gonna be close folks.

ARE YOU LOCO???

COMFORTABLE LEAD?

HE HAS 273 IN THE SAME POLL YOU ARE CITING. And leads by 70. In other polls leads by 120 electoral votes. With some votes undecided in all of them.

You only need 270.

d'uh THE FREAKIN' RACE IS OVER. tHE POPuLar vote don't matter.

just like the sorelosers couldn't capiche that he won the delegates, Texas, Ct, Missouri, NH...

freaks.

it’s Obama 273, McCain 227. Rasmussen Markets data gives Obama a 62.9% chance of winning the White House.

d'uh...you only need 270, and Bill Clinton won with 41 percent of the vote(you know bulbous cheating bill, the worst president after Bush and Bush).

Electoral College Obama McCain Toss Ups
RCP Electoral Count 238 163 137

My source: http://www.realclearpolitics.com/

How about your's? Or, should I assume it's lunatickfringe2.0.com?

You ever play sports? It ain't over until it's over.

Unless YOU are the fat lady, because de fat lady has sung

just like the hillarysorelosers wouldn't admit she lost

she lost
so did mccain

it's over, it's over, it's over

IT'S OVER

ELECTORAL-VOTE.COM 107 ELECTORAL KISS MY A LEAD

Aug. 02

--------------------------------------------------------------------------------
Obama 316 McCain 209 Ties 13